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GOP Loses Assembly Seat Today, Dropping to 27, as San Diego’s Fletcher Becomes Independent

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 28, 2012

In a surprising move this morning, Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher (R-San Diego) became Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher (NPP-San Diego).

“I want to share with you a decision I’ve been struggling with for some time,” Fletcher said in a video released this morning. “Today I’m leaving the Republican Party, becoming an independent. In my heart, I believe it’s what’s right and what best reflects my values. I also believe it’s what’s right for our city moving forward.”

I doubt this move is one of principle; it’s more likely a move to improve his sagging poll numbers, as Fletcher is trailing in the race for Mayor of San Diego.  The San Diego mayoral vote is on June 5.  The latest polls show Councilman Carl DeMaio (R) has 24% of the vote, Congressman Bob Filner (D) has 20% of the vote, and Fletcher tied with District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis (R) with 10% of the vote each.

H/T to OC Political friend Chuck Deyoe for sending the video at 6 AM.  (Sorry for taking so long to check my email, Chuck!)

See the full video below:

Posted in State Assembly | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

AD-72: Edgar Builds Dominant Warchest, Larger Than All Opponents Combined – Even Without Using His Vast Personal Wealth

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 27, 2012

Troy Edgar, Long Pham, Travis Allen, Joe Dovinh

Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos), OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley), Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach), and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove)

In the 72nd Assembly District during the period ending March 17, Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar has built the dominant warchest in AD-72.  I cannot find any way in which Edgar does not lead the pack.  No matter how you slice it and dice it, Edgar has the most money in AD-72.

Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham, Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen, and Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (the sole Democrat other than the penniless Albert Ayala) are all well behind Edgar in every way you can calculate the campaign finance numbers.

During this period, Edgar raised $18,336.  His three opponents raised $18,611 combined, just $275 more than Edgar.

Edgar also transferred a whopping $84,399 from his Congressional campaign committee.

On top of that, Edgar made a direct contribution to his campaign of $15,025 – not a loan, but an outright contribution that he can never get refunded (FPPC regulations prohibit a candidate from ever refunding their own non-loan contributions to their own campaign committees).  This $15,025 is above the $100,000 loan Edgar made to his campaign (remember, the FPPC caps candidate loans at $100,000; anything above that can never be repaid to the candidate).

Edgar has $203,040 cash on hand (accounting for unpaid bills), which is $94,637 more cash on hand than all three of his opponents combined (accounting for unpaid bills).  If candidate loans were paid off, Edgar still has $103,040 cash on hand, as compared to the next largest warchest, which is Allen’s at $2,467, followed by Dovinh’s $402, and Pham’s debt of $45,466.

At this point, it is unclear if Edgar’s chief rival will be Allen or Pham.  Pham loaned his campaign $100,000, but unlike most candidates who use candidate loans to pad their campaign finance figures, he has actually spent a substantial portion of that loan.  Allen only loaned his campaign $50,000, and has not yet spent it yet.

By virtue of having “Democrat” after his name on the ballot, Dovinh will likely advance to November to face off against one of the Republican trio.

For visual learners:

Candidate Cash on Hand
(COH)
12/31/2011
Contributions Candidate
Contributions
Other Income Transfers Candidate
Loans
Unpaid
Bills
Expenditures Cash on Hand
(COH)
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
& Loans
Edgar (R) $0 $18,336 $15,025 $0 $84,399 $100,000 $4,000 $10,721 $207,040 $203,040 $103,040
Allen (R) $0 $8,505 $0 $0 $0 $50,000 $6,038 $0 $58,505 $52,467 $2,467
Pham (R) $90,485 $3,571 $0 $12 $0 $100,000 $5,920 $33,614 $60,454 $54,534 -$45,466
Dovinh (D) $3,420 $6,535 $0 $0 $0 $1,000 $317 $8,236 $1,719 $1,402 $402
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.
Pham and Dovinh’s loans were made in the previous reporting period of 7/1/2011-12/31/2011.
Democrat Albert Ayala did not have a campaign committee, which means he raised less than $1,000, as reaching that threshold forces a candidate to form a campaign committee.

.
The Edgar warchest is dominant at this point in the fundraising game.  Unless his opponents start shelling out more of their own cash or achieve some sort of fundraising boom, they’re in serious trouble.  (Although if they start shelling out their own cash, the multimillionaire Edgar should be able to easily match that.)  The primary election is 10 weeks from today.

Posted in 72nd Assembly District, Fundraising | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

AD-74: Mansoor Roars on Fundraising, Rush Loans Campaign $100K, Daigle Only Adds $17K

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 26, 2012

Allan Mansoor, Leslie Daigle, Robert Rush

Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R-Costa Mesa), Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R-Newport Beach), and Businessman Robert Rush (D-Newport Beach)

Long accused of being a poor fundraiser, Republican Assemblyman Allan Mansoor‘s campaign finance reports show the donors are beginning to rally around Mansoor.

During the January 1-March 17 fundraising period, Mansoor raised $61,135 in contributions and dropped another $30,000 into his campaign warchest, growing it by $91,135.  During the same period, Republican Newport Beach City Councilwoman Leslie Daigle raised $17,577 in contributions.

Surprisingly, Democrat Robert Rush loaned his campaign $99,999.  He received three contributions during this time, all of which were at the maximum legal limit of $3,900.  The three were from The Bascom Group in Irvine and two of the principals from that same business.

Mansoor spent $32,477, Daigle spent $29,324, and Rush spent $7,661.

Mansoor now has $115,371 cash on hand, Daigle has $107,956 cash on hand, and Rush has $104,038 cash on hand.  The money race is too close for Daigle; she needs to have a dominating cash lead to even have hope of making it to November.

There’s no way to quantify this, as it’s more art than science, but ultimately, Mansoor does not even need to outspend Daigle.  The “California Assemblyman” ballot designation is worth probably $200,000 in a primary.  Daigle will need to outspend Mansoor roughly 2-to-1 to unseat him, and I just don’t see that happening.  Similarly, Rush does not need to outspend Daigle.  The word “Democrat” after Rush’s name is worth probably $200,000 in the AD-74 primary.  Having the word “Republican” is worth probably $300,000 in AD-74, but that’s split between Mansoor and Daigle.  Therefore, being a Republican California Assemblyman on the ballot is worth $350,000 for Mansoor, being identified on the ballot as a Republican is worth $150,000 for Daigle, and being identified on the ballot as a Democrat is worth $200,000 for Rush.  Furthermore, Mansoor has no problem on his right flank, and Rush has no problem on his left flank, so they can both come after Daigle’s voters in the center.

Daigle will need to spend a fortune to form a coalition of anti-incumbent Republicans, Democrats willing to vote for a Republican, and independents who are both anti-incumbent and anti-Democrat.  There’s a certain bloc of voters who will automatically vote for Mansoor because he has “California Assemblyman” as his ballot designation, and there’s a certain bloc of voters who will automatically vote for Rush because he has “Democrat” as his party affiliation, but Daigle has no natural bloc of automatic voters.  She will have to outspend both Mansoor and Rush to pull together enough votes to reach second place to get to November.

42% of AD-74 voters are registered Republicans, 29% are registered Democrats, 24% are registered as No Party Preference, and 5% are registed as members of third parties.  If Daigle grabs 30% of Republicans from Mansoor and 25% of Democrats from Rush (remember, she does have the word “Republican” after her name on the ballot even if she is to the left of Mansoor), that gives her 20% of the vote, Mansoor 29% of the vote, and Rush 22% of the vote.  That leaves the 29% of the vote from independent and minor party voters.  Say she gets 36% of those people and Mansoor and Rush each get 32%.  That brings Daigle up to 30%, Mansoor to 37%, and Rush 31%.  She would still fail to make it to November.

However, her problem is compounded because independent voters, moderate Republicans, and moderate Democrats are less likely to vote in primaries, so you get the hard core partisans in primaries.  That means loyal Mansoor Republicans and loyal Rush Democrats will be disproportionately high.   This is why to advance to November, Daigle must substantially outspend both Mansoor and Rush, who will only need to spend enough money to reinforce their bases.  I suspect Mansoor captures half the vote, Rush will end up in the high 20s, and Daigle in the low 20s.

Barring a six-figure infusion of cash over the next two months (along with a complete failure of her opponents to fundraise), Daigle is caught between a Rush rock and a Mansoor hard place.

Posted in 74th Assembly District, Fundraising | Tagged: , , | 3 Comments »

OC CRA Endorsing Convention Recap

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 24, 2012

For those of you who don’t want to wade through my live play-by-play of the OC CRA endorsing convention, here’s a list of all the endorsements from this morning.

(By the way, the play-by-plays with the most fireworks were in the Spitzer-Pauly race for the 3rd Supervisorial District and the Edgar-Pham battle for the endorsement in the 72nd Assembly District.)

Congressional Endorsements:

  • CD-38: LA County CRAs will sponsor that endorsing convention
  • CD-39: Congressman Ed Royce by voice vote
  • CD-45: No endorsement (effectively, a 50/50 split occurred, as Congressman John Campbell blocked businessman John Webb’s  endorsement without being present)
  • CD-46: Businessman Jerry Hayden won 11 of the 12 votes cast in the first round.
  • CD-47: No endorsement actually got more votes than any candidate.
  • CD-48: Congressman Dana Rohrabacher by voice vote
  • CD-49: Congressman Darrell Issa by voice vote
State Senate Endorsements
  • SD-29: Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff endorsed by voice vote
  • SD-37: Senator Mimi Walters endorsed by voice vote

State Assembly Endorsements

  • AD-55: Assemblyman Curt Hagman endorsed by voice vote
  • AD-65: Assemblyman Chris Norby endorsed by voice vote
  • AD-68: Assemblyman Don Wagner endorsed by voice vote
  • Ad-69: No endorsement
  • AD-72: Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar captured the endorsement in the second round over Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham, who actually led in the first round of balloting
  • AD-73: Assemblywoman Diane Harkey endorsed by voice vote
  • AD-74: Allan Mansoor endorsed by voice vote

Supervisorial Endorsements

  • 1st Supervisorial District: Supervisor Janet Nguyen endorsed by voice vote (of course, her sole opponent is convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco, who is registered as no party preference)
  • 3rd Supervisorial District: Todd Spitzer endorsed in second round over Deborah Pauly after a fairly spirited discussion

Orange County Board of Education Endorsements

  • Area 1: Robert Hammond endorsed by voice vote
  • Area 3: OCBE Trustee Ken Williams endorsed by voice vote

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working for Assemblyman Chris Norby. Also, OCBE candidate Robert Hammond and OCBE Trustee Ken Williams are clients of Custom Campaigns. Norby, Hammond, and Williams were all endorsed by voice vote.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Live from the OC CRA Convention…

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 24, 2012

We’ll be live-blogging (for updates, refresh this post) from the OC CRA endorsing convention at the Turtle Rock Community Center in Irvine…

Format will be 3 minutes from the candidate and 3 minutes of Q&A for each race.

Mike Munzing (South OC) and Baron Night (Buena Park) appointed sergeants-at-arms. Host Jeff Lalloway (Greater Irvine) appointed parliamentarian.

Races will be voted in the order of Federal, State, and County, with slight adjustments allowed to accommodate candidate schedules.

Republican incumbents with no Republican opponent will be done by voice vote. All other races will be done by secret ballot.

Endorsements require a 2/3 vote.

In a three-candidate race, the candidate with the least votes is dropped in the first round. The remaining two candidates will contest the second and third rounds. In a two-candidate race, both candidates remain for all three rounds.

No race will go beyond three rounds, unless there are five or more Republican candidates (there are no races that have five or more candidates being considered today).

79 of an eligible 114 delegates are present representing 19 units.

First race up: AD-74
Assemblyman Allan Mansoor is here; Leslie Daigle is not. Both were invited.

Mansoor ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: CD-47
Steve Kuykendall is here; Gary DeLong is not. Both were invited. No one discussed the two minor Republican candidates.

In response to a Baron Night question, Kuykendall said he would have opposed TARP.

In response to a shouted question from a member of a CRA unit that is not eligible to vote in CD-47, Kuykendall said he is pro-choice.

Secret ballot will be used in CD-47. Westminster, Garden Grove, Stanton, and Buena Park RAs are voting.

No one reached 2/3 in round one: 5 Kuykendall, 3 DeLong, 7 no endorsement, and 1 other.

No one reached 2/3 in round two: exact totals not announced.

No one reached 2/3 in round three: exact totals not announced.

NO ENDORSEMENT in CD-47.

Next up: OCBE 3
Incumbent Ken Williams is here.

Williams is ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up will be the first real fireworks: 3rd Supervisorial District

Todd Spitzer will speak first; Deborah Pauly elected to speak second.

Spitzer points to his legislative record, his ability to not insult or divide people, his longtime status as a member of his CRA unit in Orange-Villa Park, his vast Republican endorsement list; his HJTA record; he says of his 3% at 50 vote: “That vote was a mistake.”

In response to a question from Ray Grangoff, Spitzer opposes pension spiking and says local employees should be forced to pay the employee contribution to the pension. (State public employees pay the employee contribution while taxpayers pay the employer contribution. Taxpayers pay both the employer and employee contribution for local public employees.)

In response to a question by Chris Emami, Spitzer opposes the Moorlach term limit extension.

Pauly speaks of her role in creating the Orange-Villa Park CRA unit. She speaks of her role in Prop 8. She speaks of good and evil. She has visited many CRA units. She says she is the true conservative.

In response to a question by Chris Emami, Pauly opposes the Moorlach term limit extension and notes her opposition to the Villa Park term limit extension.

In response to a question by Ken Williams, who expressed concerns about statesmanship, personal attacks, and offensiveness, Pauly argues only those who oppose her principles should be offended. She notes Spitzer’s 3% at 50 vote (though she doesn’t say his name).

In response to a question from Jeff Lalloway, who expressed concerns that Pauly’s Council colleagues all endorsed Spitzer, Pauly says she has “been very difficult to work with” because she opposed a 5% pay raise for city employees; she opposed spending taxes on a mural; she takes issues to the people when the council fails because “they don’t like it that they are called upon the carpet by a woman.”

Secret ballot on this one.

Irvine, Tustin, Orange-Villa Park (including yours truly), and Anaheim RAs are voting.

No endorsement in first round, as 15 votes were needed: 14 Spitzer, 6 Pauly, 2 no endorsement.

Pauly says there is no hope for conservatives if CRA doesn’t vote for her.

Spitzer says he is a pro-life Christian who is offended at being accused of not being a social conservative. He says Pauly threatened the CRA. He went over time by noting Pauly’s non-endorsement by Villa Park City Council.

Second round voting.

Spitzer ENDORSED by ballot.
18 Spitzer, 3 Pauly, and 1 no endorsement.

Next up: CD-48

Congressman Dana Rohrabacher is not present due to scheduling conflict.

Fountain Valley CRA unit member objects to Rohrabacher supporting allowing physician-assisted suicide.

Dana Rohrabacher ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: AD-55

Assemblyman Curt Hagman ENDORSED by voice vote with no discussion.

Next up: CD-46
Jorge Rocha speaks first. He talks about Loretta Sanchez’s long-term incumbency, education issues, and jobs.

Jerry Hayden speaks second. He talks about his birth in CD-46 and living in every city in CD-46. He speaks of his job as a financial advisor and his family. He speaks of jobs, energy, education, and religious freedoms. He wants to repeal the Obama healthcare plan, build the Keystone pipeline, and expand domestic oil production. He notes his endorsement by the CA Republican Party and the Family Action PAC.

Pat Garcia is the third and final speaker in CD-46. He speaks of the Huntington Beach escrow company that he and his wife own. He reads his notes about limited government and personal freedom. He loses his place at one point.

In a question from an Anaheim RA member, Garcia supports decriminalization of drug use.

In a question from a Corona Del Mar RA member, Garcia supports abolishing the Fed.

In a question from Lucille Kring of Anaheim RA, Garcia is pro-life.

Secret ballot on this one.

Santa Ana, Garden Grove, Anaheim, and Orange-Villa Park are voting.

Hayden ENDORSED with 11 of 12 ballots cast.

Next up: OCBE 1

Robert Hammond speaks of Prop 13. He’s been in education for years. He taught to Navajos and Apaches. He’s taught in public schools, private schools, and home schools. He served as a Marine. He opposes tax increases.

Hammond ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: CD-45

Challenger John Webb is here. Congressman John Campbell declined the invitation.

Webb speaks of his military and business background. He speaks of Campbell’s votes on TARP, Cash for Clunkers, Sarbanes-Oxley expansion, Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, and the STOCK Act. Webb pledges to serve only three terms.

In response to a Corona Del Mar RA delegate’s question, Webb states he is pro-life.

Secret ballot on this one.

In the first round, there’s a tie: 14 votes each for John Campbell and John Webb. There were 2 abstentions.

Webb speaks of OC being the “conservative capital” and of jobs.

In the second round (20 votes required for endorsement):
15 for John Campbell, 14 for John Webb, and 1 abstention.

Webb speaks of Campbell’s statements that he knew what the people didn’t. Webb claims there’s 4 Ed Royces becuase Royce is all over Orange County. Webb says Campbell rarely shows up.

In the final round (19 votes required for endorsement):
14 for John Webb, 13 for John Campbell, and 1 abstention.

NO ENDORSEMENT in CD-45.

Next up: CD-49
Congressman Darrell Issa is the only Republican running but is not present.

North San Diego, Saddleback, and South OC RA are eligible to vote but North San Diego is not present.

Issa is ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: CD-39
Congressman Ed Royce sent two representatives (Zonya Townsend and Steve Sarkis) due to a scheduling conflict involving constituent town halls. Royce is the sole Republican in the race.

Royce is ENDORSED by voice vote.

Royce arrives during the AD-72 voting but was already endorsed.

Royce is asked to speak anyway. He speaks of his efforts for Ronald Reagan over Gerald Ford in 1976. He speaks of Reagan’s battle against Communism. Royce credits CRA for giving Reagan his political start. He speaks of Reagan’s success in the (according to the Wall Street Journal) “Orange Countization of the United States.” He wants to keep Nancy Pelosi out of the Speakership, wants to oust Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leadership, and wants to see Marco Rubio as Vice President.

Next up (expect fireworks): AD-72

Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham is first to speak. He attacks Ed Royce for trying to whip the vote in AD-72 for Troy Edgar. Pham notes he’s a long-time member of the CRA and is the only AD-72 candidate who has never been a Democrat nor given money to Democrats. Pham also says he’s not beholden to Mike Schroeder, Scott Baugh, and Ed Royce. Pham also notes the influence of the Vietnamese vote.

Matt Harper asks about Prop 13, the no new taxes pledge, and his voting record on taxes. Pham says he has not received the pledge but will sign it. He supports keeping the 2/3 vote. He says he will vote against taxes.

In response to a question from a delegate, there was a lot of confusion over Stop Special Interest Money Now. it sounds like he supports the measure.

Troy Edgar speaks next. He notes he’s a US Navy veteran, business owner, and Mayor of Los Alamitos. He speaks of his business career. He speaks of his first political involvement in 2006 when he ran (successfully) for City Council.

Matt Harper asks about Edgar’s endorsements. Ed Royce, Dana Rohrabacher, Jim Silva, Tom Harman, 14 Assembly Members, most mayors and councilmembers (including Harper) endorsed Edgar.

In response to a Fountain Valley RA delegate question, Edgar admits he was a Democrat until 2006. He blames his Inland Empire union-member father. Edgar says he voted for Reagan and has never given money to a Democrat.

In response to a question, he states he is in favor of Stop Special Interest Money and the death penalty. He states he is pro-life.

Travis Allen did not send a representative.

Secret ballot on this one.

The vote was invalidated because 17 people voted despite there being only 16 eligible delegates.

Good catch by ballot counters John W. Briscoe and Jay Petersen.

First round vote (requires 12 votes for endorsement):
9 Pham, 7 Edgar, and 1 for Allen.

A 5-minute caucus was approved for AD-72 after the first-round vote was announced.

Edgar states he’s never given money to a Democrat and states he is a dedicated Republican.

Pham blames the “special interest” of Ed Royce for getting Edgar out of the CD-47 race and into the AD-72 race. He says, “CRA should not be a rubber stamp for a Congressman.”

Second-round vote (Allen is dropped for having the fewest votes):
12 for Edgar, 3 for Pham, and 2 abstentions.

Edgar ENDORSED after two rounds.

Next up: AD-65

I represented Chris Norby, noting his record on abolishing redevelopment agencies (applause line) and the fact that his sole opponent is a Democrat.

Norby ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: SD-29

Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff sent no representative but is the sole Republican running.

Huff ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: 1st Supervisorial District

Supervisor Janet Nguyen sent Steve Sarkis as his representative due to an all-day district event.

Nguyen ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: Judicial Race and Central Committee

Baron Night moves and Dennis Catron seconds to authorize the council of CRA unit presidents to endorse in the judicial race and the Central Committee races.

Dale Tyler made a motion to require Central Committee endorsements be made by the CRA units in regional caucuses themselves rather than the presidents’ council. Karl Heft notes Tyler’s motion violates the CRA statewide by-laws.

The Night motion passes by VOICE VOTE.

Next up: SD-37

Senator Mimi Walters thanks CRA for its support in all her previous legislative races. She notes she is one of the most conservative State Senators in the state. She says she was “drawn out of my district,” and “I live, or rather, lived, in Laguna Niguel, and I now live in Irvine.” She fought to successfully qualify the referendum to overturn the Senate districts.

Walters ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: AD-68

Assemblyman Don Wagner notes that the pundits thought he’d lose in the 2010 primary and how they were wrong. Wagner notes he’s the sole Republican in the race and regarding his Democratic opponent: “I have pictures of her. (Pause for audience reaction.) Pictures of her with the likes of Dennis Kucinich and Maxine Waters.”

Wagner ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: Speech by Steven Choi

While waiting for Diane Harkey to arrive, CRA asks Irvine Councilman Steven Choi to give a speech.

Steven Choi speaks about his efforts to make Irvine a better place. He speaks of his family and his conservative record. He notes he’s the sole Republican in the race for Mayor of Irvine.

Since the election is in November and only involves one city, the Greater Irvine RA will vote later this year on endorsing Choi.

Next up: AD-73

Assemblywoman Diane Harkey speaks of spending her own money to be in DC this past week lobbying Congress against high-speed rail. She notes her voting record and endorsements from conservative organizations.

Harkey ENDORSED by voice vote.

END: With shocking efficiency, the convention ended at 1:04, just four minutes late.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Irvine, Orange County, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

CD-47: Which Long Beach Resident Will Represent Garden Grove, Westminster, Cypress, Los Alamitos, Stanton, Buena Park, and Rossmoor?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 22, 2012

Gary DeLong, Steve Kuykendall, and Alan Lowenthal

Councilman Gary DeLong (R-Long Beach), former Congressman Steve Kuykendall (R-Long Beach), State Senator Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach)

CD-47 is one of the LA-OC Congressional districts.  When created by the Redistricting Commission, Congresswoman Linda Richardson (D-Long Beach) resided within its borders; however, the Democrats’ voter registration advantage proved too small for Richardson’s comfort, so she’s running for CD-44 against fellow Congresswoman Janice Hahn (D-Los Angeles).  In CD-47, Democrats comprise 42.4% of registered voters, Republicans 31.7%, and No Party Preference 21.1%.  In CD-44, Democrats comprise 63.9% of registered voters, Republicans 13.2%, and No Party Preference 18.6%.

The Los Angeles County portions of CD-47 (Signal Hill, 82% of Long Beach, and 22% of Lakewood) comprise 58% of the district.  The Orange County portions of CD-47 (Cypress, Los Alamitos, Stanton, Rossmoor, 61% of Westminster, 60% of Garden Grove, and 24% of Buena Park) comprise 42% of the district.

The Republicans running for this open seat are:

The Democrats running are:

Oddly, Jay Shah and Usha Shah are married to each other.  For the sake of family peace, I really hope the Shahs’ two adult sons live outside CD-47.  I would love to have a seat at the Shahs’ next family dinner.

The three front-runners for June are definitely DeLong, Kuykendall, and Lowenthal.  They’re the ones with the name ID and the money.  Once Republicans DeLong and Kuykendall settle their battle, one of them will face off against Lowenthal, the Democrat.

At the close of 2011, DeLong led the money race with $367,486 cash on hand and $4,912 in debt.  Lowenthal was next with $169,221 and $10,172 in debt.  Kuykendall had $37,659 and $9,040 in debt.  Oddly, Mathews had $64 cash on hand and $349,511 in debt!  Usha Shah had no cash on hand and $31,920 in debt.  All other candidates had no cash on hand and no debts.

Posted in 47th Congressional District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Glad OC’s Not in the IE: Riverside Registrar Abrogates Public Review Period

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 21, 2012

Riverside County in Black, Orange County in OrangeIn Orange County, the Registrar of Voters has long published both candidates’ statements and ballot designations for review by the public in the ten days after candidate filing.  They cite Elections Code Section 13313, which states, “(a) The elections official shall make a copy of the material referred to in Section 13307 available for public examination in the elections official’s office for a period of 10 calendar days immediately following the filing deadline for submission of those documents…”  (Section 13307 refers to the candidate’s statement, name, age, and occupation; the occupation is of course what the ballot designation describes.)

In a stunning disregard for public input, the Riverside County Registrar of Voters has completely abrogated the public review period for ballot designations.  No fewer than 61 candidates had “Ballot Designation Pending” during the entire public review period (and actually still do as of this morning).  Keep in mind, I’m using the most generous standard possible in counting just 61: I’m excluding the US Senate race, along with any multi-county Congressional races or multi-county state legislative races (in multi-county races, you could go to the Registrars of the other counties to find the ballot designation).  Candidates for everything from Congress to State Legislature to County Supervisor to County Board of Education to Central Committee had “Ballot Designation Pending” as their ballot designation.

In the system as run by the Orange County Registrar of Voters, the ballot designations are published literally the same night that candidate filing closes, and the public is allowed ten days to file suit to obtain a writ of mandate from the Orange County Superior Court to force a ballot designation change if the plaintiff is able to prove (to the satisfaction of the judge) that the ballot designation is false, misleading, or somehow otherwise does not meet the requirements of the Elections Code (like using certain words on the forbidden word list).  Every election, there’s at least one, usually more, lawsuits in Orange County seeking writs of mandate over ballot designations.  Indeed, there are often suits at the state level over ballot designations (Attorney General and Board of Equalization District 2 come to mind from 2010).

Candidate filing for most offices closed on Friday, March 9, meaning the 10-day public review period ended two days ago on Monday, March 19.

However, the Riverside County Registrar of Voters has completely abrogated this public review for ballot designations.  The 10-day public review period has come and gone, and 61 candidates still have “Ballot Designation Pendling” under their names.  If a Riverside County resident had wanted to file suit to obtain a writ of mandate from the Riverside County Superior Court to force a ballot designation change, they would not have been able to do so because they would not have been able to view the ballot designations in order to file suit.  A plaintiff cannot prove a ballot designation is false, misleading, or otherwise in violation of the Elections Code if the ballot designation is simply pending.

While the Orange County Registrar of Voters allows voters to appeal ballot designations by giving them time to file suit with the Orange County Superior Court during the public review period to challenge ballot designations, it seems the Riverside Registrar of Voters wants to act as the all-powerful final arbiter of ballot designations, allowing no public recourse.

Posted in California | Tagged: , | 4 Comments »

California Republican Party’s Endorsements for OC: Royce, Campbell, Hayden, DeLong, Rohrabacher, Issa, Huff, Walters, Hagman, Norby, Wagner, Harkey, Mansoor

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 20, 2012

The California Republican Party has endorsed in most races for Congress, the State Senate, and the State Assembly.  Emami blogged about the CRP endorsement of Elizabeth Emken for the US Senate while I indirectly linked to the list of endorsements in this post (via CapitolAlert).

However, we never really discussed the state Republican Party endorsements here on OC Political, so here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s US Congressional delegation:

  • CD-39: Congressman Ed Royce (R-Fullerton) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
  • CD-45: Congressman John Campbell (R-Irvine) was endorsed over Small Business Owner John Webb.
    While the CRP endorsed Campbell, the OCGOP did not.
    I covered the OCGOP endorsement drama in this race here, and Emami covered it here.
  • CD-47: Long Beach Councilman Gary DeLong was endorsed over former Congressman Steve Kuykendall, an OC man named Steve Foley, and Small Business Owner Sanford Kahn.
    The Democrats running for this open seat are State Senator Alan Lowenthal, College Professor Peter Mathews, and inexplicably, a married couple are both running: Dr. Jay Shah and Charity President Usha Shah.  I’d pay to go to the Shah family dinner the night before the election.  It must be awkward to be one of the Shahs’ two adult sons; hope they live outside CD-47.
    As a legitimate swing district with no incumbent, this is one of the most interesting races involving Orange County.
  • CD-48: Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
  • CD-49: Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Vista) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.

Here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s State Senate delegation (in both cases, they’re the sole Republican running; I covered both those races here):

Here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s State Assembly delegation:

  • AD-55: Assemblyman Curt Hagman (R-Chino Hills) was endorsed is the sole Republican running.
  • AD-65: Assemblyman Chris Norby (R-Fullerton) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
    Emami covered this race here.
  • AD-68: Assemblyman Don Wagner (R-Irvine) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
    I did an article on his opponent, Christina Avalos (D-Orange), here.  Emami covered her here.
  • AD-69: No endorsement was made.  OC Eligibility Technician Jose Moreno is the sole Republican running.  I sort of covered him here.
  • AD-72: No endorsement was made.
    Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar, OC Board of Education Trustee Long Pham, and Businessman Travis Allen are the three Republicans running for this open seat.
    Click here to see our various articles related to AD-72.
  • AD-73: Assemblywoman Diane Harkey (R-Dana Point) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.

For the full list of all Congressional, State Senate, and State Assembly endorsements by the California Republican Party, click here.

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working in the office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who was endorsed in AD-65.)

Posted in 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Redistricting Commission Didn’t Realize La Palma is in Orange County

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 19, 2012

38th Congressional District with La Palma Circled in BlueI will first note that I did vote for both Prop 11 (which created the California Citizens Redistricting Commission) and Prop 20 (which extended the Commission’s jurisdiction to Congressional districts).  I do still believe the commission is a better way to redistrict than having the Legislature do it.  However, that doesn’t mean the commission is perfect, and I do believe we should point out their mistakes.

Unbelievably, the Redistricting Commission did not realize that the City of La Palma is in Orange County.  They placed La Palma in the 38th Congressional District, which is represented by Linda Sanchez.  Yes, the Redistricting Commission added another Sanchez sister to the OC Congressional delegation.  Every other city in CD-38 is in LA County.

However, my statement that the Redistricting Commission didn’t realize La Palma is in Orange County isn’t because of the reasons above.  It’s because of the paragraph describing CD-38 in the commission’s final report:

CD 38 includes the Los Angeles County cities and communities of South El Monte, Cerritos, Artesia, Whittier, Norwalk, Pico Rivera, La Mirada, East La Mirado, Montebello, Santa Fe Springs, La Palma, Hawaiian Gardens and divides the cities of Bellflower and Lakewood to comply with Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and to achieve population equality. These cities share the major transportation corridors of the Interstate 5 and Interstate 605 freeways, with their corresponding traffic and environmental concerns. The district is characterized by shared commercial, economic, educational, and public safety issues among these cities. In this district, South El Monte is whole.

Yes, the  commission included La Palma in its list of “Los Angeles County cities and communities” in CD-38.  (I’m also sure the people of “East La Mirada” appreciate being called “East La Mirado” in the report.)

