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OC’s Top 10 Stories From the November 2018 General Election

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 7, 2018

Here’s a quick look at the top 10 stories of the 2018 general election in Orange County:

  1. OC Congressional Delegation Now Consists of Five Democrats and Two Republicans
    In a political earthquake for Orange County, the 4-3 Republican majority in OC’s Congressional delegation is now a 5-2 Democratic majority.  The three senior members of the delegation are leaving Congress: Dana Rohrabacher (elected 1988), Ed Royce (elected 1992), and Darrell Issa (elected 2000); all three are Republicans and only Royce will be succeeded by a member of his own party.  While Royce and Issa both announced their retirements earlier this year, Rohrabacher has been defeated for re-election by businessman Harley Rouda (D-Laguna Beach).  Royce will be succeeded by former Assemblywoman Young Kim (R-Fullerton) while Issa will be succeeded by Clean Energy Advocate Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano).  While Board of Equalization Member Diane Harkey (R-Dana Point) defeated Levin in Orange County, her undoing was Levin’s strong lead in San Diego County.  The three most senior members of the OC delegation are now Linda Sanchez (elected 2002), Alan Lowenthal (elected 2012), and Mimi Walters (elected 2014).  In a House of Representatives ruled by seniority, the OC delegation is severely lacking in seniority.
  2. Democrats’ Assembly Supermajority Hinges on Whether Matthew Harper Survives
    Orange County’s 5-2 Republican delegation could fall to being a 4-3 Republican delegation if Assemblyman Matthew Harper (R-Huntington Beach) is unable to hold his narrow lead over Small Business Owner Cottie Petrie-Norris (D-Laguna Beach).  Harper’s defeat would produce a Democratic supermajority in the State Assembly to go along with the Democratic supermajority in the State Senate (Democrats captured a Republican-held State Senate seat in the Central Valley last night).  Harper leads Petrie-Norris by 672 votes out of 120,164 votes cast, or 0.6%.  Late absentee ballots and provisional ballots have not yet been counted and most certainly could flip the lead.
  3. District Attorney-Elect Todd Spitzer
    For what appears to be the first time in Orange County history, a sitting District Attorney has been defeated for re-election.  20-Year District Attorney Tony Rackauckas (R) has been defeated for re-election by Orange County Supervisor Todd Spitzer (R).  Spitzer’s election also creates a special election in the Third Supervisorial District.  Spitzer’s victory was so sweeping that he leads in 27 of Orange County’s 34 cities, winning everywhere except Little Saigon and the northern beach cities.
  4. Tim Shaw Leads, But Fourth District Supervisor is Too Close to Call
    La Habra Mayor Tim Shaw (R) leads Fullerton Mayor Doug Chaffee (D) by just 1,610 votes out of 87,404 votes cast.  Chaffee won the Fourth District’s three largest cities, Anaheim, Fullerton, and Buena Park, but Shaw ran up the total in his wins in the three smallest cities, La Habra, Placentia, and Brea, particularly with the landslide in his own city of La Habra.  There are still an enormous number of late absentee ballots and provisional ballots that could still change the result in this seat.
  5. Assemblyman-Elect Tyler Diep
    In the race to succeed Assemblyman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach), Westminster Councilman Tyler Diep (R) defeated FreeConferenceCall.com CEO Josh Lowenthal (D-Huntington Beach) to retain this Assembly seat for Republicans.  Diep’s concurrent service with Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Garden Grove) makes California the first state ever with two Vietnamese-Americans serving in the State Legislature at the same time.
  6. Mayor-Elect Harry Sidhu and the New Anaheim Council Majority
    Anaheim voters delivered a new majority on their City Council.  Former Anaheim Councilman Harry Sidhu (R) was elected Mayor of Anaheim last night.  Businessman Trevor O’Neil (R) won the open Council seat in Anaheim Hills.  Former Councilman Jordan Brandman (D) defeated Councilman James Vanderbilt (R) in West Anaheim’s District 2 seat.  Councilman Jose Moreno (D) won re-election in Central Anaheim’s District 3 seat.
  7. Newport Beach Ousts Two Incumbents, Ending Council Majority
    While Councilmembers Diane Dixon (R) and Kevin Muldoon (R) won landslide re-elections, Councilman Scott Peotter (R) was defeated by Businesswoman Joy Brenner (R), and Councilman Duffy Duffield (R) is narrowly losing to Businessman Tim Stoaks (R).  With Peotter’s defeat and Duffield’s probable defeat, Newport Beach’s Council majority comes to an end.
  8. Lake Forest Sweep
    In a sweeping rebuke of incivility, Lake Forest voters elected Neeki Moatazedi (R) decisively over Sonny Morper (R) and elected former Councilman Mark Tettemer (R) to oust Mayor Jim Gardner (R) from office.  Moatazedi and Tettemer join Councilman Scott Voigts (R), who was unopposed for re-election when his opponent failed to qualify for the ballot, and Councilman Dwight Robinson (R) in a new 4-1 supermajority of civility.  Just ten months after the recall of Councilman Drew Hamilton (R) in which former Councilman Adam Nick’s allies won a 3-2 majority on the City Council, the voters have not only reversed the Nick majority but reduced down to 1 seat (which will be up for election in 2020).  A key turning point in the campaign came when Nick’s side sent a mailer so disgusting that multiple TV channels covered it, for it was so sexist that it called Moatazedi a “bikini model” and made up three fictional criminal record numbers with a photo of an inmate falsely implying that it was Moatazedi.  That mailer backfired into not only the media coverage but also campaign money and independent expenditures to oust Nick’s allies from the Council.
  9. Irvine’s New Councilmembers
    For the first time in 14 years, no incumbent Irvine Councilmember sought re-election (though Mayor Don Wagner (R) was re-elected last night).  Planning Commissioner Anthony Kuo (R) is the top vote getter while Businesswoman Farrah Khan (D) and Transportation Commissioner Carrie O’Malley (R) are neck-and-neck for the second Council seat, with Khan ahead by 389 votes, or 0.5%.
  10. Santa Ana Councilwoman-Elect Ceci Iglesias
    For the first time in a decade, Santa Ana citizens voted to elect a Republican to their City Council, with School Board Member Ceci Iglesias winning the Ward 6 seat by a decisive margin.  (The last Republican on the Santa Ana Council, Carlos Bustamante, was re-elected in 2008 to a term ending in 2012.)  Iglesias’s election creates a vacancy on the Santa Ana Unified School District Board, which will be filled by appointment.

Honorable Mention

  • There’s a New Sheriff in Town
    While it was widely expected that Undersheriff Don Barnes (R) would be elected Sheriff of Orange County, it’s always a major news story when there’s a new Sheriff.  Barnes decisively defeated Los Angeles County District Attorney Investigator Duke Nguyen (D) with 57% of the vote.

Upcoming News Story Due to Last Night’s Results

  • Race for Third District Supervisor
    With the election of Supervisor Todd Spitzer as District Attorney of Orange County, an early 2019 special election will take place to fill the remaining two years on Spitzer’s Supervisorial term.  Retiring Anaheim Councilwoman Kris Murray (R) and Businessman Andy Thorburn (D) have already announced for Spitzer’s Supervisorial seat.  Thorburn spent millions in his unsuccessful bid in the primary election for the 39th Congressional District.  Other early rumored candidates include Irvine Mayor Don Wagner (R), former Irvine Mayor Sukhee Kang (D), and Yorba Linda Councilwoman Peggy Huang (R).

(In the interest of full disclosure, Western American, the company that owns OC Political, serves as the political consultants for Sidhu, O’Neil, Voigts, Moatazedi, and Tettemer, as well as doing secondary consultant work for Kuo.  Additionally, this blogger is Spitzer’s alternate on the Central Committee of the Republican Party of Orange County.)

Posted in 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 4th Supervisorial District, 72nd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Anaheim, Irvine, Lake Forest, Newport Beach, Orange County District Attorney's Office, Orange County Sheriff, Santa Ana Unified School District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

AD-72 Fundraising: Diep $455K, Lowenthal $313K, Haskin $13K

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 1, 2018

72nd Assembly District Candidates: Tyler Diep (R-Westminster), Greg Haskin (R-Fountain Valley), Josh Lowenthal (D-Huntington Beach)

72nd Assembly District Candidates:
Tyler Diep (R-Westminster), Greg Haskin (R-Fountain Valley), and Josh Lowenthal (D-Huntington Beach)

With Assemblyman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) leaving the Legislature to run for Governor, Democrats are making a play for the 72nd Assembly District seat that Allen is vacating.  Campaign finance reports for all candidates were released yesterday for the period ending December 31, 2017.  Josh Lowenthal (D-Huntington Beach), son of Congressman Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach) and former Assemblywoman Bonnie Lowenthal (D-Long Beach), raised $313,247 in three months since entering the race in October.

Vice Mayor Tyler Diep (R-Westminster) has ample resources to battle Lowenthal and defend the seat for Republicans, as Diep brought in $455,140 in spendable dollars for this Assembly account in five months since entering the race in July, raising $206,223 and transferring $248,917 from his City Council account.  However, one of Diep’s challenges will be determining how much to expend to battle Pepsi Government Affairs Senior Director Greg Haskin (R-Fountain Valley), which would drain precious campaign dollars that Diep could otherwise save for his campaign to keep the seat in Republican hands against the Lowenthal bid to seize the seat for Democrats.

A former Executive Director of the Orange County Republican Party and District Director to former Congressman Chris Cox (R-Newport Beach), Haskin raised $12,770 in two months since entering the race in mid-November.  Haskin also loaned his campaign $100,000.  OC Political has long separated $100,000 loans from contributions and transfers, with this five-year-old article giving our most comprehensive explanation of why candidates use $100,000 loans to inflate campaign finance figures, and OC Political has even been quoted by the San Gabriel Valley Tribune regarding these loans.

Diep spent $18,848 with a $350 bill to be paid, leaving him with $435,942 cash-on-hand.  Lowenthal spent $41,204 with two bills to be paid totaling $6,900, leaving him with $265,143 cash-on-hand.  Haskin spent $12,324 with a $100,000 loan, leaving him with $446 cash-on-hand.  If we credit his loan to his cash-on-hand, Haskin’s $100,446 would still be less than half of Lowenthal’s cash-on-hand and less than a quarter of Diep’s cash-on-hand.  If we don’t credit the loan, Diep has 977 times Haskin’s cash-on-hand while Lowenthal has 594 times Haskin’s cash-on-hand.

Lowenthal, the ex-brother-in-law of former Councilwoman Suja Lowenthal (D-Long Beach) and the brother of Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge Daniel Lowenthal, is the President of FreeConferenceCall.com.  FreeConferenceCall.com is a prolific service: I myself was on a conference call yesterday that used a FreeConferenceCall.com number and am scheduled to be on a conference call today also using a FreeConferenceCall.com.  These two conference calls were both set up by other people, both calls only have Republican participants, and the two calls have completely different participants other than me.

There is a 36% overlap between CD-47 and AD-72, with 85,000 of AD-72’s 239,000 voters living in the overlapping area.  With Congressman Alan Lowenthal on the ballot at the same time as Josh Lowenthal’s Assembly candidacy, expect an unprecedented amount of re-election mail and other expenditures for Congressman Lowenthal in an effort to boost his son’s name ID.  Congressman Lowenthal has already given the maximum contribution to his son’s campaign under law, and the Congressman’s campaign has also given the maximum contribution to his son’s campaign.  By spending a significant amount of his Congressional campaign money in the overlap with the Assembly District, Congressman Lowenthal has the ability to use an unclosable loophole to help his son (you can’t ban the man from running for re-election to block him from helping his son since they have the same last name).

Not to be forgotten is Republicans hold only a 4.5% registration advantage over Democrats in AD-72.  Diep’s cross-over ability in attracting votes from Vietnamese Democrats would help buffer that small registration advantage.  In addition to his name ID from the Westminster City Council, Diep is also a prolific presence on Vietnamese language television as an on-air television personality.

Diep has built his own name ID as a City Councilman and through his work on Vietnamese language television.  Lowenthal has built-in name ID, courtesy of his father, the sitting Congressman running for re-election.  Haskin will need to spend significant sums of money to build his own name ID in the face of his two better-known opponents.

Of Haskin’s $12,770, he only raised 9% from his district: a single $1,200 contribution from his wife.  In fact, including his wife’s contribution, he only raised 22% from Orange County ($2,850) donors.  More starkly, 60% of Haskin’s fundraising ($7,600) has actually come from out-of-state donors.  While OC Political rarely notes the geographical origins on contributions, when a candidate only has 12 donors, it makes it rather easy to do a geographic analysis.

A closer look at Lowenthal’s campaign contributions reveals this frightening fact for Republicans: Lowenthal hasn’t raised any union money yet.

For visual learners:

Candidate Contributions Transfers Loans Unpaid
Bills		 Expenditures Cash on Hand
(COH)		 COH Minus
Unpaid Bills		 COH Minus
Unpaid Bills and Loans
Tyler Diep (R) $206,223 $248,917 $0 $350 $18,848 $436,292 $435,942 $435,942
Josh Lowenthal (D) $313,247 $0 $0 $6,900 $41,204 $272,043 $265,143 $265,143
Greg Haskin (R) $12,770 $0 $100,000 $0 $12,324 $100,446 $100,446 $446
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

 

Posted in 72nd Assembly District, Westminster | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

AD-74: Land of Small Warchests

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 3, 2014

Well, campaign finance figures are out, and OC Political will be doing our signature in-depth slicing and dicing of campaign finance numbers in the coming days.  Last week, we had several candidates send over press releases touting their fundraising prowess.  Some even asked us explicitly to post their releases.  We opted not to post any of those until we could examine the numbers ourselves.  Indeed, six months ago, I admonished readers to check the numbers against the press release claims in a post on AD-55.  Some candidates are spinning wildly, but there are other times when candidates’ numbers actually gel well with their press releases.  The only way to figure out which is the case is to look at the numbers.

So on to the numbers…

First up is the race for AD-74 to replace Allan Mansoor, who is leaving the Assembly to run for the 2nd District Supervisor’s seat, being vacated by the termed out John Moorlach.  AD-74 consists of Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, Newport Beach, the southern half of Huntington Beach, and portions of Irvine.  There are four declared Republican candidates: Huntington Beach Mayor Matt Harper, Newport Beach Councilman Keith Curry, Assemblyman Travis Allen’s District Director Emanuel Patrascu, and H&R Block Franchise Associate Karina Onofre.

AD-74 Candidates Matt Harper, Keith Curry, Emanuel Patrascu, and Karina Onofre

AD-74 Candidates Matt Harper, Keith Curry, Emanuel Patrascu, and Karina Onofre

The numbers in AD-74 show this is anybody’s race.  None of the candidates have particularly large warchests.  Multiple candidates in races for other offices have raised more than all the AD-74 candidates combined.  Curry and Patracu have the largest warchests (or perhaps “least small warchests” would be more appropriate).  Patrascu is ahead of Curry by a few thousand dollars, but Curry is raising money at a faster pace.  Patrascu had more donors but Curry’s donors gave larger amounts on average.  Harper is in debt, and Onofre didn’t reach the threshold to trigger electronic filing.  (Actually, Harper didn’t reach the threshold to trigger electronic filing either, but he still opted to file an electronic report.)

Huntington Beach Mayor Matt Harper entered the race the third week of November.  He reported a $4,100 max-out contribution from Karen Harper on December 7.  Matt Harper loaned his own campaign $2,000 on Christmas Eve.

Newport Beach Councilman Keith Curry entered the race the first week of December.  On December 6, he transferred 20 contributions totaling $6,490 from his City Council account to his Assembly account.  During the rest of December, he raised $20,705 from 22 donors, plus another $495 from small unitemized donations.  His donations included $4,100 max-out contributions from the Orange County Business Council‘s BIZPAC and the campaign committee of former Senator Tom Harman.  He also reported $1,000 from Long Beach Councilman Gary DeLong (who was the unsuccessful Republican nominee in CD-47 in 2012 against Alan Lowenthal), $500 from former Newport Beach Mayor Tod Ridgeway, and $250 from Curry’s council colleague, Nancy Gardner.  If Curry can continue his pace of $21,200 per month, he will quickly amass the largest warchest in AD-74.  However, many candidates find their fundraising slows down after an initial burst after their campaigns launch when they pick up their low-hanging fruit donors; can Curry defy the odds?

Emanuel Patrascu, who is Assemblyman Travis Allen‘s District Director and was formerly on the staff of Senator Tom Harman, announced his official November 18 kick-off in September but had been raising money prior to his kick-off.  He reported $25,079 from 41 donors, plus another $1,266 from small unitemized donations.  His donations included $4,100 max-out contributions from businessmen Kieu Hoang and Buddy Molway.  He also reported $500 from Harman’s campaign committee in October and $2,000 in prior reporting periods, for a total of $2,500 from Tom Harman‘s committee.  He also reported $1,000 from former California Republican Party Chairman Mike Schroeder, $250 from the former Assembly campaign committee of Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Steve Baric (the CRP’s Immediate Past Vice Chair), and $150 from the campaign committee of Westminster Mayor Tri Ta.  Patrascu loaned himself $5,000 on New Year’s Eve, $1,500 in June, and $18,700 in 2012.  He raised $17,600 during the same period that Curry raised $21,200 (Patrascu raised $2,750 after his campaign kick-off but before Curry entered the race).  If Patrascu can continue his pace of $17,600 per month, then he will be able to build a sizeable warchest. As I said with Curry, however, many candidates find their fundraising slows down after an initial burst after their campaigns launch when they pick up their low-hanging fruit donors; can Patrascu defy the odds?

Businesswoman Karina Onofre, who previously ran unsuccessfully for Santa Ana City Council in 2012, entered the race Thanksgiving week.  She did not file her campaign finance report electronically, as she did not reach the $25,000 threshold to require electronic filing.

For visual learners:

Candidate 1/1/13-6/30/13
Contributions		 7/1/13-12/31/13
Contributions		 Transfers Candidate
Loans		 Unpaid
Bills		 Expenditures Cash on Hand
(COH)		 COH Minus
Unpaid Bills		 COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
& Loans
Harper N/A $4,100 $0 $2,000 $1,927 $3,916 $2,185 $258 -($1,742)
Curry N/A $21,200 $6,490 $100,000 $0 $681 $127,009 $127,009 $27,009
Patrascu $8,950 $26,345 $0 $26,700 $551 $2,083 $59,942 $59,391 $32,691
Onofre N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

Campaign finance reports for July 1-December 31, 2013 were due last week.

By the way, OC Political probably won’t detail individual donors in most races; it’s just that AD-74 had so few donors, it was doable.  In other races, the data is more voluminous.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments »

OC Reps. Have Rank To Demand Benghazi Answers

Posted by Erich Breitenbucher on May 14, 2013

When I requested blog privileges, I really thought I was going to focus on education and waste in California state government.  But these Benghazi hearings have got me so upset I just felt like I needed to start with the hot topic of the day.  Especially because it’s not being treated like the hot topic of the day. Let’s face it.  It is really the most important issue we’ve had in decades.  And here is why, Hillary.  It matters because if people were incompetent and Navy SEALs ambassadors died – we need those mistakes corrected. If security was ignored to achieve political goals and lies were told to cover up the mistakes – those people need to be thrown out of government for good.

And here in Orange County we have several members of Congress who are in a unique position to get answers on many of these questions.

Chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Republican Congressman Darrell Issa

San Clemente, Dana Point, San Juan Capistrano, Coto de Caza and Ladera Ranch Congressman Darrell Issa is, of course, the central Republican figure in the investigation as the Chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Previously, Issa served on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and the Foreign Affairs Committee.  Issa knows his stuff.

Loretta-Sanchez-w_VeteransRanking Member on the House Armed Services Committee Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee, Democrat Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez

Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez is always happy to tell you how she’s the highest ranking female of the Armed Services Committee. Loretta Sanchez is not only on the House Armed Services Committee, she is the Ranking Member on the House Armed Services Committee Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee and she is on the House Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Strategic Forces.  Loretta Sanchez is also on the Committee on Homeland Security and on the Committee on Homeland Security Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence.  Rep. Sanchez brags that she founded and chairs the Congressional Caucus on Women in the Military and serves on the Congressional Military Families Caucus.  She couldn’t be in a better position to get real answers on who is responsible for the Benghazi cover-up.

Alan-Lowenthal-w_VeteransHouse Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade member, Democrat Congressman Alan Lowenthal

Congressman Alan Lowenthal is a member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, where he sits on the Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats.  He also is a member of the Veterans Jobs Caucus.  Every veteran that shows up for an Alan Lowenthal job fair should demand answers for their fellow Americans killed and put in harms way at the Benghazi consulate on September 11, 2012.

Senior member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs and Chairman of the Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia and Emerging Threats, Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher

Congressman Rohrabacher is a senior member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. He serves as Chairman of the Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia and Emerging Threats and as a member of the Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and the Global Environment.

Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Republican Congressman Ed Royce

Representative Ed Royce became the Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs in January 2013.  He is serving his 11th term in Congress, representing Southern California’s 39th district.  As a longtime active member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Royce is known for his knowledge of many different regions of the world and analytical foresight into key U.S. foreign policy issues. Immediately prior to becoming Chairman of the Committee, Royce served as Chairman of the Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade and a member of the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific.

OC Congressman John Campbell is known more for his expertise on finance than National Security, but if any funding is blocked for departments that are stonewalling on Benghazi answers (hypothetically of course,) I’m sure Campbell wouldn’t hesitate to participate as a Republican member of the House Committee on the Budget.

And lastly for Orange County, is Loretta Sanchez’s sister, Linda.  No one trusts Democrat Congresswoman Linda Sanchez near anything important, but she could show an interest as a member of the Congressional Victim’s Rights Caucus.

And as we look to our neighbors in Riverside County, I’m sure we can count on diligent support of our military from Congressman Ken Calvert.  But how will freshman Democrat Congressmen Mark Takano and Raul Ruiz react?  Will they help deflect attention from the real questions or will they demand an open and honest government that lives up to its hype as the “most transparent?”  Let’s look at the Riverside County Congressional representatives’ committee memberships.

Riverside County Republican Congressman Ken Calvert

Rep. Calvert serves on the House Committee on Appropriations and is a member of the Subcommittees on Defense; Interior and the Environment; and Energy and Water.  Rep. Calvert also serves on the House Committee on the Budget.

Riverside County Democrat Congressman Mark Takano

Not even one year into his first year in Congress, Mark Takano serves on the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs and his website says that “Securing our nation from foreign threats, including terrorism, must be a priority of Congress. It is critical that our military personnel have the equipment, resources, and support they need to protect this country.”  Does 20 hours for jet fuel to send in a rescue team sound to you like we “have the equipment, resources, and support they need to protect this country” ?  Me neither.

and lastly…

Riverside County Freshman Democrat Raul Ruiz

Dr. Ruiz currently serves on the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs.  Maybe as a doctor himself, Ruiz can find an interest in answering if local Democrat Congressmen even care that our Ambassador died in a Benghazi hospital controlled by Al Queda? (And that they used him as bait to try and kill more Americans?)

Even though the Los Angeles/Orange County local television coverage of the Benghazi hearings has been as lacking and nonexistent as the national coverage of the Benghazi hearing, these lies are eventually going to exposed to the public – as long as we keep asking questions.  The questions are too big and the consequences have been too horrible to ignore forever.  We will really see which of the Democrats are liberals which of the Democrats are just partisan liars.  I hope to track on this blog the lies told by the Orange County Democrat Members of Congress to cover-up Benghazi.  I also hope to track on this blog which Democrats are willing to be honest about mistakes made and inconvenient truths that need to be told.

How long does it take to get jet fuel in southern Europe or North Africa? And what efforts were made to ask other counties for assistance? Did Hillary change the security level at the Benghazi consulate?  If the CIA talking points on the day of the attack, had only an attack and Al Queda mentioned, but no protest in Benghazi or video, why did both President Obama and Hillary tell Pat Smith (the mother of Sean Smith, killed in Benghazi) 3 days later that the reason for the attack was the video?Image

Pat Smith told FoxNews on May 13 that Obama, Hillary, Panetta and Susan Rice all hugged her and told her “Face to face, nose to nose” that the video was to blame for he son’s death.  We now know, that the President, Hillary, Panetta  and Rice all knew that this was not true – and they lied to the face of a mother who had lost her son.  Every political activist that wants to honor the memory of Sean Smith in the appropriate way that the President, Hillary, Panetta  and Rice will not, by finding out the truth, need to pull out your iPhone at the next community coffee or town hall and ask one of these tough questions.  Post the answers on YouTube.  Eventually Democrats will have to admit so many facts that are damaging to the above mentioned 4 officials that they will start to denounce the actions and call for their removal.  Or the local Democrats will lie and cover up and the mountain of evidence on YouTube and social media will force them to go down with the Obama/Hillary ship on this series of poor security decisions and lies.

But if Jay Carney thinks we will forget about this story as just old news, I can assure you that we will NEVER FORGET.  Let’s roll.  We have some tracking to do…

 ###

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Forgot Some Electeds: Party Affiliation Part 2

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on March 23, 2013

A reader just sent me a new database that included some elected officials that I forgot about the first time around. These offices would be Congress, Senate, and Assembly which I cannot believe I forgot. Take a look at the short but informative database of these elected officials that represent at least a portion of Orange County.

IntraPartyElephantDonkey

Here you go:

Office Name Party Year

Congress
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 38th DISTRICT Linda Sanchez (D) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 39th DISTRICT Ed Royce (R) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 45th DISTRICT John Campbell (R) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 46th DISTRICT Loretta Sanchez (D) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 47th DISTRICT Alan Lowenthal (D) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 48th DISTRICT Dana Rohrabacher (R) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 49th DISTRICT Darrell Issa (R) 2014

Senate
STATE SENATE 29th DISTRICT Bob Huff (R) 2016
STATE SENATE 30th DISTRICT Ron Calderon (D) 2014
STATE SENATE 34th DISTRICT Lou Correa (D) 2014
STATE SENATE 36th DISTRICT Mark Wyland (R) 2014
STATE SENATE 37th DISTRICT Mimi Walters (R) 2016

Assembly
STATE ASSEMBLY 55th DISTRICT Curt Hagman (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 65th DISTRICT Sharon Quirk-Silva (D) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 68th DISTRICT Don Wagner (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 69th DISTRICT Tom Daly (D) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 72nd DISTRICT Travis Allen (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 73rd DISTRICT Diane Harkey (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 74th DISTRICT Allan Mansoor (R) 2014

Posted in 29th Senate District, 34th Senate District, 36th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, State Assembly, State Senate | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

OC’s New Republican Congressmen Vote 3-1 Against Fiscal Cliff Deal; Old Ones Voted 3-2 in Favor

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 3, 2013

In a far-too-brief summary of the fiscal cliff deal: income taxes increased on people making more than $400,000 (couples over $450,000), tax deductions phase out for individuals making more than $250,000 (couples over $300,000), payroll taxes increased on people making more than $50,000, the death tax was increased from 35% for estates over $5.12 million to 40% for estates over $5 million, the Earned Income Tax Credit was expanded, college tuition tax credits were extended for five years, and federal unemployment benefits were extended for a year.

The vote on the fiscal cliff provides an interesting illustration of the impact of redistricting on Orange County’s Congressional representation.

fiscalcliffolddist

How the Representatives of the Old Congressional Districts Voted on the Fiscal Cliff Deal

fiscalcliffvotes

How the Representatives of the New Congressional Districts Voted on the Fiscal Cliff Deal

The old OC delegation voted 5-2 in favor of the fiscal cliff deal while the new OC delegation voted 4-3 against the fiscal cliff deal, with the new 8th member not yet seated.

More interestingly, the old districts had Republicans 3-2 in favor of the deal with the Democrats at 1-0 while the new districts have Republicans 3-1 against the deal with the Democrats at 2-0.

Ed Royce (R-Fullerton), Linda Sanchez (D-Cerritos), and Loretta Sanchez (D-Santa Ana) voted in favor of the fiscal cliff deal.

John Campbell (R-Irvine), Darrell Issa (R-Vista), and Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) voted against the fiscal cliff deal.

(Newly Elected Congressman Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach) will not take take office until later this morning.)

Congressmen Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar) and Ken Calvert (R-Corona) represented portions of Orange County until yesterday but now represent exclusively Inland Empire districts.  Miller and Calvert both voted for the fiscal cliff deal.

Posted in 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, National | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 General Election Predictions: 47th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 11, 2012

This seat is going to be the most competitive in Orange County, even though the largest part of the district is Long Beach. Take a look at the map with statistics:

Thank you to Meridian-Pacific for the use of their maps.

As you can see there is a 10% registration advantage for Democrats. However, DTS voters will lean more conservatively in this race. On top of the DTS voters the Orange County cities have a higher turnout level than the Long Beach portion of the district. In other words you have a very competitive seat on your hands.

The results from the primary election also show that it will be competitive, as Alan Lowenthal (D) ran  just slightly ahead of Gary DeLong (R):

United States Representative; District 47

  • Alan Lowenthal, Democratic ………. 27,356 votes 33.8%
  • Gary Delong, Republican ………. 23,831 votes 29.4%
  • Steven T. Kuykendall, Republican ………. 8,769 votes 10.8%
  • Peter Mathews, Democratic ………. 7,951 votes 9.8%
  • Steve Foley, Republican ………. 5,848 votes 7.2%
  • Sanford W. Kahn, Republican ………. 2,563 votes 3.2%
  • Usha Shah, Democratic ………. 2,350 votes 2.9%
  • Jay Shah, Democratic ………. 2,273 votes 2.8%

Recently Probolsky research conducted a poll on behalf of the DeLong campaign that showed a good chance of a close race that slightly leans towards DeLong. You can see the memo that went out here. These results show that DeLong is in a slight lead for the seat.

Alan Lowenthal has just under $217,000 after the primary and Gary DeLong has about a $100,000 lead with just under $317,000 after the primary.

This race is extremely close in about every aspect from voter registration, fundraising, and campaigning (so far).

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Gary DeLong

Posted in 47th Congressional District | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

Tuesday’s Most Important Election

Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 30, 2012

Wisconsin State CapitolSix days from now is Tuesday, June 5, Election Day.

What is the most important election that day?  Is it the CD-47 contest between Alan Lowenthal, Gary DeLong, and Steve Kuykendall?  Is it the Troy Edgar–Long Pham–Travis Allen fight in AD-72?  Is it AD-69’s Tom Daly vs. Michele Martinez vs. Jose Moreno vs. Julio Perez vs. Paco Barragan battle?  Is it the Third Supervisorial District brawl between Todd Spitzer and Deborah Pauly?

No, the most important election on Tuesday lies 2,000 miles northeast of Orange County.

In Wisconsin, June 5 is Election Day in the recall of Republican Governor Scott Walker.

Labor unions launched the recall after Walker gained the passage of legislation that restricted (but did not eliminate) collective bargaining (requiring annual re-certification of unions via annual member elections, limitations of collective bargaining to salaries rather than benefits) and increased public employee contributions to benefits and pensions, among other things.

This recall election marks a watershed moment in which the power of public employee unions faces off against those who seek to curb the legal prerogatives of those unions.

Wisconsin has an interesting recall procedure.  In California, the question of whether we should remove someone from office is one item on the ballot, with voters casting a “Yes” or “No” vote, and then a separate item on the ballot are all the recall replacement candidates, with the incumbent ineligible to run in the replacement vote.  In Wisconsin, there is no separate question of whether someone is removed: there is a single item in which candidates (including the incumbent) run against each other.  Effectively, when you initiate a recall in Wisconsin, you’re simply calling for an early election for the office, much like a parliamentary by-election or snap election; whereas in California, we vote whether or not to keep the incumbent and separately vote on a replacement.

There was a recall primary on May 8, with Walker winning 97% of the votes in the Republican primary and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett winning 58% of the votes in the Democratic primary (this is a rematch of the 2010 election, as Walker defeated Barrett in that election); the recall general election is this coming Tuesday, June 5.

Both the Real Clear Politics average of polls and the Huffington Post average of polls show Walker leading Barrett by a few percentage points.

A Walker victory will embolden politicians across the country seeking to curb the power of labor unions while a Barrett victory will be a warning from the labor unions that politicians should be wary of trying to reduce the legal prerogatives of public employee unions and trying to reduce the benefits enjoyed by public employees.

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CD-47: DeLong Raised More & Has More Cash on Hand Than All Opponents Combined; Lowenthal Second; Kuykendall Distant Third

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 18, 2012

Gary DeLong, Steve Kuykendall, and Alan Lowenthal

Councilman Gary DeLong (R-Long Beach), former U.S. Congressman Steve Kuykendall (R-Long Beach), and State Senator Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach)

In the CD-47 race, the lion’s share of the money has definitely been raised/held/spent by Councilman Gary DeLong (R-Long Beach).  DeLong raised $572,501, spent $168,209, and has $404,292 cash on hand (with only $6,000 in unpaid bills).  What’s even more stunning is that 97% of the money DeLong raised was from individuals, with only 3% coming from PACs.

State Senator Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach) raised $378,409, spent $95,119, and has $283,291 cash on hand (with $13,149 in unpaid bills).  59% of the money Lowenthal raised was from individuals, with 39% coming from PACs.

PACs only contributed to Lowenthal and DeLong but Lowenthal received almost 9 times what DeLong did in PAC money, yet the strength of DeLong’s contributions from individuals powered him well past Lowenthal.

Former Congressman Steve Kuykendall (R-Long Beach) raised $103,968 (excluding his $20,000 personal loan), spent $98,552, and has $5,416 cash on hand (excluding his $20,000 personal loan, and with $14,890 in unpaid bills).

For visual learners:

Candidate Contributions Candidate
Loans		 Unpaid
Bills		 Expenditures Cash on
Hand
(COH)		 COH Minus
Unpaid Bills		 COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
& Loans
DeLong (R) $572,501 $0 $6,000 $168,209 $404,292 $398,292 $398,292
Lowenthal (D) $378,409 $0 $13,149 $95,119 $283,291 $270,142 $270,142
Kuykendall (R) $103,968 $20,000 $14,890 $98,552 $5,416 -$9,474 -$29,474
 .

(Of the minor candidates, Republican Sanford Kahn gave his own campaign $9,350, spent $8,636, and has $713 cash on hand while Democrat Peter Mathews raised $120 [excluding a $50 contribution from himself], spent $104, and has $110 cash on hand.  Democrat Usha Shah reported no money raised and no cash on hand.  Democrat Jay Shah [Usha’s husband] and Republican Steve Foley did not report any activity.)

DeLong’s $572,501 was 54% of all money raised in the CD-47 race, and his $404,292 cash on hand is 58% of all cash on hand in the CD-47 race.  DeLong’s $168,209 in spending was 45% of all money spent so far in the CD-47 race, with 27% spent by Kuykendall, 26% spent by Lowenthal, and 2% spent by the minor candidates.

DeLong is the clearly the winner in the money race by a substantial margin, and will likely advance beyond June, setting up a November showdown between DeLong and Lowenthal.  The question for November is: how much money will the NRCC and DCCC drop on this race?

Posted in 47th Congressional District, Fundraising | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 47th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 12, 2012

Today seems like a good day to go ahead and finish up handicapping the rest of the Congressional races. We will start with what I expect to be the most competitive race in both June and November. Sadly, no viable Orange County candidate is running for this seat, and for whatever reason political people in Orange County don’t seem to care much about this race. It is important to note when looking at the map below that even though Laura Richardson lives in this district she has opted to run in a different seat.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat will be an absolute dog fight. I expect resources from Washington D.C. on both sides to be poured in, after the primary is over.

With Laura Richardson opting to run for a different seat it leaves this one wide open. Democrats have around a 10 point registration advantage. However, Long Beach which is the largest part of this district has lower turnout than Orange County. Add in a conservative leaning DTS crowd (20.5% registration) and you get a fun race to watch.

Republican Steve Cooley did get more votes than Kamala Harris in this race and Proposition 8 did pass. The Democrats have had an advantage here though in both 200 and 2010.

The primary is already a circus with 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans all vying to make it into the top 2. Based on registration it is fairly obvious that one candidate from each party will emerge.

Candidates include:

State Senator Alan Lowenthal who will have the ability to run a strong campaign having gained experience running for legislature. He is running as a Democrat.

Peter Mathews a College Professor/Educator who is running as a Democrat.

Then comes the curious case of Dr. Jay Shah and Usha Shah who are both running for this seat. Normally it is not shocking to see people with the same last name running for an office, but these two actually live in the same house. If anybody has an explanation on this, I would love to hear what it is.

Long Beach City Councilman Gary DeLong is running, but he chose not to use his elected title as his ballot designation. He is listed as a Republican.

Former Congressman Steve Kuykendall is looking to make a return to D.C. having thrown his hat into the ring.

Steve Foley is the only Orange County candidate running for this seat, but he also made a huge mistake by putting no ballot designation down.

Sanford Kahn is the last Republican running for this seat and he is listed as a Small Business Owner on the ballot (similar to what DeLong used as a designation).

The factors at play- Alan Lowenthal is the most viable Democrat through high Name ID, more campaign experience, and best ballot designation. The Shah’s will split the vote and Mathews although a very brought guy will likely not be able to jump ahead of Lowenthal.

Of the 4 Republicans running, Foley is automatically in the category of having no shot because he did not put down a ballot designation and Kahn does not have enough Name ID to get into the top-tier.

This second slot will clearly come down to DeLong and Kuykendall. Kuykendall was in Congress, has name ID, and clearly knows how to run a race. DeLong is currently on the Long Beach City Council but he made the mistake of not putting his elected title on the ballot.

In the end I think that Kuykendall has simply been out of the game for 10 years and his name ID will be trumped by DeLong who is currently on the Long Beach City Council.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Alan Lowenthal & Gary DeLong

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