OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Archive for the ‘Fullerton’ Category

Fullerton Recalls Passing, with over 60% each. Kiger at 59%, Sebourn 41% to Rands 25%, Chaffee 41% to Levinson 33%

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on June 5, 2012

Posted in Fullerton | Leave a Comment »

Recalls in Retrospect

Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 29, 2012

Recalls, 1995-2010

Local recalls in California, 1995-2010

There has been much talk about the chances of the Fullerton recalls passing in the press, on other blogs, and even a little here and here on this blog.  (It is recalls, plural, by the way, since it’s technically three recalls in Fullerton on next week’s ballot, one each regarding Don Bankhead, Dick Jones, and Pat McKinley.)

I found an interesting study of local election data from California State University, Sacramento.

(All recalls in this post refer to recalls that qualified for the ballot.  Recalls that failed to qualify for the ballot are excluded because they are not relevant.)

According to the CSUS study, in an average year in California, there are 16 local recalls, of which 66% result in the officeholder being recalled from office.  Specifically, there are 2 county-level recalls, 7 city-level recalls, and 7 school district-level recalls in an average year.

The CSUS data shows that from 1995-2010, there were 256 local recalls, of which 175 recalled the elected official and 81 officeholders hung on to defeat the recall election (a 68% removal rate). Specifically, there were:

  • 35 county-level recalls, in which 24 resulted in the recall of the official and 11 officeholders hung on (a 69% removal rate)
  • 116 city-level recalls, in which 80 resulted in the recall of the official and 36 officeholders hung on (a 69% removal rate)
  • 105 school district-level recalls, in which 65 resulted in the recall of the official and 40 officeholders hung on (a 62% removal rate)

Outside the timeframe of the study, 9 out of 9 city councilmembers subject to recall elections were recalled in 2011.  This bumps city-level recalls to a 71% removal rate for 1995-2011.  4 out of 4 school board members defeated their recall elections in 2011, dropping the school district-level recalls to a 60% removal rate for 1995-2011.  There were no county-level recalls that qualified for the ballot  in California in 2011.  The overall rate for all local California recalls for 1995-2011 remains at 68%, the same rate as for 1995-2010.

Narrowing it down to even years (i.e. regular election years):

  • 8 out of 16 county-level recalls succeeded (a 50% removal rate)
  • 55 out of 79 city-level recalls succeeded (a 70% removal rate)
  • 32 out of 43 school district-level recalls succeeded (a 74% removal rate)

The above numbers are statewide.  Looking closer to home, no Orange County recall has failed since 1996.

  • 2010: Capistrano Unified School District
    Mike Winsten was recalled 61.4%-38.6% and replaced with John Alpay.
    Ken Maddox was recalled 61.3%-38.7% and replaced with Gary Pritchard.
  • 2010: Mission Viejo
    Lance McLean was recalled by a 50.1%-49.9% and replaced with Dave Leckness.
  • 2008: Capistrano Unified School District
    Marlene Draper was recalled 69.3%-30.7% and replaced with Sue Palazzo.
    Sheila Benecke was recalled 69.4%-30.6% and replaced with Ken Maddox, who would ironically be recalled himself in 2010.
  • 2003: Santa Ana Unified School District
    Nativo Lopez was recalled 69.3%-30.7% and replaced with Rob Richardson.
  • 2001: Orange Unified School District
    Martin Jacobson was recalled 51.5%-48.5% and replaced with Melissa Taylor Smith.
    Maureen Aschoff was recalled 50.9%-49.1% and replaced with John Ortega.
    Linda Davis was recalled 51.3%-48.7% and replaced with Kathy Moffat.
  • 1996: Dana Point
    Karen Lloreda defeated a recall effort by a 50.6%-49.4% margin.
    Harold Kaufman defeated a recall effort.
  • 1995: Cypress
    Cecilia Age, Gail Kerry, and Walter Bowman defeated their recalls by a 2-1 margin.
  • Not a local recall per se, but in 1995 in Orange County:
    Assemblywoman Doris Allen was recalled 65.2%-34.8% and replaced with Scott Baugh.

Outside the timeframe of the study:

  • In 1994, the voters of Fullerton recalled Councilmembers Don Bankhead, Buck Catlin, and Molly McClanahan, by 52%-48% margins but left the then-elected City Clerk Anne York in office.  Five months after the recall, Bankhead won a new election to the council where he has remained ever since and is now subject to a recall election next week.  If recalled next week, Bankhead would likely be the first person since the inception of the recall ever to be recalled from the same office twice.
  • In 1989, the voters of Fountain Valley recalled Councilman Fred Voss by a 2-1 margin after he pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor for solicitation after he offered $20 to a prostitute, who was actually an undercover police officer.

(In the interest of full disclosure, I should note my day job is working in the Fullerton office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who served on the Fullerton City Council from 1984-2002, but he was not a target of the 1994 recall.  One of my co-workers in the office is Fullerton City Councilman Bruce Whitaker, who was elected in 2010 and is not a target of the 2012 recall, but he was one of the organizers of the 1994 recall.)

Posted in California, Capistrano Unified School District, Cypress, Dana Point, Fountain Valley, Fullerton, Mission Viejo, Orange County, Orange Unified School District, Santa Ana Unified School District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Democrat Quirk-Silva Gets $200 from RINO Pat McKinley

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 25, 2012

In News that should come as no surprise to anyone RINO Pat McKinley appeared on the campaign finance report of Democrat Sharon Quirk-Silva as a $200 donor. This tells me that McKinley recognizes that he is out the door after the June election.

It should be noted that Kelly’s Army has begun turning on Quirk-Silva because apparently they feel that she used them to attain the Mayorship to give herself a boost for her Assembly campaign.

The $200 check from McKinley was given to the Quirk-Silva campaign on April 6th.

McKinley was police chief for 16 years from 1993-2009 and appears to have been behind the hiring of all of the officers involved in the Kelly Thomas case. Even though he is a Republican, I would argue that he is more liberal than Quirk-Silva in his voting pattern. Bruce Whitaker is truly the gold standard for conservatism in Fullerton. some might even argue that McKinley is the one who created the culture that existed up until recently within the Fullerton Police Department.

Interestingly McKinley is the one who nominated Quirk-Silva to be Mayor. She was selected Mayor unanimously on a 5-0 voice vote (one of the few mistakes that Bruce Whitaker has made in my opinion). Whitaker might have been hoodwinked on this one though, because in fairness Quirk-Silva did nominate Whitaker to be Mayor Pro Tem though the motion was defeated 3-2.

Quirk- Silva is in a tight race for the Assembly against well known Republican Chris Norby. A contribution from McKinley is not a great thing to have turn up in her reports. (In the effort of full disclosure, Custom Campaigns has been hired to do some website work for the Norby campaign).

Posted in 65th Assembly District, Fullerton, State Assembly | Tagged: , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Atlas PAC May 2012 Newsletter & Voter Guide

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 18, 2012

This came over the wire from Atlas PAC on Wednesday (and was re-sent to us by a helpful reader yesterday)…

Atlas PAC Newsletter & Voter Guide   May 16, 2012 
In This Issue
Calendar of Events
Candidate Forum Photos
Stop the Special Interest Money Now Event
June Primary Voter Guide
Atlas PAC Director Featured on Rick Reiff’s Show

Calendar of Events

Stop the Special Interest Money Now Reception

May 23, 2012

Irvine, CA

Del Mar Day at the Races

July 28, 2012

San Diego, CA

The Atlas PAC Board
Lee M. Lowrey
ChairmanChandra Chell
Vice ChairmanDave BartelsJohn Draper

Mary DreyerKurt English
Kathryn FeatherJoe Ludlow

Jeff Mathews

Walter Myers III

Ben Pugh

Stephanie Olsen

Sarah Soss

Mike Tripp

Candidate ForumCandidate Forum 98aCandidate Forum 46aCandidate Forum 45a

Candidate Forum 30a

Candidate Forum 48a

Candidate Forum 103a

Candidate Forum 70a

Candidate Forum 94

Candidate Forum 68a

Like us on Facebook

 Dear,

With the June Primary Election just around the corner, Atlas PAC has updated our list of endorsed candidates for local, state and national elected office.  As always, we will continue to present to our membership candidates that practice our core values of limited government, free market, low taxation, and individual liberty.
Join us this month as we host a fundraising reception for the Stop the Special Interest Money Now Initiative featuring columnist Steve Greenhut and Chapman Law School Professor John Eastman.    Please mark your calendar for our upcoming events and we hope to see you soon.

Atlas PAC Mission Statement

The Atlas PAC mission is to create an environment of business professionals that believe in the ideals of limited government, free market enterprise, low taxation, and individual liberty to associate, network, and socialize with like-minded individuals. Through this association, the Atlas PAC supports like-minded candidates and issues through its monetary and political support.

StopSpecialInterest v4A

June Primary Voter Guide
National Ted Cruz – U.S. Senate, TXJeff Flake – U.S. Senate, AZ

George Allen – U.S. Senate, VA

Josh Mandell – U.S. Senate, OH

Richard Mourdock – U.S. Senate, IN

Jason Chaffetz – US Congress, UT

Eric Cantor – US Congress, VA

Paul Ryan – US Congress, WI

Allen West – US Congress, FL

Michele Bachmann – US Congress, MN

California

 

Tom McClintock – U.S. Congress District 4

Tony Strickland – U.S. Congress District 26

Ed Royce – U.S. Congress District 39

John Webb – US Congress District 45

Jerry Hayden – US Congress District 46

Gary DeLong – US Congress District 47

Dana Rohrabacher – US Congress District 48

Darrell Issa – US Congress District 49

Duncan Hunter, Jr. – US Congress District 50

Bill Emerson – State Senate District 23

Bob Huff – State Senate District 29

Jeff Miller – State Senate District 31

Mimi Walters – State Senate District 37

Tim Donnelly – State Assembly District 33

Mike Morrell – State Assembly District 40

Curt Hagman – State Assembly District 55

Eric Linder – State Assembly District 60

Joe Ludwig – State Assembly District 61

Chris Norby – State Assembly District 65

Craig Huey – State Assembly District 66

Phil Paule – State Assembly District 67

Don Wagner – State Assembly District 68

Diane Harkey – State Assembly District 73

Allan Mansoor – State Assembly District 74

Rocky Chavez – State Assembly District 76

Carl DeMaio – San Diego Mayor

Proposition 28 – No

Proposition 29 – No

Orange County   

Janet Nguyen – OC Supervisor, District 1

Robert Hammond– Orange County Board of Education, Area 1
Ken Williams– Orange County Board of Education, Area 3
Greg Sebourn – Fullerton City Council

Ethan Temianka – Mesa Water District

Orange County Republican Party Central Committee

55th AD – Tim Shaw, Jim Domen, Desare Ferraro

65th AD – Baron Night, Shawn Nelson, Greg Sebourn, Steve Hwangbo, Henry Charoen, Pat Shuff

68th AD – Jon Dumitru, Ken Williams, Lynn Schott, Walter Myers III, Mark Bucher, Denis Bilodeau

69th AD – Thomas Gordon, Charles Hart, Robert Hammond, Lupe Moreno, Cuong Sinh Cao

72nd AD – Janet Nguyen, Dean Grose, Matthew Harper, Mark McCurdy, Dennis Catron, John Briscoe

73rd AD – Chandra Chell, Mike Munzing, Mary Young, Tony Beall, Linda Barnes, Greg Woodard, Jon Fleischman

74th AD – Pick among the following:  John Draper, Jeff Mathews, Allan Bartlett, John Warner, Bill Dunlap, Scott Baugh, Scott Peotter, Rhonda Rohrabacher, Emily Sanford, Christina Shea, Don Hansen, T.J. Fuentes

Atlas PAC Director Featured on Rick Reiff’s SoCal Insider Show
Walter Myers III Participates in Occupy Vs. Tea Party Debate
walter - rick reiff show
Click to watch video
Atlas PAC Director Walter Myers III debates with an Occupy Los Angeles activist.  Watch as they discuss what their protest movements represent as well as their respective sides’ take on taxes, government, and capitalism.  Decide for yourself who the clear winner is for this debate.
About Atlas PAC

Atlas is a politically based membership organization made up of business, political, and community professionals who share a passion for free enterprise, limited government, reduced government regulatory burdens, low taxation, and individual liberty. Atlas furthers its ideals by funding candidates and causes who aggressively advocate the values of Atlas.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Fullerton, Mesa Consolidated Water District, Orange County Board of Education, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Fullerton Recall

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 19, 2012

Now to one of the more controversial items on the ballot for this June in the Fullerton recall election. This race has been extremely vicious by both camps, and a lot is at stake with the Council majority up for grabs.

This race unlike other in this election is for 6 different things:

3 recalls

3 races to replace the recalled Councilmember (If recall passes)

The 3 Councilmembers up for recall include Don Bankead, Dick Jones, and Pat McKinley. Much question exists as to the real reason for the recall.

One side claims that the recall is because the Council has done a horrible job over the Kelly Thomas killing incident among other failures such as an alleged illegal water tax. The other side claims that Tony Bushala is simply trying to undo the results of the 2010 election and gain control of the Fullerton City Council.

The major factor at play here is that recalls once on the ballot never fail. This my prediction on the recall side of these races is:

All 3 Councilmembers Ousted

Unlike my other predictions the post does not stop with just that. A replacement must be made for each of the recalled Councilmembers.

The candidates running for the Don Bankhead seat include:

Rick Alvarez a Businessowner/Planning Commissioner who is a Republican. His appointment to the commission was actually by Don Bankhead.

Jane Rands a Systems Engineer and Green Party activist. She has run for quite a few offices in this area which will give her some name ID.

Greg Sebourn a Businessman/Educator and candidate for the Fullerton City Council in 2010. He is a Republican and the one mostly closely in line with the pro-recall folks.

Paula Williams a Public Employee and the only Democrat on the ballot for this seat.

The recall will pass but the elections for a replacement will likely come down to name ID and ballot designation. Greg Sebourn and Jane Rands will split the vote based on highest name ID leaving this seat to the candidate with the best ballot designation.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Rick Alvarez

The candidates running for the Dick Jones seat include:

Dorothy A. Birsic a Republican running with no ballot designation.

Glenn P. Georgieff an IT Specialist anda former Fullerton Library Trustee. He is a registered Democrat.

Matthew Hakim a Musician/Artist and registered Democrat.

Travis Kiger a Fullerton Planning Commissioner and the most closely in line with the pro-recall folks. He is a registered Republican.

Roberta J. Reid a student that is a DTS voter.

Once again this will likely come down to name ID and ballot designation. Travis Kiger has the best ballot designation out of all candidates in any of the 3 seats and he also has the highest name ID and the most comprehensive campaign being run. Nobody else has been actively in the mail, walking precincts, or putting up signs.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Travis Kiger

The candidates running for the Pat McKinley seat include:

Doug Chafee a Business Attorney and 2010 candidate for City Council. He is a registered Democrat and also a Fullerton Planning Commissioner.

Barry Levinson an Auditor/Parks Commissioner who is probably one of the most passionate people about local issues that I have ever seen. He is a registered Republican.

Sean Paden a Construction Attorney and a registered Republican.

Matthew Rowe an Aerospace Project Manager and a DTS voter.

This will be the closest of all 3 races. Barry Levinson has the best ballot designation in this race, however,  we have already witnessed him and Doug Chafee on the ballot in 2010. Chafee has the highest name ID of any candidate in this race yet he and Sean Paden split votes based on ballot designation.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district and mostly based on 2010 results I believe that the winner will be:

Doug Chafee

Posted in Fullerton | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 40 Comments »

NOCCC’s Meet the Candidates Night: Central Committee, City Councils (Yorba Linda, Placentia, Fullerton, Anaheim), 3rd Supervisorial District, CD-45

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 13, 2012

North Orange County Conservative CoalitionThe North Orange County Conservative Coalition held a meet the candidates night last night in Anaheim Hills.  By my quick crowd estimate, I believe 75-100 people were present.

Desare’ Ferraro organized the meeting which was guest emceed by Orange County Register writer Brian Calle.  Calle also brought the students from the “Mass Media Ethics” course he teaches at Cal State Fullerton.

Deborah Pauly and John Webb were crowd pleasers.  Todd Spitzer sent a video camera to film Pauly.

I was shocked to see John Leos speak.

Here’s a run down of the remarks by various candidates (please note that I am paraphrasing what the candidates said; I haven’t run a fact-check on the numerical data several of them asserted; also, I was attempting to write as fast as candidates spoke, so apologies to any candidates for incorrect transcriptions; please feel free to comment below with corrections).

Central Committee

Oddly, candidates for the Republican Party Central Committee did not get a chance to speak.  They were only introduced by Calle, stood as a group at the front, and then sat back down.

The Central Committee candidates present were:

55th District

  • Jim Domen
  • Desare’ Ferraro
  • Connie Lanzisera
  • Robert Lauten
  • Brenda McCune (our OC Political blogger)
  • Dennis R. White

65th District

  • Greg Sebourn
  • Pat Shuff

68th District

  • James Brownfield
  • Deborah Pauly
  • Nick Wilson

There was a 12th candidate present, but I did not catch the candidate’s name, and the candidate failed to sign in on the NOCCC’s candidate sign-in sheet.

