The latest Field Poll released on Thursday shows Proposition 28 (term limits) leading 50%-28%, with 22% undecided. The poll measured likely voters from May 21-29.
Here’s a comparison of polling on Proposition 28 (term limits) over time:
| Dates | Poll | Yes | No | Spread |
| 5/21-5/29 | Field | 50% | 28% | Yes +22% |
| 5/17-5/21 | USC/LAT | 49% | 33% | Yes +16% |
| 5/14-5/20 | PPIC | 62% | 29% | Yes +33% |
| 3/14-3/19 | USC/LAT | 51% | 32% | Yes +19% |
| 2/21-2/28 | PPIC | 68% | 24% | Yes +44% |
Compensating for variation in polls, note that the PPIC poll found Prop 28 declined from a 44% lead to a 33% lead while the USC/LA Times poll found Prop 28 declined from 19% to 16%.
The PPIC poll found that Prop 28 leads in every subgroup they had: Republicans (63%-28%), Democrats (60%-31%), Independents [no party preference] (66%-22%), conservatives (64%-26%), moderates (66%-26%), liberals (55%-36%), college graduates (56%-35%), people with some college education (66%-25%), and people with a high school education or less (65%-24%).
The USC/LA Times poll also found that Prop 28 leads in almost every subgroup they had: Republicans (46%-36%), Democrats (51%-30%), decline-to-state [no party preference/independents] 52%-35%), third party (35%-32%), whites (50%-32%), Latinos (53%-31%), minorities overall (50%-31%), people with children (47%-39%), people without children (50%-30%), people aged 30-39 (43%-31%), people aged 40-49 (57%-29%), people aged 50-64 (53%-31%), and people over 64 (52%-29%).
The USC/LA Times poll found that black voters actually oppose Prop 28 by a 45%-34% margin, and people aged 18-29 oppose Prop 28 by a 42%-37% margin.
The Field Poll also found that Prop 28 leads in every subgroup they had: Republicans (50%-32%), Democrats (50%-25%), no party preference [independent]/other (51%-30%), conservatives (45%-32%), moderates (59%-22%), liberals (46%-33%), LA County (46%-29%), Southern California outside LA County (49%-31%), San Francisco Bay Area (52%-30%), Northern California outside the Bay Area (55%-23%), men (53%-32%), women (48%-25%), people aged 18-39 (50%-23%), people aged 40-64 (50%-29%), people 65 and older (50%-31%), precinct [poll] voters (48%-28%), and mail ballot [absentee] voters (52%-29%).
OC Political 