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AD-74 Watch: Karina Onofre Announces That She Is Running

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on November 26, 2013

74Yesterday, former Santa Ana City Council candidate Karina Onofre announced that she is running for the 74th Assembly District which is currently held by Allan Mansoor. Mansoor announced last week that he will not be seeking a third term, instead opting to battle Michelle Steel for the 2nd Supervisorial District, held by the termed out John Moorlach. This announcement by Onofre caught me completely off guard as I had not even heard any rumors about this.  When I told Chris Nguyen about this, his reaction was, “WHAT?!?!?!”  (On a related note, does anyone know how to replace a burst iPhone speaker?)

Running a race in AD-74 also presents totally different demographics and challenges than running a race for Santa Ana City Council. AD-74 consists of Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, and Newport Beach.  In Santa Ana, Republicans are at a distinct disadvantage in voter registration, thus making it less likely to draw a crowd of Republicans who will fight for a seat. Two Republicans who have been able to overpower the Democratic stranglehold on elected offices are Orange County Board of Education Trustee Robert Hammond and Santa Ana Unified School District Trustee Cecilia Iglesias. (In the interest of full disclosure, Custom Campaigns served as the sole campaign consultants to both of these candidates.  Custom Campaigns is also the firm that owns OC Political.)

In AD-74, Republicans have a 12.6% registration advantage, which will lead to a rather bloody primary fight if last election is any indicator. In the 2012 Primary Election, Leslie Daigle (and the PACs supporting her) spent gobs of cash to fight incumbent Allan Mansoor by bloodying him up with lots of negative mail and negative television ads. Mansoor not only made it to the run-off in November, but he easily came in first place, and Daigle finished a distant third place:

MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 74th District                                   
Completed Precincts: 392 of 392
                 Vote Count                 Percentage                
ALLAN R. MANSOOR 33,319 43.5%
ROBERT RUSH 25,120 32.8%
LESLIE DAIGLE 18,207 23.8%

These results would not be surprising if it weren’t for the fact that Charles Munger Jr. spent almost $500,000 on Daigle’s behalf to try to get her to the November run-off. Even Bob Rush, who was a Dem sacrificial lamb in this race, spent almost $100,000. These numbers are stunning in that this much was spent trying to beat an incumbent and not for an open seat. Generally, candidates will spend more money trying to win an open seat as opposed to trying to unseat an incumbent (since incumbency is so tough to overcome).

While we are still looking at 2012, Onofre had a rough time against Roman Reyna last election in the Santa Ana City Council Ward 5 race:

CITY OF SANTA ANA Member, City Council, Ward 5                                   
Completed Precincts: 108 of 108
                 Vote Count                 Percentage                
ROMAN A. REYNA 32,419 61.8%
KARINA ONOFRE 20,065 38.2%

I’m going to be very honest: Onofre only raised $3,250 in her race for Santa Ana City Council, and this was for an open seat! AD-74 already has a field of strong candidates with the ability to raise money. Onofre has no name identification in AD-74, has no fundraising base, and will face allegations of being a carpetbagger.

Huntington Beach Councilman Matt Harper, AD-72 staffer Emanuel Patrascu, and former CRP Treasurer Keith Carlson have already expressed an interest in this race. Harper is the early front-runner in this race since Huntington Beach is the second-most populated city in AD-74 (Irvine is the most populated, but no current candidate is based out of Irvine). Patrascu is not very well-known in AD-74 and hails from Laguna Beach (only about 6% of the population in AD-74), but he does work for Travis Allen and might get some decent help from his boss, who would want to get an ally elected to the Assembly. Carlson will likely have a ton of establishment support and will be able to raise quite a bit of money through his connections as former CRP Treasurer.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the real wildcard here is Orange County Supervisor John Moorlach. He is set to announce his candidacy for the 45th Congressional District at some point very soon. If for whatever reason, Moorlach decides that CD-45 is not the right fit (I actually think that he can win), he could easily destroy anyone in the field in AD-74 (assuming he doesn’t just clear the field outright) and walk into the Assembly.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments »

2012 General Election Predictions: 74th Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 20, 2012

This race will be a lot more mild after the fight that we saw in June between Allan Mansoor and Leslie Daigle. Now we have a partisan fight between Allan Mansoor (R) and Robert Rush (D). The 74th Assembly District is a conservative South County seat:

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

As you can see Republicans have a registration of 42.7%, Democrats 29.3%, and DTS 23.2% (remember DTS voters will lean conservative in this district). With that being said we almost $300,000 pumped into this race in expenditures on behalf of Leslie Daigle. These expenditures helped her jump all the way to last place.

The results from June can be viewed here:

Member of the State Assembly; District 74

  • Allan R. Mansoor, Republican ………. 33,319 votes 43.5%
  • Robert Rush, Democratic ………. 25,120 votes 32.8%
  • Leslie Daigle, Republican ………. 18,207 votes 23.8%

Mansoor fell under 50%, however, the reason for this is likely the hit pieces that the Daigle campaign did against him. My gut feeling is that the majority of people who voted for Daigle will vote for Mansoor in November. The reason for this assertion is because partisan Republicans were split between Daigle and Mansoor. These Republicans will only have one candidate to vote for from their party in November.

Financially Robert Rush is in the same ballpark as Mansoor. Rush may have over $55,000 after the primary and Mansoor has just over $50,000/ Rush is going to need a lot more money to make up the deficit he is already facing after June.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

 

Allan Mansoor

 

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , | 1 Comment »

AD-69: Anaheim Saved Republican Moreno, Pushed Democrat Perez into Third, Averting Dem vs. Dem Slugfest in November

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 28, 2012

Last week, I blogged two city-by-city breakdowns of the results in two Assembly races.

First up was AD-72, which showed Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) and Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) the top two in four cities, OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley) and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove) the top two in two cities, and Pham and Edgar the top two in Garden Grove.

Next up was AD-74, which showed Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R-Costa Mesa) and Businessman Robert Rush (D-Newport Beach) alternating as first and second place in each city in the district, with the sole exception being Newport Beach, where Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R-Newport Beach) slipped in ahead of Rush but behind Mansoor.

Up today is the final OC Assembly race that featured more than two candidates: AD-69.  First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:

Orange County Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly (D) 10,939 39.2%
Eligibility Technician Jose “Joe” Moreno (R) 5,980 21.4%
Union Leader Julio Perez (D) 5,738 20.6%
Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D) 4,651 16.7%
Businessman Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D) 605 2.2%

So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the four cities of AD-69: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Garden Grove, and Orange.

(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics.  Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-69.  The bulk of Santa Ana and a sliver of Garden Grove are in AD-69 while a sliver of Santa Ana and the bulk of Garden Grove are in AD-72.  A sliver of Orange is in AD-69 but the bulk of it is in AD-68.  Anaheim is divided into nearly even thirds, with the western 1/3 in AD-65, the central 1/3 in AD-69, and the eastern 1/3 in AD-68.)

Daly was consistently first in each city while Barragan was consistently fifth.  Moreno, Perez, and Martinez swapped around for the second, third, and fourth place positions.  The humongous Daly head is indicative of his first place finish in all four cities; taking his head out of the individual cities allows us to more closely examine second and third place, which actually differed in the four cities.  In each individual city, the candidate with the larger head came in second while the candidate with the smaller head came in third:

  • Moreno came in second with Perez third in Anaheim and Garden Grove.
  • Perez came in second with Martinez third in Santa Ana.
  • Moreno came in second with Martinez third in Orange.

Here’s their vote totals broken down visually by city:

Since Daly came in first by such a large margin (indeed, Daly’s Santa Ana total nearly bested everyone else’s districtwide total) and Barragan fell to fifth by such a large margin (Daly’s Garden Grove total outpaced Barragan’s districtwide total), let’s take a closer look with just Moreno, Perez, and Martinez, who were closer together in the results:

It’s clear that without Anaheim, Perez would have made it into the top two and on to November, rather than Moreno.  Moreno’s final vote total was 5,980 while Perez’s was 5,738.  Without Anaheim, Moreno would have had 4,105 while Perez would have had 4,308. (Anaheim gave Moreno 1,875 votes and Perez 1,430 votes, a 445-vote margin).  Perez lost districtwide to Moreno by 242 votes; without Anaheim, Moreno would have lost to Perez by 203 votes.

Anaheim was a crucial stronghold for Moreno, as he came in fourth in Santa Ana but second in Anaheim.

However, with so few cities in AD-69, and Santa Ana such a strong majority of that district (59% of registered voters in AD-69 live in Santa Ana, and 60% of ballots cast in AD-69 were from Santa Ana), it would be more useful to break this result down into regions smaller than cities.  Luckily for this purpose, the City of Santa Ana has Council wards.

Here, the larger head came in first while the smaller head came in second:

  • Daly came in first with Moreno second in Wards 3 and 6.
  • Perez came in first with Daly second in Wards 1 and 4.
  • Perez came in first with Martinez second in Wards 2 and 5 (Martinez represents Ward 2 on the Santa Ana City Council, by the way).

Despite the fact that Perez won four wards and Daly only won two, Daly actually won Santa Ana by a 10% margin.  How?  Well, 48% of registered voters in Santa Ana live in the two wards that Daly won: Wards 3 and 6.  49% of Santa Anans who voted in the AD-69 race live in Wards 3 and 6, so those two wards did not have disproportionate voter turnout – they just have a disproportionate share of the voters to begin with.  A picture is worth a thousand words, so…

The overwhelming majority of Daly and Moreno’s votes in Santa Ana came from Wards 3 and 6, with 59% of Daly’s Santa Ana votes and 66% of Moreno’s Santa Ana votes coming from those two wards.  By contrast, 29% of Perez’s Santa Ana votes and 38% of Martinez’s Santa Ana votes came from those two wards.  Here’s each candidate’s vote totals broken down visually by ward:

Once again, due to Daly’s landslide first-place finish and Barragan’s distant fifth-place finish, let’s take a closer look with just Moreno, Perez, and Martinez, who were closer together in the results:

Perez’s vote totals were fairly evenly spread out across the wards, Martinez got a bump from Ward 3, but Moreno’s performance was very strong in Wards 3 and 6 and disastrous in Wards 2, 4, and 5.

Had Perez done a stronger push in Anaheim or a three-prong strategy in Anaheim, Santa Ana’s Ward 3, and Santa Ana’s Ward 6, there’d be a Democrat vs. Democrat intraparty battle in AD-69 in November between business-backed Tom Daly and union-backed Julio Perez.

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

AD-74’s Surprise Split: Mansoor Wins Three Cities, Rush Wins Other Three Cities, Daigle Second in Hometown But Third in All Other Cities

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 22, 2012

Apologies for the blogcation this week.  We forgot to tell readers we would be taking time off for Day of the Independent Hungary on June 19 and Argentinian Flag Day on June 20.  We were going to celebrate Canadian National Aboriginal Day and Prince William’s 30th birthday on June 21, but then Thomas Gordon blogged about Barack Obama’s assertion of executive privilege à la Richard Nixon.  Now back to the show…

On Monday, I blogged the city-by-city breakdown in AD-72, which showed Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) and Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) the top two in four cities, OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley) and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove) the top two in two cities, and Pham and Edgar the top two in Garden Grove.

Today, we look at the surprise result in AD-74.

First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:

California State Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R) 33,319 43.5%
Newport Beach Businessman Robert Rush (D) 25,120 32.8%
Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R) 18,207 23.8%

So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the six cities of AD-74: Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Costa Mesa, Laguna Woods, and Laguna Beach.

74th Assembly District results in each city

(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics.  Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-74.  Huntington Beach is divided nearly 50/50 between AD-72 and AD-74 while 2/3 of Irvine is in AD-74, with 1/3 of Irvine in AD-68.)

In each city, the candidate with the larger head came in first while the candidate with the smaller head came in second:

  • Rush came in first with Mansoor second in Irvine, Laguna Woods, and Laguna Beach.
  • Mansoor came in first with Rush second in Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa.
  • Mansoor came in first with Daigle second in Newport Beach.

These results were consistent in all six cities across both absentee and poll voters.

Here’s the percentage breakdown by city, with the winner’s percentage in bold and the runner-up in italics:

Mansoor Rush Daigle
Costa Mesa 49.7% 32.1% 18.1%
Huntington Beach 46.2% 29.8% 24.0%
Irvine 37.8% 39.1% 23.1%
Laguna Beach 32.0% 46.6% 21.4%
Laguna Woods 33.8% 45.4% 20.7%
Newport Beach 48.2% 22.1% 29.7%

Now here’s that list of cities by number of voters in AD-74:

  • Newport Beach: Mansoor
  • Huntington Beach: Mansoor
  • Irvine: Rush
  • Costa Mesa: Mansoor
  • Laguna Woods: Rush
  • Laguna Beach: Rush

For our visual learners:

The results show that despite enormous spending on behalf of Daigle by Berkshire Hathaway Heir and Santa Clara County Republican Party Chairman Charles Munger, Jr. (as we blogged about here, here, and here), which eventually totaled well over half a million dollars ($579,040 to be exact), plus another $89,687 in independent expenditures from labor unions, the power of incumbency and grassroots activists enabled Mansoor to overcome the hundreds of thousands of dollars in Bay Area/labor union money spent on behalf of Daigle.  Similarly, the power of party label enabled Rush to overcome the hundreds of thousands of dollars in Bay Area/labor union money spent on behalf of Daigle (much like the power of party label enabled Republican Jose “Joe” Moreno [not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno] to overcome the $246,761 in labor union money spent on behalf of Democrat Julio Perez).

And here’s a quick video courtesy of OC Political Reader and Lake Forest City Council Candidate Dwight Robinson that boils the AD-74 result into a nutshell:

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

AD-74 Initial Reaction: Mansoor Dominates Daigle; Munger Jumped in Too Late for Daigle

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 5, 2012

Allan Mansoor, Leslie Daigle, Robert Rush

Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R-Costa Mesa), Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R-Newport Beach), and Businessman Robert Rush (D-Newport Beach)

With a 20% lead for Assemblyman Allan Mansoor over Councilwoman Leslie Daigle in the absentee votes, this will likely prove insurmountable for Daigle to overcome in late absentees and poll votes.  Charles Munger’s largesse was simply too late in the game to save Daigle to overcome Mansoor’s massive absentee lead.

Latest numbers
Mansoor: 42.8%
Rush: 34.4%
Daigle: 22.9%

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Bay Area’s Munger Spending on Behalf of Daigle in OC’s AD-74 Rises to Over $470,000

Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 23, 2012

Leslie Daigle, Charles Munger, Beth Gaines

Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, Santa Clara County Republican Party Chairman Charles Munger, Jr., and Assemblywoman Beth Gaines

We reported previously here and here about the vast sums of money that Santa Clara County Republican Party Chairman Charles Munger, Jr.’s Spirit of Democracy California PAC has spent on behalf of Newport Beach City Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, who is running against Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and businessman Bob Rush for the 74th Assembly District.  (Daigle and Mansoor are both registered Republicans, though it is widely known that Mansoor is the candidate of the conservatives, libertarians, Tea Party, etc. while Daigle is the candidate of the moderate and liberal-leaning factions.  Rush became a registered Democrat in February.)

The Spirit of Democracy California PAC formed by Munger, the son and namesake of Warren Buffett’s business partner, has now spent nearly half a million dollars on Daigle’s behalf in the last two weeks.  Specifically, it’s $470,671, which is broken down this way:

  • May 21: $145,000 for TV Commercials
  • May 21: $21,306 for Mailers
  • May 21: $20,190 for Mailers
  • May 21: $15,619 for Slate Mailers
  • May 15: $20,973 for Mailers
  • May 14: $180,000 for TV Commercials
  • May 14: $20,973 for Mailers
  • May 14: $7,500 for Consulting
  • May 14: $7,500 for Consulting
  • May 14: $25,111 for Mailers
  • May 14: $6,499 for Mailers

(Note that the $150,000 previously reported by Munger’s PAC was amended to $180,000 in a subsequent campaign finance report.)

This totals:

  • $325,000 for TV Commericals
  • $115,052 for Mailers
  • $15,619 for Slate Mailers
  • $15,000 for Consulting

The only other beneficiary of the largesse of the Spirit of Democracy California PAC is Assemblywoman Beth Gaines (R-Roseville), who has received $175,334 in independent expenditures from the PAC.

Munger has contributed $726,826 to the PAC.  Besides Munger, the only other contributor to the PAC is the California Dental Association, which has dropped $150,000.  That’s a total of $876,826 in the PAC.  They’ve spent a combined $646,005 for Daigle and Gaines, leaving $230,821 available for future spending.  Of course, Munger also has the deep pockets to drop far more into the PAC at a day’s notice.  After all, he and his sister, Molly Munger, have spent millions of dollars on California ballot measures.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Council Colleague Rush Hill Endorses Leslie Daigle in AD74 Race

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 18, 2012

As a Republican, I am glad to see a Democrat in the AD 74 race for the same reason that I was hoping for no Republican to run in the AD 69 race. This is a post Prop 14 world and we need to realize the way that the game works now.

I have predicted that Robert Rush will defeat Leslie Daigle for the number 2 slot in the AD 74 June election (Read more about this race here).

Leslie Daigle has apparently realized this as well. She issued a press release that could best be described as a shot across the bow to the Robert Rush campaign. See the press release here: Read the rest of this entry »

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2012 Primary Election Predictions: 74th Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 18, 2012

This race will also be an interesting one, but I will go out on a limb and say that it will be less interesting than people think.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat would normally be considered another Republican stronghold with a 13 point registration advantage but based on the results of the 2008 election I will hold off judgement until after 2012. Democrats have just a 6 point registration gap above DTS voters. In 2008 Democrats did have som major victories in the new AD 74 where Obama won and Proposition 8 failed.

Incumbent Assemblyman Allan Mansoor currently holds this seat and his running for his first re-election. He is backed by the current Republican establishment along with most of the grassroots and volunteer organization. I have met Chad Morgan who is running his race and he is a nice guy.

His challengers include:

Leslie Daigle a Council Member/Businesswoman from Newport Beach who is running as a Republican. My interactions with her have never been pleasant.

Robert Rush a Business Owner/Accountant who is running as a Democrat.

The factors at play- Alan Mansoor has incumbency, name ID, and party affiliation on his side. I don’t buy the argument that his name ID is low in the new parts of the district thus making him vulnerable.

The anti-incumbency vote will be split between Rush and Daigle but Rush has the advantage of being an alternative to a Republican for Democrats and DTS voters.

Daigle has high name ID on Newport Beach, but I just think that most of the obstacles in this race seem to hurt her more than Mansoor or Rush. It appears that Daigle is not trilled with Rush being in this race, stay tuned for a press release from her that I will post in a bit.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Allan Mansoor & Robert Rush

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , | 1 Comment »

AD-74: Mansoor Roars on Fundraising, Rush Loans Campaign $100K, Daigle Only Adds $17K

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 26, 2012

Allan Mansoor, Leslie Daigle, Robert Rush

Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R-Costa Mesa), Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R-Newport Beach), and Businessman Robert Rush (D-Newport Beach)

Long accused of being a poor fundraiser, Republican Assemblyman Allan Mansoor‘s campaign finance reports show the donors are beginning to rally around Mansoor.

During the January 1-March 17 fundraising period, Mansoor raised $61,135 in contributions and dropped another $30,000 into his campaign warchest, growing it by $91,135.  During the same period, Republican Newport Beach City Councilwoman Leslie Daigle raised $17,577 in contributions.

Surprisingly, Democrat Robert Rush loaned his campaign $99,999.  He received three contributions during this time, all of which were at the maximum legal limit of $3,900.  The three were from The Bascom Group in Irvine and two of the principals from that same business.

Mansoor spent $32,477, Daigle spent $29,324, and Rush spent $7,661.

Mansoor now has $115,371 cash on hand, Daigle has $107,956 cash on hand, and Rush has $104,038 cash on hand.  The money race is too close for Daigle; she needs to have a dominating cash lead to even have hope of making it to November.

There’s no way to quantify this, as it’s more art than science, but ultimately, Mansoor does not even need to outspend Daigle.  The “California Assemblyman” ballot designation is worth probably $200,000 in a primary.  Daigle will need to outspend Mansoor roughly 2-to-1 to unseat him, and I just don’t see that happening.  Similarly, Rush does not need to outspend Daigle.  The word “Democrat” after Rush’s name is worth probably $200,000 in the AD-74 primary.  Having the word “Republican” is worth probably $300,000 in AD-74, but that’s split between Mansoor and Daigle.  Therefore, being a Republican California Assemblyman on the ballot is worth $350,000 for Mansoor, being identified on the ballot as a Republican is worth $150,000 for Daigle, and being identified on the ballot as a Democrat is worth $200,000 for Rush.  Furthermore, Mansoor has no problem on his right flank, and Rush has no problem on his left flank, so they can both come after Daigle’s voters in the center.

Daigle will need to spend a fortune to form a coalition of anti-incumbent Republicans, Democrats willing to vote for a Republican, and independents who are both anti-incumbent and anti-Democrat.  There’s a certain bloc of voters who will automatically vote for Mansoor because he has “California Assemblyman” as his ballot designation, and there’s a certain bloc of voters who will automatically vote for Rush because he has “Democrat” as his party affiliation, but Daigle has no natural bloc of automatic voters.  She will have to outspend both Mansoor and Rush to pull together enough votes to reach second place to get to November.

42% of AD-74 voters are registered Republicans, 29% are registered Democrats, 24% are registered as No Party Preference, and 5% are registed as members of third parties.  If Daigle grabs 30% of Republicans from Mansoor and 25% of Democrats from Rush (remember, she does have the word “Republican” after her name on the ballot even if she is to the left of Mansoor), that gives her 20% of the vote, Mansoor 29% of the vote, and Rush 22% of the vote.  That leaves the 29% of the vote from independent and minor party voters.  Say she gets 36% of those people and Mansoor and Rush each get 32%.  That brings Daigle up to 30%, Mansoor to 37%, and Rush 31%.  She would still fail to make it to November.

However, her problem is compounded because independent voters, moderate Republicans, and moderate Democrats are less likely to vote in primaries, so you get the hard core partisans in primaries.  That means loyal Mansoor Republicans and loyal Rush Democrats will be disproportionately high.   This is why to advance to November, Daigle must substantially outspend both Mansoor and Rush, who will only need to spend enough money to reinforce their bases.  I suspect Mansoor captures half the vote, Rush will end up in the high 20s, and Daigle in the low 20s.

Barring a six-figure infusion of cash over the next two months (along with a complete failure of her opponents to fundraise), Daigle is caught between a Rush rock and a Mansoor hard place.

Posted in 74th Assembly District, Fundraising | Tagged: , , | 3 Comments »

OC Republicans Shoot Selves in Foot; OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario Evaporates

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 16, 2012

In a pre-Prop 14 world, it made absolute good sense to contest every single partisan race.  Each qualified party was guaranteed exactly one candidate on the November ballot.

Prop 14 changed all that.  The top two candidates, regardless of party and regardless of whether anyone breaks 50%, advance to the November ballot.  If the top two candidates were members of the same party, presumably the more moderate candidate would win.  If there were two Democrats, the less liberal one would win thanks to Republican voters.  If there were two Republicans, the less conservative one would win thanks to Democratic voters.  Furthermore, the party with two candidates facing off in November would then spend a fortune in an intraparty battle, freeing the excluded party to spend its human and financial resources elsewhere.

In Orange County:

  • Republicans feared a November bloodbath in AD-74 between Allan Mansoor and Leslie Daigle, in which the less conservative candidate would win.  In AD-74, Republicans comprise 42.5% of registered voters, Democrats 29.0%, and no party preference voters 23.7%.
  • Democrats feard a November bloodbath in AD-69 between Tom Daly, Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, and Paco Barragan, in which the least liberal candidate would win.  In AD-69, Democrats comprise 49.7% of registered voters, Republicans 27.5%, and no party preference voters 19.1%.

Conventional wisdom held:

  • If no Democrat filed in AD-74, Democratic voters would back Republican Leslie Daigle over Republican Allan Mansoor in both June and November, as Daigle is less conservative than Mansoor.  Republicans would squander valuable human and financial resources in an intraparty battle for AD-74, freeing Democrats to spend their resources elsewhere.  However, if a Democrat were in the AD-74 race, presumably that person would be in the top two to face off against the winner of the Mansoor-Daigle fight.
  • If no Republican filed in AD-69, Republican voters would back Democrat Tom Daly over the other three Democrats (Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, and Paco Barragan) in June, as Daly is the least liberal of the four; the Republican voters would continue to back Daly over whichever Democrat he faced in November, as Daly would still be the less liberal candidate.  Democrats would squander valuable human and financial resources in an intraparty battle for AD-69, freeing Republicans to spend their resources elsewhere.  However, if a Republican were in the AD-69 race, presumably that person would be in the top two to face off against the winner of the Daly-Martinez-Perez-Barragan fight.

For about half a week, many in OC, including yours truly, thought the Democrats’ worst nightmare had materialized: a Democrat in AD-74 and no Republican in AD-69, as Robert Rush joined the Democratic Party and entered the AD-74 race while Republican Robert Hammond withdrew from AD-69 to join the Orange County Board of Education race.

Well both party’s fears came to naught and we revert to status quo in November with likely one Democrat versus one Republican.  As my intrepid fellow blog editor Chris Emami wrote, an obscure gentleman by the name of Jose Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose Moreno) filed as the sole Republican in AD-69 with barely two minutes to spare.

Robert Rush (D-74) and Jose Moreno (R-69) could spend the next three months in Siberia, and both will still be in the top two in their June races by virtue of having “Democrat” and “Republican” after their names, respectively, allowing them to advance to November, where they will be summarily destroyed by their opponent.

(In case you’re wondering, Rush has a ballot designation of “Business Owner/Accountant” and will be second on the ballot after Daigle but before Mansoor while Moreno has a ballot designation of “Orange County Eligibility Technician” and will be third on the ballot after Daly and Martinez but before Barragan and Perez.  Many voters will be left scratching their heads as to what an eligibility technician is, and if you’re one of them, here’s an explanation of what that is.)

Democrats won’t squander their resources on an intraparty AD-69 battle in November nor will Republicans squander their resources on an intraparty AD-74 battle in November.  Both parties will revert to the old rules of spending their resources against each other in November.

Former Senate Republican Leader Jim Brulte once said in reference to a San Francisco Mayoral race: “When you’re a conservative, and you’ve got a choice between a socialist and a communist, you back the socialist.”  Democrat Robert Rush has enabled the most conservative candidate to win in AD-74, and Republican Jose Moreno just enabled the most liberal candidate to win in AD-69.

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments »

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