OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Memorial Day – A Reminder that Freedom is not Free!

Posted by Craig P Alexander on May 24, 2020

See iconic D-Day black and white photos brought to life in color

Whenever I look at this photograph it reminds me that Freedom is not Free – as we celebrate Memorial Day this year let us never forget the men and women who “gave their last measure of devotion” by laying down their lives so that we could live in freedom.  We should all enjoy our BBQ, going to the beach or park or whatever you like to do (even in this strange COVID-19 situation we find ourselves in) on a holiday weekend.  But we should always remember those who fought and died to allow us that freedom and liberty – and never take those liberties for granted.

On Memorial Day I always remember my Great Uncle Peter Powell who died a year or so after the end of World War I – from complications of mustard gas he suffered in the trenches of France. Because of that I was never able to meet him.  But I honor him and look forward to the day I will meet him.  On that day I will say “Thank you Uncle Peter”.

For those of you who are too young to remember this photo – it was taken on June 6, 1044 – D-Day when the allies landed on the beaches of Normandy, France to liberate Europe and topple Nazi Germany.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

Full Text of Governor’s Stay-at-Home Order

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on March 20, 2020

This is the full text of the Governor’s stay-at-home order during the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis:

EXECUTIVE ORDER N-33-20

WHEREAS on March 4, 2020, I proclaimed a State of Emergency to exist in California as a result of the threat of COVID-19; and

WHEREAS in a short period of time, COVID-19 has rapidly spread throughout California, necessitating updated and more stringent guidance from federal, state, and local public health officials; and

WHEREAS for the preservation of public health and safety throughout the entire State of California, I find it necessary for all Californians to heed the State public health directives from the Department of Public Health.

NOW, THEREFORE, I, GAVIN NEWSOM, Governor of the State of California, in accordance with the authority vested in me by the State Constitution andstatutes of the State of California, and in particular, Government Code sections 8567, 8627, and 8665 do hereby issue the following Order to become effective immediately:

IT IS HEREBY ORDERED THAT:

1) To preserve the public health and safety, and to ensure the healthcare delivery system is capable of serving all, and prioritizing those at the highest risk and vulnerability, all residents are directed to immediately heed the current State public health directives, which I ordered the Department of Public Health to develop for the current statewide status of COVID-19. Those directives are consistent with the March 19, 2020, Memorandum on Identification of Essential Critical Infrastructure Workers During COVID-19 Response, found at: https://covid19.ca.gov/.

Those directives follow:

ORDER OF THE STATE PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICER
March 19, 2020

To protect public health, I as State Public Health Officer and Director of the California Department of Public Health order all individuals living in the State of California to stay home or at their place of residence except as needed to maintain continuity of operations of the federal critical infrastructure sectors, as outlined at https://www.cisa.gov/identifying-critical-infrastructure-during-covid-19. In addition, and in consultation with the Director of the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, I may designate additional sectors as critical in order to protect the health and well-being of all Californians.

Pursuant to the authority under the Health and Safety Code 120125, 120140, 131080, 120130(c), 120135, 120145, 120175 and 120150, this order is to go into effect immediately and shall stay in effect until further notice.

The federal government has identified 16 critical infrastructure sectors whose assets, systems, and networks, whether physical or virtual, are considered so vital to the United States that their incapacitation or destruction would have a debilitating effect on security, economic security, public health or safety, or any combination thereof. I order that Californians working in these 16 critical infrastructure sectors may continue their work because of the importance of these sectors to Californians’ health and well-being.

This Order is being issued to protect the public health of Californians. The California Department of Public Health looks to establish consistency across the state in order to ensure that we mitigate the impact of COVID-19. Our goal is simple, we want to bend the curve, and disrupt the spread of the virus.

The supply chain must continue, and Californians must have access to such necessities as food, prescriptions, and health care. When people need to leave their homes or places of residence, whether to obtain or perform the functions above, or to otherwise facilitate authorized necessary activities, they should at all times practice social distancing.

2) The healthcare delivery system shall prioritize services to serving those who are the sickest and shall prioritize resources, including personal protective equipment, for the providers providing direct care to them.

3) The Office of Emergency Services is directed to take necessary steps to ensure compliance with this Order.

4) This Order shall be enforceable pursuant to California law, including, but not limited to, Government Code section 8665.

IT IS FURTHER ORDERED that as soon as hereafter possible, this Order be filed in the Office of the Secretary of State and that widespread publicity and notice be given of this Order.

This Order is not intended to, and does not, create any rights or benefits, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity, against the State of California, its agencies, departments, entities, officers, employees, or any other person.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF I have hereunto set my hand and caused the Great Seal of the State of California to be affixed this 19th day of March 2020.

/s/ GAVIN NEWSOM
Governor of California

ATTEST:

/s/ ALEX PADILLA
Secretary of State

Posted in California | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

County Issues, Then Rescinds, Sweeping Order on Public Gatherings and Work in Fight Against Coronavirus

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 19, 2020

CoronavirusIn a 27-hour period, the County of Orange issued, then rescinded, a sweeping order that had restricted most gatherings of people, including most private sector work, intended to fight the coronavirus:

  • Tuesday, 2:58 PM: In an email to the media, the County released its initial sweeping order, which was time-stamped 2:26 PM.
  • City governments and the news media moved quickly to disseminate the order, and numerous private businesses moved quickly to comply with the order.
  • Tuesday, 7:16 PM: Facing significant pushback from law enforcement, the business community, and various City governments, among others, combined with dissension within the County leadership, the County issued a press release time-stamped 6:51 PM, declaring the order “is NOT an order to shelter in place. It is not a lockdown. It is important for all Orange County businesses to remain open while practicing social distancing…” though restaurants should only provide “pickup, delivery and drive thru [sic] services.”
  • Wednesday, 3:30 PM: 20 hours after the press release and 25 hours after the initial order, County officials hold a press conference regarding “the updated Emergency Order” and urging businesses to stay open.
  • Wednesday, 5:01 PM: About an hour and a half after the press conference and nearly 22 hours after the press release, the County issued the new order rescinding the initial order that had been issued 27 hours earlier.  The new order time-stamped 4:40 PM, in effect, fell back to California Department of Public Health and U.S. Centers for Disease Control regulations.

Tuesday’s headlines on the initial order were stark:

Wednesday’s headlines on the press conference and revised order:

The County’s order time-stamped Tuesday at 2:26 PM and released to the media at 2:58 PM opened with, “All public and private gatherings of any number of people, including at places of work, occurring outside a single household or living unit are prohibited…This prohibition applies to all professional, social, and community gatherings, regardless of their sponsor, that are not engaged in Essential Activities, as defined” in a list of 23 items in the order.

The County press release time-stamped Tuesday at 6:51 PM and released to the media at 7:16 PM stated:

Public Health Order is NOT an Order to Shelter in Place

Today’s order from County Health Officer Dr. Nichole Quick is NOT an order to shelter in place. It is not a lockdown. It is important for all Orange County businesses to remain open while practicing social distancing consistent with the Governor’s guidance. However, following State guidelines, all bars and other establishments that serve alcohol and do not serve food shall close. All restaurants and other business establishments that serve food shall close all onsite dining. Pickup, delivery and drive thru services may remain open. It is important for all Orange County residents to read the order in its entirety.

Unfortunately, the order as written caused wide-spread confusion. In order to provide additional clarity requested by Orange County residents and businesses, the County will be issuing an amended Health Officer’s Order.

Should you have questions, please contact the County of Orange Public Information Hotline at (714) 628 7085. Please do not call 9-1-1 unless it is an emergency.

For general information about COVID-19, please call the OC Health Care Agency’s (HCA) Health Referral Line at (800) 564-8448, visit http://www.ochealthinfo.com/novelcoronavirus, or follow the HCA on Facebook (@ochealthinfo) and Twitter (@ochealth).

The County order time-stamped yesterday at 4:40 PM and released to the media at 5:01 PM read:

AMENDED ORDER AND GUIDANCE OF THE
ORANGE COUNTY HEALTH OFFICER
[REVISED 3/18/2020]

Pursuant to California Health and Safety Code sections 101040, 120175, and 120175.5(b), the Orange County Health Officer ORDERS AS FOLLOWS:

  1. In light of new written, changing state guidance, this Order revises the prior order issued by the Orange County Health Officer on March 17, 2020. The March 17, 2020, order is no longer in effect as of the effective date and time of this Order.
  2. Except as provided herein, nothing in this document prohibits businesses or other entities from operating within Orange County. Businesses and entities should operate in accordance with social distancing guidelines issued by the California Department of Public Health.
  3. Effective immediately, and continuing until 11:59 p.m., on March 31, 2020, public or private Gatherings, defined by the California Department of Public Health are prohibited. See, CDPH Guidance for the Prevention of COVID-19 Transmission for Gatherings, dated March 16, 2020, available at https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/CDPH%20Document%20Library/COVID-19/cdph-guidance-gatherings-covid19-transmission-prevention-03-16-2020.pdf Nothing in this Order prohibits the gathering of members of a household, family, or living unit, or the utilization of caregivers.
  4. This Order does not prohibit activities such as attendance at regular school classes, going to work, or performing essential services. In accordance with state guidance, certain activities are essential to the functioning of our County and must continue. Hence, with respect to the prohibition on Gatherings, this Order does not apply to essential public transportation, airport travel, shopping at a store, mall, or farmers’ market, or charitable food pantries and distributions, or to congregate living situations, including dormitories and homeless encampments. See, https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/Guidance.aspx
  5. In accordance with written guidance issued on March 16, 2020 by the California Department of Public Health, relating to Retail Food, Beverage, and Other Related Service Venues, (1) all bars and other business establishments that serve alcohol and do not serve food shall close; and (2) all movie theatres, gyms, and health clubs shall close. Food and beverage establishments, food trucks, grocery stores and charitable food distribution sites, and certified farmers’ markets are required to follow guidance released from the California Department of Public Health on March 16, 2020. All food served shall be by delivery, or through pick-up or drive-through. For purposes of food delivery and pick-up, social distancing, defined as maintaining a six-foot separation per person for non-family members, shall be required.
  6. In accordance with Interim Guidance for Businesses and Employers issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, employers shall not require a healthcare provider’s note for employees who are sick with acute respiratory illness to validate their illness or to return to work, as healthcare provider offices and medical facilities may be extremely busy and not able to provide such documentation in a timely way.

    Guidance

  7. A strong recommendation is made that all persons who are 65 years and older, or have a serious chronic medical condition (like heart disease, lung disease, and diabetes), or have a compromised immune system remain at home consistent with guidance provided by the California Department of Public Health on Self-Isolation for Older Adults and Those Who Have Elevated Risk.
  8. A strong recommendation is made for persons exhibiting mild to moderate symptoms of COVID-19 to self-isolate themselves in their place of residence unless seeking medical care.
  9. A strong recommendation is made that all businesses enact social distancing, increased sanitation standards, and make every effort to use telecommuting for its workforce.
  10. A strong recommendation is made that all residents are to heed any orders and guidance of state and local health officials related to COVID-19.

    General Provisions

  11. This Order and Guidance is necessary to protect and preserve the public health from, and prevent, the increasing transmission of COVID-19 in California and the significant risk of widespread introduction and transmission of COVID-19 into the County.
  12. Pursuant to Health and Safety Code section 120175.5 (b)  all governmental entities in the County shall take necessary measures within the governmental entity’s control to ensure compliance with this Order and to disseminate this Order to venues or locations within the entity’s jurisdiction where a large gathering may occur.
  13. This Order and Guidance shall not supersede any conflicting or more restrictive orders issued by the State of California or Federal governments. If any portion of this Order or the application thereof to any person or circumstance is held to be invalid the remainder of the Order, including the application of such part or provision to other persons or circumstances, shall not be affected and shall continue in full force and effect. To this end, the provisions of this Order are severable.

As this is a rapidly evolving situation, this Order and Guidance may be revised and/or extended at any time.

IT IS SO ORDERED:

Date: March 18, 2020

/s/ Dr. Nichole Quick
Orange County Health Officer

EMERGENCY REGULATIONS

As Director of Emergency Services for the County of Orange, I am authorized to promulgate regulations for the protection of life and property pursuant to Government Code Section 8634 and Orange County Codified Ordinance Section 3-1-6(b)(1). The following shall be in effect for the duration of the Orange County Health Officer Order issued above which is incorporated in its entirety by reference:

The Orange County Health Officer Order shall be promulgated as a regulation for the protection of life and property.

Any person who violates or who refuses or willfully neglects to obey this regulation is subject to fine, imprisonment, or both. (Government Code section 8665.)

Date: March 18, 2020

/s/ Frank Kim
County Executive Officer
County of Orange

Posted in Orange County, Orange County Board of Supervisors | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

OC’s Close Contests: Counting Virtually Done

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 15, 2020

Only 1.1% of OC ballots remain to be counted

After counting 16,006 ballots Friday and Saturday, the Orange County Registrar of Voters has counted 812,826 ballots, which puts OC voter turnout in the 2020 primary at 49.7%.  Although the Registrar reports 2,749 ballots left to count, that was after yesterday’s first update, and they did not provide an update on uncounted ballots after releasing yesterday’s second update of counted ballots.  In yesterday’s second update, 2,288 ballots were counted, so that leaves 461 ballots plus whatever additional ballots fall under “California voters’ ability to cure ballots after Election Day, as well as other factors allowing additional ballots to be counted.”

As OC Political noted Thursday, the Secretary of State defines “Close Contests” as those races where there is a margin of 2% or less, so we have been tracking Orange County’s close contests where there is a margin of 2% or less.

Because Central Committee races are exhausting to analyze and write about (and presumably exhausting to read about), only races where a new person has captured sixth place (since the top six are elected in each district) are covered below.  Since the the count resulted in no changes in any of the Central Committee races in either major party, no Central Committee race is covered below.

72nd Assembly District

In the 72nd Assembly District race for the second slot to reach the top two against former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley), Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) grew her lead over incumbent Tyler Diep (R-Westminster) to 827 votes (0.70%).  She previously led him in prior counts by 647 votes (0.56%) and 208 votes (0.20%).  Prior to that count, Diep had seen his lead over Diedre Nguyen continually shrink, having previously been 17 votes (0.02%), 291 votes (0.29%), 309 votes (0.31%), 1,050 votes (1.19%), 1,286 votes (1.54%), and 1,975 votes (2.56%).

Total Votes Percentage
39,684 33.83%
D) 29,919 25.50%
(R) 29,092 24.80%
18,621 15.87%

 

Tustin Unified School District Measure N

Tustin Unified School District’s Measure N continued to steadily inch up ever so slightly to 53.66% (1.34% short of 55%), but it is now mathematically impossible for it to reach the 55% required to pass a local school bond.  In the prior three counts, it was 53.59% (1.41% short of 55%), 53.40% (1.60% short of 55%), 53.15% (1.85% short of 55%) and 53.01% (1.99% short of 55%).

To reach 55%, it must win 100% of 695 additional ballots.  If even 1 additional “no” ballot comes in, then that increases the number of “yes” ballots that must come in.  (Note that there appears to be only an estimated 461 ballots left countywide, so an incredible number of cured ballots must come in from TUSD School Facilities Improvement District No. 2020-1 alone.)

Total Votes Percentage
12,474 53.66%
10,774 46.34%

 

(Cue my usual Nguyen disclaimer: The two 72nd Assembly District candidates, former Senator Janet Nguyen and Garden Grove Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen, are not related to each other, and neither of them are related to me. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 72nd Assembly District, Tustin Unified School District | Leave a Comment »

OC’s Close Contests: 98.9% of Ballots Counted, Diep Falls Further Behind, BOS-1 No Longer Close, Measure N Inches Up But Still Fails

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 13, 2020

Only 1.1% of OC ballots remain to be counted

After counting 33,794 ballots yesterday, the Orange County Registrar of Voters reports 9,254 ballots remain while 796,820 have been counted, which means 98.9% of OC’s 806,074 ballots have already been counted (OC voter turnout in the 2020 primary appears to be 49.3%).

As OC Political noted Thursday, the Secretary of State defines “Close Contests” as those races where there is a margin of 2% or less, so we are tracking Orange County’s close contests where there is a margin of 2% or less.

In the 1st Supervisorial District, Councilman Sergio Contreras (D-Westminster) continued to grow his lead over Mayor Miguel Pulido (D-Santa Ana) to make the runoff against Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster), increasing that lead to 2,039 votes (2.15%).  It no longer meets the “Close Contest” definition.  Even in the preposterous scenario that all 9,254 ballots remaining countywide were in the 1st Supervisorial District and every single one of them cast a valid vote for the office of Supervisor, Pulido would need to have a 22% lead over Contreras among those voters to make the run-off.  That would be a massive margin: in the votes tabulated so far, Pulido’s lead over Contreras in Santa Ana is only 12%.

A reader inquired by email as to why the number of ballots remaining, ballots counted, and voter turnout seem to be fluctuating.  The Registrar explains the moving target in this note:

These estimates were prepared based on averages and will be adjusted following additional detailed sorting.

*The number of ballots left to count can increase after election day, due [to] California voters’ ability to cure ballots after Election Day, as well as other factors allowing additional ballots to be counted.

Because Central Committee races are exhausting to analyze and write about (and presumably exhausting to read about), only races where a new person has captured sixth place (since the top six are elected in each district) are covered below.  Since the the count resulted in no changes in any of the Central Committee races in either major party, no Central Committee race is covered below.

72nd Assembly District

In the 72nd Assembly District race for the second slot to reach the top two against former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley), Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) grew her lead over incumbent Tyler Diep (R-Westminster) to 647 votes (0.56%).  When she first took the lead in the prior count, she led him by 208 votes (0.20%).  Prior to that count, Diep had seen his lead over Diedre Nguyen continually shrink, having previously been 17 votes (0.02%), 291 votes (0.29%), 309 votes (0.31%), 1,050 votes (1.19%), 1,286 votes (1.54%), and 1,975 votes (2.56%).

As noted in yesterday’s post, there is now an all-Nguyen general election race in AD-72 between Janet Nguyen and Diedre Nguyen.  Diep now has the indignity of joining AD-73’s Assemblyman Bill Brough (R-Dana Point) as the only incumbent legislators in the state to lose their re-election bids in the primary.

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
39,122 34.02%
D) 29,214 25.40%
R) 28,567 24.84%
18,097 15.74%

 

Tustin Unified School District Measure N

Tustin Unified School District’s Measure N continued to steadily inch up ever so slightly to 53.59% (1.41% short of 55%), but it is virtually impossible for it to reach the 55% required to pass a local school bond.  In the prior three counts, it was 53.40% (1.60% short of 55%), 53.15% (1.85% short of 55%) and 53.01% (1.99% short of 55%).

So far, 22,939 voters have cast votes on Measure N.  Assuming the 98.9% of ballots counted is uniform across the County (which certainly isn’t the case, but it’s the only number available and is better than no estimate, and doesn’t account for undervotes or overvotes), that would leave only 255 ballots for Measure N.  Even getting 100% of those ballots would leave Measure N at 54.10% in favor of the bond, still 0.90% short of 55%.

The voters of Tustin Unified School District School Facilities Improvement District 2020-1 comprise just 2.88% of Orange County’s registered voters.  For Measure N to pass, it needs 100% of an additional 719 ballots (7.77% of uncounted OC ballots), 71.20% of an additional 2,000 ballots (a whopping 21.61% of OC’s uncounted ballots), or 63.10% of an additional 4,000 ballots (an insane 43.22% of OC’s uncounted ballots).

In the utterly preposterous scenario of all 9,254 uncounted ballots in Orange County being in the Tustin Unified School District School Facilities Improvement District 2020-1, Measure N would still need 58.50% of those ballots to reach the required 55% to pass.

Total Votes Percentage
12,293 53.59%
10,646 46.41%

 

(Cue my usual Nguyen disclaimer: The two 72nd Assembly District candidates, former Senator Janet Nguyen and Garden Grove Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen, are not related to each other, and neither of them are related to me. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 72nd Assembly District, Tustin Unified School District | Leave a Comment »

OC’s Close Contests: 97.4% of Ballots Counted, Diedre Nguyen Surpasses Diep, Contreras Gains, Dunlap Passes Shawver, Measure N Fails

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 12, 2020

Just 2.6% of OC ballots remain to be counted

After counting 56,601 ballots yesterday, the Orange County Registrar of Voters reports 20,048 ballots remain while 763,026 have been counted, which means 97.4% of OC’s 783,074 ballots have already been counted (OC voter turnout in the 2020 primary appears to have settled at 47.9%).

As OC Political noted Thursday, the Secretary of State defines “Close Contests” as those races where there is a margin of 2% or less, so we are tracking Orange County’s close contests where there is a margin of 2% or less.

Because Central Committee races are exhausting to analyze and write about (and presumably exhausting to read about), only races where a new person has captured sixth place (since the top six are elected in each district) are covered below.  So instead of Republican Central Committee for five districts and Democratic Central Committee for seven districts, only one Central Committee race is below: 65th District for the Republican Central Committee.

72nd Assembly District

In the 72nd Assembly District race for the second slot to reach the top two against former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley), Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) overtook incumbent Tyler Diep (R-Westminster), and she now leads him 208 votes (0.20%).

The all-Republican general election race in AD-72 between Janet Nguyen and Diep now becomes an all-Nguyen general election race in AD-72 between Janet Nguyen and Diedre Nguyen.  Diep now has the indignity of joining AD-73’s Assemblyman Bill Brough (R-Dana Point) as the only incumbent legislators in the state to lose their re-election bids in the primary.

Before Diedre Nguyen finally surpassed Diep in the latest count, Diep had seen his lead over Diedre Nguyen continually shrink, having previously been 17 votes (0.02%), 291 votes (0.29%), 309 votes (0.31%), 1,050 votes (1.19%), 1,286 votes (1.54%), and 1,975 votes (2.56%).

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
37,070 34.14%
27,432 25.27%
27,224 25.07%
16,847 15.52%

 

1st Supervisorial District

In the 1st Supervisorial District race for the second slot to reach the runoff against incumbent Andrew Do (R-Westminster), Councilman Sergio Contreras (D-Westminster) continued growing his lead over Mayor Miguel Pulido (D-Santa Ana), which has now reached 1,674 votes (1.84%).

While there has been one post-Election Night count with Pulido gaining, Contreras has gained in most of those daily counts. In the prior counts, Contreras’s leads over Pulido were 1,386 votes (1.70%), 1,293 votes (1.63%), 1,207 votes (1.59%), 865 votes (1.22%), 968 votes (1.47%), and 514 votes (0.82%).

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
38,762 42.51%
20,249 22.21%
18,575 20.37%
13,597 14.91%

 

Tustin Unified School District Measure N

Tustin Unified School District’s Measure N continued to steadily inch up ever so slightly to 53.40% (1.6% short of 55%), but it is virtually impossible for it to reach the 55% required to pass a local school bond.  In the prior two counts, it was 53.15% (1.85% short of 55%) and 53.01% (1.99% short of 55%).

So far, 22,541 voters have cast votes on Measure N.  Assuming the 97.4% of ballots counted is uniform across the County (which certainly isn’t the case, but it’s the only number available and is better than no estimate, and doesn’t account for undervotes or overvotes), that would leave only 602 ballots for Measure N.  Even getting 100% of those ballots would leave Measure N at 54.61% in favor of the bond.  Even Vladimir Putin refuses to take 100% of the vote in his elections.

The voters of Tustin Unified School District School Facilities Improvement District 2020-1 comprise just 2.88% of Orange County’s registered voters.  For Measure N to pass, it needs 100% of an additional 804 ballots (4.01% of uncounted OC ballots), 72.10% of an additional 2,000 ballots (9.98% of OC’s uncounted ballots), and 64.05% of an additional 4,000 ballots (a whopping 19.95% of OC’s uncounted ballots).

In the preposterous scenario of all 20,048 uncounted ballots in Orange County being in the Tustin Unified School District School Facilities Improvement District 2020-1, Measure N would still need 56.8% of those ballots to reach the required 55% to pass.

With the failure of Measure N, that means all nine school bonds in Orange County from the 2020 primary election have been defeated.  Although the vast majority of school bonds are typically approved in any given election, Orange County was no outlier this year, as a majority of the local school bonds in California were defeated by the voters in the 2020 primary election.  Indeed, even Proposition 13 on the 2020 primary election ballot was defeated, the first statewide school bond to be defeated in 26 years (and 1994 was the year of the Republican Revolution), with the Yes on 13 campaign tweeting, “Based on current vote totals, it appears Proposition 13 will fall short of the required 50% threshold.”  (While local school bonds require a 55% vote to pass, statewide school bonds require only a simple majority of 50%.)

Bond Vote Total Votes Percentage
12,036 53.40%
10,505 46.60%

 

Republican Central Committee, 65th District

In the race for the sixth and final slot on the Republican Central Committee for the 65th District, Businessman Nick Dunlap (R-Fullerton) overtook Mayor David Shawver (R-Stanton) in the most recent count and is now ahead of the incumbent Central Committee member by 54 votes (0.05%).

In the first post-election night count (i.e. Wednesday, March 4), Shawver led Dunlap by 355 votes (0.45%).  Shawver’s lead continued to shrink with subsequent counts until Dunlap surpassed him in the latest count.

However, when the directly-elected members of the Central Committee are seated in January 2021, the 65th District will have two vacancies because Cynthia Thacker (R-Buena Park) and James Waters (R-Anaheim) will be seated as ex officio members of the Central Committee next month (April 2020), as Thacker is the Republican nominee for Assembly against incumbent Sharon Quirk-Silva (D-Fullerton) and Waters is the Republican nominee for Congress against incumbent Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana).  Considering how active a member of Central Committee Shawver has been, it is expected that Shawver will be appointed to fill one of the vacancies in January.

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
15,015 13.59%
14,151 12.81%
11,521 10.43%
11,519 10.43%
11,061 10.01%
10,954 9.91%
10,900 9.86%
10,655 9.64%
10,000 9.05%
4,718 4.27%

 

(Cue my usual Nguyen disclaimer: The two 72nd Assembly District candidates, former Senator Janet Nguyen and Garden Grove Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen, are not related to each other, and neither of them are related to me. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 72nd Assembly District, Republican Central Committee, Tustin Unified School District | Leave a Comment »

OC’s Close Contests: 90.2% of Ballots Counted, D. Nguyen Within 17 Votes of Diep, Contreras Gains, Why TUSD Measure N is OC’s Closest Bond

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 11, 2020

The OC vote count continues, with approximately 9.8% of ballots still to be counted.

After counting 25,961 ballots yesterday, the Orange County Registrar of Voters reports 76,649 ballots remain while 706,425 have been counted, which means 90.2% of OC’s 783,074 ballots have already been counted (OC voter turnout in the 2020 primary appears to have settled at 47.9%).

As OC Political noted Thursday, the Secretary of State defines “Close Contests” as those races where there is a margin of 2% or less, so we are tracking Orange County’s close contests where there is a margin of 2% or less.

Because Central Committee races are exhausting to analyze and write about (and presumably exhausting to read about), only races where a new person is in sixth place (since the top six are elected in each district) are being covered, the count resulted in no changes in any of the Central Committee races in either major party.

72nd Assembly District

In the 72nd Assembly District race for the second slot to reach the top two against former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley), incumbent Tyler Diep (R-Westminster) saw his lead shrink to just a razor-thin 17 votes (0.02%) against Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) as late Democratic ballots continue to fuel her rise.  In all likelihood, Diedre Nguyen will overtake Diep in the next count, and Diep will become one of those rare legislative incumbents who loses re-election in the primary.

Diep’s lead has continued to fall, having previously been 291 votes (0.29%), 309 votes (0.31%), 1,050 votes (1.19%), 1,286 votes (1.54%), and 1,975 votes (2.56%).

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
35,199 34.38%
25,797 25.20%
25,780 25.18%
15,597 15.24%

 

1st Supervisorial District

In the 1st Supervisorial District race for the second slot to reach the runoff against incumbent Andrew Do (R-Westminster), Councilman Sergio Contreras (D-Westminster) grew his lead over Mayor Miguel Pulido (D-Santa Ana) to 1,386 votes (1.70%).

While there has been one post-Election Night count with Pulido gaining, Contreras has gained in most of those daily counts. In the prior counts, Contreras’s leads over Pulido were 1,293 votes (1.63%), 1,207 votes (1.59%), 865 votes (1.22%), 968 votes (1.47%), and 514 votes (0.82%).

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
35,540 43.65%
17,506 21.50%
16,120 19.80%
12,250 15.05%

 

Tustin Unified School District Measure N

Tustin Unified School District’s Measure N continues to steadily inch up ever so slightly, but it is unlikely to reach the 55% required to pass a local school bond.  In the prior count, it was 53.01% (1.99% short of 55%).

So far, 19,648 voters have cast votes on Measure N.  Assuming the 90.2% of ballots counted is uniform across the County (which certainly isn’t the case, but it’s the only number available and is better than no estimate, and doesn’t account for undervotes or overvotes), that would leave 2,135 ballots for Measure N.  If there are 2,000 ballots remaining for Tustin Unified School District, that would require 73.08% of those ballots to be in favor of the bond.  That would be an astronomically high percentage for a 2020 primary election bond.

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
10,442 53.15%
9,206 46.85%

Former Fullerton Elementary School District Trustee Chris Thompson (R) inquired in the comments on yesterday’s post about if there were any theories as to why Measure N got closer to passage than any other school bond in an election when all nine school bonds failed.

Tustin Unified School District had a combination of things that worked in its favor.  No other school district had all three of TUSD’s factors in favor (though obviously TUSD still fell short):

  • TUSD’s Measure N was one of only two OC bonds on the March 3 ballot that listed projects by campus (the other was Saddleback Valley Unified School District’s Measure M, though that had an overwhelming 62.75% of voters opposed, but SVUSD’s electorate is much more conservative than TUSD’s, and there was organized opposition); all other bonds listed potential projects without linking them to specific campuses or listed campuses without specific projects.  Greater specificity of projects likely helped voter confidence that there were specific items being approved, as opposed to the perception of a giant block of money being provided to the school district for miscellaneous facilities.
  • TUSD used a school facilities improvement district (SFID), which meant only 2/3 of the school district was voting on this bond, as the other 1/3 were outside the SFID.  That 1/3 were areas that already had Mello-Roos that went to schools, per TUSD’s web site on Measure N.  This presumably was to prevent voters from those areas to be upset about growing their school bills.  (TUSD is still paying off several bonds.)  While Capistrano Unified School District (CUSD) proposed bonds in two separate SFIDs (Measure H opposed by 56.36% and Measure I opposed by 54.60%), TUSD has a greater degree of trust with its community while CUSD has been roiled by community mistrust with recall elections, very rigorous campaigns where incumbents have been repeatedly tossed from office, etc.  Additionally, the CUSD electorate is simply more conservative than the TUSD electorate, and there was organized opposition.  Also, CUSD had a defeated bond just four years ago while TUSD’s last bond was eight years ago, but that one was successful.
  • TUSD had no organized opposition.  Brea Olinda Unified School District’s Measure G, Capistrano Unified School District’s Measures H and I, and Saddleback Valley Unified School District’s Meausre M all had organized opposition.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 72nd Assembly District, Capistrano Unified School District, Saddleback Valley Unified School District, Tustin Unified School District | 1 Comment »

OC’s Close Contests: 47.9% Turnout, 86.9% of Ballots Counted, Nguyen and Contreras Gain, TUSD Measure N Enters Close Contest Status, SD-37 No Longer Close

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2020

The OC vote count continues, with approximately 13.1% of ballots still to be counted.

After counting 57,747 ballots on Saturday and 38,692 yesterday, the Orange County Registrar of Voters reports 102,610 ballots remain while 680,464 have been counted, which means approximately 86.9% of OC’s 783,074 ballots have already been counted (OC voter turnout in the 2020 primary appears to be 47.9%).

As OC Political noted Thursday, the Secretary of State defines “Close Contests” as those races where there is a margin of 2% or less, so we are tracking Orange County’s close contests where there is a margin of 2% or less.

In the 37th Senate District, Professor Dave Min (D-Irvine) continues to grow his lead over Mayor Katrina Foley (D-Costa Mesa) to be the Democratic nominee against Senator John Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa), increasing that lead to 5,118 votes (2.38%) on Saturday and to 6,327 votes (2.71%) yesterday.  It no longer meets the “Close Contest” definition and is unlikely to return to that status, as Min has consistently grown his lead over Foley.

Because Central Committee races are exhausting to analyze and write about (and presumably exhausting to read about), only races where a new person is in sixth place (since the top six are elected in each district) are being covered, the two-day count resulted in no changes in any of the Central Committee races in either major party.

72nd Assembly District

In the 72nd Assembly District race for the second slot to reach the top two against former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley), incumbent Tyler Diep (R-Westminster) saw his lead continue to shrink against Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) as late Democratic ballots continue to fuel Diedre Nguyen.

Yesterday, Diep’s lead declined slightly to 291 votes (0.29%), but this was after Diep’s lead over Diedre Nguyen plunged on Saturday to 309 votes (0.31%). In the prior three counts, he had led by 1,050 (1.19%), 1,286 votes (1.54%), and 1,975 votes (2.56%).

In the 1st Supervisorial District race for the second slot to reach the runoff against incumbent Andrew Do (R-Westminster), Councilman Sergio Contreras (D-Westminster) grew his lead over Mayor Miguel Pulido (D-Santa Ana) ever so slightly to 1,293 votes (1.63%) after it had previously jumped to 1,207 votes (1.59%) on Saturday.  In the prior count, Contreras’s lead over Pulido was 865 votes (1.22%), 968 votes (1.47%), and 514 votes (0.82%).  While there has been one post-Election Night count with Pulido gaining, Contreras has gained in most counts.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
34,696 43.88%
16,900 21.37%
15,607 19.74%
11,874 15.02%

Tustin Unified School District Measure N

After inching up ever so slowly, Tustin Unified School District’s Measure N broke 53% in yesterday, therefore bringing it within 2% of the 55% required to pass a local bond and now meeting the definition of a close contest.  It is now 1.99% short of 55%.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
10,080 53.01%
8,937 46.99%

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, 72nd Assembly District, Tustin Unified School District | 5 Comments »

OC’s Close Contests: 43.6% Turnout, 82.1% of Ballots Counted, Nguyen and Pulido Gain, Foley Falls

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 7, 2020

The OC vote count continues, but we are spared Florida’s 2000 chad problem

After counting 45,647 ballots yesterday (and with more ballots arriving from the Post Office for the last time, as that was the deadline for ballots to arrive), the Orange County Registrar of Voters reports 127,867 ballots remain while 584,025 have been counted, which means 82.1% of OC’s 711,892 ballots have already been counted (we now know OC voter turnout in the 2020 primary is 43.6%).

As OC Political noted Thursday, the Secretary of State defines “Close Contests” as those races where there is a margin of 2% or less, so we are tracking Orange County’s close contests where there is a margin of 2% or less.

Because Central Committee races are exhausting to analyze and write about (and presumably exhausting to read about), only races where a new person is in sixth place (since the top six are elected in each district) are covered below.  So instead of Republican Central Committee for five districts and Democratic Central Committee for seven districts, only one Central Committee race is below: 69th District for the Republican Central Committee.

37th Senate District

In the 37th Senate District race for the second slot to reach the top two against Senator John Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa), UCI Law Professor Dave Min (D-Irvine) grew his lead over Mayor Katrina Foley (D-Costa Mesa) by 1,357 votes, which brings his lead to 3,804 votes (1.97%), and SD-37 may well lose its “close contest” designation in the next count or two.  He previously led by 2,447 votes (1.37%), and before that, he led by 2,333 votes (1.36%).

72nd Assembly District

In the 72nd Assembly District race for the second slot to reach the top two against former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley), incumbent Tyler Diep (R-Westminster) saw his lead continue to shrink against Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) as late Democratic ballots continue to fuel Diedre Nguyen.

Diep gained 1,310 votes in the latest count, but Diedre Nguyen gained 1,546 votes, narrowing Diep’s lead to 1,050 (1.19%). In the previous count, Diep had gained 1,177 votes while Diedre Nguyen gained 1,866 votes, which brought Diep’s lead down to 1,286 votes (1.54%).  Prior to that, Diep had 20,382 votes (26.40%) while Diedre Nguyen had 18,407 votes (23.84%), giving Diep a lead of 1,975 votes (2.56%).

While the Diep camp can’t be happy about their continual decline versus Diedre Nguyen, they are probably relieved the decline has slowed.  A decline of 109 votes after the two added 2,856 votes is certainly better for them than the 686-vote decline after the two added 3,043 votes.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
30,753 34.72%
22,869 25.82%
21,819 24.63%
13,135 14.83%
In the 1st Supervisorial District race for the second slot to reach the runoff against incumbent Andrew Do (R-Westminster), Councilman Sergio Contreras (D-Westminster) saw his lead over Mayor Miguel Pulido (D-Santa Ana) shrink by 103 votes, so Contreras now leads Pulido by 865 votes (1.22%).  Previously, Contreras led Pulido by 968 votes (1.47%).  In the count before that, Contreras led Pulido by 514 votes (0.82%).
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
31,601 44.56%
14,797 20.87%
13,932 19.65%
10,585 14.93%

Republican Central Committee, 69th District

In the race for the sixth and final seat from the 69th District on the Republican Central Committee, Gisela Contreras (R-Santa Ana) and Councilwoman Ceci Iglesias (R-Santa Ana) flip-flopped again between fifth and sixth place slot, with Jon Paul White (R-Santa Ana) remaining in seventh place.  Iglesias leads White by 487 votes (1.51%) while Contreras leads White by 479 votes (1.49%).  Previously, Iglesias led White by 432 votes (1.44%) while Contreras led White by 443 votes (1.47%).  Prior to that count, Iglesias led White by 426 votes (1.46%) while Contreras led White by 421 votes (1.44%).
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
4,687 14.55%
4,100 12.73%
4,097 12.72%
3,945 12.25%
3,625 11.25%
3,617 11.23%
3,138 9.74%
2,748 8.53%
2,258 7.01%

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, 72nd Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Leave a Comment »

OC’s Close Contests: AD-72 Now Reaches Close Contest Status

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 6, 2020

After counting 29,601 ballots yesterday (and with more ballots arriving from the Post Office), the Orange County Registrar of Voters reports 139,058 ballots remain while 538,378 have been counted, which means 79.5% of OC’s ballots have already been counted (though a small number of additional ballots could arrive today from the Post Office that were postmarked by March 3; today is the last day ballots can reach the Registrar and still be counted).

As OC Political noted yesterday, the Secretary of State defines “Close Contests” as those races where there is a margin of 2% or less, so we are tracking Orange County’s close contests where there is a margin of 2% or less.

The race for the 72nd Assembly District has now narrowed enough to meet that 2% criteria, as Assemblyman Tyler Diep (R-Westminster) battles Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) for the second slot in the top two to advance to November with former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley), who holds a strong lead for first place.

Because Central Committee races are exhausting to analyze and write about (and presumably exhausting to read about), only races where a new person is in sixth place (since the top six are elected in each district) are covered below.  So instead of Republican Central Committee for five districts and Democratic Central Committee for seven districts, only three Central Committee races are below: 69th District for the Central Committees of both major parties and 74th District for the Democratic Central Committee.

37th Senate District

In the 37th Senate District race for the second slot to reach the top two against Senator John Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa), UCI Law Professor Dave Min (D-Irvine) grew his lead over Mayor Katrina Foley (D-Costa Mesa) by 114 votes to 2,447 votes (1.37%).  He previously led by 2,333 votes (1.36%).

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
88,681 49.55%
D) 46,368 25.91%
43,921 24.54%

72nd Assembly District

In the 72nd Assembly District race for the second slot to reach the top two against former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley), incumbent Tyler Diep (R-Westminster) saw his lead dramatically shrink against Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) as late Democratic ballots fueled a surge for Diedre Nguyen.

In the prior count, Diep had 20,382 votes (26.40%) while Diedre Nguyen had 18,407 votes (23.84%), giving Diep a lead of 1,975 votes (2.56%).  In the latest count, Diep gained 1,177 votes but Diedre Nguyen gained 1,866 votes, narrowing Diep’s lead to 1,286 votes (1.54%).

The Diep camp will be nervous and the Diedre Nguyen camp will be optimistic as late Democratic ballots continue to be counted, threatening to turn an all-Republican November contest in AD-72 into an all-Nguyen November contest in AD-72.

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
28,956 34.83%
21,559 25.93%
20,273 24.39%
12,345 14.85%

1st Supervisorial District

In the 1st Supervisorial District race for the second slot to reach the runoff against incumbent Andrew Do (R-Westminster), Councilman Sergio Contreras (D-Westminster) grew his lead over Mayor Miguel Pulido (D-Santa Ana) by 454 votes to 968 votes (1.47%).  Contreras previously led Pulido by 514 votes (0.82%).
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
29,513 44.67%
13,820 20.92%
12,852 19.45%
9,877 14.95%

Republican Central Committee, 69th District

In the race for the sixth and final seat from the 69th District on the Republican Central Committee, Gisela Contreras (R-Santa Ana) grew her lead so much that she leapt into fifth place.  It is now Councilwoman Ceci Iglesias (R-Santa Ana) who holds the sixth place slot, with Jon Paul White (R-Santa Ana) remaining in seventh place.  Contreras leads White by 443 votes (1.47%) while Iglesias leads White by 432 votes (1.44%).  Previously, Contreras led White by 421 votes (1.44%) and Iglesias led White by 426 votes (1.46%).
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
4,370 14.54%
3,825 12.72%
3,821 12.71%
3,689 12.27%
3,371 11.21%
3,360 11.18%
2,928 9.74%
2,584 8.60%
2,112 7.03%
For the sixth and final spot on the Democratic Central Committee from the 69th District, Manny Escamilla (D-Santa Ana) overtook Ariana Arestegui (D-Garden Grove).  Escamilla now leads Arestegui by 15 votes (0.02%). Previously Escamilla trailed Arestegui by 5 votes (0.01%).  Four candidates are within 2% of Escamilla.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
8,446 11.84%
8,342 11.69%
7,686 10.77%
6,511 9.13%
5,444 7.63%
5,322 7.46%
5,307 7.44%
5,032 7.05%
4,353 6.10%
4,180 5.86%
3,767 5.28%
3,535 4.95%
3,427 4.80%

Democratic Central Committee, 74th District

In the race for the final seat on the Democratic Central Committee from the 74th District, incumbent Janice Burstin (D-Laguna Woods) overtook College Professor Samila Amanyraoufpoor (D-Irvine) in the latest count to lead by 165 votes (0.13%).  Previously, Amanyraoufpoor led Burstin by 83 votes (0.07%).  Five candidates are within 2% of Burstin.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
11,514 8.85%
10,190 7.83%
10,065 7.73%
9,999 7.68%
9,852 7.57%
9,633 7.40%
9,468 7.27%
8,714 6.70%
8,314 6.39%
7,679 5.90%
7,134 5.48%
6,426 4.94%
5,882 4.52%
4,631 3.56%
4,532 3.48%
3,591 2.76%
2,527 1.94%

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, 72nd Assembly District | 1 Comment »