OC Political

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Archive for the ‘37th Senate District’ Category

My Voter Recommendations For The November 3, 2020 Election

Posted by Craig P Alexander on September 23, 2020

Each election I create my “Craig’s Pics” voter recommendations for those who would like some suggestions on how to vote.  Of course I also encourage everyone to conduct their own research and come to your own determinations.  

For the November 3, 2020 election here are my Craig’s Pics November 3, 2020 General Election. I hope you find them helpful.  

There are two other sites I recommend for voter recommendations.  One is Robyn Nordell’s Conservative California Election Website   Robyn does A LOT of research and she has recommendations for races I do not comment on.  She is also a wonderful servant and a champion of the home school movement. Robyn kindly publishes my Craig’s Pics recommendations along with other conservative’s recommendations on her Orange County page. And we do not always agree! 

The other site is Nancy’s Picks which is run by Nancy Sandoval.  Like Robyn, Nancy spends A LOT of time researching candidates and issues.  Nancy’s Picks is one of the other conservatives Robyn Nordell publishes on her Orange County page.

Whatever you do please do vote this election.  Even if you feel your vote for President will not deliver the state to President Trump, there are so, so many other down ballot races that need your vote! Congressional candidates in your area need your vote.  State Senate and Assembly candidates need your vote.  Local races need your vote.  If you do not vote, your voice will not count in your local city council races, school board races, etc., etc.  Many men and women in the military have paid the ultimate price to secure our right to choose our leaders at election time.  I highly recommend you vote this election! To find out how to register to vote in Orange County go to the Registrar of Voters web site for voter registration.  

 

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Aliso Viejo, Anaheim, California, Capistrano Unified School District, Costa Mesa, Dana Point, Irvine, Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Woods, Mission Viejo, Moulton-Niguel Water District, Municipal Water District of Orange County, North Orange County Community College District, Orange County, Orange County Board of Supervisors, Orange Unified School District, Rossmoor Community Services District, Saddleback Valley Unified School District, San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, Santa Ana, South Orange County Community College District, State Assembly, State Senate, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

OC’s Close Contests: 47.9% Turnout, 86.9% of Ballots Counted, Nguyen and Contreras Gain, TUSD Measure N Enters Close Contest Status, SD-37 No Longer Close

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2020

The OC vote count continues, with approximately 13.1% of ballots still to be counted.

After counting 57,747 ballots on Saturday and 38,692 yesterday, the Orange County Registrar of Voters reports 102,610 ballots remain while 680,464 have been counted, which means approximately 86.9% of OC’s 783,074 ballots have already been counted (OC voter turnout in the 2020 primary appears to be 47.9%).

As OC Political noted Thursday, the Secretary of State defines “Close Contests” as those races where there is a margin of 2% or less, so we are tracking Orange County’s close contests where there is a margin of 2% or less.

In the 37th Senate District, Professor Dave Min (D-Irvine) continues to grow his lead over Mayor Katrina Foley (D-Costa Mesa) to be the Democratic nominee against Senator John Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa), increasing that lead to 5,118 votes (2.38%) on Saturday and to 6,327 votes (2.71%) yesterday.  It no longer meets the “Close Contest” definition and is unlikely to return to that status, as Min has consistently grown his lead over Foley.

Because Central Committee races are exhausting to analyze and write about (and presumably exhausting to read about), only races where a new person is in sixth place (since the top six are elected in each district) are being covered, the two-day count resulted in no changes in any of the Central Committee races in either major party.

72nd Assembly District

In the 72nd Assembly District race for the second slot to reach the top two against former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley), incumbent Tyler Diep (R-Westminster) saw his lead continue to shrink against Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) as late Democratic ballots continue to fuel Diedre Nguyen.

Yesterday, Diep’s lead declined slightly to 291 votes (0.29%), but this was after Diep’s lead over Diedre Nguyen plunged on Saturday to 309 votes (0.31%). In the prior three counts, he had led by 1,050 (1.19%), 1,286 votes (1.54%), and 1,975 votes (2.56%).

In the 1st Supervisorial District race for the second slot to reach the runoff against incumbent Andrew Do (R-Westminster), Councilman Sergio Contreras (D-Westminster) grew his lead over Mayor Miguel Pulido (D-Santa Ana) ever so slightly to 1,293 votes (1.63%) after it had previously jumped to 1,207 votes (1.59%) on Saturday.  In the prior count, Contreras’s lead over Pulido was 865 votes (1.22%), 968 votes (1.47%), and 514 votes (0.82%).  While there has been one post-Election Night count with Pulido gaining, Contreras has gained in most counts.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
34,696 43.88%
16,900 21.37%
15,607 19.74%
11,874 15.02%

Tustin Unified School District Measure N

After inching up ever so slowly, Tustin Unified School District’s Measure N broke 53% in yesterday, therefore bringing it within 2% of the 55% required to pass a local bond and now meeting the definition of a close contest.  It is now 1.99% short of 55%.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
10,080 53.01%
8,937 46.99%

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, 72nd Assembly District, Tustin Unified School District | 5 Comments »

OC’s Close Contests: 43.6% Turnout, 82.1% of Ballots Counted, Nguyen and Pulido Gain, Foley Falls

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 7, 2020

The OC vote count continues, but we are spared Florida’s 2000 chad problem

After counting 45,647 ballots yesterday (and with more ballots arriving from the Post Office for the last time, as that was the deadline for ballots to arrive), the Orange County Registrar of Voters reports 127,867 ballots remain while 584,025 have been counted, which means 82.1% of OC’s 711,892 ballots have already been counted (we now know OC voter turnout in the 2020 primary is 43.6%).

As OC Political noted Thursday, the Secretary of State defines “Close Contests” as those races where there is a margin of 2% or less, so we are tracking Orange County’s close contests where there is a margin of 2% or less.

Because Central Committee races are exhausting to analyze and write about (and presumably exhausting to read about), only races where a new person is in sixth place (since the top six are elected in each district) are covered below.  So instead of Republican Central Committee for five districts and Democratic Central Committee for seven districts, only one Central Committee race is below: 69th District for the Republican Central Committee.

37th Senate District

In the 37th Senate District race for the second slot to reach the top two against Senator John Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa), UCI Law Professor Dave Min (D-Irvine) grew his lead over Mayor Katrina Foley (D-Costa Mesa) by 1,357 votes, which brings his lead to 3,804 votes (1.97%), and SD-37 may well lose its “close contest” designation in the next count or two.  He previously led by 2,447 votes (1.37%), and before that, he led by 2,333 votes (1.36%).

72nd Assembly District

In the 72nd Assembly District race for the second slot to reach the top two against former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley), incumbent Tyler Diep (R-Westminster) saw his lead continue to shrink against Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) as late Democratic ballots continue to fuel Diedre Nguyen.

Diep gained 1,310 votes in the latest count, but Diedre Nguyen gained 1,546 votes, narrowing Diep’s lead to 1,050 (1.19%). In the previous count, Diep had gained 1,177 votes while Diedre Nguyen gained 1,866 votes, which brought Diep’s lead down to 1,286 votes (1.54%).  Prior to that, Diep had 20,382 votes (26.40%) while Diedre Nguyen had 18,407 votes (23.84%), giving Diep a lead of 1,975 votes (2.56%).

While the Diep camp can’t be happy about their continual decline versus Diedre Nguyen, they are probably relieved the decline has slowed.  A decline of 109 votes after the two added 2,856 votes is certainly better for them than the 686-vote decline after the two added 3,043 votes.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
30,753 34.72%
22,869 25.82%
21,819 24.63%
13,135 14.83%
In the 1st Supervisorial District race for the second slot to reach the runoff against incumbent Andrew Do (R-Westminster), Councilman Sergio Contreras (D-Westminster) saw his lead over Mayor Miguel Pulido (D-Santa Ana) shrink by 103 votes, so Contreras now leads Pulido by 865 votes (1.22%).  Previously, Contreras led Pulido by 968 votes (1.47%).  In the count before that, Contreras led Pulido by 514 votes (0.82%).
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
31,601 44.56%
14,797 20.87%
13,932 19.65%
10,585 14.93%

Republican Central Committee, 69th District

In the race for the sixth and final seat from the 69th District on the Republican Central Committee, Gisela Contreras (R-Santa Ana) and Councilwoman Ceci Iglesias (R-Santa Ana) flip-flopped again between fifth and sixth place slot, with Jon Paul White (R-Santa Ana) remaining in seventh place.  Iglesias leads White by 487 votes (1.51%) while Contreras leads White by 479 votes (1.49%).  Previously, Iglesias led White by 432 votes (1.44%) while Contreras led White by 443 votes (1.47%).  Prior to that count, Iglesias led White by 426 votes (1.46%) while Contreras led White by 421 votes (1.44%).
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
4,687 14.55%
4,100 12.73%
4,097 12.72%
3,945 12.25%
3,625 11.25%
3,617 11.23%
3,138 9.74%
2,748 8.53%
2,258 7.01%

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, 72nd Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Leave a Comment »

OC’s Close Contests: AD-72 Now Reaches Close Contest Status

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 6, 2020

After counting 29,601 ballots yesterday (and with more ballots arriving from the Post Office), the Orange County Registrar of Voters reports 139,058 ballots remain while 538,378 have been counted, which means 79.5% of OC’s ballots have already been counted (though a small number of additional ballots could arrive today from the Post Office that were postmarked by March 3; today is the last day ballots can reach the Registrar and still be counted).

As OC Political noted yesterday, the Secretary of State defines “Close Contests” as those races where there is a margin of 2% or less, so we are tracking Orange County’s close contests where there is a margin of 2% or less.

The race for the 72nd Assembly District has now narrowed enough to meet that 2% criteria, as Assemblyman Tyler Diep (R-Westminster) battles Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) for the second slot in the top two to advance to November with former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley), who holds a strong lead for first place.

Because Central Committee races are exhausting to analyze and write about (and presumably exhausting to read about), only races where a new person is in sixth place (since the top six are elected in each district) are covered below.  So instead of Republican Central Committee for five districts and Democratic Central Committee for seven districts, only three Central Committee races are below: 69th District for the Central Committees of both major parties and 74th District for the Democratic Central Committee.

37th Senate District

In the 37th Senate District race for the second slot to reach the top two against Senator John Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa), UCI Law Professor Dave Min (D-Irvine) grew his lead over Mayor Katrina Foley (D-Costa Mesa) by 114 votes to 2,447 votes (1.37%).  He previously led by 2,333 votes (1.36%).

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
88,681 49.55%
D) 46,368 25.91%
43,921 24.54%

72nd Assembly District

In the 72nd Assembly District race for the second slot to reach the top two against former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley), incumbent Tyler Diep (R-Westminster) saw his lead dramatically shrink against Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) as late Democratic ballots fueled a surge for Diedre Nguyen.

In the prior count, Diep had 20,382 votes (26.40%) while Diedre Nguyen had 18,407 votes (23.84%), giving Diep a lead of 1,975 votes (2.56%).  In the latest count, Diep gained 1,177 votes but Diedre Nguyen gained 1,866 votes, narrowing Diep’s lead to 1,286 votes (1.54%).

The Diep camp will be nervous and the Diedre Nguyen camp will be optimistic as late Democratic ballots continue to be counted, threatening to turn an all-Republican November contest in AD-72 into an all-Nguyen November contest in AD-72.

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
28,956 34.83%
21,559 25.93%
20,273 24.39%
12,345 14.85%

1st Supervisorial District

In the 1st Supervisorial District race for the second slot to reach the runoff against incumbent Andrew Do (R-Westminster), Councilman Sergio Contreras (D-Westminster) grew his lead over Mayor Miguel Pulido (D-Santa Ana) by 454 votes to 968 votes (1.47%).  Contreras previously led Pulido by 514 votes (0.82%).
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
29,513 44.67%
13,820 20.92%
12,852 19.45%
9,877 14.95%

Republican Central Committee, 69th District

In the race for the sixth and final seat from the 69th District on the Republican Central Committee, Gisela Contreras (R-Santa Ana) grew her lead so much that she leapt into fifth place.  It is now Councilwoman Ceci Iglesias (R-Santa Ana) who holds the sixth place slot, with Jon Paul White (R-Santa Ana) remaining in seventh place.  Contreras leads White by 443 votes (1.47%) while Iglesias leads White by 432 votes (1.44%).  Previously, Contreras led White by 421 votes (1.44%) and Iglesias led White by 426 votes (1.46%).
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
4,370 14.54%
3,825 12.72%
3,821 12.71%
3,689 12.27%
3,371 11.21%
3,360 11.18%
2,928 9.74%
2,584 8.60%
2,112 7.03%
For the sixth and final spot on the Democratic Central Committee from the 69th District, Manny Escamilla (D-Santa Ana) overtook Ariana Arestegui (D-Garden Grove).  Escamilla now leads Arestegui by 15 votes (0.02%). Previously Escamilla trailed Arestegui by 5 votes (0.01%).  Four candidates are within 2% of Escamilla.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
8,446 11.84%
8,342 11.69%
7,686 10.77%
6,511 9.13%
5,444 7.63%
5,322 7.46%
5,307 7.44%
5,032 7.05%
4,353 6.10%
4,180 5.86%
3,767 5.28%
3,535 4.95%
3,427 4.80%

Democratic Central Committee, 74th District

In the race for the final seat on the Democratic Central Committee from the 74th District, incumbent Janice Burstin (D-Laguna Woods) overtook College Professor Samila Amanyraoufpoor (D-Irvine) in the latest count to lead by 165 votes (0.13%).  Previously, Amanyraoufpoor led Burstin by 83 votes (0.07%).  Five candidates are within 2% of Burstin.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
11,514 8.85%
10,190 7.83%
10,065 7.73%
9,999 7.68%
9,852 7.57%
9,633 7.40%
9,468 7.27%
8,714 6.70%
8,314 6.39%
7,679 5.90%
7,134 5.48%
6,426 4.94%
5,882 4.52%
4,631 3.56%
4,532 3.48%
3,591 2.76%
2,527 1.94%

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, 72nd Assembly District | 1 Comment »

OC’s Close Contests

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 5, 2020

Fortunately, Orange County doesn’t have Florida’s chad problem from the 2000 presidential election

After counting 21,461 ballots yesterday (and with more ballots arriving from the Post Office), the Orange County Registrar of Voters reports 166,107 ballots remain while 509,160 have been counted, which means 75.4% of OC’s ballots have already been counted (though a small number of additional ballots could arrive from the Post Office that were postmarked by March 3).

The Secretary of State defines “Close Contests” as those races where there is a margin of 2% or less, so below are Orange County’s close contests where there is a margin of 2% or less.  The close contests were stories #2 and 4 on OC Political’s list of “OC’s Top Ten 2020 Primary Election Stories” and a whole bunch of Central Committee races.

37th Senate District

In the battle to reach the top two to face off against Senator John Moorlach (R), UCI Law Professor Dave Min (D-Irvine) is leading Mayor Katrina Foley (D-Costa Mesa) by 1.36%, which is 2,333 votes.  The California Democratic Party endorsed Min who came in third for the 45th Congressional District in the 2018 primary, when fellow UCI Law Professor Katie Porter (D) came in second behind then-Congresswoman Mimi Walters (R), and Porter would defeat Walters in the general election.  Foley is the first directly-elected Mayor of the district’s third-largest city, holding elected office there for the past 16 years as City Councilwoman, School Board Member, City Councilwoman again, and Mayor.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
85,598 49.74%
D) 44,405 25.81%
42,072 24.45%

1st Supervisorial District

In the race to make the run-off against Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster), Councilman Sergio Contreras (D-Westminster) leads Mayor Miguel Pulido (D-Santa Ana) by 0.82%, which is 514 votes.  The Democratic Party of Orange County endorsed Contreras while Pulido is the Mayor of the district’s largest city, having held the office for the past 26 years.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
27,971 44.74%
12,874 20.59%
12,360 19.77%
9,315 14.90%

Republican Central Committee, 65th District

Mayor David Shawver (R-Stanton) is holding on to the sixth and final spot for Republican Central Committee from the 65th District with 3 people behind him by less than 2%.  In his re-election to the Central Committee, Shawver leads Businessman Nick Dunlap (R-Fullerton) by 0.45% which is 355 votes, incumbent Steve Sarkis (R-Stanton) by 0.48% which is 382 votes, and Businessman DeWayne Allen Normand (R-Stanton) by 1.28% which is 1,009 votes.

Of note, top vote-getter Cynthia Thacker (R-Buena Park) will vacate this directly-elected Central Committee seat because she has won an ex-officio seat on the Central Committee by virtue of becoming the Republican nominee for the 65th Assembly District against incumbent Sharon Quirk-Silva (D-Fullerton).  Similarly, fifth place James Waters (R-Anaheim) will vacate this directly-elected Central Committee seat because she has won an ex-officio seat on the Central Committee by virtue of becoming the Republican nominee for the 46th Congressional District against incumbent Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana).

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
10,690 13.51%
10,198 12.89%
8,308 10.50%
8,271 10.45%
8,114 10.26%
7,942 10.04%
7,587 9.59%
7,560 9.56%
6,933 8.76%
3,510 4.44%

Republican Central Committee, 68th District

Prosecutor Ray Gennawey (R-Irvine), son of Councilwoman Elaine Gennawey (R-Laguna Niguel), is in the sixth and final Central Committee seat from the 68th District, leading incumbent Central Committee Member and former Councilwoman Deborah Pauly (R-Villa Park) by 0.08%, which is 162 votes. Gennawy is also leading Councilman Scott Voigts (R-Lake Forest) by 0.76% which is 1,012 votes, and Businessman John Park (R-Irvine) by 1.13% which is 1,491 votes.

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
20,559 15.61%
15,525 11.79%
12,007 9.12%
10,797 8.20%
10,390 7.89%
9,975 7.57%
9,813 7.45%
8,963 6.81%
8,484 6.44%
7,217 5.48%
6,486 4.92%
4,651 3.53%
4,473 3.40%
2,359 1.79%

Republican Central Committee, 69th District

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
4,255 14.54%
3,732 12.75%
3,731 12.75%
3,592 12.27%
3,272 11.18%
3,267 11.16%
2,846 9.72%
2,516 8.60%
2,056 7.02%

Republican Central Committee, 72nd District

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
16,829 14.74%
12,206 10.69%
11,841 10.37%
11,148 9.76%
10,845 9.50%
9,770 8.55%
9,355 8.19%
7,130 6.24%
5,861 5.13%
5,511 4.83%
4,823 4.22%
4,516 3.95%
4,368 3.82%

Republican Central Committee, 74th District

In the 74th District’s race for the last spot for Central Committee, Retired Navy Nurse Emily Sanford (R-Huntington Beach) leads former Councilman Scott Peotter (R-Newport Beach) by 0.86% which is 1,159 votes and Councilman Mike Posey (R-Huntington Beach) by 1.65% which is 2,233 votes.

Of note, the top vote-getter, Councilwoman Diane Dixon (R-Newport Beach), will vacate this directly-elected Central Committee seat because she has won an ex-officio seat on the Central Committee by virtue of becoming the Republican nominee for the 74th Assembly District against incumbent Cottie Petrie-Norris (D-Laguna Beach).

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
19,576 14.46%
17,254 12.74%
13,278 9.81%
12,167 8.99%
11,753 8.68%
10,135 7.49%
8,976 6.63%
7,902 5.84%
6,336 4.68%
5,943 4.39%
5,836 4.31%
4,072 3.01%
3,787 2.80%
3,736 2.76%
2,969 2.19%
1,683 1.24%

Democratic Central Committee, 55th District

Businesswoman Gail Cain (D-Brea) leads Democratic Party of Orange County Vice-Chair North Jeffrey LeTourneau (D-Brea) for the last Democratic Central Committee spot from the 55th District by 0.33%, which is 128 votes.

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
6,926 17.82%
6,562 16.89%
5,281 13.59%
4,773 12.28%
4,734 12.18%
3,894 10.02%
3,766 9.69%
2,926 7.53%

Democratic Central Committee, 65th District

In the 65th District, Democratic Party of Orange County Chair Ada Briceño (D-Stanton) is hanging on to her Central Committee seat, leading Nonprofit Director/Accountant Bruce W. Johnson (D-Buena Park) by 1.59%, which is 1,406 votes.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
10,645 12.05%
10,355 11.73%
9,322 10.56%
8,696 9.85%
7,889 8.93%
7,213 8.17%
5,807 6.58%
5,230 5.92%
5,206 5.90%
4,787 5.42%
4,779 5.41%
4,565 5.17%
3,813 4.32%

Democratic Central Committee, 68th District

A whopping eight candidates for the Democratic Central Committee are within 2% of Retired Physician Bill Honigman (D-North Tustin) for the last spot from the 68th District.  The closest of the eight is Attorney Nathaniel Fernandez Epstein (D-Lake Forest), who trails Honigman by just 0.01%, which is 18 votes.  Epstein finished in last place in the race for Orange County Assessor in 2018.  Another of the 8 candidates is Democratic Party of Orange County Vice-Chair Central Betty Valencia (D-Orange), currently sitting in tenth place.

Of note, top vote-getter Councilwoman Melissa Fox (D-Irvine) will vacate this directly-elected Central Committee seat because she has won an ex-officio seat on the Central Committee by virtue of becoming the Republican nominee for the 68th Assembly District against incumbent Steven Choi (R-Irvine).

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
14,646 15.06%
9,006 9.26%
7,608 7.82%
7,271 7.48%
6,790 6.98%
5,420 5.57%
5,402 5.56%
5,086 5.23%
5,057 5.20%
4,927 5.07%
4,875 5.01%
4,616 4.75%
4,405 4.53%
3,672 3.78%
2,864 2.95%
1,978 2.03%
1,858 1.91%
1,752 1.80%

Democratic Central Committee, 69th District

Four candidates are within 2% of Ariana Arestegui (D-Garden Grove) for the sixth and final spot on the Democratic Central Committee from the 69th District.  The closest is Manny Escamilla (D-Santa Ana), who trails Arestegui by 0.01%, which is 5 votes.
Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
8,229 11.88%
8,117 11.72%
7,490 10.81%
6,329 9.14%
5,272 7.61%
5,137 7.42%
5,132 7.41%
4,888 7.06%
4,221 6.09%
4,055 5.85%
3,645 5.26%
3,417 4.93%
3,344 4.83%

Democratic Central Committee, 72nd District

In the race for the 72nd District’s last seat on the Democratic Central Committee, Democratic Party of Orange County Vice-Chair West Victor Valladares (D-Huntington Beach) is leading Libby Frolichman (D-Fountain Valley) by 1.35%, which is 1,239 votes, and Sergio Escobar (D-Santa Ana) by 1.49%, which is 1,366 votes.

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
11,197 12.19%
10,897 11.87%
9,164 9.98%
8,677 9.45%
8,232 8.97%
8,108 8.83%
6,869 7.48%
6,742 7.34%
6,089 6.63%
5,792 6.31%
5,079 5.53%
4,971 5.41%

Democratic Central Committee, 73rd District

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
12,882 13.88%
11,257 12.13%
11,173 12.04%
10,638 11.46%
10,383 11.19%
9,161 9.87%
8,230 8.87%
5,968 6.43%
5,437 5.86%
5,403 5.82%
2,256 2.43%

Democratic Central Committee, 74th District

Five candidates are within 2% of College Professor Samila Amanyraoufpoor (D-Irvine) for the final seat on the Democratic Central Committee from the 74th District.  The closest of the five is incumbent Janice Burstin (D-Laguna Woods), who trails by 0.07%, which is 83 votes.

Candidate Name Total Votes Percentage
10,619 8.78%
9,460 7.82%
9,407 7.77%
9,236 7.63%
9,138 7.55%
8,918 7.37%
8,835 7.30%
8,073 6.67%
7,812 6.46%
7,152 5.91%
6,702 5.54%
5,977 4.94%
5,495 4.54%
4,305 3.56%
4,175 3.45%
3,353 2.77%
2,356 1.95%

Other Notes

If you’re wondering why the 47th Congressional District isn’t a close contest, it’s because while it’s close between John Briscoe (R-Huntington Beach) and Amy Phan West (R-Westminster) in the OC part of the district, Briscoe is crushing West in the LA County part of the district to win a spot in the top two for the 47th Congressional District, where he will face off against incumbent Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach).

No ballot measure fits the 2% close contest definition.  While the Anaheim Union High School District’s Measure B is at 51.72% and the Rancho Santiago Community College District’s Measure L is at 51.41%, those are bond measures, so they are actually more than 3% short of the 55% vote required to pass a local school bond.  (Update: Inadvertently, OC Political omitted the closest bond in the County, Tustin Unified School District’s Measure N, which is at 52.87%, which is 2.13% short of the 55% vote required to pass a local school bond.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, Democrat Central Committee, Republican Central Committee | 7 Comments »

OC’s Top Ten 2020 Primary Election Stories

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 4, 2020

With 158,000 votes remaining to count in Orange County (which is actually 30,000 fewer ballots than were remaining the morning after the 2018 primary election), here are the top ten OC Primary Election stories after the completion of the first night of results:

  1. AD-72: Nguyen vs. Diep Continues with an All-Republican General Election
    I’m starting a new company to sell larger mailboxes to residents of the 72nd Assembly District. After a $1.6 million primary, Republicans have finished in the top two for AD-72. What had been one of the closest swing seats in the state now becomes a guaranteed Republican win in November. Of the aforementioned $1.6 million, $1.5 million of it was spent between former Senator Janet Nguyen (R-Fountain Valley) and incumbent Assemblyman Tyler Diep (R-Westminster). Spoiler Bijan Mohseni (D-Los Alamitos) prevented Councilwoman Deidre Nguyen (D-Garden Grove) from reaching the top two.

    After running to the right in the primary, Janet Nguyen and Diep now face the adventure of wooing Democratic voters. Eight years ago, this same district had an all-Republican November general election, in which Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) upset Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos).

  2. BOS-1: Incumbent Do to Face Off Against Latino Democrat Officeholder…But It’s Unclear Which One
    As was widely expected, incumbent Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster) is headed to a November run-off election. However, what isn’t clear is whether his November opponent will be Councilman Sergio Contreras (D-Westminster) or Mayor Miguel Pulido (D-Santa Ana). After the first night of results, Contreras leads Pulido by just 382 votes, or 0.64% of the vote. The Democratic Party of Orange County endorsed Contreras, but Pulido has been Mayor of the district’s largest city for the past 26 years.
  3. CD-45: Raths Emerges from Republican Pack to Challenge Incumbent Democrat Porter
    After a $2.6 million primary, of which $1.65 million was spent on the Republican side, Councilman Greg Raths (R-Mission Viejo) won 18.9% of the vote, defeating five other Republicans to reach the top two to face off against incumbent freshman Democrat Katie Porter (D-Irvine). Raths raised $451,637 and spent $325,491, spending nearly $100,000 less than Councilwoman Peggy Huang (R-Yorba Linda) and less than half of what Councilman Don Sedgwick (R-Laguna Hills) spent. Sedgwick had raised almost double what Raths did, and Sparks raised about $44,000 more than Raths did. Raths faces a tall order in the general election, as Porter sits atop a $3 million warchest.
  4. SD-37: Who is Going to Be Moorlach’s Opponent?
    As was widely expected, Senator John Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa) came in first place. What isn’t clear is who will advance to the November general election to face off against Moorlach: UCI Law Professor Dave Min (D-Irvine) or Mayor Katrina Foley (D-Costa Mesa). After the first night of results, Min leads Foley by just 1,569 votes, or 0.95% of the vote. The California Democratic Party endorsed Min, but Foley is the directly-elected Mayor of the district’s third-largest city, holding City and School District offices for the past 16 years.
  5. Most (Maybe All) Nine School Bonds Fail
    In most elections, most school bonds pass, but this election, the voters were particularly unfriendly to the school bonds, with a majority voting against the Brea-Olinda Unified School District’s Measure G, Capistrano Unified School District’s Measures H and I, Fullerton Elementary School District’s Measure J, Fullerton Joint Union High School District’s Measure K, and Saddleback Valley Unified School District’s Measure M.

    Anaheim Union High School District’s Measure B and Rancho Santiago Community College District’s Measure L had a majority backing them, but both are unlikely to reach the necessary 55% margin to pass (both are below 52%). Tustin Unified School District’s Measure N is at 52.61% and still has a chance to get to 55% since the remaining ballots are expected to be disproportionately Democratic ballots since the competitive Democratic presidential primary caused those voters to cast later ballots.

  6. AD-73: Brough in Fourth Place with Davies Likely to Be an Assemblywoman
    Starting election night in the top two, embattled Assemblyman Bill Brough (R-Dana Point) fell to fourth place by the time election night was complete. Mayor Laurie Davies (R-Laguna Niguel) and Business Services Director Scott Rhinehart (D-Mission Viejo) will advance to the top two in one of California’s safest Republican Assembly seats. Homeland Security Attorney Chris Duncan (D-San Clemente) came in third ahead of Brough while Councilman Ed Sachs (R-Mission Viejo) came in fifth behind Brough. Brough was dogged by allegations of sexual harassment and campaign finance misspending, with Davies winning the endorsement of the Republican Party of Orange County.
  7. County Board of Ed. Trustee Area 3: How Much Does it Take to Beat Ken Williams? No One Knows, But $750,000 Isn’t Enough
    County Board of Education Trustee Ken Williams (R-Silverado) won more than 61% of the vote in a head-to-head race with self-funding millionaire Andy Thorburn (D-Villa Park). Thorburn was dubbed “the Mike Bloomberg of OC” by the Liberal OC and ended up putting more than $750,000 of his own money into the race. As a resident of this Trustee Area, I personally received eight mailers from Thorburn, with several attacking Williams as being too extreme for Orange County. Thorburn ran as a carpetbagger for the 39th Congressional District and almost ran for 3rd Supervisorial District. (Only Brea, Yorba Linda, and a portion of Anaheim Hills are in both the 39th Congressional District and Board of Ed Trustee Area 3.) Despite Thorburn’s $750,000 onslaught, the popular Williams cruised to a seventh term.
  8. County Board of Ed. Trustee Area 4: Shaw Wins 33.7% to Deliver Conservative Supermajority as Democrats Shoot Selves in Foot
    Unlike every other seat on the primary election ballot, County Board of Education seats are won by plurality vote (city councils, school boards, and special districts on the November general election ballot are also won by plurality). As the sole Republican on the ballot, Professor/Councilman Tim Shaw (R-La Habra) came in first place with just 33.7% of the vote.

    Three Democrats split the remainder of the vote, with At-Risk Youth Counselor Vicki Calhoun (D-Fullerton) coming in second with 26.8% of the vote, ahead of Educator/Attorney Paulette Chaffee (D-Fullerton), who got 22.4% of the vote and Councilman/Businessman Jordan Brandman (D-Anaheim) who got 17.1% of the vote. Chaffee (whose husband Doug Chaffee beat Shaw for Supervisor in 2018) spent over $124,000, Brandman spent over $64,000, and Calhoun spent so little that she was not required to file campaign finance reports: Calhoun didn’t even buy a ballot statement.The three Democrats got a combined 66.3% of the vote. With one fewer Democrat in the race, it is likely that Shaw would have fallen to second place.

    Consequently, with the election of Tim Shaw and the re-election of Ken Williams, there is now a conservative supermajority on the County Board of Education for the first time in memory (conservative Trustees Mari Barke and Lisa Sparks are not up for election until 2022).

  9. BOS-3: No One Wins Their Hometown…Again
    For the second election in a row, no candidate won their hometown in the race for Third District Supervisor. As expected, Supervisor Don Wagner (R-Irvine) won re-election without a run-off necessary since he achieved a majority of the votes. Specifically, he won 54.4% while attorney Ashleigh Aitken (D-Anaheim) won 45.6%. Despite winning most of the Third District, Wagner actually lost Irvine. Aitken lost Anaheim Hills (the only part of Anaheim in the Third Supervisorial District) handily to Wagner. Similarly, in 2018, Anaheim Hills came out strong for Republican Harry Sidhu over Democrat Aitken in the race for Mayor of Anaheim. In the 2019 special election to fill this supervisorial seat after Supervisor Todd Spitzer (R-Orange) was elected District Attorney, all seven candidates lost their hometowns. This strange streak of hostile hometowns continues.
  10. Central Committee: New Bipartisan Strategy Emerging – Get a Central Committee Seat While Running for Office on the Same Ballot
    In a fascinating phenomenon, candidates for Congress or Assembly are concurrently running for Central Committee. Nowhere was that clearer than the 68th Assembly District, where every challenger to Assemblyman Steven Choi (R-Irvine) ran for Central Committee. Melissa Fox (D-Irvine), Eugene Fields (D-Orange), and Benjamin Yu (R-Lake Forest) all won seats on their respective parties’ Central Committees for the 68th Assembly District while Choi already holds a Central Committee seat by virtue of being the Republican nominee for Assembly.

    Cynthia Thacker (R-Fullerton) in the 65th Assembly District, James Waters (R-Anaheim) in the 46th Congressional District (running for Central Committee in the 65th Assembly District), Brian Burley (R-Huntington Beach) in the 48th Congressional District (running for Central Committee in the 72nd Assembly District), Amy Phan West (R-Westminster) in the 47th Congressional District (running for Central Committee in the 72nd Assembly District), Laurie Davies (R-Laguna Niguel) in the 73rd Assembly District, Ed Sachs (R-Mission Viejo) in the 73rd Assembly District, Greg Raths (R-Mission Viejo) in the 45th Congressional District (running for Central Committee in the 73rd Assembly District), Diane Dixon (R-Newport Beach) in the 74th Assembly District, and Kelly Ernby (R-Huntington Beach) in the 74th Assembly District all won elections for Central Committee.

    In other words, a full dozen candidates for Congress and Assembly won seats on their parties’ respective Central Committees. Half of them (Fox, Thacker, Waters, Davies, Raths, and Dixon) will vacate their directly-elected Central Committee seats because they have won the ex officio positions on their respective Central Committees by virtue of being the nominees of their party for Congress or Assembly.

“As Expected” News

  • The 39th Congressional District will be a rematch (from 2018) between incumbent Gil Cisneros (D-Fullerton) and former Assemblywoman Young Kim (R-Fullerton).
  • The 48th Congressional District will feature incumbent Harley Rouda (D-Laguna Beach) vs. Supervisor Michelle Steel (R-Surfside).
  • The 49th Congressional District will feature incumbent Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) vs. Councilman Brian Maryott (R-San Juan Capistrano).
  • The 29th Senate District will be a rematch (from 2016) between incumbent Ling Ling Chang (R-Diamond Bar) and former Senator Josh Newman (D-Fullerton).
  • In the 55th Assembly District, Assemblyman Phillip Chen (R-Yorba Linda) won the primary in commanding enough fashion that Councilman Andrew Rodriguez (D-Walnut) is unlikely to be able to mount a rigorous challenge to Chen in the November general election.
  • The 74th Assembly District will be the most hotly contested between the two parties, as Assemblywoman Cottie Petrie-Norris (D-Laguna Beach) faces off against Councilwoman Diane Dixon (R-Newport Beach).
  • County Board of Education Trustee Beckie Gomez (D-Tustin) defeated former Councilman Jim Palmer (R-Tustin) and former School Board Member/Perennial Candidate/Lunatic/Convicted Ketchup Thief Steve Rocco (NPP-Santa Ana) to hang on to her Trustee Area 1 seat.
  • In other Orange County seats, Congresswoman Linda Sanchez (D-Norwalk), Congressman Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Congressman Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach), Assemblyman Tom Daly (D-Anaheim), and Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva (D-Fullerton) all face nominal opposition in November and are expected to cruise to re-election.

(Cue my usual Nguyen disclaimer: Former Senator Janet Nguyen and Garden Grove Councilwoman Diedre Nguyen are not related to each other, and neither of them are related to me. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

(In the interest of full disclosure, Dynamic Strategies, the consulting firm that owns OC Political, are the general consultants for 74th Assembly District candidate Diane Dixon, and did some last-minute work for County Board of Education Trustee Ken Williams.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 45th Congressional District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, Orange County Board of Education | 1 Comment »

Orange County Young Republicans’ Endorsements

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on February 19, 2020

The Orange County Young Republicans have announced their endorsements for the March 3, 2020 Primary Election.

Posted in 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Orange County Young Republicans Make More Endorsements for June Primary Election

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 30, 2016

Orange County Young RepublicansThe Orange County Young Republicans met on Monday night with Board of Supervisors Chairwoman Lisa Bartlett as the keynote speaker. Before Bartlett spoke, the OCYR considered endorsements for Federal and State offices (the OCYR had already considered endorsements for County offices, 55th Assembly District, and Superior Court Judge Office No. 3 in February when the speaker was Supervisor Andrew Do).

The OCYR Endorsements so far are:

A third round of endorsements will occur in April that is expected to include the 45th Congressional District, the 46th Congressional District, the 47th Congressional District, the 74th Assembly District, and several judicial races.  Nothing precludes the OCYR from issuing a dual endorsement in any race, though no one has requested one yet.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, Orange County, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

CRA Endorsements for the June 7 Primary Election

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 19, 2016

CRA_LogoI live-blogged the Orange County CRA Endorsing Convention in this prior post, but I’ve been asked to put a condensed list of the results of the Orange County CRA Endorsing Convention. So here they are:

  • U.S. Representative, 39th District: Ed Royce
  • U.S. Representative, 45th District: Greg Raths
  • U.S. Representative, 46th District: Bob Peterson
  • U.S. Representative, 47th District: Andy Whallon
  • U.S. Representative, 48th District: Dana Rohrabacher
  • U.S. Representative, 49th District: No Endorsement
  • State Senator, 29th District: No Endorsement
  • State Senator, 37th District: John M.W. Moorlach
  • Member of the State Assembly, 55th District: (Los Angeles County will host this endorsing convention)
  • Member of the State Assembly, 65th District: Young Kim
  • Member of the State Assembly, 68th District: Deborah Pauly
  • Member of the State Assembly, 69th District: Ofelia Velarde-Garcia
  • Member of the State Assembly, 72nd District: No Endorsement
  • Member of the State Assembly, 73rd District: William (Bill) Brough
  • Member of the State Assembly, 74th District: Matthew Harper
  • Orange County Supervisor, 1st District: No Endorsement
  • Orange County Supervisor, 3rd District: Todd Spitzer
  • Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 1: Robert M. Hammond
  • Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 3: Ken L. Williams, Jr.
  • Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 4: Zonya Marcenaro-Townsend
  • Judge of the Superior Court, Office No. 3: Megan L. Wagner
  • Judge of the Superior Court, Office No. 40: No Endorsement
  • Judge of the Superior Court, Office No. 48: Karen Lee Schatzle
  • Judge of the Superior Court, Office No. 49: No Endorsement
  • Central Committee, 65th District: Jerry Jackson, Baron Night, David John Shawver, Alexandria A. “Alex” Coronado, Sou Moua, and Zonya Marcenaro-Townsend
  • Central Committee, 73rd District: Mary Young, Jennifer Beall, Tony Beall, Ed Sachs, Laurie Davies, and Mike Munzing

The individual units in the 55th, 68th, 69th, 72nd, and 74th Districts have not yet decided if they will endorse for those Central Committee races.

Last month, the Statewide CRA endorsed Ted Cruz for President and Tom Del Beccaro for U.S. Senate.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Orange County, Orange County Board of Education, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Where Have All the OC Democrats Gone?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 3, 2016

Have the Democrats surrendered huge swaths of Orange County to the Republicans?  Are Orange County Democrats in such poor shape that they can’t afford to pay $1,001.13 filing fees?

With eight days left in candidate filing, it appears the Democrats have abandoned the 37th Senate District, the 68th Assembly District, and the 73rd Assembly District. The Democrats also appear to be on the verge of failing to have someone make the top two to get to November in the 45th Congressional District and 48th Congressional District.  There are also only 35 Democrats running for 42 directly-elected spots on their Central Committee.  There are 82 Republicans running for 42 directly-elected spots on the Republican Central Committee.  Let’s also not forget each party’s top vote-getter for Congress, Senate, and Assembly get ex officio spots for their respective Central Committee.

Democrats have bragged of closing the registration gap with Republicans, even overtaking Republican registration in five cities: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Garden Grove, La Habra, and as reported in the Orange County Register last month: Irvine.

Closing the registration gap or having a plurality in a city is all well and good, except the hilarious thing is the 143,487 Democrats in the 37th Senate District, the 67,657 Democrats in the 68th Assembly District, and the 68,202 Democrats in the 73rd Assembly District will have to vote for a Republican.

Perhaps, the Democrats just can’t afford to pay the $1,001.13 filing fee for candidates for the State Legislature.

In 2015, the Democratic Party of Orange County raised $66,193 in 2015 while the Republican Party of Orange County raised $248,989.  The Democratic Foundation of Orange County raised $26,635 while the (Republican) Lincoln Club of Orange County raised $208,171 ($160,977 in its state PAC and $47,194 in its issues PAC).

In the 45th Congressional District, Congresswoman Mimi Walters faces a challenge from Mission Viejo Councilman Greg Raths, yet there are two Democrats running who will presumably split the vote and fail to make the top two.  In the 48th Congressional District, Dana Rohrabacher faces a challenge from Colin Melott, yet there are two Democrats running who will presumably split the vote and fail to make the top two.  In the 37th Senate District, Senator John Moorlach faces a challenge from Assemblyman Don Wagner, with no Democrats running.  In the 68th Assembly District, there are five Republicans and no Democrats running.

Some might argue the lack of Democrats in the legislative races and exactly two Democrats in the Congressional races is a malevolent scheme to get Republican vs. Republican races in November.  Well, that’s hard to believe when there are only 35 Democrats are running for 42 directly-elected spots on their Central Committee.  Orange County Democrats are simply so disorganized that they have no candidates in huge swaths of Orange County and are in grave danger of failing to make the top two in more swaths of Orange County.

Posted in 37th Senate District, 45th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 68th Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , | 3 Comments »