Yorba Linda City Council

After the Central Committee mass introduction, the first speakers were candidate for the Yorba Linda City Council.

Incumbent Councilwoman Nancy Rikel spoke first.  She spoke of her successful efforts on Measure B (any major zoning change that exceeds housing densities in Yorba Linda’s current zoning and/or General Plan must be approved by a majority vote), her battles against eminent domain, and her efforts to pass an ethics measure.  In response to a question from the audience, she described the process to determine Yorba Linda’s police contract.

Candidate Jim Domen spoke second.  He spoke of his co-founding of NOCCC.  He also described how he became President of his homeowners association.  He felt it was analogous to government: before his presidency, the HOA kept raising dues, similarly to the government raising taxes; during his presidency, he opposed raising dues and used his business experience to cut spending, as government should cut spending instead of raising taxes.  He also spoke of his background as a Yorba Linda native and his international business and economics education.  In response to a question from the audience, he stated that he supported doing price comparisons between different police agencies in determining the Yorba Linda police contract.

Placentia City Council

Incumbent Councilman Jeremy Yamaguchi (currently serving as Mayor) made a joke about his council service giving him gray hair (he’s 23), and then spoke of his record fighting for fiscally conservative policies, protection of private property, reduction of business regulations, and holding the line against unions.  He noted his battle against a strange proposal to regulate Placentia garage sales and against borrowing money for a parking structure for the Placentia train station for a train that doesn’t yet exist.  In response to a question from the audience, he stated the only Councilmember to not vote for forming an Economic Development Commission was Connie Underhill, who he noted had been on the Placentia City Council for nearly his entire life.

Fullerton Recall Candidates

Greg Sebourn, who is running in the race to replace Don Bankhead, spoke of the illegal water fee that spiked residents water bills by 10%, which went to the general fund.  He stated that 80% of the general fund goes to employee pensions, salaries, and benefits.

Barry Levinson, who is running in the race to replace Pat McKinley, spoke of how ill-prepared recall targets Bankhead, McKinley, and Dick Jones seem at meetings; it seems to him that the trio don’t even read their council agendas before showing up to meetings.  He spoke of a Stanford study that found Fullerton’s unfunded pension liability is $500 million.  He spoke of Fullerton being targetted by a dozen lawsuits that could cost the city $100 million, thanks to McKinley (police chief until shortly before he ran for Council) and the Fullerton Police Department.  He noted those two figures totaled $600 million, while Fullerton’s general fund is $65 million.

Rick Alvarez, who is running in the race to replace Don Bankhead, spoke of his family’s immigrant background.  He said he is running as a uniter not a divider.  He also noted he is a Planning Commissioner and Traffic Commissioner.

Anaheim City Council

Brian Chuchua spoke of his opposition to the plan to permit the GardenWalk Hotel to retain $158 million (80%) of the transient occupancy tax (TOT) the hotel collects while the City does not allow any other hotel to do the same.  He stated the transient occupancy tax is 43% of Anaheim’s general fund.  He said he was removed as an Anaheim Chamber Ambassador due to this position on this issue.  In response to a question from the audience, he said he is opposed to the high-speed rail project.

I was shocked by who spoke next.

John Leos opened with, “Talk about walking into the lion’s den.”  He noted that his family immigrated to Anaheim 100 years ago.  He graduated from Canyon High School (author’s note: Emami and I are also Canyon grads), which is literally a block away from the site of the NOCCC meeting.  He stated he is a labor union member, and labor is very divided on the $158 million GardenWalk Hotel TOT plan, but that Leos himself opposed the plan.

Third District Supervisor

While being filmed by a representative of the Todd Spitzer campaign, Deborah Pauly spoke to the NOCCC.  She stated the Board of Supervisors needs “at least one limited government fiscal conservative who represents the people.”  She then noted the cameraman, stared straight into the camera and declared her opponent to be a “retread, big government, special interest career politician.”  She pointed to Spitzer’s brochure which has the word integrity right under his picture and stated his consultant believed Spitzer has an intergrity problem.  She stated Spitzer waves around a flyer showing he got an “A” rating from the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association during his tenure in the Assembly, but she stated Spitzer sent a $1000 check to to get their endorsement, but the check was refused, as the HJTA “cannot be bought.”  She then showed a letter from HJTA endorsing her, not Spitzer, for the Third Supervisorial District seat.  She noted in December 2001 that Spitzer not only voted for 3%@50, but he actually made the motion to pass 3%@50 during his previous stint as Supervisor.  She disputed his statements that no one understood the costs of 3%@50 at the time, as she pointed to a November 2001 actuarial report that was in the Board of Supervisors agenda that she stated warned about the costs of implementing 3%@50.

In response to a question from the audience about the well-known video of her speaking in Yorba Linda, Pauly said she was not speaking about “peaceful moderate Muslims” but of two specific men from the Muslim brotherhood, including Malik Ali.

In response to a question from the audience, she noted that Supervisors John Moorlach and Shawn Nelson had not endorsed either candidate in the Third Supervisorial District and that Supervisors Pat Bates and Janet Nguyen endorsed Spitzer because “apparently, they like money.”

In response to a bizarre question from the audience about the Republican Party equalizing funding for candidates to stop multimillionaire candidates (author’s note: I think the audience member mistakenly thought the $1 million Spitzer warchest was Spitzer’s personal wealth rather than the fact that Spitzer raised all of that money and is not independently wealthy), Pauly stated Scott Baugh was “falling all over” himself to endorse Spitzer.  Pauly noted that voters don’t like the feeling of being purchased in an election.  She praised the Stop Special Interest Money Now ballot initiative.

In response to a question from the audience, Pauly stated she has not decided on Laura’s Law, as there needs to be a balance between helping people with great need and the potential to abuse the law with false mental health allegations.

Spitzer’s cameraman spoke next, stating he’s a volunteer.  He spoke of Spitzer helping his family on a crime issue.  He stated that he (the cameraman not Spitzer) is a Coptic Christian and that the Muslim Brotherhood is in Egypt not the United States.  He stated Spitzer was speaking at the Mission Viejo Tea Party on Monday (a Tea Party Patriot organizer in the audience shouted out it was a false tea party) and invited NOCCC to attend.  The cameraman also invited the audience to attend Spitzer’s open house on Tuesday.

In response to a question from the audience, the cameraman could not confirm or deny if Spitzer would serve a full four-year term.

In response to a question from the audience, the cameraman stated Spitzer was not present due to a scheduling conflict with a long-scheduled open coffee in Irvine.

45th Congressional District

John Webb spoke of his goal of changing the tax structure, restraining the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and supporting energy independence to ensure “no more wars for oil.”

In response to a question from the audience, Webb said he is personally opposed to the California Air Resources Board, calling it a bad idea from the 1960s when “we smoked dope.”  He, however, stated he was for states’ rights, implying Congress should not interfere with CARB.

In response to a question from the audience, Webb stated that if elected, he would be the sole member of Congress from Orange County who has combat experience.  He cited his military record, his record as a robbery/homicide detective, and his business record.  He stated President Barack Obama has committed impeachable offenses.

In response to a question from the audience, he stated the differences between himself and incumbent Congressman John Campbell is that Campbell voted fro TARP, Cash for Clunkers, and Sarbanes-Oxley expansion while Webb would have voted against those actions.  Webb also stated Campbell was one of only two Congressmen to vote against the STOCK Act.  Webb also said he heard a rumor that Campbell introduced legislation to control the type of bait used in Montana.

In response to a question from the audience, Webb said he would do not just town hall meetings but would go to voters’ homes.

In response to a question from the audience, Webb said he would fly on commercial airlines between Washington, DC and Orange County if elected, very likely on Southwest Airlines.

U.S. Senate

Robert Lauten spoke about wanting to revive the Glass-Steagall Act, to declare U.S. debt fictional, to implement a Hamiltonian economic system, and wanting to abolish the Federal Reserve.  He also accused “State Treasurer Richard Citron” of causing the 1994 Orange County bankruptcy (author’s note: for the record, it was County Treasurer-Tax Collector Robert Citron).

The audience looked at Lauten like he was completely nuts.

Wrap Up

All of the above was done in 90 minutes.  The program was slated for 60 minutes and was running on schedule until the Third Supervisorial District and 45th Congressional District ran over time and took up nearly half the program.

(Disclaimer related to Fullerton recall section above: In the interest of full disclosure, I should note my day job is working in the Fullerton office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who served on the Fullerton City Council from 1984-2002.  One of my co-workers in the office is Fullerton City Councilman Bruce Whitaker, who was elected in 2010 and is not a target of the recall.)

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District, 45th Congressional District, Anaheim, Fullerton, Placentia, Republican Central Committee, Yorba Linda | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Will the Fullerton Recall Succeed?

Posted by OC Insider on April 5, 2012

In OC Republican circles, the group consensus seems to be that the success of the Fullerton recall is a foregone conclusion. But is it?

Tony Bushala, the Fullerton developer and owner of the Friends for Fullerton’s Future blog, has spent at least $173,000 ($20K of it from his brother George) to qualify the recall against Fullerton councilmembers Don Bankhead, Dick Jones and Pat McKinley. Due to the timing of when Bushala turned in the signatures, the recall and replacement special elections will be consolidated with the June 5 primary.

Bushala has formed a new committee, Fullerton Residents for Reform, which will be the funding vehicle through which he pays for mail supporting his chosen candidates.

It’s easy to understand why people think the recall is a foregone conclusion: Bushala is a multi-millionaire who is completely focused on the recall, is willing to spend huge sums on it, and the recall targets are old and tired. Plus, there seems to be grass roots support for the recall.

On the other hand, there may be some wishful thinking by recall supporters. Generally speaking, it’s unlikely voters will recall local elected officials like councilmembers, especially ones they’ve been returning to office for years, unless they a) believe there is something seriously wrong with their city and b) voting for a recall will solve the problem(s).

Fullerton is a great and desirable place to live, and I’d be surprised is a majority of voters there think the city is in bad shape, let alone the train wreck recall supporters make it out to be. Plus, leading indicators of a genuine grass-roots campaign are missing. Many of those who show up for recall events or to harangue the council are from outside Fullerton, and outside Orange County. Grass roots would show up in the form of Fullerton residents making donations, small or large, to the recall campaign, yet a review of the campaign finance disclosures show only two Fullerton donors whose last name isn’t Bushala.

Look at it another way. Their genuine outrage at the tragic and senseless killing of Kelly Thomas aside, Bushala and his group took advantage of that situation to basically get a do-over of the 2010 council elections. The primary issues cited by recall supporters are the Kelly Thomas killing and a decades-old 10% water surcharge that turns out to be illegal.

The District Attorney is prosecuting two Fullerton policemen for murdering Thomas and the city’s movement to end the 10% water surcharge let a lot of the air out of those issues. As far as most voters who pay attention to city government see it, those issues are more or less being resolved, weakening the case that the solution is recalling Bankhead, McKinley and Jones.

Recalls are hard to win. In 2001, three Orange Unified School District trustees (one of whom was under house arrest) were recalled, but only after years of controversy and district actions generated wide-spread parent dissatisfaction. Parents organized and teamed with the teachers union to qualify a recall. Even so, the three trustees were recalled by very narrow margins, even though they didn’t work very hard to save their seats.

There are some similarities between the Fullerton recall and the 2010 recall of Mission Viejo Councilman Lance MacLean. In Mission Viejo in 2009, a vocal group of council critics initiated a recall against MacLean in 2009, in hopes of replacing him with one of themselves. Their signature gathering met with slow going and ultimately one of the recall leaders spent thousands of dollars to hire professional circulators to get it on the ballot. The recall election was held in February 2010. MacLean, who only campaigned actively to against his recall in the last few weeks, was recalled by a paper-thin margin of 19 votes out of 14,721 cast. And even that was rendered moot when recall leader Dale Tyler was defeated in the replacement election by Dave Leckness.

The Fullerton recall campaign leaders may have made a major strategic error by submitting their signatures almost a month before the February 16 deadline. If they had waited until that date, the recall/replacement elections would have been a stand-alone special election, probably in July, in which the low-turnout would tilt the odds in favor of the recall. Instead, the recall has been consolidated with the June primary, in which voter turn-out is expected to be in the mid-40 percent. Turn-out in a stand-alone special election would be half that.

The OUSD and Mission Viejo recalls were stand-alone special elections, in which voter turn-out was 21% and 23.9%, respectively. In both cases, the recalls only narrowly succeeded against politically inept incumbents who only sluggishly contested their recalls.

Which is another similarity with the Fullerton recall, one that argues in favor of its success. Dick Jones, Don Bankhead or Pat McKinley don’t appear to be working very hard to save their seats. Jones’ council term ends this December, so he may not care one way or another. Fullerton voters recalled Bankhead in October 1994, and then voted him back on the council a few weeks later, so he’s probably adopting a que sera, sera attitude toward the whole business.

Even if all three councilmembers are recalled, there’s no guarantee they will be replaced by recall supporters. Their best shot is in the Dick Jones seat, where Friends for Fullerton Future blogger and close Bushala ally Travis Kiger is running. Kiger has some big advantages: he can use his planning commissioner title, and he is the only replacement candidate in that seat who paid for a candidate statement in the sample ballot. If Jones is recalled, Kiger is almost certain to replace him.

A number of candidates who ran and lost for Fullerton Council in 2010 are running in the other two replacement elections. Running in the Bankhead seat is Greg Sebourn, a Bushala ally who finished a fairly distant fourth in the 2010 council election. Also running is a Rick Alvarez, who is more or less the establishment candidate. We’ll see if Alvarez can run a strong campaign, and whether Sebourn will run a better campaign than in 2010.

In the McKinley seat, the replacement candidates include Doug Chaffee, Barry Levinson and Matthew Rowe. Chaffee is a Democrat and establishment-type who fell only 90 votes short of being elected to the council in 2010. Levinson is more of Tea Party-type who finished 5th in 2010 with 10.6% of the vote. Rowe is a young-ish, conservative Iraq War veteran.

Even if voters support all three recalls, recall supporters may win only one of the seats. With the exception of Chaffee and Levinson, none of the replacement candidates have shown much ability to raise or loan themselves meaningful campaign warchests. At the end of the day, the election prospects of Kiger, Sebourn and either Levinson or Rowe will largely depend on how money Tony Bushala spends on their behalf through his Fullerton Residents for Reform independent expenditure committee.

All in all, it’s premature to conclude the recalls of Bankhead, Jones and McKinley are sure things. Odds of a successful recall are probably, at this moment, about 50-50.

Posted in Fullerton | Tagged: , , , , | 15 Comments »

OC’s Worst Ballot Designations

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 29, 2012

Ballot designations are the only piece of information that appear directly on the ballot other than a candidate's name.

The most important thing a candidate does in a campaign may well be selecting a ballot designation.  That little phrase underneath a candidate’s name are the last piece of information that voters see before casting their ballots.  In low-profile races (like Central Committee, where you can’t even get a candidate’s statement in the sample ballot), that little phrase may well be the only piece of information that voters see before casting their ballots.

Adam Probolsky has written about good and bad ballot designations, on (I believe) both Flash Report and old Red County, and he’s spoken about them in the press.  Inspired by his old commentary, I now present to you Orange County’s worst ballot designations (I’ll write about Orange County’s best ballot designations next week).

OC’s Ten Worst Ballot Designations

I would be shocked if any of these people with truly awful ballot designations win (with the possible exception of Lupe Moreno, who might be able to overcome her awful designation with her high name ID):

  1. Student (Roberta J. Reid in the Fullerton Recall, Kathryn Pena in the 73rd District Democratic Central Committee)
    The electorate does not vote for students.  Sorry, life’s unfair, but voters will not vote for a student.  Some of you will point to young candidates who have been elected, but guess what, they didn’t use the “Student” ballot designation.
    My advice to students running for office: pick “Community Volunteer” if you don’t have a job or “Businessman” or “Businesswoman” if you have a job (even a part-time job).
  2. Musician, Artist (Matthew Hakim in the Fullerton Recall)
    What on earth makes a musician or an artist qualified to hold elected office?  People like to listen to music and to look at art, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to vote for musicians or artists.
    My advice to musicians and artists running for office: pick “Businessman” or “Businesswoman”
  3. Homemaker (Patricia Ross in the 72nd District Republican Central Committee)
    While homemakers are absolutely essential to the well-functioning of people’s homes and ultimately, society, people are unwilling to vote for homemakers for elected office.  Sorry, as with students, life is unfair, and voters will not cast their ballots for homemakers.
    My advice to homemakers running for office: pick “Community Volunteer”
  4. Self-Employed Hairdresser (Heidi A. Bressler in the 74th District Democratic Central Committee)
    Why is anyone going to vote for a hairdresser?  Voters aren’t going to go for that.  What special attributes does a hairdresser bring to elected office?
    My advice to self-employed hairdressers running for office: pick “Small Business Owner” or “Businesswoman/Entrepreneur”
  5. Office Specialist (Lupe Moreno in the 69th District Republican Central Committee)
    What is an office specialist?  I think it’s something clerical.  (For the record, this is the County’s description.) If Lupe Moreno wins, it’ll be due to her long-term name ID in spite of her ballot designation.
    My advice to office specialists running for office: “Office Coordinator” or “Analyst” makes you sound more impressive.
  6. Plumbing Contractor (Kevin Richardson in the 73rd District Republican Central Committee)
    Unless you’re Joe the Plumber, I really don’t think voters are going to vote for anyone with “Plumbing” as part of their ballot designation.  People just aren’t big fans of plumbers.  Think of all the stereotypes of plumbers, and they aren’t flattering.
    My advice to plumbing contractors running for office: pick “Small Businessman” or “Business Contractor”
  7. Retail Sales Associate (Joshua Robert Morales in the 68th District Republican Central Committee)
    Why would voters cast their ballots for a retail sales associates?  What makes a retail sales associate uniquely qualified for office?
    My advice to retail sales associates running for office: “Businessman” or “Businesswoman”
  8. Retired Executive Secretary (Heide Krueger in the 74th District Democratic Central Committee)
    Executive secretaries are key players in what happens in an office and control access to the executives.  However, life’s unfair, and many people lack respect for the position and will not vote for one.
    My advice to [retired] executive secretaries running for office: “[Retired] Businesswoman” or “[Retired] Businessman”
  9. Executive Assistant (Erin Shawn in the 73rd District Democratic Central Committee)
    Executive assistants have virtually the same problem as executive secretaries, though there may be some people who make distinctions between the assistants and secretaries.
    My advice to executive assistants running for office: “Businesswoman” or “Businessman”
  10. Retired Recreation Supervisor (Glen Stroud in the 69th District Republican Central Committee)
    What would motivate people to vote for a recreation supervisor?  Stroud’s claims to fame as being a twice-ousted Santa Ana City Commissioner and a grand juror likely does not produce high enough name ID to overpower this bad ballot designation.
    My advice to [retired] recreation supervisors running for office: “[Retired] County Manager” or “[Retired] City Supervisor” (Stroud is the former, FYI); unfortunately, these are not interchangeable as “[Retired] County Supervisor” and “[Retired] City Manager” would be unacceptable due to their wildly different meanings.

(In all cases above from my advice, businessman/businesswoman/businessperson are interchangeable, of course.)

Worst Set of Ballot Designations in One Race: CD-46

  • Escrow Company Owner (Pat Garcia, Republican)
  • Tax Accountant (Jorge Rocha, Republican)
  • United States Representative – 47th District (Loretta Sanchez, Incumbent Democrat)
  • Local Independent Businessman (Jerry Hayden, Republican)
  • Strategy Manager/Accountant (John J. Cullum, Republican)

The old saying, “less is more” applies to all five of these ballot designations.  None of these in and of themselves would make the list of worst ballot designations, but collectively, they are the worst set of any one race.

  • Garcia should have just gone with “Small Business Owner” as his ballot designation.  I can’t imagine there’s a huge voter base of escrow officers.
  • Rocha should have just gone with “Accountant” or “Businessman” because a “Tax Accountant” sounds like some horrible agent of the IRS even though his job is actually helping people battle the IRS.
  • Sanchez should have left her district number off.  She inadvertently makes herself look like a carpetbagger when really her district was simply renumbered.  Fortunately for her, she has very high name ID in her district (high even for an incumbent) and throughout the county, and frankly it’s still by far the best ballot designation in this contest.
  • Hayden slapped on too many adjectives and picked odd wording.  People are more used to “Small Businessman” than “Independent Businessman” in their common vernacular.  Indeed, “Local Independent Businessman” sounds much colder and unfriendly than “Local Small Businessman” as a ballot designation.
  • On Cullum: what exactly is a Strategy Manager anyway?

So those are Orange County’s worst ballot designations.  I’ll write next week about Orange County’s best ballot designations.

(In the interest of full disclosure, I should note my day job is working in the Fullerton office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who served on the Fullerton City Council from 1984-2002.  One of my co-workers in the office is Fullerton City Councilman Bruce Whitaker, who was elected in 2010 and is not a target of the recall.  Since I referenced him at the start of this post, I should also note I have not spoken to Adam Probolsky [nor Chris Norby or Bruce Whitaker, for that matter] about this post, although I hope he would be in agreement with my analysis above.  The opinions expressed in this post are exclusively my own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Chris Norby, Bruce Whitaker, or Adam Probolsky.)

Posted in 46th Congressional District, Fullerton, Orange County, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

Norby Vs. Quirk: Most Interesting Race in Orange County

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on March 13, 2012

A surprise race that I did not think would happen this election is Fullerton Mayor Sharon Quirk-Silva challenging sitting Assemblyman Chris Norby.

The banner for Chris Norby:

The banner for Sharon Quirk-Silva.

What surprised me the most about this matchup is that Sharon Quirk-Silva will have to give up her council seat to run for this office. Most elected officials wait until midterm or when they are termed out to run for higher office. It wouldn’t be that important were it not for the fact that Fullerton has become a major fight between Republicans and Democrats.

Quirk-Silva was the last remaining Democrat on the City Council, although she was a bit more conservative than the trio that will likely be recalled in June. With my prediction being Greg Sebourn, Travis Kiger, and Barry Levinson winning the three council seats after the recall.

Republicans hold a 2 point registration advantage in AD 65 and Fullerton is the hub of this district. The problem for Quirk-Silva is that Norby is also from Fullerton and he is known outside of Fullerton as well. With DTS voter leaning a bit more conservative in this area I would have to say advantage Norby.

Norby has been one of the staunchest supporters of eliminating RDA’s and he was successful this year in eliminating them. He has also been a solid conservative voice in the Republican circles up in Sacramento. I figure that with AD 69 facing a Democratic Party money war this will free up more Republican money for this seat.

Norby should by no means rest on his laurels, but if I were a betting man I would bet on Norby to beat Quirk-Silva in June and that the Republicans will control all 5 council seats in Fullerton.

Posted in 65th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, Fullerton | Tagged: , , , , | 8 Comments »

Filing Recap: OC Dems’ Worst-Case Scenario Thanks to OCGOP Coups; AD-72 in Disarray; Spitzer, Pauly, & Rocco; Fullerton Recall Lineup Set; State Senate Races

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 12, 2012

Whole Lot of Candidates

Robert Hammond, Tom Daly, Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, Paco Barragan, Long Pham, Troy Edgar, Travis Allen, Joe Dovinh, Allan Mansoor, Leslie Daigle, Robert Rush, Albert Ayala, Todd Spitzer, Deborah Pauly, Janet Nguyen, and Steve Rocco. Not pictured for space considerations: Matt Harper, Tyler Diep, Bob Huff, Greg Diamond, Mimi Walters, Steve Young, and the 13 Fullerton Recall Candidates

Friday was such a busy candidate filing day that we still haven’t finished all our coverage of candidate filing action here on OC Political, but for those of you who weren’t reading over the weekend, here’s a quick rundown/annotated table of contents of what we’ve covered so far:

The big news that dominated our coverage was the AD-69/AD-72/OCBE chaos:

  • OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario Comes True: Coups Benefit Republicans in AD-69 & AD-74
    Republicans had long feared an all-Republican battle between Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, which would eat up Republican human and financial resources in both June and November.  There were further fears that Democrats would cast their votes for Daigle to oust the more conservative Mansoor.  These fears proved unfounded when Democrat Robert Rush qualified for the ballot.
    However, the scenario Republicans feared in AD-74 became the scenario Democrats face in AD-69.  Republican Robert Hammond pulled out of the AD-69 race, leaving four Democrats to face only each other in a bloody intra-party battle in June.  Then the top two of those four will face each other again in a bloody intra-party battle in November.  AD-69 will eat up Democratic human and financial resources in November when they could have been spending their time, energy, and money battling Republicans.
    (Prop 14 made this possible by eliminating traditional primaries, and requiring the top two candidates from the June primary to advance to the November general election, even if they’re from the same party, even if someone broke 50% in June, and even if there were only two candidates in June.)
  • Hammond Enters OCBE Race & Withdraws from AD-69, Producing OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario
    Republican Robert Hammond withdrew from the AD-69 race to enter the race for Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 1.  It was Hammond’s withdrawal from AD-69 that left Democrats in a bloody intra-party war in November, locking up Democratic resources to attack Democrats instead of Republicans.  OCBE 1 is held by conservative Republican Long Pham, who made all this possible by vacating his seat to run for AD-72.
  • AD-72: Five Candidates (Two Democrats, Three Republicans) Running
    The Republicans in the AD-72 race are OCBE Trustee Long Pham, Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar, and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.  The Democrats are Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh and 89-year-old Tea Party Democrat Albert Ayala.
  • Matt Harper opts out of 72 AD race
    Not among the candidates was Huntington Beach Councilman Matt Harper who announced his withdrawal on the final day of filing.  Just five weeks ago, the Republican line-up in AD-72 was expected to be Harper, Long Pham, and Westminster Councilman Tyler Diep.  Now Harper and Diep are out, replaced by Troy Edgar and Travis Allen.
  • Bizarre Travis Allen Strategy in AD-72: Alienate Non-Huntington Beach Voters and Declare Los Alamitos to Be “Foreign”
    With Matt Harper out and Travis Allen jumping in the race in the final days of filing, Allen certainly made a splash, with a pair of bizarre press releases that attacked Harper for endorsing “Foreign Candidate” Troy Edgar.

After all the AD-69/AD-72/OCBE chaos, how could we forget the legendary Spitzer-Pauly showdown?  And Steve Rocco!

  • Board of Supervisors: Two Crazy Races on the Docket
    The well-anticipated fiery battle for the Third Supervisorial District is proceeding as expected, with former Assemblyman/Supervisor Todd Spitzer and Villa Park Councilwoman Deborah Pauly facing off.  I don’t think Supervisor Janet Nguyen will object to being known as the boring candidate in her race, as her sole challenger is convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco.  (For the record, I am not related to Supervisor Nguyen. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Wait, there’s more!  The Fullerton Recall!

  • Battle for Fullerton: The Field is Set
    Thirteen candidates have filed for the three seats up for recall. Rick Alvarez (R), Janes Rands (G), Greg Sebourn (R), and Paula Williams (D) have filed to replace Don Bankhead.  Dorothy A. Birsic (R), Glenn P. Georgieff (D), Matthew Hakim (D), Travis Kiger (R), and Roberta Reid (NPP) have filed to replace Dick Jones.  Doug Chaffee (D), Barry Levinson (R), Sean Paden (R), and Matthew Rowe (NPP) have filed to replace Pat McKinley.

Still more…

We’re still not done with our candidate filing coverage, but at least, now, dear reader, you’re caught up.

I give South OC the award for most boring region in the 2012 Primary.  Things are much more interesting in the North OC and Central OC campaigns.  Fear not, South OC, I anticipate fun from you in the 2014 Primary to replace termed-out Supervisor Pat Bates unless Senator Mimi Walters decides to ruin it all by entering and clearing the field for herself, assuming Assemblywoman Diane Harkey continues on her path to the Board of Equalization.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Fullerton, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Los Alamitos, Orange County Board of Education, Rossmoor, Santa Ana, Seal Beach | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »