OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Posts Tagged ‘Steve Rocco’

Party Affiliations of Everyone Running for Everything on June 5

Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 31, 2018

In prior elections, some of the most popular articles on OC Political in the run-up to elections are the ones identifying the partisan affiliations of candidates on the ballot.  So back by popular demand, OC Political presents the political party affiliations of everyone running for everything on the June 5, 2018 Primary Election ballot in Orange County.

(Okay, this list is not everyone running for literally everything; it is everyone running for offices whose party affiliations are not shown on the ballot.  If you want to know the party affiliation of candidates for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Senate, House of Representatives, State Legislature, etc., just look on your ballot.)

Superior Court Judge, Office No. 13

  • Franklin Dunn – Republican
  • Theodore R. “Ted” Howard – Republican

Superintendent of Public Instruction

  • Steven Ireland – Democrat
  • Lily (Espinoza) Ploski – No Party Preference
  • Tony K. Thurmond – Democrat
  • Marshall Tuck – Democrat

County Superintendent of Schools

  • Al Mijares – Republican

County Board of Education, Area 2

  • Mari Barke – Republican
  • David L. Boyd – Democrat
  • Matt Nguyen – Democrat

County Board of Education, Area 5

  • Kimberly Clark – No Party Preference
  • Mike Dalati – Democrat
  • Dan Draitser – American Independent
  • Mary Navarro – Democrat
  • Lisa Sparks – Republican

Supervisor, 2nd District

  • Michael Mahony – Libertarian
  • Brendon Perkins – Democrat
  • Michelle Steel – Republican

Supervisor, 4th District

  • Cynthia Aguirre – Democrat
  • Doug Chaffee – Democrat
  • Rose Espinoza – Democrat
  • Joe Kerr – Democrat
  • Lucille Kring – Republican
  • Tim Shaw – Republican

Supervisor, 5th District

  • Lisa Bartlett – Republican

Assessor

  • Nathaniel Fernandez Epstein – Democrat
  • Claude Parrish – Republican
  • Richard B. Ramirez – Republican

Auditor-Controller

  • Toni Smart – American Independent
  • Eric H. Woolery – Republican

Clerk-Recorder

  • Hugh Nguyen – Republican
  • Steve Rocco – No Party Preference

District Attorney-Public Administrator

  • Lenore Albert-Sheridan – Democrat
  • Brett Murdock – Democrat
  • Tony Rackauckas – Republican
  • Todd Spitzer – Republican

Sheriff-Coroner

  • Don Barnes – Republican
  • David C. Harrington – Republican
  • Duke Nguyen – Democrat

Treasurer-Tax Collector

  • Shari L. Freidenrich – Republican

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 4th Supervisorial District, 5th Supervisorial District, Orange County, Orange County Assessor, Orange County Auditor-Controller, Orange County Board of Education, Orange County Clerk-Recorder, Orange County District Attorney's Office, Orange County Sheriff, Orange County Treasurer-Tax Collector | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Democrats Cast More OC Primary Election Votes Than Republicans for First Time Ever

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 8, 2016

Republican Presidential Nominee
Donald Trump

This is cross-posted to OC Daily.

In numbers that should scare Republicans across Orange County (and probably California, and maybe the United States), for the first time ever, more Orange County Democrats cast primary election ballots than Orange County Republicans did. Even in 2012, when Mitt Romney had sewn up the presidential nomination, more Republicans cast primary election votes than did in 2016. Even in the 2008 battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Democrats could not surpass Republicans in primary election ballots cast.

Party 2008 2012 2016
Democrat 317,859 (67.8%) 139,316 (27.5%) 231,638 (49.5%)
Republican 373,587 (52.2%) 234,396 (34.5%) 205,988 (36.9%)

The 2012 general election was a bloodbath for Republicans:

  • Democrats captured 2 Assembly seats from Republicans.
  • Democrats captured 3 Senate seats from Republicans.
  • Romney beat Obama by just 6.3% in Orange County.

Gerrymandered districts likely saved Republicans in 2008.  The 2016 elections will be conducted under the same district lines that were first contested in 2012.

2016 threatens to be worse than 2012.  Nowhere in Orange County is that more evident than in AD-65.  Here is how Assemblyman Chris Norby did against challenger Mayor Sharon Quirk-Silva in the 2012 primary:

Vote Count Percentage
CHRIS NORBY (REP) 29,917 58.8%
SHARON QUIRK-SILVA (DEM) 20,936 41.2%

Here is how Assemblywoman Young Kim did against challenger ex-Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva last night:

Vote Count Percentage
SHARON QUIRK-SILVA (DEM) 28,840 53.0%
YOUNG KIM (REP) 25,575 47.0%

Norby led Quirk-Silva by 17.6% in the 2012 primary before losing to her in the general election by a 52%-48% margin.  Kim is behind in the 2016 primary by an even larger margin than Norby lost in the 2012 general.  Republicans will need to marshal massive financial and human resources in order to save the AD-65 seat.

Things look even bleaker in a swing seat that neighbors Orange County, where 66th District Assemblyman David Hadley is at 45.6% and trails ex-Assemblyman Al Muratsuchi:

Vote Count Percentage
AL MURATSUCHI (DEM) 36,832 48.3%
DAVID HADLEY (REP) 34,773 45.6%
MIKE MADRIGAL (DEM) 4,659 6.1%

The tri-county SD-29 is a good news, bad news situation for Republicans:

Vote Count Percentage
LING LING CHANG (REP) 52,131 44.8%
JOSH NEWMAN (DEM) 34,013 29.2%
SUKHEE KANG (DEM) 30,280 26.0%

As of the last reporting period ending May 21, Chang had $369,770 cash on hand, Newman had $21,835 cash on hand, and Kang had $173,086 cash on hand.  The good news is that Chang now faces a weaker, underfunded opponent for a key Senate target seat.  The bad news is Chang only got 44.8% of the vote in the primary.

Other scary numbers for Republican incumbents in Orange County last night:

  • Assemblyman Travis Allen has just 50.9% of the vote.
Vote Count Percentage
TRAVIS ALLEN (REP) 35,062 50.9%
LENORE ALBERT-SHERIDAN (DEM) 20,067 29.1%
NAM PHAM (DEM) 13,723 19.9%
  • Supervisor Andrew Do (R) is headed to a run-off with Michele Martinez (D), who he beat by 0.3% or 200 votes.
Vote Count Percentage
ANDREW DO 20,730 35.8%
MICHELE MARTINEZ 20,530 35.5%
PHAT BUI 11,026 19.1%
STEVE ROCCO 5,582 9.6%
  • Assemblyman Matthew Harper joins Assemblywoman Young Kim (who we discussed above) as the only two incumbents in Orange County who were not in first place.
Vote Count Percentage
KARINA ONOFRE (DEM) 33,570 42.5%
MATTHEW HARPER (REP) 30,614 38.7%
KATHERINE DAIGLE (REP) 14,885 18.8%
  • Orange County Board of Education President Robert Hammond (R) is breathing a sigh of relief that County Board of Education races are winner-take-all in June with no runoff, for he beat Beckie Gomez (D) by 1.9% or 961 votes:
Vote Count Percentage
ROBERT M. HAMMOND 21,100 42.4%
REBECCA “BECKIE” GOMEZ 20,139 40.5%
PAUL ZIVE 8,479 17.1%

There’s also the implications of California’s U.S. Senate race:

Vote Count Percentage
KAMALA D. HARRIS (DEM) 2,044,347 40.4%
LORETTA L. SANCHEZ (DEM) 939,107 18.5%
DUF SUNDHEIM (REP) 405,730 8.0%

With the top Republican vote-getter for U.S. Senate, Duf Sundheim, finishing a distant third, that means for the first time in California history, the November ballot for U.S. Senate will not include a Republican. Instead due to the top-two primary, only two Democrats will be on the U.S. Senate ballot in California.

Republicans face a tall order this fall to overcome the Democratic surge.  Republicans will have to unify behind Republican candidates.  The Republican Party must organize volunteers and raise significant funds.  The OC GOP must strengthen its financial and human infrastructure in order to defeat Democrats.  Otherwise, 2016 will be a bleak year indeed.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 65th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, California, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments »

First Supervisorial District: Do Doubles Martinez’s Fundraising, Quintuples Bui’s Fundraising

Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 2, 2016

Andrew Do, Michele Martinez, Steve Rocco, and Phat Bui

Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster), Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D-Santa Ana), Steve Rocco (NPP-Santa Ana), and Councilman Phat Bui (R-Garden Grove)

In the First Supervisorial District race, Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster) raised $105,412, more than all of his opponents combined.  Do raised more than double the $48,186 raised by Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D-Santa Ana) and quintuple the $20,832 raised by Councilman Phat Bui (R-Garden Grove).  Former Orange Unified School District Trustee Steve Rocco (NPP-Santa Ana) signed the Form 470 declaring he would not raise or spend more than $2,000 beyond the candidate filing fee.

Do also outspent all of his opponents combined, spending $167,427, about double Bui’s spending of $84,719 and nearly ten times the $17,334 that Martinez spent.

Do also has double the cash-on-hand of all his opponents combined, with $101,971, which is more than triple Martinez’s $30,853, and more than seven times Bui’s $13,113.

Do loaned his campaign the most with $107,000, but he’s only touched about $5,000 of that.  Bui loaned his campaign $77,000, spending 91% of that (nearly $64,000).  Martinez loaned her campaign nothing.

Martinez could transfer money from her City Council account, but that was only $8.16.  Bui’s City Council campaign finance reports are unreadable.  Rocco has never had a campaign account open for any office he has ever run for.

For visual learners:

Candidate 12/31/15
Cash Balance
1/1/16-4/23/16
Contributions
Loans Expenditures Cash on Hand
Do $113,786 $105,412 $107,000 $167,427 $101,971
Martinez $0 $48,186 $0 $17,334 $30,853
Bui $0 $20,832 $77,000 $84,719 $13,113
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Live from the First Supervisorial District Candidate Forum

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 14, 2016

image

Candidate Forum Audience Survey

We’re live from the 1st Supervisorial Candidate Forum, sponsored by Connect-to-Council, Santa Ana Chamber of Commerce, Garden Grove Chamber of Commerce, Fountain Valley Chamber of Commerce, Anaheim Chamber of Commerce, Vietnamese American Chamber of Commerce, and Santa Ana College. The 46th Congressional District Candidate Forum will begin after the 1st Supervisorial District Candidate Forum concludes.

Three of the four candidates are present:
*Orange County Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster)
*Councilman/Business Owner Phat Bui (R-Garden Grove)
*Retired Educator/Writer Steve Rocco (NPP-Santa Ana)

Oddly enough, Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D-Santa Ana) is not present despite the forum being held in Santa Ana (in fact, it is less than a mile from Martinez’s Council ward).

The moderator is former Rancho Santiago Community College District Trustee Mark McLoughlin (D-Santa Ana). The focus will be on economic development and jobs.

Phat Bui delivers his opening statement. He notes that he has lived in the district since 1984. He speaks of founding his company in 1996, which has contracts with both private sector business and government agencies. He has been a Councilman since 2014. He says the First District is going in the wrong direction in animal care, transportation, and public safety. He complains about the County promoting the Tet Festival. He says he wants to work on homelessness and affordable housing.

Andrew Do speaks of his 14 months on the Board of Supervisors. He has worked to increase the Sheriff’s budget by $24 million. He blasts rising crime due to AB 109 and Prop 47. He speaks of County Sheriff and Probation working with local police departments. He won unanimous support on the Board of Supervisors to create a homeless czar to help those who cannot help themselves. He is working on crisis stabilization units among other items related to mental health.

Steve Rocco says he graduated from Santa Ana College with seven degrees and worked tech in the same auditorium that the forum is being held in. He blasts the snitch scandal as a fabrication. He says the true gang is “Rackauckas and his boys.” Rocco says Rackauckas controls the Board of Supervisors. He claims Rackauckas was illegally appointed Public Administrator. He says OC citizens are being murdered because of Rackauckas being appointed Public Administrator.

McLoughlin asks about County efforts to help workforce development and find qualified workers for open jobs via the Workforce Investment Board.

Do points to the outreach effort that got 1500 job seekers and 50 employers to the job fair, the highest participation ever.

Rocco says he would need to do his homework to understand the question. He attacks the Board of Supervisors for paying for buildings and Sheriff’s personnel. He claims he was prevented from writing a ballot argument against Measure A on a County Ethics Commission.

Bui says he wants to creat an environment empower employees and train them so they will be qualified for County jobs.

McLoughlin asks for each candidate’s top two priorities.

Rocco says the top priority is to get rid of District Attorney Tony Rackauckas. He says people are being murdered and kidnapped. He blasts the Orange County Register. He says Rocco himself is better than an Ethics Commission.

Bui says he wants to stop wasteful spending. He attacks Supervisors for sending mailers out. He attacks County mailers promoting a free income tax workshop. Bui states he wants transparency without hiding anything.

Do says he wants to tackle crime because property crime has increased by 23% and violent crime has increased in Santa Ana. He wants to work with law enforcement to fight crime, particularly due to AB 109 and Prop 47. Do states the homeless czar will be able to begin tackling homelessness by using metrics to determine effectiveness and with care programs, including mental health issues.

McLoughlin asks about homeless services.

Do states County departments are working in silos in their efforts to battle homelessness. He speaks of the homeless czar position coordinating all the different departments and care programs to address homelessness.

Rocco says the first person who signed his nomination papers for any office was a homeless person named Ray who Rocco next saw at ICU. He states he always saves a certain proportion of his nomination signatures for the homeless. He states the Public Administrator causes homelessness by taking people’s homes.

Bui states in Garden Grove, he is on the homeless task force. He says homelessness is out of control and the homeless in Garden Grove live in sewers. He states that charities need to be engaged with the County to brainstorm how to develop a comprehensive solution to homelessness.

An audience question asks each candidate how they differ from each candidate.

Bui says Do “is a disaster” as Supervisor. He says there is wasteful spending and rising crime.

Rocco says no one cares if Do or Bui will be elected. Rocco says people will care if he is elected. He states it was national news when he was elected to the Orange Unified School District Board. He states he will get the job done as Supervisor.

Do points to his experience and track record. He notes he is a former prosecutot, a former Chief of Staff to a Supervisor, and a sitting Supervisor. He states the Board of Supervisors has entrusted him with leadership positions on homelessness, public safety, and County building infrastructure.

McLoughlin asks about the County’s capital improvement program, with many buildings in the First District and how it helps

Rocco states that the existing buildings are relatively new and that there is no air conditioning for the homeless.

Bui states money should not be spent on buildings, but instead on transportation and public safety.

Do notes the average age of County buildings in the Civic Center is 47 years. He notes there is an average of 300 square feet of space per employee back in the days of paper files. In the digital era, that can be reduced to 150 square feet per employee. He notes there is 700,000 square feet of leased space in the Civic Center due to building inefficiency that could be solved with the capital improvement program.

McLoughlin asks about ICE involvement in County jails.

Do notes that this is the purview of the elected Sheriff under the Constitution.

Rocco accuses the Sheriff of killing a man in Los Angeles County. He says the Board of Supervisors should cut funding to the Sheriff.

Bui says there needs to be trust in law enforcement experts.

McLoughlin asks about the OC Strategic Plan for Aging.

After asking for three repetitions of the question, Bui states the elderly do not have enough to live on. He wants to speak to the federal government to seek more funding for health care and affordable housing.

Do suggests creating new work programs and work schedules that take advantage of the experience of older residents while respecting their reduced work.

Rocco notes three of the leading presidential candidates over age 65. He would not support any social service programs because they are dangerous to people’s health.

McLoughlin asks about mismanagement at 500,000-member CalOptima.

Do states CalOptima has 800,000 members. He is on the CalOptima Board and has restructured the Board to reduce insider control. He has helped expand the number of eligible providers.

Rocco notes Supervisor Todd Spitzer would never, ever want Rocco on the CalOptima Board. Rocco says he knows more about the medical system than anyone else. He says there was money laundering in the 2012 election.

Bui wants to remove County Supervisors from the CalOptima Board and worries about the influence of campaign contributions on CalOptima.

McLoughlin asks about creating more parks and green space in the park-poor First District.

Bui says there is no hope of creating more parks. He wants to make existing parks more efficient. He says County spending on the Tet Festival is wasteful.

Do states that equating green space with parks needs to be reduced. He wants to pursue joint-use agreements with school districts to use school open space.

Rocco blasts Jessica’s Law for banning sex offenders from parks. He says parks are underutilized. He says parks need to be safe.

An audience question asks about whether the current Supervisorial districts are gerrymandered. He states a complaint were filed by Latinos with the Justice Department regarding the Supervisorial districts.

Bui states he is unfamiliar with the issue. He states districts must represent all people without favoring one group over another.

Rocco states the Orange Unified School District gerrymandered him out of a seat. He states gerrymandering is part of politics. He blasts at-large voting.

Do states the legal analysis required knowing the motive. He states he would oppose gerrymandering.

McLoughlin calls for closing statements.

Bui states he has a passion for service. He thanks the audience for attending and asks for their vote.

Do thanks the organizers and the audience. He speaks of his experience, qualifications, and track record of getting meaningful results.

Rocco states he has gotten 158,000 votes over the years. He states he is not Vietnamese, Latino, Republican, or Democrat. He states he is not a lawyer, but “one of you.” He wants to get things done.

With that, the forum ends in under an hour.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Are Unions Using Phat Bui as a Decoy for Michele Martinez?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 9, 2016

Andrew Do, Michele Martinez, Steve Rocco, and Phat Bui

Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster), Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D-Santa Ana), Steve Rocco (NPP-Santa Ana), and Councilman Phat Bui (R-Garden Grove)

Since I broke the story Friday of Garden Grove Councilman Phat Bui (R) pulling papers for First District Supervisor, I’ve had many people ask why Bui is joining convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco (NPP) and Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D) in challenging the re-election bid of Supervisor Andrew Do (R).

I have heard lots of different rumors as to why Bui is running, considering he is a Councilman just 15 months into his first term. The most logical conclusion is that labor unions have either put Bui up to this or have tricked Bui into running in order to split the Vietnamese-American vote, the Republican vote, and the Garden Grove vote to force a run-off election between Do and Martinez.

Democrats have been plagued by low voter turnout throughout the presidential primaries and caucuses between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders while Republican voter turnout has been at record levels in nearly every state.

Democrats and labor unions hope forcing Do into a run-off against Martinez will utilize the high presidential general election turnout of Democrats and Latinos to allow Martinez to pull off an upset.  While it is unlikely Martinez would win, this scenario is still the best hope she has of victory.

Bui’s City Council election web site showed only eight endorsements: Orange County District Attorney Tony Rackauckas, a labor union, two non-Orange County elected officials, and four private citizens.  With Rackauckas endorsing Do, that only leaves labor in Bui’s corner.

Labor knows they need Martinez in the run-off, and Bui’s entry helps that effort.

It is still possible for Do to break 50% and avert a run-off.  Do likely would have been able to easily do so in a Do-Martinez-Rocco field.  With Bui in the race, Martinez’s supporters can hope Bui can siphon off enough votes to keep Do under 50%.

Bui was probably either promised lots of support that won’t materialize (in which case he was tricked into running) or else told to be a spoiler with the promise of support for something else in the future.

Things tend to go poorly for Vietnamese American elected officials who try to unseat other Vietnamese American elected officials.  For example, eight years ago, Garden Grove Councilwoman Dina Nguyen challenged Supervisor Janet Nguyen’s re-election to this same seat.  Janet Nguyen is now a Senator while Dina Nguyen is now on a water board.

Shunned by the Republican Party and abandoned by labor is not a great spot for any Republican elected official.  This candidacy for Supervisor could lead to being in a no-man’s land, which is not a great place for a newly-elected Councilman.

(Cue my usual Nguyen disclaimer: I am not related to the State Senator Janet Nguyen or Water Board Director Dina Nguyen.  The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

1st District Chaos: Garden Grove Councilman Phat Bui Pulls Papers to Challenge Andrew Do

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 4, 2016

Andrew Do, Michele Martinez, Steve Rocco, and Phat Bui

Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster), Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D-Santa Ana), Steve Rocco (NPP-Santa Ana), and Councilman Phat Bui (R-Garden Grove)

Garden Grove Councilman Phat Bui (R) has joined convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco (NPP) in pulling papers to challenge the re-election bid of Supervisor Andrew Do (R).  Additionally, Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D) and the enigmatic Robert Bao Nguyen have also pulled papers to challenge Do’s re-election bid in the First Supervisorial District, which consists of Santa Ana, Garden Grove, Westminster, Midway City, and northern Fountain Valley.

Bui’s entry into the race had been rumored for days, with Bui himself reportedly seeking support for his race in Sacramento on Wednesday despite the Republican Party’s official endorsement of Do’s re-election.

Bui, who was just elected to the Garden Grove City Council just sixteen months ago with labor union support, is the third member of his council to make a bid for higher office in the last fourteen months, joining Mayor Bao Nguyen (D), who is currently running for the 46th Congressional District but trails former Senator Lou Correa (D) badly in polling, and Councilman Chris Phan (R), who made an ill-fated bid for First District Supervisor against Do and Correa, coming in a distant third.

Bui’s home had displayed signs supporting both Correa and Phan in the 2015 special election for Supervisor that Do had won.

By splitting the Vietnamese-American vote, the Republican vote, and the Garden Grove vote, Republican Bui’s entry into the race substantially increases the risk of forcing a Do-Martinez run-off, which many Democrats hope and many Republicans fear will pull resources away from the re-election bid of Assemblywoman Young Kim (R) against former Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva (D) and the Senate bid of Assemblywoman Ling-Ling Chang (R) against former Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang (D).

There’s no perfectly analogous race, but these are the four closest I’m aware of:

  • In 2014, there was a five-way race for Auditor-Controller, featuring Orange Treasurer/CPA Eric Woolery (R), Property Tax Director Frank Davies (R), Accountant Mike Dalati (D), Assistant Human Resources Director John Willard (NPP), and Audit Advisor Jim Benuzzi (D).  Woolery won 57%, Davies 17%, Dalati 11%, Willard 7%, and Benuzzi 7%.  Despite not being the incumbent, Woolery managed to avoid a run-off in a five-way race.
  • In 2014, Clerk-Recorder Hugh Nguyen (R) was challenged for re-election by Businesswoman Monica Maddox (R), Capistrano Unified School District Trustee Gary Pritchard (D), and convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco (NPP).  Nguyen avoided a run-off by winning 61% of the vote to Maddox’s 18%, Pritchard’s 12%, and Rocco’s 8%.
  • In 2010, Public Administrator John Williams (R) was challenged by Superior Court Clerk Colleen Callahan, convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco (DTS), and Deputy Public Guardian Kevin Vann (D).  Williams avoided a run-off by winning 58% of the vote to Callahan’s 24%, Rocco’s 11%, and Vann’s 7%.
  • In 1998, Supervisor Jim Silva (R) was challenged for re-election by Huntington Beach Councilman Dave Sullivan (R), former Costa Mesa Councilwoman Sandy Genis (R), and a mysterious Ralph Silva.  Jim Silva won 45%, Sullivan 26%, Genis 17%, and Ralph Silva 11%.  In the run-off, Silva defeated Sullivan 56%-44%.

It appears the current Garden Grove Councilmembers are dreaming of replicating the success of their predecessors: in 2012, Phan won the seat that was once held by Do and once held by former State Assemblyman Ken Maddox (R); State Senator Janet Nguyen (R) also previously sat on the Garden Grove City Council (her former seat is now held by Councilman Steve Jones, also a Republican).

Cue my usual Nguyen disclaimer: I am not related to the mysterious Robert Bao Nguyen, Garden Grove Mayor Bao Nguyen, Clerk-Recorder Hugh Nguyen, or State Senator Janet Nguyen.  The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Michele Martinez Pulls Papers for Supervisor, But Warchest Can’t Buy Denny’s Moons Over My Hammy

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 22, 2016

Andrew Do, Michele Martinez, Steve Rocco

Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster), Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D-Santa Ana), and Steve Rocco (NPP-Santa Ana)

Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D) has joined convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco (NPP) in pulling papers to challenge the re-election bid of Supervisor Andrew Do (R).  Additionally, the enigmatic Robert Bao Nguyen has also pulled papers to challenge Do’s re-election bid in the First Supervisorial District, which consists of Santa Ana, Garden Grove, Westminster, Midway City, and northern Fountain Valley.

Martinez clearly wasn’t planning a challenge to Do until recently, as she still doesn’t have a campaign account for Supervisor open, and her City Council account had $8.16 in it as of December 31.  No, that’s not a typo: she had eight dollars and sixteen cents.  If she had a campaign meeting at Denny’s, she wouldn’t even be able to buy the $8.99 Moons Over My Hammy with her Council account.  The good news for her is she has no loans or unpaid bills, so she has the $8.16 free and clear.

Even if she is depending on independent expenditures to assist her in a bid against Do, IEs alone cannot power a campaign.  The candidate has to have some funds available.  Additionally, most IEs like to see candidates be able to give themselves self-help before the IEs will intervene, particularly when a challenger is seeking to unseat an incumbent.

Martinez is clearly the Democrats’ last-minute replacement candidate, as Santa Ana Mayor Pro Tem Vince Sarmiento (D) had been exploring a run for Supervisor for quite some time, even opening a campaign committee for Supervisor on January 8 (interestingly, an IE PAC supporting Sarmiento for Supervisor opened on January 7).

By entering the 2016 race against Do, Martinez continues her decade-long streak of alternating between bids for higher office and bids for re-election:

  • In 2006, Martinez won her bid for City Council with 32.6% of the vote in a four-way race, narrowly edging Republican Evangeline Gawronski, who got 30.2% of the vote.
  • In 2008, Martinez made an ill-fated bid to unseat Mayor Miguel Pulido, who crushed her 55.0%-29.3% in a four-way race.
  • In 2010, Martinez was unopposed for re-election.
  • In 2012, Martinez won only 16.7% of the vote for the open 69th Assembly District seat, coming in second-to-last out of five candidates.
  • In 2014, she won 52.0% of the vote in a four-way race in her bid for a third term on the City Council.

Martinez raised $31,108 in her 2014 re-election bid for Council.  Do reported $113,786 cash-on-hand at the end of 2015.  Rocco has never raised money in any of his numerous bids for office.

Awkwardly, the same day that Martinez pulled papers against Do, CBS 2/KCAL 9 ran a story entitled, “On Average, 1 Shooting Reported Each Day In Santa Ana In 2016.”  It’s safe to assume the campaign of former prosecutor Do will highlight the rising crime in Martinez’s city.

Convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco, a former Orange Unified School District Trustee, pulled papers in early January and completed filing on Tuesday.  He is running as “Retired Educator/Writer” on the ballot.

Curiously, on Wednesday, the enigmatic Robert Bao Nguyen pulled papers to challenge Do.  It is unclear if he is simply another Rocco-type running, or if there is a more sinister motive behind his candidacy, such as pulling Vietnamese American votes away from Do in an effort to force him into a November run-off against Martinez.  Even the name Robert Bao Nguyen seeks to benefit from the name ID of Garden Grove Mayor Bao Nguyen (D), who is running for Congress in the 46th District, which includes, among other places, Santa Ana and small portions of Garden Grove.

(Cue my usual Nguyen disclaimer: I am not related to the mysterious Robert Bao Nguyen nor Garden Grove Mayor Bao Nguyen.  The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, Santa Ana | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

June 2014 Organizational Endorsements Scorecard

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 5, 2014

Chris Nguyen posted a humongous grid of endorsements that broke down all the major organizations and what candidates they endorsed for non-partisan offices in Orange County. You can take a look at his humongous grid of endorsements here. As a follow-up I have done the math on how the endorsed candidates fared in the Tuesday election and have given credit to an organization for endorsing a candidate that either won outright or advanced to the November election.

report_card

Here is a guide to the abbreviations: OC GOP = Republican Party of Orange County, DPOC = Democratic Party of Orange County, CRA = California Republican Assembly, HJTA = Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, CWLA = California Women’s Leadership Association, OC Tax = Orange County Taxpayers Association, OCBC = Orange County Business Council, and CTA = California Teachers Association.

OC GOP DPOC OC Register Lincoln Club Atlas PAC CRA Family Action PAC HJTA CWLA OC Tax OCBC CTA OC Labor Federation Evolve Women in Leadership Planned Parenthood
%  83% 14% 76%  75% 80% 83% 83% 100% 100% 92% 50% 50% 43% 0%  50% 33%
# of Winners  10  1  13  9  8  10 5  5  7  11  2  1  3  0  1  1
# of Losers  2 6  4  3  2  2  1  0  0  1  2  1 4 2  1 2

 

Anybody that got 75% and higher can be considered an organization with a valuable endorsement but the big winners from this election cycle were the California Women’s Leadership Association (Orange County Chapter) and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association both of which managed to endorse no losers.

 

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 4th Supervisorial District, 5th Supervisorial District, Anaheim, Buena Park School District, Democrat Central Committee, Irvine Unified School District, Orange County, Orange County Assessor, Orange County Auditor-Controller, Orange County Board of Education, Orange County Clerk-Recorder, Orange County Public Administrator, Orange County Treasurer-Tax Collector, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Giant Grid of Endorsements for the June 3 Primary Election

Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 30, 2014

One of our most popular posts from the November 2012 General Election was “Humongous Grid of Endorsements,” so we’re back this election with the Giant Grid of Endorsements for the June 2014 Primary Election.

I did abbreviate for some groups, so OC GOP = Republican Party of Orange County, DPOC = Democratic Party of Orange County, CRA = California Republican Assembly, HJTA = Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, CWLA = California Women’s Leadership Association, OC Tax = Orange County Taxpayers Association, OCBC = Orange County Business Council, and CTA = California Teachers Association.

If you’re particularly interested in a group, click their name to view their endorsements on their web site.  You can learn more about the group there, such as HJTA being the state’s leading taxpayer advocate group or Women in Leadership being a single-issue group with the sole goal of electing “pro-choice women candidates to local, regional and state-wide office who support keeping abortion legal.” (In light of their mission, does anyone else find it odd that Women in Leadership’s two endorsements on this grid are both for school board?)

Candidates in each race are listed in alphabetical order by last name, except incumbents got listed first in their respective races.  Party affiliations are listed except for judicial candidates Thomas Martin and Wayne Philips, as I could not tell their affiliation from the voter database (common names combined with obscure judicial races make figuring out their affiliations challenging).

Whether you love a group and want to vote with their endorsements or hate a group and want to vote against their endorsements, here are the endorsements for county offices and school board, along with local ballot measures:

OC GOP DPOC OC Register Lincoln Club Atlas PAC CRA Family Action PAC HJTA CWLA OC Tax OCBC CTA OC Labor Federation Evolve Women in Leadership Planned Parenthood
Supervisor, 2nd District
Joe Carchio (R)
Allan Mansoor (R) X
Jim Moreno (D) X X X X
Michelle Steel (R) X X X X X X
Supervisor, 4th District
Shawn Nelson (R – incumbent) X X X X X
Rudy Gaona (D) X X
Supervisor, 5th District
Lisa Bartlett (R)
Robert Ming (R) X X X X X X
Frank Ury (R) X X X
Joe Williams (NPP)
Assessor
Webster Guillory (NPP – incumbent) X
Jorge Lopez (D) X X
Claude Parrish (R) X X X X X
Auditor-Controller
James Benuzzi (D)
Mike Dalati (D) X
Frank Davies (R)
John Willard (NPP) X
Eric Woolery (R) X X X X
Clerk-Recorder
Hugh Nguyen (R – incumbent) X X X X X X
Monica Maddox (R)
Gary Pritchard (D) X X
Steve Rocco (NPP)
District Attorney-Public Administrator
Tony Rackauckas (R – incumbent) X X X X X
Greg Diamond (D) X
Sheriff-Coroner
Sandra Hutchens (R – incumbent) X X X X
Superintendent of Schools
Al Mijares (R – incumbent) X X
Treasurer-Tax Collector
Shari Freidenrich (R – incumbent) X X X X X X X
Judge, Office #14
Fred Fascenelli (R)
Kevin Haskins (R) X X X X X
KC Jones (R) X
Thomas Martin
Judge, Office #20
Derek Johnson (D – incumbent)
Helen Hayden (R) X X X X
Judge, Office #27
Joanne Motoike (D – incumbent) X X X
Wayne Philips
Judge, Office #35
Jeff Ferguson (R) X X X
Carmen Luege (R) X X
County Board of Education, Trustee Area 2
David Boyd (R – incumbent) * X X X
Tom Pollitt (R) X X X X X X
County Board of Education, Trustee Area 5
Elizabeth Parker (R – incumbent) * X X X X
Linda Lindholm (R) X X X X X X X
Irvine Unified School District (Special Election for Six-Month Term)
Ira Glasky (R – incumbent) X X  X
Carolyn Inmon (D) X X
Bob Vu (R)
Measure A (Orange County)
Yes X X X X
No
Measure B (Buena Park School District)
Yes
No X
Measure C (Anaheim)
Yes X X
No
Measure D (Anaheim)
Yes
No X
Measure E (Anaheim)
Yes X X
No

*The Democratic Party of Orange County did not endorse David Boyd or Elizabeth Parker, instead the DPOC issued anti-endorsements against Tom Pollitt and Linda Lindholm.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 4th Supervisorial District, 5th Supervisorial District, Anaheim, Buena Park School District, Democrat Central Committee, Irvine Unified School District, Orange County, Orange County Assessor, Orange County Auditor-Controller, Orange County Board of Education, Orange County Clerk-Recorder, Orange County Public Administrator, Orange County Treasurer-Tax Collector, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Handicapping The Races: OC Clerk-Recorder (June 2014)

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 28, 2014

I am onto the last race that I am posting an analysis for (This June) and will give readers my take on the upcoming OC Clerk-Recorder race, which features the following candidates:

  • Steve Rocco – Retired Teacher
  • Monica Maddox – Local Businesswoman
  • Gary Pritchard – Governing Board Member, Capistrano Unified School District
  • Hugh Nguyen – Appointed Orange County Clerk-Recorder

Voter registration heavily favors Republicans in Orange County as a whole, Republicans have 42% of registered voters, Democrats have 31% of registered voters, and No Party Preference voters count for 22% of the electorate. Even though party affiliations matter very little in these races because they do not appear on the ballot we will fill in readers on what they are; Steve Rocco has No Party Preference, Monica Maddox is a Republican, Gary Pritchard is a Democrat and Hugh Nguyen is a Republican.

Also, it is important to explain that this race is just like a race for Orange County Supervisor where the top two vote getters will advance to November, unless the top vote getter finishes with over 50% of the vote.

Steve Rocco

Rocco is a non-factor in this race and I will list nothing but the following picture for prospective voters. This is all you need to know:

rocco

Monica Maddox

Monica Maddox is not running much of a campaign based on campaign finance data that has come in. Her only donation as of March 17th was from personal funds, totaling less than $6,000. She has no name ID because she has never been on the ballot before.

Her website as an absolute disaster with her first bullet point stating, “Monica will never vote for a tax increase.” This is an excellent campaign promise but it makes no mention of the fact that this is an executive office and does not have the ability to vote on items.

I do not think that she has much of a chance to advance to November.

Gary Pritchard

Gary Pritchard is a liberal member of the Capistrano Unified School Board and a lot of people are curious as to why he is running for this seat.

Pritchard will have some name ID due to the times he has appeared on the ballot in South OC for both CUSD and when he challenged Mimi Walters for the 33rd Senate District. However, Pritchard is not running much of a campaign and didn’t even bother to get the ballot statement.. Let’s take a look at his electoral history.

Results from 2012 (General Election):

CAPISTRANO UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 5
Completed Precincts: 31 of 31
Vote Count Percentage
GARY PRITCHARD 9,087 59.1%
WILLIAM “BILL” PERKINS 6,291 40.9%

Results from 2008 (General Election):

STATE SENATOR 33rd District
Completed Precincts: 754 of 754
Vote Count Percentage
MIMI WALTERS (REP) 219,068 58.1%
GARY PRITCHARD (DEM) 157,945 41.9%

As you can see from the election results, Pritchard is an average candidate at best, running countywide without a ballot statement is not a campaign that he will likely win. This is amplified by the fact that a more conservative electorate is expected thanks to it being a gubernatorial primary election.

Pritchard is ironically the most likely opponent to possibly push Hugh Nguyen to a November run-off.

Hugh Nguyen

Hugh Nguyen was appointed to the office almost a year ago and has done an excellent job in running the office. He has run the most comprehensive campaign of all the candidates in the race purchasing slates and signs.

He ran for the seat in 2010 and did not have the best of luck when facing Tom Daly. Here are the results from that race:

County Clerk-Recorder
Completed Precincts: 2084 of 2084
Vote Count Percentage
* TOM DALY 286,286 74.6%
HUGH NGUYEN 97,711 25.4%

Hugh Nguyen will eventually win this seat but the question is whether or not he can win it in June based on the fact that three other candidates are in the race to split the vote.

My gut feeling is that because Hugh is the only candidate with a ballot statement and the only candidate that is making a real attempt at reaching out to voter, the odds are in his favor.

Prediction Time

Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict the winner will be

Hugh Nguyen (in June) – I think he is going to clear 50% of the vote.

Posted in Orange County Clerk-Recorder | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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