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Posts Tagged ‘Pat Garcia’

California’s Plausible Independent Candidates

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 4, 2012

Traditionally, after a California primary election, the top vote-getter from each party would advance to the general election, so you could have one Republican, one Democrat, one American Independent, one Libertarian, one Green, and one Peace and Freedom.  An independent (known as a Decline-to-State or DTS back then) could only get on the ballot by petition with the signatures of literally thousands of registered voters.  Well, Prop 14 changed all that.  Now, it’s just as easy for an independent (known as No Party Preference or NPP) to get on the ballot as a candidate affiliated with a party.  If the independent is one of the top two vote-getters, they advance to November’s quasi-runoff that pits the top two candidates against each other in the general election (even if somebody gets more than 50% of the vote in June, there’s still a November runoff required; indeed, even if there’s only one candidate in June, they still advance to a November runoff where there’s only one candidate on the ballot).

So here’s a look at the dozen most plausible independent candidates running in California in tomorrow’s election. (Yes, that’s right we’re less than 23 hours away from the polls opening in the primary!)

(Party registrations do not add up to 100% in the figures below because I have not listed third party registration.)

Former Assemblyman Anthony Adams, Supervisor Linda Parks, and College District Trustee Chad Walsh

California’s most viable independent candidates: Former Assemblyman Anthony Adams (CD-8), Supervisor Linda Parks (CD-26), and College District Trustee Chad Walsh (AD-28)

Could Be Elected

  • 8th Congressional District: Former Assemblyman Anthony Adams
    Former Republican Assemblyman Anthony Adams is running as an independent candidate.  In addition to Adams, there are two Democrats and ten Republicans running.  Among the Republicans are a State Assemblyman (Paul Cook), a County Supervisor (Brad Mitzelfelt), a Mayor (Ryan McEachron of Victorville), and a Councilwoman (Angela Valles of Victorville).  CD-8’s registered voters are: 41.8% Republicans, 32.5% Democrats, and 19.5% NPPs.  It’s entirely possible that the ten Republicans could split enough of the Republican vote to allow the NPP Adams to advance to November against a Democrat and presumably win in November due to the plurality Republicans’ preference for an independent over a Democrat.
  • 26th Congressional District: Supervisor Linda Parks
    In this open seat, the three leading candidates are State Senator Tony Strickland (R-Moorpark), State Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D-Santa Monica), and Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks (NPP-Thousand Oaks).  (98.3% of CD-26’s registered voters live in Ventura County.)  Strickland is the sole Republican, and Parks is the sole NPP, but Brownley is one of four Democrats in the race.  In CD-26, Democrats make up 40.2% of registered voters, Republicans 35.7%, and NPP 19.2%.  If the Democratic vote is divided enough among the four Democrats or Parks eats up enough slices of the major party votes, this could send Parks into November.  In November, she could win, as this is a swing seat.  In a Brownley-Parks race, a Republican-NPP coalition could put Supervisor Parks in Congress.  In a Strickland-Parks race, a Democratic-NPP coalition could put Supervisor Parks in Congress.
  • 28th Assembly District: College District Trustee Chad Walsh
    Assemblyman Paul Fong (D-Cupertino) faces exactly one challenger to his re-election bid: West Valley-Mission Community College District Trustee Chad Walsh (NPP-Los Gatos).  In AD-28, Democrats make up 43.0% of registered voters, Republicans are 26.3%, and NPPs are 27.1%.  If Trustee Walsh can cobble together a solid Republican-NPP coalition or peel off enough of the Democratic vote, Walsh could upset Fong’s re-election bid to become the first independent elected to the Assembly in over half-a-century (several major party legislators, like Juan Arambula and Nathan Fletcher, became independents during their tenures but none were elected as independents).  Unseating an incumbent is a tall order, but it’s at least plausible for Trustee Walsh to pull it off.

Will Likely Advance to November But Won’t Be Elected

  • 19th Congressional District: Jay Blas Jacob Cabrera
    Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose) has three opponents in her bid for re-election: Republican Robert Murray, Republican Phat Nguyen, and NPP Jay Blas Jacob Cabrera.  Democrats make up 47.3% of CD-19’s registered voters, Republicans 22.6%, and NPPs are 26.3%.  With the Republican vote split two ways and NPP voters already outnumbering Republicans, it’s likely that Cabrera advances to November, where he’ll be stomped by incumbent Lofgren.
  • 23rd Congressional District: Terry Phillips
    House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) has two opponents in his bid for re-election: fellow Republican Eric Parker and NPP Terry Phillips, a radio reporter from a local NPR affiliate.  In CD-23, Republicans are 46.9% of registered voters, Democrats are 29.7%, and NPPs are 18.4%.  If he captures the votes of enough Democrats and NPP voters unwilling to vote for a Republican, Phillips will advance to November but lose handily to McCarthy.
  • 29th Congressional District: David Hernandez
    In this open seat, City Councilman Tony Cardenas (D-Los Angeles) faces off against fellow Democrat Richard Valdez and NPP David Hernandez.  Democrats make up 54.6% of registered voters in CD-29, Republicans are 16.4%, and NPPs are 22.3%.  If Hernandez captures the votes of enough Republicans and NPP voters unwilling to vote for a Democrat (and Valdez doesn’t eat up too much of the Democratic vote), Hernandez will advance to November but be crushed by Cardenas.
  • 20th Assembly District: Mayor Mark Green
    There are five candidates for the open AD-20 seat: Republican Hayward Unified School District Board Member Luis Reynoso, NPP Union City Mayor Mark Green, Democratic Hayward Councilman Bill Quirk, Democrat Jennifer Ong, and Democrat Sarabjit Kaur Cheema.  In AD-20, Democrats are 54.2% of registered voters, Republicans are 17.1%, and NPPs are 22.4%.  If Mayor Green captures the independent vote and/or is able to peel off enough of the Democratic or Republican vote, he could slip in to November but be defeated in his face-off against Quirk.
  • 24th Assembly District: Joseph Antonelli Rosas
    Assemblyman Rich Gordon (D-Menlo Park) faces three opponents: Fellow Democrat Geby Espinosa, Republican Chengzhi “George” Yang, and NPP Joseph Antonelli Rosas.  In AD-24, Democrats make up 47.6% of registered voters, Republicans 21.8%, and NPPs 27.3%.  If independents flock to Rosas, he could advance to November to face off against Gordon.

Decent Shot at Advancing to November

  • 13th Congressional District: Marilyn M. Singleton
    Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) has two opponents in her bid for re-election: fellow Democrat Justin Jelincic and NPP Marilyn M. Singleton.  Democrats make up 63.9% of registered voters in CD-13, Republicans are 8.6%, and NPPs are 19.9%, so if Lee holds enough of her own party’s vote, she’ll face Singleton rather than Jelincic in November and win summarily in a landslide.
  • 42nd Congressional District: Curt Novak
    Congressman Ken Calvert (R-Corona) has five opponents in his bid for re-election: fellow Republican Eva Jones, fellow Republican Clayton Thibodeau, Democrat Cliff Smith, Democrat Michael Williamson, and NPP Curt Novak.   Republicans make up 45.2% of registered CD-42 voters, Democrats are 29.9%, and NPPs are 19.9%.  If the Democratic vote is split enough, Novak could end up getting more votes than any of the Democrats and advance to November to face off against Calvert.
  • 46th Congressional District: Jorge Rocha
    Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez (D-Santa Ana) has four opponents in her bid for re-election: Republican Jerry Hayden, Republican John Cullum, Republican Pat Garcia, and NPP Jorge Rocha.   Democrats make up 44.2% of registered CD-46 voters, Republicans are 31.2%, and NPPs are 20.5%.  If the Republican vote is split enough, or if he peels off enough of the Republican vote, Rocha could end up getting more votes than any of the Republicans and advance to November to face off against Sanchez.
  • 10th Assembly District: Joe Boswell
    Assemblyman Michael Allen (D-Santa Rosa) has six opponents: San Rafael Councilman Marc Levine (a fellow Democrat), fellow Democrat Alex Easton-Brown, fellow Democrat Christian Gunderson, fellow Democrat Connie Wong, Republican Peter Mancus, and NPP Joe Boswell.  In AD-10, Democrats make up 53.7% of registered voters, Republicans 19.7%, and NPPs 21.7%.  If Boswell manages to peel off some of the Republican or Democratic vote, Boswell could advance to November to be crushed by Allen.

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2012 Primary Election Predictions: 46th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 11, 2012

This race always makes me feel like pulling my hair out. We always seem close to having the right factors in place to beat Loretta but can never quite win this seat. I thought for sure when Van Tran ran back in 2010 that we would take it back, but alas we did not.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

Unfortunately things got worse for Republicans in this seat with the redistricting commission making this one a bit more liberal. Democrats hold a 12 point advantage in this district and DTS voters are likely to lean a bit more to the lift than in other parts of Orange County.

Steve Cooley did beat Kamala Harris in the race for Attorney General in this district and Proposition 8 passed by a large margin. However, Democrats do seem to win on a consistent basis here.

Incumbent Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez does make sure to work her district, which does end up getting her votes on election day. She has represented a pretty solid chunk of this district during her tenure in Congress. One advantage for Republicans this time though is that her bank account was wiped out by Kindee Durkee.

Her challengers include:

John J. Cullum a Strategy Manager/Accountant who is running as a Republican.

Pat Garcia an Escrow Company Owner who is running as a Republican.

Jerry Hayden a Local Independent Businessman who is running as a Republican.

Jorge Rocha a Tax Accountant who is running as No Party Preference. This one I find interesting since he sought the CRA endorsement yet was ineligible to receive the CRA endorsement.

The factors at play- Loretta Sanchez is the only Democrat on the ballot, has incumbency on her side, and wields a high amount of Name ID.

Of the 3 Republicans it appears that Jerry Hayden is running the most effective campaign (although it is still early). Hayden also has the best ballot designations of all the challengers. The real question here though is if the Republicans all split the vote amongst each other allowing Jorge Rocha to advance. Hayden does appear willing to pour some serious resources into this campaign though.

Jorge Rocha likely made a very wise decision to run as  (NPP) because he has a decent shot of advancing if the Republicans split the vote evenly. If he can raise enough money to raise his name ID he has a shot. I think he will come close to finishing in the second slot but fall just a bit short.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Loretta Sanchez & Jerry Hayden

Posted in 46th Congressional District | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

OC’s Worst Ballot Designations

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 29, 2012

Ballot designations are the only piece of information that appear directly on the ballot other than a candidate's name.

The most important thing a candidate does in a campaign may well be selecting a ballot designation.  That little phrase underneath a candidate’s name are the last piece of information that voters see before casting their ballots.  In low-profile races (like Central Committee, where you can’t even get a candidate’s statement in the sample ballot), that little phrase may well be the only piece of information that voters see before casting their ballots.

Adam Probolsky has written about good and bad ballot designations, on (I believe) both Flash Report and old Red County, and he’s spoken about them in the press.  Inspired by his old commentary, I now present to you Orange County’s worst ballot designations (I’ll write about Orange County’s best ballot designations next week).

OC’s Ten Worst Ballot Designations

I would be shocked if any of these people with truly awful ballot designations win (with the possible exception of Lupe Moreno, who might be able to overcome her awful designation with her high name ID):

  1. Student (Roberta J. Reid in the Fullerton Recall, Kathryn Pena in the 73rd District Democratic Central Committee)
    The electorate does not vote for students.  Sorry, life’s unfair, but voters will not vote for a student.  Some of you will point to young candidates who have been elected, but guess what, they didn’t use the “Student” ballot designation.
    My advice to students running for office: pick “Community Volunteer” if you don’t have a job or “Businessman” or “Businesswoman” if you have a job (even a part-time job).
  2. Musician, Artist (Matthew Hakim in the Fullerton Recall)
    What on earth makes a musician or an artist qualified to hold elected office?  People like to listen to music and to look at art, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to vote for musicians or artists.
    My advice to musicians and artists running for office: pick “Businessman” or “Businesswoman”
  3. Homemaker (Patricia Ross in the 72nd District Republican Central Committee)
    While homemakers are absolutely essential to the well-functioning of people’s homes and ultimately, society, people are unwilling to vote for homemakers for elected office.  Sorry, as with students, life is unfair, and voters will not cast their ballots for homemakers.
    My advice to homemakers running for office: pick “Community Volunteer”
  4. Self-Employed Hairdresser (Heidi A. Bressler in the 74th District Democratic Central Committee)
    Why is anyone going to vote for a hairdresser?  Voters aren’t going to go for that.  What special attributes does a hairdresser bring to elected office?
    My advice to self-employed hairdressers running for office: pick “Small Business Owner” or “Businesswoman/Entrepreneur”
  5. Office Specialist (Lupe Moreno in the 69th District Republican Central Committee)
    What is an office specialist?  I think it’s something clerical.  (For the record, this is the County’s description.) If Lupe Moreno wins, it’ll be due to her long-term name ID in spite of her ballot designation.
    My advice to office specialists running for office: “Office Coordinator” or “Analyst” makes you sound more impressive.
  6. Plumbing Contractor (Kevin Richardson in the 73rd District Republican Central Committee)
    Unless you’re Joe the Plumber, I really don’t think voters are going to vote for anyone with “Plumbing” as part of their ballot designation.  People just aren’t big fans of plumbers.  Think of all the stereotypes of plumbers, and they aren’t flattering.
    My advice to plumbing contractors running for office: pick “Small Businessman” or “Business Contractor”
  7. Retail Sales Associate (Joshua Robert Morales in the 68th District Republican Central Committee)
    Why would voters cast their ballots for a retail sales associates?  What makes a retail sales associate uniquely qualified for office?
    My advice to retail sales associates running for office: “Businessman” or “Businesswoman”
  8. Retired Executive Secretary (Heide Krueger in the 74th District Democratic Central Committee)
    Executive secretaries are key players in what happens in an office and control access to the executives.  However, life’s unfair, and many people lack respect for the position and will not vote for one.
    My advice to [retired] executive secretaries running for office: “[Retired] Businesswoman” or “[Retired] Businessman”
  9. Executive Assistant (Erin Shawn in the 73rd District Democratic Central Committee)
    Executive assistants have virtually the same problem as executive secretaries, though there may be some people who make distinctions between the assistants and secretaries.
    My advice to executive assistants running for office: “Businesswoman” or “Businessman”
  10. Retired Recreation Supervisor (Glen Stroud in the 69th District Republican Central Committee)
    What would motivate people to vote for a recreation supervisor?  Stroud’s claims to fame as being a twice-ousted Santa Ana City Commissioner and a grand juror likely does not produce high enough name ID to overpower this bad ballot designation.
    My advice to [retired] recreation supervisors running for office: “[Retired] County Manager” or “[Retired] City Supervisor” (Stroud is the former, FYI); unfortunately, these are not interchangeable as “[Retired] County Supervisor” and “[Retired] City Manager” would be unacceptable due to their wildly different meanings.

(In all cases above from my advice, businessman/businesswoman/businessperson are interchangeable, of course.)

Worst Set of Ballot Designations in One Race: CD-46

  • Escrow Company Owner (Pat Garcia, Republican)
  • Tax Accountant (Jorge Rocha, Republican)
  • United States Representative – 47th District (Loretta Sanchez, Incumbent Democrat)
  • Local Independent Businessman (Jerry Hayden, Republican)
  • Strategy Manager/Accountant (John J. Cullum, Republican)

The old saying, “less is more” applies to all five of these ballot designations.  None of these in and of themselves would make the list of worst ballot designations, but collectively, they are the worst set of any one race.

  • Garcia should have just gone with “Small Business Owner” as his ballot designation.  I can’t imagine there’s a huge voter base of escrow officers.
  • Rocha should have just gone with “Accountant” or “Businessman” because a “Tax Accountant” sounds like some horrible agent of the IRS even though his job is actually helping people battle the IRS.
  • Sanchez should have left her district number off.  She inadvertently makes herself look like a carpetbagger when really her district was simply renumbered.  Fortunately for her, she has very high name ID in her district (high even for an incumbent) and throughout the county, and frankly it’s still by far the best ballot designation in this contest.
  • Hayden slapped on too many adjectives and picked odd wording.  People are more used to “Small Businessman” than “Independent Businessman” in their common vernacular.  Indeed, “Local Independent Businessman” sounds much colder and unfriendly than “Local Small Businessman” as a ballot designation.
  • On Cullum: what exactly is a Strategy Manager anyway?

So those are Orange County’s worst ballot designations.  I’ll write next week about Orange County’s best ballot designations.

(In the interest of full disclosure, I should note my day job is working in the Fullerton office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who served on the Fullerton City Council from 1984-2002.  One of my co-workers in the office is Fullerton City Councilman Bruce Whitaker, who was elected in 2010 and is not a target of the recall.  Since I referenced him at the start of this post, I should also note I have not spoken to Adam Probolsky [nor Chris Norby or Bruce Whitaker, for that matter] about this post, although I hope he would be in agreement with my analysis above.  The opinions expressed in this post are exclusively my own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Chris Norby, Bruce Whitaker, or Adam Probolsky.)

Posted in 46th Congressional District, Fullerton, Orange County, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

Live from the OC CRA Convention…

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 24, 2012

We’ll be live-blogging (for updates, refresh this post) from the OC CRA endorsing convention at the Turtle Rock Community Center in Irvine…

Format will be 3 minutes from the candidate and 3 minutes of Q&A for each race.

Mike Munzing (South OC) and Baron Night (Buena Park) appointed sergeants-at-arms. Host Jeff Lalloway (Greater Irvine) appointed parliamentarian.

Races will be voted in the order of Federal, State, and County, with slight adjustments allowed to accommodate candidate schedules.

Republican incumbents with no Republican opponent will be done by voice vote. All other races will be done by secret ballot.

Endorsements require a 2/3 vote.

In a three-candidate race, the candidate with the least votes is dropped in the first round. The remaining two candidates will contest the second and third rounds. In a two-candidate race, both candidates remain for all three rounds.

No race will go beyond three rounds, unless there are five or more Republican candidates (there are no races that have five or more candidates being considered today).

79 of an eligible 114 delegates are present representing 19 units.

First race up: AD-74
Assemblyman Allan Mansoor is here; Leslie Daigle is not. Both were invited.

Mansoor ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: CD-47
Steve Kuykendall is here; Gary DeLong is not. Both were invited. No one discussed the two minor Republican candidates.

In response to a Baron Night question, Kuykendall said he would have opposed TARP.

In response to a shouted question from a member of a CRA unit that is not eligible to vote in CD-47, Kuykendall said he is pro-choice.

Secret ballot will be used in CD-47. Westminster, Garden Grove, Stanton, and Buena Park RAs are voting.

No one reached 2/3 in round one: 5 Kuykendall, 3 DeLong, 7 no endorsement, and 1 other.

No one reached 2/3 in round two: exact totals not announced.

No one reached 2/3 in round three: exact totals not announced.


Next up: OCBE 3
Incumbent Ken Williams is here.

Williams is ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up will be the first real fireworks: 3rd Supervisorial District

Todd Spitzer will speak first; Deborah Pauly elected to speak second.

Spitzer points to his legislative record, his ability to not insult or divide people, his longtime status as a member of his CRA unit in Orange-Villa Park, his vast Republican endorsement list; his HJTA record; he says of his 3% at 50 vote: “That vote was a mistake.”

In response to a question from Ray Grangoff, Spitzer opposes pension spiking and says local employees should be forced to pay the employee contribution to the pension. (State public employees pay the employee contribution while taxpayers pay the employer contribution. Taxpayers pay both the employer and employee contribution for local public employees.)

In response to a question by Chris Emami, Spitzer opposes the Moorlach term limit extension.

Pauly speaks of her role in creating the Orange-Villa Park CRA unit. She speaks of her role in Prop 8. She speaks of good and evil. She has visited many CRA units. She says she is the true conservative.

In response to a question by Chris Emami, Pauly opposes the Moorlach term limit extension and notes her opposition to the Villa Park term limit extension.

In response to a question by Ken Williams, who expressed concerns about statesmanship, personal attacks, and offensiveness, Pauly argues only those who oppose her principles should be offended. She notes Spitzer’s 3% at 50 vote (though she doesn’t say his name).

In response to a question from Jeff Lalloway, who expressed concerns that Pauly’s Council colleagues all endorsed Spitzer, Pauly says she has “been very difficult to work with” because she opposed a 5% pay raise for city employees; she opposed spending taxes on a mural; she takes issues to the people when the council fails because “they don’t like it that they are called upon the carpet by a woman.”

Secret ballot on this one.

Irvine, Tustin, Orange-Villa Park (including yours truly), and Anaheim RAs are voting.

No endorsement in first round, as 15 votes were needed: 14 Spitzer, 6 Pauly, 2 no endorsement.

Pauly says there is no hope for conservatives if CRA doesn’t vote for her.

Spitzer says he is a pro-life Christian who is offended at being accused of not being a social conservative. He says Pauly threatened the CRA. He went over time by noting Pauly’s non-endorsement by Villa Park City Council.

Second round voting.

Spitzer ENDORSED by ballot.
18 Spitzer, 3 Pauly, and 1 no endorsement.

Next up: CD-48

Congressman Dana Rohrabacher is not present due to scheduling conflict.

Fountain Valley CRA unit member objects to Rohrabacher supporting allowing physician-assisted suicide.

Dana Rohrabacher ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: AD-55

Assemblyman Curt Hagman ENDORSED by voice vote with no discussion.

Next up: CD-46
Jorge Rocha speaks first. He talks about Loretta Sanchez’s long-term incumbency, education issues, and jobs.

Jerry Hayden speaks second. He talks about his birth in CD-46 and living in every city in CD-46. He speaks of his job as a financial advisor and his family. He speaks of jobs, energy, education, and religious freedoms. He wants to repeal the Obama healthcare plan, build the Keystone pipeline, and expand domestic oil production. He notes his endorsement by the CA Republican Party and the Family Action PAC.

Pat Garcia is the third and final speaker in CD-46. He speaks of the Huntington Beach escrow company that he and his wife own. He reads his notes about limited government and personal freedom. He loses his place at one point.

In a question from an Anaheim RA member, Garcia supports decriminalization of drug use.

In a question from a Corona Del Mar RA member, Garcia supports abolishing the Fed.

In a question from Lucille Kring of Anaheim RA, Garcia is pro-life.

Secret ballot on this one.

Santa Ana, Garden Grove, Anaheim, and Orange-Villa Park are voting.

Hayden ENDORSED with 11 of 12 ballots cast.

Next up: OCBE 1

Robert Hammond speaks of Prop 13. He’s been in education for years. He taught to Navajos and Apaches. He’s taught in public schools, private schools, and home schools. He served as a Marine. He opposes tax increases.

Hammond ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: CD-45

Challenger John Webb is here. Congressman John Campbell declined the invitation.

Webb speaks of his military and business background. He speaks of Campbell’s votes on TARP, Cash for Clunkers, Sarbanes-Oxley expansion, Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, and the STOCK Act. Webb pledges to serve only three terms.

In response to a Corona Del Mar RA delegate’s question, Webb states he is pro-life.

Secret ballot on this one.

In the first round, there’s a tie: 14 votes each for John Campbell and John Webb. There were 2 abstentions.

Webb speaks of OC being the “conservative capital” and of jobs.

In the second round (20 votes required for endorsement):
15 for John Campbell, 14 for John Webb, and 1 abstention.

Webb speaks of Campbell’s statements that he knew what the people didn’t. Webb claims there’s 4 Ed Royces becuase Royce is all over Orange County. Webb says Campbell rarely shows up.

In the final round (19 votes required for endorsement):
14 for John Webb, 13 for John Campbell, and 1 abstention.


Next up: CD-49
Congressman Darrell Issa is the only Republican running but is not present.

North San Diego, Saddleback, and South OC RA are eligible to vote but North San Diego is not present.

Issa is ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: CD-39
Congressman Ed Royce sent two representatives (Zonya Townsend and Steve Sarkis) due to a scheduling conflict involving constituent town halls. Royce is the sole Republican in the race.

Royce is ENDORSED by voice vote.

Royce arrives during the AD-72 voting but was already endorsed.

Royce is asked to speak anyway. He speaks of his efforts for Ronald Reagan over Gerald Ford in 1976. He speaks of Reagan’s battle against Communism. Royce credits CRA for giving Reagan his political start. He speaks of Reagan’s success in the (according to the Wall Street Journal) “Orange Countization of the United States.” He wants to keep Nancy Pelosi out of the Speakership, wants to oust Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leadership, and wants to see Marco Rubio as Vice President.

Next up (expect fireworks): AD-72

Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham is first to speak. He attacks Ed Royce for trying to whip the vote in AD-72 for Troy Edgar. Pham notes he’s a long-time member of the CRA and is the only AD-72 candidate who has never been a Democrat nor given money to Democrats. Pham also says he’s not beholden to Mike Schroeder, Scott Baugh, and Ed Royce. Pham also notes the influence of the Vietnamese vote.

Matt Harper asks about Prop 13, the no new taxes pledge, and his voting record on taxes. Pham says he has not received the pledge but will sign it. He supports keeping the 2/3 vote. He says he will vote against taxes.

In response to a question from a delegate, there was a lot of confusion over Stop Special Interest Money Now. it sounds like he supports the measure.

Troy Edgar speaks next. He notes he’s a US Navy veteran, business owner, and Mayor of Los Alamitos. He speaks of his business career. He speaks of his first political involvement in 2006 when he ran (successfully) for City Council.

Matt Harper asks about Edgar’s endorsements. Ed Royce, Dana Rohrabacher, Jim Silva, Tom Harman, 14 Assembly Members, most mayors and councilmembers (including Harper) endorsed Edgar.

In response to a Fountain Valley RA delegate question, Edgar admits he was a Democrat until 2006. He blames his Inland Empire union-member father. Edgar says he voted for Reagan and has never given money to a Democrat.

In response to a question, he states he is in favor of Stop Special Interest Money and the death penalty. He states he is pro-life.

Travis Allen did not send a representative.

Secret ballot on this one.

The vote was invalidated because 17 people voted despite there being only 16 eligible delegates.

Good catch by ballot counters John W. Briscoe and Jay Petersen.

First round vote (requires 12 votes for endorsement):
9 Pham, 7 Edgar, and 1 for Allen.

A 5-minute caucus was approved for AD-72 after the first-round vote was announced.

Edgar states he’s never given money to a Democrat and states he is a dedicated Republican.

Pham blames the “special interest” of Ed Royce for getting Edgar out of the CD-47 race and into the AD-72 race. He says, “CRA should not be a rubber stamp for a Congressman.”

Second-round vote (Allen is dropped for having the fewest votes):
12 for Edgar, 3 for Pham, and 2 abstentions.

Edgar ENDORSED after two rounds.

Next up: AD-65

I represented Chris Norby, noting his record on abolishing redevelopment agencies (applause line) and the fact that his sole opponent is a Democrat.

Norby ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: SD-29

Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff sent no representative but is the sole Republican running.

Huff ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: 1st Supervisorial District

Supervisor Janet Nguyen sent Steve Sarkis as his representative due to an all-day district event.

Nguyen ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: Judicial Race and Central Committee

Baron Night moves and Dennis Catron seconds to authorize the council of CRA unit presidents to endorse in the judicial race and the Central Committee races.

Dale Tyler made a motion to require Central Committee endorsements be made by the CRA units in regional caucuses themselves rather than the presidents’ council. Karl Heft notes Tyler’s motion violates the CRA statewide by-laws.

The Night motion passes by VOICE VOTE.

Next up: SD-37

Senator Mimi Walters thanks CRA for its support in all her previous legislative races. She notes she is one of the most conservative State Senators in the state. She says she was “drawn out of my district,” and “I live, or rather, lived, in Laguna Niguel, and I now live in Irvine.” She fought to successfully qualify the referendum to overturn the Senate districts.

Walters ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: AD-68

Assemblyman Don Wagner notes that the pundits thought he’d lose in the 2010 primary and how they were wrong. Wagner notes he’s the sole Republican in the race and regarding his Democratic opponent: “I have pictures of her. (Pause for audience reaction.) Pictures of her with the likes of Dennis Kucinich and Maxine Waters.”

Wagner ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: Speech by Steven Choi

While waiting for Diane Harkey to arrive, CRA asks Irvine Councilman Steven Choi to give a speech.

Steven Choi speaks about his efforts to make Irvine a better place. He speaks of his family and his conservative record. He notes he’s the sole Republican in the race for Mayor of Irvine.

Since the election is in November and only involves one city, the Greater Irvine RA will vote later this year on endorsing Choi.

Next up: AD-73

Assemblywoman Diane Harkey speaks of spending her own money to be in DC this past week lobbying Congress against high-speed rail. She notes her voting record and endorsements from conservative organizations.

Harkey ENDORSED by voice vote.

END: With shocking efficiency, the convention ended at 1:04, just four minutes late.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Irvine, Orange County, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

California Republican Party’s Endorsements for OC: Royce, Campbell, Hayden, DeLong, Rohrabacher, Issa, Huff, Walters, Hagman, Norby, Wagner, Harkey, Mansoor

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 20, 2012

The California Republican Party has endorsed in most races for Congress, the State Senate, and the State Assembly.  Emami blogged about the CRP endorsement of Elizabeth Emken for the US Senate while I indirectly linked to the list of endorsements in this post (via CapitolAlert).

However, we never really discussed the state Republican Party endorsements here on OC Political, so here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s US Congressional delegation:

  • CD-39: Congressman Ed Royce (R-Fullerton) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
  • CD-45: Congressman John Campbell (R-Irvine) was endorsed over Small Business Owner John Webb.
    While the CRP endorsed Campbell, the OCGOP did not.
    I covered the OCGOP endorsement drama in this race here, and Emami covered it here.
  • CD-47: Long Beach Councilman Gary DeLong was endorsed over former Congressman Steve Kuykendall, an OC man named Steve Foley, and Small Business Owner Sanford Kahn.
    The Democrats running for this open seat are State Senator Alan Lowenthal, College Professor Peter Mathews, and inexplicably, a married couple are both running: Dr. Jay Shah and Charity President Usha Shah.  I’d pay to go to the Shah family dinner the night before the election.  It must be awkward to be one of the Shahs’ two adult sons; hope they live outside CD-47.
    As a legitimate swing district with no incumbent, this is one of the most interesting races involving Orange County.
  • CD-48: Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
  • CD-49: Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Vista) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.

Here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s State Senate delegation (in both cases, they’re the sole Republican running; I covered both those races here):

Here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s State Assembly delegation:

  • AD-55: Assemblyman Curt Hagman (R-Chino Hills) was endorsed is the sole Republican running.
  • AD-65: Assemblyman Chris Norby (R-Fullerton) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
    Emami covered this race here.
  • AD-68: Assemblyman Don Wagner (R-Irvine) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
    I did an article on his opponent, Christina Avalos (D-Orange), here.  Emami covered her here.
  • AD-69: No endorsement was made.  OC Eligibility Technician Jose Moreno is the sole Republican running.  I sort of covered him here.
  • AD-72: No endorsement was made.
    Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar, OC Board of Education Trustee Long Pham, and Businessman Travis Allen are the three Republicans running for this open seat.
    Click here to see our various articles related to AD-72.
  • AD-73: Assemblywoman Diane Harkey (R-Dana Point) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.

For the full list of all Congressional, State Senate, and State Assembly endorsements by the California Republican Party, click here.

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working in the office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who was endorsed in AD-65.)

Posted in 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Feeling Lucky! Newest California Lottery Winners: Webb, Garcia, Varaseth, Walters, Norby, Avalos, Daly, Allen, Harkey, Daigle, Nguyen, Spitzer, Downing, Night, Dumitru, Dyrud, Nagel, Anderson, Aiken

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 16, 2012

LotteryYesterday afternoon, the newest winners of the California lottery were announced: Businessman John Webb, Businessman Pat Garcia, Businessman Ron Varaseth, Senator Mimi Walters, Assemblyman Chris Norby, Perennial candidate Christina Avalos, Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly, Businessman Travis Allen, Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, Supervisor Janet Nguyen, former Supervisor/Assemblyman Todd Spitzer, Businesswoman Karla Downing, Central Committee Member Baron Night, Orange Councilman Jon Dumitru, Central Committee Member Gwen Dyrud, Central Committee Member Steve Nagel, San Clemente Planning Commissioner Nesa Anderson, and Office Clerk Jon Aiken.

No, these 19 people are not splitting a $200,000,000 jackpot.  They won the Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery.

What’s the candidate order lottery, you ask?

Well, California law requires a lottery to determine the order of candidates on the ballot.  Why does this law exist?  Studies of the primacy effect showed the candidate at the top of the ballot gains as much as a 5% increase in votes.  Consequently, in 1975, California legislators adopted a law mandating an end to the alphabetical listing of candidates (likely to the chagrin of Sam Aanestad and Dick Ackerman but the joy of Mary Young and Ed Zschau) and requiring a lottery before each election.

The Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery has determined the alphabet for the June primary to be UNADIVXWQGOZLTRKSJHMCBFPYE.

This applies to most races on the ballot, excluding races that cross county lines (for OC, these would be CD-38, CD-39, CD-47, CD-49, SD-29, and AD-55).

The primacy effect is weaker when there are fewer candidates on the ballot, and when there are higher-profile campaigns.  Being at the top of the ballot is most valuable for low-profile campaigns with large numbers of candidates.  That means that of the 19 people I listed above, the biggest winners in this lottery are the Central Committee candidates, so the biggest congratulations goes to the following Republican Central Committee Candidates for their 5% vote bonus:

  • 55th District: Karla Downing, Small Business Owner (1st of 10 candidates)
  • 65th District: Baron Night, Incumbent (1st of 11 candidates)
  • 68th District: Jon Dumitru, City Councilman (1st of 18 candidates)
  • 69th District: Gwen A. Dyrud, Appointed Incumbent (1st of 10 candidates)
  • 72nd District: Steve A. Nagel, Incumbent (1st of 14 candidates)
  • 73rd District: Nesa Anderson, Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman (1st of a stunning 22 candidates)
  • 74th District: Jon Aiken, Office Clerk (1st of 16 candidates)

For the races that cross county lines, each county does its own lottery, so here are the OC Registrar’s lottery results: DMNESVTUHKWGXFCIQYAORZPLJB.

Congratulations to these candidates who won the Registrar’s lottery and will appear at the top of the ballot in the Orange County portions of their districts:

  • 38th Congressional District: Linda Sanchez (D), United States Representative (1st of 3)
  • 39th Congressional District: D’Marie Mulattieri (DCorrection: NPP), Community Volunteer (1st of 3)
  • 47th Congressional District: Gary DeLong (R), Local Small Businessman (1st of 8)
  • 49th Congressional District: Albin Novinec (NPP), United States Marine (1st of 4)
  • 29th Senate District: Greg Diamond (D), Workers’ Rights Attorney (1st of 2)
  • 55th Assembly District: Curt Hagman (R), Member of the State Assembly (1st of 2)

You would think that with electronic voting now, the names could be randomized for every poll voter (obviously, we’d still need the lottery for absentee voters).

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working for Assemblyman Chris Norby, one of the lottery winners, as the letter N came in second in the alphabet behind U, though no one with a last name starting with U is running in all of Orange County.)

Posted in 29th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »