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CD-39: Royce, Chen, and Chen SuperPAC Spend $2.7 Million or How My Father Received Over 41 Feet of Mail

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 2, 2012

Jay Chen & Ed Royce

Democrat Jay Chen is challenging Republican Representative Ed Royce

151,311 voters live in the City of Anaheim: 10,196 voters live in Ed Royce’s 39th Congressional District, 27,431 live in John Campbell’s 45th Congressional District, and 113,684 live in Loretta Sanchez’s 46th Congressional District.  You’ve seen Emami’s endless mail count on the Anaheim City Council race, but he has the good fortune to be one of the 27,431 Anaheim voters in CD-45.  This is a tale of the mailboxes for the 10,196 Anaheim voters in CD-39.

(For those of you wondering, Gail Eastman lives in Sanchez’s CD-46, Harry Sidhu lives in Royce’s CD-39, and Lorri Galloway, Kris Murray, and Tom Tait live in Campbell’s CD-45.  For those of you wondering for even more info, Steve Chavez Lodge lives in Campbell’s CD-45 while Lucille Kring, John Leos, and Jordan Brandman all live in Sanchez’s CD-46.)

Before I get into the mail, I should note there are precinct walkers and phone bankers from both camps scurrying and calling across CD-39.

An OC Political friend passed on a transcript he made of a phone call he received from the Jay Chen campaign in October.  The content of this script is clearly geared toward Republicans, and the OC Political friend who transcribed this call is a high-propensity Republican in a pure Republican household.

Here’s the transcript…

Hi.  Good afternoon.  My name is Andrew and I am a volunteer with the Jay Chen for Congress Campaign.

I’m calling you today to tell you a little bit about Jay and about his campaign for congress in your district.

Jay is a small businessman, a school board member and US Naval Reserves intelligence officer who is running to represent you in Congress.

Unlike his opponent, Ed Royce, Jay volunteered to serve our country and he will protect our veterans when they come home.

Jay was recruited right out of Harvard University to work for Bain and Company, a section of the successful Bain Capital, and he has valuable experience balancing the books and improving results without raising taxes.

Jay is clearly the right person to serve this district in Washington.  For more information about Jay or our campaign, please visit our website at chenforcongress.com.  And since you are registered to vote by mail your ballots will be arriving around October 8th.  Please remember to vote and sent them back in.

Thank you for very much your time and I hope you vote for Jay in the upcoming November election.

Here’s an excerpt from Chen’s 2011 school board re-election campaign biography:

In 2002 Jay joined Bain & Company, a global business consulting firm. While at Bain he worked closely with top executives of Fortune 500 companies to develop and implement crucial business strategies. He managed the roll-out and evaluation of new products for a global logistics company and analyzed the cost-savings for a mergers and acquisition in the technology space with a combined value of over $1 billion. Jay believes his financial and business experience will be of great value to the school board, which manages an operating budget of over $360 million dollars and nearly 3000 employees.

Anyone else find it fun that Democrat Jay Chen is touting his Bain experience while Republican Mitt Romney is getting trashed for his Bain experienced by national Democrats?

Now, on to the money: From July 1 to October 17, Royce spent $1,232,479 while Chen spent $406,351.  However, Super PAC America Shining (run by Chen’s brother) has spent $762,316, with $65,894 supporting Chen and $696,162 against Royce.

In other words, between America Shining and Jay Chen, the pro-Chen/anti-Royce spending since July 1 has reached $1,458,478 while Ed Royce has spent $1,232,479.

For both candidates, over 60% of their direct contributions came from individual citizens.  However, if you account for America Shining, the pro-Chen/anti-Royce money received has been 52% from PACs, and 33% from individual citizens, while pro-Royce/anti-Chen money that’s been received is 62% from individual citizens and 36% from PACs.

While Emami religiously scans each piece of mail that falls into his hand, I’m just going to take a picture of all the mail.  For my father, who is likely in the most coveted demographic group in all of CD-39 (high-propensity Asian independent), this is what $2.7 million of campaign spending looks like:

35 Pieces of CD-39 Mail

My poor father was inundated with CD-39 mail

He’s received 36 mailers, and there’s still three more mailing days before Election Day (today, tomorrow, and Monday).  I “only” received 15 mailers, and my Republican mother “only” received 8 mailers.  Inexplicably, my independent sister only got 1 mailer (it was pro-Royce).

I should note my 52-year-old father was not pleased to receive the America Shining piece entitled, “Senior News.”

Here are other ways to look at the 36 mailers sent to Dad:

  • Stacked on top of each other, they are 1/2 inch thick.
  • They weigh a combined 1 lb. 7 oz.
  • Laid end to end, they are 41 feet, 3 inches long.

They have achieved near-perfect parity in Dad’s collection:

  • 18 from Royce’s side, 18 from Chen’s side
  • 6 pro-Royce, 4 pro-Chen
  • 12 anti-Chen, 14 anti-Royce

From my father’s mail: For every pro-Royce, there were exactly two anti-Chen pieces.  For every pro-Chen piece, there were more than three anti-Royce pieces.  While both sides have sent virtually the same amount of mail and both have been pretty negative, Chen’s side has sent out more negative mail and less positive mail than Royce’s side.

Apparently, as registered Republicans, my mother and I were each ignored by Chen.  All 15 of my mailers and all 8 of hers were from Royce.  I received 6 pro-Royce and 9 anti-Chen.  Mom received 2 pro-Royce and 6 anti-Chen.

The anti-Chen pieces are making an impact on regular voters: one of my mother’s co-workers dislikes Chen because he seems so creepy because he’s always behind sunglasses in his pictures.  None of Chen’s photos have him behind sunglasses, except the one being used on Royce’s anti-Chen pieces.

In CD-39, postal workers and mailhouses are getting together to throw a big party about the post offices saved from closure and the mailhouses’ unexpected 2012 profits, but somewhere, there’s an environmentalist crying about the forests that Chen and Royce destroyed.

On a final note, my father’s siding with the family Republicans: Dad’s voting for Royce.

Posted in 39th Congressional District, Fundraising, Mail | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Atlas PAC: Orange Councilman Jon Dumitru’s Reception & Del Mar Day at the Races

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on June 24, 2012

This came over the wire from Atlas PAC on Friday…

Upcoming Events                                                                  June 22, 2012
Reception for Orange City Councilman Jon Dumitru

Posted in California, Fundraising, Orange | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

AD-72 Spending: Edgar $232,000, Pham $106,000, Allen $62,000, Dovinh $16,000

Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 25, 2012

Troy Edgar, Long Pham, Travis Allen, Joe Dovinh

Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos), OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley), Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach), and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove)

In the 72nd Assembly District race, Republican Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar spent $212,250 during the March 18-May 19 reporting period.  This brings his total spending in the AD-72 race to $231,974.  Surprisingly, this leaves only $10,791 in his warchest.  However, the independently wealthy Edgar can easily write a check to his own campaign (indeed, he put $400,000 into his Congressional warchest before deciding to run for the Assembly instead).

Republican Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham spent $62,675 during the March 18-May 19 reporting period, bringing his total spending in the AD-72 race to $106,072.  He has only $1,412 left in his warchest.

Republican Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen spent $54,233 during the March 18-May 19 reporting period, bringing his total spending in the AD-72 race to $62,406.  He has $23,389 left in his warchest.

Democratic Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh spent $6,699 during the March 18-May 19 reporting period, brining his total spending in the AD-72 race to $16,352.  He has $5,493 left in his warchest.

Democratic Candidate Albert Ayala did not meet the $1,000 threshold to file a campaign finance report.

There are no reported independent expenditures in this race.

Edgar spent the bulk of his money on reaching actual voters. He spent $119,433 on campaign mail and literature.  He spent another $30,595 on slate mailers.  That’s $150,028 of his $231,974 (65%) of his spending going to voter communication.

Pham just had a lot of overhead expenses.  He spent $25,115 on slate mailers, $3,500 on TV ads, and $1,548 on palm cards.  The rest of his spending went into campaign consulting fees, miscellaneous personnel costs, a $1,748 photography expenditure, and other overhead.  That’s $30,163 of his $106,072 (28%) of his spending going to voter communication.

Allen suffered much of the same spending problems that Pham did.  He spent $15,860 on campaign mail and literature and $5,000 in print ads.  The rest of his spending went into campaign consulting fees, miscellaneous personnel costs, a $12,650 poll, a $900 photography expenditure, and other overhead.  That’s $20,860 of his $62,406 (33%) of his spending going to voter communication.

Dovinh spent $4,063 on the COPS Voter Guide slate mailer, $1,315 on print ads, and $765 on campaign literature.  The rest of his spending went into various personnel expenses and the occasional other overhead.  That’s $6,143 of his $16,352 (38%) of his spending going to voter communication.

For visual learners:

Cash on
Edgar $150,028 $81,946 $231,974 $10,791
Pham $30,163 $75,909 $106,072 $1,412
Allen $20,860 $41,546 $62,406 $23,389
Dovinh $6,143 $10,209 $16,352 $5,493

It’s interesting how close Edgar and Pham’s personnel/overhead costs are, but Edgar has spent five times as much on actually reaching voters.

It is clear that Edgar is dominating the voter communication in AD-72, with nearly three times as much as his opponents combined.  Edgar will come in first by a comfortable margin.  It’s probably already too late for any of the other candidates to catch him.  While Dovinh spent the least of the four, he still remains the higher spending Democrat.  With the Republican vote split three ways and the Democratic vote split only two ways, the top two candidates in June will be Edgar and Dovinh, who will advance to the November general election.

Posted in 72nd Assembly District, Fundraising | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Todd Spitzer: Come out and meet KFI’s Bill Handel this Friday night

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 4, 2012

This came over the wire from the Todd Spitzer for Supervisor campaign on Tuesday…

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, Fundraising | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

CD-47: DeLong Raised More & Has More Cash on Hand Than All Opponents Combined; Lowenthal Second; Kuykendall Distant Third

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 18, 2012

Gary DeLong, Steve Kuykendall, and Alan Lowenthal

Councilman Gary DeLong (R-Long Beach), former U.S. Congressman Steve Kuykendall (R-Long Beach), and State Senator Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach)

In the CD-47 race, the lion’s share of the money has definitely been raised/held/spent by Councilman Gary DeLong (R-Long Beach).  DeLong raised $572,501, spent $168,209, and has $404,292 cash on hand (with only $6,000 in unpaid bills).  What’s even more stunning is that 97% of the money DeLong raised was from individuals, with only 3% coming from PACs.

State Senator Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach) raised $378,409, spent $95,119, and has $283,291 cash on hand (with $13,149 in unpaid bills).  59% of the money Lowenthal raised was from individuals, with 39% coming from PACs.

PACs only contributed to Lowenthal and DeLong but Lowenthal received almost 9 times what DeLong did in PAC money, yet the strength of DeLong’s contributions from individuals powered him well past Lowenthal.

Former Congressman Steve Kuykendall (R-Long Beach) raised $103,968 (excluding his $20,000 personal loan), spent $98,552, and has $5,416 cash on hand (excluding his $20,000 personal loan, and with $14,890 in unpaid bills).

For visual learners:

Candidate Contributions Candidate
Expenditures Cash on
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
& Loans
DeLong (R) $572,501 $0 $6,000 $168,209 $404,292 $398,292 $398,292
Lowenthal (D) $378,409 $0 $13,149 $95,119 $283,291 $270,142 $270,142
Kuykendall (R) $103,968 $20,000 $14,890 $98,552 $5,416 -$9,474 -$29,474

(Of the minor candidates, Republican Sanford Kahn gave his own campaign $9,350, spent $8,636, and has $713 cash on hand while Democrat Peter Mathews raised $120 [excluding a $50 contribution from himself], spent $104, and has $110 cash on hand.  Democrat Usha Shah reported no money raised and no cash on hand.  Democrat Jay Shah [Usha’s husband] and Republican Steve Foley did not report any activity.)

DeLong’s $572,501 was 54% of all money raised in the CD-47 race, and his $404,292 cash on hand is 58% of all cash on hand in the CD-47 race.  DeLong’s $168,209 in spending was 45% of all money spent so far in the CD-47 race, with 27% spent by Kuykendall, 26% spent by Lowenthal, and 2% spent by the minor candidates.

DeLong is the clearly the winner in the money race by a substantial margin, and will likely advance beyond June, setting up a November showdown between DeLong and Lowenthal.  The question for November is: how much money will the NRCC and DCCC drop on this race?

Posted in 47th Congressional District, Fundraising | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

David Overtaking Goliath: Pauly Raises More Than Double the Money Spitzer Raised in 2012

Posted by The Rock of OC on April 11, 2012

You read that headline right: Deborah Pauly raised more money than the vaunted Todd Spitzer money machine in 2012.  Not just more, but more than double.

According to the latest campaign finance reports, Spitzer raised $3,100 while Pauly raised $7,578.  That’s right: David raised more than double what Goliath did.

This is a clear sign that the momentum is shifting toward Deborah Pauly.  True conservatives are holding their money back from special-interest Spitzer.  Pauly’s gain in momentum is clearly causing union-supporter Spitzer’s money to dry up.

The donors are beginning to realize that the people don’t want bought and paid career politicians who do the bidding of their masters.   They are tired of Orange County being pillaged by the special interests that suck at the public teat.

The people’s eyes are open, and the donors realize it.

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, Fundraising | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

AD-72: Edgar Builds Dominant Warchest, Larger Than All Opponents Combined – Even Without Using His Vast Personal Wealth

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 27, 2012

Troy Edgar, Long Pham, Travis Allen, Joe Dovinh

Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos), OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley), Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach), and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove)

In the 72nd Assembly District during the period ending March 17, Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar has built the dominant warchest in AD-72.  I cannot find any way in which Edgar does not lead the pack.  No matter how you slice it and dice it, Edgar has the most money in AD-72.

Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham, Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen, and Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (the sole Democrat other than the penniless Albert Ayala) are all well behind Edgar in every way you can calculate the campaign finance numbers.

During this period, Edgar raised $18,336.  His three opponents raised $18,611 combined, just $275 more than Edgar.

Edgar also transferred a whopping $84,399 from his Congressional campaign committee.

On top of that, Edgar made a direct contribution to his campaign of $15,025 – not a loan, but an outright contribution that he can never get refunded (FPPC regulations prohibit a candidate from ever refunding their own non-loan contributions to their own campaign committees).  This $15,025 is above the $100,000 loan Edgar made to his campaign (remember, the FPPC caps candidate loans at $100,000; anything above that can never be repaid to the candidate).

Edgar has $203,040 cash on hand (accounting for unpaid bills), which is $94,637 more cash on hand than all three of his opponents combined (accounting for unpaid bills).  If candidate loans were paid off, Edgar still has $103,040 cash on hand, as compared to the next largest warchest, which is Allen’s at $2,467, followed by Dovinh’s $402, and Pham’s debt of $45,466.

At this point, it is unclear if Edgar’s chief rival will be Allen or Pham.  Pham loaned his campaign $100,000, but unlike most candidates who use candidate loans to pad their campaign finance figures, he has actually spent a substantial portion of that loan.  Allen only loaned his campaign $50,000, and has not yet spent it yet.

By virtue of having “Democrat” after his name on the ballot, Dovinh will likely advance to November to face off against one of the Republican trio.

For visual learners:

Candidate Cash on Hand
Contributions Candidate
Other Income Transfers Candidate
Expenditures Cash on Hand
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
& Loans
Edgar (R) $0 $18,336 $15,025 $0 $84,399 $100,000 $4,000 $10,721 $207,040 $203,040 $103,040
Allen (R) $0 $8,505 $0 $0 $0 $50,000 $6,038 $0 $58,505 $52,467 $2,467
Pham (R) $90,485 $3,571 $0 $12 $0 $100,000 $5,920 $33,614 $60,454 $54,534 -$45,466
Dovinh (D) $3,420 $6,535 $0 $0 $0 $1,000 $317 $8,236 $1,719 $1,402 $402
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.
Pham and Dovinh’s loans were made in the previous reporting period of 7/1/2011-12/31/2011.
Democrat Albert Ayala did not have a campaign committee, which means he raised less than $1,000, as reaching that threshold forces a candidate to form a campaign committee.

The Edgar warchest is dominant at this point in the fundraising game.  Unless his opponents start shelling out more of their own cash or achieve some sort of fundraising boom, they’re in serious trouble.  (Although if they start shelling out their own cash, the multimillionaire Edgar should be able to easily match that.)  The primary election is 10 weeks from today.

Posted in 72nd Assembly District, Fundraising | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

AD-74: Mansoor Roars on Fundraising, Rush Loans Campaign $100K, Daigle Only Adds $17K

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 26, 2012

Allan Mansoor, Leslie Daigle, Robert Rush

Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R-Costa Mesa), Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R-Newport Beach), and Businessman Robert Rush (D-Newport Beach)

Long accused of being a poor fundraiser, Republican Assemblyman Allan Mansoor‘s campaign finance reports show the donors are beginning to rally around Mansoor.

During the January 1-March 17 fundraising period, Mansoor raised $61,135 in contributions and dropped another $30,000 into his campaign warchest, growing it by $91,135.  During the same period, Republican Newport Beach City Councilwoman Leslie Daigle raised $17,577 in contributions.

Surprisingly, Democrat Robert Rush loaned his campaign $99,999.  He received three contributions during this time, all of which were at the maximum legal limit of $3,900.  The three were from The Bascom Group in Irvine and two of the principals from that same business.

Mansoor spent $32,477, Daigle spent $29,324, and Rush spent $7,661.

Mansoor now has $115,371 cash on hand, Daigle has $107,956 cash on hand, and Rush has $104,038 cash on hand.  The money race is too close for Daigle; she needs to have a dominating cash lead to even have hope of making it to November.

There’s no way to quantify this, as it’s more art than science, but ultimately, Mansoor does not even need to outspend Daigle.  The “California Assemblyman” ballot designation is worth probably $200,000 in a primary.  Daigle will need to outspend Mansoor roughly 2-to-1 to unseat him, and I just don’t see that happening.  Similarly, Rush does not need to outspend Daigle.  The word “Democrat” after Rush’s name is worth probably $200,000 in the AD-74 primary.  Having the word “Republican” is worth probably $300,000 in AD-74, but that’s split between Mansoor and Daigle.  Therefore, being a Republican California Assemblyman on the ballot is worth $350,000 for Mansoor, being identified on the ballot as a Republican is worth $150,000 for Daigle, and being identified on the ballot as a Democrat is worth $200,000 for Rush.  Furthermore, Mansoor has no problem on his right flank, and Rush has no problem on his left flank, so they can both come after Daigle’s voters in the center.

Daigle will need to spend a fortune to form a coalition of anti-incumbent Republicans, Democrats willing to vote for a Republican, and independents who are both anti-incumbent and anti-Democrat.  There’s a certain bloc of voters who will automatically vote for Mansoor because he has “California Assemblyman” as his ballot designation, and there’s a certain bloc of voters who will automatically vote for Rush because he has “Democrat” as his party affiliation, but Daigle has no natural bloc of automatic voters.  She will have to outspend both Mansoor and Rush to pull together enough votes to reach second place to get to November.

42% of AD-74 voters are registered Republicans, 29% are registered Democrats, 24% are registered as No Party Preference, and 5% are registed as members of third parties.  If Daigle grabs 30% of Republicans from Mansoor and 25% of Democrats from Rush (remember, she does have the word “Republican” after her name on the ballot even if she is to the left of Mansoor), that gives her 20% of the vote, Mansoor 29% of the vote, and Rush 22% of the vote.  That leaves the 29% of the vote from independent and minor party voters.  Say she gets 36% of those people and Mansoor and Rush each get 32%.  That brings Daigle up to 30%, Mansoor to 37%, and Rush 31%.  She would still fail to make it to November.

However, her problem is compounded because independent voters, moderate Republicans, and moderate Democrats are less likely to vote in primaries, so you get the hard core partisans in primaries.  That means loyal Mansoor Republicans and loyal Rush Democrats will be disproportionately high.   This is why to advance to November, Daigle must substantially outspend both Mansoor and Rush, who will only need to spend enough money to reinforce their bases.  I suspect Mansoor captures half the vote, Rush will end up in the high 20s, and Daigle in the low 20s.

Barring a six-figure infusion of cash over the next two months (along with a complete failure of her opponents to fundraise), Daigle is caught between a Rush rock and a Mansoor hard place.

Posted in 74th Assembly District, Fundraising | Tagged: , , | 3 Comments »

Jon Dumitru for Mayor Fundraiser

Posted by Thomas Gordon on March 20, 2012


Last night the next Mayor of Orange, Jon Dumitru, invited me and you to his next fundraiser at one of the hippest joints in Downtown Orange, The District Lounge. If you’ve yet to visit now is the time.

Jon and his fellow Conservatives in Orange have done an amazing job in ensuring that business thrives in Orange and I’m looking forward to seeing the road ahead under Mayor Dumitru.

Posted in Fundraising, Orange | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Invitation to Steven Choi for Mayor Campaign Kickoff Fundraiser

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on March 8, 2012

This came over the wire from the Steven Choi for Mayor campaign…

You are cordially invited to join
Steven Choi for Mayor 2012
Kickoff Fundraiser

Thursday, March 8, 2012
6:00 PM-8:30 PM

Caspian Persian Restaurant
14100 Culver Dr.
Irvine, CA 92606

Keynote Speakers:
Assemblyman (ret.) Todd Spitzer
Councilman Jeff Lalloway

Honorary Host Committee: Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Fundraising, Irvine | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

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