OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Posts Tagged ‘Benjamin Campos’

2012 General Election Predictions: 38th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 10, 2012

We move on from the U.S. Senate to the series of Congressional races. These are all pretty straight forward picks with the exception of one race which we will discuss later this week. We start off with the 38th Congressional District which has a sliver of Orange County in it (La Palma).

Thank you to the good people at Meridian-Pacific for the use of the map.

In this race we see Linda Sanchez (D) take on Benjamin Campos (D) and the results from the primary election tell the story:

United States Representative; District 38

  • Linda T. Sánchez, Democratic ………. 33,223 votes 56.0%
  • Benjamin Campos, Republican ………. 13,363 votes 22.5%
  • Jorge Robles, Republican ………. 12,713 votes 21.4%

You have to understand that Republican turnout is generally higher in a primary election than it is in a general election. Democrats have a huge registration advantage of 49.8% to Republicans 27.4%.  The 18.8% of DTS voters in this district lean a bit more on the liberal side as well.

Registration aside, Linda Sanchez is going to have a big financial advantage in terms of fundraising capabilities and will have a huge name ID advantage based on the amount of time that she has served in Congress. The argument is always made that Congress is extremely unpopular and incumbents will easily be tossed out but people forget that voters still do generally like their own Congressional Representative.

Getting into specifics Sanchez has over $200,000 cash on hand after the primary election and Benjamin Campos has just over $5,000 cash on hand. This comparison just will not get the job done for a challenger facing a huge registration disadvantage.

The main factors at play on this campaign as stated above are fundraising, name id, and campaign experience. Linda Sanchez has the advantage in every one of these categories. However, I do believe that Benjamin Campos will beat Republican registration because in this election CPA is a strong designation to have due to the focus being budgetary issues.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Linda Sanchez

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2012 Primary Election Predictions: 38th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 10, 2012

UPDATED 2:41 PM With Explanation.

I was going to post this yesterday but Chris Nguyen kind of stole the show with this post.

This will be the first post in a series of predictions on all races that involve any part of Orange County. We will start with a look at the 38th Congressional District which covers just a tiny piece of Orange County (La Palma). Thank you to the people at Meridian Pacific for posting these great maps on their website.

As a matter of fact Chris Nguyen wrote a post that states the California Redistricting Commission forgot that La Palma was part of Orange County.

This seat is a stronghold for Democrats who have over a 20 point advantage in registration. Looking at the numbers from 2010, no Republican for any major office ended up winning in this district. The only victory here that was not supported by the Democratic Party would be Proposition 8 passing by around 20 points.

Currently Congresswoman Linda Sanchez holds this seat and has been representing this area for a while.

Challengers include Benjamin Campos a Certified Public Accountant that has a business based in Long Beach. He is listed as a Republican on the ballot.

The other challenger is Jorge Robles a Law Enforcement Officer that appears to have a business based in Montebello. He is also listed as a Republican on the ballot.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Linda Sanchez & Jorge Robles

The factors at play- I have gotten a couple of e-mails asking me to further explain what factors are at play that made me arrive at my prediction. I assure you that this is not a crystal ball or a flip of a coin.

Linda Sanchez is the only Democrat on the ballot in what is a very liberal seat. She also has incumbency on her side. She will advance based on these factors alone not to mention relatively high name ID.

The other two candidates are both Republicans and they will both pull from the same base of voters. However, I believe that voters are more likely to support someone who is involved in law enforcement as opposed to a CPA.

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California Republican Party’s Endorsements for OC: Royce, Campbell, Hayden, DeLong, Rohrabacher, Issa, Huff, Walters, Hagman, Norby, Wagner, Harkey, Mansoor

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 20, 2012

The California Republican Party has endorsed in most races for Congress, the State Senate, and the State Assembly.  Emami blogged about the CRP endorsement of Elizabeth Emken for the US Senate while I indirectly linked to the list of endorsements in this post (via CapitolAlert).

However, we never really discussed the state Republican Party endorsements here on OC Political, so here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s US Congressional delegation:

  • CD-39: Congressman Ed Royce (R-Fullerton) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
  • CD-45: Congressman John Campbell (R-Irvine) was endorsed over Small Business Owner John Webb.
    While the CRP endorsed Campbell, the OCGOP did not.
    I covered the OCGOP endorsement drama in this race here, and Emami covered it here.
  • CD-47: Long Beach Councilman Gary DeLong was endorsed over former Congressman Steve Kuykendall, an OC man named Steve Foley, and Small Business Owner Sanford Kahn.
    The Democrats running for this open seat are State Senator Alan Lowenthal, College Professor Peter Mathews, and inexplicably, a married couple are both running: Dr. Jay Shah and Charity President Usha Shah.  I’d pay to go to the Shah family dinner the night before the election.  It must be awkward to be one of the Shahs’ two adult sons; hope they live outside CD-47.
    As a legitimate swing district with no incumbent, this is one of the most interesting races involving Orange County.
  • CD-48: Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
  • CD-49: Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Vista) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.

Here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s State Senate delegation (in both cases, they’re the sole Republican running; I covered both those races here):

Here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s State Assembly delegation:

  • AD-55: Assemblyman Curt Hagman (R-Chino Hills) was endorsed is the sole Republican running.
  • AD-65: Assemblyman Chris Norby (R-Fullerton) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
    Emami covered this race here.
  • AD-68: Assemblyman Don Wagner (R-Irvine) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
    I did an article on his opponent, Christina Avalos (D-Orange), here.  Emami covered her here.
  • AD-69: No endorsement was made.  OC Eligibility Technician Jose Moreno is the sole Republican running.  I sort of covered him here.
  • AD-72: No endorsement was made.
    Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar, OC Board of Education Trustee Long Pham, and Businessman Travis Allen are the three Republicans running for this open seat.
    Click here to see our various articles related to AD-72.
  • AD-73: Assemblywoman Diane Harkey (R-Dana Point) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.

For the full list of all Congressional, State Senate, and State Assembly endorsements by the California Republican Party, click here.

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working in the office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who was endorsed in AD-65.)

Posted in 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »