OC Political

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Posts Tagged ‘Leslie Daigle’

AD-69: Traditional D vs. R Match-Up in Daly vs. Moreno; Martinez Plays Spoiler for Perez

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 13, 2012

On Monday, I took a look at AD-72, and in this post, I’ll be looking at another of OC’s multi-candidate Assembly races that has now narrowed down to two: AD-69.

Conventional wisdom held that if any OC district was going to feature an intraparty battle in November (courtesy of Prop 14), it was going to be the Republicans in AD-74 between Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle or the Democrats in AD-69 between OC Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly and either labor leader Julio Perez or Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez.  (Unexpectedly, it was AD-72 that created OC’s sole intraparty battle with an all-Republican November matchup between Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.)

AD-69 will come down to Daly and Republican OC Eligibility Technician Jose “Joe” Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno).

We here at OC Political predicted Daly vs. Moreno here, here, and here. (While we made several predictions that went wrong [like nearly everybody else, we failed to predict Edgar vs. Allen in AD-72], we’ve been consistent in predicting Daly 1st and Moreno 2nd in AD-69.)

This race was incredibly evenly divided.  Daly was far and away the top vote-getter, getting nearly double the number of votes of the second-place candidate.

Tom Daly 10,724 39.6%
Jose “Joe” Moreno 5,843 21.6%
Julio Perez 5,440 20.1%
Michele Martinez 4,506 16.6%
Francisco “Paco” Barragan 577 2.1%

Some readers may be wondering if Perez could still catch Moreno with the remaining uncounted ballots.   There just aren’t enough out there. 27,090 out of the 417,965 ballots counted in Orange County so far cast votes in AD-69, which equals 6.5% of the votes.  There are 9,528 uncounted ballots remaining in Orange County, which leaves approximately 619 votes remaining in AD-69.  To make up his current 403-vote deficit, Perez would need to be ahead of Moreno by 65.1%.  If Moreno captures 10% of the vote, that would require Perez get 75.1%, leaving just 14.9% to be split between Daly, Martinez, and Barragan.  Let’s say AD-69 has a disproportionate share of the outstanding ballots, and double that to 1,238 ballots remaining in AD-69, Perez would need to be ahead of Moreno by 32.6%.  That is a tough margin for Perez.  If Moreno captures 10% of the vote, that would require Perez get 42.6%, leaving just 47.4% to be split between Daly, Martinez, and Barragan.

It’s clear from the results that Martinez was Perez’s spoiler.  If just 10% of Martinez’s votes had gone to Perez, he would have surpassed Moreno and advanced to a run-off against Daly.  Martinez and Perez were clearly the liberal Democrats in the race, with Daly and Barragan the more moderate Democrats, and Moreno was the Republican.  The lion’s share of Martinez’s votes would have gone to Perez.

It’s now clear that without Michele Martinez in the race, union-backed Democrat Julio Perez would have advanced to the November run-off against business-backed Democrat Tom Daly.

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments »

AD-72: What Will Edgar & Allen Do in Their All-Republican November Matchup?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 11, 2012

This week, I’ll be doing a series analyzing OC’s multi-candidate Assembly races that have now narrowed down to two. Our opener is the surprise in AD-72.

Conventional wisdom held that if any OC district was going to feature an intraparty battle in November (courtesy of Prop 14), it was going to be the Republicans in AD-74 between Allan Mansoor and Leslie Daigle or the Democrats in AD-69 between Tom Daly and either Julio Perez or Michele Martinez.

Lo and behold, AD-72 came out of nowhere with an all-Republican November matchup between Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.

Troy Edgar & Travis Allen

AD-72 Matchup: Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) vs. Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach)

Conventional wisdom held that the Republican vote would split three ways between Edgar, Allen, and OC Board of Education Member Long Pham, while Joe Dovinh would hold most of the Democrats, with a small number of votes going to Democrat Albert Ayala.

Most people (myself included) predicted an Edgar vs. Dovinh matchup in November, a few predicted Allen vs. Dovinh, even fewer predicted Pham vs. Dovinh, but did anyone predict Edgar vs. Allen?

How did this happen?  Edgar was weaker than expected allowing Allen and Pham to eat up more Republican votes while Ayala was stronger than expected eating up much of Dovinh’s votes from Democrats.

This race was incredibly evenly divided.  First place was quite low at 28.2% and last place rose up to 13.6%.  Second, third, and fourth place were 0.5% apart.

Troy Edgar 17,594 28.2%
Travis Allen 12,300 19.7%
Joe Dovinh 12,055 19.3%
Long Pham 11,959 19.2%
Albert Ayala 8,492 13.6%

(Some readers may be wondering if Dovinh or Pham could still catch Allen with the remaining uncounted ballots.   There just aren’t enough out there. 62,400 out of the 409,824 ballots counted in Orange County so far cast votes in AD-72, which equals 15.2% of the votes.  There are 17,125 uncounted ballots remaining in Orange County, which leaves approximately 2,603 votes remaining in AD-72.  To make up the current 245-vote deficit, Dovinh would need to be ahead of Allen by 9.4%.  Dovinh never led Allen by more than 5.2%.  To make up his current 341-vote deficit, Pham would need to be ahead of Allen by 13.1% and also be 3.7% ahead of Dovinh.  Pham never led Allen by more than 5.5%.  Now, of that 17,125 uncounted ballots, there are 15,642 provisionals, which do tend to favor Democrats; presumably, 2,378 of those provisionals cast votes in the AD-72 race, but provisionals have a higher invalidity rate than other ballots.  Note also that Albert Ayala is still there sucking up a good chunk of votes that would otherwise go to Dovinh.)

The Edgar and Allen camps now face an interesting quandary: tack left, tack right, or try to do both.  During the primary, Edgar and Allen both tried to run right, each proclaiming he was the real conservative and the other was closet liberal.

Both Edgar and Allen have interesting partisan histories.  Edgar was a registered Democrat until switching his registration to Republican the same week that he filed to run for office for the first time when he did so in his successful bid for Los Alamitos City Council.  Allen has donated large sums of money to Democrats, as reported by Jon Fleischman over at FlashReport.

If they run right, Edgar and Allen can each undercut each other’s bases and grab Pham’s supporters.   If they run left, they can pick up Dovinh and Ayala’s supporters.  Will Edgar and Allen both run right?  Will they both run left?  Will one run right while the other runs left?  Will they attempt to be all things to all people, running right in mail to Republicans, running left in mail to Democrats, and proclaiming their independent/bipartisan/maverick qualities in mail to No Party Preference voters?

In the primary, both men were willing to dip into their personal funds to finance their campaigns.  Edgar dropped $100,000 while Allen dropped $95,500.  (By the way, Pham dropped $100,000 while Dovinh only dropped $1,000.)  Many people will note that candidates often loan their campaigns money to make their warchests look bigger than they actually are.  Well, not in AD-72!  The largest remaining warchest is less than $25,000.  Edgar, Allen, and Pham all spent the bulk of the money they dumped in their campaigns.  To recoup that money, they’re going to have to raise it.

Edgar and Allen will need to spend the summer raising more money or else be willing to dip into their personal fortunes again.  Either way, this should be an interesting November in AD-72, as Democrats laugh at Republican money being spent against Republicans.

(For our more literature-oriented readers, I will note in the race between Troy Edgar and Travis Allen, Marilynn Poe has endorsed her Council colleague, Edgar.)

Posted in 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

AD-74 Initial Reaction: Mansoor Dominates Daigle; Munger Jumped in Too Late for Daigle

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 5, 2012

Allan Mansoor, Leslie Daigle, Robert Rush

Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R-Costa Mesa), Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R-Newport Beach), and Businessman Robert Rush (D-Newport Beach)

With a 20% lead for Assemblyman Allan Mansoor over Councilwoman Leslie Daigle in the absentee votes, this will likely prove insurmountable for Daigle to overcome in late absentees and poll votes.  Charles Munger’s largesse was simply too late in the game to save Daigle to overcome Mansoor’s massive absentee lead.

Latest numbers
Mansoor: 42.8%
Rush: 34.4%
Daigle: 22.9%

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Working Together to Raise Our Taxes??

Posted by Thomas Gordon on May 29, 2012

20120529-115619.jpg

Why would Northern California’s Charles Munger Jr spend more than 500K of his own money on a race more than 400 miles from home?

The signs pictured above are littered all over Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach and Newport Beach and appear to show Newport Beach Council Member Leslie Daigle and Bob Rush working together.

How so?

Not only were the signs printed at the same sign shop, but they were hung by the same political sign installer at the exact same time?

Coordinated effort?

Let us know if you are willing to send either to Sacramento and trust that they will hold the line on higher taxes.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , | 16 Comments »

Bay Area’s Munger Spending on Behalf of Daigle in OC’s AD-74 Rises to Over $470,000

Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 23, 2012

Leslie Daigle, Charles Munger, Beth Gaines

Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, Santa Clara County Republican Party Chairman Charles Munger, Jr., and Assemblywoman Beth Gaines

We reported previously here and here about the vast sums of money that Santa Clara County Republican Party Chairman Charles Munger, Jr.’s Spirit of Democracy California PAC has spent on behalf of Newport Beach City Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, who is running against Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and businessman Bob Rush for the 74th Assembly District.  (Daigle and Mansoor are both registered Republicans, though it is widely known that Mansoor is the candidate of the conservatives, libertarians, Tea Party, etc. while Daigle is the candidate of the moderate and liberal-leaning factions.  Rush became a registered Democrat in February.)

The Spirit of Democracy California PAC formed by Munger, the son and namesake of Warren Buffett’s business partner, has now spent nearly half a million dollars on Daigle’s behalf in the last two weeks.  Specifically, it’s $470,671, which is broken down this way:

  • May 21: $145,000 for TV Commercials
  • May 21: $21,306 for Mailers
  • May 21: $20,190 for Mailers
  • May 21: $15,619 for Slate Mailers
  • May 15: $20,973 for Mailers
  • May 14: $180,000 for TV Commercials
  • May 14: $20,973 for Mailers
  • May 14: $7,500 for Consulting
  • May 14: $7,500 for Consulting
  • May 14: $25,111 for Mailers
  • May 14: $6,499 for Mailers

(Note that the $150,000 previously reported by Munger’s PAC was amended to $180,000 in a subsequent campaign finance report.)

This totals:

  • $325,000 for TV Commericals
  • $115,052 for Mailers
  • $15,619 for Slate Mailers
  • $15,000 for Consulting

The only other beneficiary of the largesse of the Spirit of Democracy California PAC is Assemblywoman Beth Gaines (R-Roseville), who has received $175,334 in independent expenditures from the PAC.

Munger has contributed $726,826 to the PAC.  Besides Munger, the only other contributor to the PAC is the California Dental Association, which has dropped $150,000.  That’s a total of $876,826 in the PAC.  They’ve spent a combined $646,005 for Daigle and Gaines, leaving $230,821 available for future spending.  Of course, Munger also has the deep pockets to drop far more into the PAC at a day’s notice.  After all, he and his sister, Molly Munger, have spent millions of dollars on California ballot measures.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Live from OCGOP Central Committee: Efforts to Remove Deborah Pauly as 1st Vice Chair

Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 21, 2012

Republican Party of Orange County Central Committee Meeting, May 21, 2012, Irvine Hyatt

Republican Party of Orange County Central Committee Meeting, May 21, 2012, Irvine Hyatt

The Republican Party of Orange County Central Committee meeting started shortly after 7 PM. After the invocation, the Pledge of Allegiance, the swearing-in of several new alternates, a resolution was brought up at 7:30 PM in memory of OCGOP Chairman Emeritus Tom Fuentes, who passed away on Friday. The Fuentes memorial resolution was adopted unanimously.

Then, there were some brief remarks about the OCGOP Flag Day celebration and a description of the state of the 74th Assembly District race between Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R-Costa Mesa) and Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R-Newport Beach).

The Pauly Removal Motion

At 7:47 PM, OCGOP Chairman Scott Baugh brought the motion to remove Villa Park Councilwoman Deborah Pauly from her post as First Vice Chair of the OCGOP.

He cited Youth Associates deciding to stop participating due to their discomfort with Pauly’s criticisms of the Party.

He cited Pauly’s allegations of corruption against Baugh. He said he should be removed if this is true.

He stated Pauly is divisive at a time when Republicans need to be united against Democrats.

He cited her use of the OCGOP First Vice Chair title as misrepresenting her as speaking for the OCGOP.

He cited her “Tweets of vulgarity” as unbecoming of the First Vice Chair of the OCGOP.

He cited a need for a smooth-running, unified party.

Baugh then recused himself from presiding as maker of the motion. Pauly was also recused as subject of the motion. Then, 2nd Vice Chair Mary Young became presiding officer.

Dean Grose was ruled out of order for attempting to refer the matter to Ethics Committee.

Orange City Councilman Fred Whitaker, Pauly’s predecessor as First Vice Chair, seconded the Baugh motion. Whitaker stated Vice Chairs should not distract from the Party and its campaigns. He always saw the First Vice Chair’s role as being a “supporting actor” in the Party.

Parliamentary Procedure

At 8 PM, Young asked Parliamentarian Kermit Marsh for clarification on the motion. Marsh stated it would require an absolute majority of all members; any absent members would have their votes sought by mail, with mail ballots returned within 10 days.

Marsh, who is also Ethics Committee Chair, noted he had not received an Ethics complaint against Pauly, and there was only the motion to remove at this point.

Marsh stated Robert’s Rules dictated that each side in favor and against of the motion should have alternating speakers and that Pauly should be allowed to speak in her own defense without being counted in the alternating speaker sequence.

At 8:07, Pauly opted to defer her remarks to the end, wanting to hear what others had to say first.

Speakers Debate the Motion

At 8:09, Lynn Schott was concerned that this was the first she heard of this motion so soon after the death of Tom Fuentes. She urged to delay until after the election to avoid interfering with the supervisorial election.

At 8:10, Fullerton Councilman Bruce Whitaker urged “victory through unity.” He noted the disruptions led by Gil Ferguson against Fuentes and argued Fuentes was able to deal with Ferguson and his allies without removing anyone. He urged the OCGOP to not take action that could interfere with the supervisorial election.

At 8:12, there was an arcane parliamentary procedure discussion that concluded Baugh and Fred Whitaker were the first two speakers in favor of the removal and Schott and Bruce Whitaker were the first two speakers against removal.

At 8:14, Huntington Beach Councilman Matt Harper spoke of his situation when he was YRFC Chair and had a Vice Chair from another faction, which distracted from the group’s efforts to grow the Republican Party and advance its candidates.

At 8:15, Dean Grose stated there were no complaints from Youth Associates. He questioned the timing, believing it could affect the supervisorial race. He complained of the circular firing squad and the need of Republicans to battle Democrats.

At 8:18, Fred Ameri spoke of being Tom Fuentes’s business partner for 17 years. He spoke of Fuentes being a man of action who sought to grow the party. He said there was too much time being spent on the distractions from Pauly. Ameri called on Pauly to resign to spare the time and controversy.

Pauly Speaks

At 8:22, Pauly declared this the funny season of politics. Citing Baugh’s allegations that she was misusing her title, she stated Baugh had actively campaigned and raised money for her supervisorial opponent (Todd Spitzer). She said it was his right, and there was no need to remove him (and implicitly no need to remove her). She spoke of her disgust that the Youth Associates were dragged into this, particularly since she knew of no complaints from them.

She spoke of having only missed one Central Committee meeting in 5.5 years. She spoke of her concern at the shrinking of the Republican Party, as Republicans registered No Party Preference. She spoke of her time volunteering to grow the party, including registering new voters on a near-daily basis.

She said it was her responsibility to represent not just the Central Committee to the public, but the public to the Central Committee. She stated Baugh was seeking to “do away with” her using the supervisorial race, as she stated he was already attempting to find a way to remove her.

Pauly stated on May 31 (the day the mail ballots for her removal were due), that Spitzer would send out a hit piece about her Republican peers removing her.

She questioned who would count the ballots on the vote to remove her.

She said she would never leave the Republican Party, as she is a true believer in the principles of the party.

She said she first ran for Central Committee to reform the corruption she saw in the party, specifically citing Mike Carona.

She cited Daigle and Spitzer’s 3%@50 votes.

She said Fuentes told her that the Chair and First Vice Chair should meet regularly. She said when she arranged her first meeting with Baugh, he berated her for everything she’d done wrong.

Pauly stated the effort to remove her was solely to provide Spitzer with a June 1 hit piece, just before the June 5 election for Supervisor.

She stated this effort to remove her should be properly noticed for the June Central Committee meeting.

Pauly stated there is right and wrong, and that this is wrong.

Baugh Speaks on the Motion

At 8:36, Baugh asked Spitzer if he would use this removal in a hit piece, and Spitzer pledged he would “not spend one red cent” on this.

Baugh then stated he had been urged to bring this motion thrice before.

He then stated that he would be out of the country in June, the Central Committee is dark in July, and August was election season again. He stated that’s why he brought the motion in May.

He made the distinction that Spitzer did not know about the true cost of 3%@50 when he voted and now apologizes for it while Daigle knew the true cost and continues to lie about her votes.

Baugh stated that there is nothing wrong with disagreement and competition, but that it is wrong to make provocative and incendiary statements that embarrass the party.

He said the motion is to prevent a house divided, not divided on ideas but divided on personality.

Parliamentary Questions

At 8:43, Matt Harper asked to extend the balloting period to June 6 to avoid interfering with the election. Marsh said the by-laws require exactly 10 days.

At 8:44, Fred Whitaker asked if the 10 day period applied to those present and voting. Marsh said it only applies to physically absent people whose alternates were not present.

Marsh stated Secretary Zonya Townsend and Sergeant at Arms Norm Dickinson would be responsible for counting the ballots.

At 8:46, a question was asked if minutes could be provided to absent voters. It was pointed out that minutes report actions not quotes.

At 8:47, Matt Harper asked if it was 10 calendar days or 10 business days. It was quickly ruled (while both sides shouted) that it was 10 calendar days.

At 8:48, Pauly asked to speak to rebut Baugh. Young refused.

Pauly then asked for a roll call vote.

Pauly then stated she could battle Democrats’ accusations of the GOP’s war on women.

She asked who would be next after her for removal.

She said she has not used her OCGOP title to run for Supervisor while Spitzer had used his former Assemblyman title.

Young and Pauly fought back and forth about whether Pauly was out of order, but was able to get the remarks above out.

A Central Committee member shouted out calling for a roll call vote. Young rejected the proposal because the motion was made with the expectation of written ballots.

Voting

At 8:53, voting began.

At 9:14, Young asked for the remaining two voters to cast their ballots: Westminster Councilman Tyler Diep and Deborah Pauly herself.

At 9:16, Young declared the balloting closed.

At 9:19, Rhonda Rohrabacher spoke about precinct walking opportunities to help Allan Mansoor and using smartphone apps for precinct walking.

At 9:20, US Senate candidate Greg Conlon spoke about how “vulnerable” Dianne Feinstein is and that Republicans will gain the Senate. He stated he believed that Feinstein would resign rather than be in a minority. He stated Jerry Brown would then appoint Gavin Newsom to the Senate. Conlon spoke of his previous candidacy as the Republican Nominee for State Treasurer in 2002. He stated he was sending 1,000,000 pieces of mail and has residual name ID from 2002.

At 9:24, Walter H. Myers III spoke of the American Dream Outreach Committee’s efforts to attract more voters to the Republican Party. Myers spoke of the committee’s presence at the Black April commemoration in Little Saigon. Myers spoke of the committee’s presence at the Taiwanese Heritage event. Myers spoke of the committee’s presence at the Israel Expo. He credited Mark Cohen and Deborah Pauly for organizing these. Chandra Chell, Dean Grose, Craig Alexander, Emily Sanford, Cuong Cao, and a couple names I didn’t catch (sorry, readers).

RESULTS

At 9:28, the votes were announced.

Out of 71 members, 66 votes were cast. 5 will need to be mailed.

47 votes to remove, 16 votes against removing, 1 abstention.

PAULY REMOVED.

At 9:29, Pauly said she had no report but was honored to have served as First Vice Chair.

At 9:30, Young reported 5,000 Republican voter registrations.

At 9:32, Townsend reported Dianna Gadberry was the OCGOP Volunteer of the Month.

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 111 Comments »

Munger Drops Another $366,604 into Pro-Daigle PAC Bringing Total Contributions to $876,826

Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 18, 2012

Two days ago, I wrote about the $360,222 that Santa Clara County Republican Party Chairman Charles Munger, Jr. dumped into the Spirit of Democracy California, a committee that spent $217,583 on behalf of Newport Beach City Councilwoman Leslie Daigle and $83,171 on behalf of Assemblywoman Beth Gaines.  Daigle is challenging Assemblyman Allan Mansoor while Gaines is being challenged by attorney Andy Pugno.  (Daigle, Gaines, Mansoor, and Pugno are all registered Republicans.)

The California Dental Association had also dropped $150,000 into the committee.  The committee has now received $876,826 from Munger’s two contributions and the Dental Association’s single contribution.

The PAC has since spent $20,973 for a pro-Daigle mailer, on top of the $217,583 it previously spent for her, bringing its total pro-Daigle spending to $238,556.

The PAC has since spent $17,992 for a pro-Gaines mailer and $15,000 for pro-Gaines TV ads, on top of the $83,171 it previously spent for her, bringing its total pro-Gaines spending to $116,163.

The Spirit of Democracy California PAC still has more than half a million dollars cash on hand ($522,107, to be exact).  Munger has also demonstrated he can still dump in hundreds of thousands of dollars at a moment’s notice.

Posted in 74th Assembly District, Independent Expenditures | Tagged: , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Dentists & Bay Area’s Munger Spend $218,000 in 4 Days to Support Leslie Daigle

Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 16, 2012

Leslie Daigle, Charles Munger, Beth Gaines

Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, Santa Clara County Republican Party Chairman Charles Munger, Jr., and Assemblywoman Beth Gaines

Santa Clara County Republican Party Chairman Charles Munger, Jr., who funded Proposition 11 of 2008 and Proposition 20 of 2010 (Prop 11 formed the redistricting commission while Prop 20 extended the commission’s jurisdiction to Congressional districts), and the California Dental Association together spent $218,000 between May 10-14 to support Republican Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle in her bid to unseat incumbent Republican Assemblyman Allan Mansoor.

  • On April 13, Munger dropped $360,222 into the “Spirit of Democracy California” PAC.
  • On Thursday (May 10), the California Dental Association IE PAC dropped another $150,000 into the PAC.  That same day, the SDC spent $39,110 in for Daigle.
  • On Monday (May 14), SDC spent $83,171 to support Sacramento-area incumbent Republican Assemblywoman Beth Gaines in her bid to defend her seat against Republican Attorney Andy Pugno.  That same day, SDC also spent $178,473 to support Daigle.

That leaves $209,469 left in the SDC PAC.

For visual learners:

Munger
Contributions
Dental
Contributions
Pro-Gaines
Expenditures
Pro-Daigle
Expenditures
Cash on
Hand
Spirit of Democracy
California
 $360,222 $150,000 $83,171 $217,583 $209,469

Here’s a breakdown of the Spirit of Democracy California IEs for Daigle thus far: one $150,000 payment for TV ads, three mailer payments totaling $52,583, and two consultant payments, each $7,500.  For Gaines, there’s one $54,000 payment for radio ads, one $14,171 payment for a mailer, and two consultant payments each $7,500.

For visual learners:

TV Ads Radio Ads Mailers Consultants Total
Pro-Daigle IEs  $150,000 $0 $52,583 $15,000 $217,583
Pro-Gaines IEs  $0 $54,000 $14,171 $15,000 $83,171

For those of you reading carefully, you may have noticed the $150,000 figure for TV ads for Daigle is exactly the dollar amount that the California Dental Association dropped into the Spirit of Democracy California.

Munger’s spending a lot of money this month.  Just last week, he spent $750,000 to fund the California Reform Institute, run by Senator Sam Blakeslee.

With $209,469 left in the Spirit of Democracy California PAC (and Munger’s very deep pockets), this could be a long three weeks for Mansoor and Pugno.

Posted in 74th Assembly District, Independent Expenditures | Tagged: , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

Council Colleague Rush Hill Endorses Leslie Daigle in AD74 Race

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 18, 2012

As a Republican, I am glad to see a Democrat in the AD 74 race for the same reason that I was hoping for no Republican to run in the AD 69 race. This is a post Prop 14 world and we need to realize the way that the game works now.

I have predicted that Robert Rush will defeat Leslie Daigle for the number 2 slot in the AD 74 June election (Read more about this race here).

Leslie Daigle has apparently realized this as well. She issued a press release that could best be described as a shot across the bow to the Robert Rush campaign. See the press release here: Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 74th Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 18, 2012

This race will also be an interesting one, but I will go out on a limb and say that it will be less interesting than people think.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat would normally be considered another Republican stronghold with a 13 point registration advantage but based on the results of the 2008 election I will hold off judgement until after 2012. Democrats have just a 6 point registration gap above DTS voters. In 2008 Democrats did have som major victories in the new AD 74 where Obama won and Proposition 8 failed.

Incumbent Assemblyman Allan Mansoor currently holds this seat and his running for his first re-election. He is backed by the current Republican establishment along with most of the grassroots and volunteer organization. I have met Chad Morgan who is running his race and he is a nice guy.

His challengers include:

Leslie Daigle a Council Member/Businesswoman from Newport Beach who is running as a Republican. My interactions with her have never been pleasant.

Robert Rush a Business Owner/Accountant who is running as a Democrat.

The factors at play- Alan Mansoor has incumbency, name ID, and party affiliation on his side. I don’t buy the argument that his name ID is low in the new parts of the district thus making him vulnerable.

The anti-incumbency vote will be split between Rush and Daigle but Rush has the advantage of being an alternative to a Republican for Democrats and DTS voters.

Daigle has high name ID on Newport Beach, but I just think that most of the obstacles in this race seem to hurt her more than Mansoor or Rush. It appears that Daigle is not trilled with Rush being in this race, stay tuned for a press release from her that I will post in a bit.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Allan Mansoor & Robert Rush

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , | 1 Comment »