OC Political

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Posts Tagged ‘Nesa Anderson’

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 73

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 25, 2012

AD 73 is a bastion of conservatism, and it will be a safe Republican seat in both the June and November election for Assemblywoman Harkey.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Dave Duringer– He is a gun trust attorney who I believe is involved in the tea party (not 100% sure on that. He also ran for the Central Committee back in 2010 prior to redistricting when his district was the 71st.

Mary Young– She has been an activist with the Republican Party of Orange County for a very long time. She is also campaigning the hardest of anybody I have ever seen for a Central Committee seat. *Incumbent.

Mike Munzing– He was at one point running against John Campbell for Congress and then wisely decided to run for Aliso Viejo City Council. He is very good at marketing himself from what I have witnessed through his many activities. *Incumbent.

Alice Anderson– She is currently an incumbent in this district. I would encourage those involved in OCGOP politics to seek out a way to sign her nomination papers if you live in this district. *Incumbent.

Norm Dickinson– Many people who I have talked to have said that he is the foremost expert on the bylaws in the Republican Party of Orange County. I cannot see that I disagree from what I have witnessed. *Incumbent.

Steve Magdziak– He is one of the few that has set up a website for his Central Committee race http://www.stevemagdziak.com/ His website does not include much information about his background but if I had to guess I would think he was part of the Ron Paul crowd.

Chandra Chell– She is active in Republican politics through Atlas PAC among other things and she has also been involved in the CRA among other Republican volunteer organizations. *Incumbent.

Linda Barnes– From a bit of research I have learned that she is part of the leadership team with OC912 a conservative group which is tied to the tea party.

Greg Woodard– He recently friended me on Facebook. After having a conversation with him I found that he is involved in a lot of conservative groups including Atlas PAC and Family Action PAC. He was also appointed to a seat on the OC GOP Central Committee making him an incumbent as well. *Incumbent.

Nancy Padberg– She was previously on the Central Committee but was one of the members that was ousted in this past election. As an elected official on the South Orange County Community College District, her name ID will be high.

Tony Beall– He currently is an incumbent on both the Central Committee and on the Rancho Santa Margarita City Council. He also has been a conservative voice on the issues involving the Capistrano Unified School District. *Incumbent.

Kevin Richardson– According to the very little that I could find out about him he is one of the co-founders of SOC912 which I referenced above (OC912).

Nina R. Davar– I am seeing a trend here as when I did a bit of googling I found her name attached to SOC912 as well as other candidates with tea party ties.

John C. Drew– A writer for Examiner.com on Republican Party of Orange County Republican politics. He had a lot of information on his bio including the fact that he is an award-winning political scientist.

Susan A. Bock– I was unable to find any information on her.

Nesa Anderson– She is a Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman from what I believe is San Clemente. She also won the lottery to appear first on the ballot.

Evan P. Chafee– He will appear on the ballot as a Marketing Sales Representative. All I could find about him is that he is from San Juan Capistrano.

Mark Dobrilovic– He is an activist that I have heard about tat runs in the Tea Party circles. He also ran for Mission Viejo City Council in 2010.

Jon Steven Fleischman– He is a major player in Republican Party Politics and he runs te popular Flash Report website. I definitely see him winning one of the 6 available seats.

Roy Fussell– A Realtor who is running, I was unable to find much more information.

Paul Hebbard– He is listed on the ballot as a Certified Public Accountant and outside of that I know very little.

Michael Kogus– He is listed on the ballot as a Business Owner, but like some of the other challengers I was unable to find any information on him.

Erik Stolaski– He is a Tea Party Republican who I believe worked on the Nelson for Supervisor campaign if I recall correctly.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Alice Anderson
2. Tony Beall
3. Mary Young
4. Mike Munzing
5.  Greg Woodard Jon Steven Fleischman This was a mistake on my part when writing the post. My apologies to Greg Woodard who is a really nice guy and a very solid Republican.
6. Nancy Padberg

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

Feeling Lucky! Newest California Lottery Winners: Webb, Garcia, Varaseth, Walters, Norby, Avalos, Daly, Allen, Harkey, Daigle, Nguyen, Spitzer, Downing, Night, Dumitru, Dyrud, Nagel, Anderson, Aiken

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 16, 2012

LotteryYesterday afternoon, the newest winners of the California lottery were announced: Businessman John Webb, Businessman Pat Garcia, Businessman Ron Varaseth, Senator Mimi Walters, Assemblyman Chris Norby, Perennial candidate Christina Avalos, Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly, Businessman Travis Allen, Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, Supervisor Janet Nguyen, former Supervisor/Assemblyman Todd Spitzer, Businesswoman Karla Downing, Central Committee Member Baron Night, Orange Councilman Jon Dumitru, Central Committee Member Gwen Dyrud, Central Committee Member Steve Nagel, San Clemente Planning Commissioner Nesa Anderson, and Office Clerk Jon Aiken.

No, these 19 people are not splitting a $200,000,000 jackpot.  They won the Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery.

What’s the candidate order lottery, you ask?

Well, California law requires a lottery to determine the order of candidates on the ballot.  Why does this law exist?  Studies of the primacy effect showed the candidate at the top of the ballot gains as much as a 5% increase in votes.  Consequently, in 1975, California legislators adopted a law mandating an end to the alphabetical listing of candidates (likely to the chagrin of Sam Aanestad and Dick Ackerman but the joy of Mary Young and Ed Zschau) and requiring a lottery before each election.

The Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery has determined the alphabet for the June primary to be UNADIVXWQGOZLTRKSJHMCBFPYE.

This applies to most races on the ballot, excluding races that cross county lines (for OC, these would be CD-38, CD-39, CD-47, CD-49, SD-29, and AD-55).

The primacy effect is weaker when there are fewer candidates on the ballot, and when there are higher-profile campaigns.  Being at the top of the ballot is most valuable for low-profile campaigns with large numbers of candidates.  That means that of the 19 people I listed above, the biggest winners in this lottery are the Central Committee candidates, so the biggest congratulations goes to the following Republican Central Committee Candidates for their 5% vote bonus:

  • 55th District: Karla Downing, Small Business Owner (1st of 10 candidates)
  • 65th District: Baron Night, Incumbent (1st of 11 candidates)
  • 68th District: Jon Dumitru, City Councilman (1st of 18 candidates)
  • 69th District: Gwen A. Dyrud, Appointed Incumbent (1st of 10 candidates)
  • 72nd District: Steve A. Nagel, Incumbent (1st of 14 candidates)
  • 73rd District: Nesa Anderson, Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman (1st of a stunning 22 candidates)
  • 74th District: Jon Aiken, Office Clerk (1st of 16 candidates)

For the races that cross county lines, each county does its own lottery, so here are the OC Registrar’s lottery results: DMNESVTUHKWGXFCIQYAORZPLJB.

Congratulations to these candidates who won the Registrar’s lottery and will appear at the top of the ballot in the Orange County portions of their districts:

  • 38th Congressional District: Linda Sanchez (D), United States Representative (1st of 3)
  • 39th Congressional District: D’Marie Mulattieri (DCorrection: NPP), Community Volunteer (1st of 3)
  • 47th Congressional District: Gary DeLong (R), Local Small Businessman (1st of 8)
  • 49th Congressional District: Albin Novinec (NPP), United States Marine (1st of 4)
  • 29th Senate District: Greg Diamond (D), Workers’ Rights Attorney (1st of 2)
  • 55th Assembly District: Curt Hagman (R), Member of the State Assembly (1st of 2)

You would think that with electronic voting now, the names could be randomized for every poll voter (obviously, we’d still need the lottery for absentee voters).

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working for Assemblyman Chris Norby, one of the lottery winners, as the letter N came in second in the alphabet behind U, though no one with a last name starting with U is running in all of Orange County.)

Posted in 29th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

 
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