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Posts Tagged ‘Glen Stroud’

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 69

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 24, 2012

AD 69 is a tough place to find Republicans, so it is always nice to see a contested race for the Central Committee here. This race did manage to garner less than 20 candidates though thus making it one of the tame ones.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Charles Hart– Former candidate for Santa Ana Mayor and current appointed member of the Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Thomas Anthony Gordon– Clearly we here at OC Political have to cheer for our fellow blogger Thomas Gordon who is running for re-election. *Incumbent.

Brett Elliott Franklin– He is a former member of the Santa Ana City Council and current elected member of the OC GOP Central Committee.

Timothy “Tim” Ryan Whitacre– Tim is a current elected member of the Central Committee and also the member who chose to challenge Scott Baugh for the Chairmanship this past year. *Incumbent.

Robert Morris Hammond– He is currently the only hope for Republicans for the Orange County Board of Education and is a nice guy from my interactions with him. *Incumbent. (Full Disclosure: He is a Custom Campaigns client.)

Cuong Sinh Cao– He is a very quiet individual who has been a solid vote on the Central Committee during his tenure. *Incumbent.

Gwen A. Dyrud– Gwen Dyrud was appointed to this seat at some point in the past year and can run as an incumbent on the ballot. *Incumbent.

Bryan Carter– A software engineer that was hard to find any information about.

Lupe Moreno– She is an Office Specialist who is best known for her work with the Minuteman Project and Jim Gilchrist.

Glen Stroud– I have met him once before and he is actually a nice guy. He is listed on the ballot as a Retired Recreation Supervisor.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Robert Morris Hammond
2. Brett Elliot Franklin
3. Thomas Anthony Gordon
4. Charles Hart
5. Cuong Sinh Cao
6. Timothy “Tim” Ryan Whitacre

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

OC’s Worst Ballot Designations

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 29, 2012

Ballot designations are the only piece of information that appear directly on the ballot other than a candidate's name.

The most important thing a candidate does in a campaign may well be selecting a ballot designation.  That little phrase underneath a candidate’s name are the last piece of information that voters see before casting their ballots.  In low-profile races (like Central Committee, where you can’t even get a candidate’s statement in the sample ballot), that little phrase may well be the only piece of information that voters see before casting their ballots.

Adam Probolsky has written about good and bad ballot designations, on (I believe) both Flash Report and old Red County, and he’s spoken about them in the press.  Inspired by his old commentary, I now present to you Orange County’s worst ballot designations (I’ll write about Orange County’s best ballot designations next week).

OC’s Ten Worst Ballot Designations

I would be shocked if any of these people with truly awful ballot designations win (with the possible exception of Lupe Moreno, who might be able to overcome her awful designation with her high name ID):

  1. Student (Roberta J. Reid in the Fullerton Recall, Kathryn Pena in the 73rd District Democratic Central Committee)
    The electorate does not vote for students.  Sorry, life’s unfair, but voters will not vote for a student.  Some of you will point to young candidates who have been elected, but guess what, they didn’t use the “Student” ballot designation.
    My advice to students running for office: pick “Community Volunteer” if you don’t have a job or “Businessman” or “Businesswoman” if you have a job (even a part-time job).
  2. Musician, Artist (Matthew Hakim in the Fullerton Recall)
    What on earth makes a musician or an artist qualified to hold elected office?  People like to listen to music and to look at art, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to vote for musicians or artists.
    My advice to musicians and artists running for office: pick “Businessman” or “Businesswoman”
  3. Homemaker (Patricia Ross in the 72nd District Republican Central Committee)
    While homemakers are absolutely essential to the well-functioning of people’s homes and ultimately, society, people are unwilling to vote for homemakers for elected office.  Sorry, as with students, life is unfair, and voters will not cast their ballots for homemakers.
    My advice to homemakers running for office: pick “Community Volunteer”
  4. Self-Employed Hairdresser (Heidi A. Bressler in the 74th District Democratic Central Committee)
    Why is anyone going to vote for a hairdresser?  Voters aren’t going to go for that.  What special attributes does a hairdresser bring to elected office?
    My advice to self-employed hairdressers running for office: pick “Small Business Owner” or “Businesswoman/Entrepreneur”
  5. Office Specialist (Lupe Moreno in the 69th District Republican Central Committee)
    What is an office specialist?  I think it’s something clerical.  (For the record, this is the County’s description.) If Lupe Moreno wins, it’ll be due to her long-term name ID in spite of her ballot designation.
    My advice to office specialists running for office: “Office Coordinator” or “Analyst” makes you sound more impressive.
  6. Plumbing Contractor (Kevin Richardson in the 73rd District Republican Central Committee)
    Unless you’re Joe the Plumber, I really don’t think voters are going to vote for anyone with “Plumbing” as part of their ballot designation.  People just aren’t big fans of plumbers.  Think of all the stereotypes of plumbers, and they aren’t flattering.
    My advice to plumbing contractors running for office: pick “Small Businessman” or “Business Contractor”
  7. Retail Sales Associate (Joshua Robert Morales in the 68th District Republican Central Committee)
    Why would voters cast their ballots for a retail sales associates?  What makes a retail sales associate uniquely qualified for office?
    My advice to retail sales associates running for office: “Businessman” or “Businesswoman”
  8. Retired Executive Secretary (Heide Krueger in the 74th District Democratic Central Committee)
    Executive secretaries are key players in what happens in an office and control access to the executives.  However, life’s unfair, and many people lack respect for the position and will not vote for one.
    My advice to [retired] executive secretaries running for office: “[Retired] Businesswoman” or “[Retired] Businessman”
  9. Executive Assistant (Erin Shawn in the 73rd District Democratic Central Committee)
    Executive assistants have virtually the same problem as executive secretaries, though there may be some people who make distinctions between the assistants and secretaries.
    My advice to executive assistants running for office: “Businesswoman” or “Businessman”
  10. Retired Recreation Supervisor (Glen Stroud in the 69th District Republican Central Committee)
    What would motivate people to vote for a recreation supervisor?  Stroud’s claims to fame as being a twice-ousted Santa Ana City Commissioner and a grand juror likely does not produce high enough name ID to overpower this bad ballot designation.
    My advice to [retired] recreation supervisors running for office: “[Retired] County Manager” or “[Retired] City Supervisor” (Stroud is the former, FYI); unfortunately, these are not interchangeable as “[Retired] County Supervisor” and “[Retired] City Manager” would be unacceptable due to their wildly different meanings.

(In all cases above from my advice, businessman/businesswoman/businessperson are interchangeable, of course.)

Worst Set of Ballot Designations in One Race: CD-46

  • Escrow Company Owner (Pat Garcia, Republican)
  • Tax Accountant (Jorge Rocha, Republican)
  • United States Representative – 47th District (Loretta Sanchez, Incumbent Democrat)
  • Local Independent Businessman (Jerry Hayden, Republican)
  • Strategy Manager/Accountant (John J. Cullum, Republican)

The old saying, “less is more” applies to all five of these ballot designations.  None of these in and of themselves would make the list of worst ballot designations, but collectively, they are the worst set of any one race.

  • Garcia should have just gone with “Small Business Owner” as his ballot designation.  I can’t imagine there’s a huge voter base of escrow officers.
  • Rocha should have just gone with “Accountant” or “Businessman” because a “Tax Accountant” sounds like some horrible agent of the IRS even though his job is actually helping people battle the IRS.
  • Sanchez should have left her district number off.  She inadvertently makes herself look like a carpetbagger when really her district was simply renumbered.  Fortunately for her, she has very high name ID in her district (high even for an incumbent) and throughout the county, and frankly it’s still by far the best ballot designation in this contest.
  • Hayden slapped on too many adjectives and picked odd wording.  People are more used to “Small Businessman” than “Independent Businessman” in their common vernacular.  Indeed, “Local Independent Businessman” sounds much colder and unfriendly than “Local Small Businessman” as a ballot designation.
  • On Cullum: what exactly is a Strategy Manager anyway?

So those are Orange County’s worst ballot designations.  I’ll write next week about Orange County’s best ballot designations.

(In the interest of full disclosure, I should note my day job is working in the Fullerton office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who served on the Fullerton City Council from 1984-2002.  One of my co-workers in the office is Fullerton City Councilman Bruce Whitaker, who was elected in 2010 and is not a target of the recall.  Since I referenced him at the start of this post, I should also note I have not spoken to Adam Probolsky [nor Chris Norby or Bruce Whitaker, for that matter] about this post, although I hope he would be in agreement with my analysis above.  The opinions expressed in this post are exclusively my own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Chris Norby, Bruce Whitaker, or Adam Probolsky.)

Posted in 46th Congressional District, Fullerton, Orange County, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

Central Committee Races Finalized

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on March 12, 2012

The OC GOP Central Committee races have been finalized.

Here are the candidates that qualified for the ballot (top 6 win in each district):

55th Assembly District

Brett Barbre                  Appointed Incumbent
Jim Domen                   Pastor
Karla Downing             Small Business Owner
Desare Ferraro             Small Business Consultant
Peggy Huang                Deputy Attorney General
Connie Lanzisera         Small Business Owner
Robert Lauten
Brenda McCune           Businesswoman/Childrens Advocate
Tim Shaw                      Mayor, City of La Habra
Dennis R. White          Mechanical Engineer

65th Assembly District

Samuel “Sam” Han      Appointed Incumbent
Steve Hwangbo             Councilman/Businessman/Father
Jerry Jackson                Retired Aerospace Engineer
Sou Moua                       Businessman
Shawn Nelson               Orange County Supervisor
Baron Night                   Incumbent
Greg Sebourn                Businessman/Educator
David John Shawver   Mayor Pro Tem
Pat Shuff                        Incumbent
Henry Charoen             Mayor/Businessman
Alexandria Coronado  Small Business Owner

68th Assembly District

Denis Bilodeau              Mayor Pro Tem
James Brownfield         Business Owner
Mark William Bucher     Incumbent
Steven S. Choi                  Irvine City Councilman
Jon Dumitru                     City Councilman
Marcia Gilchrist               Incumbent
Ray Grangoff                    Incumbent
Jeffrey Lalloway              Irvine Councilmember/Businessman
Joshua Robert Morales  Retail Sales Associate
Walter H. Myers, III       Software Consultant
Noel Stone Parrish          Businesswoman
Deborah Pauly                 Councilwoman, City of Villa Park
Lynn Schott                      Entrepreneur/Educator
Todd Spitzer                     Businessman/Victims Advocate
Scott “Scotty” Voigts       Lake Forest City Councilman
Fred M. Whitaker            City of Orange Councilman/Businessman
Ken L. Williams Jr.         Member, Orange County Board of Education
Nick Wilson                      Small Business Owner

69th Assembly District

Cuong Sinh Cao                            Incumbent
Bryan Carter                                 Software Engineer
Gwen A. Dyrud                             Appointed Incumbent
Brett Elliott Franklin                   Incumbent
Thomas Anthony Gordon           Incumbent
Robert Morris Hammond           Business Owner/Teacher
Charles Hart                                  Appointed Incumbent
Lupe Moreno                                 Office Specialist
Glen Stroud                                    Retired Recreation Supervisor
Timothy “Tim” Ryan Whitacre  Incumbent

72nd Assembly District

John W. Briscoe            Certified Public Accountant
Dennis R. Catron           Small Businessman
Patrick Dooley
Michael E. Gates             Businessman/Attorney
Dean Grose                      Small Business Owner
Matthew Harper             Huntington Beach City Councilman
Brian Hoops                    Special Needs Educator
Diane A. Lenning           Small Business Owner
Kermit Marsh                  Incumbent
Mark McCurdy                Fountain Valley City Councilmember
Steve A. Nagel                 Incumbent
Janet Nguyen                  Orange County Supervisor
Patricia Ross                    Homemaker
Mary Tuong Van Pham  Businesswoman

73rd Assembly District

Alice Anderson                   Incumbent
Nesa Anderson                   Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman
Linda Barnes                      Community Volunteer
Tony Beall                           Incumbent
Evan P. Chafee                   Marketing Sales/Representative
Chandra Chell                     Computer Systems Analyst
Nina R. Davar                     Export Assistant Manager
Norm Dickinson                 Retired Naval Officer
Mark Dobrilovic                 Financial Advisor
John C. Drew                      Author/Speaker/Consultant
Dave Duringer                    Gun Trust Attorney
Jon Steven Fleischman     Small Business Owner
Roy Fussell                          Realtor
Paul Hebbard                      Certified Public Accountant
Michael Kogus                    Business Owner
Steve Magdziak                   Small Business Owner
Mike Munzing                     Incumbent
Nancy Padberg                    Governing Board Member, South Orange Co. Community College District
Kevin Richardson               Plumbing Contractor
Eric Stolaski                         Small Business Owner
Greg Woodard                     Appointed Incumbent
Mary Young                          Incumbent

74th Assembly District

Jon Aiken                                Office Clerk
Allan Bartlett                          Incumbent
Scott Baugh                             Incumbent
John Draper                            Businessman
Bill Dunlap                              General Contractor
Thomas A. “T.J.” Fuentes    Businessman
Don Hansen                            Mayor, City of Huntington Beach
Daniel Marshall                      Attorney
Jeff Mathews                          Business Owner
Vanessa A. Matthews            Small Business Owner
Gary Morse                             Retired Business Owner
Richard “Dick” Palmer         Community Volunteer
Scott “Scotty” Peotter           Businessman/Legislative Analyst
Rhonda Rohrabacher           Small Business Owner
Emily Sanford                        Retired Navy Captain
Christina L. Shea                   Businesswoman
John Warner                          Incumbent

This is simply a list of the candidates that qualified for the ballot along with their ballot designations. After the alphabetical lottery we will make some predictions on who we think will actually win these races.

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

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