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Posts Tagged ‘Christina Avalos’

2012 General Election Predictions: 68th Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 18, 2012

I have heard that this is the most Republican seat in California prior to 2010 redistricting, and this might still be the most conservative seat looking at the numbers.

Looking at the makeup of the 68th Assembly district it is apparent that not only do Republicans have almost a 20% registration advantage but the 21% of DTS voters are some of the most conservative voters in California:

The numbers here are pretty indicative of a big Wagner victory in November especially considering Republicans won every partisan election here in 2010. Despite the slim odds that we see on the map I will still break down this race as I have done the other ones.

Wagner has strong name ID here having not only served in the Assembly but also for his time on the South Orange County Community College District. Avalos is best known for her time as perennial candidate for Congress running against Ed Royce.

This race much like many others also had a dress rehearsal in June with the results leading me to believe Wagner will coast in November:

Member of the State Assembly; District 68

  • Donald P. “Don” Wagner, Republican ………. 43,241 votes 69.2%
  • Christina Avalos, Democratic ………. 19,254 votes 30.8%

Financially Wagner is also in much better shape than his opponent having raised over $70,000. Avalos has not raised enough to trigger online filing.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Don Wagner

Posted in 68th Assembly District | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Useless, Meaningless, Ridiculous Campaigns In June

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 16, 2012

One of the major flaws that I have found in Prop 14 is the way t moves candidates from June to November. As an example, if Troy Edgar was running for Supervisor with the same field that he had in the Assembly race, and received over 50% of the vote he would win and no November election would take place.


(Infamous Abel Maldonado)

However, if that same race was to take place for a seat in the California State Assembly the race under the new Prop 14 rules even if a candidate received only 1 vote they would still advance to November in a head to head race. This therefore creates a number of races that essentially are glorified polls in June.

Races that would fall under this category include:

SD 29- A race between State Senator and Workers Rights Attorney Greg Diamond. I am hoping that Huff wins this race based on his policy decisions (Even though he is a bit of a squish on certain issues.). Greg Diamond is an Orange Juice blogger, a very smart man (he will let you know it, too) with an education that would rival my fellow blogger Chris Nguyen, and his best quality is that he reads this blog.

SD 37- This race is between sitting Senator Mimi Walters and perennial candidate Steve Young. Walter s is running for reelection after having defeated Harry Sidhu in her first race for Senate. Steve Young appears willing to run for any seat as I believe this is the 3rd campaign I have seen him run.

AD 55- Curt Hagman against Greg Fritchle. This race is a true yawner as it involves a district that covers Orange, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino. Hagman is a former Chino Hills City Councilman that defeated Larry Dick for this seat back in 2008. He is now running for his last term in the Assembly. (Did I mention that I am happy to have Don Wagner as my Assemblyman).

AD 65- Chris Norby is running against Sharon Quirk-Silva for this seat. This race actually does matter in June, despite the fact that both candidates will advance to November. If Quirk-Silva does well in June, we could see some more Democratic resources be poured into this race. It is important for Norby to crush her in June.

AD 68- Assemblyman Don Wagner is running against perennial candidate Christina Avalos. The new AD 68 is pretty awesome and a huge step up for Anaheim Hills from the old AD 60. Wagner is in probably the safest seat for any Republican Assembly member in California, although I may be wrong on this particular statistic.

AD 73- This one will be interesting to watch in terms of the mail that gets sent out with Assemblywoman Diane Harkey facing off against infamous Capistrano Unified School District teacher James Corbett. The question comes down to whether or not mail gets sent out in June, or if it is held off until the November election.

1st Supervisorial District-  Some of you may think that you have caught me slipping up, as this race will be decided in June. However read the title and you will understand. This race will be a good one to chuckle over. Rocco is best known for his conspiracy that he is part of a murder plot concocted by Albertsons, Smokecraft Sausage, and Kodak.

I would say to sit back and enjoy watching the races to see who wins, but in this case nobody actually wins. This is with the obvious exception of the 1st Supervisorial District.

Posted in 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

California Republican Party’s Endorsements for OC: Royce, Campbell, Hayden, DeLong, Rohrabacher, Issa, Huff, Walters, Hagman, Norby, Wagner, Harkey, Mansoor

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 20, 2012

The California Republican Party has endorsed in most races for Congress, the State Senate, and the State Assembly.  Emami blogged about the CRP endorsement of Elizabeth Emken for the US Senate while I indirectly linked to the list of endorsements in this post (via CapitolAlert).

However, we never really discussed the state Republican Party endorsements here on OC Political, so here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s US Congressional delegation:

  • CD-39: Congressman Ed Royce (R-Fullerton) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
  • CD-45: Congressman John Campbell (R-Irvine) was endorsed over Small Business Owner John Webb.
    While the CRP endorsed Campbell, the OCGOP did not.
    I covered the OCGOP endorsement drama in this race here, and Emami covered it here.
  • CD-47: Long Beach Councilman Gary DeLong was endorsed over former Congressman Steve Kuykendall, an OC man named Steve Foley, and Small Business Owner Sanford Kahn.
    The Democrats running for this open seat are State Senator Alan Lowenthal, College Professor Peter Mathews, and inexplicably, a married couple are both running: Dr. Jay Shah and Charity President Usha Shah.  I’d pay to go to the Shah family dinner the night before the election.  It must be awkward to be one of the Shahs’ two adult sons; hope they live outside CD-47.
    As a legitimate swing district with no incumbent, this is one of the most interesting races involving Orange County.
  • CD-48: Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
  • CD-49: Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Vista) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.

Here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s State Senate delegation (in both cases, they’re the sole Republican running; I covered both those races here):

Here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s State Assembly delegation:

  • AD-55: Assemblyman Curt Hagman (R-Chino Hills) was endorsed is the sole Republican running.
  • AD-65: Assemblyman Chris Norby (R-Fullerton) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
    Emami covered this race here.
  • AD-68: Assemblyman Don Wagner (R-Irvine) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
    I did an article on his opponent, Christina Avalos (D-Orange), here.  Emami covered her here.
  • AD-69: No endorsement was made.  OC Eligibility Technician Jose Moreno is the sole Republican running.  I sort of covered him here.
  • AD-72: No endorsement was made.
    Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar, OC Board of Education Trustee Long Pham, and Businessman Travis Allen are the three Republicans running for this open seat.
    Click here to see our various articles related to AD-72.
  • AD-73: Assemblywoman Diane Harkey (R-Dana Point) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.

For the full list of all Congressional, State Senate, and State Assembly endorsements by the California Republican Party, click here.

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working in the office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who was endorsed in AD-65.)

Posted in 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Feeling Lucky! Newest California Lottery Winners: Webb, Garcia, Varaseth, Walters, Norby, Avalos, Daly, Allen, Harkey, Daigle, Nguyen, Spitzer, Downing, Night, Dumitru, Dyrud, Nagel, Anderson, Aiken

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 16, 2012

LotteryYesterday afternoon, the newest winners of the California lottery were announced: Businessman John Webb, Businessman Pat Garcia, Businessman Ron Varaseth, Senator Mimi Walters, Assemblyman Chris Norby, Perennial candidate Christina Avalos, Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly, Businessman Travis Allen, Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, Supervisor Janet Nguyen, former Supervisor/Assemblyman Todd Spitzer, Businesswoman Karla Downing, Central Committee Member Baron Night, Orange Councilman Jon Dumitru, Central Committee Member Gwen Dyrud, Central Committee Member Steve Nagel, San Clemente Planning Commissioner Nesa Anderson, and Office Clerk Jon Aiken.

No, these 19 people are not splitting a $200,000,000 jackpot.  They won the Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery.

What’s the candidate order lottery, you ask?

Well, California law requires a lottery to determine the order of candidates on the ballot.  Why does this law exist?  Studies of the primacy effect showed the candidate at the top of the ballot gains as much as a 5% increase in votes.  Consequently, in 1975, California legislators adopted a law mandating an end to the alphabetical listing of candidates (likely to the chagrin of Sam Aanestad and Dick Ackerman but the joy of Mary Young and Ed Zschau) and requiring a lottery before each election.

The Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery has determined the alphabet for the June primary to be UNADIVXWQGOZLTRKSJHMCBFPYE.

This applies to most races on the ballot, excluding races that cross county lines (for OC, these would be CD-38, CD-39, CD-47, CD-49, SD-29, and AD-55).

The primacy effect is weaker when there are fewer candidates on the ballot, and when there are higher-profile campaigns.  Being at the top of the ballot is most valuable for low-profile campaigns with large numbers of candidates.  That means that of the 19 people I listed above, the biggest winners in this lottery are the Central Committee candidates, so the biggest congratulations goes to the following Republican Central Committee Candidates for their 5% vote bonus:

  • 55th District: Karla Downing, Small Business Owner (1st of 10 candidates)
  • 65th District: Baron Night, Incumbent (1st of 11 candidates)
  • 68th District: Jon Dumitru, City Councilman (1st of 18 candidates)
  • 69th District: Gwen A. Dyrud, Appointed Incumbent (1st of 10 candidates)
  • 72nd District: Steve A. Nagel, Incumbent (1st of 14 candidates)
  • 73rd District: Nesa Anderson, Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman (1st of a stunning 22 candidates)
  • 74th District: Jon Aiken, Office Clerk (1st of 16 candidates)

For the races that cross county lines, each county does its own lottery, so here are the OC Registrar’s lottery results: DMNESVTUHKWGXFCIQYAORZPLJB.

Congratulations to these candidates who won the Registrar’s lottery and will appear at the top of the ballot in the Orange County portions of their districts:

  • 38th Congressional District: Linda Sanchez (D), United States Representative (1st of 3)
  • 39th Congressional District: D’Marie Mulattieri (DCorrection: NPP), Community Volunteer (1st of 3)
  • 47th Congressional District: Gary DeLong (R), Local Small Businessman (1st of 8)
  • 49th Congressional District: Albin Novinec (NPP), United States Marine (1st of 4)
  • 29th Senate District: Greg Diamond (D), Workers’ Rights Attorney (1st of 2)
  • 55th Assembly District: Curt Hagman (R), Member of the State Assembly (1st of 2)

You would think that with electronic voting now, the names could be randomized for every poll voter (obviously, we’d still need the lottery for absentee voters).

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working for Assemblyman Chris Norby, one of the lottery winners, as the letter N came in second in the alphabet behind U, though no one with a last name starting with U is running in all of Orange County.)

Posted in 29th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

Christina Avalos Finally Makes Up Her Mind

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on February 28, 2012

In news that will clearly make our OC Political co-founder Chris Nguyen very happy, Christina Avalos has finally made up her mind on what office she will be running for. After what clearly took a great deal of thought and pondering she decided to turn in her “Sigs in Lieu” for the 68th Assembly District against Don Wagner.

If it were up to me I would have liked to have seen her run against Loretta for the Congressional seat, but we can’t always get what we want. This is not a big deal for Assemblyman Wagner as Republicans carry a 46% to 28% registration advantage in this seat.

As a resident of Anaheim Hills which is part of the new 68th Assembly District  am glad to finally have an Assemblyman that is from Orange County. Since I have been registered to vote I have been stuck with Bob Huff (Diamond Bar) and Curt Hagman (Chino Hills). Don’t get me wrong Huff and Hagman are solid but I would refer to be represented by somebody from Orange County.

Avalos has lost numerous races in the past and is way to far to the left for this specific district. Don Wagner has been a solid Republican voice in the legislature and does a great deal to support candidates for local office in his district.

Posted in 68th Assembly District | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Christina Avalos, Make Up Your #@%$ Mind on What You’re Running For!

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 20, 2012

Loretta Sanchez, Ed Royce, Don Wagner

Christina Avalos's Opponents - From Just the 2012 Elections

In honor of Presidents’ Day, I’m posting on someone who’s now run for office more times than either George W. Bush or Barack Obama.

Christina Avalos needs to make up her mind on what she’s running for.  In the span of two months, the Orange Democrat has pulled signature-in-lieu petitions for three different offices.

On December 30, Avalos pulled the signature-in-lieu petitions for the 46th Congressional District (her home district) to run against incumbent Loretta Sanchez.

Then on January 20, Avalos pulled the signature-in-lieu petitions to run for the 39th Congressional District against incumbent Ed Royce.

Then on February 17, Avalos pulled the signature-in-lieu petitions to run for the 68th Assembly District (her home district) to run against incumbent Don Wagner.

Maybe she’ll pull for U.S. Senate in March to run against incumbent Dianne Feinstein.

According to the great and comprehensive elections database at JoinCalifornia.com, perennial candidate Avalos ran against Chris Cox in 1998 and Ed Royce in 2002, 2008, and 2010.  In 2004, she lost the primary to fellow Democrat J. Tilman Williams, who went on to lose to Royce.  In 2006, she lost the primary to fellow Democrat Florice Orea Hoffman.  Cox won 67% of the vote in 1998, and Royce won no less than 63% of the vote in each of these five elections.  I have no idea what happened in 2000 when Avalos didn’t appear to run for anything.

On behalf of the people of Orange County: Christina Avalos, make up your #@%$ mind on what you’re running for!

Posted in 39th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 68th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »