OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Posts Tagged ‘Ed Royce’

Poll Results in CD 45: Spitzer Is The Frontrunner

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on July 2, 2013

This morning Jon Fleischman posted the results of a poll conducted by Lewis Consulting Group, that showed the favorables/unfavorables of some potential candidates along with results of some hypothetical matches. The results were not what I expected to see, with what appears to be a wide open race amongst a few front-runners. I talked to John Lewis this morning after the poll was released and he had this to say, “The goal with this poll was to try and best replicate predicted 2014 turnout. This is clearly a wide open race and results will largely depend on who decides to run.”

200px-Spitzer_portrait_wiki
You can view the entire poll by clicking CD45-Crosstab-Tables-I.

Lets start by taking a look at the raw numbers for favorables vs unfavorables for each candidate in the running, in order to use a single number to represent favorability, I am taking the percentage that represents favorables and subtracting the percentage that represents unfavorables in order to create a net favorability ranking system. Here are the rankings based 0n this net favorability:

(R) Todd Spitzer +25% (OC Supervisor)
(R) Ed Royce +20% (Congressman)
(D) Sukhee Kang +13% (Former Irvine Mayor)
(R) Mimi Walter +13% (State Senator)
(D) Steve Young +12%  (Perennial Dem Candidate)
(R) Gary Miller +10% (Congressman)
(R) Don Wagner +10% (State Assemblyman)
(R) Scott Baugh +8% (Chairman of OCGOP)
(D) Beth Krom +4%
(D) Barack Obama -28% (This was simply his approval rating, I am fairly certain he has no intention of seeking this seat)

The fact that Todd Spitzer had the highest net favorability was not especially surprising to me because a lot of my non-political friends are aware of some of his public safety initiatives that he has worked on. I am most surprised by Steve Young having a 12% net favorability rating, although my instinct states that perhaps some football fans got confused on this one.

This data does not also take into account that some other potential candidates are looming out there, including but not limited to Steven Choi (Current Irvine Mayor), John Moorlach (OC Supervisor), and some of the wealthy private sector individuals that could self-fund a campaign. On the Dem side I hear rumblings of Irvine Councilmember Larry Agran jumping into this race and I would argue that he would be the Democrat most likely to advance to November.

My favorite part of the poll was the hypothetical match-ups that were polled including the following scenarios:

Mimi Walters vs. Gary Miller vs. Beth Krom

Walters 25.0%
Krom 21.3%
Miller 21.0%

This matchup is interesting because Walters is definitely in this race and I have heard from more than a couple of insiders that Gary Miller is strongly considering a move back to Orange County to run for this seat due to the fact that his current seat is one that could very easily go blue in 2016. A 4% gap is not very hard to overcome especially when you consider margin of error of any poll.

Mimi Walters vs. Ed Royce vs. Beth Krom

Royce 25.7%
Krom 22.3%
Walters 20.3%

I am not surprised that Royce is leading in this matchup due to the fact that he is a sitting Congressman who has higher name ID than Gary Miller in Orange County. The surprising part is that Walters is within striking distance of him and could beat him in a head-to-head matchup.

Mimi Walters vs. Todd Spitzer vs. Beth Krom

Spitzer 29.0%
Krom 22.0%
Walters 19.7%

Wow!!!!! This result on its own shows me that Todd Spitzer can have this seat if he wants it.

Mimi Walters vs. Ed Royce vs. Beth Krom

Walters 26.7%
Krom 23.0%
Wagner 15.7%

Don Wagner is my personal favorite of all the candidates considered in this poll but these numbers look to be a steep hill to climb in a hypothetical matchup that includes Walters.

Mimi Walters vs. Steve Young vs. Beth Krom vs. Sukhee Kang

Walters 41.0%
Krom 10.3%
Young 8.7%
Kang 7.3%

These numbers show that a Democrat winning this seat is highly unlikely. I believe that Larry Agran would be able to finish ahead of all of the rest of these folks in CD 45 on the Dem side.

Posted in 45th Congressional District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments »

OC Reps. Have Rank To Demand Benghazi Answers

Posted by Erich Breitenbucher on May 14, 2013

When I requested blog privileges, I really thought I was going to focus on education and waste in California state government.  But these Benghazi hearings have got me so upset I just felt like I needed to start with the hot topic of the day.  Especially because it’s not being treated like the hot topic of the day. Let’s face it.  It is really the most important issue we’ve had in decades.  And here is why, Hillary.  It matters because if people were incompetent and Navy SEALs ambassadors died – we need those mistakes corrected. If security was ignored to achieve political goals and lies were told to cover up the mistakes – those people need to be thrown out of government for good.

And here in Orange County we have several members of Congress who are in a unique position to get answers on many of these questions.

Chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, Republican Congressman Darrell Issa

San Clemente, Dana Point, San Juan Capistrano, Coto de Caza and Ladera Ranch Congressman Darrell Issa is, of course, the central Republican figure in the investigation as the Chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Previously, Issa served on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and the Foreign Affairs Committee.  Issa knows his stuff.

Loretta-Sanchez-w_VeteransRanking Member on the House Armed Services Committee Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee, Democrat Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez

Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez is always happy to tell you how she’s the highest ranking female of the Armed Services Committee. Loretta Sanchez is not only on the House Armed Services Committee, she is the Ranking Member on the House Armed Services Committee Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee and she is on the House Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Strategic Forces.  Loretta Sanchez is also on the Committee on Homeland Security and on the Committee on Homeland Security Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence.  Rep. Sanchez brags that she founded and chairs the Congressional Caucus on Women in the Military and serves on the Congressional Military Families Caucus.  She couldn’t be in a better position to get real answers on who is responsible for the Benghazi cover-up.

Alan-Lowenthal-w_VeteransHouse Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade member, Democrat Congressman Alan Lowenthal

Congressman Alan Lowenthal is a member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, where he sits on the Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats.  He also is a member of the Veterans Jobs Caucus.  Every veteran that shows up for an Alan Lowenthal job fair should demand answers for their fellow Americans killed and put in harms way at the Benghazi consulate on September 11, 2012.

Senior member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs and Chairman of the Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia and Emerging Threats, Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher

Congressman Rohrabacher is a senior member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. He serves as Chairman of the Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia and Emerging Threats and as a member of the Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and the Global Environment.

Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Republican Congressman Ed Royce

Representative Ed Royce became the Chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs in January 2013.  He is serving his 11th term in Congress, representing Southern California’s 39th district.  As a longtime active member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Royce is known for his knowledge of many different regions of the world and analytical foresight into key U.S. foreign policy issues. Immediately prior to becoming Chairman of the Committee, Royce served as Chairman of the Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade and a member of the Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific.

OC Congressman John Campbell is known more for his expertise on finance than National Security, but if any funding is blocked for departments that are stonewalling on Benghazi answers (hypothetically of course,) I’m sure Campbell wouldn’t hesitate to participate as a Republican member of the House Committee on the Budget.

And lastly for Orange County, is Loretta Sanchez’s sister, Linda.  No one trusts Democrat Congresswoman Linda Sanchez near anything important, but she could show an interest as a member of the Congressional Victim’s Rights Caucus.

And as we look to our neighbors in Riverside County, I’m sure we can count on diligent support of our military from Congressman Ken Calvert.  But how will freshman Democrat Congressmen Mark Takano and Raul Ruiz react?  Will they help deflect attention from the real questions or will they demand an open and honest government that lives up to its hype as the “most transparent?”  Let’s look at the Riverside County Congressional representatives’ committee memberships.

Riverside County Republican Congressman Ken Calvert

Rep. Calvert serves on the House Committee on Appropriations and is a member of the Subcommittees on Defense; Interior and the Environment; and Energy and Water.  Rep. Calvert also serves on the House Committee on the Budget.

Riverside County Democrat Congressman Mark Takano

Not even one year into his first year in Congress, Mark Takano serves on the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs and his website says that “Securing our nation from foreign threats, including terrorism, must be a priority of Congress. It is critical that our military personnel have the equipment, resources, and support they need to protect this country.”  Does 20 hours for jet fuel to send in a rescue team sound to you like we “have the equipment, resources, and support they need to protect this country” ?  Me neither.

and lastly…

Riverside County Freshman Democrat Raul Ruiz

Dr. Ruiz currently serves on the House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs.  Maybe as a doctor himself, Ruiz can find an interest in answering if local Democrat Congressmen even care that our Ambassador died in a Benghazi hospital controlled by Al Queda? (And that they used him as bait to try and kill more Americans?)

Even though the Los Angeles/Orange County local television coverage of the Benghazi hearings has been as lacking and nonexistent as the national coverage of the Benghazi hearing, these lies are eventually going to exposed to the public – as long as we keep asking questions.  The questions are too big and the consequences have been too horrible to ignore forever.  We will really see which of the Democrats are liberals which of the Democrats are just partisan liars.  I hope to track on this blog the lies told by the Orange County Democrat Members of Congress to cover-up Benghazi.  I also hope to track on this blog which Democrats are willing to be honest about mistakes made and inconvenient truths that need to be told.

How long does it take to get jet fuel in southern Europe or North Africa? And what efforts were made to ask other counties for assistance? Did Hillary change the security level at the Benghazi consulate?  If the CIA talking points on the day of the attack, had only an attack and Al Queda mentioned, but no protest in Benghazi or video, why did both President Obama and Hillary tell Pat Smith (the mother of Sean Smith, killed in Benghazi) 3 days later that the reason for the attack was the video?Image

Pat Smith told FoxNews on May 13 that Obama, Hillary, Panetta and Susan Rice all hugged her and told her “Face to face, nose to nose” that the video was to blame for he son’s death.  We now know, that the President, Hillary, Panetta  and Rice all knew that this was not true – and they lied to the face of a mother who had lost her son.  Every political activist that wants to honor the memory of Sean Smith in the appropriate way that the President, Hillary, Panetta  and Rice will not, by finding out the truth, need to pull out your iPhone at the next community coffee or town hall and ask one of these tough questions.  Post the answers on YouTube.  Eventually Democrats will have to admit so many facts that are damaging to the above mentioned 4 officials that they will start to denounce the actions and call for their removal.  Or the local Democrats will lie and cover up and the mountain of evidence on YouTube and social media will force them to go down with the Obama/Hillary ship on this series of poor security decisions and lies.

But if Jay Carney thinks we will forget about this story as just old news, I can assure you that we will NEVER FORGET.  Let’s roll.  We have some tracking to do…

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Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Forgot Some Electeds: Party Affiliation Part 2

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on March 23, 2013

A reader just sent me a new database that included some elected officials that I forgot about the first time around. These offices would be Congress, Senate, and Assembly which I cannot believe I forgot. Take a look at the short but informative database of these elected officials that represent at least a portion of Orange County.

IntraPartyElephantDonkey

Here you go:

Office Name Party Year

Congress

UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 38th DISTRICT Linda Sanchez (D) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 39th DISTRICT Ed Royce (R) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 45th DISTRICT John Campbell (R) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 46th DISTRICT Loretta Sanchez (D) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 47th DISTRICT Alan Lowenthal (D) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 48th DISTRICT Dana Rohrabacher (R) 2014
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 49th DISTRICT Darrell Issa (R) 2014

Senate

STATE SENATE 29th DISTRICT Bob Huff (R) 2016
STATE SENATE 30th DISTRICT Ron Calderon (D) 2014
STATE SENATE 34th DISTRICT Lou Correa (D) 2014
STATE SENATE 36th DISTRICT Mark Wyland (R) 2014
STATE SENATE 37th DISTRICT Mimi Walters (R) 2016

Assembly

STATE ASSEMBLY 55th DISTRICT Curt Hagman (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 65th DISTRICT Sharon Quirk-Silva (D) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 68th DISTRICT Don Wagner (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 69th DISTRICT Tom Daly (D) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 72nd DISTRICT Travis Allen (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 73rd DISTRICT Diane Harkey (R) 2014
STATE ASSEMBLY 74th DISTRICT Allan Mansoor (R) 2014

Posted in 29th Senate District, 34th Senate District, 36th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, State Assembly, State Senate | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

OC’s New Republican Congressmen Vote 3-1 Against Fiscal Cliff Deal; Old Ones Voted 3-2 in Favor

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 3, 2013

In a far-too-brief summary of the fiscal cliff deal: income taxes increased on people making more than $400,000 (couples over $450,000), tax deductions phase out for individuals making more than $250,000 (couples over $300,000), payroll taxes increased on people making more than $50,000, the death tax was increased from 35% for estates over $5.12 million to 40% for estates over $5 million, the Earned Income Tax Credit was expanded, college tuition tax credits were extended for five years, and federal unemployment benefits were extended for a year.

The vote on the fiscal cliff provides an interesting illustration of the impact of redistricting on Orange County’s Congressional representation.

fiscalcliffolddist

How the Representatives of the Old Congressional Districts Voted on the Fiscal Cliff Deal

fiscalcliffvotes

How the Representatives of the New Congressional Districts Voted on the Fiscal Cliff Deal

The old OC delegation voted 5-2 in favor of the fiscal cliff deal while the new OC delegation voted 4-3 against the fiscal cliff deal, with the new 8th member not yet seated.

More interestingly, the old districts had Republicans 3-2 in favor of the deal with the Democrats at 1-0 while the new districts have Republicans 3-1 against the deal with the Democrats at 2-0.

Ed Royce (R-Fullerton), Linda Sanchez (D-Cerritos), and Loretta Sanchez (D-Santa Ana) voted in favor of the fiscal cliff deal.

John Campbell (R-Irvine), Darrell Issa (R-Vista), and Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) voted against the fiscal cliff deal.

(Newly Elected Congressman Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach) will not take take office until later this morning.)

Congressmen Gary Miller (R-Diamond Bar) and Ken Calvert (R-Corona) represented portions of Orange County until yesterday but now represent exclusively Inland Empire districts.  Miller and Calvert both voted for the fiscal cliff deal.

Posted in 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, National | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Greg Diamond Says He’s Running For Congress, Gets Assistance From Fly By Night Karma Repair, And Pays 20% Fundraising Commission To Household Member For Out-Of-District Funds

Posted by Lassie on November 5, 2012

Greg Diamond

Greg Diamond

In his July, August, September campaign finance report, Democrat Senate candidate Greg Diamond raised $2,560 for the period, and he paid $500 to a fundraising consultant.  Why would anyone pay a 20% fundraising commission when the normal commission is 10%-15%?

Maybe it’s because he’s paying it to a person who lives in his house.

That’s right, Greg Diamond campaign donors, you’re contributing to a campaign who’s sending money straight into the candidate’s household’s pockets.

Although since his donors are largely from outside the district, I guess they wouldn’t really notice.  Of his $1640 itemized contributions, there is exactly one from the 29th Senate District: $100 contribution from former Assembly Democrat Sacrificial Lamb John MacMurray.  Even widening the net to all of California south of San Francisco, there’s only two more: a $50 contribution from Garden Grove and a $25 contribution from Glendale.  All of California only adds one more $250 contribution from El Cerrito (north of Berkeley) from the CEO of Fly by Night Karma Repair.  Yes, he’s reporting $250 from the CEO of something called “Fly by Night Karma Repair.”

His contributions are from so far out of the district that he even got $500 from a foreign country.  Weirdly, that’s the same amount he paid to the fundraising consultant living in his house.

Diamond opposes Proposition 35, which according to its official summary on the ballot, “Increases prison sentences and fines for human trafficking convictions. Requires convicted human traffickers to register as sex offenders. Requires registered sex offenders to disclose Internet activities and identities.”

Of course, I should note that it could be that the donors didn’t know what office Diamond was running for.  I’m not sure he does either.  Check out his web site’s “About Why I’m Running” page at http://www.gregdiamond2012.com/aboutwhyirun, where Diamond says, “I decided to run for Congress because, among the people in the Occupy movement here, I’m among those who could most easily be considered a credible potential candidate.”  There is so much silliness in that one sentence.

I wonder how Ed Royce and Jay Chen feel about Diamond’s Congressional campaign.

Posted in 29th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »

CD-39: Royce, Chen, and Chen SuperPAC Spend $2.7 Million or How My Father Received Over 41 Feet of Mail

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 2, 2012

Jay Chen & Ed Royce

Democrat Jay Chen is challenging Republican Representative Ed Royce

151,311 voters live in the City of Anaheim: 10,196 voters live in Ed Royce’s 39th Congressional District, 27,431 live in John Campbell’s 45th Congressional District, and 113,684 live in Loretta Sanchez’s 46th Congressional District.  You’ve seen Emami’s endless mail count on the Anaheim City Council race, but he has the good fortune to be one of the 27,431 Anaheim voters in CD-45.  This is a tale of the mailboxes for the 10,196 Anaheim voters in CD-39.

(For those of you wondering, Gail Eastman lives in Sanchez’s CD-46, Harry Sidhu lives in Royce’s CD-39, and Lorri Galloway, Kris Murray, and Tom Tait live in Campbell’s CD-45.  For those of you wondering for even more info, Steve Chavez Lodge lives in Campbell’s CD-45 while Lucille Kring, John Leos, and Jordan Brandman all live in Sanchez’s CD-46.)

Before I get into the mail, I should note there are precinct walkers and phone bankers from both camps scurrying and calling across CD-39.

An OC Political friend passed on a transcript he made of a phone call he received from the Jay Chen campaign in October.  The content of this script is clearly geared toward Republicans, and the OC Political friend who transcribed this call is a high-propensity Republican in a pure Republican household.

Here’s the transcript…

Hi.  Good afternoon.  My name is Andrew and I am a volunteer with the Jay Chen for Congress Campaign.

I’m calling you today to tell you a little bit about Jay and about his campaign for congress in your district.

Jay is a small businessman, a school board member and US Naval Reserves intelligence officer who is running to represent you in Congress.

Unlike his opponent, Ed Royce, Jay volunteered to serve our country and he will protect our veterans when they come home.

Jay was recruited right out of Harvard University to work for Bain and Company, a section of the successful Bain Capital, and he has valuable experience balancing the books and improving results without raising taxes.

Jay is clearly the right person to serve this district in Washington.  For more information about Jay or our campaign, please visit our website at chenforcongress.com.  And since you are registered to vote by mail your ballots will be arriving around October 8th.  Please remember to vote and sent them back in.

Thank you for very much your time and I hope you vote for Jay in the upcoming November election.

Here’s an excerpt from Chen’s 2011 school board re-election campaign biography:

In 2002 Jay joined Bain & Company, a global business consulting firm. While at Bain he worked closely with top executives of Fortune 500 companies to develop and implement crucial business strategies. He managed the roll-out and evaluation of new products for a global logistics company and analyzed the cost-savings for a mergers and acquisition in the technology space with a combined value of over $1 billion. Jay believes his financial and business experience will be of great value to the school board, which manages an operating budget of over $360 million dollars and nearly 3000 employees.

Anyone else find it fun that Democrat Jay Chen is touting his Bain experience while Republican Mitt Romney is getting trashed for his Bain experienced by national Democrats?

Now, on to the money: From July 1 to October 17, Royce spent $1,232,479 while Chen spent $406,351.  However, Super PAC America Shining (run by Chen’s brother) has spent $762,316, with $65,894 supporting Chen and $696,162 against Royce.

In other words, between America Shining and Jay Chen, the pro-Chen/anti-Royce spending since July 1 has reached $1,458,478 while Ed Royce has spent $1,232,479.

For both candidates, over 60% of their direct contributions came from individual citizens.  However, if you account for America Shining, the pro-Chen/anti-Royce money received has been 52% from PACs, and 33% from individual citizens, while pro-Royce/anti-Chen money that’s been received is 62% from individual citizens and 36% from PACs.

While Emami religiously scans each piece of mail that falls into his hand, I’m just going to take a picture of all the mail.  For my father, who is likely in the most coveted demographic group in all of CD-39 (high-propensity Asian independent), this is what $2.7 million of campaign spending looks like:

35 Pieces of CD-39 Mail

My poor father was inundated with CD-39 mail

He’s received 36 mailers, and there’s still three more mailing days before Election Day (today, tomorrow, and Monday).  I “only” received 15 mailers, and my Republican mother “only” received 8 mailers.  Inexplicably, my independent sister only got 1 mailer (it was pro-Royce).

I should note my 52-year-old father was not pleased to receive the America Shining piece entitled, “Senior News.”

Here are other ways to look at the 36 mailers sent to Dad:

  • Stacked on top of each other, they are 1/2 inch thick.
  • They weigh a combined 1 lb. 7 oz.
  • Laid end to end, they are 41 feet, 3 inches long.

They have achieved near-perfect parity in Dad’s collection:

  • 18 from Royce’s side, 18 from Chen’s side
  • 6 pro-Royce, 4 pro-Chen
  • 12 anti-Chen, 14 anti-Royce

From my father’s mail: For every pro-Royce, there were exactly two anti-Chen pieces.  For every pro-Chen piece, there were more than three anti-Royce pieces.  While both sides have sent virtually the same amount of mail and both have been pretty negative, Chen’s side has sent out more negative mail and less positive mail than Royce’s side.

Apparently, as registered Republicans, my mother and I were each ignored by Chen.  All 15 of my mailers and all 8 of hers were from Royce.  I received 6 pro-Royce and 9 anti-Chen.  Mom received 2 pro-Royce and 6 anti-Chen.

The anti-Chen pieces are making an impact on regular voters: one of my mother’s co-workers dislikes Chen because he seems so creepy because he’s always behind sunglasses in his pictures.  None of Chen’s photos have him behind sunglasses, except the one being used on Royce’s anti-Chen pieces.

In CD-39, postal workers and mailhouses are getting together to throw a big party about the post offices saved from closure and the mailhouses’ unexpected 2012 profits, but somewhere, there’s an environmentalist crying about the forests that Chen and Royce destroyed.

On a final note, my father’s siding with the family Republicans: Dad’s voting for Royce.

Posted in 39th Congressional District, Fundraising, Mail | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

2012 General Election Predictions: 39th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on September 10, 2012

The 39th Congressional District is another one that is not going to be a very close race. The map on this one will show you a seat split between Orange County, Los Angeles County, and San Bernardino County.  Here is the map:

Thank you to the good people at Meridian-Pacific for the use of the map.

The results from the primary are also a pretty one-sided victory as you can see from the results it was a big victory for Ed Royce:

United States Representative; District 39

  • Ed Royce, Republican ………. 62,874 votes 66.3%
  • Jay Chen, Democratic ………. 28,457 votes 30.0%
  • D’Marie Mulattieri ………. 3,561 votes 3.8%

Any time that you can achieve a 2/3 vote in a primary election (open primary) it is a virtual guarantee that you will win in November.

Republican registration is just 41% with the Democrats not that far behind at 32.7%. However the 22.3% of DTS voters are leaning pretty far to the right. This is why Royce ran over 20 points higher than Republican registration. Jay Chen  was a huge disappointment finishing 2% below Democratic registration.

Royce also has the advantage of having a $2,000,000 campaign account to help him if he feels that he needs it. I would be shocked if he dips into this to a great extent. Jay Chen is not doing poorly for a candidate in this race with a $350,000 cash on hand total after June 30th, but it will take a lot more than that to defeat Royce.

Another factor is the map of the district geographically where Royce has extremely high name ID in Orange County which makes up the majority of the district. In fact Fullerton which is the home town of Royce is the largest city in the 39th Congressional District.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the winner will be:

Ed Royce

Posted in 39th Congressional District | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

Leading Assembly Democrat Headlines Norby Fundraiser

Posted by Chris Nguyen on August 15, 2012

Isadore Hall III (D-Compton), Speaker at Fundraiser for Chris Norby (R-Fullerton)

Isadore Hall III (D-Compton), Speaker at Fundraiser for Chris Norby (R-Fullerton)

An invitation to Assemblyman Chris Norby’s fundraiser for the 65th Assembly District came in a while ago.  It is called the “Day at the Races” fundraiser on Friday, August 17 from 5:30 PM – 8:00 PM.  I was surprised to learn that the Los Alamitos Race Track isn’t in Los Alamitos, it’s in Cypress (in the 65th district).  The 65th District is Anaheim, Buena Park, Cypress, Fullerton, La Palma, and Stanton.

I saw the main speakers headlining the fundraiser were Congressman Ed Royce, Assemblyman Isadore Hall III, and Assemblyman Brian Nestande.  Royce is the Congressman who covers most of Norby’s district.  Nestande is a Riverside Republican.  But Hall is a Compton Democrat!

I looked Hall and Nestande up since neither one of them is an OC guy, and I saw they are the Chair and Vice Chair of the Assembly Governmental Organization Committee.  That boring-sounding committee is immensely powerfull, with power over “alcohol, Indian gaming, horseracing, gambling, tobacco, public records, open meetings laws, state holidays, outdoor advertising and emergency services/natural disasters.”  If I remember my PoliSci classes right, this is one of the “juice” committees, so the Chair and Vice Chair of a “juice” committee are headlining the Norby fundraiser.

As Chair of the Governmental Organization Committee, Hall is one of the most powerful Democrats in the State Assembly.  What a slap in the face to Sharon Quirk-Silva!  She isn’t endorsed by the Speaker or the Assembly Majority Leader either.  It looks like the Democrat leadership is abandoning Quirk-Silva.  Norby’s endorsed by every Republican in the Assembly and Senate.

It’s not just Sacramento either, look at Orange County: Quirk-Silva has four current Councilmembers in the entire 65th District.  Norby has every 65th District Mayor not named Quirk-Silva, even Stanton Democrat Carol Warren.   Norby has every Mayor Pro Tem in AD-65.  Quirk-Silva and Norby each have half of tiny La Palma (Norby has Mayor Henry Charoen and Mayor Pro Tem Steve Hwangbo while Quirk-Silva has Councilmen Ralph Rodriguez and Steve Shanahan; anybody know where Councilman Mark Waldman stands?).  Other than La Palma, Norby is endorsed by the majority of every City Council in AD-65.

Here are the endorsement lists from their web sites.

Quirk-Silva Endorsements: http://www.sharonquirksilva.com/endorse/endorsements

Norby Endorsements: http://www.chrisnorby.com/endorsements/

Here’s the fundaiser info.

“Day at the Races” Reception for Assemblyman Chris Norby
Keynote Speakers: U.S. Representative Ed Royce (R-Fullerton), Assemblyman Isadore Hall III (D-Compton), and Assemblyman Brian Nestande (R-Palm Desert)
Friday, August 17
5:30 PM-8:00 PM

Los Alamitos Race Track
4961 Katella Ave.
Cypress, CA 90720

Posted in 65th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Atlas PAC May 2012 Newsletter & Voter Guide

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 18, 2012

This came over the wire from Atlas PAC on Wednesday (and was re-sent to us by a helpful reader yesterday)…

Atlas PAC Newsletter & Voter Guide   May 16, 2012 
In This Issue
Calendar of Events
Candidate Forum Photos
Stop the Special Interest Money Now Event
June Primary Voter Guide
Atlas PAC Director Featured on Rick Reiff’s Show

Calendar of Events

Stop the Special Interest Money Now Reception

May 23, 2012

Irvine, CA

Del Mar Day at the Races

July 28, 2012

San Diego, CA

The Atlas PAC Board
Lee M. Lowrey
ChairmanChandra Chell
Vice ChairmanDave BartelsJohn Draper

Mary DreyerKurt English
Kathryn FeatherJoe Ludlow

Jeff Mathews

Walter Myers III

Ben Pugh

Stephanie Olsen

Sarah Soss

Mike Tripp

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 Dear,

With the June Primary Election just around the corner, Atlas PAC has updated our list of endorsed candidates for local, state and national elected office.  As always, we will continue to present to our membership candidates that practice our core values of limited government, free market, low taxation, and individual liberty.
Join us this month as we host a fundraising reception for the Stop the Special Interest Money Now Initiative featuring columnist Steve Greenhut and Chapman Law School Professor John Eastman.    Please mark your calendar for our upcoming events and we hope to see you soon.

Atlas PAC Mission Statement

The Atlas PAC mission is to create an environment of business professionals that believe in the ideals of limited government, free market enterprise, low taxation, and individual liberty to associate, network, and socialize with like-minded individuals. Through this association, the Atlas PAC supports like-minded candidates and issues through its monetary and political support.

StopSpecialInterest v4A

June Primary Voter Guide
National Ted Cruz – U.S. Senate, TXJeff Flake – U.S. Senate, AZ

George Allen – U.S. Senate, VA

Josh Mandell – U.S. Senate, OH

Richard Mourdock – U.S. Senate, IN

Jason Chaffetz – US Congress, UT

Eric Cantor – US Congress, VA

Paul Ryan – US Congress, WI

Allen West – US Congress, FL

Michele Bachmann – US Congress, MN

California

 

Tom McClintock – U.S. Congress District 4

Tony Strickland – U.S. Congress District 26

Ed Royce – U.S. Congress District 39

John Webb – US Congress District 45

Jerry Hayden – US Congress District 46

Gary DeLong – US Congress District 47

Dana Rohrabacher – US Congress District 48

Darrell Issa – US Congress District 49

Duncan Hunter, Jr. – US Congress District 50

Bill Emerson – State Senate District 23

Bob Huff – State Senate District 29

Jeff Miller – State Senate District 31

Mimi Walters – State Senate District 37

Tim Donnelly – State Assembly District 33

Mike Morrell – State Assembly District 40

Curt Hagman – State Assembly District 55

Eric Linder – State Assembly District 60

Joe Ludwig – State Assembly District 61

Chris Norby – State Assembly District 65

Craig Huey – State Assembly District 66

Phil Paule – State Assembly District 67

Don Wagner – State Assembly District 68

Diane Harkey – State Assembly District 73

Allan Mansoor – State Assembly District 74

Rocky Chavez – State Assembly District 76

Carl DeMaio – San Diego Mayor

Proposition 28 – No

Proposition 29 – No

Orange County   

Janet Nguyen – OC Supervisor, District 1

Robert Hammond– Orange County Board of Education, Area 1
Ken Williams– Orange County Board of Education, Area 3
Greg Sebourn – Fullerton City Council

Ethan Temianka – Mesa Water District

Orange County Republican Party Central Committee

55th AD – Tim Shaw, Jim Domen, Desare Ferraro

65th AD – Baron Night, Shawn Nelson, Greg Sebourn, Steve Hwangbo, Henry Charoen, Pat Shuff

68th AD – Jon Dumitru, Ken Williams, Lynn Schott, Walter Myers III, Mark Bucher, Denis Bilodeau

69th AD – Thomas Gordon, Charles Hart, Robert Hammond, Lupe Moreno, Cuong Sinh Cao

72nd AD – Janet Nguyen, Dean Grose, Matthew Harper, Mark McCurdy, Dennis Catron, John Briscoe

73rd AD – Chandra Chell, Mike Munzing, Mary Young, Tony Beall, Linda Barnes, Greg Woodard, Jon Fleischman

74th AD – Pick among the following:  John Draper, Jeff Mathews, Allan Bartlett, John Warner, Bill Dunlap, Scott Baugh, Scott Peotter, Rhonda Rohrabacher, Emily Sanford, Christina Shea, Don Hansen, T.J. Fuentes

Atlas PAC Director Featured on Rick Reiff’s SoCal Insider Show
Walter Myers III Participates in Occupy Vs. Tea Party Debate
walter - rick reiff show
Click to watch video
Atlas PAC Director Walter Myers III debates with an Occupy Los Angeles activist.  Watch as they discuss what their protest movements represent as well as their respective sides’ take on taxes, government, and capitalism.  Decide for yourself who the clear winner is for this debate.
About Atlas PAC

Atlas is a politically based membership organization made up of business, political, and community professionals who share a passion for free enterprise, limited government, reduced government regulatory burdens, low taxation, and individual liberty. Atlas furthers its ideals by funding candidates and causes who aggressively advocate the values of Atlas.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Fullerton, Mesa Consolidated Water District, Orange County Board of Education, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

CD-39: Ed Royce in the Mail

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 30, 2012

Excluding the Anaheim TOT mail (which has nothing to do with the June election), I received my third mailer of the primary election cycle on Saturday.  The first mailer was from Congressman Ed Royce’s campaign on April 4, and the second one was from Todd Spitzer’s campaign for the Third Supervisorial District on April 19.  This April 28 mailer is the second I’ve received from Royce’s campaign, and the third from any campaign this cycle.  The piece emphasizes economic themes.

The exterior portion of the piece on the address/postage side reads, “Rep. Ed Royce is Working to Grow Our Economy and Create Jobs!” along with Royce’s logo and web site – this basically has his name in huge type thrice as a way to reinforce name ID even among voters who won’t open/read the piece.  The other side of the exterior portion has various “Now Hiring” signs and a “Help Wanted” sign, along with “Rep. Ed Royce is working to see signs like this go up all over Southern California once again!”  Royce’s name is in large type and in a different color, again reinforcing his name ID even among voters who won’t open/read the piece and who received the piece in the mail with the address/postage side face down.

The interior portion discusses the “Royce Plan” to create more jobs.  There are four bullet points for the Royce Plan:

  • “Slash our skyrocketing national debt.”
  • “Increase domestic energy supply.”
  • “Lower fees on small and medium size businesses,”
  • “Cut Washington’s red tape.”

The interior also highlights a Baltimore Sun op-ed that praised legislation Royce introduced and also emphasizes, “Ed Royce knows that real economic growth has always and will always come from the private sector.”

Strangely, there’s a Twitter logo and a Facebook logo next to Royce’s web site address.  The Royce campaign is not the only one to do this.  The April 19 Spitzer mailer did this as well and also included a LinkedIn logo.  I’ve also seen other random pieces of non-political mail that do this too.  I understand why these logos are included in an email or on a web site because the viewer can click on those to be taken to the business/organization/campaign’s social media pages.  However, it doesn’t make sense on a paper mail piece.  Nobody can click on the logo on a paper mail piece.  These logos are needless clutter on the mail pieces.  The mailers should just send the voters to the candidate’s web site, where they can then click on the logos there to connect to the candidate’s social media pages.

The piece is 8.5″ x 11″ and becomes 17″ x 11″ when opened up.

Ed Royce Mailer

Click on the picture to view a larger version.

Posted in 39th Congressional District, Mail | Tagged: | 3 Comments »