OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Posts Tagged ‘Steve Young’

Poll Results in CD 45: Spitzer Is The Frontrunner

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on July 2, 2013

This morning Jon Fleischman posted the results of a poll conducted by Lewis Consulting Group, that showed the favorables/unfavorables of some potential candidates along with results of some hypothetical matches. The results were not what I expected to see, with what appears to be a wide open race amongst a few front-runners. I talked to John Lewis this morning after the poll was released and he had this to say, “The goal with this poll was to try and best replicate predicted 2014 turnout. This is clearly a wide open race and results will largely depend on who decides to run.”

200px-Spitzer_portrait_wiki
You can view the entire poll by clicking CD45-Crosstab-Tables-I.

Lets start by taking a look at the raw numbers for favorables vs unfavorables for each candidate in the running, in order to use a single number to represent favorability, I am taking the percentage that represents favorables and subtracting the percentage that represents unfavorables in order to create a net favorability ranking system. Here are the rankings based 0n this net favorability:

(R) Todd Spitzer +25% (OC Supervisor)
(R) Ed Royce +20% (Congressman)
(D) Sukhee Kang +13% (Former Irvine Mayor)
(R) Mimi Walter +13% (State Senator)
(D) Steve Young +12%  (Perennial Dem Candidate)
(R) Gary Miller +10% (Congressman)
(R) Don Wagner +10% (State Assemblyman)
(R) Scott Baugh +8% (Chairman of OCGOP)
(D) Beth Krom +4%
(D) Barack Obama -28% (This was simply his approval rating, I am fairly certain he has no intention of seeking this seat)

The fact that Todd Spitzer had the highest net favorability was not especially surprising to me because a lot of my non-political friends are aware of some of his public safety initiatives that he has worked on. I am most surprised by Steve Young having a 12% net favorability rating, although my instinct states that perhaps some football fans got confused on this one.

This data does not also take into account that some other potential candidates are looming out there, including but not limited to Steven Choi (Current Irvine Mayor), John Moorlach (OC Supervisor), and some of the wealthy private sector individuals that could self-fund a campaign. On the Dem side I hear rumblings of Irvine Councilmember Larry Agran jumping into this race and I would argue that he would be the Democrat most likely to advance to November.

My favorite part of the poll was the hypothetical match-ups that were polled including the following scenarios:

Mimi Walters vs. Gary Miller vs. Beth Krom

Walters 25.0%
Krom 21.3%
Miller 21.0%

This matchup is interesting because Walters is definitely in this race and I have heard from more than a couple of insiders that Gary Miller is strongly considering a move back to Orange County to run for this seat due to the fact that his current seat is one that could very easily go blue in 2016. A 4% gap is not very hard to overcome especially when you consider margin of error of any poll.

Mimi Walters vs. Ed Royce vs. Beth Krom

Royce 25.7%
Krom 22.3%
Walters 20.3%

I am not surprised that Royce is leading in this matchup due to the fact that he is a sitting Congressman who has higher name ID than Gary Miller in Orange County. The surprising part is that Walters is within striking distance of him and could beat him in a head-to-head matchup.

Mimi Walters vs. Todd Spitzer vs. Beth Krom

Spitzer 29.0%
Krom 22.0%
Walters 19.7%

Wow!!!!! This result on its own shows me that Todd Spitzer can have this seat if he wants it.

Mimi Walters vs. Ed Royce vs. Beth Krom

Walters 26.7%
Krom 23.0%
Wagner 15.7%

Don Wagner is my personal favorite of all the candidates considered in this poll but these numbers look to be a steep hill to climb in a hypothetical matchup that includes Walters.

Mimi Walters vs. Steve Young vs. Beth Krom vs. Sukhee Kang

Walters 41.0%
Krom 10.3%
Young 8.7%
Kang 7.3%

These numbers show that a Democrat winning this seat is highly unlikely. I believe that Larry Agran would be able to finish ahead of all of the rest of these folks in CD 45 on the Dem side.

Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments »

Useless, Meaningless, Ridiculous Campaigns In June

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 16, 2012

One of the major flaws that I have found in Prop 14 is the way t moves candidates from June to November. As an example, if Troy Edgar was running for Supervisor with the same field that he had in the Assembly race, and received over 50% of the vote he would win and no November election would take place.


(Infamous Abel Maldonado)

However, if that same race was to take place for a seat in the California State Assembly the race under the new Prop 14 rules even if a candidate received only 1 vote they would still advance to November in a head to head race. This therefore creates a number of races that essentially are glorified polls in June.

Races that would fall under this category include:

SD 29- A race between State Senator and Workers Rights Attorney Greg Diamond. I am hoping that Huff wins this race based on his policy decisions (Even though he is a bit of a squish on certain issues.). Greg Diamond is an Orange Juice blogger, a very smart man (he will let you know it, too) with an education that would rival my fellow blogger Chris Nguyen, and his best quality is that he reads this blog.

SD 37- This race is between sitting Senator Mimi Walters and perennial candidate Steve Young. Walter s is running for reelection after having defeated Harry Sidhu in her first race for Senate. Steve Young appears willing to run for any seat as I believe this is the 3rd campaign I have seen him run.

AD 55- Curt Hagman against Greg Fritchle. This race is a true yawner as it involves a district that covers Orange, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino. Hagman is a former Chino Hills City Councilman that defeated Larry Dick for this seat back in 2008. He is now running for his last term in the Assembly. (Did I mention that I am happy to have Don Wagner as my Assemblyman).

AD 65- Chris Norby is running against Sharon Quirk-Silva for this seat. This race actually does matter in June, despite the fact that both candidates will advance to November. If Quirk-Silva does well in June, we could see some more Democratic resources be poured into this race. It is important for Norby to crush her in June.

AD 68- Assemblyman Don Wagner is running against perennial candidate Christina Avalos. The new AD 68 is pretty awesome and a huge step up for Anaheim Hills from the old AD 60. Wagner is in probably the safest seat for any Republican Assembly member in California, although I may be wrong on this particular statistic.

AD 73- This one will be interesting to watch in terms of the mail that gets sent out with Assemblywoman Diane Harkey facing off against infamous Capistrano Unified School District teacher James Corbett. The question comes down to whether or not mail gets sent out in June, or if it is held off until the November election.

1st Supervisorial District-  Some of you may think that you have caught me slipping up, as this race will be decided in June. However read the title and you will understand. This race will be a good one to chuckle over. Rocco is best known for his conspiracy that he is part of a murder plot concocted by Albertsons, Smokecraft Sausage, and Kodak.

I would say to sit back and enjoy watching the races to see who wins, but in this case nobody actually wins. This is with the obvious exception of the 1st Supervisorial District.

Posted in 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Filing Recap: OC Dems’ Worst-Case Scenario Thanks to OCGOP Coups; AD-72 in Disarray; Spitzer, Pauly, & Rocco; Fullerton Recall Lineup Set; State Senate Races

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 12, 2012

Whole Lot of Candidates

Robert Hammond, Tom Daly, Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, Paco Barragan, Long Pham, Troy Edgar, Travis Allen, Joe Dovinh, Allan Mansoor, Leslie Daigle, Robert Rush, Albert Ayala, Todd Spitzer, Deborah Pauly, Janet Nguyen, and Steve Rocco. Not pictured for space considerations: Matt Harper, Tyler Diep, Bob Huff, Greg Diamond, Mimi Walters, Steve Young, and the 13 Fullerton Recall Candidates

Friday was such a busy candidate filing day that we still haven’t finished all our coverage of candidate filing action here on OC Political, but for those of you who weren’t reading over the weekend, here’s a quick rundown/annotated table of contents of what we’ve covered so far:

The big news that dominated our coverage was the AD-69/AD-72/OCBE chaos:

  • OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario Comes True: Coups Benefit Republicans in AD-69 & AD-74
    Republicans had long feared an all-Republican battle between Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, which would eat up Republican human and financial resources in both June and November.  There were further fears that Democrats would cast their votes for Daigle to oust the more conservative Mansoor.  These fears proved unfounded when Democrat Robert Rush qualified for the ballot.
    However, the scenario Republicans feared in AD-74 became the scenario Democrats face in AD-69.  Republican Robert Hammond pulled out of the AD-69 race, leaving four Democrats to face only each other in a bloody intra-party battle in June.  Then the top two of those four will face each other again in a bloody intra-party battle in November.  AD-69 will eat up Democratic human and financial resources in November when they could have been spending their time, energy, and money battling Republicans.
    (Prop 14 made this possible by eliminating traditional primaries, and requiring the top two candidates from the June primary to advance to the November general election, even if they’re from the same party, even if someone broke 50% in June, and even if there were only two candidates in June.)
  • Hammond Enters OCBE Race & Withdraws from AD-69, Producing OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario
    Republican Robert Hammond withdrew from the AD-69 race to enter the race for Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 1.  It was Hammond’s withdrawal from AD-69 that left Democrats in a bloody intra-party war in November, locking up Democratic resources to attack Democrats instead of Republicans.  OCBE 1 is held by conservative Republican Long Pham, who made all this possible by vacating his seat to run for AD-72.
  • AD-72: Five Candidates (Two Democrats, Three Republicans) Running
    The Republicans in the AD-72 race are OCBE Trustee Long Pham, Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar, and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.  The Democrats are Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh and 89-year-old Tea Party Democrat Albert Ayala.
  • Matt Harper opts out of 72 AD race
    Not among the candidates was Huntington Beach Councilman Matt Harper who announced his withdrawal on the final day of filing.  Just five weeks ago, the Republican line-up in AD-72 was expected to be Harper, Long Pham, and Westminster Councilman Tyler Diep.  Now Harper and Diep are out, replaced by Troy Edgar and Travis Allen.
  • Bizarre Travis Allen Strategy in AD-72: Alienate Non-Huntington Beach Voters and Declare Los Alamitos to Be “Foreign”
    With Matt Harper out and Travis Allen jumping in the race in the final days of filing, Allen certainly made a splash, with a pair of bizarre press releases that attacked Harper for endorsing “Foreign Candidate” Troy Edgar.

After all the AD-69/AD-72/OCBE chaos, how could we forget the legendary Spitzer-Pauly showdown?  And Steve Rocco!

  • Board of Supervisors: Two Crazy Races on the Docket
    The well-anticipated fiery battle for the Third Supervisorial District is proceeding as expected, with former Assemblyman/Supervisor Todd Spitzer and Villa Park Councilwoman Deborah Pauly facing off.  I don’t think Supervisor Janet Nguyen will object to being known as the boring candidate in her race, as her sole challenger is convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco.  (For the record, I am not related to Supervisor Nguyen. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Wait, there’s more!  The Fullerton Recall!

  • Battle for Fullerton: The Field is Set
    Thirteen candidates have filed for the three seats up for recall. Rick Alvarez (R), Janes Rands (G), Greg Sebourn (R), and Paula Williams (D) have filed to replace Don Bankhead.  Dorothy A. Birsic (R), Glenn P. Georgieff (D), Matthew Hakim (D), Travis Kiger (R), and Roberta Reid (NPP) have filed to replace Dick Jones.  Doug Chaffee (D), Barry Levinson (R), Sean Paden (R), and Matthew Rowe (NPP) have filed to replace Pat McKinley.

Still more…

We’re still not done with our candidate filing coverage, but at least, now, dear reader, you’re caught up.

I give South OC the award for most boring region in the 2012 Primary.  Things are much more interesting in the North OC and Central OC campaigns.  Fear not, South OC, I anticipate fun from you in the 2014 Primary to replace termed-out Supervisor Pat Bates unless Senator Mimi Walters decides to ruin it all by entering and clearing the field for herself, assuming Assemblywoman Diane Harkey continues on her path to the Board of Equalization.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Fullerton, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Los Alamitos, Orange County Board of Education, Rossmoor, Santa Ana, Seal Beach | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

State Senate Races: Republican Senators Face Democrat Attorneys

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2012

29th Senate District and 37th Senate DistrictDue to redistricting, Orange County will be part of five Senate districts: the 29th, 32nd, 34th, 36th, and 37th.  While the 32nd, 34th, and 36th won’t be up until 2014, this year’s ballot will feature the 29th and 37th Senate District races.

SD-29

In SD-29, the candidates are:

  • Robert “Bob” Huff (R) – Lawmaker/Business Owner
  • Greg Diamond (D) – Workers’ Rights Attorney

Huff, a resident of LA County, is the current Senate Republican Leader.  Diamond is an Orange County attorney, who is also a blogger for Orange Juice and serves as a liaison for Occupy Orange County.

SD-29 includes North Orange County, southeastern Los Angeles County, and the City of Chino Hills in San Bernardino County.  The LA County portion of SD-29 consists of the whole cities of Diamond Bar, Rowland Heights, and Walnut, along with portions of the City of Industry and West Covina.  The OC portion of SD-29 consists of the whole cities of Brea, Cypress, Fullerton, La Habra, Placentia, Stanton, and Yorba Linda, along with portions of Anaheim and Buena Park.

SD-37

In SD-37, the candidates are:

Walters is Vice Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.  Young is an attorney, who ran against John Campbell for Congress three times.

SD-37 is entirely inside Orange County and consists of the whole cities of Costa Mesa, Irvine, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, Lake Forest, Newport Beach, Tustin, and Villa Park, along with Anaheim Hills and North Tustin, as well as portions of Anaheim (east of the 57 freeway), most of Orange (east of the 57 freeway), and half of Huntington Beach (south of Talbert Avenue and Seapoint Avenue).

Posted in 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , | 15 Comments »