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Posts Tagged ‘Lupe Moreno’

Five New Votes in First Supervisorial District

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 11, 2015

On the first day of the recount in the First Supervisorial District Special Election, 6,250 ballots in 16 precincts were recounted with no change, so former Senator Lou Correa suspended the recount to focus on provisional ballots.

Despite the suspension, another 2,912 ballots in 5 precincts were recounted on the second day.  However, unlike the first day, there was a 5-vote change, and the 2,912 ballots grew to 2,917.  Presumably, those five votes are previously-disqualified provisionals that have now been counted.  It appears that when each newly-included provisional was added, the entire precinct was then recounted.

Specifically, the 5 precincts each had 1 additional vote (Garden Grove’s 14601 and 14611, Westminster’s 39620, and Santa Ana’s 68618 and 68620).

Unfortunately for Correa, the 5-vote change had no net effect on Supervisor Andrew Do‘s 43-vote lead.  While Correa gained 2 votes (both from Santa Ana), Do also gained 2 votes (one each from Garden Grove and Westminster).  Garden Grove Councilman Chris Phan gained the other vote.

Also, on a complete tangent: congratulations are in order for write-in candidate Mark I. Lopez, as his vote for himself in Precinct 68615 was not tossed.  (In case anyone was wondering, the other write-in vote for Lopez was in Precinct 68634, but that Santa Ana precinct has not been recounted.)  I am left with the question of why the other four people registered to vote in Lopez’s house didn’t vote for him.  Perhaps they were concerned about Lopez’s desire for more politicians who talk like George Wallace did.

Here’s the precinct-by-precinct breakdown (vote changes in red):

 

Precinct City Status Ballots Recounted Candidate Name Original Tally Hand Tally
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 ANDREW DO 241 241
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 CHRIS PHAN 99 100
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 17 17
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 LOU CORREA 293 293
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 10 10
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 ANDREW DO 215 216
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 CHRIS PHAN 105 105
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 28 28
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 LOU CORREA 170 170
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 5 5
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
39620 Westminster Counted 553 ANDREW DO 272 273
39620 Westminster Counted 553 CHRIS PHAN 90 90
39620 Westminster Counted 553 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 31 31
39620 Westminster Counted 553 LOU CORREA 151 151
39620 Westminster Counted 553 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 6 6
39620 Westminster Counted 553 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68601 Santa Ana Counted 649 ANDREW DO 141 141
68601 Santa Ana Counted 649 CHRIS PHAN 126 126
68601 Santa Ana Counted 649 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 30 30
68601 Santa Ana Counted 649 LOU CORREA 345 345
68601 Santa Ana Counted 649 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 ANDREW DO 208 208
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 CHRIS PHAN 97 97
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 28 28
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 LOU CORREA 146 146
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 10 10
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68603 Santa Ana Counted 298 CHRIS PHAN 44 44
68603 Santa Ana Counted 298 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 5 5
68603 Santa Ana Counted 298 LOU CORREA 170 170
68603 Santa Ana Counted 298 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 ANDREW DO 21 21
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 CHRIS PHAN 11 11
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 2 2
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 LOU CORREA 176 176
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 15 15
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 ANDREW DO 100 100
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 CHRIS PHAN 40 40
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 14 14
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 LOU CORREA 189 189
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 8 8
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 ANDREW DO 309 309
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 CHRIS PHAN 137 137
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 64 64
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 LOU CORREA 189 189
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 2 2
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 ANDREW DO 41 41
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 CHRIS PHAN 35 35
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 2 2
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 LOU CORREA 285 285
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 8 8
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 ANDREW DO 102 102
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 CHRIS PHAN 36 36
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 5 5
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 LOU CORREA 96 96
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 11 11
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68609 Santa Ana Counted 417 ANDREW DO 143 143
68609 Santa Ana Counted 417 CHRIS PHAN 38 38
68609 Santa Ana Counted 417 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 12 12
68609 Santa Ana Counted 417 LOU CORREA 200 200
68609 Santa Ana Counted 417 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 21 21
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 ANDREW DO 86 86
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 CHRIS PHAN 38 38
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 4 4
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 LOU CORREA 197 197
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 4 4
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 ANDREW DO 139 139
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 CHRIS PHAN 46 46
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 13 13
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 LOU CORREA 151 151
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 7 7
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 ANDREW DO 73 73
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 CHRIS PHAN 19 19
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 8 8
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 LOU CORREA 225 225
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 6 6
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 ANDREW DO 61 61
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 CHRIS PHAN 42 42
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 7 7
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 LOU CORREA 352 352
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 16 16
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 ANDREW DO 106 106
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 CHRIS PHAN 65 65
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 15 15
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 LOU CORREA 151 151
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 2 2
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 ANDREW DO 74 74
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 CHRIS PHAN 55 55
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 14 14
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 LOU CORREA 299 299
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 12 12
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 1 1
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 ANDREW DO 58 58
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 CHRIS PHAN 53 53
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 8 8
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 LOU CORREA 159 159
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 6 6
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 ANDREW DO 361 361
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 CHRIS PHAN 23 23
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 6 6
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 LOU CORREA 292 293
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 14 14
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 ANDREW DO 49 49
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 CHRIS PHAN 26 26
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 8 8
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 LOU CORREA 387 388
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 29 29
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0

 

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Correa Suspends Recount After 6,250 Ballots in 16 Precincts Produces No Changes, Switches to Provisional Strategy, Eyes Turn to SD-37

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 10, 2015

Supervisor's Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

One of the last times we’ll use this graphic of Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster), former Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilman Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

After recounting 6,250 ballots in 16 precincts (12.85% of all ballots cast and 15.84% of all precincts) in the First Supervisorial District, no ballots changed.

Correa has opted to suspend the recount to instead focus on provisional ballots, a strategy suggested in a colorful post by Orange Juice Blogger Greg Diamond.

Diamond cited the effort to overturn the North Orange County Community College District’s Measure J in which the measure’s opponents initiated the recount but focused on gathering information about the provisional ballots in order to challenge the provisionals in court.  Their court date is Wednesday, February 18.

However, Measure J opponents have a much shorter road to victory than Correa does.

Simple math explains this: Measure J opponents need to toss 34 out of 154,118 (0.02206%) votes cast.  Correa needs to toss 43 out of 48,626 (0.08843%) votes cast.

Measure J opponents also have the advantage of a multicounty district: they can challenge ballots in the LA County portion of the North Orange County Community College District (that district really needs a name change for the sake of geographic accuracy).  Correa can only challenge ballots in Orange County.

The history books are about to be written on the First Supervisorial District Special Election.

County Supervisor First District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 101 of 101
Vote Count Percentage
ANDREW DO 18,905 39.1%
LOU CORREA 18,862 39.0%
CHRIS PHAN 7,857 16.3%
CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 1,879 3.9%
LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 834 1.7%
MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 2 0.0%

Yesterday, Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley sent out this unintentionally symbolic tweet, as political eyes turn away from the First Supervisorial District Special Election and toward the 37th Senate District Special Election:

It’s only 35 days until the SD-37 Special Election, and the first mailer should arrive in my mailbox any day now.

Wagner, Moorlach, and Namazi

Time to start focusing on this trio of Republicans: Business Owner/Assemblyman Donald P. Wagner, former Orange County Supervisor John M. W. Moorlach, and Naz Namazi

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments »

Correa Recount Highly Unlikely to Succeed, Based on Recent Cases, Do to Be Sworn in This Morning

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 3, 2015

Supervisor's Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

Supervisor’s Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

Last night, former Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana) submitted an official request for a recount to the Orange County Registrar of Voters.  Judging by recent recount efforts, it is highly unlikely that Correa will be able to overturn Supervisor-Elect Andrew Do’s 43-vote lead.

  • In the 2014 general election for the North Orange County Community College District’s Measure J, measure opponents needed to flip 34 votes to block the 55% supermajority to overturn the measure.  Realizing a recount would be unlikely to prevail, the opponents went with the unique method of using the recount as an opportunity to examine the provisional ballots, then ended the recount to instead file suit in court to get the provisionals tossed.  This case is still pending.  However, since provisionals overwhelmingly favored Correa, it is unlikely he would use this method (nor would adding the uncounted provisionals help since there were just a handful of those, so it was far short of 43).
  • In the 2014 general election for Mayor of Garden Grove, then-Mayor Bruce Broadwater (D-Garden Grove) sought a recount to overturn his 15-vote re-election loss to then-School Board Member Bao Nguyen (D-Garden Grove).  Broadwater threw in the towel when the first day of the recount failed to change a single ballot despite 2,500 ballots being recounted, and Nguyen became Mayor.
  • In the 2014 primary election for State Controller, then-Assembly Speaker John Perez (D-Los Angeles) sought a recount to overturn his 481-vote loss to then-Board of Equalization Member Betty Yee (D-San Francisco). Perez gave up after one week when he only managed to change 8 votes in approximately 400 precincts.  Yee advanced to the general election against Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin and won that race to become State Controller.
  • In the 2007 special election for the First Supervisorial District (i.e. the election for this same seat eight years ago when none other than Lou Correa resigned the seat to become a State Senator), then-School Board Member Trung Nguyen (R-Garden Grove) led then-Councilwoman Janet Nguyen (R-Garden Grove) by 7 votes.  Janet Nguyen then sought a recount and netted 14 votes, thereby changing her 7-vote deficit into a 7-vote lead.  Trung Nguyen then went to court and widdled Janet Nguyen’s lead down to 3 votes.  Janet Nguyen, of course, went on to serve eight years in the seat before resigning in 2014 to become a State Senator, triggering the 2015 special election.  One important caveat in this story, state laws regarding recounts were much more generous in allowing ballots to be tossed back then, and even that was only a 14-vote (or 11-vote if you consider the judge’s rulings) switch.

Do’s 43-vote victory is simply too large a margin for Correa to overcome.  I don’t blame Correa for trying, because 43 votes out of 48,626 cast in 101 precincts is tantalizingly close, but he just won’t be able to pull it off.

Do will be sworn in as Supervisor this morning.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, California, Garden Grove, North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

It’s Certified: Do Defeats Correa by 43 Votes

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 30, 2015

Just minutes ago, Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley certified the First Supervisorial District Special Election.

ANDREW DO 18,905 39.1%
LOU CORREA 18,862 39.0%
CHRIS PHAN 7,857 16.3%
CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 1,879 3.9%
LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 834 1.7%

The Registrar’s press release is below:

First District Special Election Certified
Final ballot counting and official certification complete

SANTA ANA, CA – January 30, 2015 – Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley has just certified the official results of the Orange County Board of Supervisors’ First District Special Election held on January 27, 2015.

Total turnout from the election was 22.6% with 19% of voters casting their ballot by mail and 3.5% of voters voting in their polling place. In the 2007 First District Special Election overall turnout was 22.4%, vote-by-mail voting was 17.3% and polling place voting was 5.1%.

The Orange County Registrar of Voters produces detailed reports focusing on overall turnout, turnout by precinct, turnout by districts, turnout by cities, and more. These detailed reports can be found by visiting ocvote.com in the “Results” section.

# # #

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Final Day of Counting: Math Says Do Defeats Correa in Every Likely Scenario

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 30, 2015

Supervisor's Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

Supervisor’s Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

As the final day of counting in the First Supervisorial District Special Election commences, Lou Correa is simply running out of ballots to overtake Andrew Do’s lead.  While provisional ballots helped Correa narrow his deficit from 239 to 85 yesterday, that 154-vote swing is not enough for Correa to defeat Do.

765 ballots remain.  Of those, 294 are provisionals, 396 are SB 29 ballots, 70 are traditional late absentees, and 5 are paper ballot votes cast at the polls.  To make things worse for Correa, multiple observers who were at the Registrar of Voters yesterday reported that the SB 29 ballots appeared to be 2/3 to 4/5 Vietnamese language ballots.  (I imagine Correa regrets authoring SB 29.)

Late absentees were trending at a 5% lead for Do.  The 70 traditional late absentees would then give Do an increased lead of 3-4 votes.  Let’s say the five remaining paper ballots split evenly between Correa and Do, with one going to Phan.  That leaves the 294 provisionals and the 396 SB 29 ballots.

Correa gained 622 votes in yesterday’s count, Do gained 468, Chris Phan 193, Chuyen Van Nguyen 44, and Lupe Morfin-Moreno 18.  Correa gained 46.25% of the 1345 ballots counted yesterday while Do gained 34.80%. However, of that amount there were 970 provisionals and 375 absentees.  In other words, 72% of yesterday’s count came from provisionals while only 38% of today’s count will come from provisionals.  If yesterday’s trend were to continue today (which is not possible due to the much lower proportion of provisionals, but let’s give Correa the benefit of the doubt), Correa would gain 319 votes from the remaining provisional and SB 29 ballots while Do would gain 240 votes.  That would net Correa an additional 79 votes.  Add in the 70 traditional late absentees and Correa’s net gain is 75-76, which is still 9-10 votes short of overtaking Do.  Correa still loses in his best case scenario.

A more likely scenario comes from applying yesterday’s trend to provisionals and prior days’ trends to SB 29 ballots.  Correa gains 135 provisionals and 143 SB 29 ballots.  Do gains 102 provisionals and 162 SB 29 ballots.  That’s a Correa gain of 278 and a Do gain of 264, or Correa shrinking Do’s lead by another 14 votes.  Throwing in the traditional absentees reduces it to a lead reduction of 10-11 for Do, which would still have Do winning by 74-75 votes.

However, with the reports of the SB 29 ballots being overwhelmingly Vietnamese language ballots and the fact that more SB 29 ballots can still come in today, Do likely wins this election by well over 100 votes.  That’s not a landslide, but it’s certainly well beyond the margin for a recount in this low-turnout election, where less than 49,000 ballots were cast.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

To Win 1st District, Correa Needs to Beat Do by 22% in Provisionals – If All Provisionals Are Valid

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 29, 2015

In the First Supervisorial District Special Election, Lou Correa won early absentee voters, but Andrew Do won late absentee voters and poll voters.  Correa won 13,629 early absentee votes while Do won 13,480, a difference of 149 votes.  The infamous habit of Vietnamese voters casting ballots late reared its head again, as Do won 2,069 late absentee ballots to Correa’s 1,821, a difference of 248 votes.  Do won at the polls too, with 2,681 votes to Correa’s 2,541, a difference of 140 votes.

Judging by these trends, the earlier election date assisted Correa while a later election date would have assisted Do. The earlier date favored Correa because it took more time for Do’s campaign to build up his name ID and persuade voters to vote for him while Correa simply had to remind the earlier voters of their many years of voting for him.  A later date would have helped Do by giving his campaign more time to build his name ID and persuade voters.

There are 637 outstanding absentee ballots and 1264 outstanding provisional ballots.  If the remaining absentee ballots come in at the same rate as the other late absentee ballots, Do will have 18,491 votes while Correa will have 18,220, a lead for Do of 271 votes.

If through some miracle 100% of the provisional ballots are valid, Correa would need to beat Do by 22% in the provisionals (technically, 21.518%).  However, if 88% of the provisional ballots are valid, Correa would need to beat Do by 24.37% in provisional balloting.

The mysterious factor are the SB 29 ballots.  No one knows how many of these are still out there, as there are two more days of mail where these ballots can come in.  Obviously, if they trend similarly to late absentees, then Do’s lead widens and Correa needs even more of the provisional ballots.  Obviously, if they trend closer to early absentees, then Do’s lead narrows and Correa needs fewer of the provisional ballots.  We’ll find out by Friday how the SB 29 ballots went and if Correa was a genius for writing SB 29 or if Correa wrote a bill that helped lead to his own demise.

1stSupeEarlyVBM 1stSupeLateVBM 1stSupePoll

In a city-by-city breakdown, there were no surprises for the two front-runners, with Correa dominating Santa Ana (54%) and Do winning the rest of the First Supervisorial District.  Do was strongest in his current home of Westminster (49%) while his former home of Garden Grove was his weakest lead (41%) though that’s likely the spoiler effect of Garden Grove Councilman Chris Phan.  Oddly, Garden Grove was not Chris Phan’s best community; he won 20% of the vote there, but he won 21% in the unincorporated community of Midway City.

Phan and Do won a combined 61% of the vote in Garden Grove, 65% in Fountain Valley, 66% in Westminster, 68% in Midway City, and 40% in Santa Ana.  Adding Nguyen in increases that to 66% in Garden Grove, 68% in Fountain Valley, 70% in Westminster, 72% in Midway City, and 43% in Santa Ana.

1stSupeBarGraph

 

1stSupeGG

1stSupeFV 1stSupeWM1stSupeMidway 1stSupeSA

Lost in most discussions is the Lupe Moreno factor.  She does not have 100% name ID, and she didn’t really campaign in this election.  She was also the only woman in the race.  If even 30% of the votes cast for her were cast by Latino and Latina voters who would have otherwise voted for Correa, she may well have played a critical spoiler role to stop Correa and allow Do to win.

 

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Live from the 1st Supervisorial District Candidate Forum

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 6, 2015

Supervisor's Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

Supervisor’s Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

We are live from the Rancho Santiago Community College District Board Room for the First Supervisorial District Candidate Forum, organized by the Santa Ana-based Connect-to-Council and sponsored by the Santa Ana Chamber of Commerce, Garden Grove Chamber of Commerce, and Westminster Chamber of Commerce.

Supervisor’s Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana) have been invited to participate in this first candidate forum.  (Mini-biographies of each candidate can be found in this prior OC Political post.)

image

It’s standing room only tonight.

7:05 PM: Connect 2 Council Chair Connie Hamilton intros the forum.

7:07 PM: Hamilton says the candidates are not allowed to use cell phones. There will be 4 questions from the panel before audience questions are asked. There will be no rebuttals, no booing, and no clapping. Campaign signs and literature are forbidden.

7:09 PM: Lou Correa thanks the voters for his Senate election. He thanks veterans for serving. He speaks of growing up in Orange County during the Apollo project and the race to the moon. He speaks of his mother working cleaning hotel rooms. He says while things change, many things stay the same. He speaks of many parents today working multiple jobs to make ends meet. He says the County’s top job is public safety; his wife was attacked by an assailant two years ago but she managed to escape after being beaten.

7:12 PM: Lupe Morfin-Moreno notes she grew up in the same era as Correa. She says she worked in the fields as a child. She finished school and has worked for the County for 32 years. She says she knows her community’s needs and public safety. She expresses concern about the safety of the Civic Center with its homeless population. She has volunteered on many committees, including currently on the Friends of the Santa Ana Library. She helped create Santa Ana’s 4th of July celebration. She calls herself a servant of God and the community.

7:16 PM: Chuyen Van Nguyen speaks of growing up in a Vietnamese village and serving in the South Vietnamese military. He moved from Texas to Westminster in 1978. He has owned homes and businesses in OC. His children went to public school. His son and daughter in law are deputy attorneys general and another daughter in law is a Garden Grove Unified School District teacher. He speaks of serving as a Senior Assistant to State Senator Joe Dunn. He says he wants to give back to the community that has given him and his family so much. He wants to improve learning opportunities, fiscal responsibility, and public safety. He hopes County politics is safer than anti-aircraft missiles.

7:19 PM: Chris Phan speaks of growing up in Vietnam and then Indiana. He joined the United States Navy after graduating from law school. His first job as a Navy JAG was across the river from the World Trade Center on September 11. He witnessed the terrorist attack in person and helped the relief effort. He was eventually assigned as Counsel to Navy SEALs. He speaks of walking the entire City of Garden Grove when he was elected to the City Council. He speaks of wanting to expand opportunity and improve public safety.

7:22 PM: Write-in candidate Mark Lopez speaks about the American Dream being the American Responsibility. He says he served in Iraq and Afghanistan. He says the community is too segregated by race and that all are Americans. He expresses concern that few people know what a County Supervisor is. He speaks of people’s cynicism about politics.

Andrew Do is not present.

7:25 PM: The first question goes to Chris Phan: The County has not been successful in addressing its ten year homelessness plan after Fullerton and Santa Ana sites for shelters were rejected by local communities.

7:26 PM: Phan suggests working together with community stakeholders to work on this in smaller chunks. He says there need to be more efforts to address the root of homelessness. He says homelessness is widespread and is not just a First District problem.

7:28 PM: Morfin-Moreno says she volunteers at the library in the middle of the Civic Center. She says the problem is growing. She blames the growth of government, pointing to $60 million in federal funding hinged on OC’s local homeless count. She wants to help connect the homeless with eligible programs: homeless veterans with veteran programs, mentally ill homeless with mental health programs, tackling homeless drug users with anti-drug programs.

7:31 PM: Nguyen says homelessness is a national problem. He says the County cannot solve it alone. He calls on city, county, and state governments to work together to solve the problem.

7:32 PM: Lopez says he will donate half his Supervisorial salary to the homeless. He says “tough love” is the answer. He does not explain what he means.

7:34 PM: Correa celebrated his 50th birthday by taking his children to feed the homeless to remind his family of how blessed they are. He supports a homeless shelter provided that the local community supports the location. He points to the Illumination Foundation’s recently-opened homeless shelter near the Civic Center. He says the neighbors can’t even tell the shelter is there.

7:36 PM: The second question goes to Correa. The question asks about a strategy to encourage business growth in Orange County using local preference programs.

7:37 PM: Correa supports local preference programs in County contracting, like the State and federal governments have. He points to IT contracts going to out of County companies. He supports holding more workshops for OC businesses to explain and encourage their bids on County contracts.

7:39 PM: Morfin-Moreno says the way to help business is to cut regulations and taxes. She wants the community businesses to not be reliant on government. She believes the Supervisors must have a reason for “not having special favors” with local preferences.

7:40 PM: Nguyen calls for collaboration between government and local chambers of commerce to help find solutions for local business.

7:41 PM: Phan notes OC’s climate encourages business but California’s regulatory and taxation burdens discourage business. He suggests incentives, tax credits, and loans for businesses wanting to stay in Orange County or coming into Orange County. He points to the “Buy in Garden Grove” program in his City. He says bringing in large national companies locally brings local jobs.

7:43 PM: Lopez speaks about the City of Santa Ana stopping his effort to open a hot dog stand. He says corporations and unions should not be allowed to endorse in Supervisors’ races (apparently, Lopez has never heard of the First Amendment).

7:46 PM: The third question goes to Morfin-Moreno. Orange County is a donor County with low funding from the State. How would she fix the property tax equity problem for Orange County? Would they work with the state to fix the funding allocation problem?

7:47 PM: Morfin-Moreno says she would oppose any tax increases.

7:48 PM: Lopez says he would oppose tax increases and says people pay too much.

(Neither Morfin-Moreno nor Lopez understand the question.)

7:49 PM: Correa properly says the question is not about raising taxes but about allocation of existing property taxes. He says the allocation formula is stuck in 1978 when OC was rich and young. He says OC gets 11 cents per dollar whole San Francisco gets 60 cents per dollar. He says he has fought this in Sacramento. He says OC needs to get up to the average. He notes in 2009 he secured $50 million in additional allocation for OC on an ongoing basis but says there needs to be a greater allocation to reach equity.

7:52 PM: Nguyen says OC should get its fair share of tax dollars from Sacramento. He says he will surround himself with experts both paid and unpaid to study the issue and fight in Sacramento.

7:53 PM: Phan calls for a comprehensive study of the funding equity issue to arm OC’s legislative delegation with proof that OC should have a greater allocation to achieve funding equity.

7:54 PM: The fourth question goes to Nguyen and is about providing better service with CalOptima and Obamacare.

7:55 PM: Nguyen says there needs to be checks and balances with additional appointees to ensure all aspects of CalOptima are examined. He says quality of care must be balanced with fiscal responsibility.

7:57 PM: Phan says the appointment of a second Supervisor to CalOptima is a good first step. He does not want to create more bureaucracy and wants a comprehensive study on how to improve CalOptima. He wants to encourage more preventative care. He calls for more oversight, eliminating duplicate services, and preventative care.

7:58 PM: Lopez says he falls under VA. He proposes opening a County hospital or two instead of CalOptima. He says he will donate one year’s salary to build a County hospital.

8:00 PM: Correa says he worked closely with CalOptima as a State Senator to help fix the problems at CalOptima. He acknowledges Supervisor Todd Spitzer in the audience for his work fixing CalOptima. Correa calls for greater access to health care. He wants to grow and strengthen CalOptima with vigilance and oversight. He wants the best, cost-effective, and timely services through CalOptima.

8:03 PM: Morfin-Moreno says CalOptima started as an experiment and it has not been replicated anywhere else in the state. She describes her work on CalOptima, children’s services, and MediCal, along with the bureaucratic burdens with these programs. She wants to study other counties to determine the best model.

8:05 PM: The first audience question asks how the First District Supervisor can help combat the climate of California being unfriendly to business.

8:06 PM: Morfin-Moreno blasts the influence of unions and corporations on career politicians. She wants to lower taxes and fight federal unfunded mandates. She says citizens are shortchanged. She says career politicians are not helping the people.

8:08 PM: Nguyen says California’s economy is doing well. He calls for county income tax incentives. He wants to encourage large corporations to come to Orange County and stay in Orange County.

8:09 PM: Phan calls for reducing bureaucracy. He wants to lead by example. He wants to make it easier for businesses to start and grow by reducing burdens upon local business.

8:11 PM: Lopez laments the lack of manufacturing in the United States. He wants to reject outside businesses in favor of local businesses in Orange County.

8:13 PM: Correa says he likes to listen. He walked for three years to learn from people before being elected. He wants to listen to local businesses, business groups,and taxpayer groups. He speaks of when he was locked out of his office by the Senate leadershop for not being liberal. He speaks of biotechnology and venture capital in California. He wants to turn to the strengths of California not its weaknesses. He speaks of voting for tax incentives to keep the B3 bomber in California.

8:16 PM: The second audience question asks each candidate’s top three priorities.

8:16 PM: Lopez says his top priorities are education, transportation, and housing. He calls for better bus routes and more affordable housing for all. He says tough decisions need to be made. He supports more straight talk from elected officials like the way George Wallace talked. (! He really said that!)

8:18 PM: Correa says public safety is the top priority. He wants cost effective monitoring of criminals after realignment and Prop 47. He want to hire more probation officers. He wants to increase crime prevention programs. He says growing the economy is his second priority and education is third.

8:20 PM: Morfin-Moreno says public safety is her top priority. She was beaten five years ago in Santa Ana. She worries about her family’s safety. She worries about the community’s safety. Her second priority is fighting eminent domain. Her third priority is encouraging businesses in the Civic Center and wants other Supervisors to take the First District more seriously.

8:22 PM: Nguyen says public safety is his top priority. He wants more funding for juvenile justice programs. He wants to “beef up the Probation Department” to “keep a tighter lid” on crime due to AB 109 realignment. His second priority is education and wants to expand preschool. His third priority is transportation, as he wants to create circular bus routes rather than north-south routes.

8:24 PM: Phan says public safety, the economy, and fiscal responsibility are his top priorities. He wants to ensure the Sheriff’s Department is well equipped and wants to work on more crime prevention programs for youth. He notes his experience as a prosecutor. He wants to reduce regulatory burdens on businesses to encourage economic growth. He wants to streamline government to ensure fiscally responsible spending.

8:27 PM: Lopez gives a completely incoherent closing statement.

8:28 PM: Phan thanks the forum sponsors and attendees. He speaks of his core values from the Navy of honor, courage, and commitment.

8:29 PM: Nguyen thanks the forum sponsors and attendees. He says he will listen to all organizations and churches to improve education and safety.

8:30 PM: Morfin-Moreno calls for openness. If elected, she will reach out to the community. She says she is frugal and opposes tax increases. She wants to serve the community.

8:31 PM: Correa thanks his opponents and supports a marketplace of ideas and encourages everyone to vote. He speaks of growing up in OC and wanting to continue in public service.

FORUM ENDS.

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No Ballot Lawsuits Filed in First District Supervisor’s Special Election

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 29, 2014

Supervisor's Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

Supervisor’s Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

The First Supervisorial District special election continues down its road of positiveness.  My parents have expressed surprise that they have not seen any negative ads while watching local Vietnamese-language television, with only positive ads coming from the campaigns for Andrew Do, Lou Correa, and Chris Phan.  They’ve not seen any ads for Chuyen Van Nguyen or Lupe Morfin-Moreno.  (I suspect the campaigns have been just trying to get past Christmas. I would not be surprised to see negative ads this week or over the weekend.)

In a similarly positive vein, no litigation was filed in the First Supervisorial District Special Election by close of business Friday, which was the deadline for any court challenges to ballot designations and ballot statements.

The candidates will appear exactly as follows (and in the following order):

  • Andrew Do, Supervisor’s Chief/Businessowner
  • Lou Correa, California State Senator
  • Chris Phan, Councilmember/Deputy DA
  • Chuyen Van Nguyen, Television News Anchor
  • Lupe Morfin-Moreno, Office Specialist

Do, Correa, and Phan got ballot statements (copies of those are available at the bottom of the post linked here).  Nguyen and Morfin-Moreno did not get ballot statements.

(Time once again for my usual Nguyen disclaimer: I am not related to Chuyen Van Nguyen.  The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

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1st District Special Election: Do Wins Ballot Order Lottery, Candidate Statements, & Who is Chuyen Van Nguyen?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 18, 2014

Supervisor's Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

Supervisor’s Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

The Secretary of State conducted the ballot order lottery on Tuesday and transmitted the results to the Registrar of Voters, and Andrew Do was the big winner, so here’s how each candidate will appear on the January 27, 2015, ballot (assuming their designations aren’t challenged in court by December 26):

  • Andrew Do, Supervisor’s Chief/Businessowner
  • Lou Correa, California State Senator
  • Chris Phan, Councilmember/Deputy DA
  • Chuyen Van Nguyen, Television News Anchor
  • Lupe Morfin-Moreno, Office Specialist

Most OC Political readers are familiar with Do, Correa, Phan, and even Morfin-Moreno, but most have expressed little knowledge of Nguyen.  To fill everyone in, let’s take a closer look at each candidate:

  • Andrew Do (R-Westminster), 51 years old

    Do is a partner in a law firm who was a deputy district attorney for eight years and who served as Chief of Staff to former Supervisor Janet Nguyen, who vacated this Supervisor’s seat to become a California State Senator. As an attorney, he has served as President of the Asian Bar Association of California and the Vietnamese-American Bar Association of Southern California.  He is a former adjunct professor at Cal State Fullerton and judge pro tem in the old Orange County Municipal Court.  Fleeing Vietnam as a child, Do grew up in the First Supervisorial District, attending Junior High and High School in Garden Grove.  He is a graduate of Santa Ana College, UC Davis, and UC Hastings.

    Do was elected to the Garden Grove City Council in 2008 and served for three years. (He now lives in Westminster.)

    Do’s candidacy for Supervisor is endorsed by the Republican Party of Orange County, former Supervisors/current Senators Janet Nguyen and Pat Bates, Supervisor-Elect Michelle Steel, Congressmen Ed Royce and Dana Rohrabacher, Congresswoman-Elect Mimi Walters, and Assembly Members Young Kim, Travis Allen, Matt Harper, and Don Wagner.

  • Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), 56 years old (though he will turn 57 on January 24)

    Spending the majority of his career in elective office, Correa was an investment banker and real estate broker before entering the State Assembly.  He is a licensed attorney, though opted to go the banking and real estate route before entering politics.  A native Californian, Correa grew up in the Fourth Supervisorial District, attending K-12 in Anaheim.  He is a graduate of Cal State Fullerton and UCLA.

    After narrowly losing a 1996 Assembly bid by 93 votes, Correa became a State Assemblyman in 1998, termed out in 2004, and then held this same Supervisor’s seat from 2005-2006.  He resigned from the Board of Supervisors in 2006 to enter the State Senate, where he stayed until terming out last month.  His resignation from the Board caused a February 2007 special election, only the second special election for Supervisor in Orange County history.  Janet Nguyen won that special election to fill his old Supervisorial seat and now holds his old Senate seat.

    Correa’s candidacy for Supervisor is endorsed by the Democratic Party of Orange County, Sheriff-Coroner Sandra Hutchens, District Attorney-Public Administrator Tony Rackauckas, the Orange County Labor Federation (i.e. association of unions), the Orange County Employees Association (i.e. general public employee union), the Orange County Professional Firefighters Association (i.e. the fire union), and the Orange County Business Council.

  • Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), 40 years old (though he will turn 41 on January 14)

    Phan has been a deputy district attorney for two years.  He served on active duty in the United States Navy as a Judge Advocate General (anyone remember the TV show JAG?) from 2001-2008.  He was a JAG defense attorney from 2001-2003, JAG prosecutor from 2003-2005, and served generally as a JAG attorney from 2005-2008.  He is currently a lieutenant commander in the Navy reserve.  Fleeing Vietnam as a child, Phan grew up in Indiana and has lived in Orange County for six years.  He is a graduate of Indiana University and Southern Illinois University.

    Phan was elected to the Garden Grove City Council two years ago.  Ironically, Phan holds the exact same seat that Do held for three years.

  • Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), 65 years old

    Nguyen is currently an anchor on VNA-TV (Vietnam America Television), Channel 57.3.  He has previously been an aircraft parts manufacturing supervisor, marketing consultant, newspaper publisher (Tieng-Chuong), and staffer for former State Senator Joe Dunn (D-Santa Ana).  He was a pilot in the South Vietnamese Air Force from 1970-1975 and was a Lieutenant when Saigon fell.  Politically, he was active in various Vietnamese organizations in the early 1990s.  After fleeing Vietnam, Nguyen settled in Texas before eventually moving to Westminster.

    In 1998, Nguyen ran for Mayor of Westminster and came in fourth out of five candidates (Tony Lam won his third election to the City Council in that same election); Mayor Frank Fry was re-elected, beating Mayor Pro Tem Joy Neugebauer by 3.5%.  (He now lives in Garden Grove.)  Considering his poor finish in 1998 when he held greater name ID than he does now and considering he didn’t even have the $2500 to get a ballot statement, he is expected to only play spoiler in this election by splitting the Vietnamese vote.

  • Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana), 57 years old

    Morfin-Moreno is currently an office specialist with the Orange County Health Care Agency.  Politically, she is best known as an anti-illegal immigration activist and Minuteman.  A former Central Committee member, she lost her Central Committee bids in both 2010 and 2012 (Central Committee members who were elected in 2012 now serve four-year terms, rather than two-year terms due to change in the California Elections Code, so the next Central Committee election is in 2016).  A native Californian, Morfin-Moreno grew up in the First Supervisorial District, attending elementary, junior high, and high school in Santa Ana.

    Morfin-Moreno previously ran for Mayor of Santa Ana in 2012 (coming in fourth out of six candidates), this same Supervisor’s seat in the 2007 special election (coming in ninth out of ten candidates after dropping out of the race), the State Senate in 2006 (losing the primary to Lynn Daucher, who then loss the general election to Correa), the Santa Ana Unified School District in 2002 (missing a seat by 486 votes) and in 2000 (coming in seventh of nine candidates).

Do, Correa, and Phan got ballot statements while Nguyen and Morfin-Moreno did not.

Here’s Do’s statement (assuming it isn’t challenged in court by December 26):

At the urging of many Orange County leaders, I decided to run for County Supervisor. My experience includes:

Orange County Judge Pro Tem; Deputy District Attorney; City Councilman; Small Business Owner; Orange County Supervisor’s Chief of Staff.

As a Deputy District Attorney, I spent eight years fighting to make our community safe, prosecuting violent criminals and sex offenders.

As your Supervisor, I will fight hard for:

Local businesses and job creation, higher educational standards, health care programs, less waste in government, strong public safety, and anti-gang programs. I oppose tax increases.

Serving as Chief of Staff to California State Senator and Supervisor Janet Nguyen gives me valuable experience and an in-depth understanding of issues facing our area. Senator Nguyen urged
me to run for Supervisor.

I have deep family roots in central Orange County, having attended Jordan Jr. High, Bolsa Grande High School and Santa Ana College. I’m a graduate of the University of California, Hastings School of Law.

U.S Representatives Ed Royce and Mimi Walters, Senators Janet Nguyen and Pat Bates, Assembly members Young Kim and Matt Harper and Supervisor Michelle Steel have all endorsed me and I would be honored to receive your vote. Please visit www.AndrewDo2015.com. Thank you.

Here’s Correa’s statement (assuming it isn’t challenged in court by December 26):

It’s been an honor to work for you as your State Senator. Now, I respectfully ask for your support as your County Supervisor.

In the Legislature, my priorities have been jobs, public safety and public education. My work has earned me endorsements from respected leaders and organizations, including:

Sheriff Sandra Hutchens
District Attorney Tony Rackauckas
Orange County Professional Firefighters Association
Orange County Business Council

I helped cut taxes on small businesses and stopped unnecessary regulations. As a result of my work, I’ve been honored by the Orange County Taxpayers Association and named the California Small Business Association’s “Legislator of the Year.”

I’ve made our schools better and safer. I brought more education money and local control back to Orange County. I also co-wrote the new law to protect our children from heinous crimes. That’s why the California School Boards Association made me their “Legislator of the Year”.

It’s been an honor to represent you during these difficult economic times. Now, I’d like to bring my understanding of our communities to work for you as County Supervisor.

No one will work harder. I respectfully ask for your vote.

For more information please visit: www.loucorrea.com

Here’s Phan’s statement (assuming it isn’t challenged in court by December 26):

Embracing our diversity. Uniting our community. Serving our people!

As a former refugee, I am blessed to live the American Dream! I have served our country with honor and pride as a Navy officer for over 14 years. I am currently serving our community as an Orange County Deputy District Attorney and a Garden Grove City Councilmember. I humbly ask for your support to become your 1st
District Orange County Supervisor.

Military experience and public service taught me that our strength lies in our diversity. Orange County is truly a melting pot of culture, background, and ethnicity. As Supervisor, I will work hard to attract businesses to our District, increase employment, provide greater safety for our community, and protect our resources.

Over many months, I have walked and met many of our District’s residents. I have listened, learned, and shared many ideas with our residents so that I will be well-equipped and prepared to serve our County to the best of my ability.

Please learn about my candidacy at www.votechrisphan.com. I would be honored to have your vote and support. Together, we will ensure a brighter future for our County and forge a better tomorrow for our families. Thank you!

(Cue my usual Nguyen disclaimer: Senator Janet Nguyen and candidate Chuyen Van Nguyen are not related to each other, and neither of them are related to me.  The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

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Live from OC GOP Central Committee

Posted by Chris Nguyen on September 17, 2012

Okay, lots of procedural things out of the way…

7:20 PM: Oath administered.  I’m officially an alternate.

7:21 PM: Officeholders and candidates in the room introducing themselves: Baron Night, Dean Grose, Jose Moreno, Brett Franklin, Charles Hart, Dwight Robinson, Tony Beall, Mike Munzing, Kim McCarthy, Mike Mortenson, Debbie Cotton, Elizabeth Emken, Jim Dahl, Karina Onofre, Ellen Adonizzio, Jim Reardon, Carlos Olvera, Brian Chuchua, Roy Byrnes, Steven Vargas, Diane Harkey, Lucille Kring, Brett Barbre, Denis Bilodeau, Jon Dumitru, Deborah Pauly, Alexia Deligianni, Cathy Schlict, Mark McCurdy, Jeff Mathews, Lynn Schott, Bruce Whitaker, Wendy Bucknum, Ceci Iglesias, Barry Levinson, Susan Hinman, Sam Allevato, Erik Peterson, Robert Hammond, Jennifer Fitzgerald, Brad McGirr, Christina Shea, Don Wagner, Alexandria Coronado, Chuck Puckett, John Nielsen, Doug Davert, George Collins, Adam Nick, Steve Nagel, Michelle Ollada Alipio, Bill Brough, Lupe Moreno, and Chris Norby.

7:27 PM: Minutes approved.

7:28 PM: Chairman Scott Baugh discusses the importance of candidates stepping up at all times not just around the candidates’ own elections.

7:29 PM: At the request of Chairman Scott Baugh, Orange County Board of Education Trustee Robert Hammond discussed being at the County School Boards Association meeting where the attendees complained low voter turnout will allow “the Republicans from Orange County to defeat Prop 30 and Prop 38.”

7:30 PM: Baugh describes the 13 open OC GOP GOTV HQs and mentions 3 more are on the way.

7:31 PM: Baugh speaks of the Costa Mesa Charter Amendment being a priority of the Republican Party.

7:33 PM: Committee Alternate Bill Dunlap speaks of the importance of getting out the vote.  Only 26% of OC voters cast their ballots in June.  He describes a number of party-sponsored get-out-the-vote efforts.

7:36 PM: Baugh delivers the 1st Vice Chair’s report on behalf of John Warner: the report included information about the next countywide precinct walk as well as information about Congressman John Campbell agreeing to fund a GOTV headquarters in the City of Orange.

7:38 PM: Fullerton RWF President Beverly Gunter speaks of RWF’s efforts to fundraise, phone bank, and precinct walk for candidates.  She presents a $900 check from RWF to subsidize

7:39 PM: My boss from my day job, Chris Norby, speaks of his race for re-election.

Endorsements Committee Report

7:41 PM: Endorsements Committee Chair Mark Bucher begins his long-awaited report.  He speaks of Prop 32’s 55%-37% lead despite “Yes on Prop 32” not starting any advertising until today while “No on Prop 32” had been pounding away for a month.  He also speaks of the finances of the Prop 32 battle.

7:43 PM: Now he actually begins his long-awaited report on endorsements…

7:44 PM: Bucher thanks fellow Endorsements Committee Members Chandra Chell, Thomas Gordon, Ray Grangoff, Matt Harper, and Mary Young.  He describes the endorsement procedures and goes over the list.  (Here’s the list again.  Here and here are the live blogs of those meetings.)

7:48 PM: Parliamentarian Kermit Marsh says the Endorsements Committee may not recommend a dual endorsement while the Central Committee can make a dual endorsement (in reference to the contest between Brett Franklin and Charles Hart for Santa Ana City Council, Ward 3).

7:50 PM: Bucher continues his report briefly summarizing the more controversial contests.

7:52 PM: The list is moved with the following pulled from the list:

  • Sam Allevato for San Juan Capistrano City Council (original recommendation was postpone to October) pulled by Diane Harkey
  • Lynn Schott for Irvine City Council (original recommendation was for endorsement) pulled by Scott Baugh
  • Measure FF (original recommendation was for endorsement of Yes on FF) pulled by Deborah Pauly
  • Jennifer Fitzgerald for Fullerton City Council (original recommendation was for endorsement) pulled by Tim Whitacre
  • Brian Neil Chuchua for Anaheim City Council (original recommendation was no endorsement) pulled by Tim Whitacre
  • All Mission Viejo candidates (original recommendation was for endorsement of Frank Ury and Wendy Bucknum, but not Cathy Schlict nor Ed Saches) pulled by Scott Peotter

San Juan Capistrano City Council – Sam Allevato

8:02 PM: Debate begins.  State Assemblywoman Diane Harkey moves and Lucille Kring seconds to endorse Sam Allevato for San Juan Capistrano City Council.  Allan Bartlett and Deborah Pauly will speak against.

8:04 PM: Harkey speaks of being dragged through the mud in politics.  She states many lies have been spread about Allevato.  She says there are five high schools in San Juan Capistrano: one public and four private.  She speaks of heavy congestion from the proximity of the schools.  She gets booed when she attempts to speak over time.

8:07 PM: Baugh reiterates the time limits.

8:08 PM: Pauly speaks of the controversy about the tax on religious schools and the property tax increases.  She speaks of the importance of following the process in which the endorsements committee recommended delaying consideration of San Juan Capistrano City Council until October.

8:10 PM: In an unusual action, Harkey speaks again in favor of Allevato since no one else is planning to speak in support of him.  She speaks of the debt and septic issues in the City of San Juan Capistrano.

8:13 PM: Slight delay as speakers exchange places.

8:14 PM: Bartlett praises Harkey.  He speaks against Allevato due to Allevato sending a 2010 mailer supporting Larry Agran and opposing Jeff Lalloway.

8:16 PM: Jon Fleischman asks for the Endorsements Committee’s rationale behind recommending a delay until October.

8:16 PM: Bucher explains several candidates applied late and that many people had concerns about the candidates.

8:17 PM: Don Wagner asks about the Allevato Irvine mailer that was pro-Agran and anti-Lalloway.

8:17 PM: Allevato says he works for Forde & Mollrich but not on the campaign side.  A quote was included from him as a retired IPD Lieutenant supporting Larry Agran.

8:18 PM: Bartlett says, “For the record, Jeff Lalloway opposes the endorsement of Allevato.”  Harkey says, “For the record, Jeff’s my alternate!”  Baugh rules both out of order.

8:19 PM: In response to a question, Allevato defends the tax on the religious school as a student impact fee that the school agreed to pay.  He goes on to explain the intricacies of student impact fees in San Juan Capistrano.

8:23 PM: Harkey asks Allevato to explain various land use decisions.

8:24 PM: Allevato speaks of various issues related to sewage costs from a plant in San Juan Capistrano.

8:26 PM: Baugh states it looks like the committee is not supportive of the motion to endorse Allevato.

8:26 PM: Harkey says he wants to go for it, and his wishes should be respected.

8:27 PM: Allevato says he (and Ginny Kerr) answered his questionnaire on time and got his signatures.   Allevato says the other candidates failed to do so.

8:27 PM: Bartlett moves and John Draper seconds a substitute motion to delay to October (restoring the Endorsement Committee’s original recommendation).

8:28 PM: By voice vote, the committee refers the Allevato endorsement back to the Endorsements Committee.

Elizabeth Emken Speaks

8:29 PM: Bucher asks Baugh to let Elizabeth Emken speak, and Baugh agrees.

8:30 PM: Former CRP Chair Ron Nehring praises the OC GOP.  He praises the efforts of the OC GOP on behalf of Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Costa Mesa Mayor Pro Tem Jim Righeimer.  He speaks of watching the DNC.  He praises Mitt Romney and blasts Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.  He begins to introduce Elizabeth Emken by speaking of the importance of fighting for every seat from Mosquito Abatement District to U.S. Senate.

8:33 PM: Emken demands that Feinstein discuss her record.  Emken speaks of her own education and financial background.  She speaks of her efforts on behalf of her autistic son and other autistic children.  She speaks of her efforts to lobby Congress.  She says, “Obamacare is bad for everyone.”  She challenged Feinstein to debate and notes even the LA Times says Emken deserves the right to debate Feinstein.  She says the LA Daily News and the OC Register agree.  She says 123,000 people have seen the footage from ABC 7 in Los Angeles of Feinstein refusing to agree to debate.  Emken asks for money and plugs her web site.

Santa Ana City Council, Ward 3 – Brett Franklin and Charles Hart

8:41 PM: There was a quick discussion that although the Endorsements Committee did not have the power to recommend a dual endorsement in Santa Ana City Council, Ward 3, that the Central Committee does have that power and so both Brett Franklin and Charles Hart are endorsed.

8:42 PM: Baugh asks for a vote again just to make sure.  The Central Committee votes unanimously to endorse both Franklin and Hart.

Irvine City Council – Lynn Schott

8:43 PM: Baugh speaks of the 25-year inability of the Republican Party to remove Larry Agran from the Irvine City Council.  He speaks of the OC GOP prioritizing Costa Mesa this year.  Baugh asks Lynn Schott about her former alternate Patrick Rodgers who attacked the Costa Mesa Council majority and the Costa Mesa Charter.

8:46 PM: Schott says Rodgers was a strong supporter in 2010.  She says she was completely unaware of Rodgers’s statements until the Endorsements Committee meeting.  She says she tries to not read blogs.  She condemns Rodgers’s statements and “repudiates” the attempt to frame Righeimer for DUI.  Rodgers admitted to her that he had gone too far.  She obtained his resignation on September 7 (the same week that she learned of his statements).  She says she fully supports Prop 32 and opposes the unions’ efforts to “consolidate their power over choosing City Councilmembers” and other governmental bodies.  She says she is against defined benefit retirement programs and favors defined contribution retirement programs.

8:51 PM: Schott is endorsed by a unanimous voice vote.

Orange City Measure FF

8:51 PM: Villa Park Councilwoman Deborah Pauly speaks of being contacted by numerous Republicans expressing their concerns about Measure FF.  Pauly says the “No on FF” side did not get a chance to speak to the Endorsements Committee.  She says thousands of  Republicans, independents, and Democrats signed a petition to get a referendum to force FF on to the ballot.  She says this is an issue that is divisive to Republicans, and she moves that the Republican Party take no stance on Measure FF.

8:54 PM: Orange Mayor Pro Tem Denis Bilodeau speaks of the landowner wishing to build 36 homes on 50 acres of land on a 4-1 vote, who he notes the 1 is a Democrat who is receiving bundled campaign contributions from “No on FF.”  Bilodeau says it is a property rights issue and makes a substitute motion to endorse Measure FF (reverting to the original recommendation from the Endorsements Committee).

8:57 PM: Marcia Gilchrist speaks in favor of Bilodeau’s substitute motion.  She says the people objecting to the construction of the homes are trying to impeded a property owner from doing what they want with their own land.

8:58 PM: By voice vote, the OC GOP endorses “Yes on Measure FF.”

Fullerton City Council – Jennifer Fitzgerald

9:00 PM: Tim Whitacre moves to not endorse Jennifer Fitzgerald for Fullerton City Council, with Allan Bartlett seconding.  He speaks of Barry Levinson’s efforts on behalf of Fullerton.  He says Levinson is no longer seeking the party endorsement to prevent divisiveness in the OC GOP.  Whitacre provides an email showing Fitzgerald asking Tony Bedolla on behalf of her client (Troy Edgar) to bundle $99 contributions from union members.

9:03 PM: County Supervisor Shawn Nelson speaks of being the only person in the room to face $1.2 million in hostile union IEs.  He speaks of the 2002 successful effort to drive Democrat Jan Flory off the Fullerton City Council, but Flory is running again.  Nelson speaks of her history working for Republicans.  Nelson says he previously supported Levinson, but Levinson has made two unsuccessful bids for Fullerton Council.  He notes a conservative woman has not been elected to the Fullerton City Council since 1986.

9:06 PM: Baugh notes that in the OC GOP union-free pledge, the party welcomes contributions of individual union members but not of the union itself.

9:07 PM: Fullerton Mayor Pro Tem Bruce Whitaker notes that his city has had two recalls in two decades.  He says there is an opportunity for Fullerton right now.  He says he has a bias in favor of activism.  He says Republicans should have bold colors not pale pastels.  Whitaker expresses his concern about her relative lack of public statements on issues other than outsourcing the Fullerton Police Department to the Orange County Sheriff’s Department.  Whitaker urges OC GOP neutrality between Fitzgerald and Levinson.

9:09 PM: My Central Committee member arrives, so my alternate voting power is gone.  I now only wear one hat as your intrepid blogger.

9:10 PM: Mary Young speaks of knowing Fitzgerald for 19 years.  She says if someone is an activist for 17 years but is gone for 2 years, that 2 years of inactivity does not outweigh the 17 years of activism.

9:11 PM: By voice vote, the committee did something.  No one is sure what happened.

9:12 PM: There is now a standing vote.

9:15 PM: The count is 31 people voting in favor of the party being neutral between Fitzgerald and Levinson, and 23 people voting in favor of endorsing Fitzgerald.

There is no endorsement for Fullerton City Council, other than incumbents Bruce Whitaker and Travis Kiger, who were endorsed in August.

Anaheim City Council – Brian Neil Chuchua

9:16 PM: Tim Whitacre moves to endorse Brian Chuchua, with Baron Night seconding.  Whitacre notes Lodge opted to withdraw his own endorsement request.  Whitacre warns of the union’s big push in Anaheim.  He says that Mayor Tom Tait needs all the help he can get.  He says Tait lobbied the party to not endorse Lodge.  Whitacre praises Chuchua as a good conservative who can help Mayor Tait.

9:18 PM: Baugh asks Whitacre if Tait has endorsed Chuchua.

9:18 PM: Whitacre says, “Tait has not yet endorsed Mr. Chuchua at this time.”

9:18 PM: Jon Fleischman says he is uncomfortable voting to endorse Chuchua if Mayor Tait has not endorsed him.  He wants to hear from Mayor Tait.

9:19 PM: Pauly asks for the Endorsements Committee to clarify its rationale against Chuchua.

9:20 PM: Mary Young notes that Chuchua gave money to a Democrat.

9:20 PM: Ray Grangoff express his concern about the lack of the endorsement from Tait.

9:20 PM: Supervisor Shawn Nelson asks who the Democrat was.

9:21 PM: Chuchua says the Democrat was Anaheim City School District Candidate John Santoianni, “a personal friend.”

9:21 PM: Lucille Kring notes that Mayor Tait has only endorsed John Leos so far.  She notes Tait has not endorsed a second candidate.

9:22 PM: Thomas Gordon notes Kring told she’d prefer Chuchua as her Council colleague.

9:22 PM: Tim Whitacre says he has been reimbursed by Chuchua for various expenses related to Chuchua’s campaign.

9:23 PM: There is a standing vote.  There are 29 votes in favor of endorsing Chuchua, and there are 11 votes against endorsing Chuchua.  Chuchua joins Lucille Kring as the OCGOP-endorsed candidates for Anaheim City Council.

Jesse Petrilla Returns

9:26 PM: Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Jesse Petrilla is given a standing ovation after returning within the last week from his service with the Army National Guard in Afghanistan.

Mission Viejo City Council

9:28 PM: Baugh reads the minutes from the Endorsements Committee, though several Central Committee members ask me if Baugh is reading this post since the minutes sounds a lot like OC Political.

9:31 PM: Ray Grangoff speaks of Bucknum’s strong conservative record and property rights record.

9:33 PM: Larry Gilbert brings up various documents and exhibits showing Frank Ury backing Democrat Dave Leckness and Wendy Bucknum with a union-paid sign in her yard, with her support for Leckness and Trish Kelley, neither of whom were endorsed by the OC GOP.  (Scott Voigts says, “Wow” throughout Gilbert’s remarks.)  Gilbert shows a campaign finance report showing Ury linked to Democrats.

9:36 PM: Baugh has to ask Gilbert to leave the stage after Parliamentarian Kermit Marsh repeatedly stated that Gilbert’s time was up.

9:37 PM: Young argues Leckness has a conservative voting record and that activist Shirley Morgan had tried repeatedly to make Leckness re-register as a Republican.  Young asks what in Leckness’s voting record is not conservative.

9:38 PM: Bill Dunlap says the party should not pick between winners and losers because there are two spots and four Republicans seeking the seat.

9:39 PM: In response to an audience question, Baugh notes there are four Republicans among the six candidates.

9:39 PM: Peotter moves for no endorsement in Mission Viejo, and there is a near-unanimous voice vote for the OC GOP to be neutral in Mission Viejo.

Fountain Valley City Council – Steve Nagel

9:40 PM: Nagel endorsed with all but one vote.

Garden Grove City Council – Steve Jones

9:40 PM: Steve Sarkis moves and Denis Bilodeau seconds to endorse Steve Jones for re-election to Garden Grove City Council.

9:41 PM: Tim Whitacre moves to not endorse Jones because Jones has endorsed Democrat Tom Daly for State Assembly.

9:41 PM: Jones denies endorsing Daly.

9:42 PM: Baugh asks if he’s endorsed Republican Assembly Candidate Jose Moreno.

9:42 PM: Jones endorses Moreno on the spot.

9:42 PM: By voice vote, Jones is endorsed unanimously.

Newport Beach City Measure EE

9:44 PM: A representative speaks of a charter commission that amended various charter provisions seeking to update 58 year old language, streamline government, and reduce costs by eliminating class-action lawsuits.

9:47 PM: Scott Peotter blasts the measure’s compensation provisions that legalizes generous salaries and benefits for Councilmembers. He notes the Register opposes EE.

9:49 PM: Miraculously, Deborah Pauly and Jon Flesichman unite to make and second a motion to send Measure EE to the Endorsements Committee in October. The Central Committee applauses stunned that Pauly and Flesichman are united. They vote unanimously to support the Pauly-Fleischman motion.

Tustin City Measure HH

9:50 PM: Doug Davert says Measure HH eliminates Tustin City Council compensation.

9:50 PM: The vote to endorse Measure HH passes unanimously.

Central Committee Business

9:51 PM: Mary Young updates efforts on voter registration, including from Assemblywoman Diane Harkey.

9:53 PM: Norm Dickinson speaks of various bylaw cleanup amendments including conforming ex officio membership requirements to Prop 14.

9:56 PM: The bylaw amendments pass unanimously by voice vote.

9:57 PM: Zonya Townsend presents the Volunteer of the Month Award to Shalon Norman. Various other people make presentations to Norman.

10:03 PM: Parliamentarian Kermit Marsh is pleased to report there have been no ethics complaints so far in 2012. Marsh disputes the election polls, and notes the 21-14 football victory of #21 Stanford over #2 USC.

10:05 PM: There’s a report from Diane Glinchey regarding the Romney campaign efforts in OC and in several swing states.

10:07 PM: Ronea Hart speaks of the Team Santa Ana precinct walk at the Santa Ana GOP GOTV HQ and the Santa Ana TEA Party meeting.

10:08 PM: One speaker notes today is the 225th anniversary of the Constitution.

10:09 PM: Steve Sarkis reports on his discoveries of enormous signs for “No on 32” being delivered to a union hall.

10:09 PM: Mike Munzing plugs his fundraiser for Aliso Viejo Council.

10:10 PM: Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Tony Beall spoke of the GOTV HQ in his area.

10:11 PM: Kermit Marsh wins the raffle after pulling out a huge wad of tickets. He says the key to winning is buying the most tickets. Marsh’s victory is verified, and the meeting adjourns.

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