OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Posts Tagged ‘Jerry Hayden’

Lincoln Club Makes Endorsements

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 14, 2012

This came across the wire from the Lincoln Club of Orange County:

Local Elections / Endorsements Ad Hoc Committee’s

SUMMARY OF CANDIDATE ENDORSEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS for Nov. 2012

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in Orange County | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

2012 General Election Prediction: 46th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 11, 2012

This race is the one that Republicans always get excited about with dreams of taking Loretta Sanchez out of office every 2 years. Loretta has never truly had a competitive race for this seat. Lets take a look at results since 1998:

1998- United States Representative; District 46

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 47,964 votes 56.5%
  • Robert Kenneth “Bob” Dornan, Republican ………. 33,388 votes 39.3%
  • Thomas E. Reimer, Libertarian ………. 2,316 votes 2.7%
  • Larry G. Engwall, Natural Law ………. 1,334 votes 1.5%

2000- United States Representative; District 46

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 70,381 votes 60.3%
  • Gloria Matta Tuchman, Republican ………. 40,928 votes 35%
  • Richard B. Boddie, Libertarian ………. 3,159 votes 2.7%
  • Larry Engwall, Natural Law ………. 2,440 votes 2%

2002- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 41,282 votes 60.9%
  • Jeff Chavez, Republican ………. 23,662 votes 34.9%
  • Paul Marsden, Libertarian ………. 2,871 votes 4.2%
  • Kenneth M. Valenzuela Fisher (Write-in)
  • Michael J. Monge (Write-in)

2004- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 65,684 votes 60.4%
  • Alexandria A. “Alex” Coronado, Republican ………. 43,099 votes 39.6%

2006- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 42,822 votes 61.8%
  • Tan Nguyen, Republican ………. 26,507 votes 38.2%

2008- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 85,706 votes 69.5%
  • Rosemarie Avila, Republican ………. 31,397 votes 25.5%
  • Robert Lauten, American Independent ………. 6,265 votes 5.0%

2010- United States Representative; District 47

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 50,832 votes 53.0%
  • Van Tran, Republican ………. 37,679 votes 39.3%
  • Cecilia Iglesias, Independent ………. 7,443 votes 7.7%

Van Tran is the one race where you could argue that he got Loretta under 60% and made her have to actually spend resources and run a real campaign. However, having another female Latina on the ballot on Ceci Iglesias likely pulled more votes from Sanchez than Tran.

Looking at the new 46th Congressional District it has become a bit more Republican with the addition of a portion of Orange. Here is the map of the district:

As always thank you to Meridian-Pacific for the use of their maps.

The Democrats currently have a 44%-32% registration advantage over Republicans, but the 19% of DTS voters lean-to the left in this district. Republicans did beat their registration by a substantial margin in the primary if you combine all of their votes:

United States Representative; District 46

  • Loretta Sanchez, Democratic ………. 25,706 votes 52.1%
  • Jerry Hayden, Republican ………. 14,571 votes 29.5%
  • John J. Cullum, Republican ………. 5,251 votes 10.6%
  • Jorge Rocha ………. 1,969 votes 4.0%
  • Pat Garcia, Republican ………. 1,852 votes 3.8%

Jerry Hayden did not have much competition in the primary, but he is in for what could be considered an uphill battle at best for the general election.

The fundraising in this race says it all. Loretta Sanchez despite being wiped out by Kindee Durkee has already rebuilt her campaign account having over $1,000,000 cash on hand after the primary. Jerry Hayden holds just over $12,000.

The name ID advantage also goes to Loretta Sanchez who is far better known in Santa Ana than Jerry Hayden is. This race is shaping up to be more of the same for Loretta.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Loretta Sanchez

Posted in 46th Congressional District | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

California’s Plausible Independent Candidates

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 4, 2012

Traditionally, after a California primary election, the top vote-getter from each party would advance to the general election, so you could have one Republican, one Democrat, one American Independent, one Libertarian, one Green, and one Peace and Freedom.  An independent (known as a Decline-to-State or DTS back then) could only get on the ballot by petition with the signatures of literally thousands of registered voters.  Well, Prop 14 changed all that.  Now, it’s just as easy for an independent (known as No Party Preference or NPP) to get on the ballot as a candidate affiliated with a party.  If the independent is one of the top two vote-getters, they advance to November’s quasi-runoff that pits the top two candidates against each other in the general election (even if somebody gets more than 50% of the vote in June, there’s still a November runoff required; indeed, even if there’s only one candidate in June, they still advance to a November runoff where there’s only one candidate on the ballot).

So here’s a look at the dozen most plausible independent candidates running in California in tomorrow’s election. (Yes, that’s right we’re less than 23 hours away from the polls opening in the primary!)

(Party registrations do not add up to 100% in the figures below because I have not listed third party registration.)

Former Assemblyman Anthony Adams, Supervisor Linda Parks, and College District Trustee Chad Walsh

California’s most viable independent candidates: Former Assemblyman Anthony Adams (CD-8), Supervisor Linda Parks (CD-26), and College District Trustee Chad Walsh (AD-28)

Could Be Elected

  • 8th Congressional District: Former Assemblyman Anthony Adams
    Former Republican Assemblyman Anthony Adams is running as an independent candidate.  In addition to Adams, there are two Democrats and ten Republicans running.  Among the Republicans are a State Assemblyman (Paul Cook), a County Supervisor (Brad Mitzelfelt), a Mayor (Ryan McEachron of Victorville), and a Councilwoman (Angela Valles of Victorville).  CD-8’s registered voters are: 41.8% Republicans, 32.5% Democrats, and 19.5% NPPs.  It’s entirely possible that the ten Republicans could split enough of the Republican vote to allow the NPP Adams to advance to November against a Democrat and presumably win in November due to the plurality Republicans’ preference for an independent over a Democrat.
  • 26th Congressional District: Supervisor Linda Parks
    In this open seat, the three leading candidates are State Senator Tony Strickland (R-Moorpark), State Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D-Santa Monica), and Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks (NPP-Thousand Oaks).  (98.3% of CD-26’s registered voters live in Ventura County.)  Strickland is the sole Republican, and Parks is the sole NPP, but Brownley is one of four Democrats in the race.  In CD-26, Democrats make up 40.2% of registered voters, Republicans 35.7%, and NPP 19.2%.  If the Democratic vote is divided enough among the four Democrats or Parks eats up enough slices of the major party votes, this could send Parks into November.  In November, she could win, as this is a swing seat.  In a Brownley-Parks race, a Republican-NPP coalition could put Supervisor Parks in Congress.  In a Strickland-Parks race, a Democratic-NPP coalition could put Supervisor Parks in Congress.
  • 28th Assembly District: College District Trustee Chad Walsh
    Assemblyman Paul Fong (D-Cupertino) faces exactly one challenger to his re-election bid: West Valley-Mission Community College District Trustee Chad Walsh (NPP-Los Gatos).  In AD-28, Democrats make up 43.0% of registered voters, Republicans are 26.3%, and NPPs are 27.1%.  If Trustee Walsh can cobble together a solid Republican-NPP coalition or peel off enough of the Democratic vote, Walsh could upset Fong’s re-election bid to become the first independent elected to the Assembly in over half-a-century (several major party legislators, like Juan Arambula and Nathan Fletcher, became independents during their tenures but none were elected as independents).  Unseating an incumbent is a tall order, but it’s at least plausible for Trustee Walsh to pull it off.

Will Likely Advance to November But Won’t Be Elected

  • 19th Congressional District: Jay Blas Jacob Cabrera
    Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose) has three opponents in her bid for re-election: Republican Robert Murray, Republican Phat Nguyen, and NPP Jay Blas Jacob Cabrera.  Democrats make up 47.3% of CD-19’s registered voters, Republicans 22.6%, and NPPs are 26.3%.  With the Republican vote split two ways and NPP voters already outnumbering Republicans, it’s likely that Cabrera advances to November, where he’ll be stomped by incumbent Lofgren.
  • 23rd Congressional District: Terry Phillips
    House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) has two opponents in his bid for re-election: fellow Republican Eric Parker and NPP Terry Phillips, a radio reporter from a local NPR affiliate.  In CD-23, Republicans are 46.9% of registered voters, Democrats are 29.7%, and NPPs are 18.4%.  If he captures the votes of enough Democrats and NPP voters unwilling to vote for a Republican, Phillips will advance to November but lose handily to McCarthy.
  • 29th Congressional District: David Hernandez
    In this open seat, City Councilman Tony Cardenas (D-Los Angeles) faces off against fellow Democrat Richard Valdez and NPP David Hernandez.  Democrats make up 54.6% of registered voters in CD-29, Republicans are 16.4%, and NPPs are 22.3%.  If Hernandez captures the votes of enough Republicans and NPP voters unwilling to vote for a Democrat (and Valdez doesn’t eat up too much of the Democratic vote), Hernandez will advance to November but be crushed by Cardenas.
  • 20th Assembly District: Mayor Mark Green
    There are five candidates for the open AD-20 seat: Republican Hayward Unified School District Board Member Luis Reynoso, NPP Union City Mayor Mark Green, Democratic Hayward Councilman Bill Quirk, Democrat Jennifer Ong, and Democrat Sarabjit Kaur Cheema.  In AD-20, Democrats are 54.2% of registered voters, Republicans are 17.1%, and NPPs are 22.4%.  If Mayor Green captures the independent vote and/or is able to peel off enough of the Democratic or Republican vote, he could slip in to November but be defeated in his face-off against Quirk.
  • 24th Assembly District: Joseph Antonelli Rosas
    Assemblyman Rich Gordon (D-Menlo Park) faces three opponents: Fellow Democrat Geby Espinosa, Republican Chengzhi “George” Yang, and NPP Joseph Antonelli Rosas.  In AD-24, Democrats make up 47.6% of registered voters, Republicans 21.8%, and NPPs 27.3%.  If independents flock to Rosas, he could advance to November to face off against Gordon.

Decent Shot at Advancing to November

  • 13th Congressional District: Marilyn M. Singleton
    Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) has two opponents in her bid for re-election: fellow Democrat Justin Jelincic and NPP Marilyn M. Singleton.  Democrats make up 63.9% of registered voters in CD-13, Republicans are 8.6%, and NPPs are 19.9%, so if Lee holds enough of her own party’s vote, she’ll face Singleton rather than Jelincic in November and win summarily in a landslide.
  • 42nd Congressional District: Curt Novak
    Congressman Ken Calvert (R-Corona) has five opponents in his bid for re-election: fellow Republican Eva Jones, fellow Republican Clayton Thibodeau, Democrat Cliff Smith, Democrat Michael Williamson, and NPP Curt Novak.   Republicans make up 45.2% of registered CD-42 voters, Democrats are 29.9%, and NPPs are 19.9%.  If the Democratic vote is split enough, Novak could end up getting more votes than any of the Democrats and advance to November to face off against Calvert.
  • 46th Congressional District: Jorge Rocha
    Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez (D-Santa Ana) has four opponents in her bid for re-election: Republican Jerry Hayden, Republican John Cullum, Republican Pat Garcia, and NPP Jorge Rocha.   Democrats make up 44.2% of registered CD-46 voters, Republicans are 31.2%, and NPPs are 20.5%.  If the Republican vote is split enough, or if he peels off enough of the Republican vote, Rocha could end up getting more votes than any of the Republicans and advance to November to face off against Sanchez.
  • 10th Assembly District: Joe Boswell
    Assemblyman Michael Allen (D-Santa Rosa) has six opponents: San Rafael Councilman Marc Levine (a fellow Democrat), fellow Democrat Alex Easton-Brown, fellow Democrat Christian Gunderson, fellow Democrat Connie Wong, Republican Peter Mancus, and NPP Joe Boswell.  In AD-10, Democrats make up 53.7% of registered voters, Republicans 19.7%, and NPPs 21.7%.  If Boswell manages to peel off some of the Republican or Democratic vote, Boswell could advance to November to be crushed by Allen.

Posted in California | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Hayden Endorsed By Campbell

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 19, 2012

This also came across the wire earlier this week from the Hayden for Congress Campaign. Tim Clark should consider proofing his stuff before it goes out as I doubt that Jay Stern is thrilled to have another Republican in the AD 46 race:

Congressman Campbell Joins Growing List of Hayden Supporters

(Santa Ana, CA)- Today, Congressman John Campbell announced his public endorsement of GOP conservative and 46th Assembly candidate Jerry Hayden. This support is coupled with that of several other locally elected officials including Assemblyman Don Wagner. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 46th Congressional District | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Atlas PAC May 2012 Newsletter & Voter Guide

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 18, 2012

This came over the wire from Atlas PAC on Wednesday (and was re-sent to us by a helpful reader yesterday)…

Atlas PAC Newsletter & Voter Guide   May 16, 2012 
In This Issue
Calendar of Events
Candidate Forum Photos
Stop the Special Interest Money Now Event
June Primary Voter Guide
Atlas PAC Director Featured on Rick Reiff’s Show

Calendar of Events

Stop the Special Interest Money Now Reception

May 23, 2012

Irvine, CA

Del Mar Day at the Races

July 28, 2012

San Diego, CA

The Atlas PAC Board
Lee M. Lowrey
ChairmanChandra Chell
Vice ChairmanDave BartelsJohn Draper

Mary DreyerKurt English
Kathryn FeatherJoe Ludlow

Jeff Mathews

Walter Myers III

Ben Pugh

Stephanie Olsen

Sarah Soss

Mike Tripp

Candidate ForumCandidate Forum 98aCandidate Forum 46aCandidate Forum 45a

Candidate Forum 30a

Candidate Forum 48a

Candidate Forum 103a

Candidate Forum 70a

Candidate Forum 94

Candidate Forum 68a

Like us on Facebook

 Dear,

With the June Primary Election just around the corner, Atlas PAC has updated our list of endorsed candidates for local, state and national elected office.  As always, we will continue to present to our membership candidates that practice our core values of limited government, free market, low taxation, and individual liberty.
Join us this month as we host a fundraising reception for the Stop the Special Interest Money Now Initiative featuring columnist Steve Greenhut and Chapman Law School Professor John Eastman.    Please mark your calendar for our upcoming events and we hope to see you soon.

Atlas PAC Mission Statement

The Atlas PAC mission is to create an environment of business professionals that believe in the ideals of limited government, free market enterprise, low taxation, and individual liberty to associate, network, and socialize with like-minded individuals. Through this association, the Atlas PAC supports like-minded candidates and issues through its monetary and political support.

StopSpecialInterest v4A

June Primary Voter Guide
National Ted Cruz – U.S. Senate, TXJeff Flake – U.S. Senate, AZ

George Allen – U.S. Senate, VA

Josh Mandell – U.S. Senate, OH

Richard Mourdock – U.S. Senate, IN

Jason Chaffetz – US Congress, UT

Eric Cantor – US Congress, VA

Paul Ryan – US Congress, WI

Allen West – US Congress, FL

Michele Bachmann – US Congress, MN

California

 

Tom McClintock – U.S. Congress District 4

Tony Strickland – U.S. Congress District 26

Ed Royce – U.S. Congress District 39

John Webb – US Congress District 45

Jerry Hayden – US Congress District 46

Gary DeLong – US Congress District 47

Dana Rohrabacher – US Congress District 48

Darrell Issa – US Congress District 49

Duncan Hunter, Jr. – US Congress District 50

Bill Emerson – State Senate District 23

Bob Huff – State Senate District 29

Jeff Miller – State Senate District 31

Mimi Walters – State Senate District 37

Tim Donnelly – State Assembly District 33

Mike Morrell – State Assembly District 40

Curt Hagman – State Assembly District 55

Eric Linder – State Assembly District 60

Joe Ludwig – State Assembly District 61

Chris Norby – State Assembly District 65

Craig Huey – State Assembly District 66

Phil Paule – State Assembly District 67

Don Wagner – State Assembly District 68

Diane Harkey – State Assembly District 73

Allan Mansoor – State Assembly District 74

Rocky Chavez – State Assembly District 76

Carl DeMaio – San Diego Mayor

Proposition 28 – No

Proposition 29 – No

Orange County   

Janet Nguyen – OC Supervisor, District 1

Robert Hammond– Orange County Board of Education, Area 1
Ken Williams– Orange County Board of Education, Area 3
Greg Sebourn – Fullerton City Council

Ethan Temianka – Mesa Water District

Orange County Republican Party Central Committee

55th AD – Tim Shaw, Jim Domen, Desare Ferraro

65th AD – Baron Night, Shawn Nelson, Greg Sebourn, Steve Hwangbo, Henry Charoen, Pat Shuff

68th AD – Jon Dumitru, Ken Williams, Lynn Schott, Walter Myers III, Mark Bucher, Denis Bilodeau

69th AD – Thomas Gordon, Charles Hart, Robert Hammond, Lupe Moreno, Cuong Sinh Cao

72nd AD – Janet Nguyen, Dean Grose, Matthew Harper, Mark McCurdy, Dennis Catron, John Briscoe

73rd AD – Chandra Chell, Mike Munzing, Mary Young, Tony Beall, Linda Barnes, Greg Woodard, Jon Fleischman

74th AD – Pick among the following:  John Draper, Jeff Mathews, Allan Bartlett, John Warner, Bill Dunlap, Scott Baugh, Scott Peotter, Rhonda Rohrabacher, Emily Sanford, Christina Shea, Don Hansen, T.J. Fuentes

Atlas PAC Director Featured on Rick Reiff’s SoCal Insider Show
Walter Myers III Participates in Occupy Vs. Tea Party Debate
walter - rick reiff show
Click to watch video
Atlas PAC Director Walter Myers III debates with an Occupy Los Angeles activist.  Watch as they discuss what their protest movements represent as well as their respective sides’ take on taxes, government, and capitalism.  Decide for yourself who the clear winner is for this debate.
About Atlas PAC

Atlas is a politically based membership organization made up of business, political, and community professionals who share a passion for free enterprise, limited government, reduced government regulatory burdens, low taxation, and individual liberty. Atlas furthers its ideals by funding candidates and causes who aggressively advocate the values of Atlas.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Fullerton, Mesa Consolidated Water District, Orange County Board of Education, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

CA CD 46: Assemblyman Don Wagner Announces Endorsement for GOP’s Jerry Hayden

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 6, 2012

This came over the wire from Jerry Hayden’s campaign (seeking to unseat Loretta Sanchez) on Friday…

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Friday, May 4, 2012

Contact: Alex Avetoom

CA CD 46: Assemblyman Don Wagner Announces Endorsement for GOP’s Jerry Hayden

(Santa Ana, CA)- Today, popular Orange County Assemblyman Don Wagner announced his support for Republican Jerry Hayden in the 46th Congressional District. Hayden is the Republican endorsed candidate collecting broad based support to remove liberal Democrat Loretta Sanchez. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 46th Congressional District | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Influential Family Action PAC Endorses Orange County Financial Expert Jerry Hayden’s Campaign for Congressional District 46

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 28, 2012

This just came across the wire from the Hayden for Congress campaign:

Influential Family Action PAC Endorses

Orange County Financial Expert Jerry Hayden’s Campaign for Congressional District 46

(Santa Ana,CA) – Today, the Hayden for Congress campaign announced the endorsement of Family Action PAC. This endorsements adds a formidable presence to the already momentous campaign finance team, and brings a wealth of relationships with Orange County’s donor base. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 46th Congressional District | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

46th GOP Congressional Candidate Jerry Hayden Signs the Spending Limit and Balanced Budget Pledge

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 21, 2012

This just came across the wire from the Hayden for Congress campaign:

46thGOP Congressional Candidate Jerry Hayden Signs the Spending Limit and Balanced Budget Pledge  Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 46th Congressional District | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

CA CD 46 Jerry Hayden: “Obamacare Is Holding Back the Economy.”

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 13, 2012

This just came across the wire from the Jerry Hayden for Congress campaign:

CA CD 46 Jerry Hayden: “Obamacare Is Holding Back the Economy.”

(Santa Ana, CA)- Today, Orange County Businessman and California GOP endorsed candidate Jerry Hayden called out Obamacare as one of the major reasons the economy continues to languish and is hurting the people of the 46th Congressional District. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 46th Congressional District | Tagged: | 2 Comments »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 46th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 11, 2012

This race always makes me feel like pulling my hair out. We always seem close to having the right factors in place to beat Loretta but can never quite win this seat. I thought for sure when Van Tran ran back in 2010 that we would take it back, but alas we did not.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

Unfortunately things got worse for Republicans in this seat with the redistricting commission making this one a bit more liberal. Democrats hold a 12 point advantage in this district and DTS voters are likely to lean a bit more to the lift than in other parts of Orange County.

Steve Cooley did beat Kamala Harris in the race for Attorney General in this district and Proposition 8 passed by a large margin. However, Democrats do seem to win on a consistent basis here.

Incumbent Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez does make sure to work her district, which does end up getting her votes on election day. She has represented a pretty solid chunk of this district during her tenure in Congress. One advantage for Republicans this time though is that her bank account was wiped out by Kindee Durkee.

Her challengers include:

John J. Cullum a Strategy Manager/Accountant who is running as a Republican.

Pat Garcia an Escrow Company Owner who is running as a Republican.

Jerry Hayden a Local Independent Businessman who is running as a Republican.

Jorge Rocha a Tax Accountant who is running as No Party Preference. This one I find interesting since he sought the CRA endorsement yet was ineligible to receive the CRA endorsement.

The factors at play- Loretta Sanchez is the only Democrat on the ballot, has incumbency on her side, and wields a high amount of Name ID.

Of the 3 Republicans it appears that Jerry Hayden is running the most effective campaign (although it is still early). Hayden also has the best ballot designations of all the challengers. The real question here though is if the Republicans all split the vote amongst each other allowing Jorge Rocha to advance. Hayden does appear willing to pour some serious resources into this campaign though.

Jorge Rocha likely made a very wise decision to run as  (NPP) because he has a decent shot of advancing if the Republicans split the vote evenly. If he can raise enough money to raise his name ID he has a shot. I think he will come close to finishing in the second slot but fall just a bit short.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Loretta Sanchez & Jerry Hayden

Posted in 46th Congressional District | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »