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Posts Tagged ‘Jose Moreno’

DISTRICTS SHMISTRICTS!

Posted by James Madison on November 16, 2016

Two big cities in Orange County switched to district elections this year due to lawsuits filed by Hispanic activists to force the creation of Hispanic-leaning districts. How’d that work out?

In Anaheim, two districts were designated as “Hispanic” districts. Jordan Brandman beat Hispanic activist Jose Moreno in one of them, and Lucille Kring slaughtered leftwing Arturo Ferreras in the other. The upshot – Anaheim will now have seven Caucasians on its council, and no Hispanics.

In Garden Grove, two districts were also designated as “Hispanic”. In one, 23-year old Kim Bernice Nguyen beat Rickk Montoya, who had been the plaintiff in the districting lawsuit. In the other, white neighborhood activist Stephanie Klopfenstein beat LULAC-favorite Demian Garcia-Monroy. Bottom line: Garden Grove goes from a council of three Vietnamese and two Caucasians, to a council of four Caucasians and three Vietnamese, and still, no Hispanics.

In the meantime, in the cities of Westminster and La Habra, which have no district elections, Sergio Contreras and Rose Espinoza were easily reelected.

Just goes to show, if you have good candidates you can win anywhere, while if you have lousy candidates, you can’t force-feed them to the voters anywhere.

By the way, lawsuits to force district elections may soon be a thing of the past. They are all based on the California Voting Rights Act, which virtually demands that cities create districts by race. When new Trump justices join the Supreme Court, the Court could well rule the California Voting Rights Act to be unconstitutional as an illegal intrusion of race into the line drawing process. Are you paying attention, Fullerton and Costa Mesa????

Posted in Anaheim, Costa Mesa, Fullerton, Garden Grove, La Habra, Westminster | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

OUSD School Bond Measure S Supporters Pulling Down Signs & Spending Taxpayer Dollars

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 3, 2016

Cross-posted to OC Daily.

After three failed attempts to pass a school bond in the last 13 years, supporters of a school bond in the Orange Unified School District have taken some rather creative steps to try to pass Measure S, a property tax increase $288,000,000 bond for four schools.

In their campaign to raise property taxes, Yes on S supporters apparently have no problem abusing tax dollars, disregarding private property rights, and disrespecting the First Amendment right to free speech of the opponents.

As Matt Cunningham reported yesterday on OC Daily, the Anaheim Union High School District appears to have used public resources for political activity, namely the campaign of Jose Moreno for Anaheim City Council.  The Orange Unified School District has more aggressively used public resources to promote Measure S.

Taxpayer-Funded Measure S Mailer

Spending $22,949.45 of taxpayer money under the guise of an informational flyer, OUSD mailed 77,000 copies of a mailer entitled, “Measure S Would Provide The Funding Needed To Repair & Upgrade Our Classrooms” that featured photos of smiling teenagers.  A true informational flyer would simply have been a plain text, black and white sheet of paper, not a colorful mailer reminiscent of campaign mailers.  Here is the mailer:

OUSD Measure S Mailer, September 10 OUSD Measure S Mailer, September 10
Click on the images above for the PDF of the mailer.

Under the “Important Information About Measure S” heading, OUSD notes that Measure S is a $288,000 bond (rather than the actual amount of $288,000,000).  When asked whether this was an attempt to mislead the voters or just incompetence while spending taxpayer dollars, the district went with the latter.

Click here to view the $22,949.45 OUSD purchase order and the invoice from Marketink in Los Angeles County.  Ironically, OUSD couldn’t find a printer in Orange County despite the Measure S campaign touting that the funds would remain local.  The invoice also shows the district paid 9% sales tax.  Had they used an Orange County printer, sales tax would have only been 8%, with 0.5% of the 8% going to Orange County’s Measure M2 transportation projects.

OC Daily’s Matt Cunningham previously reported about this mailer here

Yes on Measure S Display at Nohl Canyon Elementary School

Yes on Measure S Display at Nohl Canyon Elementary School

Yes on Measure S Tables on School Campuses

In a further use of public resources, pro-Measure S tables have been erected on school campuses.

The photo at right was taken in the Learning Center at Nohl Canyon Elementary School in Anaheim Hills during the school’s book fair.

A similar table was reportedly at Villa Park High School during Back-to-School Night, where people were jumping around in “Yes on S” T-Shirts and handing out stickers, signs, and other collateral.  They were also trying to coerce parents to “sign up” for the “Yes on S” campaign.

Apparently, the Measure S proponents are unfamiliar with the separation of taxpayer resources and political campaigns.

Sign Theft & Banner Destruction

If the use of taxpayer resources was not enough, the Yes on S side is disregarding property rights and actively censoring the No on S side.  Apparently, the Yes on S side didn’t pay attention to their American Government classes during the discussion on the First and Fifth Amendments.

Here’s a video of a “No on S” sign being pulled out of a front yard on East Cumberland Road in Orange. The video was taken from the surveillance camera of the homeowner whose sign was taken.  The individual taking the sign appears to be a government employee though the video is too far away to determine which jurisdiction the sign-taker works for.

Here are some photos of someone else stealing “No on S” signs from a business in Orange on Chapman Avenue.  Click on any of the thumbnails for a larger version of the photo.

Here’s a photo of a “No on S” banner that got slashed.  Apparently, civility is no longer taught in schools.  Click on the photo below to see a larger version of it.No on Measure S Banner Slashed

Polling Data Used for Bond Measure Placement

ONN Founders Jim Bearns and Joe MelloThe Greater Orange News Service reported that the OUSD Board used polling data to have one bond taxing the whole district for four schools rather than two bonds, each taxing half the district for two schools.

As an aside: the pro-union, often-innuendo-laden Greater Orange News Service is an anonymous blog covering OUSD that was founded by Yorba Academy of the Arts Middle School Teacher Joe Mello (who sits on the board of the Orange Unified Education Association, the OUSD teacher’s union) and Los Alamitos Unified School District Teacher Jim Bearns.  Mello and Bearns are pro-bond, but as residents of Long Beach, they won’t have to pay for the property tax increase imposed by Measure S.

Pay to Play In School Bond Measures in the OC

For those of you who missed Craig Alexander’s post on OC Political yesterday, Craig reported about a California Policy Center study that found:

  • Law firm Atkinson, Andelson, Loya, Rudd & Romo donated $12,000 to Yes on Measure S (the law firm’s web site highlights legal services regarding school facilities construction)
  • Architecture firm LPA donated $10,000 to Yes on Measure S

As of the September 29 campaign finance report, the Yes on S campaign had raised $151,525, with 90% coming from its 15 largest donors, led by:

  • Orange Unified Education Association (Union) $25,885
  • HED (Architects) $20,000
  • Balfour Beatty Construction $20,000
  • Ameresco (Solar Energy) $15,000
  • Atkinson, Andelson, Loya, Ruud & Romo (Attorneys) $12,000
  • LPA (Architects) $10,000
  • Parker & Covert (Attorneys) $10,000

The remaining 10% included no fewer than 45 employees of the school district.

They’ve raised thousands of dollars since that campaign finance report, but OC Political/OC Daily has not yet examined their October campaign finance reports.

A decidedly grassroots effort, the No on S side raised a tiny fraction of that.  However, the grassroots defeated three well-funded bond measure efforts in the last 13 years.

Posted in Orange Unified School District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

AD-69: Moreno Drops Out Citing Hatch Act, Name Will Remain on Ballot

Posted by Chris Nguyen on September 28, 2012

In case you hadn’t read the other blogs (like Liberal OC or Orange Juice) yesterday, Republican 69th Assembly District candidate Jose “Joe” Moreno announced that he was dropping out of the AD-69 race because of the Hatch Act.

While the timing is surprising, this development itself should not be of surprise to anyone:

  • On March 29, Moreno wrote to the Registrar of Voters attempting to withdraw from the AD-69 race, citing the Hatch Act.  (The Registrar denied this request.)
  • In the second week of April, OC Political, the OC Register, the Liberal OC, and then OC Political again speculated/warned/advised that Moreno’s candidacy likely violated the Hatch Act.
  • On April 21, Moreno issued this press release declaring his candidacy was not in violation of the Hatch Act.
  • On April 23, the Liberal OC again wrote that Moreno’s candidacy violated the Hatch Act.
  • On July 18, unbeknownst to the OC mainstream media and blogosphere, the U.S. Office of Special Counsel issued an advisory opinion, entitled “California’s Voter-Nominated Primary Elections are Presumptively Partisan for Purposes of the Hatch Act.”

In that July 18 advisory opinion, the U.S. Office of Special Counsel  stated:

In short, California’s voter-nominated elections are presumptively partisan elections for purposes of the Hatch Act. As such, an SSA employee covered by the Hatch Act may not be a candidate in voter-nominated primary elections.

The advisory opinion also states:

…even if voter-nominated elections were designated nonpartisan by the California Constitution, and therefore presumed nonpartisan for purposes of section 1503, the presumption would be rebutted. The California Constitution allows candidates in the voter-nominated primaries to list a party preference following their names on the ballot…

Though the advisory opinion is redacted, it’s fairly obvious that this was the advisory opinion requested regarding Moreno.  There are only 306 candidates running in a California voter-nominated race in November (2 each for the U.S. Senate, for 53 U.S. House races, for 20 State Senate races, and for 78 Assembly races, plus Assemblywoman Susan Bonilla (D-14) and Assemblyman Isadore Hall III (D-64), both of whom are unopposed).  Moreno is the only one of the 306 to work for a Social Services Agency.

(One interesting footnote in the advisory opinion:

Arguably, if in a particular voter-nominated primary election all of the candidates were to run without designating a political party as their party preference then the election could be considered a nonpartisan election for purposes of section 1503 of the Hatch Act.

So a bunch of NPPs running could technically make the race nonpartisan for purposes of the Hatch Act.)

In April, OC Political had noted the case of Geof Lickey, who was able to get off of the June 2012 ballot for the AD-31 seat due to the Hatch Act because he acted more quickly than Moreno did.

The fifth commenter on this June post from Liberal OC pointed to the case of Judge Ronald Kline, who withdrew in the tiny window after the primary but before certification of the election.  The courts eventually ruled that third-place finisher Gay Sandoval would replace Kline on the November runoff ballot.  (John Adams, who had originally won the right to face off against Kline, defeated Sandoval.)

Had Moreno or the Orange County Social Services Agency moved more quickly to seek an advisory opinion from the U.S. Office of Special Counsel back in April, Moreno’s ineligibility could have been discovered sooner, and he could have withdrawn during the primary.  Considering Moreno only edged out Julio Perez by 242 votes, it is not inconceivable that more than 242 voters had Googled the race and discovered that Moreno’s press release or the various blog posts (such as this one from Orange Juice) in which he declared as lies the Jobs PAC IEs on behalf of Daly that claimed Moreno had dropped out (I believe his claim was also posted on his web site before he took it down).

Or if Moreno had withdrawn before the June primary was certified, voters in AD-69 would have had a choice between first-place finisher Tom Daly and third-place finisher Julio Perez.  Due to Prop 14, voters don’t even have the choice of a write-in candidate, so this late withdrawal leaves AD-69 voters with the choice of Daly or the withdrawn Moreno.

While this was Moreno’s first run for partisan office, this was not his first time throwing his hat in the political ring.  According to JoinCalifornia, Moreno had previously run unsuccessfully for Orange County Board of Education (2000 primary), Rancho Santiago Community College District (2000 general), and Anaheim Union High School District (2010 general).

We are now left with just two questions: Will Moreno resign his ex officio seat on the Republican Central Committee?  What will Garden Grove Councilman Steve Jones do about his endorsement flip-flopping between Democrat Daly and Republican Moreno.

Moreno’s site is down, but this is what he wrote before he took it down: Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 69th Assembly District, Anaheim Union High School District, Garden Grove, Orange County Board of Education, Rancho Santiago Community College District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

2012 General Election Predictions: 69th Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 18, 2012

This prediction won’t make Republicans happy, but my goal here is to be realistic not optimistic.The 69th Assembly District has been a nightmare for Republicans since forever. The district is an Orange County seat that covers Santa Ana and part of Anaheim:

Thank you to Meridian Pacific for the use of the map.

As you can see Democrats have a registration of 50.2%, Republican have a registration of 28.0%, and DTS have a registration of 18.2%. Republicans won nothing in this district back in 2010 but on an interesting note these are socially conservative Democrats as Prop 8 passed by over 20 points.

In the June election Jose Moreno advanced to June but he actually did worse than I projected falling almost 7% below Republican registration. Here are the results:

Member of the State Assembly; District 69

  • Tom Daly, Democratic ………. 10,939 votes 39.2%
  • Jose “Joe” Moreno, Republican ………. 5,980 votes 21.4%
  • Julio Perez, Democratic ………. 5,738 votes 20.6%
  • Michele Martinez, Democratic ………. 4,651 votes 16.7%
  • Francisco “Paco” Barragán, Democratic ………. 605 votes 2.2%

Francisco Barragans total just utterly shocks me as I cannot believe he only got 605 votes. As you can see from the above numbers Moreno finished almost 18% behind Tom Daly and he was the only Republican in the race.

On an interesting note Daly is not doing so well on fundraising with only $22,000 left in his account after the primary election. Sadly Moreno is doing worse without the fundraising ability to trigger online filing.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Tom Daly

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

Did Garden Grove Councilman Steve Jones Endorse Tom Daly or Jose Moreno for AD-69?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on September 18, 2012

Almost five months ago, the Tom Daly for Assembly campaign issued a press release called, “Four Garden Grove City Councilmembers Endorse Tom Daly for Assembly” (which you can still find on Daly’s web site, which we ran on OC Political, and which Liberal OC ran).  You can also find Jones still listed in Daly’s endorsement list.

Jones sought the Republican Party of Orange County’s endorsement last night.  Central Committee Member Tim Whitacre pulled Jones from consideration because Jones had endorsed Democrat Tom Daly (as the press release above indicated).

When questioned, Jones denied that he endorsed Daly (contradicting the press release above).

OC GOP Chairman Scott Baugh then asked if Jones had endorsed AD-69 Republican Candidate Jose “Joe” Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno).

Jones said he had not but then immediately endorsed Moreno in front of the ~150 people in attendance at the OC GOP Central Committee meeting.

With Jones denying that he endorsed Daly and with him endorsing Moreno live, the Central Committee then had a unanimous voice vote to endorse Jones.

The discrepancy still needs to be resolved however.  Was the Daly press release from the spring erroneous, and is Daly still erroneously listing Jones? Or did Jones flip his endorsement just last night?  Has Jones contacted Daly to discuss the present status of his endorsement?

Posted in 69th Assembly District, Garden Grove, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

Live from OC GOP Central Committee

Posted by Chris Nguyen on September 17, 2012

Okay, lots of procedural things out of the way…

7:20 PM: Oath administered.  I’m officially an alternate.

7:21 PM: Officeholders and candidates in the room introducing themselves: Baron Night, Dean Grose, Jose Moreno, Brett Franklin, Charles Hart, Dwight Robinson, Tony Beall, Mike Munzing, Kim McCarthy, Mike Mortenson, Debbie Cotton, Elizabeth Emken, Jim Dahl, Karina Onofre, Ellen Adonizzio, Jim Reardon, Carlos Olvera, Brian Chuchua, Roy Byrnes, Steven Vargas, Diane Harkey, Lucille Kring, Brett Barbre, Denis Bilodeau, Jon Dumitru, Deborah Pauly, Alexia Deligianni, Cathy Schlict, Mark McCurdy, Jeff Mathews, Lynn Schott, Bruce Whitaker, Wendy Bucknum, Ceci Iglesias, Barry Levinson, Susan Hinman, Sam Allevato, Erik Peterson, Robert Hammond, Jennifer Fitzgerald, Brad McGirr, Christina Shea, Don Wagner, Alexandria Coronado, Chuck Puckett, John Nielsen, Doug Davert, George Collins, Adam Nick, Steve Nagel, Michelle Ollada Alipio, Bill Brough, Lupe Moreno, and Chris Norby.

7:27 PM: Minutes approved.

7:28 PM: Chairman Scott Baugh discusses the importance of candidates stepping up at all times not just around the candidates’ own elections.

7:29 PM: At the request of Chairman Scott Baugh, Orange County Board of Education Trustee Robert Hammond discussed being at the County School Boards Association meeting where the attendees complained low voter turnout will allow “the Republicans from Orange County to defeat Prop 30 and Prop 38.”

7:30 PM: Baugh describes the 13 open OC GOP GOTV HQs and mentions 3 more are on the way.

7:31 PM: Baugh speaks of the Costa Mesa Charter Amendment being a priority of the Republican Party.

7:33 PM: Committee Alternate Bill Dunlap speaks of the importance of getting out the vote.  Only 26% of OC voters cast their ballots in June.  He describes a number of party-sponsored get-out-the-vote efforts.

7:36 PM: Baugh delivers the 1st Vice Chair’s report on behalf of John Warner: the report included information about the next countywide precinct walk as well as information about Congressman John Campbell agreeing to fund a GOTV headquarters in the City of Orange.

7:38 PM: Fullerton RWF President Beverly Gunter speaks of RWF’s efforts to fundraise, phone bank, and precinct walk for candidates.  She presents a $900 check from RWF to subsidize

7:39 PM: My boss from my day job, Chris Norby, speaks of his race for re-election.

Endorsements Committee Report

7:41 PM: Endorsements Committee Chair Mark Bucher begins his long-awaited report.  He speaks of Prop 32’s 55%-37% lead despite “Yes on Prop 32” not starting any advertising until today while “No on Prop 32” had been pounding away for a month.  He also speaks of the finances of the Prop 32 battle.

7:43 PM: Now he actually begins his long-awaited report on endorsements…

7:44 PM: Bucher thanks fellow Endorsements Committee Members Chandra Chell, Thomas Gordon, Ray Grangoff, Matt Harper, and Mary Young.  He describes the endorsement procedures and goes over the list.  (Here’s the list again.  Here and here are the live blogs of those meetings.)

7:48 PM: Parliamentarian Kermit Marsh says the Endorsements Committee may not recommend a dual endorsement while the Central Committee can make a dual endorsement (in reference to the contest between Brett Franklin and Charles Hart for Santa Ana City Council, Ward 3).

7:50 PM: Bucher continues his report briefly summarizing the more controversial contests.

7:52 PM: The list is moved with the following pulled from the list:

  • Sam Allevato for San Juan Capistrano City Council (original recommendation was postpone to October) pulled by Diane Harkey
  • Lynn Schott for Irvine City Council (original recommendation was for endorsement) pulled by Scott Baugh
  • Measure FF (original recommendation was for endorsement of Yes on FF) pulled by Deborah Pauly
  • Jennifer Fitzgerald for Fullerton City Council (original recommendation was for endorsement) pulled by Tim Whitacre
  • Brian Neil Chuchua for Anaheim City Council (original recommendation was no endorsement) pulled by Tim Whitacre
  • All Mission Viejo candidates (original recommendation was for endorsement of Frank Ury and Wendy Bucknum, but not Cathy Schlict nor Ed Saches) pulled by Scott Peotter

San Juan Capistrano City Council – Sam Allevato

8:02 PM: Debate begins.  State Assemblywoman Diane Harkey moves and Lucille Kring seconds to endorse Sam Allevato for San Juan Capistrano City Council.  Allan Bartlett and Deborah Pauly will speak against.

8:04 PM: Harkey speaks of being dragged through the mud in politics.  She states many lies have been spread about Allevato.  She says there are five high schools in San Juan Capistrano: one public and four private.  She speaks of heavy congestion from the proximity of the schools.  She gets booed when she attempts to speak over time.

8:07 PM: Baugh reiterates the time limits.

8:08 PM: Pauly speaks of the controversy about the tax on religious schools and the property tax increases.  She speaks of the importance of following the process in which the endorsements committee recommended delaying consideration of San Juan Capistrano City Council until October.

8:10 PM: In an unusual action, Harkey speaks again in favor of Allevato since no one else is planning to speak in support of him.  She speaks of the debt and septic issues in the City of San Juan Capistrano.

8:13 PM: Slight delay as speakers exchange places.

8:14 PM: Bartlett praises Harkey.  He speaks against Allevato due to Allevato sending a 2010 mailer supporting Larry Agran and opposing Jeff Lalloway.

8:16 PM: Jon Fleischman asks for the Endorsements Committee’s rationale behind recommending a delay until October.

8:16 PM: Bucher explains several candidates applied late and that many people had concerns about the candidates.

8:17 PM: Don Wagner asks about the Allevato Irvine mailer that was pro-Agran and anti-Lalloway.

8:17 PM: Allevato says he works for Forde & Mollrich but not on the campaign side.  A quote was included from him as a retired IPD Lieutenant supporting Larry Agran.

8:18 PM: Bartlett says, “For the record, Jeff Lalloway opposes the endorsement of Allevato.”  Harkey says, “For the record, Jeff’s my alternate!”  Baugh rules both out of order.

8:19 PM: In response to a question, Allevato defends the tax on the religious school as a student impact fee that the school agreed to pay.  He goes on to explain the intricacies of student impact fees in San Juan Capistrano.

8:23 PM: Harkey asks Allevato to explain various land use decisions.

8:24 PM: Allevato speaks of various issues related to sewage costs from a plant in San Juan Capistrano.

8:26 PM: Baugh states it looks like the committee is not supportive of the motion to endorse Allevato.

8:26 PM: Harkey says he wants to go for it, and his wishes should be respected.

8:27 PM: Allevato says he (and Ginny Kerr) answered his questionnaire on time and got his signatures.   Allevato says the other candidates failed to do so.

8:27 PM: Bartlett moves and John Draper seconds a substitute motion to delay to October (restoring the Endorsement Committee’s original recommendation).

8:28 PM: By voice vote, the committee refers the Allevato endorsement back to the Endorsements Committee.

Elizabeth Emken Speaks

8:29 PM: Bucher asks Baugh to let Elizabeth Emken speak, and Baugh agrees.

8:30 PM: Former CRP Chair Ron Nehring praises the OC GOP.  He praises the efforts of the OC GOP on behalf of Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Costa Mesa Mayor Pro Tem Jim Righeimer.  He speaks of watching the DNC.  He praises Mitt Romney and blasts Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.  He begins to introduce Elizabeth Emken by speaking of the importance of fighting for every seat from Mosquito Abatement District to U.S. Senate.

8:33 PM: Emken demands that Feinstein discuss her record.  Emken speaks of her own education and financial background.  She speaks of her efforts on behalf of her autistic son and other autistic children.  She speaks of her efforts to lobby Congress.  She says, “Obamacare is bad for everyone.”  She challenged Feinstein to debate and notes even the LA Times says Emken deserves the right to debate Feinstein.  She says the LA Daily News and the OC Register agree.  She says 123,000 people have seen the footage from ABC 7 in Los Angeles of Feinstein refusing to agree to debate.  Emken asks for money and plugs her web site.

Santa Ana City Council, Ward 3 – Brett Franklin and Charles Hart

8:41 PM: There was a quick discussion that although the Endorsements Committee did not have the power to recommend a dual endorsement in Santa Ana City Council, Ward 3, that the Central Committee does have that power and so both Brett Franklin and Charles Hart are endorsed.

8:42 PM: Baugh asks for a vote again just to make sure.  The Central Committee votes unanimously to endorse both Franklin and Hart.

Irvine City Council – Lynn Schott

8:43 PM: Baugh speaks of the 25-year inability of the Republican Party to remove Larry Agran from the Irvine City Council.  He speaks of the OC GOP prioritizing Costa Mesa this year.  Baugh asks Lynn Schott about her former alternate Patrick Rodgers who attacked the Costa Mesa Council majority and the Costa Mesa Charter.

8:46 PM: Schott says Rodgers was a strong supporter in 2010.  She says she was completely unaware of Rodgers’s statements until the Endorsements Committee meeting.  She says she tries to not read blogs.  She condemns Rodgers’s statements and “repudiates” the attempt to frame Righeimer for DUI.  Rodgers admitted to her that he had gone too far.  She obtained his resignation on September 7 (the same week that she learned of his statements).  She says she fully supports Prop 32 and opposes the unions’ efforts to “consolidate their power over choosing City Councilmembers” and other governmental bodies.  She says she is against defined benefit retirement programs and favors defined contribution retirement programs.

8:51 PM: Schott is endorsed by a unanimous voice vote.

Orange City Measure FF

8:51 PM: Villa Park Councilwoman Deborah Pauly speaks of being contacted by numerous Republicans expressing their concerns about Measure FF.  Pauly says the “No on FF” side did not get a chance to speak to the Endorsements Committee.  She says thousands of  Republicans, independents, and Democrats signed a petition to get a referendum to force FF on to the ballot.  She says this is an issue that is divisive to Republicans, and she moves that the Republican Party take no stance on Measure FF.

8:54 PM: Orange Mayor Pro Tem Denis Bilodeau speaks of the landowner wishing to build 36 homes on 50 acres of land on a 4-1 vote, who he notes the 1 is a Democrat who is receiving bundled campaign contributions from “No on FF.”  Bilodeau says it is a property rights issue and makes a substitute motion to endorse Measure FF (reverting to the original recommendation from the Endorsements Committee).

8:57 PM: Marcia Gilchrist speaks in favor of Bilodeau’s substitute motion.  She says the people objecting to the construction of the homes are trying to impeded a property owner from doing what they want with their own land.

8:58 PM: By voice vote, the OC GOP endorses “Yes on Measure FF.”

Fullerton City Council – Jennifer Fitzgerald

9:00 PM: Tim Whitacre moves to not endorse Jennifer Fitzgerald for Fullerton City Council, with Allan Bartlett seconding.  He speaks of Barry Levinson’s efforts on behalf of Fullerton.  He says Levinson is no longer seeking the party endorsement to prevent divisiveness in the OC GOP.  Whitacre provides an email showing Fitzgerald asking Tony Bedolla on behalf of her client (Troy Edgar) to bundle $99 contributions from union members.

9:03 PM: County Supervisor Shawn Nelson speaks of being the only person in the room to face $1.2 million in hostile union IEs.  He speaks of the 2002 successful effort to drive Democrat Jan Flory off the Fullerton City Council, but Flory is running again.  Nelson speaks of her history working for Republicans.  Nelson says he previously supported Levinson, but Levinson has made two unsuccessful bids for Fullerton Council.  He notes a conservative woman has not been elected to the Fullerton City Council since 1986.

9:06 PM: Baugh notes that in the OC GOP union-free pledge, the party welcomes contributions of individual union members but not of the union itself.

9:07 PM: Fullerton Mayor Pro Tem Bruce Whitaker notes that his city has had two recalls in two decades.  He says there is an opportunity for Fullerton right now.  He says he has a bias in favor of activism.  He says Republicans should have bold colors not pale pastels.  Whitaker expresses his concern about her relative lack of public statements on issues other than outsourcing the Fullerton Police Department to the Orange County Sheriff’s Department.  Whitaker urges OC GOP neutrality between Fitzgerald and Levinson.

9:09 PM: My Central Committee member arrives, so my alternate voting power is gone.  I now only wear one hat as your intrepid blogger.

9:10 PM: Mary Young speaks of knowing Fitzgerald for 19 years.  She says if someone is an activist for 17 years but is gone for 2 years, that 2 years of inactivity does not outweigh the 17 years of activism.

9:11 PM: By voice vote, the committee did something.  No one is sure what happened.

9:12 PM: There is now a standing vote.

9:15 PM: The count is 31 people voting in favor of the party being neutral between Fitzgerald and Levinson, and 23 people voting in favor of endorsing Fitzgerald.

There is no endorsement for Fullerton City Council, other than incumbents Bruce Whitaker and Travis Kiger, who were endorsed in August.

Anaheim City Council – Brian Neil Chuchua

9:16 PM: Tim Whitacre moves to endorse Brian Chuchua, with Baron Night seconding.  Whitacre notes Lodge opted to withdraw his own endorsement request.  Whitacre warns of the union’s big push in Anaheim.  He says that Mayor Tom Tait needs all the help he can get.  He says Tait lobbied the party to not endorse Lodge.  Whitacre praises Chuchua as a good conservative who can help Mayor Tait.

9:18 PM: Baugh asks Whitacre if Tait has endorsed Chuchua.

9:18 PM: Whitacre says, “Tait has not yet endorsed Mr. Chuchua at this time.”

9:18 PM: Jon Fleischman says he is uncomfortable voting to endorse Chuchua if Mayor Tait has not endorsed him.  He wants to hear from Mayor Tait.

9:19 PM: Pauly asks for the Endorsements Committee to clarify its rationale against Chuchua.

9:20 PM: Mary Young notes that Chuchua gave money to a Democrat.

9:20 PM: Ray Grangoff express his concern about the lack of the endorsement from Tait.

9:20 PM: Supervisor Shawn Nelson asks who the Democrat was.

9:21 PM: Chuchua says the Democrat was Anaheim City School District Candidate John Santoianni, “a personal friend.”

9:21 PM: Lucille Kring notes that Mayor Tait has only endorsed John Leos so far.  She notes Tait has not endorsed a second candidate.

9:22 PM: Thomas Gordon notes Kring told she’d prefer Chuchua as her Council colleague.

9:22 PM: Tim Whitacre says he has been reimbursed by Chuchua for various expenses related to Chuchua’s campaign.

9:23 PM: There is a standing vote.  There are 29 votes in favor of endorsing Chuchua, and there are 11 votes against endorsing Chuchua.  Chuchua joins Lucille Kring as the OCGOP-endorsed candidates for Anaheim City Council.

Jesse Petrilla Returns

9:26 PM: Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Jesse Petrilla is given a standing ovation after returning within the last week from his service with the Army National Guard in Afghanistan.

Mission Viejo City Council

9:28 PM: Baugh reads the minutes from the Endorsements Committee, though several Central Committee members ask me if Baugh is reading this post since the minutes sounds a lot like OC Political.

9:31 PM: Ray Grangoff speaks of Bucknum’s strong conservative record and property rights record.

9:33 PM: Larry Gilbert brings up various documents and exhibits showing Frank Ury backing Democrat Dave Leckness and Wendy Bucknum with a union-paid sign in her yard, with her support for Leckness and Trish Kelley, neither of whom were endorsed by the OC GOP.  (Scott Voigts says, “Wow” throughout Gilbert’s remarks.)  Gilbert shows a campaign finance report showing Ury linked to Democrats.

9:36 PM: Baugh has to ask Gilbert to leave the stage after Parliamentarian Kermit Marsh repeatedly stated that Gilbert’s time was up.

9:37 PM: Young argues Leckness has a conservative voting record and that activist Shirley Morgan had tried repeatedly to make Leckness re-register as a Republican.  Young asks what in Leckness’s voting record is not conservative.

9:38 PM: Bill Dunlap says the party should not pick between winners and losers because there are two spots and four Republicans seeking the seat.

9:39 PM: In response to an audience question, Baugh notes there are four Republicans among the six candidates.

9:39 PM: Peotter moves for no endorsement in Mission Viejo, and there is a near-unanimous voice vote for the OC GOP to be neutral in Mission Viejo.

Fountain Valley City Council – Steve Nagel

9:40 PM: Nagel endorsed with all but one vote.

Garden Grove City Council – Steve Jones

9:40 PM: Steve Sarkis moves and Denis Bilodeau seconds to endorse Steve Jones for re-election to Garden Grove City Council.

9:41 PM: Tim Whitacre moves to not endorse Jones because Jones has endorsed Democrat Tom Daly for State Assembly.

9:41 PM: Jones denies endorsing Daly.

9:42 PM: Baugh asks if he’s endorsed Republican Assembly Candidate Jose Moreno.

9:42 PM: Jones endorses Moreno on the spot.

9:42 PM: By voice vote, Jones is endorsed unanimously.

Newport Beach City Measure EE

9:44 PM: A representative speaks of a charter commission that amended various charter provisions seeking to update 58 year old language, streamline government, and reduce costs by eliminating class-action lawsuits.

9:47 PM: Scott Peotter blasts the measure’s compensation provisions that legalizes generous salaries and benefits for Councilmembers. He notes the Register opposes EE.

9:49 PM: Miraculously, Deborah Pauly and Jon Flesichman unite to make and second a motion to send Measure EE to the Endorsements Committee in October. The Central Committee applauses stunned that Pauly and Flesichman are united. They vote unanimously to support the Pauly-Fleischman motion.

Tustin City Measure HH

9:50 PM: Doug Davert says Measure HH eliminates Tustin City Council compensation.

9:50 PM: The vote to endorse Measure HH passes unanimously.

Central Committee Business

9:51 PM: Mary Young updates efforts on voter registration, including from Assemblywoman Diane Harkey.

9:53 PM: Norm Dickinson speaks of various bylaw cleanup amendments including conforming ex officio membership requirements to Prop 14.

9:56 PM: The bylaw amendments pass unanimously by voice vote.

9:57 PM: Zonya Townsend presents the Volunteer of the Month Award to Shalon Norman. Various other people make presentations to Norman.

10:03 PM: Parliamentarian Kermit Marsh is pleased to report there have been no ethics complaints so far in 2012. Marsh disputes the election polls, and notes the 21-14 football victory of #21 Stanford over #2 USC.

10:05 PM: There’s a report from Diane Glinchey regarding the Romney campaign efforts in OC and in several swing states.

10:07 PM: Ronea Hart speaks of the Team Santa Ana precinct walk at the Santa Ana GOP GOTV HQ and the Santa Ana TEA Party meeting.

10:08 PM: One speaker notes today is the 225th anniversary of the Constitution.

10:09 PM: Steve Sarkis reports on his discoveries of enormous signs for “No on 32” being delivered to a union hall.

10:09 PM: Mike Munzing plugs his fundraiser for Aliso Viejo Council.

10:10 PM: Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Tony Beall spoke of the GOTV HQ in his area.

10:11 PM: Kermit Marsh wins the raffle after pulling out a huge wad of tickets. He says the key to winning is buying the most tickets. Marsh’s victory is verified, and the meeting adjourns.

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 32 Comments »

AD-69: Anaheim Saved Republican Moreno, Pushed Democrat Perez into Third, Averting Dem vs. Dem Slugfest in November

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 28, 2012

Last week, I blogged two city-by-city breakdowns of the results in two Assembly races.

First up was AD-72, which showed Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) and Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) the top two in four cities, OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley) and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove) the top two in two cities, and Pham and Edgar the top two in Garden Grove.

Next up was AD-74, which showed Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R-Costa Mesa) and Businessman Robert Rush (D-Newport Beach) alternating as first and second place in each city in the district, with the sole exception being Newport Beach, where Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R-Newport Beach) slipped in ahead of Rush but behind Mansoor.

Up today is the final OC Assembly race that featured more than two candidates: AD-69.  First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:

Orange County Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly (D) 10,939 39.2%
Eligibility Technician Jose “Joe” Moreno (R) 5,980 21.4%
Union Leader Julio Perez (D) 5,738 20.6%
Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D) 4,651 16.7%
Businessman Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D) 605 2.2%

So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the four cities of AD-69: Santa Ana, Anaheim, Garden Grove, and Orange.

(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics.  Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-69.  The bulk of Santa Ana and a sliver of Garden Grove are in AD-69 while a sliver of Santa Ana and the bulk of Garden Grove are in AD-72.  A sliver of Orange is in AD-69 but the bulk of it is in AD-68.  Anaheim is divided into nearly even thirds, with the western 1/3 in AD-65, the central 1/3 in AD-69, and the eastern 1/3 in AD-68.)

Daly was consistently first in each city while Barragan was consistently fifth.  Moreno, Perez, and Martinez swapped around for the second, third, and fourth place positions.  The humongous Daly head is indicative of his first place finish in all four cities; taking his head out of the individual cities allows us to more closely examine second and third place, which actually differed in the four cities.  In each individual city, the candidate with the larger head came in second while the candidate with the smaller head came in third:

  • Moreno came in second with Perez third in Anaheim and Garden Grove.
  • Perez came in second with Martinez third in Santa Ana.
  • Moreno came in second with Martinez third in Orange.

Here’s their vote totals broken down visually by city:

Since Daly came in first by such a large margin (indeed, Daly’s Santa Ana total nearly bested everyone else’s districtwide total) and Barragan fell to fifth by such a large margin (Daly’s Garden Grove total outpaced Barragan’s districtwide total), let’s take a closer look with just Moreno, Perez, and Martinez, who were closer together in the results:

It’s clear that without Anaheim, Perez would have made it into the top two and on to November, rather than Moreno.  Moreno’s final vote total was 5,980 while Perez’s was 5,738.  Without Anaheim, Moreno would have had 4,105 while Perez would have had 4,308. (Anaheim gave Moreno 1,875 votes and Perez 1,430 votes, a 445-vote margin).  Perez lost districtwide to Moreno by 242 votes; without Anaheim, Moreno would have lost to Perez by 203 votes.

Anaheim was a crucial stronghold for Moreno, as he came in fourth in Santa Ana but second in Anaheim.

However, with so few cities in AD-69, and Santa Ana such a strong majority of that district (59% of registered voters in AD-69 live in Santa Ana, and 60% of ballots cast in AD-69 were from Santa Ana), it would be more useful to break this result down into regions smaller than cities.  Luckily for this purpose, the City of Santa Ana has Council wards.

Here, the larger head came in first while the smaller head came in second:

  • Daly came in first with Moreno second in Wards 3 and 6.
  • Perez came in first with Daly second in Wards 1 and 4.
  • Perez came in first with Martinez second in Wards 2 and 5 (Martinez represents Ward 2 on the Santa Ana City Council, by the way).

Despite the fact that Perez won four wards and Daly only won two, Daly actually won Santa Ana by a 10% margin.  How?  Well, 48% of registered voters in Santa Ana live in the two wards that Daly won: Wards 3 and 6.  49% of Santa Anans who voted in the AD-69 race live in Wards 3 and 6, so those two wards did not have disproportionate voter turnout – they just have a disproportionate share of the voters to begin with.  A picture is worth a thousand words, so…

The overwhelming majority of Daly and Moreno’s votes in Santa Ana came from Wards 3 and 6, with 59% of Daly’s Santa Ana votes and 66% of Moreno’s Santa Ana votes coming from those two wards.  By contrast, 29% of Perez’s Santa Ana votes and 38% of Martinez’s Santa Ana votes came from those two wards.  Here’s each candidate’s vote totals broken down visually by ward:

Once again, due to Daly’s landslide first-place finish and Barragan’s distant fifth-place finish, let’s take a closer look with just Moreno, Perez, and Martinez, who were closer together in the results:

Perez’s vote totals were fairly evenly spread out across the wards, Martinez got a bump from Ward 3, but Moreno’s performance was very strong in Wards 3 and 6 and disastrous in Wards 2, 4, and 5.

Had Perez done a stronger push in Anaheim or a three-prong strategy in Anaheim, Santa Ana’s Ward 3, and Santa Ana’s Ward 6, there’d be a Democrat vs. Democrat intraparty battle in AD-69 in November between business-backed Tom Daly and union-backed Julio Perez.

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

AD-74’s Surprise Split: Mansoor Wins Three Cities, Rush Wins Other Three Cities, Daigle Second in Hometown But Third in All Other Cities

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 22, 2012

Apologies for the blogcation this week.  We forgot to tell readers we would be taking time off for Day of the Independent Hungary on June 19 and Argentinian Flag Day on June 20.  We were going to celebrate Canadian National Aboriginal Day and Prince William’s 30th birthday on June 21, but then Thomas Gordon blogged about Barack Obama’s assertion of executive privilege à la Richard Nixon.  Now back to the show…

On Monday, I blogged the city-by-city breakdown in AD-72, which showed Mayor Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) and Businessman Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) the top two in four cities, OC Board of Education Member Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley) and Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove) the top two in two cities, and Pham and Edgar the top two in Garden Grove.

Today, we look at the surprise result in AD-74.

First, let’s recall the districtwide numbers:

California State Assemblyman Allan Mansoor (R) 33,319 43.5%
Newport Beach Businessman Robert Rush (D) 25,120 32.8%
Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (R) 18,207 23.8%

So let’s take a look at how the voting broke down in the six cities of AD-74: Newport Beach, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Costa Mesa, Laguna Woods, and Laguna Beach.

74th Assembly District results in each city

(Thanks to Matt Rexroad and Chandra Sharma at Meridian Pacific for the map, which I’ve cropped here and to which I have added graphics.  Note that the population numbers on the map apply to each whole city, not just the portion of the city in AD-74.  Huntington Beach is divided nearly 50/50 between AD-72 and AD-74 while 2/3 of Irvine is in AD-74, with 1/3 of Irvine in AD-68.)

In each city, the candidate with the larger head came in first while the candidate with the smaller head came in second:

  • Rush came in first with Mansoor second in Irvine, Laguna Woods, and Laguna Beach.
  • Mansoor came in first with Rush second in Huntington Beach and Costa Mesa.
  • Mansoor came in first with Daigle second in Newport Beach.

These results were consistent in all six cities across both absentee and poll voters.

Here’s the percentage breakdown by city, with the winner’s percentage in bold and the runner-up in italics:

Mansoor Rush Daigle
Costa Mesa 49.7% 32.1% 18.1%
Huntington Beach 46.2% 29.8% 24.0%
Irvine 37.8% 39.1% 23.1%
Laguna Beach 32.0% 46.6% 21.4%
Laguna Woods 33.8% 45.4% 20.7%
Newport Beach 48.2% 22.1% 29.7%

Now here’s that list of cities by number of voters in AD-74:

  • Newport Beach: Mansoor
  • Huntington Beach: Mansoor
  • Irvine: Rush
  • Costa Mesa: Mansoor
  • Laguna Woods: Rush
  • Laguna Beach: Rush

For our visual learners:

The results show that despite enormous spending on behalf of Daigle by Berkshire Hathaway Heir and Santa Clara County Republican Party Chairman Charles Munger, Jr. (as we blogged about here, here, and here), which eventually totaled well over half a million dollars ($579,040 to be exact), plus another $89,687 in independent expenditures from labor unions, the power of incumbency and grassroots activists enabled Mansoor to overcome the hundreds of thousands of dollars in Bay Area/labor union money spent on behalf of Daigle.  Similarly, the power of party label enabled Rush to overcome the hundreds of thousands of dollars in Bay Area/labor union money spent on behalf of Daigle (much like the power of party label enabled Republican Jose “Joe” Moreno [not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno] to overcome the $246,761 in labor union money spent on behalf of Democrat Julio Perez).

And here’s a quick video courtesy of OC Political Reader and Lake Forest City Council Candidate Dwight Robinson that boils the AD-74 result into a nutshell:

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

How Fast is the Registrar of Voters Counting Ballots? When Will They Finish? Who Will This Affect?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 14, 2012

On Friday evening, there were 17,125 uncounted ballots.

By Monday evening, there were 14,724 uncounted ballots, meaning 2,401 ballots were resolved on Monday.

By Tuesday evening, there were 9,528 uncounted ballots, meaning 5,196 ballots were resolved on Tuesday.

By last night, there were 4,625 uncounted ballots, meaning 4,903 ballots were resolved on Wednesday.

At the rate they’re going, it’s highly likely the Registrar of Voters completes the vote count today.

For visual learners:

There are only a few races that could still be affected by the outstanding ballots.

  • Will Ray Grangoff close his 51-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District?  Will Ken Williams close both his 115-vote deficit to overtake Jeff Lalloway and his 64-vote deficit to overtake Ray Grangroff for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 68th District?
  • Will Bill Dunlap close his 62-vote deficit to overtake John Draper for the last slot on the Republican Central Committee from the 74th District?

Those two races are the only ones in all of Orange County where the gap between the elected and the unelected (or 2nd and 3rd place in those fighting to advance to November from primaries) is 0.3% or less.  It is highly unlikely the 4,625 outstanding ballots would move the needle any more than 0.3%.

There are a couple races where the current leads would be unaffected by the remaining 4,625 ballots, but where the gap could close enough to lead the 3rd or 4th place candidate to pay for a recount to advance to November from the primaries.  (I’m assuming no one’s going to pay for a recount for any party’s Central Committee.)

69th Assembly District
Tom Daly (D) 10,862 39.3%
Jose “Joe” Moreno (R) 5,933 21.5%
Julio Perez (D) 5,649 20.4%
Michele Martinez (D) 4,614 16.7%
Francisco “Paco” Barragan (D) 594 2.1%

Team Perez is likely contemplating whether they’ll pay for a recount if they get within 1% of Jose Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno).  Perez’s allies spent six figures trying to elect him, so the cost of a recount wouldn’t be out of the question for them.

72nd Assembly District
Troy Edgar (R) 17,968 28.0%
Travis Allen (R) 12,726 19.8%
Joe Dovinh (D) 12,353 19.3%
Long Pham (R) 12,325 19.2%
Albert Ayala (D) 8,756 13.7%

Long Pham is likely contemplating if he will pay for a recount if he gets within 0.5% of Travis Allen.  It’s unlikely Joe Dovinh or his team have the financial resources to pay for a recount.  Pham would need to dig into his own pockets for a recount.  He’s already spent $100,000 of his personal funds on his campaign and making 2nd place to get to the November general election against Troy Edgar may be the only way he recoups that $100,000.

The 1% for Perez vs. the 0.5% for Pham is on the basis that Perez would be more aggressive than Pham in pursuing a recount, as Perez’s allies spent more and have deeper pockets to pay for a recount while Pham spent less and has more shallow (less deep?) pockets.

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, Orange County, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

AD-69: Traditional D vs. R Match-Up in Daly vs. Moreno; Martinez Plays Spoiler for Perez

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 13, 2012

On Monday, I took a look at AD-72, and in this post, I’ll be looking at another of OC’s multi-candidate Assembly races that has now narrowed down to two: AD-69.

Conventional wisdom held that if any OC district was going to feature an intraparty battle in November (courtesy of Prop 14), it was going to be the Republicans in AD-74 between Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle or the Democrats in AD-69 between OC Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly and either labor leader Julio Perez or Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez.  (Unexpectedly, it was AD-72 that created OC’s sole intraparty battle with an all-Republican November matchup between Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.)

AD-69 will come down to Daly and Republican OC Eligibility Technician Jose “Joe” Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose F. Moreno).

We here at OC Political predicted Daly vs. Moreno here, here, and here. (While we made several predictions that went wrong [like nearly everybody else, we failed to predict Edgar vs. Allen in AD-72], we’ve been consistent in predicting Daly 1st and Moreno 2nd in AD-69.)

This race was incredibly evenly divided.  Daly was far and away the top vote-getter, getting nearly double the number of votes of the second-place candidate.

Tom Daly 10,724 39.6%
Jose “Joe” Moreno 5,843 21.6%
Julio Perez 5,440 20.1%
Michele Martinez 4,506 16.6%
Francisco “Paco” Barragan 577 2.1%

Some readers may be wondering if Perez could still catch Moreno with the remaining uncounted ballots.   There just aren’t enough out there. 27,090 out of the 417,965 ballots counted in Orange County so far cast votes in AD-69, which equals 6.5% of the votes.  There are 9,528 uncounted ballots remaining in Orange County, which leaves approximately 619 votes remaining in AD-69.  To make up his current 403-vote deficit, Perez would need to be ahead of Moreno by 65.1%.  If Moreno captures 10% of the vote, that would require Perez get 75.1%, leaving just 14.9% to be split between Daly, Martinez, and Barragan.  Let’s say AD-69 has a disproportionate share of the outstanding ballots, and double that to 1,238 ballots remaining in AD-69, Perez would need to be ahead of Moreno by 32.6%.  That is a tough margin for Perez.  If Moreno captures 10% of the vote, that would require Perez get 42.6%, leaving just 47.4% to be split between Daly, Martinez, and Barragan.

It’s clear from the results that Martinez was Perez’s spoiler.  If just 10% of Martinez’s votes had gone to Perez, he would have surpassed Moreno and advanced to a run-off against Daly.  Martinez and Perez were clearly the liberal Democrats in the race, with Daly and Barragan the more moderate Democrats, and Moreno was the Republican.  The lion’s share of Martinez’s votes would have gone to Perez.

It’s now clear that without Michele Martinez in the race, union-backed Democrat Julio Perez would have advanced to the November run-off against business-backed Democrat Tom Daly.

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments »