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SD-34: Long Pham Officially in the Race

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 21, 2013

In case you weren’t following every word of my live blog, former Orange County Board of Education Trustee Long Pham is officially jumping into the SD-34 race.

Just last week our blogger, Dominus, covered SD-34 and speculated on the possibility of a Pham candidacy. Other likely SD-34 Republican candidates are Supervisor Janet Nguyen and former Assemblyman Jim Silva. Rancho Santiago Community College District Trustee and former Assemblyman Jose Solorio will likely represent the Democrats, though Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh may jump in.

More on this in the coming weeks and months ahead, but it’s clear the SD-34 games have begun.

Posted in 34th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

SD 34 Watch: Could be a Crowded Field

Posted by Dominus on January 14, 2013

Even though the 2012 Presidential Election just ended a few months ago, many candidates are already putting the pieces together for the next campaign.

In 2014, I suspect there will only be two competitive state legislative races in Orange County: SD 34 (Correa) and AD 65 (Quirk-Silva).  In this post, I will focus on SD 34 and save AD 65 for another day.

By any standard measures, SD 34 is a swing district.  Democrats outnumbered Republicans by less than a percentage point.  The district voted heavily in favor of Proposition 8.  The incumbent Lou Correa is termed-out in 2014.

Here is my analysis of this race:

REPUBLICAN FIELD

The most active candidate on the Republican side is Supervisor Janet Nguyen.  She started plotting for this seat back in 2011 when she endorsed Long Beach Councilman Gary DeLong for Congress over Los Alamitos Councilman Troy Edgar in exchange for the support of LA Supervisor Don Knabe.Janet-Nguyen-and-Baby-Tom-300x227

You may wonder why is the support of Don Knabe important? It is because the new SD 34 have a sizable portion of Los Angeles.

Janet also lucked-out when then-campaign treasurer Kindee Durkee cleaned out the accounts of Senator Lou Correa and Assemblyman Jose Solorio.  One of these two politicians were supposed to challenge Janet in 2012.  Instead, the 1st District Supervisor faced a token candidate and didn’t have to spend a whole lot of money for her re-election.  Janet could be sitting on $300,000 – $350,000 right now.

Another Republican candidate in this race is former Assemblyman Jim Silva.  I say potential because Jim is still wishy-washy about it.  Sure he is sitting on top of $400,000 but the idea of running in a brutal primary then go through a general election doesn’t sit well with Jim.  If anything, Jim wants to be drafted by the GOP establishment to run.

Jim may end up running after all, depending on the field.

Aside from these two Republicans, we have another one thinking about it – Long Pham.  The former Orange County Board of Education member and nuclear engineer who spent $100,000 of his personal money on a failed assembly campaign is talking to people about a potential run for SD 34.  Long have loyal followers in the Vietnamese community.  He just need to hire a better campaign consultant if he is to make another run at public office.

DEMOCRATIC FIELD

The front runner on the Democratic side is Jose Solorio, a trustee of the Rancho Santiago Community College District.  As a government consultant, Jose will have plenty of time and flexibility to campaign in this district.  I’m not sure how much money he is sitting on but financial resources should not be a problem if Jose is the only Democrat in the race.  Money from Sacramento will just flow into this war chest.Jose-Solorio-in-Sacramento

Jose’s best bet is to make it into the general November election where more Democrats are likely to vote.  Currently, I see a big problem for Jose – the person he is trying to succeed.

It is in Lou Correa’s interest to have Janet win the 34 SD in 2014 so that it will trigger a special election in 2015 for her supervisorial seat.  Lou and his staff will work behind the scene to help Janet (they can’t do it publicly).

The other Democrat in this race is former Garden Grove planning commissioner Joe Dovinh.  Joe likes to run.  Does he have a chance of winning? Sure, if he can make it through the primary with a Republican opponent.  It’s going to take a lot for Joe not to run and Janet knows it.

Later this week I will write about AD 65 and the likely Republican contender for this seat against incumbent Democrat Sharon Quirk-Silva.

Posted in 34th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

2012 General Election Predictions: 72nd Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 19, 2012

THis race is the one I am predicting will be the closest and most heated in Orange County. Surprisingly 2 Republicans advanced from the June election to make this race as interesting as it is. The district is somewhat comparable to a more coastal version of Allan Mansoor’s old assembly district when it was AD 68:

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

Party affiliation is meaningless in this race because they are both Republicans but it will be interesting to see which candidate targets the 31.6% of registered Democrats first. It is also interesting to note that Huntington Beach is the largest part of the district which is where Allen is from. Los Alamitos is the smallest city on the district which is where Edgar is from.

The results in June are inconclusive because it was close enough to where anybody could end up a winner in November. Here are the June results:

Member of the State Assembly; District 72

  • Troy Edgar, Republican ………. 18,060 votes 28.0%
  • Travis Allen, Republican ………. 12,851 votes 19.9%
  • Joe Dovinh, Democratic ………. 12,432 votes 19.3%
  • Long Pham, Republican ………. 12,409 votes 19.2%
  • Albert Ayala, Democratic ………. 8,816 votes 13.7%

It is pretty amazing to see who close Allen, Dovinh, and Pham were to that 2nd place slot. Looking it the results it appears that Edgar has an advantage going into november which would mean that Travis Allen needs to raise his favorability amongst voters before voting in November.

Fundraising is the kicker for me, as Edgar has just under $100,000 in his account after the primary and Allen has just over $10,000 in his account. This can change with campaigning which will mean that this race will be extremely close. My prediction is based on the campaign as of right now and I reserve the right to change my opinion on this one:

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Troy Edgar

Posted in 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

AD-69: Anaheim Saved Republican Moreno, Pushed Democrat Perez into Third, Averting Dem vs. Dem Slugfest in November

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 28, 2012

Last week, I blogged two city-by-city breakdowns of the results in two Assembly races.

First up was AD-72, which showed Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) and Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) the top two in four cities, OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley) and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove) the top two in two cities, and Pham and Edgar the top two in Garden Grove.

Next up was AD-74, which showed Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R-Costa Mesa) and Businessman Robert Rush (D-Newport Beach) alternating as first and second place in each city in the district, with the sole exception being Newport Beach, where Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R-Newport Beach) slipped in ahead of Rush but behind Mansoor.

Up today is the final OC Assembly race that featured more than two candidates: AD-69.  First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:

Orange County Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly (D) 10,939 39.2%
Eligibility Technician Jose “Joe” Moreno (R) 5,980 21.4%
Union Leader Julio Perez (D) 5,738 20.6%
Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D) 4,651 16.7%
Businessman Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D) 605 2.2%

So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the four cities of AD-69: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Garden Grove, and Orange.

(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics.  Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-69.  The bulk of Santa Ana and a sliver of Garden Grove are in AD-69 while a sliver of Santa Ana and the bulk of Garden Grove are in AD-72.  A sliver of Orange is in AD-69 but the bulk of it is in AD-68.  Anaheim is divided into nearly even thirds, with the western 1/3 in AD-65, the central 1/3 in AD-69, and the eastern 1/3 in AD-68.)

Daly was consistently first in each city while Barragan was consistently fifth.  Moreno, Perez, and Martinez swapped around for the second, third, and fourth place positions.  The humongous Daly head is indicative of his first place finish in all four cities; taking his head out of the individual cities allows us to more closely examine second and third place, which actually differed in the four cities.  In each individual city, the candidate with the larger head came in second while the candidate with the smaller head came in third:

  • Moreno came in second with Perez third in Anaheim and Garden Grove.
  • Perez came in second with Martinez third in Santa Ana.
  • Moreno came in second with Martinez third in Orange.

Here’s their vote totals broken down visually by city:

Since Daly came in first by such a large margin (indeed, Daly’s Santa Ana total nearly bested everyone else’s districtwide total) and Barragan fell to fifth by such a large margin (Daly’s Garden Grove total outpaced Barragan’s districtwide total), let’s take a closer look with just Moreno, Perez, and Martinez, who were closer together in the results:

It’s clear that without Anaheim, Perez would have made it into the top two and on to November, rather than Moreno.  Moreno’s final vote total was 5,980 while Perez’s was 5,738.  Without Anaheim, Moreno would have had 4,105 while Perez would have had 4,308. (Anaheim gave Moreno 1,875 votes and Perez 1,430 votes, a 445-vote margin).  Perez lost districtwide to Moreno by 242 votes; without Anaheim, Moreno would have lost to Perez by 203 votes.

Anaheim was a crucial stronghold for Moreno, as he came in fourth in Santa Ana but second in Anaheim.

However, with so few cities in AD-69, and Santa Ana such a strong majority of that district (59% of registered voters in AD-69 live in Santa Ana, and 60% of ballots cast in AD-69 were from Santa Ana), it would be more useful to break this result down into regions smaller than cities.  Luckily for this purpose, the City of Santa Ana has Council wards.

Here, the larger head came in first while the smaller head came in second:

  • Daly came in first with Moreno second in Wards 3 and 6.
  • Perez came in first with Daly second in Wards 1 and 4.
  • Perez came in first with Martinez second in Wards 2 and 5 (Martinez represents Ward 2 on the Santa Ana City Council, by the way).

Despite the fact that Perez won four wards and Daly only won two, Daly actually won Santa Ana by a 10% margin.  How?  Well, 48% of registered voters in Santa Ana live in the two wards that Daly won: Wards 3 and 6.  49% of Santa Anans who voted in the AD-69 race live in Wards 3 and 6, so those two wards did not have disproportionate voter turnout – they just have a disproportionate share of the voters to begin with.  A picture is worth a thousand words, so…

The overwhelming majority of Daly and Moreno’s votes in Santa Ana came from Wards 3 and 6, with 59% of Daly’s Santa Ana votes and 66% of Moreno’s Santa Ana votes coming from those two wards.  By contrast, 29% of Perez’s Santa Ana votes and 38% of Martinez’s Santa Ana votes came from those two wards.  Here’s each candidate’s vote totals broken down visually by ward:

Once again, due to Daly’s landslide first-place finish and Barragan’s distant fifth-place finish, let’s take a closer look with just Moreno, Perez, and Martinez, who were closer together in the results:

Perez’s vote totals were fairly evenly spread out across the wards, Martinez got a bump from Ward 3, but Moreno’s performance was very strong in Wards 3 and 6 and disastrous in Wards 2, 4, and 5.

Had Perez done a stronger push in Anaheim or a three-prong strategy in Anaheim, Santa Ana’s Ward 3, and Santa Ana’s Ward 6, there’d be a Democrat vs. Democrat intraparty battle in AD-69 in November between business-backed Tom Daly and union-backed Julio Perez.

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

AD-74’s Surprise Split: Mansoor Wins Three Cities, Rush Wins Other Three Cities, Daigle Second in Hometown But Third in All Other Cities

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 22, 2012

Apologies for the blogcation this week.  We forgot to tell readers we would be taking time off for Day of the Independent Hungary on June 19 and Argentinian Flag Day on June 20.  We were going to celebrate Canadian National Aboriginal Day and Prince William’s 30th birthday on June 21, but then Thomas Gordon blogged about Barack Obama’s assertion of executive privilege à la Richard Nixon.  Now back to the show…

On Monday, I blogged the city-by-city breakdown in AD-72, which showed Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) and Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) the top two in four cities, OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley) and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove) the top two in two cities, and Pham and Edgar the top two in Garden Grove.

Today, we look at the surprise result in AD-74.

First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:

California State Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R) 33,319 43.5%
Newport Beach Businessman Robert Rush (D) 25,120 32.8%
Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R) 18,207 23.8%

So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the six cities of AD-74: Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Costa Mesa, Laguna Woods, and Laguna Beach.

74th Assembly District results in each city

(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics.  Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-74.  Huntington Beach is divided nearly 50/50 between AD-72 and AD-74 while 2/3 of Irvine is in AD-74, with 1/3 of Irvine in AD-68.)

In each city, the candidate with the larger head came in first while the candidate with the smaller head came in second:

  • Rush came in first with Mansoor second in Irvine, Laguna Woods, and Laguna Beach.
  • Mansoor came in first with Rush second in Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa.
  • Mansoor came in first with Daigle second in Newport Beach.

These results were consistent in all six cities across both absentee and poll voters.

Here’s the percentage breakdown by city, with the winner’s percentage in bold and the runner-up in italics:

Mansoor Rush Daigle
Costa Mesa 49.7% 32.1% 18.1%
Huntington Beach 46.2% 29.8% 24.0%
Irvine 37.8% 39.1% 23.1%
Laguna Beach 32.0% 46.6% 21.4%
Laguna Woods 33.8% 45.4% 20.7%
Newport Beach 48.2% 22.1% 29.7%

Now here’s that list of cities by number of voters in AD-74:

  • Newport Beach: Mansoor
  • Huntington Beach: Mansoor
  • Irvine: Rush
  • Costa Mesa: Mansoor
  • Laguna Woods: Rush
  • Laguna Beach: Rush

For our visual learners:

The results show that despite enormous spending on behalf of Daigle by Berkshire Hathaway Heir and Santa Clara County Republican Party Chairman Charles Munger, Jr. (as we blogged about here, here, and here), which eventually totaled well over half a million dollars ($579,040 to be exact), plus another $89,687 in independent expenditures from labor unions, the power of incumbency and grassroots activists enabled Mansoor to overcome the hundreds of thousands of dollars in Bay Area/labor union money spent on behalf of Daigle.  Similarly, the power of party label enabled Rush to overcome the hundreds of thousands of dollars in Bay Area/labor union money spent on behalf of Daigle (much like the power of party label enabled Republican Jose “Joe” Moreno [not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno] to overcome the $246,761 in labor union money spent on behalf of Democrat Julio Perez).

And here’s a quick video courtesy of OC Political Reader and Lake Forest City Council Candidate Dwight Robinson that boils the AD-74 result into a nutshell:

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

AD-72’s Distinct Split: Edgar & Allen Top Two in Four Cities, Pham & Dovinh Top Two in Two Cities

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 18, 2012

With the Primary Election certified, we now have clear breakdowns available in every race in the county.  First up is the 72nd Assembly District, which had the most distinct divisions in the different parts of the district.

First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:

Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar (R) 18,060 28.0%
Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen (R) 12,851 19.9%
Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D) 12,432 19.3%
County Board of Education Trustee Long Pham (R) 12,409 19.2%
Garden Grove Retiree Albert Ayala (D) 8,816 13.7%

So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the nine major parts of AD-72 (the seven cities of Fountain Valley, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Los Alamitos, Santa Ana, Seal Beach, and Westminster along with the two major unincorporated areas of Midway City and Rossmoor).

72nd Assembly District results in each city and major unincorporated area

(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics.  Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-72.  Huntington Beach is divided nearly 50/50 between AD-72 and AD-74.  A sliver of Santa Ana and the bulk of Garden Grove are in AD-72 while the bulk of Santa Ana and a sliver of Garden Grove are in AD-69.)

In each city, the candidate with the larger head came in first while the candidate with the smaller head came in second:

  • Edgar came in first with Allen second in Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, Seal Beach, Los Alamitos, and Rossmoor.
  • Pham came in first with Dovinh second in Westminster, Santa Ana, and Midway City.
  • Pham came in first with Edgar second in Garden Grove.

Here’s their vote totals broken down visually by city:

Seal Beach single-handedly caused Edgar vs. Allen.  Without them, it would have been Edgar vs. Pham.  Same story with Huntington Beach.

Fountain Valley single-handedly caused the all-Republican matchup.  Without them, it would have been Edgar vs. Dovinh.

Here’s how each candidate performed in the various parts of the district:

  • Edgar came in first or third in every part of the district, except for a second-place finish in Garden Grove and a fourth-place finish in Santa Ana.
  • Pham came in first or fifth in every part of the district, except for a third-place finish in his home of Fountain Valley.
  • Dovinh came in second or third in every part of the district, except for a fourth-place finish in Fountain Valley.
  • Allen came in second or fourth in every part of the district, except for a fifth-place finish in Santa Ana.
  • Ayala came in fourth or fifth in every part of the district, except for a third-place finish in Santa Ana.

Here’s a chart showing how the candidates did in each city and major unincorporated area:

Huntington Beach
Los Alamitos
Seal Beach
Rossmoor		 Fountain Valley Westminster
Midway City		 Santa Ana Garden Grove
  1. Edgar
  2. Allen
  3. Dovinh
  4. Ayala
  5. Pham
  1. Edgar
  2. Allen
  3. Pham
  4. Dovinh
  5. Ayala
  1. Pham
  2. Dovinh
  3. Edgar
  4. Allen
  5. Ayala
  1. Pham
  2. Dovinh
  3. Ayala
  4. Edgar
  5. Allen
  1. Pham
  2. Edgar
  3. Dovinh
  4. Allen
  5. Ayala

Here are the areas sorted by voter turnout:

  • Seal Beach: 36.2%
  • Rossmoor: 34.1%
  • Fountain Valley: 26.9%
  • Los Alamitos: 25.5%
  • Huntington Beach: 24.8%
  • Westminster: 23.5%
  • Garden Grove: 21.7%
  • Midway City: 19.9%
  • Santa Ana: 18.1%

Now let’s see that voter turnout list again, but with the top two candidates in each city noted:

  • Seal Beach: Edgar, Allen
  • Rossmoor: Edgar, Allen
  • Fountain Valley: Edgar, Allen
  • Los Alamitos: Edgar, Allen
  • Huntington Beach: Edgar, Allen
  • Westminster: Pham, Dovinh
  • Garden Grove: Pham, Edgar
  • Midway City: Pham, Dovinh
  • Santa Ana: Pham, Dovinh

Had voter turnout been just a tad higher in Little Saigon or a tad lower in the non-Little Saigon parts of AD-72, Edgar would be facing off against fellow Republican Pham or Democrat Dovinh.

Looking at Pham’s first-or-fifth performance everywhere (outside of his home of Fountain Valley), it’s clear that Team Pham focused too much energy on Little Saigon.  Just a little bit more mail, walkers, or other effort in the non-Little Saigon areas of AD-72 would have been just enough to get him that 0.7% he needed to make the run-off against Edgar.

67% of the voters cast their ballots for the three Republicans while 33% cast their ballots for the two Democrats.  The majority of primary election voters (52.2%) cast their ballots for Dovinh, Pham, or Ayala.  Edgar and Allen combined to win 47.9% of the vote.

The path to victory for the two November contenders goes through Little Saigon, the Democrats, and the independents.  Between Edgar and Allen, whoever can get these large blocs of voters to swing behind them will be the next Assemblyman from the 72nd District.

Posted in 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

How Fast is the Registrar of Voters Counting Ballots? When Will They Finish? Who Will This Affect?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 14, 2012

On Friday evening, there were 17,125 uncounted ballots.

By Monday evening, there were 14,724 uncounted ballots, meaning 2,401 ballots were resolved on Monday.

By Tuesday evening, there were 9,528 uncounted ballots, meaning 5,196 ballots were resolved on Tuesday.

By last night, there were 4,625 uncounted ballots, meaning 4,903 ballots were resolved on Wednesday.

At the rate they’re going, it’s highly likely the Registrar of Voters completes the vote count today.

For visual learners:

There are only a few races that could still be affected by the outstanding ballots.

  • Will Ray Grangoff close his 51-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District?  Will Ken Williams close both his 115-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway and his 64-vote deficit to overtake Ray Grangroff for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District?
  • Will Bill Dunlap close his 62-vote deficit to overtake John Draper for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 74th District?

Those two races are the only ones in all of Orange County where the gap between the elected and the unelected (or 2nd and 3rd place in those fighting to advance to November from primaries) is 0.3% or less.  It is highly unlikely the 4,625 outstanding ballots would move the needle any more than 0.3%.

There are a couple races where the current leads would be unaffected by the remaining 4,625 ballots, but where the gap could close enough to lead the 3rd or 4th place candidate to pay for a recount to advance to November from the primaries.  (I’m assuming no one’s going to pay for a recount for any party’s Central Committee.)

69th Assembly District
Tom Daly (D) 10,862 39.3%
Jose “Joe” Moreno (R) 5,933 21.5%
Julio Perez (D) 5,649 20.4%
Michele Martinez (D) 4,614 16.7%
Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D) 594 2.1%

Team Perez is likely contemplating whether they’ll pay for a recount if they get within 1% of Jose Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno).  Perez’s allies spent six figures trying to elect him, so the cost of a recount wouldn’t be out of the question for them.

72nd Assembly District
Troy Edgar (R) 17,968 28.0%
Travis Allen (R) 12,726 19.8%
Joe Dovinh (D) 12,353 19.3%
Long Pham (R) 12,325 19.2%
Albert Ayala (D) 8,756 13.7%

Long Pham is likely contemplating if he will pay for a recount if he gets within 0.5% of Travis Allen.  It’s unlikely Joe Dovinh or his team have the financial resources to pay for a recount.  Pham would need to dig into his own pockets for a recount.  He’s already spent $100,000 of his personal funds on his campaign and making 2nd place to get to the November general election against Troy Edgar may be the only way he recoups that $100,000.

The 1% for Perez vs. the 0.5% for Pham is on the basis that Perez would be more aggressive than Pham in pursuing a recount, as Perez’s allies spent more and have deeper pockets to pay for a recount while Pham spent less and has more shallow (less deep?) pockets.

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, Orange County, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

AD-72: What Will Edgar & Allen Do in Their All-Republican November Matchup?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 11, 2012

This week, I’ll be doing a series analyzing OC’s multi-candidate Assembly races that have now narrowed down to two. Our opener is the surprise in AD-72.

Conventional wisdom held that if any OC district was going to feature an intraparty battle in November (courtesy of Prop 14), it was going to be the Republicans in AD-74 between Allan Mansoor and Leslie Daigle or the Democrats in AD-69 between Tom Daly and either Julio Perez or Michele Martinez.

Lo and behold, AD-72 came out of nowhere with an all-Republican November matchup between Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.

Troy Edgar & Travis Allen

AD-72 Matchup: Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) vs. Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach)

Conventional wisdom held that the Republican vote would split three ways between Edgar, Allen, and OC Board of Education Member Long Pham, while Joe Dovinh would hold most of the Democrats, with a small number of votes going to Democrat Albert Ayala.

Most people (myself included) predicted an Edgar vs. Dovinh matchup in November, a few predicted Allen vs. Dovinh, even fewer predicted Pham vs. Dovinh, but did anyone predict Edgar vs. Allen?

How did this happen?  Edgar was weaker than expected allowing Allen and Pham to eat up more Republican votes while Ayala was stronger than expected eating up much of Dovinh’s votes from Democrats.

This race was incredibly evenly divided.  First place was quite low at 28.2% and last place rose up to 13.6%.  Second, third, and fourth place were 0.5% apart.

Troy Edgar 17,594 28.2%
Travis Allen 12,300 19.7%
Joe Dovinh 12,055 19.3%
Long Pham 11,959 19.2%
Albert Ayala 8,492 13.6%

(Some readers may be wondering if Dovinh or Pham could still catch Allen with the remaining uncounted ballots.   There just aren’t enough out there. 62,400 out of the 409,824 ballots counted in Orange County so far cast votes in AD-72, which equals 15.2% of the votes.  There are 17,125 uncounted ballots remaining in Orange County, which leaves approximately 2,603 votes remaining in AD-72.  To make up the current 245-vote deficit, Dovinh would need to be ahead of Allen by 9.4%.  Dovinh never led Allen by more than 5.2%.  To make up his current 341-vote deficit, Pham would need to be ahead of Allen by 13.1% and also be 3.7% ahead of Dovinh.  Pham never led Allen by more than 5.5%.  Now, of that 17,125 uncounted ballots, there are 15,642 provisionals, which do tend to favor Democrats; presumably, 2,378 of those provisionals cast votes in the AD-72 race, but provisionals have a higher invalidity rate than other ballots.  Note also that Albert Ayala is still there sucking up a good chunk of votes that would otherwise go to Dovinh.)

The Edgar and Allen camps now face an interesting quandary: tack left, tack right, or try to do both.  During the primary, Edgar and Allen both tried to run right, each proclaiming he was the real conservative and the other was closet liberal.

Both Edgar and Allen have interesting partisan histories.  Edgar was a registered Democrat until switching his registration to Republican the same week that he filed to run for office for the first time when he did so in his successful bid for Los Alamitos City Council.  Allen has donated large sums of money to Democrats, as reported by Jon Fleischman over at FlashReport.

If they run right, Edgar and Allen can each undercut each other’s bases and grab Pham’s supporters.   If they run left, they can pick up Dovinh and Ayala’s supporters.  Will Edgar and Allen both run right?  Will they both run left?  Will one run right while the other runs left?  Will they attempt to be all things to all people, running right in mail to Republicans, running left in mail to Democrats, and proclaiming their independent/bipartisan/maverick qualities in mail to No Party Preference voters?

In the primary, both men were willing to dip into their personal funds to finance their campaigns.  Edgar dropped $100,000 while Allen dropped $95,500.  (By the way, Pham dropped $100,000 while Dovinh only dropped $1,000.)  Many people will note that candidates often loan their campaigns money to make their warchests look bigger than they actually are.  Well, not in AD-72!  The largest remaining warchest is less than $25,000.  Edgar, Allen, and Pham all spent the bulk of the money they dumped in their campaigns.  To recoup that money, they’re going to have to raise it.

Edgar and Allen will need to spend the summer raising more money or else be willing to dip into their personal fortunes again.  Either way, this should be an interesting November in AD-72, as Democrats laugh at Republican money being spent against Republicans.

(For our more literature-oriented readers, I will note in the race between Troy Edgar and Travis Allen, Marilynn Poe has endorsed her Council colleague, Edgar.)

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AD-72 Spending: Edgar $232,000, Pham $106,000, Allen $62,000, Dovinh $16,000

Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 25, 2012

Troy Edgar, Long Pham, Travis Allen, Joe Dovinh

Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos), OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley), Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach), and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove)

In the 72nd Assembly District race, Republican Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar spent $212,250 during the March 18-May 19 reporting period.  This brings his total spending in the AD-72 race to $231,974.  Surprisingly, this leaves only $10,791 in his warchest.  However, the independently wealthy Edgar can easily write a check to his own campaign (indeed, he put $400,000 into his Congressional warchest before deciding to run for the Assembly instead).

Republican Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham spent $62,675 during the March 18-May 19 reporting period, bringing his total spending in the AD-72 race to $106,072.  He has only $1,412 left in his warchest.

Republican Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen spent $54,233 during the March 18-May 19 reporting period, bringing his total spending in the AD-72 race to $62,406.  He has $23,389 left in his warchest.

Democratic Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh spent $6,699 during the March 18-May 19 reporting period, brining his total spending in the AD-72 race to $16,352.  He has $5,493 left in his warchest.

Democratic Candidate Albert Ayala did not meet the $1,000 threshold to file a campaign finance report.

There are no reported independent expenditures in this race.

Edgar spent the bulk of his money on reaching actual voters. He spent $119,433 on campaign mail and literature.  He spent another $30,595 on slate mailers.  That’s $150,028 of his $231,974 (65%) of his spending going to voter communication.

Pham just had a lot of overhead expenses.  He spent $25,115 on slate mailers, $3,500 on TV ads, and $1,548 on palm cards.  The rest of his spending went into campaign consulting fees, miscellaneous personnel costs, a $1,748 photography expenditure, and other overhead.  That’s $30,163 of his $106,072 (28%) of his spending going to voter communication.

Allen suffered much of the same spending problems that Pham did.  He spent $15,860 on campaign mail and literature and $5,000 in print ads.  The rest of his spending went into campaign consulting fees, miscellaneous personnel costs, a $12,650 poll, a $900 photography expenditure, and other overhead.  That’s $20,860 of his $62,406 (33%) of his spending going to voter communication.

Dovinh spent $4,063 on the COPS Voter Guide slate mailer, $1,315 on print ads, and $765 on campaign literature.  The rest of his spending went into various personnel expenses and the occasional other overhead.  That’s $6,143 of his $16,352 (38%) of his spending going to voter communication.

For visual learners:

Voter
Communication		 Other
Expenditures		 Total
Expenditures		 Cash on
Hand
Edgar $150,028 $81,946 $231,974 $10,791
Pham $30,163 $75,909 $106,072 $1,412
Allen $20,860 $41,546 $62,406 $23,389
Dovinh $6,143 $10,209 $16,352 $5,493

It’s interesting how close Edgar and Pham’s personnel/overhead costs are, but Edgar has spent five times as much on actually reaching voters.

It is clear that Edgar is dominating the voter communication in AD-72, with nearly three times as much as his opponents combined.  Edgar will come in first by a comfortable margin.  It’s probably already too late for any of the other candidates to catch him.  While Dovinh spent the least of the four, he still remains the higher spending Democrat.  With the Republican vote split three ways and the Democratic vote split only two ways, the top two candidates in June will be Edgar and Dovinh, who will advance to the November general election.

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2012 Primary Election Predictions: 72nd Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 17, 2012

The race in the 72nd Assembly District will be by far the most competitive race in Orange County for June. This race features 3 Republicans that could spend a lot of money to win this seat.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat is currently a safe Republican seat with an 11 point registration advantage. DTS voters also lean pretty far to the right in this neck of the woods. This seat is a more beach heavy version of the old AD 68 that was represented by Van ran and then Allan Mansoor. Republicans have one every major race here both in 2008 and 2010.

The main reason that it is such a fight is because the race is for an open seat in the Assembly. Jim Silva who currently lives in this area is termed out. The Democrats also appear to think that they have a shot at this seat and are getting behind Joe Dovinh.

The challengers include:

Albert Ayala a Retired Police Commander who is running as a Democrat.

Joe Dovinh a City Commissioner/Businessperson who has experience running for office after having run for the old 68th Assembly District in the primary back in 2010. He is running as a Democrat.

Travis Allen a Small Business Owner that is running as a Republican.

Troy Edgar the Los Alamitos Mayor and wealthy businessman. He was initially planning on running for the 49th Congressional District but with Matt Harper leaning towards dropping out of this race, Edgar made the right choice to jump in.

Long Pham the other elected official running who is a member of the Orange County Board of Education and also a candidate for the Assembly back in 2010 in the primary for the old AD 68.

The factors at play- Troy Edgar has the most money, supporters, and n my honest opinion the best campaign team behind him on this race. He is the clear favorite, and it will take a miraculous effort to get him into second place let alone out of the top 2.

Vietnamese voters will be split between Long Pham and Joe Dovinh regardless of the fact that one is a Republican and the other a Democrat.

With multiple candidates on both sides party affiliation becomes a factor with Democrats likely to take the number 2 slot and Republicans likely to take the number 1 slot.

Fundraising numbers were not great for anybody in this race other than Troy Edgar. Personal loans do not count unless it is over $100,000 as that is the number that can be returned to a candidate.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Troy Edgar & Joe Dovinh

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