OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Posts Tagged ‘Sean Paden’

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Fullerton Recall

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 19, 2012

Now to one of the more controversial items on the ballot for this June in the Fullerton recall election. This race has been extremely vicious by both camps, and a lot is at stake with the Council majority up for grabs.

This race unlike other in this election is for 6 different things:

3 recalls

3 races to replace the recalled Councilmember (If recall passes)

The 3 Councilmembers up for recall include Don Bankead, Dick Jones, and Pat McKinley. Much question exists as to the real reason for the recall.

One side claims that the recall is because the Council has done a horrible job over the Kelly Thomas killing incident among other failures such as an alleged illegal water tax. The other side claims that Tony Bushala is simply trying to undo the results of the 2010 election and gain control of the Fullerton City Council.

The major factor at play here is that recalls once on the ballot never fail. This my prediction on the recall side of these races is:

All 3 Councilmembers Ousted

Unlike my other predictions the post does not stop with just that. A replacement must be made for each of the recalled Councilmembers.

The candidates running for the Don Bankhead seat include:

Rick Alvarez a Businessowner/Planning Commissioner who is a Republican. His appointment to the commission was actually by Don Bankhead.

Jane Rands a Systems Engineer and Green Party activist. She has run for quite a few offices in this area which will give her some name ID.

Greg Sebourn a Businessman/Educator and candidate for the Fullerton City Council in 2010. He is a Republican and the one mostly closely in line with the pro-recall folks.

Paula Williams a Public Employee and the only Democrat on the ballot for this seat.

The recall will pass but the elections for a replacement will likely come down to name ID and ballot designation. Greg Sebourn and Jane Rands will split the vote based on highest name ID leaving this seat to the candidate with the best ballot designation.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Rick Alvarez

The candidates running for the Dick Jones seat include:

Dorothy A. Birsic a Republican running with no ballot designation.

Glenn P. Georgieff an IT Specialist anda former Fullerton Library Trustee. He is a registered Democrat.

Matthew Hakim a Musician/Artist and registered Democrat.

Travis Kiger a Fullerton Planning Commissioner and the most closely in line with the pro-recall folks. He is a registered Republican.

Roberta J. Reid a student that is a DTS voter.

Once again this will likely come down to name ID and ballot designation. Travis Kiger has the best ballot designation out of all candidates in any of the 3 seats and he also has the highest name ID and the most comprehensive campaign being run. Nobody else has been actively in the mail, walking precincts, or putting up signs.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Travis Kiger

The candidates running for the Pat McKinley seat include:

Doug Chafee a Business Attorney and 2010 candidate for City Council. He is a registered Democrat and also a Fullerton Planning Commissioner.

Barry Levinson an Auditor/Parks Commissioner who is probably one of the most passionate people about local issues that I have ever seen. He is a registered Republican.

Sean Paden a Construction Attorney and a registered Republican.

Matthew Rowe an Aerospace Project Manager and a DTS voter.

This will be the closest of all 3 races. Barry Levinson has the best ballot designation in this race, however,  we have already witnessed him and Doug Chafee on the ballot in 2010. Chafee has the highest name ID of any candidate in this race yet he and Sean Paden split votes based on ballot designation.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district and mostly based on 2010 results I believe that the winner will be:

Doug Chafee

Posted in Fullerton | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 40 Comments »

Filing Recap: OC Dems’ Worst-Case Scenario Thanks to OCGOP Coups; AD-72 in Disarray; Spitzer, Pauly, & Rocco; Fullerton Recall Lineup Set; State Senate Races

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 12, 2012

Whole Lot of Candidates

Robert Hammond, Tom Daly, Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, Paco Barragan, Long Pham, Troy Edgar, Travis Allen, Joe Dovinh, Allan Mansoor, Leslie Daigle, Robert Rush, Albert Ayala, Todd Spitzer, Deborah Pauly, Janet Nguyen, and Steve Rocco. Not pictured for space considerations: Matt Harper, Tyler Diep, Bob Huff, Greg Diamond, Mimi Walters, Steve Young, and the 13 Fullerton Recall Candidates

Friday was such a busy candidate filing day that we still haven’t finished all our coverage of candidate filing action here on OC Political, but for those of you who weren’t reading over the weekend, here’s a quick rundown/annotated table of contents of what we’ve covered so far:

The big news that dominated our coverage was the AD-69/AD-72/OCBE chaos:

  • OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario Comes True: Coups Benefit Republicans in AD-69 & AD-74
    Republicans had long feared an all-Republican battle between Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, which would eat up Republican human and financial resources in both June and November.  There were further fears that Democrats would cast their votes for Daigle to oust the more conservative Mansoor.  These fears proved unfounded when Democrat Robert Rush qualified for the ballot.
    However, the scenario Republicans feared in AD-74 became the scenario Democrats face in AD-69.  Republican Robert Hammond pulled out of the AD-69 race, leaving four Democrats to face only each other in a bloody intra-party battle in June.  Then the top two of those four will face each other again in a bloody intra-party battle in November.  AD-69 will eat up Democratic human and financial resources in November when they could have been spending their time, energy, and money battling Republicans.
    (Prop 14 made this possible by eliminating traditional primaries, and requiring the top two candidates from the June primary to advance to the November general election, even if they’re from the same party, even if someone broke 50% in June, and even if there were only two candidates in June.)
  • Hammond Enters OCBE Race & Withdraws from AD-69, Producing OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario
    Republican Robert Hammond withdrew from the AD-69 race to enter the race for Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 1.  It was Hammond’s withdrawal from AD-69 that left Democrats in a bloody intra-party war in November, locking up Democratic resources to attack Democrats instead of Republicans.  OCBE 1 is held by conservative Republican Long Pham, who made all this possible by vacating his seat to run for AD-72.
  • AD-72: Five Candidates (Two Democrats, Three Republicans) Running
    The Republicans in the AD-72 race are OCBE Trustee Long Pham, Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar, and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.  The Democrats are Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh and 89-year-old Tea Party Democrat Albert Ayala.
  • Matt Harper opts out of 72 AD race
    Not among the candidates was Huntington Beach Councilman Matt Harper who announced his withdrawal on the final day of filing.  Just five weeks ago, the Republican line-up in AD-72 was expected to be Harper, Long Pham, and Westminster Councilman Tyler Diep.  Now Harper and Diep are out, replaced by Troy Edgar and Travis Allen.
  • Bizarre Travis Allen Strategy in AD-72: Alienate Non-Huntington Beach Voters and Declare Los Alamitos to Be “Foreign”
    With Matt Harper out and Travis Allen jumping in the race in the final days of filing, Allen certainly made a splash, with a pair of bizarre press releases that attacked Harper for endorsing “Foreign Candidate” Troy Edgar.

After all the AD-69/AD-72/OCBE chaos, how could we forget the legendary Spitzer-Pauly showdown?  And Steve Rocco!

  • Board of Supervisors: Two Crazy Races on the Docket
    The well-anticipated fiery battle for the Third Supervisorial District is proceeding as expected, with former Assemblyman/Supervisor Todd Spitzer and Villa Park Councilwoman Deborah Pauly facing off.  I don’t think Supervisor Janet Nguyen will object to being known as the boring candidate in her race, as her sole challenger is convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco.  (For the record, I am not related to Supervisor Nguyen. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Wait, there’s more!  The Fullerton Recall!

  • Battle for Fullerton: The Field is Set
    Thirteen candidates have filed for the three seats up for recall. Rick Alvarez (R), Janes Rands (G), Greg Sebourn (R), and Paula Williams (D) have filed to replace Don Bankhead.  Dorothy A. Birsic (R), Glenn P. Georgieff (D), Matthew Hakim (D), Travis Kiger (R), and Roberta Reid (NPP) have filed to replace Dick Jones.  Doug Chaffee (D), Barry Levinson (R), Sean Paden (R), and Matthew Rowe (NPP) have filed to replace Pat McKinley.

Still more…

We’re still not done with our candidate filing coverage, but at least, now, dear reader, you’re caught up.

I give South OC the award for most boring region in the 2012 Primary.  Things are much more interesting in the North OC and Central OC campaigns.  Fear not, South OC, I anticipate fun from you in the 2014 Primary to replace termed-out Supervisor Pat Bates unless Senator Mimi Walters decides to ruin it all by entering and clearing the field for herself, assuming Assemblywoman Diane Harkey continues on her path to the Board of Equalization.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Fullerton, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Los Alamitos, Orange County Board of Education, Rossmoor, Santa Ana, Seal Beach | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Battle for Fullerton: The Field is Set

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2012

Fullerton City Council Meeting(UPDATED SUNDAY 3/11 7:40 PM with most of the missing ballot designations.)

I realize I promised a post before midnight; I hope you’ll forgive five minutes delay.

In the Fullerton recall, voters will decide whether or not to recall City Councilmen Don Bankhead, Dick Jones, and Pat McKinley.  Each man’s recall is technically a separate race.  (I explained the logistics of the election in this post, as some of you may have read.)  Since each recall is technically a separate race, candidates had to pick one seat to run for.  (The Elections Code prevents them from running for more than one of the three seats at a time.)

So here’s a look at the candidates…

Running for Bankhead’s seat:

  • Rick Alvarez (R)Ballot Designation Not Yet Released by County Registrar or City Clerk Businessowner/Planning Commissioner
    A Fullerton Transportation & Circulation Commissioner, Alvarez originally pulled papers for all three seats.
  • Jane Rands (G) – Systems Engineer
    The Chair of the Fullerton Bicycle Users Subcommittee and Treasurer of the Green Party of Orange County, Rands originally pulled papers for all three seats.  She ran for the State Assembly in 2010.
  • Greg Sebourn (R) – Businessman/Educator
    The Chair of the Fullerton Citizen’s Infrastructure Review Commission and Assemblyman Chris Norby’s Alternate on the Republican Central Committee, Sebourn originally pulled papers for all three seats.  He ran for the City Council in 2010.
  • Paula Williams (D) – Public Employee
    Williams only pulled papers for this seat.

Running for Jones’s seat:

  • Dorothy A. Birsic (R) – Ballot Designation Not Yet Released by County Registrar or City Clerk
    Birsic only pulled papers for this seat.
  • Glenn P. Georgieff (D) – IT Specialist
    A former Fullerton Library Trustee, Georgieff only pulled papers this seat.
  • Matthew Hakim (D)Ballot Designation Not Yet Released by County Registrar or City Clerk Musician, Artist
    Hakim only pulled papers for this seat.
  • Travis Kiger (R) – Fullerton Planning Commissioner
    A Fullerton Planning Commissioner and blogger at Friends for Fullerton’s Future, Kiger only pulled papers for this seat.
  • Roberta J. Reid (NPP) – Student
    Reid originally pulled papers for all three seats.

Running for McKinley’s seat:

  • Doug Chaffee (D) – Business Attorney
    A former Fullerton Planning Commissioner, Chaffee pulled papers for all three seats.  He ran for the City Council in 2010.
  • Barry Levinson (R)Ballot Designation Not Yet Released by County Registrar or City Clerk Parks and Recreation Commissioner/Auditor
    A Fullerton Parks & Recreation Commissioner, Levinson pulled papers for all three seats. He ran for the City Council in 2010.
  • Sean Paden (R)Ballot Designation Not Yet Released by County Registrar or City Clerk Construction Attorney
    Paden only pulled papers for this seat.
  • Matthew Rowe (NPP) – Aerospace Project Manager
    Rowe orignally pulled papers for all three seats.

Tune in to OC Political after 6:00 AM for the wackiness of Central Committee and the partisan offices.

(As you might note, I’ve played it straight, reporting just the facts on this post, rather than doing any analysis.  In the interest of full disclosure, I should note my day job is working in the Fullerton office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who served on the Fullerton City Council from 1984-2002.  One of my co-workers in the office is Fullerton City Councilman Bruce Whitaker, who was elected in 2010 and is not a target of the recall.)

Posted in Fullerton | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »