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Posts Tagged ‘Janet Nguyen’

Are Unions Using Phat Bui as a Decoy for Michele Martinez?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 9, 2016

Andrew Do, Michele Martinez, Steve Rocco, and Phat Bui

Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster), Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D-Santa Ana), Steve Rocco (NPP-Santa Ana), and Councilman Phat Bui (R-Garden Grove)

Since I broke the story Friday of Garden Grove Councilman Phat Bui (R) pulling papers for First District Supervisor, I’ve had many people ask why Bui is joining convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco (NPP) and Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D) in challenging the re-election bid of Supervisor Andrew Do (R).

I have heard lots of different rumors as to why Bui is running, considering he is a Councilman just 15 months into his first term. The most logical conclusion is that labor unions have either put Bui up to this or have tricked Bui into running in order to split the Vietnamese-American vote, the Republican vote, and the Garden Grove vote to force a run-off election between Do and Martinez.

Democrats have been plagued by low voter turnout throughout the presidential primaries and caucuses between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders while Republican voter turnout has been at record levels in nearly every state.

Democrats and labor unions hope forcing Do into a run-off against Martinez will utilize the high presidential general election turnout of Democrats and Latinos to allow Martinez to pull off an upset.  While it is unlikely Martinez would win, this scenario is still the best hope she has of victory.

Bui’s City Council election web site showed only eight endorsements: Orange County District Attorney Tony Rackauckas, a labor union, two non-Orange County elected officials, and four private citizens.  With Rackauckas endorsing Do, that only leaves labor in Bui’s corner.

Labor knows they need Martinez in the run-off, and Bui’s entry helps that effort.

It is still possible for Do to break 50% and avert a run-off.  Do likely would have been able to easily do so in a Do-Martinez-Rocco field.  With Bui in the race, Martinez’s supporters can hope Bui can siphon off enough votes to keep Do under 50%.

Bui was probably either promised lots of support that won’t materialize (in which case he was tricked into running) or else told to be a spoiler with the promise of support for something else in the future.

Things tend to go poorly for Vietnamese American elected officials who try to unseat other Vietnamese American elected officials.  For example, eight years ago, Garden Grove Councilwoman Dina Nguyen challenged Supervisor Janet Nguyen’s re-election to this same seat.  Janet Nguyen is now a Senator while Dina Nguyen is now on a water board.

Shunned by the Republican Party and abandoned by labor is not a great spot for any Republican elected official.  This candidacy for Supervisor could lead to being in a no-man’s land, which is not a great place for a newly-elected Councilman.

(Cue my usual Nguyen disclaimer: I am not related to the State Senator Janet Nguyen or Water Board Director Dina Nguyen.  The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

1st District Chaos: Garden Grove Councilman Phat Bui Pulls Papers to Challenge Andrew Do

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 4, 2016

Andrew Do, Michele Martinez, Steve Rocco, and Phat Bui

Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster), Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D-Santa Ana), Steve Rocco (NPP-Santa Ana), and Councilman Phat Bui (R-Garden Grove)

Garden Grove Councilman Phat Bui (R) has joined convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco (NPP) in pulling papers to challenge the re-election bid of Supervisor Andrew Do (R).  Additionally, Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D) and the enigmatic Robert Bao Nguyen have also pulled papers to challenge Do’s re-election bid in the First Supervisorial District, which consists of Santa Ana, Garden Grove, Westminster, Midway City, and northern Fountain Valley.

Bui’s entry into the race had been rumored for days, with Bui himself reportedly seeking support for his race in Sacramento on Wednesday despite the Republican Party’s official endorsement of Do’s re-election.

Bui, who was just elected to the Garden Grove City Council just sixteen months ago with labor union support, is the third member of his council to make a bid for higher office in the last fourteen months, joining Mayor Bao Nguyen (D), who is currently running for the 46th Congressional District but trails former Senator Lou Correa (D) badly in polling, and Councilman Chris Phan (R), who made an ill-fated bid for First District Supervisor against Do and Correa, coming in a distant third.

Bui’s home had displayed signs supporting both Correa and Phan in the 2015 special election for Supervisor that Do had won.

By splitting the Vietnamese-American vote, the Republican vote, and the Garden Grove vote, Republican Bui’s entry into the race substantially increases the risk of forcing a Do-Martinez run-off, which many Democrats hope and many Republicans fear will pull resources away from the re-election bid of Assemblywoman Young Kim (R) against former Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva (D) and the Senate bid of Assemblywoman Ling-Ling Chang (R) against former Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang (D).

There’s no perfectly analogous race, but these are the four closest I’m aware of:

  • In 2014, there was a five-way race for Auditor-Controller, featuring Orange Treasurer/CPA Eric Woolery (R), Property Tax Director Frank Davies (R), Accountant Mike Dalati (D), Assistant Human Resources Director John Willard (NPP), and Audit Advisor Jim Benuzzi (D).  Woolery won 57%, Davies 17%, Dalati 11%, Willard 7%, and Benuzzi 7%.  Despite not being the incumbent, Woolery managed to avoid a run-off in a five-way race.
  • In 2014, Clerk-Recorder Hugh Nguyen (R) was challenged for re-election by Businesswoman Monica Maddox (R), Capistrano Unified School District Trustee Gary Pritchard (D), and convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco (NPP).  Nguyen avoided a run-off by winning 61% of the vote to Maddox’s 18%, Pritchard’s 12%, and Rocco’s 8%.
  • In 2010, Public Administrator John Williams (R) was challenged by Superior Court Clerk Colleen Callahan, convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco (DTS), and Deputy Public Guardian Kevin Vann (D).  Williams avoided a run-off by winning 58% of the vote to Callahan’s 24%, Rocco’s 11%, and Vann’s 7%.
  • In 1998, Supervisor Jim Silva (R) was challenged for re-election by Huntington Beach Councilman Dave Sullivan (R), former Costa Mesa Councilwoman Sandy Genis (R), and a mysterious Ralph Silva.  Jim Silva won 45%, Sullivan 26%, Genis 17%, and Ralph Silva 11%.  In the run-off, Silva defeated Sullivan 56%-44%.

It appears the current Garden Grove Councilmembers are dreaming of replicating the success of their predecessors: in 2012, Phan won the seat that was once held by Do and once held by former State Assemblyman Ken Maddox (R); State Senator Janet Nguyen (R) also previously sat on the Garden Grove City Council (her former seat is now held by Councilman Steve Jones, also a Republican).

Cue my usual Nguyen disclaimer: I am not related to the mysterious Robert Bao Nguyen, Garden Grove Mayor Bao Nguyen, Clerk-Recorder Hugh Nguyen, or State Senator Janet Nguyen.  The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

County Board of Ed President Robert Hammond to Kick Off Re-Election Thursday

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 26, 2016

Orange County Board of Education President Robert M. Hammond is kicking off his re-election on Thursday at 6:00 PM at the Bluewater Grill in Tustin.

Hammond may well be the first person ever whose endorsements include both former Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante (D) and current State Senator John Moorlach (R).  Moorlach’s challenger for re-election to the Senate, Assemblyman Don Wagner (R), has also endorsed Hammond.

Besides Lieutenant Governor Bustamante, Hammond’s endorsements also include the majority of Orange County’s State Senate delegation, State Assembly delegation, Board of Supervisors, and Countywide officeholders.

hammondkickoff

(In the interest of full disclosure, the consulting firm that owns OC Political ran Hammond’s successful 2012 bid for County Board of Education and is running his 2016 re-election bid.)

Posted in Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

A Closer Look at SD-37: Newport-Mesa Delivered Nearly All of Moorlach’s Margin of Victory Over Wagner

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 23, 2015

The Registrar of Voters certified the 37th Senate District Special Election on Friday night, John Moorlach took the oath of office yesterday afternoon, and he will be on the Senate Floor at his desk for the first time at 2:00 PM today while Don Wagner will be back on the Assembly Floor at 12:00 PM today.

We’ve all seen the official results districtwide, with Moorlach avoiding a runoff by 199 votes:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 38,125 50.3%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 33,411 44.0%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,621 3.5%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,696 2.2%

 

Besides both being conservative Republican legislators from Orange County, there’s something else Moorlach and Wagner have in common: their most recent constituents like them.  In the 37th Senate District special election, Moorlach won the 2nd Supervisorial District while Wagner won the 68th Assembly District.  Turnout in the 2nd Supervisorial District was 16.8% while turnout in the 68th Assembly District was 15.0%.

Winner by City in the 37th Senate District Special Election

Winner by city or unincorporated area in the 37th Senate District Special Election.  (Note: the sizes of their heads have nothing to do with their vote margin in that community, it’s just the geographic size of the community that did it.  Laguna Woods and Laguna Beach are very oddly-shaped cities.)

The 68th, the 2nd, and Neutral Territory

In the 68th Assembly District (Anaheim Hills, Lake Forest, Orange, Tustin, Villa Park, and the northeastern 1/3 of Irvine), Wagner defeated Moorlach by almost the identical percentage (5.3%) that Moorlach beat Wagner overall in the 37th Senate District (6.3%).  (For those who care to an incredible level of detail, the charts are near the bottom of this post.)

In the 2nd Supervisorial District (Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, and Newport Beach), Moorlach beat Wagner by a whopping 20.6%.

In the neutral territory outside the 68th and the 2nd (Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, and the southwestern 2/3 of Irvine), Wagner defeated Moorlach by a large 18.5% margin.  (To add insult to injury for Naz Namazi, write-in candidate Louise Stewardson beat her in these areas.)  In a testament to how fed up voters were with negative campaigning, it was in these areas where Stewardson and Namazi did the best, getting a combined 8.9% here as opposed to 5.4% in the 2nd and 4.5% in the 68th since there was no “favorite son” candidate in these areas.

Moorlach’s Newport Beach-Costa Mesa Landslide

Moorlach’s margin of victory in his hometown of Costa Mesa was a whopping 25.4% (1,712 votes) and in Newport Beach, it was an even larger 27.9% (2,996 votes).

Costa Mesa and Newport Beach combined to give Moorlach 4,708 more votes than Wagner.  Districtwide, Moorlach defeated Wagner by 4,714 votes.  In other words, without Costa Mesa and Newport Beach, Moorlach would have been ahead of Wagner by just 6 votes, and obviously, there would have been a run-off.

Moorlach also held on to the other 2nd District city, Huntington Beach, by a margin of 7.3% (599 votes).

Moorlach Won Portions of the 68th While Holding All of the 2nd

There were three critical areas where Moorlach broke into Wagner’s home turf: Anaheim Hills, Villa Park, and Silverado.  Had Wagner been able to stop the Moorlach incursion into those three areas of the 68th Assembly District, there would have been a run-off.

The Anaheim Hills votes are interesting in that Moorlach beat Wagner by 76 votes in Anaheim Hills overall, but Wagner beat Moorlach by 7 votes in the 39th Congressional District.  The only portions of the 39th Congressional District that overlap with SD-37 are in Anaheim Hills.  Anaheim Mayor Tom Tait endorsed Moorlach and did a robocall for him.  Congressman Ed Royce endorsed Wagner, did a robocall for him, and was listed on Wagner’s mail as an endorser.

It appears Tait managed to push Anaheim Hills out of the 68th District’s generally pro-Wagner voting pattern, but Royce was able to push his Congressional District back into Wagner’s column.  This war of endorsements from popular elected officials and of campaign mail probably explains why Anaheim Hills was the closest city in the entire district.  (We can rule out most precinct walking operations since the “Hills” name is very, very apt compared to the rest of the relatively flat SD-37.)

Moorlach was endorsed in Villa Park by Mayor Rick Barnett, Councilman Bill Nelson, Councilman Robert Collacott, and former Councilwoman Deborah Pauly.  Wagner was endorsed in Villa Park by Councilman Greg Mills and Councilwoman Diana Fascinelli.  Pauly ran Moorlach’s ground operations, which caused Villa Park to buck the trend of the 68th District backing Wagner.

I have no explanation for Silverado.

Moorlach Won the Liberal Pockets of SD-37

In spite of all the union independent expenditures against Moorlach and/or for Wagner, Moorlach actually won the liberal City of Laguna Beach and the flag-banning precincts of UC Irvine.

Tables Galore

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
68th Assembly District Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 17,213 50.4%
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 15,418 45.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 1,192 3.5%
Louise Stewardson (W) 360 1.0%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
2nd Supervisorial District Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 15,633 57.6%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 10,030 37.0%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 815 3.0%
Louise Stewardson (W) 651 2.4%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Excluding 68th Assembly District and 2nd Supervisorial District Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 7,963 54.8%
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 5,279 36.3%
Louise Stewardson (W) 685 4.7%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 614 4.2%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Costa Mesa Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 3,979 59.1%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 2,267 33.7%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 254 3.8%
Louise Stewardson (W) 234 3.5%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Newport Beach Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 6,651 61.9%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 3,655 34.0%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 263 2.4%
Louise Stewardson (W) 177 1.7%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Excluding Costa Mesa and Newport Beach Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 27,495 47.1%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 27,489 47.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,104 3.6%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,285 2.2%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Huntington Beach Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 4,188 50.6%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 3,589 43.3%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 264 3.2%
Louise Stewardson (W) 240 2.9%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Anaheim Hills Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 2,579 48.4%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 2,503 46.9%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 205 3.8%
Louise Stewardson (W) 46 0.9%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Villa Park Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 651 60.8%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 396 37.0%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 23 2.2%
Louise Stewardson (W) 0 0.0%

 

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Silverado Precincts
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 35 58.3%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 21 35.0%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 3 5.0%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1 1.7%

 

Random Trivia Not Worth a Separate Post

For anybody wondering, Moorlach will be seated in the front row on the Senate Floor and will be seatmates with Cathleen Galgiani (D-Stockton).  Moorlach will be one of only two Republicans with a Democrat as a seatmate: the other bipartisan pair of seatmates are Anthony Cannella (R-Ceres) and Jerry Hill (D-San Mateo).  Moorlach will be diagonally seated from his old colleague of eight years on the Board of Supervisors, Janet Nguyen (R-Garden Grove), whose seatmate is their eight-year colleague on the Board of Supervisors, Patricia Bates (R-Laguna Niguel).

Moorlach Seat in the Senate

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, 68th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 16 Comments »

Senator-Elect Moorlach’s Lead Shrinks by Insignificant 25 Votes – There Will Be No Run-Off

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 19, 2015

Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach
(R-Costa Mesa)

The Registrar of Voters has counted nearly all non-SB 29 ballots.  450 absentee ballots that arrived in the mail on Election Day have been counted, leaving only 100 left.  3,860 absentee ballots dropped off at the polls have been counted, leaving only 96 left.  All 181 Election Day paper ballots cast at the polls have been counted.  The 788 provisional ballots are still out there, so 4,481 ballots were counted in the fifth set of results, and only 984 of the non-SB 29 ballots remain.  2,440 SB 29 ballots arrived yesterday, and while there are still some SB 29 ballots that will arrive today and tomorrow, those will be fewer in number than 2,440.

The fifth results (yesterday’s count) show:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 36,393 50.3%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 31,870 44.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,490 3.4%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,589 2.2%

 

In the fifth results, Moorlach gained 2,185 votes, Wagner 1,883, Namazi 131, and Stewardson 221.  Looked at another way, Moorlach gained 2,185 votes (49.4%) while the other three won 2,235 (50.6%).  (61 undervotes/overvotes were counted yesterday, but they don’t count toward the total since they didn’t cast a valid vote.)

In the fourth results (final Election Night count), Moorlach was averting a run-off by 247 votes.  In the fifth results (yesterday’s count), Moorlach is averting a run-off by 222 votes.

So after counting 4,481 ballots yesterday, with 3,424 left, plus the small number of SB 29 ballots that will arrive today and tomorrow, it would take an unusual reversal of fortune for Moorlach for a run-off to occur.  In every iteration of ballot counts, Moorlach has dropped no lower than 49%.  For a run-off to occur, he’d have to drop to 44% or less in the remaining ballots – that’s not going to happen.

OC Political stands by our Election Night projection that there will be no run-off and John Moorlach will succeed Mimi Walters as State Senator for the 37th District.

With Moorlach’s victory, it appears the road to the California State Senate from Orange County runs through the Hall of Administration.  When was the last time an Orange County Supervisor lost a bid for the California State Senate? The last four Supervisors to run for Senate have been successful: Lou Correa in 2006, Patricia Bates and Janet Nguyen in 2014, and John Moorlach in 2015.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Senator Moorlach

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

This election is over.  There will be no run-off: former Orange County Supervisor John Moorlach is the California State Senator-Elect for the 37th District, rejoining his former colleagues of eight years, Supervisors-turned-Senators Janet Nguyen and Patricia Bates.

Moorlach wins with 50.4%.

The only remaining ballots are absentee ballots that were returned at the polls, SB 29 ballots (i.e. absentee ballots that will arrive in the mail by Friday), and provisional ballots.  It is highly unlikely there are a large enough number to make a difference.  Additionally, Moorlach seemed to gain ground with later ballots, so in all likelihood, the later ballots will only further cement Moorlach’s victory.

Here are the results after early absentees and all poll votes from 248 precincts were counted:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 34,208 50.4%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 29,987 44.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,359 3.5%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,368 2.0%
Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

California State Senator-Elect
John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

 

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , | 12 Comments »

Moorlach Might Win Out Right – Run-Off Looking Less Likely

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 17, 2015

The third results are in:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 171 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 31,856 49.9%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 28,449 44.6%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,266 3.6%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,218 1.9%

 

This third set adds another 89 precincts; combined with 82 precincts already reported, there are now 171 of 248 precincts reporting (69.0%).

Moorlach added 2,127 votes, Wagner added 1,734, Namazi added 88, and Stewardson added 134.

Each update has added another 0.1% to Moorlach.  There are 77 precincts remaining.  It is entirely possible the SB 29 ballots could determine whether there will be a May 19 run-off or if John Moorlach will be a Senator on Friday night.  If Moorlach wins, in a four-month span, the majority of the Orange County Board of Supervisors left the Board and joined the Senate together (Moorlach, Janet Nguyen, and Pat Bates).

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Jim Silva: Conservative leaders rightly back Don Wagner for Senate

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on March 9, 2015

This came over the wire to OC Political earlier today from former Assemblyman/former Supervisor Jim Silva (a slightly edited version was published in the Daily Pilot this afternoon)…

With the special election for state Senate District 37 set for March 17, the familiar lament about negative advertising fills the op-ed pages, blogs and social media sites.

He said this, she said that, he said the other thing, with each of the two front-runners denying the particular charges leveled against them.

So with all this noise, who do you believe? Who is best suited to represent the 37th Senate District in Sacramento?

The answer can be found by looking at the endorsements of the elected officials you know and trust. Assemblyman Don Wagner’s endorsements are a who’s who of Orange County conservative leaders: District Attorney Tony Rackauckas and Sheriff Sandra Hutchens both endorse him as the best candidate to keep our community safe.

Four of the five current county supervisors (Lisa Bartlett, Andrew Do, Todd Spitzer and Michelle Steel), and three of the four who served the last term with candidate John Moorlach (State Senators Janet Nguyen and Patricia Bates as well as Spitzer), have endorsed Wagner as the best candidate to work effectively in Sacramento to pass legislation that helps Orange County and California. Orange County Auditor-Controller Eric Woolery, Assessor Claude Parrish and Clerk-Recorder Hugh Nguyen likewise endorse Wagner.

All three of Orange County’s congressional representatives, Reps. Ed Royce, Mimi Walters and Dana Rohrabacher, the vast majority of the Republican caucus in the state Assembly, and many others round out the overwhelming support Wagner enjoys among those who have worked with him and Moorlach.

The reason for this overwhelming support is simple: Wagner has a well-earned reputation for taking a common-sense approach to the problems that face Orange County and the state and, while maintaining his conservative principles, working across the aisle to get legislation passed and signed by the governor.

That is why Wagner has been recognized as the legislator of the year by the Orange County Republican Party and the Orange County Business Council and has received the Collaborative Lawmaker Award from the Association of California Cities.

Orange County needs a principled and effective leader in the state Senate, and Wagner is that candidate.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Ông Don Wagner được sự ủng hộ của các lãnh đạo Vietnamese American như sau

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 4, 2015

Matt Cunningham over at Anaheim Blog has had pretty thorough coverage of the mailers in the SD-37 special election.  However, I think I got one in the mail yesterday that I’m pretty sure Matt couldn’t possibly have received (unless something is seriously wrong with Don Wagner’s mailer list).

(Click on each thumbnail below for a larger, readable version)

WagnerVietnameseMailerBack

WagnerVietnameseMailerFront

According to PDI, there are 11,980 Vietnamese voters in 7,255 houses in the 37th Senate District.

Wagner’s mailer features his endorsements from the two of the highest-ranking Vietnamese American elected officials in California: Senator Janet Nguyen and Supervisor Andrew Do.  It also features the endorsement of Congressman Ed Royce, who is popular in the Vietnamese community.

Wagner’s mailer also hits on three issues near and dear to Vietnamese voters: small business, education/affirmative action, and taxes.

The Vietnamese vote is truly up for grabs as John Moorlach and Don Wagner have similar name ID.  At the Orange County bankruptcy in 1994, there was one Vietnamese American elected official in the country (not county, country), and the Vietnamese community has become much more engaged in politics since then, but the Orange County bankruptcy is not an issue that resonates with Vietnamese voters, so with this mailer from Wagner, Moorlach will need to respond with his own Vietnamese outreach.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

Three-Candidate All-GOP Race in SD-37 as Filing Closes: Wagner, Moorlach, and Namazi

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 26, 2015

Wagner, Moorlach, and Namazi

The three candidates in the SD-37 special election (all are Republicans): Business Owner/Assemblyman Donald P. Wagner, former Orange County Supervisor John M. W. Moorlach, and Naz Namazi

Filing has closed for the March 17 special election to fill the vacancy in the 37th Senate District left when Mimi Walters was elected to Congress.  As expected, Assemblyman Don Wagner and former Supervisor/former Treasurer-Tax Collector John Moorlach filed for the seat. Unexpectedly, Naz Namazi pulled papers on the final day of filing and then filed for the seat as well.

A head-to-head Wagner vs. Moorlach race would have ended this election on St. Patrick’s Day.  If Namazi pulls enough votes to prevent either candidate from breaking 50%, that would force a Wagner-Moorlach run-off on May 19.

Ballot Designations

Wagner is using “Business Owner/Assemblyman” as his ballot designation.  Moorlach unsuccessfully sought “County Supervisor/Businessman” as his ballot designation, receiving “Orange County Supervisor” instead.  Oddly, Namazi does not have a ballot designation.  Ballot designations can be challenged in court through Monday, February 2 (a week from today).

I’ve never understood why a candidate would refuse to have a ballot designation.  It costs nothing and is the one thing every voter sees because it’s right under the candidate’s name under the ballot.  It’s literally the last thing a candidate gets to say to every voter (and for a scary number of voters, it’s also the first thing).

Ballot Statements (or Lack Thereof)

Wagner and Moorlach both got statements for the sample ballot while Namazi did not.

There are only two scenarios why a candidate wouldn’t have a ballot statement for the State Legislature: 1) the candidate can’t afford it or 2) the candidate plans to spend more than the voluntary expenditure limit.  (For example, in November 2014, Young Kim, Sharon Quirk-Silva, Janet Nguyen, and Jose Solorio did not get statements because they all planned to spend more than the voluntary expenditure limit.)

The voluntary expenditure limit for this election is $846,000, and I think it’s pretty reasonable to assume that Namazi isn’t going to spend more than $846,000.  That leaves only the logical conclusion that Namazi couldn’t plunk down the $5,376 for a ballot statement.

If a candidate can’t afford to even get the ballot statement, how is the candidate supposed to get their message out? The ballot statement is the opportunity for every candidate to get a 1/4 page message mailed out to every registered voter in the district, as it is included in the sample ballot.  Any mailer districtwide would cost more than the ballot statement.  Even the costs of ink and paper from printing literature on a home computer to hand deliver to every voter in the district would cost more than a ballot statement.

In a general election, it’s possible to win an obscure down-ticket race without a ballot statement because voters are exhausted from reading many seats’ ballot statements or voters aren’t paying attention to the down-ticket races. However, this is the only thing on the ballot; there is no down-ticket.  Anyone turning out for this election is turning out solely for the Senate race.  Plus, it’s a special election, and special election voters are far more likely to read the sample ballot than general election voters.

Who is Namazi?

Namazi was a paid staffer on Congressman Dana Rohrabacher’s re-election campaigns in 2012 and 2014.  She also purportedly joined Rohrabacher’s Congressional staff earlier this month.  She has been a licensed real estate salesperson for 1 year, 8 months (since May 2013).

As I live blogged two years ago at the January 2013 OCGOP Central Committee meeting, Namazi received the Anna Woods Memorial HQ Volunteer of the Year Award for her efforts in the 2012 election at the OCGOP headquarters in Tustin and the OCGOP office in Huntington Beach.  (Ironically, as the highest-ranking elected official present at that meeting, Wagner helped present all of the volunteer awards, including the one to Namazi.)

Born in Pakistan, the 47-year-old Namazi had been registered to vote at her Laguna Niguel residence for 20 years but recently reregistered to vote in Irvine in the two-bedroom residence of 64-year-old Julie Tanha.  Property records do not show that Namazi has given up her residence in Laguna Niguel nor acquired Tanha’s residence in Irvine. Laguna Niguel is in the 36th Senate District while Irvine is in the 37th.

Born in Pennsylvania, the 54-year-old Wagner has been registered to vote at his Irvine residence for 23 years. Wagner has been a licensed attorney since 1987, an Assemblyman since 2010, and was a community college district trustee from 1998-2010.

Born in the Netherlands, the 59-year-old Moorlach has been registered to vote at his Costa Mesa residence for 12 years. Moorlach’s CPA license was issued in 1980 but is currently inactive; he was a County Supervisor from 2007-2015 and the County Treasurer-Tax Collector from 1995-2007.

Decoy Candidate?

Ordinarily, a candidate who pulls papers on the last day of filing, recently reregistered from a longtime out-of-district residence to an in-district residence, has no ballot designation, and has no ballot statement would have all the red flags of being a decoy candidate.

However, there is one big gaping hole in the decoy theory: who actually benefits from Namazi’s candidacy?  Unless she starts hitting either Wagner or Moorlach, there is no obvious beneficiary of her candidacy.  There is no reason to see how she would draw from more from one candidate or the other: her name isn’t similar to either Wagner or Moorlach, she doesn’t have a similar ballot designation to either Wagner or Moorlach, she’s a woman while the other two are men (indeed, her name doesn’t even make her gender obvious), she has an Iranian name while Wagner and Moorlach have European names, etc.  Now, if Namazi starts campaigning heavily against one of the two major candidates, then the decoy theory is worth another look.

Who Will Campaign to Democrats?

It had long been thought that Wagner and Moorlach would try to outflank each other on the right to win the safely Republican SD-37, but with the Democrats failing to field a candidate (and indeed, no non-Republican candidate filing at all), which one will attempt to win over Democrats?  Or will both attempt it?  It will be a delicate balancing act trying to hang on to Republicans and grabbing Democrats.  28.6% of SD-37 voters are Democrats.  It’s a huge voting bloc.  If one candidate goes for the Democrats but the other does not, the Democrats could well determine the result of the election.  (Leslie Daigle missed her chance; this race was tailor-made for her!)  However, it’s still a staunchly Republican district; tilting too far left could cost too many votes on the right.

The riskiest strategy would be sending a hit piece to Democrats accusing the opponent of being too conservative, as the target of that hit piece would presumably quickly send a piece to Republicans: “Look!  My opponent says I’m more conservative than he is!”

Of course, there is the ever safe strategy of non-substantive messaging, along the lines of “Democrats Trust John Moorlach” or “Democrats Support Don Wagner” without any political stances included whatsoever.

Full Text of Ballot Statements

Wagner’s ballot statement is below:

As an Assemblyman since 2010, I’ve been a proven, principled conservative voice in Sacramento. That’s why I’m endorsed for State Senate by our conservative Congressman Ed Royce and Congresswoman Mimi Walters.

As Senator, I’ll strongly support a balanced budget, with no new taxes. I’ve fought to eliminate the $500 billion “wall of debt” that liberal politicians have created and plan to leave to our children. I signed the “Taxpayer Protection Pledge” to never vote to raise your taxes and am endorsed by the OCTaxpayers Association.

My fiscal credentials aren’t just talk. I have real experience balancing government budgets – as President of a local Community College District I balanced every budget and paid off all debts, without raising taxes. It can be done.

I oppose amnesty for illegal immigrants. I’ve been a leader in demanding that Washington secure our border and compensate California taxpayers for the enormous costs of illegal immigration. I’m on record strongly opposing President Obama’s actions to grant amnesty.

As a small business owner myself, I experienced how overregulation and over-taxation stifle business success and economic growth. That’s why I’ve worked to get government off the backs of business owners. And that’s why I’ve been endorsed by the California Small Business Association and the National Federation of Independent Businesses.

I’ve been leading the fight for conservative values in Sacramento, not just talking about them from afar. I pledge to use my experience and proven conservative record to keep up that fight for responsive, responsible, limited government.

Moorlach’s ballot statement is below:

I will fight to end unnecessary government spending and reduce debts. I oppose raising tax rates and I believe government must be lean, efficient, and live within its means.

I began my career as a CPA and Certified Financial Planner. I believe government spending requires sound planning and must stand firm against pressures from special interests.

California has an unrestricted net deficit of $124 billion and is 46th out of 50 states in financial status! Billions in underfunded public employee pensions is one of our biggest threats. As a County Supervisor, I passed a ballot measure requiring voter approval on any new public employee pension enhancement.

We also renegotiated the county employee retiree medical plan, reducing the unfunded liability by 71% and saving Orange County taxpayers nearly $100 million a year.

In 1994, I was a partner in a local accounting firm. When Orange County declared bankruptcy that December, I was brought in to help clean up the mess. We immediately cut costs, eliminated risky investments, and put the County back on a fiscally conservative path.

In 2006, I was elected to serve as County Supervisor, where I helped to prudently guide spending through the Great Recession, thus improving the business climate. During my tenure, the County’s unrestricted net assets grew from a deficit to in excess of $300 million. Today Orange County is fiscally sound, and our economy is strong.

California needs a fiscally conservative accountant in Sacramento. I would be honored to continue serving you. http://www.MoorlachforSenate.com

As mentioned earlier, Namazi did not get a ballot statement.

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