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Posts Tagged ‘Kevin Richardson’

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 73

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 25, 2012

AD 73 is a bastion of conservatism, and it will be a safe Republican seat in both the June and November election for Assemblywoman Harkey.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Dave Duringer– He is a gun trust attorney who I believe is involved in the tea party (not 100% sure on that. He also ran for the Central Committee back in 2010 prior to redistricting when his district was the 71st.

Mary Young– She has been an activist with the Republican Party of Orange County for a very long time. She is also campaigning the hardest of anybody I have ever seen for a Central Committee seat. *Incumbent.

Mike Munzing– He was at one point running against John Campbell for Congress and then wisely decided to run for Aliso Viejo City Council. He is very good at marketing himself from what I have witnessed through his many activities. *Incumbent.

Alice Anderson– She is currently an incumbent in this district. I would encourage those involved in OCGOP politics to seek out a way to sign her nomination papers if you live in this district. *Incumbent.

Norm Dickinson– Many people who I have talked to have said that he is the foremost expert on the bylaws in the Republican Party of Orange County. I cannot see that I disagree from what I have witnessed. *Incumbent.

Steve Magdziak– He is one of the few that has set up a website for his Central Committee race http://www.stevemagdziak.com/ His website does not include much information about his background but if I had to guess I would think he was part of the Ron Paul crowd.

Chandra Chell– She is active in Republican politics through Atlas PAC among other things and she has also been involved in the CRA among other Republican volunteer organizations. *Incumbent.

Linda Barnes– From a bit of research I have learned that she is part of the leadership team with OC912 a conservative group which is tied to the tea party.

Greg Woodard– He recently friended me on Facebook. After having a conversation with him I found that he is involved in a lot of conservative groups including Atlas PAC and Family Action PAC. He was also appointed to a seat on the OC GOP Central Committee making him an incumbent as well. *Incumbent.

Nancy Padberg– She was previously on the Central Committee but was one of the members that was ousted in this past election. As an elected official on the South Orange County Community College District, her name ID will be high.

Tony Beall– He currently is an incumbent on both the Central Committee and on the Rancho Santa Margarita City Council. He also has been a conservative voice on the issues involving the Capistrano Unified School District. *Incumbent.

Kevin Richardson– According to the very little that I could find out about him he is one of the co-founders of SOC912 which I referenced above (OC912).

Nina R. Davar– I am seeing a trend here as when I did a bit of googling I found her name attached to SOC912 as well as other candidates with tea party ties.

John C. Drew– A writer for Examiner.com on Republican Party of Orange County Republican politics. He had a lot of information on his bio including the fact that he is an award-winning political scientist.

Susan A. Bock– I was unable to find any information on her.

Nesa Anderson– She is a Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman from what I believe is San Clemente. She also won the lottery to appear first on the ballot.

Evan P. Chafee– He will appear on the ballot as a Marketing Sales Representative. All I could find about him is that he is from San Juan Capistrano.

Mark Dobrilovic– He is an activist that I have heard about tat runs in the Tea Party circles. He also ran for Mission Viejo City Council in 2010.

Jon Steven Fleischman– He is a major player in Republican Party Politics and he runs te popular Flash Report website. I definitely see him winning one of the 6 available seats.

Roy Fussell– A Realtor who is running, I was unable to find much more information.

Paul Hebbard– He is listed on the ballot as a Certified Public Accountant and outside of that I know very little.

Michael Kogus– He is listed on the ballot as a Business Owner, but like some of the other challengers I was unable to find any information on him.

Erik Stolaski– He is a Tea Party Republican who I believe worked on the Nelson for Supervisor campaign if I recall correctly.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Alice Anderson
2. Tony Beall
3. Mary Young
4. Mike Munzing
5.  Greg Woodard Jon Steven Fleischman
 This was a mistake on my part when writing the post. My apologies to Greg Woodard who is a really nice guy and a very solid Republican.
6. Nancy Padberg

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

OC’s Worst Ballot Designations

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 29, 2012

Ballot designations are the only piece of information that appear directly on the ballot other than a candidate's name.

The most important thing a candidate does in a campaign may well be selecting a ballot designation.  That little phrase underneath a candidate’s name are the last piece of information that voters see before casting their ballots.  In low-profile races (like Central Committee, where you can’t even get a candidate’s statement in the sample ballot), that little phrase may well be the only piece of information that voters see before casting their ballots.

Adam Probolsky has written about good and bad ballot designations, on (I believe) both Flash Report and old Red County, and he’s spoken about them in the press.  Inspired by his old commentary, I now present to you Orange County’s worst ballot designations (I’ll write about Orange County’s best ballot designations next week).

OC’s Ten Worst Ballot Designations

I would be shocked if any of these people with truly awful ballot designations win (with the possible exception of Lupe Moreno, who might be able to overcome her awful designation with her high name ID):

  1. Student (Roberta J. Reid in the Fullerton Recall, Kathryn Pena in the 73rd District Democratic Central Committee)
    The electorate does not vote for students.  Sorry, life’s unfair, but voters will not vote for a student.  Some of you will point to young candidates who have been elected, but guess what, they didn’t use the “Student” ballot designation.
    My advice to students running for office: pick “Community Volunteer” if you don’t have a job or “Businessman” or “Businesswoman” if you have a job (even a part-time job).
  2. Musician, Artist (Matthew Hakim in the Fullerton Recall)
    What on earth makes a musician or an artist qualified to hold elected office?  People like to listen to music and to look at art, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to vote for musicians or artists.
    My advice to musicians and artists running for office: pick “Businessman” or “Businesswoman”
  3. Homemaker (Patricia Ross in the 72nd District Republican Central Committee)
    While homemakers are absolutely essential to the well-functioning of people’s homes and ultimately, society, people are unwilling to vote for homemakers for elected office.  Sorry, as with students, life is unfair, and voters will not cast their ballots for homemakers.
    My advice to homemakers running for office: pick “Community Volunteer”
  4. Self-Employed Hairdresser (Heidi A. Bressler in the 74th District Democratic Central Committee)
    Why is anyone going to vote for a hairdresser?  Voters aren’t going to go for that.  What special attributes does a hairdresser bring to elected office?
    My advice to self-employed hairdressers running for office: pick “Small Business Owner” or “Businesswoman/Entrepreneur”
  5. Office Specialist (Lupe Moreno in the 69th District Republican Central Committee)
    What is an office specialist?  I think it’s something clerical.  (For the record, this is the County’s description.) If Lupe Moreno wins, it’ll be due to her long-term name ID in spite of her ballot designation.
    My advice to office specialists running for office: “Office Coordinator” or “Analyst” makes you sound more impressive.
  6. Plumbing Contractor (Kevin Richardson in the 73rd District Republican Central Committee)
    Unless you’re Joe the Plumber, I really don’t think voters are going to vote for anyone with “Plumbing” as part of their ballot designation.  People just aren’t big fans of plumbers.  Think of all the stereotypes of plumbers, and they aren’t flattering.
    My advice to plumbing contractors running for office: pick “Small Businessman” or “Business Contractor”
  7. Retail Sales Associate (Joshua Robert Morales in the 68th District Republican Central Committee)
    Why would voters cast their ballots for a retail sales associates?  What makes a retail sales associate uniquely qualified for office?
    My advice to retail sales associates running for office: “Businessman” or “Businesswoman”
  8. Retired Executive Secretary (Heide Krueger in the 74th District Democratic Central Committee)
    Executive secretaries are key players in what happens in an office and control access to the executives.  However, life’s unfair, and many people lack respect for the position and will not vote for one.
    My advice to [retired] executive secretaries running for office: “[Retired] Businesswoman” or “[Retired] Businessman”
  9. Executive Assistant (Erin Shawn in the 73rd District Democratic Central Committee)
    Executive assistants have virtually the same problem as executive secretaries, though there may be some people who make distinctions between the assistants and secretaries.
    My advice to executive assistants running for office: “Businesswoman” or “Businessman”
  10. Retired Recreation Supervisor (Glen Stroud in the 69th District Republican Central Committee)
    What would motivate people to vote for a recreation supervisor?  Stroud’s claims to fame as being a twice-ousted Santa Ana City Commissioner and a grand juror likely does not produce high enough name ID to overpower this bad ballot designation.
    My advice to [retired] recreation supervisors running for office: “[Retired] County Manager” or “[Retired] City Supervisor” (Stroud is the former, FYI); unfortunately, these are not interchangeable as “[Retired] County Supervisor” and “[Retired] City Manager” would be unacceptable due to their wildly different meanings.

(In all cases above from my advice, businessman/businesswoman/businessperson are interchangeable, of course.)

Worst Set of Ballot Designations in One Race: CD-46

  • Escrow Company Owner (Pat Garcia, Republican)
  • Tax Accountant (Jorge Rocha, Republican)
  • United States Representative – 47th District (Loretta Sanchez, Incumbent Democrat)
  • Local Independent Businessman (Jerry Hayden, Republican)
  • Strategy Manager/Accountant (John J. Cullum, Republican)

The old saying, “less is more” applies to all five of these ballot designations.  None of these in and of themselves would make the list of worst ballot designations, but collectively, they are the worst set of any one race.

  • Garcia should have just gone with “Small Business Owner” as his ballot designation.  I can’t imagine there’s a huge voter base of escrow officers.
  • Rocha should have just gone with “Accountant” or “Businessman” because a “Tax Accountant” sounds like some horrible agent of the IRS even though his job is actually helping people battle the IRS.
  • Sanchez should have left her district number off.  She inadvertently makes herself look like a carpetbagger when really her district was simply renumbered.  Fortunately for her, she has very high name ID in her district (high even for an incumbent) and throughout the county, and frankly it’s still by far the best ballot designation in this contest.
  • Hayden slapped on too many adjectives and picked odd wording.  People are more used to “Small Businessman” than “Independent Businessman” in their common vernacular.  Indeed, “Local Independent Businessman” sounds much colder and unfriendly than “Local Small Businessman” as a ballot designation.
  • On Cullum: what exactly is a Strategy Manager anyway?

So those are Orange County’s worst ballot designations.  I’ll write next week about Orange County’s best ballot designations.

(In the interest of full disclosure, I should note my day job is working in the Fullerton office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who served on the Fullerton City Council from 1984-2002.  One of my co-workers in the office is Fullerton City Councilman Bruce Whitaker, who was elected in 2010 and is not a target of the recall.  Since I referenced him at the start of this post, I should also note I have not spoken to Adam Probolsky [nor Chris Norby or Bruce Whitaker, for that matter] about this post, although I hope he would be in agreement with my analysis above.  The opinions expressed in this post are exclusively my own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Chris Norby, Bruce Whitaker, or Adam Probolsky.)

Posted in 46th Congressional District, Fullerton, Orange County, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

Central Committee Races Finalized

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on March 12, 2012

The OC GOP Central Committee races have been finalized.

Here are the candidates that qualified for the ballot (top 6 win in each district):

55th Assembly District

Brett Barbre                  Appointed Incumbent
Jim Domen                   Pastor
Karla Downing             Small Business Owner
Desare Ferraro             Small Business Consultant
Peggy Huang                Deputy Attorney General
Connie Lanzisera         Small Business Owner
Robert Lauten
Brenda McCune           Businesswoman/Childrens Advocate
Tim Shaw                      Mayor, City of La Habra
Dennis R. White          Mechanical Engineer

65th Assembly District

Samuel “Sam” Han      Appointed Incumbent
Steve Hwangbo             Councilman/Businessman/Father
Jerry Jackson                Retired Aerospace Engineer
Sou Moua                       Businessman
Shawn Nelson               Orange County Supervisor
Baron Night                   Incumbent
Greg Sebourn                Businessman/Educator
David John Shawver   Mayor Pro Tem
Pat Shuff                        Incumbent
Henry Charoen             Mayor/Businessman
Alexandria Coronado  Small Business Owner

68th Assembly District

Denis Bilodeau              Mayor Pro Tem
James Brownfield         Business Owner
Mark William Bucher     Incumbent
Steven S. Choi                  Irvine City Councilman
Jon Dumitru                     City Councilman
Marcia Gilchrist               Incumbent
Ray Grangoff                    Incumbent
Jeffrey Lalloway              Irvine Councilmember/Businessman
Joshua Robert Morales  Retail Sales Associate
Walter H. Myers, III       Software Consultant
Noel Stone Parrish          Businesswoman
Deborah Pauly                 Councilwoman, City of Villa Park
Lynn Schott                      Entrepreneur/Educator
Todd Spitzer                     Businessman/Victims Advocate
Scott “Scotty” Voigts       Lake Forest City Councilman
Fred M. Whitaker            City of Orange Councilman/Businessman
Ken L. Williams Jr.         Member, Orange County Board of Education
Nick Wilson                      Small Business Owner

69th Assembly District

Cuong Sinh Cao                            Incumbent
Bryan Carter                                 Software Engineer
Gwen A. Dyrud                             Appointed Incumbent
Brett Elliott Franklin                   Incumbent
Thomas Anthony Gordon           Incumbent
Robert Morris Hammond           Business Owner/Teacher
Charles Hart                                  Appointed Incumbent
Lupe Moreno                                 Office Specialist
Glen Stroud                                    Retired Recreation Supervisor
Timothy “Tim” Ryan Whitacre  Incumbent

72nd Assembly District

John W. Briscoe            Certified Public Accountant
Dennis R. Catron           Small Businessman
Patrick Dooley
Michael E. Gates             Businessman/Attorney
Dean Grose                      Small Business Owner
Matthew Harper             Huntington Beach City Councilman
Brian Hoops                    Special Needs Educator
Diane A. Lenning           Small Business Owner
Kermit Marsh                  Incumbent
Mark McCurdy                Fountain Valley City Councilmember
Steve A. Nagel                 Incumbent
Janet Nguyen                  Orange County Supervisor
Patricia Ross                    Homemaker
Mary Tuong Van Pham  Businesswoman

73rd Assembly District

Alice Anderson                   Incumbent
Nesa Anderson                   Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman
Linda Barnes                      Community Volunteer
Tony Beall                           Incumbent
Evan P. Chafee                   Marketing Sales/Representative
Chandra Chell                     Computer Systems Analyst
Nina R. Davar                     Export Assistant Manager
Norm Dickinson                 Retired Naval Officer
Mark Dobrilovic                 Financial Advisor
John C. Drew                      Author/Speaker/Consultant
Dave Duringer                    Gun Trust Attorney
Jon Steven Fleischman     Small Business Owner
Roy Fussell                          Realtor
Paul Hebbard                      Certified Public Accountant
Michael Kogus                    Business Owner
Steve Magdziak                   Small Business Owner
Mike Munzing                     Incumbent
Nancy Padberg                    Governing Board Member, South Orange Co. Community College District
Kevin Richardson               Plumbing Contractor
Eric Stolaski                         Small Business Owner
Greg Woodard                     Appointed Incumbent
Mary Young                          Incumbent

74th Assembly District

Jon Aiken                                Office Clerk
Allan Bartlett                          Incumbent
Scott Baugh                             Incumbent
John Draper                            Businessman
Bill Dunlap                              General Contractor
Thomas A. “T.J.” Fuentes    Businessman
Don Hansen                            Mayor, City of Huntington Beach
Daniel Marshall                      Attorney
Jeff Mathews                          Business Owner
Vanessa A. Matthews            Small Business Owner
Gary Morse                             Retired Business Owner
Richard “Dick” Palmer         Community Volunteer
Scott “Scotty” Peotter           Businessman/Legislative Analyst
Rhonda Rohrabacher           Small Business Owner
Emily Sanford                        Retired Navy Captain
Christina L. Shea                   Businesswoman
John Warner                          Incumbent

This is simply a list of the candidates that qualified for the ballot along with their ballot designations. After the alphabetical lottery we will make some predictions on who we think will actually win these races.

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2-27-2012 Central Committee (AD 73) Filing Update

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on February 27, 2012

My apologies to those readers that were expecting the rest of the updates for the Central Committee races last week. I got a bit busy and was unable to finish posting about the different races. I promise to have the rest of the updates up and running by the end of this week.

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map to show this district:

This Assembly district is currently represented by Assemblywoman Diane Harkey and represents  the furthest part of South County. With that being said here is the break-down of who has pulled papers:

Dave Duringer– He is a gun trust attorney who I believe is involved in the tea party (not 100% sure on that. He also ran for the Central Committee back in 2010 prior to redistricting when his district was the 71st.

Mary Young– She has been an activist with the Republican Part of Orange County for a very long time. She is also campaigning the hardest of anybody I have ever seen for a Central Committee seat. *Incumbent.

Mike Munzing– He was at one point running against John Campbell for Congress and then wisely decided to run for Aliso Viejo City Council (I think he can win). He is very good at marketing himself from what I have witnessed through his many activities. *Incumbent.

Alice Anderson– She is currently an incumbent in this district and if I remember hearing correctly is also in the hospital. I would encourage those involved in OCGOP politics to seek out a way to sign her nomination papers if you live in this district. *Incumbent.

Norm Dickinson– Many people who I have talked to have said that he is the foremost expert on the bylaws in the Republican Party of Orange County. I cannot see that I disagree from what I have witnessed. *Incumbent.

Steve Magdziak– He is one of the few that has set up a website for his Central Committee race http://www.stevemagdziak.com/ His website does not include much information about his background but if I had to guess I would think he was part of the Ron Paul crowd.

Chandra Chell– She is active in Republican politics through Atlas PAC among other things and she has also been involved in the CRA among other Republican volunteer organizations. *Incumbent.

Linda Barnes– From a bit of research I have learned that she is part of the leadership team with OC912 a conservative group which is tied to the tea party.

Greg Woodard– He recently friended me on Facebook. After having a conversation with him I found that he is involved in a lot of conservative groups including Atlas PAC and Family Action PAC. He was also appointed to a seat on the OC GOP Central Committee making him an incumbent as well. *Incumbent.

Nancy Padberg– She was previously on the Central Committee but was one of the members that was ousted in this past election. As an elected official on the South Orange County Community College District, her name ID will be high.

Tony Beall– He currently is an incumbent on both the Central Committee and on the Rancho Santa Margarita City Council. He also has been a conservative voice on the issues involving the Capistrano Unified School District. *Incumbent.

Kevin Richardson– According to the very little that I could find out about him he is one of the co-founders of SOC912 which I referenced above (OC912).

Nina R. Davar– I am seeing a trend here as when I did a bit of googling I found her name attached to SOC912 as well as other candidates with tea party ties.

John C. Drew– A writer for Examiner.com on Republican Party of Orange County Republican politics. He had a lot of information on his bio including the fact that he is an award-winning political scientist.

Susan A. Bock– I was unable to find any information on her.

Readers help me out by adding info on any candidates that I may have left out and feel free to fill me in on the candidates I found nothing on.

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