How big is La Palma?  It has 15,568 people.  I recognize that some districts do need to cross county lines, but was La Palma really the way to go on that?  Couldn’t 15,568 people be moved from the LA County part of CD-47 to CD-38 and then have La Palma move from CD-38 to CD-47?  CD-47 is 58% LA County and 42% Orange County, so my La Palma switch would simply make CD-47’s composition 56% LA County and 44% Orange County while CD-38 would then be exclusively LA County, instead of 98% LA County and 2% Orange County.  (The switch also would have had little effect on either district’s party registration.)

It seems that Linda Sanchez acquired an Orange County city and joined the OC Congressional delegation due to an error by the Redistricting Commission.

(Again, I do believe the Redistricting Commission has been a net gain for California, but they’re not perfect, and we should point out their mistakes.)

Posted in 38th Congressional District, California, La Palma, Orange County | Tagged: , , | 4 Comments »

Feeling Lucky! Newest California Lottery Winners: Webb, Garcia, Varaseth, Walters, Norby, Avalos, Daly, Allen, Harkey, Daigle, Nguyen, Spitzer, Downing, Night, Dumitru, Dyrud, Nagel, Anderson, Aiken

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 16, 2012

LotteryYesterday afternoon, the newest winners of the California lottery were announced: Businessman John Webb, Businessman Pat Garcia, Businessman Ron Varaseth, Senator Mimi Walters, Assemblyman Chris Norby, Perennial candidate Christina Avalos, Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly, Businessman Travis Allen, Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, Supervisor Janet Nguyen, former Supervisor/Assemblyman Todd Spitzer, Businesswoman Karla Downing, Central Committee Member Baron Night, Orange Councilman Jon Dumitru, Central Committee Member Gwen Dyrud, Central Committee Member Steve Nagel, San Clemente Planning Commissioner Nesa Anderson, and Office Clerk Jon Aiken.

No, these 19 people are not splitting a $200,000,000 jackpot.  They won the Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery.

What’s the candidate order lottery, you ask?

Well, California law requires a lottery to determine the order of candidates on the ballot.  Why does this law exist?  Studies of the primacy effect showed the candidate at the top of the ballot gains as much as a 5% increase in votes.  Consequently, in 1975, California legislators adopted a law mandating an end to the alphabetical listing of candidates (likely to the chagrin of Sam Aanestad and Dick Ackerman but the joy of Mary Young and Ed Zschau) and requiring a lottery before each election.

The Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery has determined the alphabet for the June primary to be UNADIVXWQGOZLTRKSJHMCBFPYE.

This applies to most races on the ballot, excluding races that cross county lines (for OC, these would be CD-38, CD-39, CD-47, CD-49, SD-29, and AD-55).

The primacy effect is weaker when there are fewer candidates on the ballot, and when there are higher-profile campaigns.  Being at the top of the ballot is most valuable for low-profile campaigns with large numbers of candidates.  That means that of the 19 people I listed above, the biggest winners in this lottery are the Central Committee candidates, so the biggest congratulations goes to the following Republican Central Committee Candidates for their 5% vote bonus:

  • 55th District: Karla Downing, Small Business Owner (1st of 10 candidates)
  • 65th District: Baron Night, Incumbent (1st of 11 candidates)
  • 68th District: Jon Dumitru, City Councilman (1st of 18 candidates)
  • 69th District: Gwen A. Dyrud, Appointed Incumbent (1st of 10 candidates)
  • 72nd District: Steve A. Nagel, Incumbent (1st of 14 candidates)
  • 73rd District: Nesa Anderson, Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman (1st of a stunning 22 candidates)
  • 74th District: Jon Aiken, Office Clerk (1st of 16 candidates)

For the races that cross county lines, each county does its own lottery, so here are the OC Registrar’s lottery results: DMNESVTUHKWGXFCIQYAORZPLJB.

Congratulations to these candidates who won the Registrar’s lottery and will appear at the top of the ballot in the Orange County portions of their districts:

  • 38th Congressional District: Linda Sanchez (D), United States Representative (1st of 3)
  • 39th Congressional District: D’Marie Mulattieri (DCorrection: NPP), Community Volunteer (1st of 3)
  • 47th Congressional District: Gary DeLong (R), Local Small Businessman (1st of 8)
  • 49th Congressional District: Albin Novinec (NPP), United States Marine (1st of 4)
  • 29th Senate District: Greg Diamond (D), Workers’ Rights Attorney (1st of 2)
  • 55th Assembly District: Curt Hagman (R), Member of the State Assembly (1st of 2)

You would think that with electronic voting now, the names could be randomized for every poll voter (obviously, we’d still need the lottery for absentee voters).

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working for Assemblyman Chris Norby, one of the lottery winners, as the letter N came in second in the alphabet behind U, though no one with a last name starting with U is running in all of Orange County.)

Posted in 29th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »