Posts Tagged ‘Jon Aiken’
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 25, 2012
(UPDATED 4:52 PM With Changes to the profile of Scott Peotter).
AD 74 Central Committee is the last of the race s that I will be handicapping for the June election. It has been a long and interesting process, and I hope that all of you readers have enjoyed these.
Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.
The candidates include:
Emily Sanford– She is currently Scott Baugh’s alternate on the Central Committee and has been a volunteer with the OCGOP. I have heard people say nothing but nice things about her.
Christina L. Shea– She is best known for being one of the Republican members of the always fun Irvine City Council. In 2010 she was unable to run for re-election due to term limits.
Allan Bartlett– The leader of the OC Ron Paul fan club. He is a Libertarian leaning Republican that was recently involved in the blocked endorsement of John Campbell. *Incumbent.
John Draper– I don’t know a lot about him, although he is currently on the Central Committee and appears to be part of the tea party wing of the committee. *Incumbent.
Scott Baugh– Currently the Chairman of the Republican Party of Orange County also former Assembly Republican leader. He is usually way out in first place on election night. *Incumbent.
Greg Baker– I could find nothing on him.
Jon Aiken– Jon used to be on the Central Committee and has been a long time volunteer with the OC GOP since at least 2006.
Don Hansen– He is currently the Mayor of Huntington Beach and also rumored to be considering a run for the Orange County Board of Supervisors 2nd District.
Bill Dunlap– He ran for the Central Committee back in 2010 for the 70th district. In fact, he came quite close to winning the seat being just 250 votes short of defeating Allan Bartlett for the 6th and final spot.
Rhonda Rohrabacher– The wife of Congressman Dana Rohrabacher and also a political strategist. She has a lot of knowledge of the OC GOP and how it works. She is not an incumbent, but she will have residual name ID from Dana Rohrabacher.
Thomas A. Fuentes Jr.– The son of popular Republican Party Chairman Tom Fuentes. He was recently appointed as an alternate on the Central Committee created by the very classy Matt Holder.
Scott Peotter– He is a conservative attorney and also is best known to those that run in the same circles as members of the Family Action PAC. Apparently I mixed him up with his brother. Scott is a developer, Mansoor aide, former Newport Beach Planning Commissioner, and long-time GOP activist.
Gary R. Morse– I found when searching that he is an organizer with the Newport Mesa Tea Party Patriots.
Vanessa Mathews– I could find nothing on her.
Daniel Marshall– An Attorney who I could also find no information on.
Jeff Matthews– He and Vanessa Matthews are likely to split the vote by having similar names despite the fact that the last names are spelled slightly different.
Richard “Dick” Palmer– He is a Community Volunteer who I was unable to find much information about through Google.
John Warner– He is also an incumbent on the Central Committee and in my opinion will battle it out with Allan Bartlett for the 6th slot.
The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:
1. Scott Baugh
2. Emily Sanford
3. Don Hansen
4. Rhonda Rohrabacher
5. Thomas A. “T.J.” Fuentes
6. Toss Up John Warner/Allan Bartlett
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Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Allan Bartlett, Bill Dunlap, Christina L. Shea, Daniel Marshall, Don Hansen, Emily Sanford, Gary R. Morse, Greg Baker, Jeff Matthews, John Draper, John Warner, Jon Aiken, Rhonda Rohrabacher, Richard "Dick" Palmer, Scott Baugh, Scott Peotter, Thomas A. "T.J." Fuentes, Vanessa Mathews | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 16, 2012
Yesterday afternoon, the newest winners of the California lottery were announced: Businessman John Webb, Businessman Pat Garcia, Businessman Ron Varaseth, Senator Mimi Walters, Assemblyman Chris Norby, Perennial candidate Christina Avalos, Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly, Businessman Travis Allen, Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, Supervisor Janet Nguyen, former Supervisor/Assemblyman Todd Spitzer, Businesswoman Karla Downing, Central Committee Member Baron Night, Orange Councilman Jon Dumitru, Central Committee Member Gwen Dyrud, Central Committee Member Steve Nagel, San Clemente Planning Commissioner Nesa Anderson, and Office Clerk Jon Aiken.
No, these 19 people are not splitting a $200,000,000 jackpot. They won the Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery.
What’s the candidate order lottery, you ask?
Well, California law requires a lottery to determine the order of candidates on the ballot. Why does this law exist? Studies of the primacy effect showed the candidate at the top of the ballot gains as much as a 5% increase in votes. Consequently, in 1975, California legislators adopted a law mandating an end to the alphabetical listing of candidates (likely to the chagrin of Sam Aanestad and Dick Ackerman but the joy of Mary Young and Ed Zschau) and requiring a lottery before each election.
The Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery has determined the alphabet for the June primary to be UNADIVXWQGOZLTRKSJHMCBFPYE.
This applies to most races on the ballot, excluding races that cross county lines (for OC, these would be CD-38, CD-39, CD-47, CD-49, SD-29, and AD-55).
The primacy effect is weaker when there are fewer candidates on the ballot, and when there are higher-profile campaigns. Being at the top of the ballot is most valuable for low-profile campaigns with large numbers of candidates. That means that of the 19 people I listed above, the biggest winners in this lottery are the Central Committee candidates, so the biggest congratulations goes to the following Republican Central Committee Candidates for their 5% vote bonus:
- 55th District: Karla Downing, Small Business Owner (1st of 10 candidates)
- 65th District: Baron Night, Incumbent (1st of 11 candidates)
- 68th District: Jon Dumitru, City Councilman (1st of 18 candidates)
- 69th District: Gwen A. Dyrud, Appointed Incumbent (1st of 10 candidates)
- 72nd District: Steve A. Nagel, Incumbent (1st of 14 candidates)
- 73rd District: Nesa Anderson, Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman (1st of a stunning 22 candidates)
- 74th District: Jon Aiken, Office Clerk (1st of 16 candidates)
For the races that cross county lines, each county does its own lottery, so here are the OC Registrar’s lottery results: DMNESVTUHKWGXFCIQYAORZPLJB.
Congratulations to these candidates who won the Registrar’s lottery and will appear at the top of the ballot in the Orange County portions of their districts:
- 38th Congressional District: Linda Sanchez (D), United States Representative (1st of 3)
- 39th Congressional District: D’Marie Mulattieri (
DCorrection: NPP), Community Volunteer (1st of 3)
- 47th Congressional District: Gary DeLong (R), Local Small Businessman (1st of 8)
- 49th Congressional District: Albin Novinec (NPP), United States Marine (1st of 4)
- 29th Senate District: Greg Diamond (D), Workers’ Rights Attorney (1st of 2)
- 55th Assembly District: Curt Hagman (R), Member of the State Assembly (1st of 2)
You would think that with electronic voting now, the names could be randomized for every poll voter (obviously, we’d still need the lottery for absentee voters).
(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working for Assemblyman Chris Norby, one of the lottery winners, as the letter N came in second in the alphabet behind U, though no one with a last name starting with U is running in all of Orange County.)
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Posted in 29th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Albin Novinec, Baron Night, Chris Norby, Christina Avalos, Curt Hagman, D'Marie Mulattieri, Diane Harkey, Gary DeLong, Greg Diamond, Gwen Dyrud, Janet Nguyen, John Webb, Jon Aiken, Jon Dumitru, Karla Downing, Leslie Daigle, Linda Sanchez, Mimi Walters, Nesa Anderson, Pat Garcia, Ron Varaseth, Steve Nagel, Todd Spitzer, Tom Daly, Travis Allen | 6 Comments »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on March 12, 2012
The OC GOP Central Committee races have been finalized.
Here are the candidates that qualified for the ballot (top 6 win in each district):
55th Assembly District
Brett Barbre Appointed Incumbent
Jim Domen Pastor
Karla Downing Small Business Owner
Desare Ferraro Small Business Consultant
Peggy Huang Deputy Attorney General
Connie Lanzisera Small Business Owner
Robert Lauten
Brenda McCune Businesswoman/Childrens Advocate
Tim Shaw Mayor, City of La Habra
Dennis R. White Mechanical Engineer
65th Assembly District
Samuel “Sam” Han Appointed Incumbent
Steve Hwangbo Councilman/Businessman/Father
Jerry Jackson Retired Aerospace Engineer
Sou Moua Businessman
Shawn Nelson Orange County Supervisor
Baron Night Incumbent
Greg Sebourn Businessman/Educator
David John Shawver Mayor Pro Tem
Pat Shuff Incumbent
Henry Charoen Mayor/Businessman
Alexandria Coronado Small Business Owner
68th Assembly District
Denis Bilodeau Mayor Pro Tem
James Brownfield Business Owner
Mark William Bucher Incumbent
Steven S. Choi Irvine City Councilman
Jon Dumitru City Councilman
Marcia Gilchrist Incumbent
Ray Grangoff Incumbent
Jeffrey Lalloway Irvine Councilmember/Businessman
Joshua Robert Morales Retail Sales Associate
Walter H. Myers, III Software Consultant
Noel Stone Parrish Businesswoman
Deborah Pauly Councilwoman, City of Villa Park
Lynn Schott Entrepreneur/Educator
Todd Spitzer Businessman/Victims Advocate
Scott “Scotty” Voigts Lake Forest City Councilman
Fred M. Whitaker City of Orange Councilman/Businessman
Ken L. Williams Jr. Member, Orange County Board of Education
Nick Wilson Small Business Owner
69th Assembly District
Cuong Sinh Cao Incumbent
Bryan Carter Software Engineer
Gwen A. Dyrud Appointed Incumbent
Brett Elliott Franklin Incumbent
Thomas Anthony Gordon Incumbent
Robert Morris Hammond Business Owner/Teacher
Charles Hart Appointed Incumbent
Lupe Moreno Office Specialist
Glen Stroud Retired Recreation Supervisor
Timothy “Tim” Ryan Whitacre Incumbent
72nd Assembly District
John W. Briscoe Certified Public Accountant
Dennis R. Catron Small Businessman
Patrick Dooley
Michael E. Gates Businessman/Attorney
Dean Grose Small Business Owner
Matthew Harper Huntington Beach City Councilman
Brian Hoops Special Needs Educator
Diane A. Lenning Small Business Owner
Kermit Marsh Incumbent
Mark McCurdy Fountain Valley City Councilmember
Steve A. Nagel Incumbent
Janet Nguyen Orange County Supervisor
Patricia Ross Homemaker
Mary Tuong Van Pham Businesswoman
73rd Assembly District
Alice Anderson Incumbent
Nesa Anderson Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman
Linda Barnes Community Volunteer
Tony Beall Incumbent
Evan P. Chafee Marketing Sales/Representative
Chandra Chell Computer Systems Analyst
Nina R. Davar Export Assistant Manager
Norm Dickinson Retired Naval Officer
Mark Dobrilovic Financial Advisor
John C. Drew Author/Speaker/Consultant
Dave Duringer Gun Trust Attorney
Jon Steven Fleischman Small Business Owner
Roy Fussell Realtor
Paul Hebbard Certified Public Accountant
Michael Kogus Business Owner
Steve Magdziak Small Business Owner
Mike Munzing Incumbent
Nancy Padberg Governing Board Member, South Orange Co. Community College District
Kevin Richardson Plumbing Contractor
Eric Stolaski Small Business Owner
Greg Woodard Appointed Incumbent
Mary Young Incumbent
74th Assembly District
Jon Aiken Office Clerk
Allan Bartlett Incumbent
Scott Baugh Incumbent
John Draper Businessman
Bill Dunlap General Contractor
Thomas A. “T.J.” Fuentes Businessman
Don Hansen Mayor, City of Huntington Beach
Daniel Marshall Attorney
Jeff Mathews Business Owner
Vanessa A. Matthews Small Business Owner
Gary Morse Retired Business Owner
Richard “Dick” Palmer Community Volunteer
Scott “Scotty” Peotter Businessman/Legislative Analyst
Rhonda Rohrabacher Small Business Owner
Emily Sanford Retired Navy Captain
Christina L. Shea Businesswoman
John Warner Incumbent
This is simply a list of the candidates that qualified for the ballot along with their ballot designations. After the alphabetical lottery we will make some predictions on who we think will actually win these races.
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Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Alan Bartlett, Alexandria Coronado, Alice Anderson, Baron Night, Bill Dunlap, Brenda McCune, Brett Barbre, Brett Elliott Frankln, Brian Hoops, Bryan Carter, Chandra Chell, Charles Hart, Christina L. Shea, Connie Lanzisera, Cuong Sinh Cao, Daniel Marshall, Dave Duringer, David John Shawver, Dean Grose, Deborah Pauly, Denis Bilodeau, Dennis R. Catron, Dennis R. White, Desare Ferraro, Diane A. Lenning, Don Hansen, Emily Sanford, Eric Stolaski, Evan P. Chafee, Fred M. Whitaker, Gary Morse, Glen Stroud, Greg Sebourn, Greg Woodard, Gwen A. Dyrud, Henry Charoen, James Brownfield, Janet Nguyen, Jeff Mathews, Jeffrey Lalloway, Jerry Jackson, Jim Domen, John C. Drew, John Draper, John W. Briscoe, John Warner, Jon Aiken, Jon Dumitru, Jon Steven Fleischman, Joshua Robert Morales, Karla Doowning, Ken L. Williams Jr., Kermit Marsh, Kevin Richardson, Linda Barnes, Lupe Moreno, Lynn Schott, Marcia Gilchrist, Mark Dobrilovic, Mark McCurdy, Mark William Bucher, Mary Tuong Van Pham, Mary Young, Matthew Harper, Michael E. Gates, Michael Kogus, Mike Munzing, Nancy Padberg, Nesa Andersoon, Nick Wilson, Nina R. Davar, Noel Stone Parrish, Norm Dickinson, Pat Shuff, Patricia Ross, Patrick Dooley, Paul Hebbard, Peggy Huang, Ray Grangoff, Rhnda Rohrabacher, Richard "Dick" Palmer, Robert Lauten, Robert Morris Hammond, Roy Fussell, Samuel "Sam" Han, Scott "Scotty" Peotter, Scott "Scotty" Voigts, Scott Baugh, Shawn Nelson, Sou Moua, Steve A. Nagel, Steve Hwangbo, Steve Magdziak, Steven S. Choi, Thomas A. "T.J." Fuentes, Thomas Anthony Gordon, Tim Shaw, Timothy "Tim" Ryan Whitacre, Todd Spitzer, Tony Beall, Vanessa A. Matthews, Walter H. Myers III | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on February 27, 2012
(Re-posted today with updated info. Original post here.)
It was suggested to me in an e-mail that instead of posting a list of names running for these Republican Party Central Committee seats, I should lessen the names and explain who these people are that are running.
I was intrigued by the suggestion and decided to do an update today of each Central Committee race and decided to do it in reverse numerical order (simply because I felt like doing it that way). Let’s start with AD 74 which is currently represented by Assemblyman Allan Mansoor. 
Emily Sanford– She is currently Scott Baugh’s alternate on the Central Committee and has been a volunteer with the OCGOP. I have heard people say nothing but nice things about her.
Christina L. Shea– She is best known for being one of the Republican members of the always fun Irvine City Council. In 2010 she was unable to run for re-election due to term limits.
Allan Bartlett– The leader of the OC Ron Paul fan club. He is a Libertarian leaning Republican that was recently involved in the blocked endorsement of John Campbell. *Incumbent.
John Draper– I don’t know a lot about him, although he is currently on the Central Committee and appears to be part of the tea party wing of the committee. *Incumbent.
Scott Baugh– Currently the Chairman of the Republican Party of Orange County also former Assembly Republican leader. He is usually way out in first place on election night. *Incumbent.
Greg Baker– I could find nothing on him.
Jon Aiken– Jon used to be on the Central Committee and has been a long time volunteer with the OC GOP since at least 2006.
Erik K. Weigand– Erik is one of the really good guys in Orange County politics. He used to be the executive director of the OC GOP and is currently working on the district staff for Assemblyman Jim Silva
Bill Dunlap– He ran for the Central Committee back in 2010 for the 70th district. In fact, he came quite close to winning the seat being just 250 votes short of defeating Allan Bartlett for the 6th and final spot.
Rhonda Rohrabacher– The wife of Congressman Dana Rohrabacher and also a political strategist. She has a lot of knowledge of the OC GOP and how it works. She is not an incumbent, but she will have residual name ID from Dana Rohrabacher.
Thomas A. Fuentes Jr.– The son of popular Republican Party Chairman Tom Fuentes. He was recently appointed to a vacancy on the Central Committee created by the very classy Matt Holder. *Incumbent.
Scott Peotter– He is a conservative attorney and also is best known to those that run in the same circles as members of the Family Action PAC.
Gary R. Morse– I found when searching that he is an organizer with the Newport Mesa Tea Party Patriots.
Vanessa Mathews– I could find nothing on her.
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Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Allan Bartlett, Bill Dunlap, Christina L. Shea, Emily Sanford, Erik K. Weigand, Gary R. Morse, Greg Baker, John Draper, Jon Aiken, Rhonda Rohrabacher, Scott Baugh, Scott Peotter, Vanessa Mathews | 5 Comments »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on February 23, 2012
It was suggested to me in an e-mail that instead of posting a list of names running for these Republican Party Central Committee seats, I should lessen the names and explain who these people are that are running.
I was intrigued by the suggestion and decided to do an update today of each Central Committee race and decided to do it in reverse numerical order (simply because I felt like doing it that way). Let’s start with AD 74 which is currently represented by Assemblyman Allan Mansoor.
Emily Sanford– She is currently Scott Baugh’s alternate on the Central Committee and has been a volunteer with the OCGOP. I have heard people say nothing but nice things about her.
Christina L. Shea– She is best known for being one of the Republican members of the always fun Irvine City Council. In 2010 she was unable to run for re-election due to term limits.
Allan Bartlett– The leader of the OC Ron Paul fan club. He is a Libertarian leaning Republican that was recently involved in the blocked endorsement of John Campbell. *Incumbent.
John Draper– I don’t know a lot about him, although he is currently on the Central Committee and appears to be part of the tea party wing of the committee. *Incumbent.
Scott Baugh– Currently the Chairman of the Republican Party of Orange County also former Assembly Republican leader. He is usually way out in first place on election night. *Incumbent.
Greg Baker– I could find nothing on him.
Jon Aiken– Jon used to be on the Central Committee and has been a long time volunteer with the OC GOP since at least 2006.
Erik K. Weigand– Erik is one of the really good guys in Orange County politics. He used to be the executive director of the OC GOP and is currently working on the district staff for Assemblyman Jim Silva
Bill Dunlap– He ran for the Central Committee back in 2010 for the 70th district. In fact, he came quite close to winning the seat being just 250 votes short of defeating Allan Bartlett for the 6th and final spot.
Rhonda Rohrabacher– The wife of Congressman Dana Rohrabacher and also a political strategist. She has a lot of knowledge of the OC GOP and how it works. She is not an incumbent, but she will have residual name ID from Dana Rohrabacher.
Thomas A. Fuentes Jr.– The son of popular Republican Party Chairman Tom Fuentes. He was recently appointed to a vacancy on the Central Committee created by the very classy Matt Holder. *Incumbent.
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Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Allan Bartlett, Bill Dunlap, Christina L. Shea, Emily Sanford, Erik K. Weigand, Greg Baker, John Draper, Jon Aiken, Rhonda Rohrabacher, Scott Baugh | 3 Comments »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on February 20, 2012
Happy Presidents Day to everybody. Despite the Registrar of Voters being closed today, I thought we could take a look at who had filed for Republican Party Central Committee after the first week (incumbents have a *):
55th Assembly District (Hagman)
Brenda McCune
Tim Shaw
Robert Lauten
65th Assembly District (Norby)
Alex Burrola
Baron Night*
Greg Sebourn
Henry Charoen
Jerry Jackson*
Sou Moua
Pat Shuff*
68th Assembly District (Wagner)
Ken L. Williams Jr.
Noel Stone Parrish
Todd Spitzer*
Marcia Gilchrist*
Deborah Pauly*
Chris Emami (Yes, this is me)
Walter H. Myers III
Lynn Schott*
Nick Wilson
Denis Bilodeau*
69th Assembly District (Solorio)
Lupe Moreno*
Charles Hart
Thomas Anthony Gordon
72nd Assembly District (Silva)
Janet Nguyen*
John W. Briscoe
Mark McCurdy*
Dennis R. Catron
Brian Hoops
Matthew Harper*
Dean Grose*
Kermit Marsh*
73rd Assembly District (Harkey)
Dave Duringer
Mary Young*
Mike Munzing*
Alice Anderson*
Norm Dickinson*
Steve Magdziak
Chandra Chell*
Linda Barnes
74th Assembly District (Mansoor)
Emily Sanford
Allan Bartlett*
Christina Shea
John Draper*
Scott Baugh*
Greg Baker
Jon Aiken
I will try to do another update at the end of this week or early next week with another list of who has pulled papers.
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Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Alex Burrola, Alice Anderson, Allan Bartlett, Baron Night, Brenda McCune, Brian Hoops, Chandra Chell, Charles Hart, Chris Emami, Christina Shea, Dave Duringer, Dean Grose, Deborah Pauly, Denis Bilodeau. Lupe Moreno, Dennis R. Catron, Emily Sanford, Greg Baker, Greg Sebourn, Henry Charoen, Janet Nguyen, Jerry Jackson, John Draper, John W. Briscoe, Jon Aiken, Ken L. Williams Jr., Kermit Marsh, Linda Barnes, Lynn Schott, Marcia Gilchrist, Mark McCurdy, Mary Young, Matthew Harper, Mike Munzing, Nick Wilson, Noel Stone Parrish, Norm Dickinson, Pat Shuff, Robert Lauten, Scott Baugh, Sou Moua, Steve Magdziak, Thomas Anthony Gordon, Tim Shaw, Todd Spitzer, Walter H. Myers III | Leave a Comment »
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