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Posts Tagged ‘Leslie Daigle’

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OCBC Issues Correction & Apology to Mansoor

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on April 5, 2012

In an embarrassing press release, OCBC had to admit that their score for Assemblyman Allan Mansoor was miscalculated.  There have been many grumblings about the misalignment of the OCBC scorecard with those of other business groups, and now just outright getting Mansoor’s score wrong lands another blow to the credibility of the OCBC scorecard.  Here’s their full press release that came over the wire yesterday:

OCBC Sets the Record Straight on Mansoor

IRVINE, CA — Orange County Business Council (OCBC) has issued a correction of its Legislative Scorecard, originally produced and distributed last October, 2011.  A transposition of one vote caused the score for Assembly member Alan Mansoor to be miscalculated at a lower rate than it should have been. His correct score is 72% pro-business legislative votes aligned with OCBC’s policy positions.

OCBC takes position and advocates on behalf of dozens of state bills throughout the legislative session. In 2011, OCBC identified 30 bills to track the votes of the OC legislative delegation. The list of these bills was provided to legislative members in May 2011.  The adjusted calculation of the legislator’s “score” is based on the number of times a legislator voted with OCBC, divided by the total number of times a legislator was present for a vote.

The mistaken score has been posted on the OCBC website since last October.  The information was recently used by Assembly candidate Leslie Daigle in campaign material, which is when the error was discovered.  The error in information lies entirely with OCBC  Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , | 1 Comment »

Daigle: Mansoor’s Liberal Accusations Pathetic

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on March 31, 2012

This press release came across the wire from the Leslie Daigle for Assembly campaign. It appears that the gloves are off in the AD 74 race:

Leslie Daigle for State Assembly

From the Desk of Leslie Daigle

Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

AD-74: Mansoor Roars on Fundraising, Rush Loans Campaign $100K, Daigle Only Adds $17K

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 26, 2012

Allan Mansoor, Leslie Daigle, Robert Rush

Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R-Costa Mesa), Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R-Newport Beach), and Businessman Robert Rush (D-Newport Beach)

Long accused of being a poor fundraiser, Republican Assemblyman Allan Mansoor‘s campaign finance reports show the donors are beginning to rally around Mansoor.

During the January 1-March 17 fundraising period, Mansoor raised $61,135 in contributions and dropped another $30,000 into his campaign warchest, growing it by $91,135.  During the same period, Republican Newport Beach City Councilwoman Leslie Daigle raised $17,577 in contributions.

Surprisingly, Democrat Robert Rush loaned his campaign $99,999.  He received three contributions during this time, all of which were at the maximum legal limit of $3,900.  The three were from The Bascom Group in Irvine and two of the principals from that same business.

Mansoor spent $32,477, Daigle spent $29,324, and Rush spent $7,661.

Mansoor now has $115,371 cash on hand, Daigle has $107,956 cash on hand, and Rush has $104,038 cash on hand.  The money race is too close for Daigle; she needs to have a dominating cash lead to even have hope of making it to November.

There’s no way to quantify this, as it’s more art than science, but ultimately, Mansoor does not even need to outspend Daigle.  The “California Assemblyman” ballot designation is worth probably $200,000 in a primary.  Daigle will need to outspend Mansoor roughly 2-to-1 to unseat him, and I just don’t see that happening.  Similarly, Rush does not need to outspend Daigle.  The word “Democrat” after Rush’s name is worth probably $200,000 in the AD-74 primary.  Having the word “Republican” is worth probably $300,000 in AD-74, but that’s split between Mansoor and Daigle.  Therefore, being a Republican California Assemblyman on the ballot is worth $350,000 for Mansoor, being identified on the ballot as a Republican is worth $150,000 for Daigle, and being identified on the ballot as a Democrat is worth $200,000 for Rush.  Furthermore, Mansoor has no problem on his right flank, and Rush has no problem on his left flank, so they can both come after Daigle’s voters in the center.

Daigle will need to spend a fortune to form a coalition of anti-incumbent Republicans, Democrats willing to vote for a Republican, and independents who are both anti-incumbent and anti-Democrat.  There’s a certain bloc of voters who will automatically vote for Mansoor because he has “California Assemblyman” as his ballot designation, and there’s a certain bloc of voters who will automatically vote for Rush because he has “Democrat” as his party affiliation, but Daigle has no natural bloc of automatic voters.  She will have to outspend both Mansoor and Rush to pull together enough votes to reach second place to get to November.

42% of AD-74 voters are registered Republicans, 29% are registered Democrats, 24% are registered as No Party Preference, and 5% are registed as members of third parties.  If Daigle grabs 30% of Republicans from Mansoor and 25% of Democrats from Rush (remember, she does have the word “Republican” after her name on the ballot even if she is to the left of Mansoor), that gives her 20% of the vote, Mansoor 29% of the vote, and Rush 22% of the vote.  That leaves the 29% of the vote from independent and minor party voters.  Say she gets 36% of those people and Mansoor and Rush each get 32%.  That brings Daigle up to 30%, Mansoor to 37%, and Rush 31%.  She would still fail to make it to November.

However, her problem is compounded because independent voters, moderate Republicans, and moderate Democrats are less likely to vote in primaries, so you get the hard core partisans in primaries.  That means loyal Mansoor Republicans and loyal Rush Democrats will be disproportionately high.   This is why to advance to November, Daigle must substantially outspend both Mansoor and Rush, who will only need to spend enough money to reinforce their bases.  I suspect Mansoor captures half the vote, Rush will end up in the high 20s, and Daigle in the low 20s.

Barring a six-figure infusion of cash over the next two months (along with a complete failure of her opponents to fundraise), Daigle is caught between a Rush rock and a Mansoor hard place.

Posted in 74th Assembly District, Fundraising | Tagged: , , | 3 Comments »

Live from the OC CRA Convention…

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 24, 2012

We’ll be live-blogging (for updates, refresh this post) from the OC CRA endorsing convention at the Turtle Rock Community Center in Irvine…

Format will be 3 minutes from the candidate and 3 minutes of Q&A for each race.

Mike Munzing (South OC) and Baron Night (Buena Park) appointed sergeants-at-arms. Host Jeff Lalloway (Greater Irvine) appointed parliamentarian.

Races will be voted in the order of Federal, State, and County, with slight adjustments allowed to accommodate candidate schedules.

Republican incumbents with no Republican opponent will be done by voice vote. All other races will be done by secret ballot.

Endorsements require a 2/3 vote.

In a three-candidate race, the candidate with the least votes is dropped in the first round. The remaining two candidates will contest the second and third rounds. In a two-candidate race, both candidates remain for all three rounds.

No race will go beyond three rounds, unless there are five or more Republican candidates (there are no races that have five or more candidates being considered today).

79 of an eligible 114 delegates are present representing 19 units.

First race up: AD-74
Assemblyman Allan Mansoor is here; Leslie Daigle is not. Both were invited.

Mansoor ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: CD-47
Steve Kuykendall is here; Gary DeLong is not. Both were invited. No one discussed the two minor Republican candidates.

In response to a Baron Night question, Kuykendall said he would have opposed TARP.

In response to a shouted question from a member of a CRA unit that is not eligible to vote in CD-47, Kuykendall said he is pro-choice.

Secret ballot will be used in CD-47. Westminster, Garden Grove, Stanton, and Buena Park RAs are voting.

No one reached 2/3 in round one: 5 Kuykendall, 3 DeLong, 7 no endorsement, and 1 other.

No one reached 2/3 in round two: exact totals not announced.

No one reached 2/3 in round three: exact totals not announced.

NO ENDORSEMENT in CD-47.

Next up: OCBE 3
Incumbent Ken Williams is here.

Williams is ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up will be the first real fireworks: 3rd Supervisorial District

Todd Spitzer will speak first; Deborah Pauly elected to speak second.

Spitzer points to his legislative record, his ability to not insult or divide people, his longtime status as a member of his CRA unit in Orange-Villa Park, his vast Republican endorsement list; his HJTA record; he says of his 3% at 50 vote: “That vote was a mistake.”

In response to a question from Ray Grangoff, Spitzer opposes pension spiking and says local employees should be forced to pay the employee contribution to the pension. (State public employees pay the employee contribution while taxpayers pay the employer contribution. Taxpayers pay both the employer and employee contribution for local public employees.)

In response to a question by Chris Emami, Spitzer opposes the Moorlach term limit extension.

Pauly speaks of her role in creating the Orange-Villa Park CRA unit. She speaks of her role in Prop 8. She speaks of good and evil. She has visited many CRA units. She says she is the true conservative.

In response to a question by Chris Emami, Pauly opposes the Moorlach term limit extension and notes her opposition to the Villa Park term limit extension.

In response to a question by Ken Williams, who expressed concerns about statesmanship, personal attacks, and offensiveness, Pauly argues only those who oppose her principles should be offended. She notes Spitzer’s 3% at 50 vote (though she doesn’t say his name).

In response to a question from Jeff Lalloway, who expressed concerns that Pauly’s Council colleagues all endorsed Spitzer, Pauly says she has “been very difficult to work with” because she opposed a 5% pay raise for city employees; she opposed spending taxes on a mural; she takes issues to the people when the council fails because “they don’t like it that they are called upon the carpet by a woman.”

Secret ballot on this one.

Irvine, Tustin, Orange-Villa Park (including yours truly), and Anaheim RAs are voting.

No endorsement in first round, as 15 votes were needed: 14 Spitzer, 6 Pauly, 2 no endorsement.

Pauly says there is no hope for conservatives if CRA doesn’t vote for her.

Spitzer says he is a pro-life Christian who is offended at being accused of not being a social conservative. He says Pauly threatened the CRA. He went over time by noting Pauly’s non-endorsement by Villa Park City Council.

Second round voting.

Spitzer ENDORSED by ballot.
18 Spitzer, 3 Pauly, and 1 no endorsement.

Next up: CD-48

Congressman Dana Rohrabacher is not present due to scheduling conflict.

Fountain Valley CRA unit member objects to Rohrabacher supporting allowing physician-assisted suicide.

Dana Rohrabacher ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: AD-55

Assemblyman Curt Hagman ENDORSED by voice vote with no discussion.

Next up: CD-46
Jorge Rocha speaks first. He talks about Loretta Sanchez’s long-term incumbency, education issues, and jobs.

Jerry Hayden speaks second. He talks about his birth in CD-46 and living in every city in CD-46. He speaks of his job as a financial advisor and his family. He speaks of jobs, energy, education, and religious freedoms. He wants to repeal the Obama healthcare plan, build the Keystone pipeline, and expand domestic oil production. He notes his endorsement by the CA Republican Party and the Family Action PAC.

Pat Garcia is the third and final speaker in CD-46. He speaks of the Huntington Beach escrow company that he and his wife own. He reads his notes about limited government and personal freedom. He loses his place at one point.

In a question from an Anaheim RA member, Garcia supports decriminalization of drug use.

In a question from a Corona Del Mar RA member, Garcia supports abolishing the Fed.

In a question from Lucille Kring of Anaheim RA, Garcia is pro-life.

Secret ballot on this one.

Santa Ana, Garden Grove, Anaheim, and Orange-Villa Park are voting.

Hayden ENDORSED with 11 of 12 ballots cast.

Next up: OCBE 1

Robert Hammond speaks of Prop 13. He’s been in education for years. He taught to Navajos and Apaches. He’s taught in public schools, private schools, and home schools. He served as a Marine. He opposes tax increases.

Hammond ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: CD-45

Challenger John Webb is here. Congressman John Campbell declined the invitation.

Webb speaks of his military and business background. He speaks of Campbell’s votes on TARP, Cash for Clunkers, Sarbanes-Oxley expansion, Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, and the STOCK Act. Webb pledges to serve only three terms.

In response to a Corona Del Mar RA delegate’s question, Webb states he is pro-life.

Secret ballot on this one.

In the first round, there’s a tie: 14 votes each for John Campbell and John Webb. There were 2 abstentions.

Webb speaks of OC being the “conservative capital” and of jobs.

In the second round (20 votes required for endorsement):
15 for John Campbell, 14 for John Webb, and 1 abstention.

Webb speaks of Campbell’s statements that he knew what the people didn’t. Webb claims there’s 4 Ed Royces becuase Royce is all over Orange County. Webb says Campbell rarely shows up.

In the final round (19 votes required for endorsement):
14 for John Webb, 13 for John Campbell, and 1 abstention.

NO ENDORSEMENT in CD-45.

Next up: CD-49
Congressman Darrell Issa is the only Republican running but is not present.

North San Diego, Saddleback, and South OC RA are eligible to vote but North San Diego is not present.

Issa is ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: CD-39
Congressman Ed Royce sent two representatives (Zonya Townsend and Steve Sarkis) due to a scheduling conflict involving constituent town halls. Royce is the sole Republican in the race.

Royce is ENDORSED by voice vote.

Royce arrives during the AD-72 voting but was already endorsed.

Royce is asked to speak anyway. He speaks of his efforts for Ronald Reagan over Gerald Ford in 1976. He speaks of Reagan’s battle against Communism. Royce credits CRA for giving Reagan his political start. He speaks of Reagan’s success in the (according to the Wall Street Journal) “Orange Countization of the United States.” He wants to keep Nancy Pelosi out of the Speakership, wants to oust Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leadership, and wants to see Marco Rubio as Vice President.

Next up (expect fireworks): AD-72

Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham is first to speak. He attacks Ed Royce for trying to whip the vote in AD-72 for Troy Edgar. Pham notes he’s a long-time member of the CRA and is the only AD-72 candidate who has never been a Democrat nor given money to Democrats. Pham also says he’s not beholden to Mike Schroeder, Scott Baugh, and Ed Royce. Pham also notes the influence of the Vietnamese vote.

Matt Harper asks about Prop 13, the no new taxes pledge, and his voting record on taxes. Pham says he has not received the pledge but will sign it. He supports keeping the 2/3 vote. He says he will vote against taxes.

In response to a question from a delegate, there was a lot of confusion over Stop Special Interest Money Now. it sounds like he supports the measure.

Troy Edgar speaks next. He notes he’s a US Navy veteran, business owner, and Mayor of Los Alamitos. He speaks of his business career. He speaks of his first political involvement in 2006 when he ran (successfully) for City Council.

Matt Harper asks about Edgar’s endorsements. Ed Royce, Dana Rohrabacher, Jim Silva, Tom Harman, 14 Assembly Members, most mayors and councilmembers (including Harper) endorsed Edgar.

In response to a Fountain Valley RA delegate question, Edgar admits he was a Democrat until 2006. He blames his Inland Empire union-member father. Edgar says he voted for Reagan and has never given money to a Democrat.

In response to a question, he states he is in favor of Stop Special Interest Money and the death penalty. He states he is pro-life.

Travis Allen did not send a representative.

Secret ballot on this one.

The vote was invalidated because 17 people voted despite there being only 16 eligible delegates.

Good catch by ballot counters John W. Briscoe and Jay Petersen.

First round vote (requires 12 votes for endorsement):
9 Pham, 7 Edgar, and 1 for Allen.

A 5-minute caucus was approved for AD-72 after the first-round vote was announced.

Edgar states he’s never given money to a Democrat and states he is a dedicated Republican.

Pham blames the “special interest” of Ed Royce for getting Edgar out of the CD-47 race and into the AD-72 race. He says, “CRA should not be a rubber stamp for a Congressman.”

Second-round vote (Allen is dropped for having the fewest votes):
12 for Edgar, 3 for Pham, and 2 abstentions.

Edgar ENDORSED after two rounds.

Next up: AD-65

I represented Chris Norby, noting his record on abolishing redevelopment agencies (applause line) and the fact that his sole opponent is a Democrat.

Norby ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: SD-29

Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff sent no representative but is the sole Republican running.

Huff ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: 1st Supervisorial District

Supervisor Janet Nguyen sent Steve Sarkis as his representative due to an all-day district event.

Nguyen ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: Judicial Race and Central Committee

Baron Night moves and Dennis Catron seconds to authorize the council of CRA unit presidents to endorse in the judicial race and the Central Committee races.

Dale Tyler made a motion to require Central Committee endorsements be made by the CRA units in regional caucuses themselves rather than the presidents’ council. Karl Heft notes Tyler’s motion violates the CRA statewide by-laws.

The Night motion passes by VOICE VOTE.

Next up: SD-37

Senator Mimi Walters thanks CRA for its support in all her previous legislative races. She notes she is one of the most conservative State Senators in the state. She says she was “drawn out of my district,” and “I live, or rather, lived, in Laguna Niguel, and I now live in Irvine.” She fought to successfully qualify the referendum to overturn the Senate districts.

Walters ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: AD-68

Assemblyman Don Wagner notes that the pundits thought he’d lose in the 2010 primary and how they were wrong. Wagner notes he’s the sole Republican in the race and regarding his Democratic opponent: “I have pictures of her. (Pause for audience reaction.) Pictures of her with the likes of Dennis Kucinich and Maxine Waters.”

Wagner ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: Speech by Steven Choi

While waiting for Diane Harkey to arrive, CRA asks Irvine Councilman Steven Choi to give a speech.

Steven Choi speaks about his efforts to make Irvine a better place. He speaks of his family and his conservative record. He notes he’s the sole Republican in the race for Mayor of Irvine.

Since the election is in November and only involves one city, the Greater Irvine RA will vote later this year on endorsing Choi.

Next up: AD-73

Assemblywoman Diane Harkey speaks of spending her own money to be in DC this past week lobbying Congress against high-speed rail. She notes her voting record and endorsements from conservative organizations.

Harkey ENDORSED by voice vote.

END: With shocking efficiency, the convention ended at 1:04, just four minutes late.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Irvine, Orange County, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

California Republican Party’s Endorsements for OC: Royce, Campbell, Hayden, DeLong, Rohrabacher, Issa, Huff, Walters, Hagman, Norby, Wagner, Harkey, Mansoor

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 20, 2012

The California Republican Party has endorsed in most races for Congress, the State Senate, and the State Assembly.  Emami blogged about the CRP endorsement of Elizabeth Emken for the US Senate while I indirectly linked to the list of endorsements in this post (via CapitolAlert).

However, we never really discussed the state Republican Party endorsements here on OC Political, so here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s US Congressional delegation:

  • CD-39: Congressman Ed Royce (R-Fullerton) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
  • CD-45: Congressman John Campbell (R-Irvine) was endorsed over Small Business Owner John Webb.
    While the CRP endorsed Campbell, the OCGOP did not.
    I covered the OCGOP endorsement drama in this race here, and Emami covered it here.
  • CD-47: Long Beach Councilman Gary DeLong was endorsed over former Congressman Steve Kuykendall, an OC man named Steve Foley, and Small Business Owner Sanford Kahn.
    The Democrats running for this open seat are State Senator Alan Lowenthal, College Professor Peter Mathews, and inexplicably, a married couple are both running: Dr. Jay Shah and Charity President Usha Shah.  I’d pay to go to the Shah family dinner the night before the election.  It must be awkward to be one of the Shahs’ two adult sons; hope they live outside CD-47.
    As a legitimate swing district with no incumbent, this is one of the most interesting races involving Orange County.
  • CD-48: Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
  • CD-49: Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Vista) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.

Here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s State Senate delegation (in both cases, they’re the sole Republican running; I covered both those races here):

Here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s State Assembly delegation:

  • AD-55: Assemblyman Curt Hagman (R-Chino Hills) was endorsed is the sole Republican running.
  • AD-65: Assemblyman Chris Norby (R-Fullerton) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
    Emami covered this race here.
  • AD-68: Assemblyman Don Wagner (R-Irvine) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
    I did an article on his opponent, Christina Avalos (D-Orange), here.  Emami covered her here.
  • AD-69: No endorsement was made.  OC Eligibility Technician Jose Moreno is the sole Republican running.  I sort of covered him here.
  • AD-72: No endorsement was made.
    Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar, OC Board of Education Trustee Long Pham, and Businessman Travis Allen are the three Republicans running for this open seat.
    Click here to see our various articles related to AD-72.
  • AD-73: Assemblywoman Diane Harkey (R-Dana Point) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.

For the full list of all Congressional, State Senate, and State Assembly endorsements by the California Republican Party, click here.

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working in the office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who was endorsed in AD-65.)

Posted in 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Newport Beach Mayors Endorse Leslie Daigle For Assembly

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on March 16, 2012

This also came across the wore from the Leslie Daigle for Assembly campaign:


Newport Beach Mayors Endorse Leslie Daigle for Assembly 

City leaders cite need for change in Sacramento 

Newport Beach – Several former Newport Beach Mayors announced their endorsement of Leslie Daigle for State Assembly today. Daigle’s independence and willingness to challenge the status quo is gaining traction among leaders throughout out the District highlighted by today’s announcement. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Leslie Daigle Earns Support From Numerous Top Education Officials

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on March 16, 2012

This just came across the wire from the Leslie Daigle for Assemby campaign:

Leslie Daigle Earns Support FromNumerous

Top Education Officials

Mansoor Lacks Single Education Endorsement

Newport Beach – Education leaders in the Newport Mesa Unified School District, which over sees educaiton in both Newport Beach and Costa Mesa, have come out in overwhelming support of Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle’s candidacy for the 74th Assembly District. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Feeling Lucky! Newest California Lottery Winners: Webb, Garcia, Varaseth, Walters, Norby, Avalos, Daly, Allen, Harkey, Daigle, Nguyen, Spitzer, Downing, Night, Dumitru, Dyrud, Nagel, Anderson, Aiken

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 16, 2012

LotteryYesterday afternoon, the newest winners of the California lottery were announced: Businessman John Webb, Businessman Pat Garcia, Businessman Ron Varaseth, Senator Mimi Walters, Assemblyman Chris Norby, Perennial candidate Christina Avalos, Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly, Businessman Travis Allen, Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, Supervisor Janet Nguyen, former Supervisor/Assemblyman Todd Spitzer, Businesswoman Karla Downing, Central Committee Member Baron Night, Orange Councilman Jon Dumitru, Central Committee Member Gwen Dyrud, Central Committee Member Steve Nagel, San Clemente Planning Commissioner Nesa Anderson, and Office Clerk Jon Aiken.

No, these 19 people are not splitting a $200,000,000 jackpot.  They won the Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery.

What’s the candidate order lottery, you ask?

Well, California law requires a lottery to determine the order of candidates on the ballot.  Why does this law exist?  Studies of the primacy effect showed the candidate at the top of the ballot gains as much as a 5% increase in votes.  Consequently, in 1975, California legislators adopted a law mandating an end to the alphabetical listing of candidates (likely to the chagrin of Sam Aanestad and Dick Ackerman but the joy of Mary Young and Ed Zschau) and requiring a lottery before each election.

The Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery has determined the alphabet for the June primary to be UNADIVXWQGOZLTRKSJHMCBFPYE.

This applies to most races on the ballot, excluding races that cross county lines (for OC, these would be CD-38, CD-39, CD-47, CD-49, SD-29, and AD-55).

The primacy effect is weaker when there are fewer candidates on the ballot, and when there are higher-profile campaigns.  Being at the top of the ballot is most valuable for low-profile campaigns with large numbers of candidates.  That means that of the 19 people I listed above, the biggest winners in this lottery are the Central Committee candidates, so the biggest congratulations goes to the following Republican Central Committee Candidates for their 5% vote bonus:

  • 55th District: Karla Downing, Small Business Owner (1st of 10 candidates)
  • 65th District: Baron Night, Incumbent (1st of 11 candidates)
  • 68th District: Jon Dumitru, City Councilman (1st of 18 candidates)
  • 69th District: Gwen A. Dyrud, Appointed Incumbent (1st of 10 candidates)
  • 72nd District: Steve A. Nagel, Incumbent (1st of 14 candidates)
  • 73rd District: Nesa Anderson, Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman (1st of a stunning 22 candidates)
  • 74th District: Jon Aiken, Office Clerk (1st of 16 candidates)

For the races that cross county lines, each county does its own lottery, so here are the OC Registrar’s lottery results: DMNESVTUHKWGXFCIQYAORZPLJB.

Congratulations to these candidates who won the Registrar’s lottery and will appear at the top of the ballot in the Orange County portions of their districts:

  • 38th Congressional District: Linda Sanchez (D), United States Representative (1st of 3)
  • 39th Congressional District: D’Marie Mulattieri (DCorrection: NPP), Community Volunteer (1st of 3)
  • 47th Congressional District: Gary DeLong (R), Local Small Businessman (1st of 8)
  • 49th Congressional District: Albin Novinec (NPP), United States Marine (1st of 4)
  • 29th Senate District: Greg Diamond (D), Workers’ Rights Attorney (1st of 2)
  • 55th Assembly District: Curt Hagman (R), Member of the State Assembly (1st of 2)

You would think that with electronic voting now, the names could be randomized for every poll voter (obviously, we’d still need the lottery for absentee voters).

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working for Assemblyman Chris Norby, one of the lottery winners, as the letter N came in second in the alphabet behind U, though no one with a last name starting with U is running in all of Orange County.)

Posted in 29th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

OC Republicans Shoot Selves in Foot; OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario Evaporates

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 16, 2012

In a pre-Prop 14 world, it made absolute good sense to contest every single partisan race.  Each qualified party was guaranteed exactly one candidate on the November ballot.

Prop 14 changed all that.  The top two candidates, regardless of party and regardless of whether anyone breaks 50%, advance to the November ballot.  If the top two candidates were members of the same party, presumably the more moderate candidate would win.  If there were two Democrats, the less liberal one would win thanks to Republican voters.  If there were two Republicans, the less conservative one would win thanks to Democratic voters.  Furthermore, the party with two candidates facing off in November would then spend a fortune in an intraparty battle, freeing the excluded party to spend its human and financial resources elsewhere.

In Orange County:

  • Republicans feared a November bloodbath in AD-74 between Allan Mansoor and Leslie Daigle, in which the less conservative candidate would win.  In AD-74, Republicans comprise 42.5% of registered voters, Democrats 29.0%, and no party preference voters 23.7%.
  • Democrats feard a November bloodbath in AD-69 between Tom Daly, Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, and Paco Barragan, in which the least liberal candidate would win.  In AD-69, Democrats comprise 49.7% of registered voters, Republicans 27.5%, and no party preference voters 19.1%.

Conventional wisdom held:

  • If no Democrat filed in AD-74, Democratic voters would back Republican Leslie Daigle over Republican Allan Mansoor in both June and November, as Daigle is less conservative than Mansoor.  Republicans would squander valuable human and financial resources in an intraparty battle for AD-74, freeing Democrats to spend their resources elsewhere.  However, if a Democrat were in the AD-74 race, presumably that person would be in the top two to face off against the winner of the Mansoor-Daigle fight.
  • If no Republican filed in AD-69, Republican voters would back Democrat Tom Daly over the other three Democrats (Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, and Paco Barragan) in June, as Daly is the least liberal of the four; the Republican voters would continue to back Daly over whichever Democrat he faced in November, as Daly would still be the less liberal candidate.  Democrats would squander valuable human and financial resources in an intraparty battle for AD-69, freeing Republicans to spend their resources elsewhere.  However, if a Republican were in the AD-69 race, presumably that person would be in the top two to face off against the winner of the Daly-Martinez-Perez-Barragan fight.

For about half a week, many in OC, including yours truly, thought the Democrats’ worst nightmare had materialized: a Democrat in AD-74 and no Republican in AD-69, as Robert Rush joined the Democratic Party and entered the AD-74 race while Republican Robert Hammond withdrew from AD-69 to join the Orange County Board of Education race.

Well both party’s fears came to naught and we revert to status quo in November with likely one Democrat versus one Republican.  As my intrepid fellow blog editor Chris Emami wrote, an obscure gentleman by the name of Jose Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose Moreno) filed as the sole Republican in AD-69 with barely two minutes to spare.

Robert Rush (D-74) and Jose Moreno (R-69) could spend the next three months in Siberia, and both will still be in the top two in their June races by virtue of having “Democrat” and “Republican” after their names, respectively, allowing them to advance to November, where they will be summarily destroyed by their opponent.

(In case you’re wondering, Rush has a ballot designation of “Business Owner/Accountant” and will be second on the ballot after Daigle but before Mansoor while Moreno has a ballot designation of “Orange County Eligibility Technician” and will be third on the ballot after Daly and Martinez but before Barragan and Perez.  Many voters will be left scratching their heads as to what an eligibility technician is, and if you’re one of them, here’s an explanation of what that is.)

Democrats won’t squander their resources on an intraparty AD-69 battle in November nor will Republicans squander their resources on an intraparty AD-74 battle in November.  Both parties will revert to the old rules of spending their resources against each other in November.

Former Senate Republican Leader Jim Brulte once said in reference to a San Francisco Mayoral race: “When you’re a conservative, and you’ve got a choice between a socialist and a communist, you back the socialist.”  Democrat Robert Rush has enabled the most conservative candidate to win in AD-74, and Republican Jose Moreno just enabled the most liberal candidate to win in AD-69.

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments »

Republicans Will Have A Candidate In AD 69. Or Will They???

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on March 15, 2012

Despite being sick yesterday and having to cancel most of my meetings I was stuck going to the Orange County Registrar of Voters to assist a client with filing his paperwork. As many of our readers may already know, yesterday was the close of the filing period for races that went into extension. It turns out that we had another game of “Beat The Clock” on our hands.


Republican candidate for AD 69 Jose Moreno got in the door at 4:54 PM and told the person helping him file his paperwork that he only had 20 signatures and had an associate that was bringing more signatures.

Sure enough at just a few seconds before 4:58 PM Central Committee Member Tim Whitacre ran in the door with 22 more signatures. This however left them with just 42 signatures and this is before the validation process began.

After the doors were already locked it appears that Lupe Moreno arrived and I believe she had some more signatures in her hand but I cannot be certain.

Getting 40 out of 42 signatures proven to be valid is not an easy thing to do, so it is very possible that Moreno will not actually qualify for the ballot.

With no Republican in the race it would not be a bad thing for the party as it forces a lot of Democratic Party money to be squandered in this race (Kindee Durkee would be proud). If a Republican jumps in the Democrats will not spend anything leading up to November and will focus on supporting Quirk-Silva in AD 65 and possibly even Daigle in AD 74.

We should have an answer by later today.

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , | 8 Comments »

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