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Posts Tagged ‘Lou Correa’

Lead Changes Galore: CD-46 (Nguyen), AD-68 (Choi), Sup-1 (Martinez), and Central Committee (Munzing)

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 14, 2016

(Top l-r): Bao Nguyen, Steven Choi, Michele Martinez, Mike Munzing (Bottom l-r): Bob Peterson, Harry Sidhu, Andrew Do, Roberta Turbow

CD-46 Candidate Bao Nguyen (D), AD-68 Candidate Steven Choi (R), Sup-1 Candidate Michele Martinez (D), Central Committee Candidate Mike Munzing (R)
CD-46 Candidate Bob Peterson (R), AD-68 Candidate Harry Sidhu (R), Supervisor Andrew Do (R), Central Committee Candidate Roberta Turbow (R)

This is cross-posted to OC Daily.

Yesterday was a crazy day in vote counting saw that saw lead changes in four different races.  It was definitely a good day for mayors, with Bao Nguyen (Garden Grove), Steven Choi (Irvine), and Mike Munzing (Aliso Viejo) each climbing into the last available spot in their races.  Additionally, Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez took first place in her race.  These races largely remain too close to call with an 87,000 ballots still uncounted countywide.

After Friday’s counts, Sheriff’s Commander Bob Peterson (R) was leading Garden Grove Mayor Bao Nguyen (D) by 236 votes for the second spot to advance to the run-off in the 46th Congressional District against former State Senator Lou Correa (D).  After yesterday’s counts, Nguyen surged forward by 814 votes and now leads Peterson by 578 votes for the right to challenge Correa’s march to Congress.

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On Friday, former Anaheim Councilman Harry Sidhu (R) was leading Irvine Mayor Steven Choi (R) by 608 votes for the second spot to advance to the run-off (and victory in the general election) in the 68th Assembly District against Attorney Sean Jay Panahi (D).  After yesterday’s results, Choi swung 640 votes and now leads Sidhu by 32 votes for the run-off slot.  With results this close, both campaigns are gearing up with attorneys and ballot watch teams.

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Friday’s results showed Supervisor Andrew Do (R) with an 836-vote lead over Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez (D) in his bid for a full four-year term after winning last year’s special election for a two-year term.  With a massive 1,689-vote swing, Martinez now leads Do by 853 votes.  Who finishes first is mostly about perception by donors, parties, volunteers, etc., as Do and Martinez will face each other in the November run-off regardless of which is first or second, as Garden Grove Councilman Phat Bui (R) is a distant third.

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Finally, in the forgotten close race for Republican Central Committee in the 73rd District, Friday’s numbers had Small Business Owner Roberta Turbow ahead of Aliso Viejo Mayor Mike Munzing by 234 votes for the sixth and final spot on the Central Committee from AD-73. A 343-vote swing now has Munzing leading Turbow by 109 votes.

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With 87,000 uncounted ballots left in Orange County, there’s still a whole lot of counting left and a whole lot of nail-biting.

(Cue my usual Nguyen disclaimer: I am not related to Garden Grove Mayor Bao Nguyen.  The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 46th Congressional District, 68th Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Live from the 46th Congressional District Candidate Forum

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 14, 2016

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Candidate Forum Audience Survey

We’re live from the 46th Congressional District Candidate Forum, sponsored by Connect-to-Council, Santa Ana Chamber of Commerce, Garden Grove Chamber of Commerce, Fountain Valley Chamber of Commerce, Anaheim Chamber of Commerce, Vietnamese American Chamber of Commerce, and Santa Ana College. The 46th Congressional District Candidate Forum began after a 15-minute Intermission after the 1st Supervisorial District Candidate Forum concluded.

Only three candidates are present:
*Orange County Sheriff’s Commander Bob Peterson (R-Orange)
*Mayor Bao Nguyen (D-Garden Grove)
*Educator/Business Owner Lynn Schott (R-Irvine)

Frontrunners Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana) and Joe Dunn (D-Santa Ana) are not present nor are the myriad of minor candidates.

Former Rancho Santiago Community College District Trustee Mark McLoughlin (D-Santa Ana) is the moderator.

Lynn Schott notes she and her family attended class at Santa Ana College. She was born and raised in the 46th District. She says she understands the district and that job creation should be the top priority. She says she will bring leadership.

Bao Nguyen greets the audience in Spanish and Vietnamese. He speaks of being an immigrant as an infant. He says he grew up and went to high school in Orange County. He is the Mayor of his hometown of Garden Grove. He says established politicians taking campaign contributions from corporations and SuperPACs harken back to the Communist regime his parents fled. He speaks of expanding Spanish and Vietnamese programs in schools. He states he started Heroes Hall Veterans Foundation. He says he is fighting corruption locally and will do so in Washington, DC.

Peterson states he was homeless as a 14-year-old in Orange County. He went to Loara High School and was inspired by two Sheriff’s deputies to join the Sheriff’s Department. He started washing laundry at the County jail and would return 22 years later to command the jail.  He believes in serving the public, regardless of party or national origin.

McLoughlin asks about federal support for community college.

Nguyen notes he is a product of public schools. He speaks of K-14 education, including community college. He wants to prioritize education funding but opposes federal policies controlling local schools.

Peterson notes he is an adjunct professor at both Santa Ana College and Brandman University. He speaks of his family’s student loan debt, both his and his wife’s as well as his children’s. Both of his children are in graduate school currently with heavy debt loads. He wants to reduce the federal loan burden on students.

Schott paid her way through college. She wants to send federal money to states to support community colleges.

McLoughlin asks about communities at risk in the district due to poverty and high unemployment.

Peterson wants to fight crime to make the community safe for business to encourage entrepreneurs to open businesses in these communities, bringing new jobs.

Schott rattles off the unemployment rates in each city in the district. She particularly emphasizes the unemployment rate among 18- and 19-year-olds.  She wants to encourage a better business climate with increased opportunities for youth, including encouraging youth to open their own businesses.

Nguyen wants to provide jobs by improving roads. He wants to expand apprenticeship programs with labor. He wants to provide infrastructure jobs.

McLoughlin asks what two existing federal programs each candidate would eliminate.

Nguyen wants to eliminate mass deportation. He speaks of his family’s separation during their immigration process. He wants immigrant children to have a chance at the American Dream like he did. Nguyen wants to end government mass surveillance and points to his father’s house arrest in Communist Vietnam.

Schott doesn’t want to eliminate any agencies. However, she wants to examine the Environmental Protection Agency to determine if each regulation is worth the economic cost. She says she would do the same examination in other agencies.

Peterson states it is important to understand the lay of the land. He opposes constantly reinventing federal education mandates. He questions Common Core, the EPA, and immigration policies.

An audience question asks about immigration reform.

Schott wants to secure the border and enforce existing laws.

Nguyen wants comprehensive immigration reform. He blasts separation of families under current immigration laws. He speaks of his family being separated when they came to the United States.

Peterson speaks of closing his windows and locking his doors at home and not letting strangers walk into his home without permission, but clothing and feeding those he invites into his home. He analogizes it with the need to enforce immigration laws and showing both compassion and common sense with immigrants. He wants to bring immigrants out of the shadows.

The audience asks another question about immigration.

Nguyen speaks of the economic value and power of immigrants in the billions of dollars. He speaks of bringing immigrants out of the shadows and being endorsed by California’s first “undocumented immigrant lawyer.”

Schott speaks of immigrants being part of America’s tapestry. She wants to encourage people to come with legal documents to achieve the American Dream. She wants to be careful with the number of visas. She wants college educated Americans to have jobs rather than importing international students into the U.S.

Peterson notes the United States is a melting pot, which is what makes the country great. He wants to secure the border and have a fair way to immigrate into the country. He says the current system is broken. He notes the 1986 immigration deal required securing the border but that was not enforced. He says reasonable people need to work together to fix the immigration system.

McLoughlin asks about getting more federal tax dollars back to California since California is a donor state.

Schott calls for examining potential tax reforms to let people keep more of what they earn.

Peterson states even Orange County is a donor county. He would like to examine entitlement programs pulling resources away from California. He notes California has a larger population than Canada. He is concerned about jobs going overseas.

Nguyen says Orange County does not make enough noise. He wants to fight for Orange County and use his background as a community organizer to get money invested in local education, public safety, and infrastructure. He speaks of making noise at least four times.

An audience question asks about ending the War on Drugs.

Peterson states it is not known how many lives are saved by a traffic signal. He speaks of his brother dying of drug-related cancer just two months ago. Peterson says he never tried drugs himself because of the War on Drugs. He does not want to give up on the War on Drugs.

Nguyen wants to decriminalize marijuana. He speaks of an incident from last year of a Santa Ana Police raid where the officers kicked down the door and partook of some of the marijuana products. He says studies show legalizing drugs works.

Schott calls for a balance. She is concerned about drug laws being enforced unfairly in minority communities and wants the laws enforced evenly. She wants to look at budget priorities on creating jobs, improving the business climate, and strengthening education.

An audience question asks about Alzheimer’s research and care.

Nguyen says there needs to be more federal funding for research for all diseases. He wants to restrict pharmaceutical companies’ prices. He doesn’t want pharmaceutical companies to own patents for drugs developed with research paid for by federal funds.

Schott wants to straighten priorities. She wants to reduce regulations on business and instead fund agencies providing senior services.

Peterson speaks of the challenges of caring for loved ones with Alzheimer’s or dementia. He wants to end wasteful research like studies on goldfish intoxication and alligator races to instead fund research into diseases and to fund senior services.

McLoughlin asks about crime and gun control.

Schott attacks Prop 47 for causing increases in crime.

Peterson states Prop 47 is the root of crime not a lack of gun control. He says the Sheriff’s Department was forced to release 600 inmates because of Prop 47 and rhetorically asks where they went. He blasts Prop 47 being named the “Safe Neighborhoods and Schools Act.”

Nguyen criticizes the prison-industrial complex. He says Orange County leaders need to fight for Prop 47 dollars. He says Orange County needs to bring more money rather than attacking Prop 47. He blasts the United States for having more inmates than Communist China.

McLoughlin calls for closing statements.

Nguyen says Washington is broken, and he can fix it. He says the candidates who did not show up are just playing the game. He blasts candidates for abstaining on votes and suing over personal problems. He blasts corporate contributions.

Peterson notes he is not a politician, just an average guy. He has served on school district committees and in public service in the Sheriff’s Department. He calls for an end to fear-mongering. He wants people to listen to what people are saying instead of hype.

Schott states she is not a career politician or a tool of special interests. She wants to solve the challenges of the 46th District. She wants to invest in the dignity of the community. She states she will take action.

The forum ends after about one hour.

Posted in 46th Congressional District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

No Surprise with OC GOP Endorsements: Chang for Senate, Kim for Assembly, Do for Supervisor

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 2, 2015

The OC GOP Central Committee is convened in a special meeting tonight to consider early endorsements for Assemblyman Ling-Ling Chang for the 29th Senate District (being vacated by the termed out Bob Huff), Assemblywoman Young Kim for re-election in the 65th Assembly District, and Supervisor Andrew Do for re-election in the 1st Supervisorial District.

7:09 PM: Three new alternates were sworn in: J. Minton Brown (for Gene Hernandez), Ceci Iglesias (for Bob Huff), and Sara Catalan (for Ed Royce).

7:10 PM: Roll call began.

7:14 PM: Roll call was completed, and a quorum established.

7:15 PM: Chairman Fred Whitaker spoke about the OC GOP’s priorities in key State and County seats. County GOP endorsements are required before California Republican Party resources can help a candidate. In SD-29, that requires three county parties: Los Angeles, Orange, and San Bernardino. In AD-65, it only requires Orange.

7:20 PM: Steve Sarkis moved and Lake Forest Mayor Scott Voigts seconded the endorsement of Supervisor Andrew Do’s re-election.

7:21 PM: Do spoke of his 43-vote victory over front runner Lou Correa earlier this year. He spoke of the importance of the OC GOP endorsement in the special election against Correa. He spoke of having an all-Republican Board of Supervisors. He spoke of his seat having a 12% Democratic registration advantage. He reminded the OC GOP of union expenditures from the special election. He spoke of his efforts for transparency, fiscal responsibility, and public safety.

7:25 PM: Whitaker asked if there were any questions.

7:26 PM: Supervisor Todd Spitzer praisee Supervisor Do as an excellent and honorable member of the Board of Supervisors.

7:27 PM: Lake Forest Mayor Scott Voigts called the question.

7:27 PM: Fountain Valley Councilman Mark McCurdy asked Do about his efforts on AB 109.

7:27 PM: Do said he works with Probation to keep track of trends and take action when there are spikes in crime in local areas.

7:28 PM: Allan Bartlett thanked Do for his efforts against redevelopment.

7:29 PM: Do endorsed unanimously 45-0.

7:30 PM: Whitaker reads a letter from Congressman Ed Royce that describes how she is an anti-tax, pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment Republican legislator.

7:31 PM: Young Kim thanks the OC GOP for its efforts last year to defeat Sharon Quirk-Silva and break the Democrats’ 2/3 supermajority in the State Assembly. She speaks of fighting against new taxes. She says she cast over 2,400 votes as an Assemblymember. She says she has a pro-life, pro-2nd Amendment, and pro-taxpayer record. She says she has an
“A” rating from the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. She says she helped stop $30 billion in tax increases. She notes she has to vote to represent her constituents. She warns she is the #1 target set, and Democrats have $16 million for Assembly seats across the State. She warns that Sharon Quirk-Silva has $350,000 cash on hand while Kim has $450,000 cash on hand. Kim spent $2.2 million in 2014 while Quirk-Silva spent $4.5 million.

7:37 PM: Assemblywoman Ling-Ling Chang asked when did Quirk-Silva began her campaign to unseat Kim.

7:38 PM: Kim stated that the day she was sworn in, the Speaker of the Assembly started seeking an Asian candidate to unseat Kim. In March, the Democrats gave up on finding an Asian challenger and backed a new bid by Quirk-Silva.

7:39 PM: McCurdy criticized Kim’s voting record on vaccinations, redevelopment, and civil asset forfeiture.

7:40 PM: Kim stated vaccinations were a very personal decision. Kim spoke of her daughter’s two brain surgeries and compromised immune system.

She stated on redevelopment, she expressed concern to the redevelopment bill’s author, Assemblyman Luis Alejo, on property rights and eminent domain. Alejo assured her he would fix those items. She voted for the bill based on Alejo’s promise to fix the bill. When the bill returned to the Assembly for a concurrence vote, she did not vote for it because the promise was not kept.

On asset forfeiture, she said she spoke to law enforcement in her district who stated the asset forfeiture bill would make it more difficult for law enforcement to fight crime.

7:44 PM: Alexandria Coronado says she received 26 emails in opposition to Kim on redevelopment and vaccinations. She stated the running theme on the emails was that she was not responsive to their concerns.

7:45 PM: Kim explained that she had scheduled a meeting with the group in question but ran into conflict with the legislative busy period. She tried to reschedule, but the bill vote occurred before this rescheduled meeting could take place during the very rapid end-of-session period when she was required to be in Sacramento and could not get down to the district. She offered to meet with them now and left voicemails with them. 

7:48 PM: Someone named Mike Glenn asked about civil forfeiture and redevelopment.

7:48 PM: Kim explained law enforcement’s needs on civil forfeiture. She reiterated she did not support the redevelopment bill when it returned to the Assembly for a concurrence vote.

7:50 PM: Ed Gunderson asked Kim why she supported the LGBT Pride Month resolution.

7:51 PM: Kim stated the resolution, which did not have the force of law, recognized the contributions of all people, including LGBT individuals. She noted the California Republican Party’s chartering of the Log Cabin Republicans. She stated she voted for tolerance and inclusiveness.

7:52 PM: Allan Bartlett asked about asset forfeiture.

7:53 PM: Kim stated she voted her conscience in the interests of her district.

7:54 PM: Sara Catalan moves and Steve Sarkis seconds an endorsement fof Kim.

7:55 PM: Stanton Councilman David Shawver supported Kim, speaking of how hardworking Kim is. He spoke of the party’s resources, including time, manpower, and money, spent to keep the 65th Assembly District seat. He calls for the party to unify behind Kim to keep the seat. He said she has repeatedly and consistently been a fixture in the district.

7:58 PM: Zonya Townsend proposed delaying Kim’s early endorsement, citing her vote on SB 277, the vaccination bill, preferring a later endorsement. She stated many Democrats left their party over SB 277. Townsend argued the OC GOP resolution was contrary to Kim’s position. She criticized Kim for speaking on the Assembly Floor in favor of SB 277.

8:00 PM: Assemblywoman Ling-Ling Chang spoke of Kim being the only candidate who could defeat Quirk-Silva. She warned that Quirk-Silva is everywhere and that Quirk-Silva would be a far, far worse vote in the Assembly. She plead for people to look at the bigger picture. She warned that Democrats would spend millions in a presidential election year to capture the 65th Assembly District seat.

8:02 PM: Mike Glenn stated property rights are important. He said law enforcement should not take people’s assets, their property. He stated people should have the right to do what they want with their own body, and cited the vaccination bill. He said eminent domain threatens property rights. He stated he wanted to delay Kim’s endorsement, not oppose it.

8:04 PM: Assemblyman Matt Harper warned that Quirk-Silva is a hard worker who believes she is a little Loretta Sanchez. He called Quirk-Silva a true believer in liberalism. Harper stated Kim is one of the most capable members of articulating conservative positions making liberals wince. Harper stated people are quibbling with literally just a handful of votes.

8:06 PM: Zonya Townsend raised a point of parliamentary inquiry about delaying Kim’s endorsement instead of opposing.

8:07 PM: Supervisor Todd Spitzer raised a point of inquiry about what would a delay accomplish.

8:08 PM: Ed Gunderson said he agreed with Kim on 80%-90% of issues. Gunderson attacked the California Republican Party’s decision to charter the Log Cabin Republicans. He stated his concern of Kim contacting law enforcement on the civil forfeiture bill. He criticized her vaccination vote.

8:10 PM: Lake Forest Mayor Scott Voigts made a point of inquiry noting that 5 votes out of 2,400 means 99.9% of her votes are not being criticized.

8:11 PM: Kim overwhelmingly endorsed for re-election with 43 votes.

8:13 PM: Whitaker described the 29th Senate District, including Democrats moving Sukhee Kang from Irvine to run for the seat.

8:15 PM: Assemblywoman Ling-Ling Chang spoke of giving up a safe Republican Assembly seat to run for a target Senate seat. She spoke of having reduced legislative tenure under the new term limits by switching houses. She spoke of her conservative record in Sacramento.

8:17 PM: McCurdy asked Chang about her votes on redevelopment and civil asset forfeiture. He asked if she endorsed or contributed to Democrats or if she is pro-life.

8:18 PM: Chang pointed out she voted against the redevelopment bill on concurrence. She stated that due process was still in place on civil asset forfeiture. She stayed she has never endorsed a Democrat in a partisan race and that she is personally pro-life.

8:19 PM: Zonya Townsend asked Chang’s position on abortion and Planned Parenthood.

8:20 PM: Chang reiterated she is personally pro-life, and there are no Assembly votes on funding Planned Parenthood.

8:21 PM: Steve Sarkis moved and Stanton Councilman David Shawver seconded an endorsement for Chang.

8:22 PM: No opposition speakers rise.

8:22 PM: Chang endorsed by voice vote with only McCurdy in opposition.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Senator-Elect Moorlach’s Lead Shrinks by Insignificant 25 Votes – There Will Be No Run-Off

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 19, 2015

Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach (R-Costa Mesa)

Senator-Elect John M. W. Moorlach
(R-Costa Mesa)

The Registrar of Voters has counted nearly all non-SB 29 ballots.  450 absentee ballots that arrived in the mail on Election Day have been counted, leaving only 100 left.  3,860 absentee ballots dropped off at the polls have been counted, leaving only 96 left.  All 181 Election Day paper ballots cast at the polls have been counted.  The 788 provisional ballots are still out there, so 4,481 ballots were counted in the fifth set of results, and only 984 of the non-SB 29 ballots remain.  2,440 SB 29 ballots arrived yesterday, and while there are still some SB 29 ballots that will arrive today and tomorrow, those will be fewer in number than 2,440.

The fifth results (yesterday’s count) show:

STATE SENATOR 37th District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 248 of 248
Vote Count Percentage
JOHN M. W. MOORLACH (REP) 36,393 50.3%
DONALD P. WAGNER (REP) 31,870 44.1%
NAZ NAMAZI (REP) 2,490 3.4%
Louise Stewardson (W) 1,589 2.2%

 

In the fifth results, Moorlach gained 2,185 votes, Wagner 1,883, Namazi 131, and Stewardson 221.  Looked at another way, Moorlach gained 2,185 votes (49.4%) while the other three won 2,235 (50.6%).  (61 undervotes/overvotes were counted yesterday, but they don’t count toward the total since they didn’t cast a valid vote.)

In the fourth results (final Election Night count), Moorlach was averting a run-off by 247 votes.  In the fifth results (yesterday’s count), Moorlach is averting a run-off by 222 votes.

So after counting 4,481 ballots yesterday, with 3,424 left, plus the small number of SB 29 ballots that will arrive today and tomorrow, it would take an unusual reversal of fortune for Moorlach for a run-off to occur.  In every iteration of ballot counts, Moorlach has dropped no lower than 49%.  For a run-off to occur, he’d have to drop to 44% or less in the remaining ballots – that’s not going to happen.

OC Political stands by our Election Night projection that there will be no run-off and John Moorlach will succeed Mimi Walters as State Senator for the 37th District.

With Moorlach’s victory, it appears the road to the California State Senate from Orange County runs through the Hall of Administration.  When was the last time an Orange County Supervisor lost a bid for the California State Senate? The last four Supervisors to run for Senate have been successful: Lou Correa in 2006, Patricia Bates and Janet Nguyen in 2014, and John Moorlach in 2015.

Posted in 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Correa Probably Regrets Authoring SB 183

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 3, 2015

An OC Political reader with a strong knowledge of recounts pointed out SB 183 (Correa, 2011) to me.  I had earlier written about the difficulty of getting new results in recounts in California.  SB 183 is the bill that made successful recounts virtually impossible.

Prior to SB 183, recount strategy typically relied on getting ballots tossed for identifiable marks, such as the infamous flower ballot of 2007.

Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana) put an end to that with SB 183.  Identifiable marks no longer invalidated ballots.  Consequently, the only way a ballot can be tossed is if the voter voted for more candidates than were available on the ballot (e.g. two candidates for Supervisor, four candidates for three city council slots) or voted both yes and no on a ballot measure.  Even then, the whole ballot wouldn’t be tossed, just the race in which the voter overvoted.

With more accurate ballot counting software and SB 183, recounts of anything other than provisional ballots are almost pointless in California.  That’s why the Garden Grove mayoral recount had no vote changes, the State Controller recount had 8 vote changes statewide, etc.

As one friend suggested while I talked to her about this situation, perhaps Correa wrote SB 183 in 2011 expecting to narrowly lead in a future election and wanted to prevent a recount from overturning his result.  Instead, he found himself narrowly behind in 2015 and wasn’t able to overturn the result.

Correa’s SB 183 of 2011 was actually identical to SB 387 of 2009 by Senator Loni Hancock (D-Berkeley), which was vetoed by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who

The provisions of this bill allowing elections officials to process ballots that contain extraneous non-identifying marks are acceptable; however, I am concerned that remaking a ballot that contains personal identifying information compromises ballot secrecy and increases the opportunity for fraud.

The only difference two years later for SB 183 (Correa) of 2011 versus SB 387 (Hancock) of 2009 was a new Governor, Jerry Brown.

The two key changes in SB 183 were for Elections Code Sections 15154 and 15208:

SB 183 modified Elections Code Section 15154 as follows:

Any ballot that is not marked as provided by law or that is marked or signed by the voter so that it can be identified by others shall be rejected.

SB 183 struck this sentence out of Elections Code Section 15208:

Any ballot that is marked in a manner so as to identify the voter shall be marked “Void” and shall be placed in the container for void ballots.

SB 183 also replaced the voter instruction “All distinguishing marks or erasures are forbidden and make the ballot void” and replaced it with “Marking the ballot outside of the designated space to vote for a candidate or measure may compromise the secrecy of the ballot.”

Promoted by Common Cause and now-disgraced Secretary of State Debra Bowen, Correa introduced SB 183 on February 7, 2011. It passed the Legislature on near-party-line votes (oddly, Assemblyman Chris Norby voted against it in Assembly Appropriations and for it 12 days later on the Assembly Floor).  Governor Jerry Brown signed SB 183 into law on October 9, 2011, and it took effect January 1, 2012.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , | 9 Comments »

Measure J Hearing Today, Potential Harbinger of What Will Come in Correa Lawsuit

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 18, 2015

north_orange_county_community_college_district_employer_logo_fullThe hearing in the North Orange County Community College District Measure J case is slated to be heard this morning.  After the initial count showed Measure J winning by a very narrow margin (34 “yes” votes need to be tossed for J to fail), Opponents of Measure J launched a recount in order to examine the provisional ballots cast in the election.  Measure J is a $574 million bond measure.

They found 42 provisional ballots that weren’t signed by the voter and “identified hundreds of signatures [on absentee and provisional ballots] that a reasonable person could not identify as similar to the signature on the voter registration card.”

With a four-year-old state law making it harder to toss ballots in a recount, very few recounts (if any) have overturned the results of an election in California.  Indeed, in Orange County, no recount since then has managed to change any winner’s vote margin.

Former Senator Lou Correa has not yet filed his lawsuit in the First Supervisorial District Special Election, but I would suspect that is because his camp is keeping a close eye on the Measure J hearing.  When not even a single vote changed in the recount, leaving Andrew Do in office as the new Supervisor, Correa switched to examining provisional ballots (i.e. the Measure J opponents’ strategy).

If the Measure J opponents prove wildly successful in tossing ballots, that’d be a good sign for Correa.  If the Measure J opponents fail to toss ballots, that’d be a bad sign for Correa.  If Measure J opponents barely prevail in that ballot tossing effort, then Correa’s camp needs to carefully scrutinize whether they have enough ballots to toss to make a difference.  Measure J opponents only need to toss 34 ballots out of 154,118 cast.  Correa needs to toss 43 ballots out of 48,339 cast (technically, 48,626 ballots were cast in the First Supervisorial District Special Election, but those 287 voters who cast blank ballots aren’t likely to matter; had a bunch of them been Correa undervotes, we would have heard about it by now).

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , | 6 Comments »

Correa Ends Recount in 1st Supervisorial District

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 13, 2015

Former Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana) has ended the recount in the First Supervisorial District Special Election. New Supervisor Andrew Do’s 43-vote lead and victory remain intact.

Presumably, Correa will now use the information gathered in the recount process to launch his litigation. Ironically, the first hearing in the lawsuit challenging the passage of the North Orange County Community College District’s Measure J bond will begin next week.

Here is the press release from the Registrar of Voters announcing the end of the recount…

First District Special Election Recount Ends

No change in original certification as recount officially ends

February 13, 2015 – SANTA ANA – Former Senator Lou Correa has ended the recount in the Board of Supervisors’ First District Special Election contest. The recount began Monday, February 9, 2015. Mr. Correa made the original request following the certification of the election.

During the recount nearly 6,250 vote-by-mail ballots were recounted and election materials were reviewed. There were no changes to the vote totals – pursuant to California Elections Code § 15632 the original certification of the ballots cast remains as the official certification. The ballots cast and vote totals for the First District can be found in the “Results” section at ocvote.com.

# # #

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Five New Votes in First Supervisorial District

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 11, 2015

On the first day of the recount in the First Supervisorial District Special Election, 6,250 ballots in 16 precincts were recounted with no change, so former Senator Lou Correa suspended the recount to focus on provisional ballots.

Despite the suspension, another 2,912 ballots in 5 precincts were recounted on the second day.  However, unlike the first day, there was a 5-vote change, and the 2,912 ballots grew to 2,917.  Presumably, those five votes are previously-disqualified provisionals that have now been counted.  It appears that when each newly-included provisional was added, the entire precinct was then recounted.

Specifically, the 5 precincts each had 1 additional vote (Garden Grove’s 14601 and 14611, Westminster’s 39620, and Santa Ana’s 68618 and 68620).

Unfortunately for Correa, the 5-vote change had no net effect on Supervisor Andrew Do‘s 43-vote lead.  While Correa gained 2 votes (both from Santa Ana), Do also gained 2 votes (one each from Garden Grove and Westminster).  Garden Grove Councilman Chris Phan gained the other vote.

Also, on a complete tangent: congratulations are in order for write-in candidate Mark I. Lopez, as his vote for himself in Precinct 68615 was not tossed.  (In case anyone was wondering, the other write-in vote for Lopez was in Precinct 68634, but that Santa Ana precinct has not been recounted.)  I am left with the question of why the other four people registered to vote in Lopez’s house didn’t vote for him.  Perhaps they were concerned about Lopez’s desire for more politicians who talk like George Wallace did.

Here’s the precinct-by-precinct breakdown (vote changes in red):

 

Precinct City Status Ballots Recounted Candidate Name Original Tally Hand Tally
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 ANDREW DO 241 241
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 CHRIS PHAN 99 100
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 17 17
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 LOU CORREA 293 293
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 10 10
14601 Garden Grove Counted 593 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 ANDREW DO 215 216
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 CHRIS PHAN 105 105
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 28 28
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 LOU CORREA 170 170
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 5 5
14611 Garden Grove Counted 526 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
39620 Westminster Counted 553 ANDREW DO 272 273
39620 Westminster Counted 553 CHRIS PHAN 90 90
39620 Westminster Counted 553 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 31 31
39620 Westminster Counted 553 LOU CORREA 151 151
39620 Westminster Counted 553 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 6 6
39620 Westminster Counted 553 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68601 Santa Ana Counted 649 ANDREW DO 141 141
68601 Santa Ana Counted 649 CHRIS PHAN 126 126
68601 Santa Ana Counted 649 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 30 30
68601 Santa Ana Counted 649 LOU CORREA 345 345
68601 Santa Ana Counted 649 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 ANDREW DO 208 208
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 CHRIS PHAN 97 97
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 28 28
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 LOU CORREA 146 146
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 10 10
68602 Santa Ana Counted 490 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68603 Santa Ana Counted 298 CHRIS PHAN 44 44
68603 Santa Ana Counted 298 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 5 5
68603 Santa Ana Counted 298 LOU CORREA 170 170
68603 Santa Ana Counted 298 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 ANDREW DO 21 21
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 CHRIS PHAN 11 11
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 2 2
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 LOU CORREA 176 176
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 15 15
68604 Santa Ana Counted 225 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 ANDREW DO 100 100
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 CHRIS PHAN 40 40
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 14 14
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 LOU CORREA 189 189
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 8 8
68605 Santa Ana Counted 353 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 ANDREW DO 309 309
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 CHRIS PHAN 137 137
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 64 64
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 LOU CORREA 189 189
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 2 2
68606 Santa Ana Counted 705 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 ANDREW DO 41 41
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 CHRIS PHAN 35 35
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 2 2
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 LOU CORREA 285 285
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 8 8
68607 Santa Ana Counted 372 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 ANDREW DO 102 102
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 CHRIS PHAN 36 36
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 5 5
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 LOU CORREA 96 96
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 11 11
68608 Santa Ana Counted 252 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68609 Santa Ana Counted 417 ANDREW DO 143 143
68609 Santa Ana Counted 417 CHRIS PHAN 38 38
68609 Santa Ana Counted 417 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 12 12
68609 Santa Ana Counted 417 LOU CORREA 200 200
68609 Santa Ana Counted 417 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 21 21
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 ANDREW DO 86 86
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 CHRIS PHAN 38 38
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 4 4
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 LOU CORREA 197 197
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 4 4
68610 Santa Ana Counted 329 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 ANDREW DO 139 139
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 CHRIS PHAN 46 46
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 13 13
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 LOU CORREA 151 151
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 7 7
68611 Santa Ana Counted 358 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 ANDREW DO 73 73
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 CHRIS PHAN 19 19
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 8 8
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 LOU CORREA 225 225
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 6 6
68612 Santa Ana Counted 332 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 ANDREW DO 61 61
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 CHRIS PHAN 42 42
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 7 7
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 LOU CORREA 352 352
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 16 16
68613 Santa Ana Counted 481 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 ANDREW DO 106 106
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 CHRIS PHAN 65 65
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 15 15
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 LOU CORREA 151 151
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 2 2
68614 Santa Ana Counted 342 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 ANDREW DO 74 74
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 CHRIS PHAN 55 55
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 14 14
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 LOU CORREA 299 299
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 12 12
68615 Santa Ana Counted 462 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 1 1
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 ANDREW DO 58 58
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 CHRIS PHAN 53 53
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 8 8
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 LOU CORREA 159 159
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 6 6
68616 Santa Ana Counted 286 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 ANDREW DO 361 361
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 CHRIS PHAN 23 23
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 6 6
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 LOU CORREA 292 293
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 14 14
68618 Santa Ana Counted 362 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 ANDREW DO 49 49
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 CHRIS PHAN 26 26
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 8 8
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 LOU CORREA 387 388
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 29 29
68620 Santa Ana Counted 502 MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 0 0

 

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Correa Suspends Recount After 6,250 Ballots in 16 Precincts Produces No Changes, Switches to Provisional Strategy, Eyes Turn to SD-37

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 10, 2015

Supervisor's Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

One of the last times we’ll use this graphic of Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster), former Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilman Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

After recounting 6,250 ballots in 16 precincts (12.85% of all ballots cast and 15.84% of all precincts) in the First Supervisorial District, no ballots changed.

Correa has opted to suspend the recount to instead focus on provisional ballots, a strategy suggested in a colorful post by Orange Juice Blogger Greg Diamond.

Diamond cited the effort to overturn the North Orange County Community College District’s Measure J in which the measure’s opponents initiated the recount but focused on gathering information about the provisional ballots in order to challenge the provisionals in court.  Their court date is Wednesday, February 18.

However, Measure J opponents have a much shorter road to victory than Correa does.

Simple math explains this: Measure J opponents need to toss 34 out of 154,118 (0.02206%) votes cast.  Correa needs to toss 43 out of 48,626 (0.08843%) votes cast.

Measure J opponents also have the advantage of a multicounty district: they can challenge ballots in the LA County portion of the North Orange County Community College District (that district really needs a name change for the sake of geographic accuracy).  Correa can only challenge ballots in Orange County.

The history books are about to be written on the First Supervisorial District Special Election.

County Supervisor First District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 101 of 101
Vote Count Percentage
ANDREW DO 18,905 39.1%
LOU CORREA 18,862 39.0%
CHRIS PHAN 7,857 16.3%
CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 1,879 3.9%
LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 834 1.7%
MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 2 0.0%

Yesterday, Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley sent out this unintentionally symbolic tweet, as political eyes turn away from the First Supervisorial District Special Election and toward the 37th Senate District Special Election:

It’s only 35 days until the SD-37 Special Election, and the first mailer should arrive in my mailbox any day now.

Wagner, Moorlach, and Namazi

Time to start focusing on this trio of Republicans: Business Owner/Assemblyman Donald P. Wagner, former Orange County Supervisor John M. W. Moorlach, and Naz Namazi

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments »

SB 29 Ballots Strongly Favored Correa

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 5, 2015

Andrew Do and Lou Correa

New Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster) and former Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), the runner-up in the First Supervisorial District Special Election

In 2014, SB 29, authored by then-Senator Lou Correa, was signed into law, allowing absentee ballots to arrive via USPS up to three days after Election Day (provided they were either postmarked by Election Day or not postmarked).  There were 683 of these ballots (562 arrived on Wednesday, 120 arrived on Thursday, and 1 lonely ballot arrived on Friday) in the First Supervisorial District Special Election (the first election held since SB 29 came into effect on January 1, 2015).  As our readers all know, Andrew Do defeated Correa by 43 votes.

Correa led Do by 6% on the SB 29 ballots.  Correa had led Do by just 1% in early absentees while Do led Correa by 5% among late (but still arriving by Election Day) absentee ballots.

Many Republicans breathed a sigh of relief that SB 29 ballots did not put Correa over the top against Do, but there remain serious implications for Republicans in future elections.  The First Supervisorial District was simply a trial run that demonstrated that SB 29 ballots do favor Democrats.  In Orange County, Vietnamese absentee ballots can still overpower SB 29 ballots, but in other parts of California, SB 29 ballots will proceed unimpeded by Vietnamese absentee ballots.  It would behoove Republican lawmakers to try to reform SB 29.  Failing that, Republican campaigns will need to learn how to win over SB 29 ballots.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District | Tagged: , | 4 Comments »