OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Posts Tagged ‘Proposition 29’

Prop 29 Recount Rolls into Orange County

Posted by Chris Nguyen on August 29, 2012

Prop 29 went down in defeat in June with 2,592,791 voting against the measure and 2,568,715 voting for the measure (a 50.2%-49.8% margin or 24,076 votes), according to the results certified by the Secretary of State on July 13.

Four days before certification, on July 9, Dr. John Maa (D-San Francisco) filed a request for a partial recount of the results.  Maa is being represented in the recount by attorney Brad Hertz (R-Woodland Hills) of the Sutton Law Firm.  Maa indicated he would spend up to $250,000 to pay for the recount (remember, under California law, anyone requesting a recount must pay for it; a refund will occur only if they succeed in overturning the election results).

On July 16, the partial recount commenced in Los Angeles County.  The recounting continued until August 11, at which point Maa’s recount added 464 “Yes” votes and 246 “No” votes, a net gain of 218 votes for the “Yes” side.

On August 6, the recount commenced in Placer County, but with Steven L. Heilig (G-San Francisco) rather than Ma as the person requesting the recount.  The recounting continued until August 13, at which point Heilig’s recount subtracted 10 “Yes” votes and 18 “No” votes, a net gain of 8 votes for the “Yes” side.

The recount is now rolling into Orange County, with the Registrar of Voters announcing the recount will commence on Wednesday, September 5.

Although the No on 29 side is gaining votes in the recount, it seems unlikely that they’ll achieve enough to overturn 24,076 considering they’ve only netted 226 votes so far.

If Maa sounds familiar, he was in a “Yes on 29” commercial:

Since we’re showing Prop 29 commercials, click here to see Orange County’s own Dr. Ken Williams (R-Villa Park) in a No on 29 commercial.

Posted in California, Orange County | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Breaking News: AP Says Prop 29 Failed

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 22, 2012

Weeks after the election, the Associated Press has confirmed that Prop 29 has been defeated in a narrow race.

The Secretary of State’s unofficial count shows Prop 29 failed by less than 2 votes per precinct.

Posted in California | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Two Polls: Prop. 29 Lead Drops to Single Digits

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 3, 2012

The latest poll from Survey USA, released on Thursday, shows Proposition 29 (tobacco tax) leading by 42%-38% margin, with 20% undecided.  The poll measured likely voters from May 27-29.

The latest Field Poll, also released on Thursday, shows Prop 29 leading by a 50%-42% margin, with 8% undecided.  The poll measured likely voters from May 21-29.

Here’s a comparison of polling on Proposition 29 (tobacco tax) over time:

Dates Poll Yes No Spread
5/27-5/29 SurveyUSA 42% 38% Yes +4%
5/21-5/29 Field 50% 42% Yes +8%
5/17-5/21 USC/LAT 62% 33% Yes +29%
5/14-5/20 PPIC 53% 42% Yes +11%
3/14-3/19 USC/LAT 68% 29% Yes +39%
2/21-2/28 PPIC 67% 30% Yes +37%

Compensating for variation in polls, note that the PPIC poll found Prop 29 declined from a 37% lead to an 11% lead while the USC/LA Times poll found Prop 29 declined from a 39% lead to a 29% lead.

The trend is clear.  A supermajority of Californians supported Prop 29 before the campaigns started, but once the campaign came underway, the No on 29 campaign outspent Yes on 29 by a 4-1 margin, allowing the Anti-Prop 29 message to make enormous inroads, cutting the Pro-Prop 29 into a single digit lead, but will the ad blitz be enough to push Prop 29 to defeat?  The anti-Prop 29 side’s biggest enemy may be time: absentee voters cast their ballots while Prop 29 was leading, and the polling trend seems to point to poll voters splitting evenly or narrowly opposing Prop 29, leaving absentee voters to save the day for Prop 29, which may narrowly pass.

Newspaper endorsements have been unexpectedly evenly split in California, with 14 major papers endorsing Prop 29 and 14 major papers opposing Prop 29.  Surprisingly, both of OC’s major papers: the OC Register and the LA Times both oppose Prop 29.  How often do those two papers’ editorial boards agree?

SurveyUSA found that the following subgroups support Prop 29:

  • Men (44%-42%)
  • Women (39%-35%)
  • People Ages 18-34 (54%-30%)
  • People Over 65 (44%-38%)
  • Hispanics (42%-37%)
  • Asians (50%-25%)
  • Cell Phone Users Without Land Lines (60%-24%)
  • People Who Have Already Voted (52%-45%)
  • People Who Have Not Yet Voted (38%-36%)
  • Democrats (48%-27%)
  • Independents [NPP/DTS] (51%-37%)
  • People Outside the TEA Party (43%-36%)
  • Moderates (43%-38%)
  • Liberals (55%-22%)
  • Very Liberal People (69%-16%)
  • College-Educated People (48%-33%)
  • Non-Evangelicals (46%-35%)
  • Pro-Choice People (46%-35%)
  • People Who Make Less than $40,000 Per Year (37%-35%)
  • People Who Make More than $80,000 Per Year (46%-39%)
  • Residents of the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area (37%-36%)
  • Residents of the Bay Area/Northern Coast of California (55%-27%)

SurveyUSA found that the following subgroups oppose Prop 29:

  • People Ages 35-49 (40%-36%)
  • People Ages 50-64 (43%-35%)
  • White People (43%-40%)
  • Black People (38%-36%)
  • People Who Have Landline Telephones [including those who have both cell phones and landlines] (42%-37%)
  • Republicans (56%-28%)
  • TEA Party Members (60%-33%)
  • Very Conservative People (63%-25%)
  • Conservatives (53%-26%)
  • High School-Educated People (41%-36%)
  • People With Some College Education But No Bachelor’s Degree (46%-33%)
  • Evangelical Christians (48%-30%)
  • Pro-Life People (46%-35%)
  • People Who Make $40,000-$80,000 Per Year (41%-39%)
  • Central Valley Residents (48%-37%)
  • Inland Empire Residents (43%-40%)

The Field Poll found that the following subgroups support Prop 29:

  • Democrats (61%-32%)
  • No party preference/third party (61%-32%)
  • Moderates (52%-39%)
  • Liberals (72%-24%)
  • LA County Residents (49%-40%)
  • San Francisco Bay Area Residents (68%-27%)
  • Northern Californians from Outside the Bay Area (54%-38%)
  • Women (55%-37%)
  • People Aged 18-39 (66%-24%)
  • People Aged 40-64 (49%-42%)
  • People Who Have Never Smoked (55%-36%)
  • Poll Voters (48%-43%)
  • Absentee Voters (51%-41%)

The Field Poll found that the following subgroups oppose Prop 29:

  • Republicans (58%-32%)
  • Conservatives (57%-32%)
  • Southern Californians from Outside LA County (54%-36%)
  • Men (48%-44%)
  • People Over the Age of 65 (51%-42%)
  • Current Smokers (75%-17%)
  • Former Smokers (47%-46%)

PPIC found that the following subgroups support Prop 29:

  • Democrats (66%-29%)
  • Independents (61%-37%)
  • Liberals (64%-30%)
  • Moderates (60%-36%)
  • People Aged 18-34 (76%-24%)
  • People Aged 35-54 (53%-42%)

PPIC found that the following subgroups oppose Prop 29:

  • Republicans (59%-37%)
  • Conservatives (56%-40%)
  • People Over the Age of 55 (48%-45%)

Posted in California | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Atlas PAC May 2012 Newsletter & Voter Guide

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 18, 2012

This came over the wire from Atlas PAC on Wednesday (and was re-sent to us by a helpful reader yesterday)…

Atlas PAC Newsletter & Voter Guide   May 16, 2012 
In This Issue
Calendar of Events
Candidate Forum Photos
Stop the Special Interest Money Now Event
June Primary Voter Guide
Atlas PAC Director Featured on Rick Reiff’s Show

Calendar of Events

Stop the Special Interest Money Now Reception

May 23, 2012

Irvine, CA

Del Mar Day at the Races

July 28, 2012

San Diego, CA

The Atlas PAC Board
Lee M. Lowrey
ChairmanChandra Chell
Vice ChairmanDave BartelsJohn Draper

Mary DreyerKurt English
Kathryn FeatherJoe Ludlow

Jeff Mathews

Walter Myers III

Ben Pugh

Stephanie Olsen

Sarah Soss

Mike Tripp

Candidate ForumCandidate Forum 98aCandidate Forum 46aCandidate Forum 45a

Candidate Forum 30a

Candidate Forum 48a

Candidate Forum 103a

Candidate Forum 70a

Candidate Forum 94

Candidate Forum 68a

Like us on Facebook

 Dear,

With the June Primary Election just around the corner, Atlas PAC has updated our list of endorsed candidates for local, state and national elected office.  As always, we will continue to present to our membership candidates that practice our core values of limited government, free market, low taxation, and individual liberty.
Join us this month as we host a fundraising reception for the Stop the Special Interest Money Now Initiative featuring columnist Steve Greenhut and Chapman Law School Professor John Eastman.    Please mark your calendar for our upcoming events and we hope to see you soon.

Atlas PAC Mission Statement

The Atlas PAC mission is to create an environment of business professionals that believe in the ideals of limited government, free market enterprise, low taxation, and individual liberty to associate, network, and socialize with like-minded individuals. Through this association, the Atlas PAC supports like-minded candidates and issues through its monetary and political support.

StopSpecialInterest v4A

June Primary Voter Guide
National Ted Cruz – U.S. Senate, TXJeff Flake – U.S. Senate, AZ

George Allen – U.S. Senate, VA

Josh Mandell – U.S. Senate, OH

Richard Mourdock – U.S. Senate, IN

Jason Chaffetz – US Congress, UT

Eric Cantor – US Congress, VA

Paul Ryan – US Congress, WI

Allen West – US Congress, FL

Michele Bachmann – US Congress, MN

California

 

Tom McClintock – U.S. Congress District 4

Tony Strickland – U.S. Congress District 26

Ed Royce – U.S. Congress District 39

John Webb – US Congress District 45

Jerry Hayden – US Congress District 46

Gary DeLong – US Congress District 47

Dana Rohrabacher – US Congress District 48

Darrell Issa – US Congress District 49

Duncan Hunter, Jr. – US Congress District 50

Bill Emerson – State Senate District 23

Bob Huff – State Senate District 29

Jeff Miller – State Senate District 31

Mimi Walters – State Senate District 37

Tim Donnelly – State Assembly District 33

Mike Morrell – State Assembly District 40

Curt Hagman – State Assembly District 55

Eric Linder – State Assembly District 60

Joe Ludwig – State Assembly District 61

Chris Norby – State Assembly District 65

Craig Huey – State Assembly District 66

Phil Paule – State Assembly District 67

Don Wagner – State Assembly District 68

Diane Harkey – State Assembly District 73

Allan Mansoor – State Assembly District 74

Rocky Chavez – State Assembly District 76

Carl DeMaio – San Diego Mayor

Proposition 28 – No

Proposition 29 – No

Orange County   

Janet Nguyen – OC Supervisor, District 1

Robert Hammond– Orange County Board of Education, Area 1
Ken Williams– Orange County Board of Education, Area 3
Greg Sebourn – Fullerton City Council

Ethan Temianka – Mesa Water District

Orange County Republican Party Central Committee

55th AD – Tim Shaw, Jim Domen, Desare Ferraro

65th AD – Baron Night, Shawn Nelson, Greg Sebourn, Steve Hwangbo, Henry Charoen, Pat Shuff

68th AD – Jon Dumitru, Ken Williams, Lynn Schott, Walter Myers III, Mark Bucher, Denis Bilodeau

69th AD – Thomas Gordon, Charles Hart, Robert Hammond, Lupe Moreno, Cuong Sinh Cao

72nd AD – Janet Nguyen, Dean Grose, Matthew Harper, Mark McCurdy, Dennis Catron, John Briscoe

73rd AD – Chandra Chell, Mike Munzing, Mary Young, Tony Beall, Linda Barnes, Greg Woodard, Jon Fleischman

74th AD – Pick among the following:  John Draper, Jeff Mathews, Allan Bartlett, John Warner, Bill Dunlap, Scott Baugh, Scott Peotter, Rhonda Rohrabacher, Emily Sanford, Christina Shea, Don Hansen, T.J. Fuentes

Atlas PAC Director Featured on Rick Reiff’s SoCal Insider Show
Walter Myers III Participates in Occupy Vs. Tea Party Debate
walter - rick reiff show
Click to watch video
Atlas PAC Director Walter Myers III debates with an Occupy Los Angeles activist.  Watch as they discuss what their protest movements represent as well as their respective sides’ take on taxes, government, and capitalism.  Decide for yourself who the clear winner is for this debate.
About Atlas PAC

Atlas is a politically based membership organization made up of business, political, and community professionals who share a passion for free enterprise, limited government, reduced government regulatory burdens, low taxation, and individual liberty. Atlas furthers its ideals by funding candidates and causes who aggressively advocate the values of Atlas.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Fullerton, Mesa Consolidated Water District, Orange County Board of Education, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »