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OC’s Top Ten 2020 Primary Election Stories

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 4, 2020

With 158,000 votes remaining to count in Orange County (which is actually 30,000 fewer ballots than were remaining the morning after the 2018 primary election), here are the top ten OC Primary Election stories after the completion of the first night of results:

  1. AD-72: Nguyen vs. Diep Continues with an All-Republican General Election
    I’m starting a new company to sell larger mailboxes to residents of the 72nd Assembly District. After a $1.6 million primary, Republicans have finished in the top two for AD-72. What had been one of the closest swing seats in the state now becomes a guaranteed Republican win in November. Of the aforementioned $1.6 million, $1.5 million of it was spent between former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley) and incumbent Assemblyman Tyler Diep (R-Westminster). Spoiler Bijan Mohseni (D-Los Alamitos) prevented Councilwoman Deidre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) from reaching the top two.

    After running to the right in the primary, Janet Nguyen and Diep now face the adventure of wooing Democratic voters. Eight years ago, this same district had an all-Republican November general election, in which Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) upset Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos).

  2. BOS-1: Incumbent Do to Face Off Against Latino Democrat Officeholder…But It’s Unclear Which One
    As was widely expected, incumbent Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster) is headed to a November run-off election. However, what isn’t clear is whether his November opponent will be Councilman Sergio Contreras (D-Westminster) or Mayor Miguel Pulido (D-Santa Ana). After the first night of results, Contreras leads Pulido by just 382 votes, or 0.64% of the vote. The Democratic Party of Orange County endorsed Contreras, but Pulido has been Mayor of the district’s largest city for the past 26 years.
  3. CD-45: Raths Emerges from Republican Pack to Challenge Incumbent Democrat Porter
    After a $2.6 million primary, of which $1.65 million was spent on the Republican side, Councilman Greg Raths (R-Mission Viejo) won 18.9% of the vote, defeating five other Republicans to reach the top two to face off against incumbent freshman Democrat Katie Porter (D-Irvine). Raths raised $451,637 and spent $325,491, spending nearly $100,000 less than Councilwoman Peggy Huang (R-Yorba Linda) and less than half of what Councilman Don Sedgwick (R-Laguna Hills) spent. Sedgwick had raised almost double what Raths did, and Sparks raised about $44,000 more than Raths did. Raths faces a tall order in the general election, as Porter sits atop a $3 million warchest.
  4. SD-37: Who is Going to Be Moorlach’s Opponent?
    As was widely expected, Senator John Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa) came in first place. What isn’t clear is who will advance to the November general election to face off against Moorlach: UCI Law Professor Dave Min (D-Irvine) or Mayor Katrina Foley (D-Costa Mesa). After the first night of results, Min leads Foley by just 1,569 votes, or 0.95% of the vote. The California Democratic Party endorsed Min, but Foley is the directly-elected Mayor of the district’s third-largest city, holding City and School District offices for the past 16 years.
  5. Most (Maybe All) Nine School Bonds Fail
    In most elections, most school bonds pass, but this election, the voters were particularly unfriendly to the school bonds, with a majority voting against the Brea-Olinda Unified School District’s Measure G, Capistrano Unified School District’s Measures H and I, Fullerton Elementary School District’s Measure J, Fullerton Joint Union High School District’s Measure K, and Saddleback Valley Unified School District’s Measure M.

    Anaheim Union High School District’s Measure B and Rancho Santiago Community College District’s Measure L had a majority backing them, but both are unlikely to reach the necessary 55% margin to pass (both are below 52%). Tustin Unified School District’s Measure N is at 52.61% and still has a chance to get to 55% since the remaining ballots are expected to be disproportionately Democratic ballots since the competitive Democratic presidential primary caused those voters to cast later ballots.

  6. AD-73: Brough in Fourth Place with Davies Likely to Be an Assemblywoman
    Starting election night in the top two, embattled Assemblyman Bill Brough (R-Dana Point) fell to fourth place by the time election night was complete. Mayor Laurie Davies (R-Laguna Niguel) and Business Services Director Scott Rhinehart (D-Mission Viejo) will advance to the top two in one of California’s safest Republican Assembly seats. Homeland Security Attorney Chris Duncan (D-San Clemente) came in third ahead of Brough while Councilman Ed Sachs (R-Mission Viejo) came in fifth behind Brough. Brough was dogged by allegations of sexual harassment and campaign finance misspending, with Davies winning the endorsement of the Republican Party of Orange County.
  7. County Board of Ed. Trustee Area 3: How Much Does it Take to Beat Ken Williams? No One Knows, But $750,000 Isn’t Enough
    County Board of Education Trustee Ken Williams (R-Silverado) won more than 61% of the vote in a head-to-head race with self-funding millionaire Andy Thorburn (D-Villa Park). Thorburn was dubbed “the Mike Bloomberg of OC” by the Liberal OC and ended up putting more than $750,000 of his own money into the race. As a resident of this Trustee Area, I personally received eight mailers from Thorburn, with several attacking Williams as being too extreme for Orange County. Thorburn ran as a carpetbagger for the 39th Congressional District and almost ran for 3rd Supervisorial District. (Only Brea, Yorba Linda, and a portion of Anaheim Hills are in both the 39th Congressional District and Board of Ed Trustee Area 3.) Despite Thorburn’s $750,000 onslaught, the popular Williams cruised to a seventh term.
  8. County Board of Ed. Trustee Area 4: Shaw Wins 33.7% to Deliver Conservative Supermajority as Democrats Shoot Selves in Foot
    Unlike every other seat on the primary election ballot, County Board of Education seats are won by plurality vote (city councils, school boards, and special districts on the November general election ballot are also won by plurality). As the sole Republican on the ballot, Professor/Councilman Tim Shaw (R-La Habra) came in first place with just 33.7% of the vote.

    Three Democrats split the remainder of the vote, with At-Risk Youth Counselor Vicki Calhoun (D-Fullerton) coming in second with 26.8% of the vote, ahead of Educator/Attorney Paulette Chaffee (D-Fullerton), who got 22.4% of the vote and Councilman/Businessman Jordan Brandman (D-Anaheim) who got 17.1% of the vote. Chaffee (whose husband Doug Chaffee beat Shaw for Supervisor in 2018) spent over $124,000, Brandman spent over $64,000, and Calhoun spent so little that she was not required to file campaign finance reports: Calhoun didn’t even buy a ballot statement.The three Democrats got a combined 66.3% of the vote. With one fewer Democrat in the race, it is likely that Shaw would have fallen to second place.

    Consequently, with the election of Tim Shaw and the re-election of Ken Williams, there is now a conservative supermajority on the County Board of Education for the first time in memory (conservative Trustees Mari Barke and Lisa Sparks are not up for election until 2022).

  9. BOS-3: No One Wins Their Hometown…Again
    For the second election in a row, no candidate won their hometown in the race for Third District Supervisor. As expected, Supervisor Don Wagner (R-Irvine) won re-election without a run-off necessary since he achieved a majority of the votes. Specifically, he won 54.4% while attorney Ashleigh Aitken (D-Anaheim) won 45.6%. Despite winning most of the Third District, Wagner actually lost Irvine. Aitken lost Anaheim Hills (the only part of Anaheim in the Third Supervisorial District) handily to Wagner. Similarly, in 2018, Anaheim Hills came out strong for Republican Harry Sidhu over Democrat Aitken in the race for Mayor of Anaheim. In the 2019 special election to fill this supervisorial seat after Supervisor Todd Spitzer (R-Orange) was elected District Attorney, all seven candidates lost their hometowns. This strange streak of hostile hometowns continues.
  10. Central Committee: New Bipartisan Strategy Emerging – Get a Central Committee Seat While Running for Office on the Same Ballot
    In a fascinating phenomenon, candidates for Congress or Assembly are concurrently running for Central Committee. Nowhere was that clearer than the 68th Assembly District, where every challenger to Assemblyman Steven Choi (R-Irvine) ran for Central Committee. Melissa Fox (D-Irvine), Eugene Fields (D-Orange), and Benjamin Yu (R-Lake Forest) all won seats on their respective parties’ Central Committees for the 68th Assembly District while Choi already holds a Central Committee seat by virtue of being the Republican nominee for Assembly.

    Cynthia Thacker (R-Fullerton) in the 65th Assembly District, James Waters (R-Anaheim) in the 46th Congressional District (running for Central Committee in the 65th Assembly District), Brian Burley (R-Huntington Beach) in the 48th Congressional District (running for Central Committee in the 72nd Assembly District), Amy Phan West (R-Westminster) in the 47th Congressional District (running for Central Committee in the 72nd Assembly District), Laurie Davies (R-Laguna Niguel) in the 73rd Assembly District, Ed Sachs (R-Mission Viejo) in the 73rd Assembly District, Greg Raths (R-Mission Viejo) in the 45th Congressional District (running for Central Committee in the 73rd Assembly District), Diane Dixon (R-Newport Beach) in the 74th Assembly District, and Kelly Ernby (R-Huntington Beach) in the 74th Assembly District all won elections for Central Committee.

    In other words, a full dozen candidates for Congress and Assembly won seats on their parties’ respective Central Committees. Half of them (Fox, Thacker, Waters, Davies, Raths, and Dixon) will vacate their directly-elected Central Committee seats because they have won the ex officio positions on their respective Central Committees by virtue of being the nominees of their party for Congress or Assembly.

“As Expected” News

  • The 39th Congressional District will be a rematch (from 2018) between incumbent Gil Cisneros (D-Fullerton) and former Assemblywoman Young Kim (R-Fullerton).
  • The 48th Congressional District will feature incumbent Harley Rouda (D-Laguna Beach) vs. Supervisor Michelle Steel (R-Surfside).
  • The 49th Congressional District will feature incumbent Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) vs. Councilman Brian Maryott (R-San Juan Capistrano).
  • The 29th Senate District will be a rematch (from 2016) between incumbent Ling Ling Chang (R-Diamond Bar) and former Senator Josh Newman (D-Fullerton).
  • In the 55th Assembly District, Assemblyman Phillip Chen (R-Yorba Linda) won the primary in commanding enough fashion that Councilman Andrew Rodriguez (D-Walnut) is unlikely to be able to mount a rigorous challenge to Chen in the November general election.
  • The 74th Assembly District will be the most hotly contested between the two parties, as Assemblywoman Cottie Petrie-Norris (D-Laguna Beach) faces off against Councilwoman Diane Dixon (R-Newport Beach).
  • County Board of Education Trustee Beckie Gomez (D-Tustin) defeated former Councilman Jim Palmer (R-Tustin) and former School Board Member/Perennial Candidate/Lunatic/Convicted Ketchup Thief Steve Rocco (NPP-Santa Ana) to hang on to her Trustee Area 1 seat.
  • In other Orange County seats, Congresswoman Linda Sanchez (D-Norwalk), Congressman Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Congressman Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach), Assemblyman Tom Daly (D-Anaheim), and Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva (D-Fullerton) all face nominal opposition in November and are expected to cruise to re-election.

(Cue my usual Nguyen disclaimer: Former Senator Janet Nguyen and Garden Grove Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen are not related to each other, and neither of them are related to me. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

(In the interest of full disclosure, Dynamic Strategies, the consulting firm that owns OC Political, are the general consultants for 74th Assembly District candidate Diane Dixon, and did some last-minute work for County Board of Education Trustee Ken Williams.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 45th Congressional District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, Orange County Board of Education | 1 Comment »

Orange County Young Republicans’ Endorsements

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on February 19, 2020

The Orange County Young Republicans have announced their endorsements for the March 3, 2020 Primary Election.

Posted in 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

3 Weeks, 3 More Vacant Seats: Irvine, Santa Ana, and Stanton

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 14, 2019

In January, I wrote about OC’s Five Vacant Seats: OC Supervisor for the Third District, Fullerton City Council, Orange City Council, Seal Beach City Council District 1, and Santa Ana Unified School District Board of Education.

Well, in the last three weeks, three more vacancies have developed in Orange County.

Irvine

The most well known vacancy is the one in Irvine that will result when Supervisor-Elect Don Wagner (R) vacates the Mayor’s seat.  However, there are numerous misconceptions about which vacancy in Irvine will result.

Some candidates claimed during the Supervisorial election that if Wagner won, there would be a special election for Mayor.  That is false.  Some press accounts claimed that the Council would appoint the new Mayor.  That is based on out-of-date information.

Under current Irvine ordinances as authorized by the Irvine City Charter, Mayor Pro Tem Christina Shea (R) will automatically succeed Wagner as Mayor once he vacates the Mayor’s seat.

The vacancy in Irvine is for Christina Shea’s Council seat.  Under the Irvine City Charter, the City Council has 60 days to appoint a new Councilmember after Shea vacates her Council seat (i.e. after she becomes Mayor after Wagner resigns).  If the Council fails to appoint a person to fill the vacancy, then there will be a special election.  Whether appointed or elected, Shea’s successor will serve through the November 2020 election.

Santa Ana Ward 4

The next most well known vacancy is in Santa Ana.  Ward 4 Councilman Roman Reyna (D), who was just elected in November, resigned effective March 1 as part of a settlement agreement in a lawsuit that challenged his eligibility to run for the Council seat in the first place.

Under the Santa Ana City Charter, the City Council has 30 days to appoint a new Councilmember to serve through the November 2022 election.  If the Council fails to appoint a person by March 31, then there will be a special election on November 5, which will be consolidated with the Santa Ana Unified School District special election.

Six people met Tuesday’s deadline for applications.  The Council is scheduled to interview the applicants next Tuesday, March 19.  The applicants are:

  • Phil Bacerra (D), a former Santa Ana Planning Commissioner who lost the Council election to Reyna and was the plaintiff in the lawsuit that led to Reyna’s resignation
  • Kenneth Khanh Nguyen (NPP), a Santa Ana Planning Commissioner
  • Jennifer Oliva (D), a Santa Ana Arts and Culture Commissioner
  • Gale Oliver, Jr. (NPP), a Baptist bishop
  • Phillip Ortiz, Jr. (NPP), an Internet installer
  • Maricela Vallejo (NPP), a Santa Ana Personnel Board Member

Stanton

The least publicized vacancy is the one in Stanton.  Mayor Pro Tem Al Ethans (R) resigned effective February 28 after more than 22 years on the Stanton City Council.

As Stanton is a general law city, the City Council has 60 days to appoint a new Councilmember to serve through the November 2020 election.  If the Council fails to appoint a person by April 29, then there will be a special election on November 5.

Applications for the seat are due at 5:00 PM today.  A City Council subcommittee is scheduled to meet with the applicants the last week of March, and the Council is slated to meet on April 23 to vote on a potential appointee.

Status of OC’s Eight Vacancies

Here’s a quick run-down on every vacancy in Orange County since the November 2018 general election.  There are 2 completed elections (Supervisor and Seal Beach), 1 appointment completed (Fullerton), 2 pending special elections (Orange and Santa Ana School Board), 2 pending appointments (Santa Ana and Stanton), and 1 pending vacancy (Irvine).  All of these seats are up for election again in 2020, except for Santa Ana and Seal Beach which will be up for election again in 2022:

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, Irvine, Santa Ana, Stanton | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Election Day in BOS-3: $1.2 Million+ in Spending Ends Today

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 12, 2019

Moments ago, the polls opened in the Third Supervisorial District, as voters decide who will fill the seat vacated by now-District Attorney Todd Spitzer for the remaining 22 months of his unexpired term.  In 51 weeks (i.e. 1 week short of a year), voters in the Third District will return to the polls for the primary election for the same seat for the next four-year term.

Ballots Received

While the polls close at 8 PM tonight, it is widely expected that vote-by-mail (absentee) ballots will comprise the overwhelming supermajority of the votes.  As of yesterday, 46,632 ballots had been received by the Registrar of Voters.  Of those, 5,466 arrived yesterday, and party breakdown on those ballots is not yet available.  Of the other 41,166 ballots that had arrived by Friday, 44.7% were from Republicans, 32.6% were from Democrats, 20.1% were from No Party Preference (NPP) voters, and the remaining 2.6% were from third party voters.

The 46,632 ballots received are 19.8% of the 236,026 vote-by-mail ballots issued by the Registrar.  That number will of course climb as more ballots arrive in the mail today at the Registrar’s office, additional vote-by-mail ballots are delivered directly to polling places, and still other vote-by-mail ballots are mailed today to arrive at the Registrar’s office by Friday’s receipt deadline under state law.

There are 341,809 registered voters in the Third District.  Those 46,632 vote-by-mail ballots received are 13.6% of registered voters, but of course that turnout number does not include any of the poll voters (myself included) who only began casting ballots moments ago nor does it include the various vote-by-mail ballots not yet received that I described above.

Campaign Spending

Over $1.2 million was spent in this election between the candidates, political parties, and independent expenditures, with over $500,000 in support of Loretta Sanchez (D), over $400,000 in support of Don Wagner (R), and over $100,000 in support of Kris Murray (R).  Additionally, more than $63,000 was spent attacking Wagner by the Orange County Employees Association, the County’s largest labor union, and over $54,000 was spent attacking Murray by multimillionaire Howard F. Ahmanson and his Fieldstead & Company.

Deborah Pauly (R) spent just over $10,000, and the other three candidates (Republicans Larry Bales, Kim-Thy “Katie” Bayliss, and Katherine Daigle) spent nothing.  There were no independent expenditures for or against Pauly, Bales, Bayliss, or Daigle.  Bayliss and Daigle’s campaigns seem to only exist on the ballot and in cyberspace, as neither candidate has spent any money, appeared at any candidate forums, or submitted a candidate statement for the sample ballot.

The campaign finance reports for the IEs are largely complete, but those for the candidates are only complete through February 23.  After February 23, the only information we have from the candidates are regarding contributions received totaling $1,000 or more.

Here’s the campaign finance chart for the candidate’s campaigns:

Candidate Contributions
Through 2/23
Loans Unpaid
Bills
Expenditures Cash on Hand
(COH)
COH
Minus
Unpaid Bills
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
and Loans
Through 2/23
$1,000+
Contributions
After 2/23
Don Wagner (R) $187,760 $100,000 $120,366 $232,279 $184,747 $64,381 ($35,619) $54,000
Loretta Sanchez (D) $193,846 $100,000 $0 $138,321 $256,652 $256,652 $156,652 $25,900
Kris Murray (R) $50,512 $52,000 $1,150 $97,797 $49,974 $48,824 ($3,176) $18,000
Deborah Pauly (R) $6,275 $10,500 $0 $10,269 $6,506 $6,506 ($3,994) $0
Katie Bayliss (R) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Katherine Daigle (R) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Larry Bales (R) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

Here’s the chart of the independent expenditures (excluding spending by the Democratic Party of Orange County and the Republican Party of Orange County):

Independent Expenditure Pro-Sanchez Pro-Wagner Anti-Wagner Pro-Murray Anti-Murray
Orange County Employees Association $243,770 $0 $63,418 $0 $0
Orange County Attorneys Association $99,605 $0 $0 $0 $0
Engage OC $0 $55,300 $0 $0 $0
Howard F. Ahmanson / Fieldstead & Company $0 $0 $0 $0 $54,497
California Women’s Leadership Association $0 $0 $0 $31,037 $0

My father received an IE mailer from the Orange County Professional Firefighters Association, but I have been unable to find an IE report from the firefighters union on either the County Registrar of Voters’s web site or the Secretary of State’s web site.

Here are the member communications from the respective political parties:

  • Republican Party of Orange County: $133,317 (supporting Wagner and opposing Sanchez)
  • Democratic Party of Orange County: $45,122 (supporting Sanchez and opposing Wagner)

What That Spending Looked Like to Voters

Here’s a glimpse of what all that campaign activity looked like to two different houses in the Third District: my parents’ house and my house.

Phones

My parents received 6 phone calls from either Don Wagner’s campaign or the Republican Party of Orange County in support of Wagner.  My NPP father also received a robocall from Deborah Pauly that emphasized her support of Donald Trump.

Mail

My parents were kind enough to let me have all their mail from the special election, so the first picture is what it looked like when I spread all of their special election mail on my living room floor, and the second picture is all of my special election mail spread out on the same portion of my living room floor:

My Republican mother and NPP father received 32 pieces of mail for this special election from candidates and independent expenditures

I received 14 pieces of mail for this special election from candidates and independent expenditures

Comparing my mail as a Republican voter with the mail sent to my Republican mother (or to both my parents) finds fairly similar compositions.  The radical difference is the mail sent to my NPP father.  He received more pro-Sanchez mail than my mother or I received from all sides in this election.  While all pro-Sanchez forces pushed hard for my father’s vote, OCEA pushed the hardest, producing the majority of all the pro-Sanchez mail my father received.

None of the candidates’ campaigns directly attacked their opponents in the mail, with all the attacks either coordinated through the political parties or done separately by independent expenditures.

As an NPP voter, my father was rather annoyed at how the majority of the pieces addressed to him were overtly partisan.  Of the 28 pieces of mail addressed to either my father alone or to my father with my mother, a full 16 pieces praised the political party endorsements of the candidates: 9 pieces touting Sanchez’s Democratic Party endorsement and 7 pieces touting Wagner’s Republican Party endorsement.

For those of you who care about the details, here’s the breakdown of the mail in two Nguyen households…

The 14 pieces of mail I received at my home consisted of 5 pro-Wagner pieces, 2 more pieces supporting Wagner and opposing Sanchez, 1 pro-Sanchez piece, 3 pro-Murray pieces, and 3 anti-Murray pieces.  They were:

  • 3 pieces from Wagner’s campaign
  • 3 pieces from Murray’s campaign
  • 3 anti-Murray IEs from Howard F. Ahmanson/Fieldstead & Company
  • 4 member communications from the Republican Party of Orange County
    • 2 pro-Wagner
    • 2 pro-Wagner/anti-Sanchez
  • 1 pro-Sanchez IE from the Orange County Attorneys Association

Of the 32 pieces of mail my parents received at their house, 19 were addressed to my NPP father, 4 to my Republican mother, and 9 to both of them.

The 19 pieces of mail addressed solely to my NPP father consisted of 13 pro-Sanchez pieces, 2 pieces supporting Sanchez and attacking Wagner, 3 anti-Wagner pieces, and 1 anti-Murray piece.  They were:

  • 3 pieces from Sanchez’s campaign (2 in English, 1 in Vietnamese)
  • 11 IEs from the Orange County Employees Association
    • 6 pro-Sanchez
    • 3 anti-Wagner
    • 2 pro-Sanchez/anti-Wagner
  • 3 pro-Sanchez IEs from the Orange County Attorneys Association
  • 1 pro-Sanchez IE from the Orange County Professional Firefighters Association
  • 1 anti-Murray IE from Howard F. Ahmanson/Fieldstead & Company

The 9 pieces addressed to both my parents consisted of 5 pro-Wagner pieces, 2 pieces supporting Wagner and attacking Sanchez, and 2 pro-Sanchez pieces.  They were:

  • 3 pieces from Wagner’s campaign
  • 4 member communications from the Republican Party of Orange County
    • 2 pro-Wagner
    • 2 pro-Wagner/anti-Sanchez
  • 1 piece from Sanchez’s campaign
  • 1 pro-Sanchez IE from the Orange County Attorneys Association

The 4 pieces addressed to my Republican mother consisted of 3 pro-Murray pieces and 1 anti-Murray piece.  They were:

  • 1 piece from Murray’s campaign
  • 2 pro-Murray IEs from the California Women’s Leadership Association
  • 1 anti-Murray IE from Howard F. Ahmanson/Fieldstead & Company

Results

The polls close at 8:00 PM, and the first results will be released online at 8:05 PM by the Registrar of Voters.  Those 8:05 PM results will consist of the vote-by-mail ballots already received by the Registrar.

When the count is completed (which will likely be next week) and certified, whoever gets the plurality of the votes will be sworn in as Supervisor two weeks from today, on Tuesday, March 26.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Really? Attacking a Candidate for the Passage of Things He Fought Against?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 1, 2019

As longtime readers know, as the publisher, I generally don’t write posts rebutting what other bloggers on OC Political write (and there’s no pre-approval process for our writers), as each writer’s opinion is their own, but last night’s blog post accusing Supervisorial Candidate Don Wagner of not being pro-life based on his record in the State Assembly is beyond the pale.

During his Assembly tenure, Wagner had a 100% on the legislative scorecards of both the California Pro-Life Council and the Life Priority Network, scoring identically to then-Assemblywoman/now-Senate Republican Leader Shannon Grove (R-Bakersfield) and to the right of even then-Assemblyman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach), for example.

I’m going to quote last night’s blog post and then note the reality below it.

“AB777 [Actually, this was AB775] – Required Pro Life medical clinics and Pregnancy Resource centers to promote and provide referrals to Abortion providers.  (This legislation was so reprehensible that the Supreme Court struck it down last year, Nifla V. Becerra)”

Wagner so vigorously fought AB 775 (Chiu and Burke, 2015) that the National Abortion Rights Action League (NARAL) of California took a clip of Wagner in committee and put it on YouTube under the title “Autumn Burke responds to anti-choice legislator at AB 775 hearing” and there was an article in the national liberal web site Jezebel that referred to him as “anti-abortion California Assembly member Donald P. Wagner” and quotes the video.

“AB154 – Nurse Practitioners, Midwives and Physicians Assistants can perform abortions. The purpose of this is obvious, to employ more professional who will perform abortions because less doctors are willing to participate in the procedure which make it difficult for the abortion cartel to expand their business.”

Wagner fought vigorously against AB 154 (Atkins, 2013) as well, such that NARAL California again took a clip of Wagner in committee and put it on YouTube, this time under the title “California Legislator Wants to Know Where the Underserved Women Are” and there was an article in MSNBC that attacked Wagner for his fight against this bill.

“AB980 – Cloaked as a building codes revision, this law makes it easier for buildings to be converted into surgical abortion facilities by reducing the standards for plumbing and patient treatment rooms.  Because abortion is a surgical procedure that produces medical waste (i.e. dead babies) and because it potentially involves a life threatening complications, there should be safety, health considerations and ability to transport a patient or for emergency personnel to obtain access to a patient.  These parameters however, can become expensive for a clinic to bring a facility up to those standards.  The way the California legislature responded the the Planned Parenthood sponsored bill, was the lower, rather than raise, those standards for abortion clinics.”

Wagner voted against AB 980 (Pan, 2013) FOUR times in the Assembly.

“SB128 [SB128 failed but was reintroduced as ABx2-15] Assisted Suicide – this appears to have survived it’s court battle.  It was passed in a “special session” in 2015 that was supposed to be dealing with budgetary issues only, this euthanasia law was pushed forward anyways. It passed, was signed by the governor, and faced legal challenges shortly after.  The law seems to have survived the court process, as of 2018.”

Wagner was the only opponent of ABx2-15 (Eggman, 2015) who was quoted by the article on the bill in the San Francisco Chronicle that was headlined “Assembly passes assisted-dying bill after emotional debate

On another note, last night’s blog post stated, “No one seems concerned or bothered by the fact that he vacates the seat he just ran for and will leave his city in a special election lurch, but yay for fiscal responsibility.”  Well, that’s not the case: Irvine City ordinances specifically say that the Mayor Pro Tem becomes Mayor if the latter seat is vacated (and then the City Council appoints a person to fill the subsequent vacancy on the Council).

Finally, the premise of last night’s blog post was that the writer received “a forwarded email yesterday from someone who called herself, Dr. Something-or-other, Ph.D.” who provided a “representation that [Wagner] is the only ‘Pro Life’ Third District candidate is not only untrue, because there are two other ‘Pro Life’ Republicans in the race…”  It is rather unseemly to launch an attack on a candidate based on receiving a forwarded email originally penned by some random emailer.  I’m a resident of the Third District, and I’ve not seen a single mailer, social media posting, article, or press release from Wagner (nor from any independent expenditure) claiming that Wagner is the only pro-life candidate.  Indeed, until last night’s blog post, I had not seen a single mention of abortion from any candidate literature or independent expenditure, nor was there any mention of abortion at the Third District candidate forum.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , | 3 Comments »

Is Don Wagner the “Pro Life” candidate?

Posted by Brenda Higgins on February 28, 2019

I received a forwarded email yesterday from someone who called herself, Dr. Something-or-other, Ph.D.  I have known some people with Ph.D.’s and rarely do the credible ones have to mention it twice in their name, but I digress.  I don’t know the person who allegedly originated the email, but it urged a vote for Don Wagner for the vacant Third District Supervisorial seat in the upcoming special election.  It alleged that the reason for voting for Don Wagner, was because he is “Pro Life”.

Here is what the email doesn’t mention.

The entire Republican platform says that it is “Pro Life”.  In spite of this, the OCGOP endorsed THREE candidates for local office last election that were adamantly Pro Choice, NOT in any way Pro-Life.  I wrote about that here, and I spoke to two of the candidates.  Both of them nice women, who won those local elections, but decidedly contrary to anything the Republican party purports to stand for.  If this is your issue, at a minimum, the time has come to do a gut check level evaluation of what that really means, to you, to your party and to the candidates that we all vote in lock step with, because the party “endorsed” them, or because some Dr.-Ph.D. told us to.

And, while, we continue to stew in our outrage about the fact that 44 Democrats voted AGAINST Senator Ben Sase’s Bill to require medical aid be given to infants born alive after a botched abortion…..why don’t we ask our selves WHY it took until 2019, for such a bill to actually make it to the Senate floor.  Many botched abortions have occurred in the past 46 years, NOW we realize that?  Have we just learned this, or have the Republicans been asleep at the switch?  While Obama was president, several times the Republican controlled congress managed to get a bill to Defund Planned Parenthood to the President’s desk, only to have it vetoed.  The outrage was measured and predictable.  Doesn’t anyone find it odd that no such bill was forwarded to the desk of President Trump, who promised to sign it?

Don Wagner, is the GOP endorsed candidate for the Supervisorial seat vacated by Todd Spitzer.  Incumbent Irvine mayor, Don Wagner was just re-elected to that position on November 6, 2018.  He was easily endorsed by the OCGOP, at the February meeting of the GOP, even before he was qualified as a candidate for the Third District Supervisor seat.  No one seems concerned or bothered by the fact that he vacates the seat he just ran for, and will leave his city in a special election lurch,  a process that can cost a city hundreds of thousands of dollars, but yay for fiscal responsibility.

Prior to being elected Mayor, Don Wagner was in the State Assembly from 2010 to 2016.  While every Republican in Sacramento portends to be “Pro Life”, they have managed to return to their districts every year and with the same shrug of the shoulders, declare that it is really tough in Sacramento and they just can’t get anything done.  What we must ask ourselves then, is what good are they, and why do we even need them.  Taking up space and collecting salaries and benefits while they lament about their own ineffectiveness.

The actual votes of the Assemblymember, are irrelevant. Just as legislators do in Washington D.C., they can feign outrage and do nothing, as long as they are in the minority.   They pick their issues, and negotiate on them. They can choose which “hill they will die on”, so to speak.  The bottom line in Sacramento, is that all of the Republicans, (save one lone woman from middle of the state) are utterly unwilling to put their limited bargaining power on the line for the unborn.  If the unborn were constituents that Don Wagner and his colleagues had to face, it is easy to imagine they would make the curtailing of abortion in California a higher priority.  As it stands, it is a free for all for the abortion cartel in Sacramento, because there is no incentive for anyone to make a real stand for Life.

Here are some of the victories for the abortion cartel that occurred on Don Wagner’s watch while he was in Sacramento (2010 – 2016):

  • AB777 – Required Pro Life medical clinics and Pregnancy Resource centers to promote and provide referrals to Abortion providers.  (This legislation was so reprehensible that the Supreme Court struck it down last year, see the analysis of Nifla V. Becerra at Political Vanguard)
  • AB154 – Nurse Practitioners, Midwives and Physicians Assistants can perform abortions. The purpose of this is obvious, to employ more professionals who will perform abortions because, more and more doctors are unwilling to participate in the procedure.  This decline in the number of abortionists is making it difficult for the abortion cartel to expand their business, so they expand it in the way they always have, by endangering women and offering sub-par care.
  • AB980 – Cloaked as a building codes revision, this law makes it easier for buildings to be converted into surgical abortion facilities by reducing the standards for plumbing and patient treatment rooms.  Because abortion is a surgical procedure that produces medical waste (i.e. dead babies) and because it potentially involves a life threatening complications, there should be safety, health considerations and ability to transport a patient or for emergency personnel to obtain access to a patient.  These parameters however, can become expensive for a clinic to bring a facility up to those standards.  The way the California legislature responded the the Planned Parenthood sponsored bill, was the lower, rather than raise, those standards for abortion clinics.  Plumbing.  This bill was promoted and sponsored by Planned Parenthood as a plumbing standards legislation.  Ask yourself why they are concerned about plumbing.
  • SB128 Assisted Suicide – this appears to have survived it’s court battle.  It was passed in a “special session” in 2015 that was supposed to be dealing with budgetary issues only, this euthanasia law was pushed forward anyways. The stories that have come out about this, place the responsibility for pushing this at this inappropriate time,  upon Governor Brown.  It passed, was signed by the governor, and faced legal challenges shortly after.  The law designed to shorten the life of people with diagnosed illnesses, seems to have survived the court process, as of 2018.  Euthanasia.  California is working to become a leader in killing.

For Don Wagner or any Republican legislator to call themselves “Pro Life” while they served in a State Assembly that fast tracked abortion and other anti-Life legislation in California, is disingenuous at best.  The representation that he is the only “Pro Life” Third District candidate is not only untrue, because there are two other “Pro Life” Republicans in the race, but it is an unfair representation of his do nothing approach to life and abortion issues while he was in Sacramento.  Having had an opportunity to stand for Life, Don Wagner chose to have a seat and not make any difference at all.

Here is a list of Assemblyman Wagner’s accomplishments. The question that should be asked, is, what really, is the difference between Wagner and Loretta Sanchez?

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, Anaheim, Irvine, Villa Park | Tagged: | 7 Comments »

Live from the 3rd Supervisorial District Candidate Forum

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 15, 2019

Foothill Communities Association and League of Women Voters

We are live from Third Supervisorial District Special Election candidate forum, sponsored by the Foothill Communities Association, moderated by the League of Women Voters. Five of the seven candidates are present at this forum. (This is the second forum for front-runners Don Wagner, Loretta Sanchez, and Kris Murray who appeared at a January 31 forum sponsored by the Orange County Public Affairs Association.)

The candidates (and their ballot designations) present are:

Absent are:

Coincidentally, neither Daigle nor Bayliss submitted a candidate’s statement for the sample ballot mailed to all voters, though Bayliss did submit a candidate’s statement for the online sample ballot.

Although their partisan affiliations are not listed on the March 12 ballot since County Supervisor is a nonpartisan office, Sanchez is a Democrat and the other six candidates are all Republicans. Sanchez is endorsed by the Democratic Party of Orange County while Wagner is endorsed by the Republican Party of Orange County.

The candidates are seated in the following randomly selected order: Pauly, Sanchez, Wagner, Murray, and Bales.

After welcomes and introductions by the FCA and LWV, opening statements begin at 7:15 PM.

Deborah Pauly thanks attendees and organizers. She has been active in the community since moving to OC in July 1999. She served in the Air Force in public affairs. She has lived all over the US and around the world due to her service, which made her value the US more. She notes each part of the district has different needs. She says she is available, responsive, and action oriented. She served two terms on the City Council.

Loretta Sanchez thanks the organizers, attendees, and opponents. She attended public school and then Chapman University, received various scholarships, and joked that she is a public-private partnership. She served in Congress representing OC for 20 years. She notes her effectiveness in bringing transportation funding, water funding, and education funding back to OC. She notes she is the only one on stage who voted for the Affordable Care Act. She has raised funds for local nonprofits.

Don Wagner thanks the attendees and organizers. He notes he is the only one of the seven candidates who has represented the unincorporated North Tustin area (the area represented by the forum organizers). He notes that he carried legislation drawn from the district. He was the Republican who passed the most bills of any Republican in the Democrat-controlled Legislature.

Kris Murray speaks of being a mother. She was on the City Council and Mayor Pro Tem. She points to various accomplishments, including on homelessness, Taxpayer Protection Act, and stopping mobile needle exchange. She is supported by two of the oldest neighborhood associations. because of her accessibility.

Larry Bales is the descendant of military veterans back to the Revolutionary War. He worked in the County. He claims credit for getting 45 political corruption convictions, including that of Congressman Andrew J. Hinshaw. He claims credit for empowering Howard Jarvis to pass Proposition 13. He claims credit for turning in Assessor Webster Guilliry for election crimes.

Moderator asks what are the most important issues in OC?

Sanchez speaks of fire suppression and helping evacuate her mother. She is endorsed by the fire union. She says mental health is another major issue. She points out that mental health emergencies are clogging emergency rooms for everyone else.

Wagner points to homelessness. He says many solutions are required, not one-size-fits-all. He says his city has reduced the homeless population, pointing to the point-in-time homeless count. He begins to address public safety but runs out of time.

Murray points to open space expressing opposition to development of unincorporated areas. She improved police response times in Anaheim and would like to do the same for County Sheriff’s Deputies and the Fire Authority. She points to her boots on the ground record reducing homelessness on the riverbed.

Bales wants to protect property values. He opposes special interests and dark money. He has few specifics and ends early.

Pauly cites undeveloped County-owned land. She suggests voters examine campaign finance reports. She says only she stands for the people first. Pauly opposes “the invasion of illegal immigrants.” She points to eradicated diseases coming back, due to illegal immigration.

Moderator asks about ensuring neighborhood preservation.

Wagner says as Mayor that he will seek community input to preserve community character. He points to his blocking a developer’s project in Irvine to preserve the specific plan. He notes homeowners should get what they bought in community character.

Murray says she will adhere and enforce specific plans. She points to successfully fighting slumlords in Anaheim. She notes the importance of property values and community safety.

Bales says avoid special interest money. He then speaks about the veterans cemetery.

Pauly blasts developers for “not having skin in the game.” She says they care only about making money. She will fight against high density and low-income housing.

Sanchez notes she grew up in OC and loves its nature. She says developer money is flowing to the two candidates to the right of her (Wagner and Murray).

Moderator asks about the California Disclose Act.

Murray says she led efforts for transparency in Anaheim, including lobbyist registration. She wants to help bring greater transparency to the County. She has hundreds of donations from individual people. She says she offers her cell phone number to be accessible.

Bales blasts Disney’s spending in Anaheim elections and the Disneyland parking structure. He blasts Irvine developer spending.

Pauly says she has a record of fighting for transparency. She would prefer to receive small donations, rather than large donations. She got Council meetings online when she was on the Council.

Sanchez tried to pass the federal version of the Disclose Act. She points to the example of the information box on credit card bills that she says is nicknamed the Sanchez Box. She says credit card companies spent $3 million against her.

Wagner noted Irvine just increased its Sunshine Ordinance. He notes Democrats in Sacramento have failed to pass the Disclose Act, so Sanchez should explain why they haven’t done so. He points to development projects he opposed, including those from Five Points and Irvine Company. He says he has approved no apartments, blasting an accusation that he approved 10,000 apartments.

Moderator asks about keeping the County budget balanced.

Bales speaks of pespecial interest spending in Washington.

Pauly wants to reduce spending and oppose special interest spending. She says she will rely on subject matter experts from outside government. She wants to reduce fees, fines, and licenses, but she does support cost-recovery. She will not spend more than the County takes in and says there is plenty of money in the County budget.

Sanchez says property money goes up to Sacramento and most counties get 17 percent back while Orange County gets 5 percent back. She says she will go to both Sacramento and Washington to get more money.

Wagner says it is ludicrous that changing the partisan composition of the Board will suddenly result in more money for Orange County. He note his fiscal management record at both South Orange County Community College District and Irvine. He supports Prop 13.

Murray wants zero-based budgeting. She wants to attract more employers to grow the economic pie. She notes Anaheim has 50% of its revenue from private investment. She says the Anaheim Ducks are now taking over ARTIC expenses in a deal she helped strike near the end of her Council term.

Moderator asks if the candidates represent the changing demographics of the district.

Pauly says she looks like the room. She says high taxes and fees are driving young people out due to the cost of living. She says seniors face the same challenges.

Sanchez has lived in OC for 55 years. She played in orange groves. She says the County is much more urban and diverse now. She says she knew what OC was and what it now is. She wants to be a bridge to new residents who have new needs on healthcare and education.

Wagner says OC is changing. He embraces it and notes Irvine is extraordinarily diverse. He says his City can boast of its safety and fiscal responsibility. 75+ languages are spoken in Irvine schools. Safe schools, safe neighborhoods, and good jobs are all things people seek, and there is strength in diversity.

Murray says OC is changing. She says diversity is a great strength. She loves OC’s history. She has no sidewalks and streetlights in her neighborhood and wants to protect communities and keep them intact. She speaks of Anaheim’s history as OC’s oldest city.

Bales has lived in OC for 40 years and hates the traffic. He wants to curtail new construction. He blasts the gas tax.

Moderator asks about each person’s biggest policy mistake.

Sanchez says, “Wow” and pauses for a time. Eventually she cites getting funding for high speed rail, which she notes didn’t get done.

Wagner says it’s a tough question but he regrets supporting people who weren’t up to policy challenges. He says some people have disappointed him either in their votes or their personal scandals.

Murray says she trusted staff too much and should have pushed back more when she started on the Council. She says she will stand up for residents for public safety, on the economy, and on homelessness. She regrets contracting out park maintenance, though she has since fixed that.

Bales talks about tech companies being special interests in Washington. (There is snickering in the audience as it repeatedly becomes clear that Bales doesn’t understand most of the questions.)

Pauly cites Murray and says Pauly should have trusted her gut and common sense against City staff. Pauly says Sanchez’s vote on ACA and Wagner’s votes on cemeteries are their failures. The moderator cuts Pauly off.

Moderator asks about the new joint powers authority (JPA) on homelessness.

Wagner warns of JPAs being subject to state pressure, pointing to Sanchez’s union allies. He speaks of various homeless solutions, including shelter beds and mental health programs.

Murray says the JPA was set up by cities to ensure there is funding for local communities for homelessness. She says this will come from local communities up to the JPA, not top down from the State or the JPA.

Bales says homeless shelters should be selectively placed. He wants basketball court-style sheltering.

Pauly opposed the JPA as expanding government. She says homelessness has been hardened. She blamed electeds officials for not taking care of homelessness sooner and now permanent homeless shelters are being imposed on communities. She calls for temporary shelters, like “tent cities.”

Sanchez says it is sad that a federal judge had to intervene. She blasts Anaheim for letting homelessness grow for 2 years. She blasts the proposal to place a homeless shelter at a school in the canyons. she speaks of the need for mental health programs and wraparound services.

Moderator asks about rising hate crimes.

Murray calls hate crimes a tragedy, pointing to faith, lifestyle, and culture. she says she is being attacked by Howard Ahmanson who she says funds hate groups. She says she stands with all diverse communities.

Bales speaks of opposing prejudice and being friends with people of all races.

Pauly speaks of the First Amendment, protecting free speech and freedom of religion. She says the Human Relations Commission is keeping itself busy. She says there are professional victims. She says certain groups are a threat, but scream hate to defend themselves.

Sanchez has been attacked for being a woman, poor, Latina, Christian, and even a Democrat. She says it is important to stand for all people. She calls for increased funding for the Human Relations Commission.

Wagner says the Human Relations Commission fights “yahoos” in the community. He speaks of helping to defend a vandalized synagogue by offering a reward for the “yahoo” who attacked it, and he worked with Christian and Muslim leaders on this.

Moderator asks about making toll roads more profitable.

Bales says developers want toll roads to access their land.

Pauly says transportation, and particularly roads, are a basic function of government. She says the toll roads are empty while freeways are jam packed. She says the toll roads are not profitable and should be free.

Sanchez notes the 73 is not profitable and the 241 barely breaks even. She points to the toll roads pouring on to high-traffic roads. She says there needs to be bigger picture planning.

Wagner cites Sanchez’s arguments and calls for comprehensive solutions for getting people across the county in both emergency and day-to-day situations.

Murray says the toll roads are critical redundancy and will be free once the bonds are paid off. She supports the 91/241 toll road connector which will help organically reduce traffic. She says that the 5 and 57 cannot be further widened.

Moderator asks for residency.

Pauly: Orange

Sanchez: Orange

Wagner: North Irvine

Murray: Anaheim Hills

Bales: Tustin

Moderator asks what drives choices of support, proposals, and votes.

Pauly says there are problems we may not anticipate. She reads all material. She asks staff questions. She does further research. She goes to her outside experts. She emails constituents.

Sanchez seeks out experts. She notes her endorsement by Jim Doti because she always sought Chapman’s expertise. She trusts her gut.

Wagner says it is important to do homework and seek expertise but then run it through principles. He founded the OC chapter of the Federalist Society. He always seeks to increase liberty.

Murray says she is not a politician, but a public servant. She hosted town halls as a Councilwoman to get community input. She works hard and rolls up her sleeves. She seeks long term benefit for the people she serves.

Bales says honesty is his top priority and seeks to make the best decision possible. He wants to represent people not special interests. He says Prop 13 emerged from his work.

Closing statements begin.

Bales says he will represent the people. He believes in honesty and integrity. He has been retaliated against as a whistleblower.

Murray thanks the organizers and attendees. She wants to serve the people, work hard, and be accessible. Her cell phone is on her campaign web site. She cares about results, not rhetoric. She has not attacked any other candidate.

Wagner thanks the organizers and attendees. He came to OC in 1991 and loves this community. The people, not the government, built the community. He will help preserve it. He has the experience to serve this community.

Sanchez will protect the Third District. She will protect public safety and the homeless, both mentally I’ll and opioid-addicted. She notes she brought money back to OC as a Democrat in a Republican controlled Congress. She loves OC as her home and her family’s home.

Pauly speaks of people informing her. She says she is a fighter and scrapper. She says she will be the first line of defense for the people. She says she is the only candidate who put her cell phone and email address in the sample ballot.

The forum concludes at 8:35 PM.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

3rd District Supervisor Candidate Forum on Friday with All 7 Candidates

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on February 13, 2019

The Foothill Communities Association has organized a candidate forum for the Third District Supervisor Special Election, with moderators from the League of Women Voters.  The forum is scheduled for Friday evening and is the first (and probably only) time all seven candidates will be at the same forum.  It will be the second forum for front-runners Don Wagner, Loretta Sanchez, and Kris Murray who appeared at a January 31 forum sponsored by the Orange County Public Affairs Association.

Here is the release from FCA and LWV:

Foothill Communities Association and League of Women Voters

Candidates Forum for Third District Supervisor

The seven candidates running to be the next Third District Supervisor in Orange County will participate in a forum to discuss their qualifications and policies. The candidates will also take questions from the audience. This is likely the only opportunity that Third District residents will have to compare all the candidates and have them address their individual specific concerns.

Date and time: Friday, February 15, 2019 at 7pm

Location: Trinity Presbyterian Church (Fellowship Hall)
13922 Prospect Ave, Santa Ana, CA 92705
(corner of Prospect Ave. and 17th St.)

The special election will be on March 12, 2019.

The Third District includes all or parts of Anaheim, Irvine, Orange, Yorba Linda, El Modena, North Tustin, Orange Park Acres, and the Canyon Communities.

The event is organized by the Foothill Communities Association and will be moderated by The League of Women Voters. Both organizations are nonprofit entities and are politically impartial. Neither will endorse candidates.

Check www.FCAhome.org for more details.

Note: the last day to register to vote for this election is February 25, 2019.

For further information contact Richard Nelson
(714) 730-7810 rnelson@FCAhome.org

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

BOS-3: Seven Candidates Qualify for Special Election Ballot

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 29, 2019

The field is set, with seven candidates officially qualified for the ballot for the March 12 special election to fill the Third Supervisorial District seat, left vacant when Supervisor Todd Spitzer (R-Orange) was elected District Attorney of Orange County.

Special Election Candidates for the Third Supervisorial District (l-r): Don Wagner, Loretta Sanchez, Kris Murray, Deborah Pauly, Katherine Daigle, Larry Bales, Katie Bayliss

There are 5 women and 2 men: Wagner and Bales.  There are 6 Republicans and 1 Democrat: Sanchez. (It should be noted that Supervisor is a nonpartisan race, so party affiliation does not appear on the ballot, and it’s up to the candidates, political parties, and independent expenditures to inform – or misinform – the voters about the party affiliations.)  Their names are listed below as they will appear on the ballot along their ballot designations, followed by the narrative of their electoral history and representation of portions of the Third District:

  • Donald P. Wagner (R-Irvine)
    Mayor of Irvine

    Elected Mayor in 2016 and re-elected in 2018, he is the only current elected official running for Supervisor.  He presumably has the highest name ID, having represented nearly the entire district in the State Assembly (2010-2016) and the southern half of the district on the South Orange County Community College District Board.  He was the Assemblyman, the Mayor, or both for 85% of the Third Supervisorial District.
  • Loretta Sanchez (D-Orange)
    Educator/Small Businesswoman
    The 20-year Congresswoman (1997-2017) made an ill-fated bid for the United States Senate in 2016, when she was defeated by Kamala Harris in the general election.  She was the Congresswoman for 12% of the Third Supervisorial District.  That 12% overlapped Wagner’s Assembly District.
  • Kristine “Kris” Murray (R-Anaheim)
    Orange County Business Owner
    The former Anaheim Councilwoman (2010-2018) termed out of office two months ago.  She was a Councilwoman for 12% of the Third Supervisorial District.  That 12% overlapped Wagner’s Assembly District.
  • Deborah Pauly (R-Orange)
    Businesswoman
    Seeking higher office for the third time, the former two-term Villa Park Councilwoman (2006-2014) was defeated for Assembly in 2016 and Supervisor in 2012.   She was a Councilwoman for 1% of the Third Supervisorial District.  Her city of Villa Park was entirely in Wagner’s Assembly District, though she now resides in Orange, which is also in Wagner’s Assembly District.
  • Katherine Daigle (R-Irvine)
    Small Business Owner
    A perennial candidate, she made 6 failed bids for elected office: twice for State Assembly (2016 and 2018) and four times for Mayor of Irvine (2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018).  She is also the only candidate in the entire field dumb enough to not get a ballot statement.
  • Larry Bales (R-Tustin)
    Retired
    Seeking County office for the seventh time (or eighth time, depending on how you count it), he is another perennial candidate, with 6 unsuccessful candidacies for County office and 1 failed attempt at an appointment to County office.  He ran for Orange County Recorder in 1986 (before the office was merged with the County Clerk).  He ran for Orange County Assessor in 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002, and 2006.  He sought the appointment to fill the vacancy for Orange County Clerk-Recorder in 2013.
  • Kim-Thy “Katie” Hoang Bayliss (R-Tustin)
    Attorney/Businessowner/Mother
    She is the only candidate in the entire field who has never run for office before.  Awkwardly, she had formerly interned for one of her opponents in this race: Loretta Sanchez.  Bayliss has been registered to vote in Tustin (in the Third District) since December 2018 after having previously been registered to vote in Ladera Ranch (in the Fifth District).  Her husband was still registered to vote in Ladera Ranch as of January 7.

This group of candidates has lost 18 elections combined: 12 of those losses belong to Daigle and Bales.

While Bales is 76 and Bayliss turns 39 just two days before the election, the rest of the candidates are remarkably close in age, as Sanchez, Pauly, and Daigle are all 59, Wagner is 58, and Murray is 51.

Yorba Linda is the unknown neutral zone in the Third Supervisorial District, as none of the seven candidates have ever been elected to anything representing Yorba Linda nor do any of the seven live there.

Below are the ballot statements of each candidate.  I would not be surprised if some of these change, as there are certainly portions that could be challenged in court in some of these ballot statements.

Wagner:

Mayor Don Wagner has a history of getting the job done while being a good steward of taxpayer dollars. He understands how hard we work for every dollar, and he is committed to delivering the best county services at the lowest price.

Don is tough on crime. In the legislature he opposed reducing penalties for sex offenders who prey on children. As Supervisor, he’ll increase funding for law enforcement to help people in high crime areas take back their communities.

Don has a plan to solve the homeless crisis. He’ll make sure our veterans, women, and children never spend a night outside. His plan also provides compassionate treatment options for addicts and the mentally ill.

Don is fiscally responsible. During six years as President of the South Orange County Community College District he balanced every budget and paid off all debt, without raising taxes.

Don is committed to increasing our quality of life. As Irvine Mayor, he enacted a traffic plan to reduce gridlock, improved our park system, and accelerated build out of the Orange County Great Park.

Don’s reasoned, collaborative approach to problem solving is why every mayor in the district supports him. Your vote helps Don Wagner continue working for us.

Don Wagner

www.ElectDonWagner.com

Sanchez:

With over 30 years of government service, infrastructure development, and business expertise, I am highly experienced as a qualified candidate for the Orange County Board of Supervisors, District 3.

I have made Orange County my home for over 55 years and represented us in Congress for 20 years. I graduated from Katella High School, Chapman University (BA, Economics), and American University (MBA).

Named one of the “25 Most Influential Women of Congress” in 2015, I secured billions of federal dollars to widen our freeways, develop our world-class water recycling system, protect our environment, improve healthcare services, and fund research at UCI, Chapman, and Cal State Fullerton. I know how to get more of our tax dollars back to Orange County. As Supervisor, I will continue to work with local, state, and federal officials to make our schools stronger, our streets safer, and housing more affordable.

Since retiring from Congress in 2017, I have been working on solutions to homelessness, raising private funds for a homeless women’s shelter, mentoring candidates for public office, and consulting on business development issues.

I’m running for Supervisor because I have dedicated my life to making Orange County a wonderful place to live and work. Working together, we can achieve our priorities and move Orange County forward.

Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez (retired)

www.sanchezforocsupervisor.com

Murray (the only candidate to list her age in her ballot statement):

AGE: 51

I am running for Orange County Supervisor, with more than two decades of public service to Orange County, where the needs of residents, local businesses and taxpayers always come first.

As Mayor Pro Tem and City Councilwoman: I decreased 911 response times by increasing sworn personnel, neighborhood patrols and firefighting resources, reduced traffic by improving infrastructure, and opened Orange County’s first full-service homeless shelter away from schools and homes while eliminating homeless tent cities/encampments.

As a champion of fiscal responsibility: I balanced city budgets, lowered taxes, doubled cash reserves, authored the Taxpayer Protection Act, defended homeowners’ Prop. 13 protections and kept city and utility fees low, all while expanding transparency at City Hall.

On the economic front: I led efforts to grow thousands of local, high-paying jobs and keep world-champion Angels Baseball and Anaheim Ducks in Orange County.

As Orange County Supervisor, I will immediately get to work to reduce crime and improve wildfire protection, provide significant resources to address homelessness, support traffic-reducing measures and vigorously protect open space, trails and parks.

I’m the candidate endorsed by Orange County Business Council, California Women’s Leadership Association, our local Chamber of Commerce, as well as public safety and community leaders.

I humbly ask for your vote to serve you as Orange County Supervisor and to put our community first.

www.ElectKrisMurray.com

Pauly (the only candidate to purchase a 400-word ballot statement):

I’m running to give voters an independent option as their voice on the Board of Supervisors. Elected officials who are beholden to special interest groups, at either extreme of the political spectrum, do not make decisions furthering the greater good. I am obligated only to the citizens and US Constitution, which I vow to uphold.

I served active duty in the US Air Force in public affairs, where patriotism and civic duty merged into understanding how policy decisions today impact our communities tomorrow.

As a former city councilwoman, I’ve proven myself able and reliable. Local control and protecting the uniqueness in our District are paramount. Therefore, in the following, I support:

Anaheim – directing County traffic engineers to improve traffic flow and relieve bottlenecks. I will demand better fire coordination, improved resources and better planning so we don’t repeat the October 2017 Canyon 2 Fire.

Orange – recognizing the special communities that encompass this great city. From Old Town to Orange Park Acres and myriad barrios in between, diversity is a great part of Orange’s charm worth protecting.

North Tustin – respecting and defending the intent of the Foothill Trabuco Specific Plan, which is the foundation ensuring the special quality of life in our largest unincorporated area.

Irvine and Tustin – resisting future efforts to build overly dense housing on County-owned property. I will block placing homeless shelters near schools or parks.

Yorba Linda – ensuring this gracious city never relives anything like the 2008 Freeway Complex Fire. I will demand any future development on County-zoned property includes a net benefit to existing residents by providing traffic relief, additional fire infrastructure and fire breaks.

Villa Park and Yorba Linda – soliciting their input, as contract cities, prior to approving OC Sheriff’s contracts which heavily impact their budgets.

Irvine Lake – it is an outrage that this recreational jewel has been closed to the public due to infighting. I will bring the parties together to reopen this asset for the community’s enjoyment.

Finally, I support a Veterans’ Cemetery in our District.

Accessibility has always been a hallmark of my public service. I genuinely enjoy hearing from constituents, getting to know them and understanding what concerns them. I have lived in the 3rd District for two decades. The best ideas come from voters. Together, we can Make Orange County Great, Again!

I humbly ask for your vote. I consider it a sacred trust. DeborahPauly@gmail.com (714) 394-8400

Daigle:

(No ballot statement)

Bales:

I am a Viet Nam Veteran; my family has served in every United States conflict including the Revolutionary War of Independence.

While working for the County of Orange, I exposed political corruption and unfair treatment of taxpayers that eventually resulted in 45 indictments and 45 convictions of corrupted elected officials. Among them, a Congressman, the first one to be removed from Congress since the Civil War. My efforts, in stopping unfair and illegal property tax practices, directly contributed to the passage of Proposition 13. I support Prop 13.

I am against the “split roll” property tax being proposed. It will raise your taxes. Our commercial and industrial business community already suffers from unfair competition and are either moving out of state or going out of business. Lost jobs.

I continue to be concerned about our election process and in 2016 exposed and brought forward election fraud charges against your former Assessor Webster Guillory, resulting in 5 election felony charges.

I have not and will not accept Special Interest money or untraceable Dark Money from Special Interest.

Special Interest and Dark Money corrupts your representation to the point where, “We the people,” no longer exists.

I support legal immigration and election laws.

Bayliss:

Having someone who represents your values on the Board is critical. I know my decisions as Supervisor will impact real people of Orange County and I take this responsibility seriously.

I believe money belongs to the people who earn it. If you produce it, you should keep more of it. That’s why I oppose higher taxes. I know putting money back into the hands of people who buy goods and create jobs stimulates economic growth.

I believe in the free market where low prices are a result of fair and open competition. As an attorney and Supervisor, I will be open to receiving bids and reviewing them diligently to find the best prices and options.

I will get involved and not look at an issue from the outside. To better understand homelessness, I personally surveyed the homeless population to better assess their needs and gain an inside perspective on how funds should be allocated.

I believe in a fiscally responsible government. With my financial industry experience, I will work to keep the County debt down and ensure our budget is balanced.

I believe in protecting our children with communities of low crime, excellent schools, and clean parks.

Visit me at voteforkatiebayliss.com.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Live from OC GOP Central Committee

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 21, 2019

We are live from OC GOP Central Committee, where the agenda includes the election of officers for 2019-2020, speeches from candidates for California Republican Party Chairman, and the endorsement request submitted by Don Wagner for the special election for the Third District vacancy on the Orange County Board of Supervisors. It is standing room only in a rather large room.

The Central Committee voted to fill a pair of vacancies on the Central Committee with Hon. Alberta Christy (69th District, succeeding Hon. Brett Franklin) and Hon. Jim Cuneen (72nd District, succeeding Hon. Tyler Diep, who had to give up his directly-elected Central Committee seat, as the Republican nominee for the 72nd Assembly District has an ex officio Central Committee seat, and he cannot hold two Central Committee seats). They are sworn in, as are several new alternate members.

The roll is called, and the elected officials present are introduced.

OC GOP Chairman Fred Whitaker gives opening remarks reflecting upon the legacy of Martin Luther King, Jr.

Whitaker discusses the 2018 election, noting that more Republicans turned out to vote than Democrats did, in excess of registration margins. He notes polling indicates more Republicans voted for Democrats than vice-versa in 2018. He urges consolidating early behind candidates to deal with this, noting the Democrats have cleared the Third District Supervisor’s race for Loretta Sanchez and argues that the same should be done by Republicans for Don Wagner. He urges focusing on local issues, de-nationalizing the election, making sure OC volunteers focus on OC rather than calling into other states. He notes Democrats spent $60 million on OC Congressional races while Republicans spent $16 million. He notes $44 million was donated by OC Republicans and only $4 million came back to OC. He discusses how the Republican ballot harvesting pilot program was unsuccessful because Republicans simply do not hand over their ballots the way Democrats and No Party Preference voters do. He notes the Central Committee will vote on a political plan in closed session at the end of the meeting. He notes everyone on the Central Committee is a volunteer. He notes many people are here, yet only few signed up on the volunteer sheets at the entrance.

Central Committee Member Dean Grose calls on the entire Executive Committee to resign (despite the terms expiring today). He urges the elections be delayed to February and voted on one by one. (No one addresses Grose’s controversial past though most are aware.)

Whitaker notes elections for officers have been held every two years in January. He notes the terms expire today.

Former OC GOP Chairman Scott Baugh speaks about 27 Republican Governors, 64 legislative chambers, and other Republican successes. He notes the party controlling the White House typically loses seats in midterm elections, noting 39 Congressional seats lost is typical and that the GOP lost 40 in 2018. He also notes Democrats lost more state legislative seats in 2010 under President Barack Obama than Republicans did in 2018. He expresses concern about local Republicans voting for Democrats. He warns of the threat of Democrats gaining a second seat on the Board of Supervisors. He urges fighting back.

Baugh then makes a motion to nominate candidates for OC GOP Candidates for 2019-2020, seconded by Hon. John Moorlach and Hon. Gene Hernandez:

  • Hon. Fred Whitaker for Chairman
  • Hon. Peggy Huang for 1st Vice Chair
  • TJ Fuentes for 2nd Vice Chair
  • Erik Weigand for Treasurer
  • Steven Nguyen for Secretary
  • Hon. Laurie Davies for Assistant Treasurer
  • Tim Whitacre for Sergeant-at-Arms

Baron Night moves and Hon. Dean Grose seconds for remarks from each of the candidates.

Hon. Anthony Kuo moves and Hon. Brett Barbre seconds to table the motion. The tabling passes easily by voice vote.

The officer nominees are re-elected by voice vote.

Whitaker proposes Hon. Kermit Marsh to the appointed position of Parliamentarian, with at-large Executive Committee appointments going to Jon Fleischman, Mike McClellan, and Hon. Mike Munzing. The committee confirms the appointments by acclamation.

Hon. Mari Barke gives brief remarks on behalf of the California Policy Center.

Whitaker notes the presence of various candidates for Californa Republican Party (CRP) positions by name.

Whitaker then introduces the candidates for CRP Chair.

Steve Frank says he wants to revive the CRP. He says it is a great day in America with Trump as President and 660 days to get him re-elected. He notes 1.7 million Republicans have switched to Decline to State. He says the CRP has not spent a dime on voter registration. He says he does more radio shows in a week than entire CRP Board. He expresses outrage about legislative seats that did not have Republican candidates because of Prop 14. He accuses Travis Allen of supporting Prop 14 and accuses Jessica Patterson of getting 400 proxies to kill Frank’s symbolic resolution opposing Prop 14. He wants to use churches to harvest ballots. He blasts vote fraud. He says over a million people were fraudulently registered to vote in LA County. He says Democrats blocked the seating of a Republican Congressional candidate from North Carolina due to Republican ballot harvesting. He says Republicans should have sought the same with the seven California Democrats who won swing seats. He then gives out his phone number.

Whitaker notes that there is no endorsement vote tonight, but candidates for CRP Chair can go through the endorsement application process.

Jessica Patterson started volunteering for the Republican Party at a local headquarters in Hacienda Heights. She interned for Assemblyman Bob Pacheco and the CRP during the 2003 gubernatorial recall election. She notes most counties do not have County Executive Directors and infrastructure the way Orange County does. She notes her work with the CRP’s program for expanding County Executive Directors. She oversaw the Central Valley for CRP during the Schwarzenegger campaign. She is endorsed by 14 of 20 Republican Assemblymembers, 7 of 10 Republican State Senators, and 6 of 7 California Republican Members of Congress. She says she will not speak ill of other Republicans because she says the real enemies are the Democrats. She notes the endorsements of Darrell Issa, Ed Royce, Mimi Walters, Pat Bates, Ling Ling Chang, Phil Chen, and Don Barnes.

Hon. Travis Allen shouts into the crowd and receives supportive shouts in return. He blasts the Republican establishment for its failures of the past 20 years. He asks the crowd if they want to be light versions of Democrats, to which the crowd shouts against. He notes the conservative leadership that once ran California. He wants to grow the CRP with 100,000 small donors in addition to major donors and pay for voter registration. He wants grassroots street captains and precinct captains to lead Republican voter registration efforts on their streets and precincts. He notes those captains will also serve as a ballot harvesting army during the campaign. He calls Frank a great conservative but questions his plan to create internal committees. He calls Patterson a great Republican and blasts her being paid by Charles Munger and Kevin McCarthy and that she ran the ineffective Trailblazers program. He says she ran proxy drills to control the results of CRP convention votes. He wants to end proxy voting at CRP conventions. Allen has 13 County Party Chairs endorsing him and numerous delegates. He notes he has 500,000 Facebook followers, more than any Californa Republican. He speaks of bringing donors and grassroots together.

Baron Night asks Patterson for specific plans, arguing she is much vaguer than Frank and Allen.

Patterson wants to work on messaging and wants to empower the grassroots. She says she has the support of the donor community who will help fund these activities.

John W. Briscoe asks about whether Patterson will change the proxy rules.

Patterson says each proxy is an active Republican who has given money or time to help Republican groups and candidates. She notes the story of a deployed soldier who successfully got his vote counted because of proxy voting.

Frank supports Allen’s proposal to get rid of proxies but argues Allen missed the deadline to change the bylaws. Frank says he understands the process.

Allen says Munger and McCarthy have gamed the proxy system. He says Patterson was their point person on proxy harvesting.

Hon. John Moorlach asks about Frank’s experience.

Frank chaired Youth for Nixon. He speaks of helping candidates for Congress, State, County, City, and other local offices.

A red-haired woman asks who is going to combat Democrat ballot harvesting and their access to DMV data.

Allen warns of consultants’ political plans that enrich themselves. He calls for grassroots efforts, pointing to his street and precinct captains. He wants to litigate ballot harvesting.

Frank calls for church ballot harvesting. He describes his 15-page plan for the CRP.

Patterson wants to empower County parties and retool messaging. She says growing the party requires year-round outreach to people who are not normally engaged with the party. She blasts grassroots precinct efforts being replaced by paid precinct efforts.

Whitaker thanks the candidates.

Eva, the November Volunteer of the Month, is recognized for her efforts in the 65th Assembly District during the 2018 election. Alexandria Coronado speaks of Eva immigrating legally from a Communist nation. Coronado lists numerous things Eva tirelessly did. Eva gives remarks of thanks, speaks about her immigration, and explains her belief in Republican ideals driving why she worked so hard as an election volunteer. Eva receives certificates from the offices of various elected officials.

Kristin, the December Volunteer of the Month, is recognized for her efforts volunteering on campaigns and at the Registrar of Voters after the election. She gives her remarks of thanks and receives certificates from the offices of various elected officials.

Katie Pringle is nominated and elected as the County Party’s delegate for the vacant 69th Assembly District at the CRP.

Whitaker brings the endorsement for Third District Supervisor.

Hon. Gene Hernandez moves and Mary Young seconds endorsing Don Wagner for Third District Supervisor.

Hon. Deborah Pauly objects.

Hernandez speaks of Wagner’s conservative leadership on union issues, education, and fiscal issues. He speaks of Wagner’s conservative record on the College Board, in the State Assembly, and as Mayor.

Pauly argues that Republicans voted for Democrats for reasons of honor and integrity. She argues Whitaker has a narrow definition of stakeholders. She says endorsing her opponent is a mistake. She claims he is bought and paid for by developers. She says filing has not closed yet, and no one has qualified for the race. She expresses concern about the potential Irvine mayoral vacancy.

By a voice vote, Wagner is endorsed in a landslide.

After his endorsement, Wagner speaks of his 14% victory for Mayor. Wagner shows a posting from Loretta Sanchez. He warns that this election is the first campaign of November 2020. He notes the Mayors of every city in the district are endorsing him, except for Irvine (because he is the Mayor of Irvine) and Anaheim (where Kris Murray is from), but notes he does have the endorsement of the Mayor Pro Tem of Irvine and that Anaheim is only 11% of the Third District.

Various club announcements are made.

The committee adjourns to closed session at approximately 8:50 PM.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, Republican Central Committee | 3 Comments »