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Posts Tagged ‘John Campbell’

AD 72: Mayor Pro Tem Diep Becomes Early Frontrunner in Race to Replace Assemblyman Allen

Posted by Chris Nguyen on July 11, 2017

Mayor Pro Tem Tyler Diep (R-Westminster)

Mayor Pro Tem Tyler Diep (R-Westminster)

Cross-posted to OC Daily

As reported by OC Daily in English and Viet Bao in Vietnamese, Westminster Mayor Pro Tem Tyler Diep has officially thrown his hat in the ring for the 72nd Assembly District, finally confirming rumors that had swirled since mid-June.  The seat is being vacated by Assemblyman Travis Allen, who is running for Governor.

Diep comes out of the gate wielding a $260,000 City Council warchest that he can easily transfer to his Assembly race.  Diep also wields the most useful endorsement for this seat: the incumbent, Travis Allen.  The endorsement of the current occupant of the seat being sought is always uniquely helpful in a campaign, but Allen’s endorsement has an extra degree of usefulness in 2018 due to his increased name ID from his bid for Governor.

The two dominant population centers of AD-72 are Little Saigon and Huntington Beach.  In these two areas, Diep has locked up the endorsements of nearly anyone who could run against him.  He has sought to not only clear the field but win the support of the field.  It is difficult to launch a bid against someone when you have already endorsed them.

Diep quickly rounded up the endorsements of all three rumored candidates from Huntington Beach: Councilmembers Barbara Delgleize, Mike Posey, and Patrick Brenden.  (Posey is so popular that he was rumored for AD-72 despite being a resident of AD-74.)

Diep has locked down the endorsements of nearly every Vietnamese-American elected official in AD-72: Westminster Mayor Tri Ta, Westminster Councilwoman Kimberly Ho, Fountain Valley Mayor Pro Tem Michael Vo, Garden Grove School Board Members Dina Nguyen and Lan Quoc Nguyen, and Westminster School Board Members Frances Nguyen and Khanh Nguyen.  (In fact, Diep has the endorsement of every Vietnamese-American school board member in AD-72.)

The only other Republican Vietnamese-American City Councilmember in AD-72 (or actually, in all of Orange County) is Phat Bui of Garden Grove.  However, Bui was so badly bloodied in the First Supervisorial District race last year in which he came in third behind Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez and Supervisor Andrew Do that an AD-72 bid by Bui would be quixotic.  The Democrats’ sole Vietnamese-American City Councilmember is Thu-Ha Nguyen, who was just elected last year, but the AD-72 seat will remain in Republican hands and Councilwoman Nguyen occupies a small district seat since Garden Grove switched to by-district elections last year, so her name ID is confined to a small portion of Garden Grove.

At this point, it is difficult to see any viable opponent to Diep since virtually any viable candidate for AD-72 has endorsed Diep.

In my conversations with other people about the Diep candidacy before he officially announced, I commented that Diep appeared to be borrowing a page from the Mimi Walters strategy, and his official announcement bears that out.  In June 2013, when Congressman John Campbell announced that he would not seek re-election in 2014, Walters came barreling out of the gate with a large warchest and a slew of endorsements that included nearly every potential opponent.  The strategy worked well for Walters who won her seat and worked to help elect so many other Republicans that she was quickly elected by freshmen Members of Congress to serve as their representative in the House Republican leadership after the 2014 election and then again as the sophomore representative after the 2016 election.

And, yes, Walters has endorsed Diep.

Here’s the full text of the Diep’s announcement:

Councilman Tyler Diep Launches Campaign for 72nd Assembly District
Diep Enters Race with Significant Momentum: $260k COH & Key Endorsement

(Westminster, CA) – Westminster Councilman Tyler Diep announced today that he is running for State Assembly.

The announcement comes after 72nd District Assemblyman Travis Allen opted to vacate the seat in 2018 to run for Governor. Allen has endorsed Diep’s campaign to succeed him in the Assembly.

“Tyler is the right person to represent us in the State Assembly,” said Assemblyman Allen. “He is a dedicated public servant and has a proven record of fighting higher taxes and job killing regulations.”

Councilman Diep will begin the campaign with significant campaign resources – he will transfer approximately $260,000 from his council campaign account to his assembly race.

“I am passionate about public service, my community and fighting to make Orange County a better place to raise a family and start a business,” said Diep. “I look forward to taking my experience in Orange County to Sacramento and between now and election day I’ll work hard to earn the vote of every neighborhood in the 72nd district.”

The 72nd District includes all of Westminster, Garden Grove, Fountain Valley, Los Alamitos, Seal Beach, a portion of Huntington Beach and the unincorporated county island of Midway City.

Axiom Strategies will serve as general consultants for Diep’s campaign, John Bovee of Capital Development Strategies will assist Diep with fundraising, and Lysa Ray will serve as his treasurer.

Diep was first elected to the Westminster City Council in 2008.  He has been a strong taxpayer advocate, is committed to job creation and supporting small businesses by keeping taxes low, and has prioritized hiring more police officers and road repair while on the city council.  He also serves as Director of the Midway City Sanitary District and works for the State Board of Equalization where he helps small businesses navigate through the bureaucracy of the IRS and Franchise Tax Board.

To learn more about Diep and his campaign, please visit: www.TylerDiep.com

###

(Cue my usual Nguyen disclaimer: I am not related to Garden Grove Councilwoman Thu-Ha Nguyen, Garden Grove School Board Member Dina Nguyen, Garden Grove School Board Member Lan Quoc Nguyen, Westminster School Board Member Frances Nguyen, or Westminster School Board Member Khanh Nguyen.  The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Posted in 72nd Assembly District, Westminster | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

CD-45: Walters vs. Raths – The Rematch

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 6, 2016

Congresswoman Mimi Walters (R-Irvine) and Councilman Greg Raths (R-Mission Viejo)

Congresswoman Mimi Walters (R-Irvine) and Councilman Greg Raths (R-Mission Viejo)

2016 seems to be shaping up to be the year of the rematch.  Yesterday, I wrote about Assemblyman Don Wagner challenging Senator John Moorlach in the 2016 Primary Election for the 37th State Senate District after Moorlach prevailed over Wagner in the 2015 Special Election for that same seat.

On the same day that Wagner submitted his application for an OC GOP endorsement for the 37th Senate District (nearly a month after Moorlach submitted his application), Councilman Greg Raths (R-Mission Viejo) pulled papers to challenge Congresswoman Mimi Walters (R-Irvine) in the 2016 Primary Election for the 45th Congressional District after Walters prevailed over Raths in the 2014 Primary Election for that same seat.

(Ironically, it was the election of Walters to the 45th Congressional District that caused the 2015 Special Election for the 37th Senate District that sent Moorlach to the Senate.)

In the 2014 election, the four candidates were California State Senator Mimi Walters (R), Educator/Businessman Drew E. Leavens (D), Retired Marine Colonel Greg Raths (R), and Buena Park Library District Trustee Al Salehi (NPP).

(Why Salehi ran for Congress in a district that does not include his city of residence of Buena Park, I’ll never understand.  I wrote extensively on Salehi’s perennial bid for offices in my post on his latest bid for office in the February 9 Special Election for North Orange County Community College District.)

Walters easily defeated Leavens, Raths, and Salehi:

Vote Count Percentage
MIMI WALTERS (R) 39,631 45.1%
DREW E. LEAVENS (D) 24,721 28.1%
GREG RATHS (R) 21,284 24.2%
AL SALEHI (NPP) 2,317 2.6%

In the 2014 election, Walters spent nearly $1,200,000 while Raths spent $267,000.  Leavens spent $2,150, yet Salehi didn’t even open a committee.

As of September 30, Walters had more than $616,000 cash-on-hand in her Congressional campaign account.  Raths has no cash on hand, as he had terminated his Congressional committee in May and has not started a new one.

After losing the 2014 Primary Election for the 45th Congressional District, Raths successfully won a seat on the Mission Viejo City Council in the 2014 General Election.

Consequently, while the 2014 Primary Election for the 45th Congressional District featured State Senator Walters vs. Retired Colonel Raths, the 2016 Primary Election has Congresswoman Walters vs. Councilman Raths.

In the 2012 Primary, then-Congressman John Campbell (R) still captured 51% of the vote against Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang (D), who got 33%, and Small Business Owner John Webb (R), who got 16%. Campbell opted not to seek re-election in 2014, thereby creating the opening for Walters to run.  Kang termed out as Mayor of Irvine in 2012 and is now running against Assemblywoman Ling-Ling Chang (R-Diamond Bar) for the 29th Senate District, which does not include any portion of the City of Irvine.

Posted in 45th Congressional District, Mission Viejo | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 17 Comments »

SD-37: Moorlach vs. Wagner – The Rematch

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 5, 2016

Senator John M. W. Moorlach and Assemblyman Donald P. Wagner

Senator John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa) and Assemblyman Donald P. Wagner (R-Irvine)

Rumors had swirled for months that Assemblyman Don Wagner (R-Irvine) would challenge Senator John Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa) for the 37th Senate District this year.  Former Supervisor Moorlach had defeated Assemblyman Wagner for the seat just ten months ago by a margin of 50.3%-44.0% in the March 2015 special election to complete the unexpired term of State Senator Mimi Walters, who had been elected to the United States House of Representatives.

Wagner has taken a very public step toward challenging Moorlach to a rematch in 2016.  On December 7, Moorlach had submitted his application to the Republican Party of Orange County for an endorsement for re-election for the 37th Senate District. Then, yesterday, January 4, Wagner submitted his application for an OC GOP endorsement for the 37th Senate District.

Both applications will be considered at the OC GOP Central Committee meeting on January 18.  The OC GOP states: “All Republican candidates running for election in [the 37th Senate District] are invited to participate in a candidate forum that will be held during the January Central Committee meeting. The meeting will begin at 7 PM.”

The format will be: “Each candidate will be allowed three (3) minutes to present why they should be endorsed. And, in keeping with tradition, we will allow three speakers in favor and three opposed to speak for one (1) minute. The candidate will be allowed one (1) minute to address any issues raised by opponents of the endorsement.”

Otherwise, it should be a quiet January 18 Central Committee meeting, with Congresswoman Mimi Walters, Congressman Dana Rohrabacher, Congressman Darrell Issa, Assemblyman Bill Brough, and Assemblyman Matthew Harper all filed applications for endorsement of their respective re-elections in time for the January 4 application deadline for OC GOP endorsements for partisan seats in the Primary Election. Assemblywoman Ling-Ling Chang‘s bid for the 29th Senate District and Assemblywoman Young Kim‘s bid for re-election were already endorsed in December.

The OC GOP endorsement application deadline for nonpartisan seats in the Primary Election (County Supervisors and County Board of Education Trustees) is January 11, though Supervisor Andrew Do‘s bid for re-election was already endorsed in December.

An incumbent holding partisan office has not been denied the OC GOP endorsement since John Campbell fell one vote short of the 2/3 needed for an endorsement when John Webb challenged him (two of OC Political’s earliest posts).

In the March 2015 special election for the 37th Senate District, Wagner spent $493,000 while Moorlach spent $276,000.  Despite this significant funding differential of nearly 2:1, Moorlach still won the Senate seat.

As of the June 30 campaign finance reports, Moorlach had $31,299.92 in cash-on-hand across two committees (Moorlach for Senate 2015 and Moorlach for Senate 2016) while Wagner had $84,416.71 cash-on-hand across three committees (Wagner for Senate 2016, Wagner for Assembly 2014, Wagner for Attorney General 2018).

Presumably, Democrat Louise Stewardson, who ran as a write-in candidate in March 2015 will file for the ballot in June 2016.

No word on if the hilarious Naz Namazi, “Naz, N-A-Z, Naz…a legal immigrant,” will be running again to challenge “a liar and a hypocrite” for this seat.

Winner by City in the 37th Senate District Special Election

The ever-popular “Winner by city or unincorporated area in the 37th Senate District Special Election” map.  See this map in its original glory here. (Note: the sizes of Moorlach’s and Wagner’s heads have nothing to do with their vote margin in that community, it’s just the geographic size of the community that did it.  Laguna Woods and Laguna Beach are very oddly-shaped cities.)

Posted in 37th Senate District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

AD-73: Petrilla Has Double Cash-on-Hand of All Opponents Combined, Bryson & Brough Nearly Tied, Glaab Deep in Debt

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 27, 2014

I’m pretty much going to quote my opening paragraph from my January post on the AD-73 race because it serves to remind us of this chaotic year:

Next up in OC Political’s ongoing in-depth analysis of campaign finance figures is the race for the 73rd Assembly District seat being vacated by the termed out Diane Harkey, who is running for the Board of Equalization seat being vacated by the termed out Michelle Steel, who is running for the Second District Supervisor’s seat being vacated by the termed out John Moorlach, who is running for the 45th Congressional District seat being vacated by John Campbell, who voluntarily retired.  (That incredibly long sentence demonstrates a recurring theme in 2014…)

Republican AD-73 Candidates: Jesse Petrilla, Anna Bryson, Bill Brough, Paul Glaab

The four Republican AD-73 Candidates: Jesse Petrilla, Anna Bryson, Bill Brough, Paul Glaab

I’ll also quote the second paragraph from my January post:

There are four announced Republican candidates in AD-73: Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Jesse Petrilla, Dana Point Councilman Bill Brough, Capistrano Unified School District Trustee Anna Bryson, and former Laguna Niguel Councilman Paul Glaab.  One Democrat, Attorney and Irvine Valley College Professor Wendy Gabriella, has announced for the race.  Gabriella’s entry in the race virtually guarantees a Republican vs. Democrat general election, with the Republican winning handily and spareing South County Republicans an AD-73 general election intraparty bloodbath.

What can I say?  Conditions in AD-73 have been fairly stable.  The announced candidates are exactly the same candidates who qualified for the ballot.  Now on to the latest numbers, which really haven’t moved all that much…

Petrilla’s fundraising slowed in this reporting period ($15,824, second behind Bryson), but his dominant lead ($104,839) from 2013 maintained his position as the AD-73 candidate with the most money raised, with $120,663.  He was the only candidate who raised more than he spent in this reporting period with his $15,228 in expenditures. This brings his total overall spending to just $23,410, and his tight-fisted spending has him actually fourth in expenditures.  Consequently, he has nearly $100,000 cash-on-hand, once loans and unpaid bills are accounted for, with $97,577, to be exact.  Republican Bryson, Republican Brough, and Democrat Gabriella have a combined $49,561 in that category (about half Petrilla’s figure), though adding the deeply-in-debt Republican Glaab leaves Petrilla’s opponents at a combined $14,550, which would mean Republican Petrilla has almost seven times the combined cash-on-hand of his opponents.  It’s not unreasonable to leave Glaab out and note that Petrilla has twice the combined cash-on-hand of his non-indebted opponents.  The biggest question is: why is Petrilla hoarding his money?  I think the most logical conclusion is that Petrilla plans to dominate the AD-73 direct mail.

Bryson raised more than her opponents this reporting period with $29,822, but she spent more than she took in, spending $32,514.  She also has $14,279 in unpaid bills.  Plus, she still lags behind Petrilla in overall funds raised.  She spent half her money on her consultants.  It’s not that her consultants are charging exorbitant rates – it’s simply that she has numerous consultants.  She’s raised $114,965 overall but already spent $75,224; after accounting for that $14,279 in unpaid bills, Bryson is left with just $25,463 cash on hand, assuming she has no plans to spend her $69,600 loan.  Her consulting fees are quickly eating up her once-sizeable warchest.

Bob Dole with AD-73 Candidate Bill Brough

Bob Dole with AD-73 Candidate Bill Brough earlier this month

Brough raised $10,297 this reporting period, bringing his total funds raised to $61,240.  He spent $18,084 this reporting period, bringing his total spending to $39,744.  He has a healthy mix of spending, with no one area jumping out to dominate his spending. He remains the candidate with the smallest loans, by far, at just $100.  He, Petrilla, and Gabriella have no unpaid bills.  Among AD-73 candidates, Brough definitely has the most interesting campaign contributor, former U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole, who was the Republican nominee for President in 1996.  The Brough campaign had announced the Dole endorsement two weeks ago, and Dole gave Brough’s campaign $500.

Glaab raised $8,899 this reporting period, bringing his total funds raised from other people to $36,985.  However, he also donated $22,000 to his campaign in 2013 (not loaned, but truly donated), bringing his total funds raised up to $58,985.  He spent $40,053 this reporting period, bringing his total expenditures to $90,072, the highest level of expenditures of any candidate in AD-73.  While Glaab has a mix of spending, he has spent a fortune on slate mailers.  With the least raised and most spent among the Republican candidates (even after accounting for his self-contribution of $22,000), Glaab is deeply in debt, to the tune of $35,011.  He’s clearly banking on the slate mailer strategy for this race, but he didn’t secure all the slates.

On slates, in my January post, I said, “Glaab secured the vast majority of slate mailers.  There are five major slate vendors, with Glaab grabbing three of them, including the two vendors who produce the most slate mailers.  Bryson grabbed one vendor.  It appears the fifth vendor is up for grabs still.”  Well, Brough has since nabbed the fifth vendor.  Slate mailers are now divided in this race, with three candidates nabbing the major slates, though Glaab has the lion’s share.

Nothing new regarding loans or candidate self-funding, so here’s the paragraph from my January post on that:

Here at OC Political, we’ve railed repeatedly against the $100,000 paper tiger loans.  (These loans of $100,000 or less are frequently used by candidates to artificially inflate their warchest numbers.  While OC Political has many posts about those, this one is probably the seminal post on the issue.)  I will give Paul Glaab credit for actually spending his own money. Glaab put his money where his mouth is, and donated $22,000 to his own campaign beyond the $100,000 loan he made to his campaign.  State campaign finance regulations put that $22,000 forever out of Glaab’s reach; it is nonrefundable, and he must spend it on the campaign.  Glaab was well aware of this regulation and properly reported the $22,000 as a contribution, not a loan.

Democrat Wendy Gabriella raised $4,592 this reporting period, bringing her total funds raised to $16,703.  She spent $9,507 this reporting period, bringing her total expenditures to $14,089.  (Interestingly, top fundraiser Petrilla’s spending is so low that his expenditure levels are closer to dead-last fundraiser Gabriella’s than to any of his Republican opponents.)  With no unpaid bills and a candidate loan of $1,196, Gabriella’s cash-on-hand is $2,614.

Here’s the chart:

Candidate 2013
Contrib.
1/1/14-
3/17/14
Contrib.
Candidate
Contrib.
Total
Contrib.
Candidate
Loans
Unpaid
Bills
2013
Expend.
1/1/14-
3/17/14
Expend.
Total
Expend.
Cash-
on-Hand
(COH)
COH
Minus
Unpaid
Bills
COH
Minus
Unpaid
Bills &
Loans
Petrilla $104,839 $15,824 $0 $120,663 $3,500 $0 $8,182 $15,228 $23,410 $101,077 $101,077 $97,577
Bryson $85,143 $29,822 $0 $114,965 $69,600 $14,279 $42,710 $32,514 $75,224 $109,342 $95,063 $25,463
Brough $50,943 $10,297 $0 $61,240 $100 $0 $21,660 $18,084 $39,744 $21,584 $21,584 $21,484
Glaab $28,086 $8,899 $22,000 $58,985 $100,000 $3,925 $50,019 $40,053 $90,072 $68,914 $64,989 -($35,011)
Gabriella $12,111 $4,592 $0 $16,703 $1,196 $0 $4,582 $9,507 $14,089 $5,693 $5,693 $2,614
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

Campaign finance reports for January 1-March 17, 2014 were due Monday.

Posted in 73rd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

AD-73: Petrilla Maintains Fundraising Lead, Brough Net Positive, Bryson Spending Big, Glaab in Debt

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 5, 2014

Next up in OC Political’s ongoing in-depth analysis of campaign finance figures is the race for the 73rd Assembly District seat being vacated by the termed out Diane Harkey, who is running for the Board of Equalization seat being vacated by the termed out Michelle Steel, who is running for the Second District Supervisor’s seat being vacated by the termed out John Moorlach, who is running for the 45th Congressional District seat being vacated by John Campbell, who voluntarily retired.  (That incredibly long sentence demonstrates a recurring theme in 2014.  Between AD-55, AD-73, AD-74, SD-34, CD-45, the Second Supervisorial District, the Fifth Supervisorial District, and possibly SD-36, there isn’t a single place in Orange County without a major competitive race at some point this year.)

Republican AD-73 Candidates: Jesse Petrilla, Anna Bryson, Bill Brough, Paul Glaab

Republican AD-73 Candidates: Jesse Petrilla, Anna Bryson, Bill Brough, Paul Glaab

There are four announced Republican candidates in AD-73: Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Jesse Petrilla, Dana Point Councilman Bill Brough, Capistrano Unified School District Trustee Anna Bryson, and former Laguna Niguel Councilman Paul Glaab.  One Democrat, Attorney and Irvine Valley College Professor Wendy Gabriella, has announced for the race.  Gabriella’s entry in the race virtually guarantees a Republican vs. Democrat general election, with the Republican winning handily and spares South County Republicans an AD-73 general election intraparty bloodbath.

For a walk down memory lane, here’s what I wrote six months ago after the last set of campaign finance numbers came out in AD-73.  On to the latest numbers…

Jesse Petrilla held on to his fundraising lead, but more notably, his massive lead from the previous fundraising period combined with his tight-fisted approach to spending has given him more cash-on-hand than all of his opponents combined.  He raised $69,230 the prior period and $35,609 this latest period, giving him a total raised of $104,839.  He spent a remarkably low $8,182 in both periods combined.  Once loans and unpaid bills are accounted for, Petrilla’s $96,593 cash on hand exceeds that of all of his opponents combined.

While not as dramatic as Petrilla, Bill Brough is steadily building his warchest and is spending less than he’s raising, thereby producing a net positive.  Brough raised $50,943, with $30,899 from the prior period and $20,044 this period while spending $16,345 this period (and $5,315 the prior period), leaving him with $29,270 cash on hand once loans are accounted for (Brough was the sole candidate who had no unpaid bills in AD-73.)

Anna Bryson spent slightly more than she took in during the latest reporting period in the second half of 2013, so she’s eaten into the money she raised in the prior reporting period from the first half of 2013.  Fees dominated her spending.  She paid a consulting firm, two fundraising firms, and a treasurer.  Bryson raised $85,143, with $53,052 the prior period and $32,091 in the latest period while spending $32,140 in this period (and $10,570 the prior period), leaving her with $37,433 cash on hand once loans and unpaid bills are accounted for.

Here at OC Political, we’ve railed repeatedly against the $100,000 paper tiger loans.  (These loans of $100,000 or less are frequently used by candidates to artificially inflate their warchest numbers.  While OC Political has many posts about those, this one is probably the seminal post on the issue.)  I will give Paul Glaab credit for actually spending his own money.  Glaab put his money where his mouth is, and donated $22,000 to his own campaign beyond the $100,000 loan he made to his campaign.  State campaign finance regulations put that $22,000 forever out of Glaab’s reach; it is nonrefundable, and he must spend it on the campaign.  Glaab was well aware of this regulation and properly reported the $22,000 as a contribution, not a loan.

Glaab secured the vast majority of slate mailers.  There are five major slate vendors, with Glaab grabbing three of them, including the two vendors who produce the most slate mailers.  Bryson grabbed one vendor.  It appears the fifth vendor is up for grabs still.

However, this massive spending has left Glaab as the only candidate in debt.

Glaab raised $13,337 this period and $14,749 the prior period, for a total of $28,086.  Adding his own $22,000, that brings that figure to $50,086, which is still the lowest amount raised of any of the four candidates.  He spent a negligible $470 the prior period and $49,549 in this latest period.  His aggregate $50,019 was the most spent of any of the four candidates.  With the least raised and most spent, Glaab has heavily relied on his self-funding.  Once unpaid bills and loans are accounted for, Glaab is $6,617 in debt.

Here’s the chart:

Candidate 1/1/13-6/30/13
Contributions
7/1/13-12/31/13
Contributions
Candidate
Contributions
Candidate
Loans
Unpaid
Bills
1/1/13-6/30/13
Expenditures
7/1/13-12/31/13
Expenditures
Cash on Hand
(COH)
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
& Loans
Petrilla $69,230 $35,609 $0 $3,500 $388 $3,622 $4,560 $100,481 $100,093 $96,593
Bryson $53,052 $32,091 $0 $69,600 $5,000 $10,570 $32,140 $112,033 $107,033 $37,433
Brough $30,899 $20,044 $0 $100 $0 $5,315 $16,345 $29,370 $29,370 $29,270
Glaab $14,749 $13,337 $22,000 $100,000 $6,685 $470 $49,549 $100,068 $93,383 -($6,617)
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

Campaign finance reports for January 1-June 30, 2013 were due last week.

Posted in 73rd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

OC Clerk-Recorder Hugh Nguyen Fundraiser, Thursday, October 3

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on September 24, 2013

This came over the wire from the Hugh Nguyen for Clerk-Recorder 2014 campaign…

Hugh Nguyen

Posted in Orange County | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Steel Endorses Harkey as BOE Successor

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on September 6, 2013

This came over the wire yesterday from the Diane Harkey for Board of Equalization campaign…

For Immediate Release

Thursday, September 5, 2013

In Case You Missed It:

Harkey Gains Major Endorsement with Support of BOE Incumbent Michelle Steel

(Sacramento, CA) – Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel announced Monday her support for Diane Harkey to replace her on the Board.  Steel is retiring due to term limits and is running for Orange County Supervisor.  Michelle Steel joins a long list of Harkey supporters, including:

  • Congressman John Campbell
  • State Senator Mimi Walters
  • Former Senator Marian Bergeson
  • Assembly Member Curt Hagman
  • Assembly Member Alan Mansoor
  • Assembly Member Don Wagner
  • Orange Co. District Attorney Tony Rackaukus
  • Orange County Sheriff Sandra Hutchens
  • Orange County Clerk-Recorder Hugh Nguyen
  • Orange County Supervisor Janet Nguyen
  • Orange County Supervisor Todd Spitzer
  • Orange County Supervisor Pat Bates
  • Orange County Supervisor Shawn Nelson
  • Orange County Supervisor Bill Campbell (ret)
  • Anaheim Mayor Tom Tait
  • Anaheim City Councilwoman Lucille Kring
  • Anaheim City Councilwoman Kris Murray
  • Irvine Mayor Steven Choi
  • Irvine Mayor Pro Tem Jeff Lalloway
  • Irvine City Councilwoman Christina Shea
  • Huntington Beach Mayor Pro Tem Matt Harper
  • Huntington Beach City Councilman Joe Carchio
  • Mission Viejo Mayor Rhonda Reardon
  • Mission Viejo Mayor Pro Tem Patricia Kelley
  • Mission Viejo City Councilman Dave Leckness
  • Mission Viejo City Councilman Frank Ury
  • Laguna Niguel Mayor Robert Ming
  • Laguna Niguel Mayor Pro Tem Linda Lindholm
  • Laguna Niguel City Councilwoman Laurie Davies
  • Former Laguna Niguel Mayor Gary Capata
  • Aliso Viejo Mayor Carmen Cave
  • Aliso Viejo Mayor Pro Tem Phil Tsunoda
  • Aliso Viejo City Council Mike Munzing
  • San Juan Capistrano Mayor John Taylor
  • San Juan Cap. Mayor Pro Tem Sam Allevato
  • San Juan Capistrano Councilman Larry Kramer
  • Dana Point City Councilman Bill Brough
  • Dana Point City Councilman Carlos Olvera
  • Stanton Mayor David Shawver
  • Tustin Mayor Al Murray
  • Tustin City Councilman John Nielsen
  • Tustin City Councilman Allan Bernstein
  • Rancho Santa Margarita Mayor Anthony Beall
  • Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Steve Baric
  • Fountain Valley Mayor Mark McCurdy
  • Laguna Hills Mayor Pro Tem Andrew Blount
  • Laguna Hills City Councilman Randall Bressette
  • Laguna Hills City Councilwoman Melody Carruth
  • Laguna Hills City Councilman Dore Gilbert
  • San Clemente Mayor Pro Tem Tim Brown
  • San Clemente City Councilwoman Lori Donchak
  • San Clemente City Councilman Jim Evert
  • Orange City Councilman Fred Whitaker

(Partial List)

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Poll Results in CD 45: Spitzer Is The Frontrunner

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on July 2, 2013

This morning Jon Fleischman posted the results of a poll conducted by Lewis Consulting Group, that showed the favorables/unfavorables of some potential candidates along with results of some hypothetical matches. The results were not what I expected to see, with what appears to be a wide open race amongst a few front-runners. I talked to John Lewis this morning after the poll was released and he had this to say, “The goal with this poll was to try and best replicate predicted 2014 turnout. This is clearly a wide open race and results will largely depend on who decides to run.”

200px-Spitzer_portrait_wiki
You can view the entire poll by clicking CD45-Crosstab-Tables-I.

Lets start by taking a look at the raw numbers for favorables vs unfavorables for each candidate in the running, in order to use a single number to represent favorability, I am taking the percentage that represents favorables and subtracting the percentage that represents unfavorables in order to create a net favorability ranking system. Here are the rankings based 0n this net favorability:

(R) Todd Spitzer +25% (OC Supervisor)
(R) Ed Royce +20% (Congressman)
(D) Sukhee Kang +13% (Former Irvine Mayor)
(R) Mimi Walter +13% (State Senator)
(D) Steve Young +12%  (Perennial Dem Candidate)
(R) Gary Miller +10% (Congressman)
(R) Don Wagner +10% (State Assemblyman)
(R) Scott Baugh +8% (Chairman of OCGOP)
(D) Beth Krom +4%
(D) Barack Obama -28% (This was simply his approval rating, I am fairly certain he has no intention of seeking this seat)

The fact that Todd Spitzer had the highest net favorability was not especially surprising to me because a lot of my non-political friends are aware of some of his public safety initiatives that he has worked on. I am most surprised by Steve Young having a 12% net favorability rating, although my instinct states that perhaps some football fans got confused on this one.

This data does not also take into account that some other potential candidates are looming out there, including but not limited to Steven Choi (Current Irvine Mayor), John Moorlach (OC Supervisor), and some of the wealthy private sector individuals that could self-fund a campaign. On the Dem side I hear rumblings of Irvine Councilmember Larry Agran jumping into this race and I would argue that he would be the Democrat most likely to advance to November.

My favorite part of the poll was the hypothetical match-ups that were polled including the following scenarios:

Mimi Walters vs. Gary Miller vs. Beth Krom

Walters 25.0%
Krom 21.3%
Miller 21.0%

This matchup is interesting because Walters is definitely in this race and I have heard from more than a couple of insiders that Gary Miller is strongly considering a move back to Orange County to run for this seat due to the fact that his current seat is one that could very easily go blue in 2016. A 4% gap is not very hard to overcome especially when you consider margin of error of any poll.

Mimi Walters vs. Ed Royce vs. Beth Krom

Royce 25.7%
Krom 22.3%
Walters 20.3%

I am not surprised that Royce is leading in this matchup due to the fact that he is a sitting Congressman who has higher name ID than Gary Miller in Orange County. The surprising part is that Walters is within striking distance of him and could beat him in a head-to-head matchup.

Mimi Walters vs. Todd Spitzer vs. Beth Krom

Spitzer 29.0%
Krom 22.0%
Walters 19.7%

Wow!!!!! This result on its own shows me that Todd Spitzer can have this seat if he wants it.

Mimi Walters vs. Ed Royce vs. Beth Krom

Walters 26.7%
Krom 23.0%
Wagner 15.7%

Don Wagner is my personal favorite of all the candidates considered in this poll but these numbers look to be a steep hill to climb in a hypothetical matchup that includes Walters.

Mimi Walters vs. Steve Young vs. Beth Krom vs. Sukhee Kang

Walters 41.0%
Krom 10.3%
Young 8.7%
Kang 7.3%

These numbers show that a Democrat winning this seat is highly unlikely. I believe that Larry Agran would be able to finish ahead of all of the rest of these folks in CD 45 on the Dem side.

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Transcript Of John Campbell Retirement Announcement

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 28, 2013

As reported here on OC Political yesterday, John Campbell announced his retirement on Hugh Hewitt’s radio show. We wanted to be able to expand on this coverage for our readers and Hugh Hewitt has made it easy by posting a transcript of the interview on his website. Click here to go to the website. The transcript went as follows:

HH: June 27th, 2013, Congressman John Campbell is in studio with me at 34 minutes after the hour live. He’s back on the West Coast, and about to make a little bit of news, Congressman Campbell. Tell people what you told me.

JC: Okay, let me, wait a minute, is my microphone…there we are, hearing the feedback. You know, Hugh, eight years ago almost to the day, I’m not sure exactly what day it was, but it was in June, eight years ago in 2005, I sat at this microphone with you and announced that I was going to run for Congress for the 48th, which I’d originally said I wasn’t going to do, and said on this show about a week before, and then you and others changed my mind and I ran, and am now in my fifth term in Congress. Well today, I’m reversing the bus a little bit. And today, I’m announcing that I will not seek reelection for a sixth term in 2014, and that in fact, I’m going to retire from Congress at the end of this term in another 18 months.

HH: Now when you told me this a couple of days ago, I was absolutely shocked, because you’re the chairman of a powerful subcommittee on a very powerful committee, you are 58 years old, you are in good health, but you have great reasons, and they are reasons that go to living a genuinely significant, happy and good life. Would you explain those to people?

JC: Okay, and yeah, you know, you could say that I haven’t peaked in Congress, and I probably haven’t. I think I’m fairly well-regarded on both sides of the aisle and so forth there, and that you know, many people leave after they’ve hit the crest and now they’re coming down, or they’ve been a chairman and now they’re not anymore or whatever. But you know, it’s never been about the power, the influence or the position for me. It’s been about serving, and it’s been about using the experience that I have, and whatever talents God gave me, to make a positive contribution. And I’ve been in full-time elected office, or I will have been by the end of this term, 14 years, including my time in the state legislature in California, which is full time as well. And I’m not a career politician. I’ve never intended to be a career politician, and so this was always something I intended to do for a while. And 14 years, first of all, and by the way, I’ve had three different offices representing four different districts, and won 16 straight elections over that 14 year career, but…primary and general elections. But it’s just time…

HH: Undefeated, untied as we say in the business.

JC: There we go. Just, it’s kind of like a USC football team.

HH: No, not really, because you’re not on probation.

JC: Yeah, yeah. Oh, no. Wait, okay, anyway, you know, it’s just time for me. You know, when…I’ve got various personal issues. I’ve actually missed some time in Congress in the last month, and will probably miss a little more, because I do have some issues that might require surgeries in my knee and my hip.

HH: They’re not chronic, they’re not, when you get older…

JC: They’re not chronic, they’re not bad.

HH: You’re not dying.

JC: No, but…

HH: You’re going to be bothering me for years with USC crap. I’m not worried, I’m not weepy.

JC: No, no, there’s nothing like that, but there’s some things like that that enter in, your kids, your family, various different things. I still have a business outside of Congress and so forth. And if I’m not able and there to give absolutely everything to this job, then I should, then I need to think about other things.

HH: Now you know what my reaction was, and I’ve known this for two days, is that this is an extraordinarily healthy thing that I wish many other Beltway people will listen to, that it’s not the end of the world to give up your job in D.C. where you have power and influence to go do something significant with the rest of your life. You’ve been very successful in business. You’re very much revered in your community, you have a wonderful family. The Captivating Mrs. Campbell is great, I know your boys. Your business, whatever you choose, we’ll talk about what you’re going to do next later. But how healthy, and this is just so rare. I mean, what did the leadership say when you told them? They must be stunned.

JC: Yeah, I told them yesterday, and I think they were surprised, but they understand, and they understood I’m not a lifer. I’ve never been, and although Generalissimo Duane is always talking about my going Beltway, I can safely say I never did that, and that my life was never in Washington. My life was in California, and here and now, increasingly in Kansas. But it’s, yeah, there are a number of my colleagues who can’t imagine walking away from the title, from the prestige, from the power, from the fawning that people who are interested in your voting card, and what you might be able to do with it, that they give you. But that’s never been what it’s about for me. It’s always been about just using the talents God gave me.

HH: Public service.

JC: And this is, by the way, as a Christian that you know that I am, this is something that involved a great deal of prayer over the last few months.

HH: How absolutely corny.

End of segment.

More on this story next week.

Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

BREAKING NEWS: Congressman John Campbell Retiring

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 27, 2013

On the Hugh Hewitt show just moments ago Congressman John Campbell announced that he will not seek re-election in 2014. To make it clear, this is not because of any type of scandal or wrongdoing, it appears he is simply ready to go back to private life (rather refreshing to see). This is quite a surprise to me and I am sure many other people. More on this story over the next few days as it becomes available. Best wishes from our blog to Congressman Campbell and his staff (who are always a pleasure to work with).

UPDATE 4:19 PM- Flash Report Editor Jon Fleischman just tweeted that he spoke with Senator Mimi Walters and she intends to seek the seat being vacated by Congressman Campbell in 2014.

UPDATE 6:00 PM- Forgive my Twitter style posting but this all happened as I was with a client showing a property. Here is the statement released by Congressman Campbell about his retirement:

“I have decided that I will not seek re-election to represent California’s 45th Congressional district in 2014. At the end of this term, I will have spent 14 years serving in full-time, elected politics. I am not nor did I ever intend to be a career politician. I am ready to begin a new chapter in my life. It has been an honor and a privilege to represent the district where my wife and I have raised our children. I look forward to continuing that representation for the balance of the 113th Congress. I have been blessed to have the unwavering support of my family, friends, and the residents of Orange County throughout these years, and for that I will remain forever grateful. My passion for the conservative issues for which I have fought so vocally over that span has not waned. But in the future, I will continue the fight for more freedom and a less authoritarian government as a private citizen rather than elected official. Drive fast and live free.”

Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: , | 8 Comments »