OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Posts Tagged ‘Kevin McCarthy’

Total Chaos: Harkey & Chavez Running for CD-49; Nelson, Kim, & Huff Running for CD-39; Who’s Running for BOE & AD-76?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 11, 2018

The unexpected announcements in a three-day period by Congressmen Ed Royce (R-Fullerton) and Darrell Issa (R-Vista) that they would not be running for re-election in two of the most hotly-contested Congressional seats in the country set off a game of musical chairs that has unleashed total chaos in the Southern California political world, particularly in Orange County and even in Los Angeles and San Diego Counties.

The Fast and the Furious

In a three-day span, two Congressional races, a Board of Equalization race, an Assembly race, and a supervisorial race were turned upside down.  Former and current elected officials have been switching campaigns faster than the speed of street racers living a quarter-mile at a time.

On Monday, Royce announced he would not be running for re-election in the 39th Congressional District.  The next evening, former Assemblywoman Young Kim (R-Fullerton) entered the CD-39 race the with Royce’s endorsement and dropped out of the race to succeed Fourth District Supervisor Shawn Nelson (R-Fullerton).  Less than 3 hours later, Nelson entered the race for CD-39, abandoning plans to wait for an open judicial seat.  Within 20 minutes of Nelson’s entry, former State Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff (R-Diamond Bar) entered the CD-39 race.

On Wednesday, Issa announced he would not be running for re-election in the 49th Congressional District.  Two hours later, Board of Equalization Chairwoman Diane Harkey (R-Dana Point) entered the CD-49 race with the endorsements of both Issa and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield), ending her re-election bid for the State Board of Equalization.  Four hours after Harkey’s entry, Assemblyman Rocky Chavez (R-Oceanside) entered the CD-49 race, ending his re-election bid for the 76th Assembly District.  Inexplicably, both the San Diego Union-Tribune and Los Angeles Times reported that Chavez was the first to enter the race despite Harkey announcing first.

The rapid Royce and Issa retirements set off so many rumors that Congressmen Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) and Ken Calvert (R-Corona) both felt compelled to issue statements yesterday confirming that they were continuing their re-election campaigns.  Calvert said, “I look forward to campaigning in 2018 to represent the 42nd Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives…” (full statement here). Rohrabacher said, “I am unequivocally running for re-election and confident that my views reflect the values and the needs of my constituents here in Orange County…” (full statement here).

The Hunger Games

Kim’s entry into the CD-39 race shook up the 4th Supervisorial District race to succeed Nelson, for she was the candidate with the highest name ID and largest warchest.  Harkey’s entry into the CD-49 race has now created a race for BOE that otherwise would have been a near-certain re-election for her.  Similarly, Chavez’s entry into CD-49 race has now created a race for AD-76 that otherwise would have been a probable re-election for him.

In all of this, it cannot be forgotten: CD-39 and CD-49 are both key swing seats that could help determine party control of the United States House of Representatives.  With that in mind, since the Democratic fields for both districts has stayed steady, we’re focusing on the completely-transformed Republican fields for both districts.

A picture (or flow chart) is worth 1,000 words for the first few days of our local version of The Hunger Games.  There can only be one victor in each seat, as various elected officials hope the odds are ever in their favor:

CD-39/CD-49 Flow Chart

49th Congressional District

I promise: no more gratuitous movie references in this blog post.  In the 49th Congressional District race to succeed Issa:

Board of Equalization Chairwoman Diane Harkey (R-Dana Point) represents all of CD-49, as her massive BOE district includes the entirety of Orange, San Diego, Imperial, and Riverside Counties, as well as portions of San Bernardino County.  She won one election to the Dana Point City Council and then three elections to the State Assembly representing portions of South Orange County and North San Diego County.   Harkey raised $600,000 for her BOE campaign.  She raised $259,000 for her 2012 Assembly re-election, $189,000 in 2010, and $299,000 in 2008.

Assemblyman Rocky Chavez represents 63% of CD-49 voters.  Of the 387,000 registered voters in CD-49, Chavez represents the 244,000 who reside in the AD-76 overlap with CD-49.  He won two elections to the Oceanside City Council and then three elections to the State Assembly representing North San Diego County.  In the most recent election in 2016, he made an awkward bid for US Senate, in which he dropped out live on air on KOGO-AM in the opening minutes of a Republican Senate debate.  He had raised $117,000 for his US Senate campaign.  Chavez raised $198,000 for his 2016 Assembly re-election, $256,000 in 2014, and $258,000 in 2012.

There are currently four Democrats running for CD-49, none of whom hold elected office, and three of whom have raised over $500,000 (and the fourth entered after the last campaign finance reporting period).  If no other Republican enters, and none of the Democrats drop out, it is entirely possible a CD-31 2012 scenario could play out, and we could see Harkey vs. Chavez in the November general election.  (CD-31 was a highly competitive swing seat in 2012, but Congressman Gary Miller and State Senate Republican Leader Bob Dutton faced off in the general election because four Democrats split the vote, allowing Miller and Dutton to slip into the top two spots.)

39th Congressional District

Here are excerpts of OC Political’s analysis from Tuesday in relation to Nelson, Huff, and Kim before their entries into the 39th Congressional District race to succeed Royce:

Supervisor Shawn Nelson represents 45% of the voters of the 39th Congressional District.  Of the 367,000 registered voters in CD-39, Nelson represents 166,000 of them, who reside in the 4th Supervisorial District’s overlap with CD-39.  Nelson has deep roots in the district, having grown up in Fullerton, graduated from high school there, and even graduating from law school there.  He’s also a member of countless civic organizations in CD-39.  Nelson won three elections to the Fullerton City Council and two to the Orange County Board of Supervisors (and raised the necessary money to wage those campaigns).  As it happens, he is termed out from the Board in 2018.

Former State Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff represented 71% of CD-39 voters, with 262,000 of the 367,000 CD-39 voters residing in SD-29, which Huff termed out of in 2016.  Huff won three elections to the Diamond Bar City Council, two to the State Assembly, and two to the State Senate.  Diamond Bar is the largest LA County city in CD-39.  Though he lost his bid for the LA County Board of Supervisors, there are less than 200 voters who are in the overlap between CD-39 and that supervisorial district.  As a former Senate Republican Leader, he’s certainly capable of raising funds for this seat.

Former Assemblywoman Young Kim represented 35% of CD-39 voters, with 95,000 of the 367,000 CD-39 voters residing in AD-65.  However, Kim also holds the unique distinction of having worked for Royce for nearly 20 years before her election to the Assembly.  She had been his Director of Community Relations and Asian Affairs.  In 2014, Kim defeated Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva’s re-election bid, but in 2016, Quirk-Silva avenged herself by defeating Kim’s re-election bid.  Kim is certainly familiar with what a swing seat campaign entails, with her sheer number of volunteers and staff.  She raised $2 million in each of her two Assembly campaigns.  Kim is currently in the midst of her bid to replace the termed out Nelson to represent the Fourth District on the Board of Supervisors.  If Kim switched to the Congressional race, it would leave La Habra Mayor Tim Shaw the sole Republican candidate facing off against Democrat Joe Kerr, a former long-time firefighters’ union president, for Supervisor (other Democrats running for the seat would presumably be eliminated by the voters in the June primary).

At the moment, there are six Democrats and two independents (though a seventh Democrat is reportedly looking at the seat).  Five of the Democrats have raised over $100,000 (one has hit $400,000), and four of them have self-funded in amounts ranging from $111,000-$2,000,000.  A CD-31 2012 scenario is tougher here than in CD-49 (though not out of the question) with three Republicans, six or seven Democrats, and two independents.  However, if one of the three Republicans drops out, a CD-31 2012 scenario becomes much more likely with that large Democratic Party field.

Board of Equalization

Lost in the Congressional races has been the fact that the Board of Equalization race is now wide open since Harkey will be running for CD-49 rather than seeking re-election.

Former Councilman John F. Kelly (R-Tustin) had pulled papers to run against Harkey.  He won only 11% of the vote when he ran against her in 2014.  A former long-time tobacco shop owner, Kelly does have an odd boost in name ID now, thanks to White House Chief of Staff John F. Kelly.  Former Tobacco Shop Owner Kelly served one term on the Tustin City Council from 1986-1990, having been elected to office at the age of 24 and defeated for re-election at the age of 28.  He also made an ill-fated bid for Congress in 1988 for the seat eventually won by Chris Cox (who was succeeded by John Campbell who was succeeded by Mimi Walters).  No word on if Kelly will continue his campaign, now that Harkey is out.

Sources have stated that Orange County Water District Board Member Denis Bilodeau (R-Orange) is examining whether he will enter the BOE race since Harkey switched to CD-49.  Bilodeau won two elections to the Orange City Council, serving from 2006 to 2014, when he termed out.  He also won five elections to represent Orange, Villa Park, and portions of Tustin on the water board.  Bilodeau is also Shawn Nelson’s Chief of Staff at the Orange County Board of Supervisors.

76th Assembly District

Oceanside Councilman Jerry Kern was running for AD-76 in 2016 until withdrawing when Chavez dropped out of the US Senate race.  Kern is currently running for San Diego County Supervisor in the Fifth District but sources indicate he is preparing to switch back to AD-76 in 2018 since Chavez is now running for CD-49.  Kern had raised $184,000 for AD-76 in 2016 until Chavez’s return forced Kern out of the race.

Strangely, no Democrat has ever run for AD-76 since the implementation of the top two primary.  Chavez has only run against other Republicans for Assembly.

Posted in 39th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 4th Supervisorial District, Board of Equalization | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Moorlach Drops Out of CD-45 Race

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on March 10, 2014

John M.W. MoorlachSupervisor John Moorlach announced tonight that he is dropping out of the race for the 45th Congressional District.  Candidates in the 74th Assembly District are banking on the sentence, “I will enjoy my final year as Supervisor and then return to the private sector…” Here’s his announcement…

MOORLACH CAMPAIGN UPDATE — It’s About Time — March 10, 2014

At the February 25th Board of Supervisors meeting, one of my colleagues, when considering the opportunity to serve on one more Board, explained how busy he already was. He cited the number of major issues being addressed on the numerous boards he sat on. He wondered aloud where in the day he could eke out the time required to participate on an additional board. He lamented that his plate was incredibly full and how stretched each Supervisor must be right now.

I do not believe he was complaining. He was just explaining that a County Supervisor’s days are completely full and that adding another commitment is not an easy thing to do. It’s about having the necessary time to be effective. After all, even the best delegator has to know when to say “no.”

I have run for elected office nine times. Running for Congress will be my tenth. I know how to campaign and what is involved. I consider myself an excellent time manager. But, I too am maxed out with the many components of this job of Supervisor.

Fortunately, I have been able to drop my involvement in two Commission Chair assignments (two involvements that I really enjoyed). But, my loyalty to the responsibility of my current job has made allocating major chunks of time to the campaign very difficult. I have made a fraction of the calls that I have wanted to, whether for asking for funds or for endorsements. If I called you, consider yourself fortunate. If I have not, rest in the knowledge that you are on the list.

The filing period closes on Wednesday and I find myself with two choices. The first is to file and continue to eke out time to campaign, including raising money, and hope that those efforts are successful. The second is to fold up the tent and drop out of the race.

I believe I am the best candidate for the 45th Congressional District. The polling shows that I’m in the lead. This is my race to lose. But, without satisfactory resources in the bank, I will find myself being hammered by negative mail on a weekly basis by one of the other candidates in the race. As she doesn’t have much of a record to boast upon, then going negative will have to be the only strategy left. And she hasn’t given any reason to think otherwise by the barbs that have been thrown my way to date.

I’m not afraid of negative mail. I endured plenty of it in my first run for County Supervisor from the independent expenditures made by local public employee unions and their brethren up and down the state. It’s not fun. But, you need to respond, as claims made by this one candidate in one recent e-mail were false and should deserve a response.

I’m also not a quitter. But, my family and I have given the County twenty years of our lives. The sacrifices made have been more than enough. Working long days every day of the week do have a way of wearing you down. I love the work and I love problem solving. I’ve had a ball as your County Treasurer and your Second District Supervisor. There have been plenty of problems to solve. The list of accomplishments I’ve been able to compile gives me great personal satisfaction of a job well done. It’s been about fiscal issues, and I’ve addressed most of them, some before they became ubiquitous.

We both know that our nation is headed in the wrong direction. The inability to balance annual budgets, the assumption that the federal government can run health care, the ever growing national debt, and municipalities choking to death on their pension commitments without leadership from Washington, D.C. are heartrending.

We are admonished by the Apostle Paul to run the race in order to win. Although I am spending numerous hours every day on the campaign, I am not allocating the amount of time needed to be a successful candidate. The job of a County Supervisor is just that time consuming. And my DNA will not allow me to neglect the responsibilities that I was elected to perform.

These past few months have been exhilarating. When someone says, “I wish there were more elected officials like you” or “you’ve got my vote,” it is most gratifying. One of the highest compliments I’ve received is that I’m well liked because I don’t “impose” on anyone. I have not imposed on you and others, and the campaign’s cash balance indicates it. Below is an article on the campaign from Womens ENews, showing the December 31st report totals.

Therefore, I’m letting the dream of serving in the United States Congress go. I will enjoy my final year as Supervisor and then return to the private sector; grateful for the opportunity to have served this wonderful County and its three million residents. I’ve been blessed. It’s about time I finish my tour of duty in public life. It’s about time I stop making my amazing wife endure countless hours of waiting for me to come home from the job. It’s about time I give myself some time.

Thank you for making the experiences over the past two decades so worthwhile and fulfilling. I deeply appreciate your support and encouragement! Thank you and God Bless you!

Womens eNews

GOP Female Duo Faces California’s ‘Jungle System’

By Sharon Johnson

WeNews senior correspondent

Monday, March 10, 2014

If they win in a state where campaign costs and competition are both high, Elizabeth Emken and Mimi Walters will crack open the GOP’s all-male caucus in California. The second in a series on women tapped by the GOP’s Project GROW.

(WOMENSENEWS)–Two Californian congressional candidates are carrying some of the GOP’s hope for improving its female ranks by the end of the year.

Both Elizabeth Emken and Mimi Walters have been tapped to receive special training and support through the GOP’s Project GROW (Growing Opportunities for Women).

Electing these women is key to Republican hopes of widening a 17-seat majority in the House of Representatives. The party is eager for Emken to take back the seat of Ami Bera, one of four seats it lost to the Democrats in 2012, and also for Walters to retain the seat of John Campbell, who is retiring after serving for 14 years.

The 53-member California delegation–the largest in the House–wields considerable power. Nancy Pelosi is the minority leader and Kevin McCarthy is the Republican whip.

The Democratic caucus, which has become more diverse since the 1990s, now includes 18 women and 20 men. The Republican caucus has remained a male bastion: all 19 members are men.

California is one of the most difficult states for House candidates because it has a “jungle” primary system. The top two vote getters in the primary compete in the general election regardless of political affiliation. This system poses ideological as well as fundraising barriers for GOP women, who tend to be more moderate and have fewer financial resources than do their male opponents.

“Female candidates across the country generally have a more difficult time raising funds than do male candidates because they don’t have the sources that men do, although this is starting to change as women move up in their fields,” said Debbie Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at the Eagleton Institute at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, N.J.

Only 27 percent of the 113 GOP female candidates for the House won their primaries in the 2010 midterm election, and 31 percent of 86 GOP female candidates in the 2012 general election, found the center, which conducts research and outreach on women’s under-representation in politics and government.

“Facing multiple challengers in a primary can quickly drain a female candidate’s finances,” said Walsh in a phone interview. “Running in a district where the cost of media is high can be prohibitively expensive for women.”

7th Congressional District

Elizabeth Emken is looking for her first victory in the race against Rep. Bera, a freshman Democrat who beat a longtime Republican incumbent in 2012.

Democrats have a 2 percentage point advantage in voter registration in the district, which includes the suburbs of Sacramento, the state capitol.

Fundraising may plague Emken. In addition to Bera, who raised $3,632,282 in 2012, Emken faces two Republican challengers in the primary on June 3: Doug Ose, a former congressman, and Igor Birman, chief of staff of Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Calif. Ose represented a large portion of the redrawn district from 1999 to 2005.

As of Dec. 31, Bera had raised $1,373,106; Emken, $450,999; Ose $378,452; and Birman $247,573, noted the Center for Responsive Politics. Bera, the only Indian American in the House, was recently named to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Frontline Program, which provides financial support to vulnerable Democrats.

Emken has denounced Bera as an “Obama foot soldier.” Unlike Bera, a physician who supports the Affordable Care Act, Emken has backed repeal because she says health care inequities can be better addressed through tax reforms. As a lobbyist for autism research, Emken backed provisions of the Affordable Care Act that would benefit the two million Americans who have the condition.

She also believes that the disabled and seniors have a right to opt out of Medicaid and Medicare.

Emken opposes same-sex marriage, which resumed in the state after a 2008 state ban was overturned by the Supreme Court in June 2013.

The mother of a son with autism, Emken lobbied the U.S. Congress for 14 years before she made her first foray into politics in 2010. In 1996, she and a group of parents of children with autism met with Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., to stress the need for more research funds for the condition, which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says affects 1-in-88 children in the country.

As a legislative consultant and board member of Cure Autism Now, a Los Angeles research advocacy group, she helped pass the Advances for Pediatric Autism Research Act, which became part of the Children’s Health Act of 2000. In 2006, Emken also led a campaign by 19 autism organizations to pass the Combating Autism Act, which authorized $1 billion a year, beginning in 2007, for five years for research, screening and treatment.

In 2010, Emken came in last of four Republicans competing for the 9th District seat of Rep. Jerry McNerney, founder of a company that manufacturers wind turbines. In 2012, she made a bid for the U.S. Senate by challenging Democrat Dianne Feinstein, California’s senior senator, and won only 37 percent of the vote.

Fundraising was a major hurdle because the party provided little support. Unlike Feinstein, who had $865,541 in cash on hand, Emken started from scratch, raising a total of $914,350, reports the Washington-based Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks campaign financing.

Emken’s largest contribution totaled $10,000. Only 1 percent of contributions came from political action committees, compared to 23 percent for Feinstein, who had served on key committees, such as Appropriations, Intelligence and Judiciary.

Feinstein, who had been in the Senate since 1992, spent $12,152,230. Her top contributors were PG & E Corp., a natural gas and electric utility for Northern and Central California ($120,700), and J Street PAC, a nonprofit group that wants to promote leadership to end the Israel/Arab conflict ($82,171).

45th Congressional District

A California state legislator, Mimi Walters, will face two GOP challengers in the June 3 primary for the seat of Campbell, who emphasized decreasing earmarks and reducing government spending.

All three are fiscal conservatives. John Moorlach, an Orange County supervisor, sounded the alarm before Orange County went bankrupt in 1994. A retired marine colonel, Greg Raths’ website says he would be “open to curbing expensive weapons systems, like the F-35 fighter jet, a $137 million plane which is not performing.”

The district includes Irvine, Mission Viejo and parts of Anaheim and Orange. Republicans have a 15-percentage-point advantage in voter registration. So far, no Democrat has filed to run.

Walters ran for state treasurer in 2010 and gained name recognition. She also has the endorsements of two influential California Republicans–Rep. Darrell Issa, chair of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, and Rep. Ed Royce, chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

A former stock broker, Walters founded the California Women’s Leadership Association, a statewide organization of influential women who support free market principles. She supports lower taxes and less intrusive government, but has not addressed women’s economic issues, such as equal pay.

So far, Walters has the edge in fundraising. The Center for Responsive Politics reports that by the end of 2013, she had raised $623,760, Raths $132,729 and Moorlach $46,316.

In February, Walters was endorsed by the New Majority California PAC, the largest GOP PAC in the state. The Center for Responsive Politics reports that the PAC contributed $1,107,798 to candidates from 2006 to 2012.

Sharon Johnson is a New York-based freelance writer.


Posted in 45th Congressional District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

California’s Plausible Independent Candidates

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 4, 2012

Traditionally, after a California primary election, the top vote-getter from each party would advance to the general election, so you could have one Republican, one Democrat, one American Independent, one Libertarian, one Green, and one Peace and Freedom.  An independent (known as a Decline-to-State or DTS back then) could only get on the ballot by petition with the signatures of literally thousands of registered voters.  Well, Prop 14 changed all that.  Now, it’s just as easy for an independent (known as No Party Preference or NPP) to get on the ballot as a candidate affiliated with a party.  If the independent is one of the top two vote-getters, they advance to November’s quasi-runoff that pits the top two candidates against each other in the general election (even if somebody gets more than 50% of the vote in June, there’s still a November runoff required; indeed, even if there’s only one candidate in June, they still advance to a November runoff where there’s only one candidate on the ballot).

So here’s a look at the dozen most plausible independent candidates running in California in tomorrow’s election. (Yes, that’s right we’re less than 23 hours away from the polls opening in the primary!)

(Party registrations do not add up to 100% in the figures below because I have not listed third party registration.)

Former Assemblyman Anthony Adams, Supervisor Linda Parks, and College District Trustee Chad Walsh

California’s most viable independent candidates: Former Assemblyman Anthony Adams (CD-8), Supervisor Linda Parks (CD-26), and College District Trustee Chad Walsh (AD-28)

Could Be Elected

  • 8th Congressional District: Former Assemblyman Anthony Adams
    Former Republican Assemblyman Anthony Adams is running as an independent candidate.  In addition to Adams, there are two Democrats and ten Republicans running.  Among the Republicans are a State Assemblyman (Paul Cook), a County Supervisor (Brad Mitzelfelt), a Mayor (Ryan McEachron of Victorville), and a Councilwoman (Angela Valles of Victorville).  CD-8’s registered voters are: 41.8% Republicans, 32.5% Democrats, and 19.5% NPPs.  It’s entirely possible that the ten Republicans could split enough of the Republican vote to allow the NPP Adams to advance to November against a Democrat and presumably win in November due to the plurality Republicans’ preference for an independent over a Democrat.
  • 26th Congressional District: Supervisor Linda Parks
    In this open seat, the three leading candidates are State Senator Tony Strickland (R-Moorpark), State Assemblywoman Julia Brownley (D-Santa Monica), and Ventura County Supervisor Linda Parks (NPP-Thousand Oaks).  (98.3% of CD-26’s registered voters live in Ventura County.)  Strickland is the sole Republican, and Parks is the sole NPP, but Brownley is one of four Democrats in the race.  In CD-26, Democrats make up 40.2% of registered voters, Republicans 35.7%, and NPP 19.2%.  If the Democratic vote is divided enough among the four Democrats or Parks eats up enough slices of the major party votes, this could send Parks into November.  In November, she could win, as this is a swing seat.  In a Brownley-Parks race, a Republican-NPP coalition could put Supervisor Parks in Congress.  In a Strickland-Parks race, a Democratic-NPP coalition could put Supervisor Parks in Congress.
  • 28th Assembly District: College District Trustee Chad Walsh
    Assemblyman Paul Fong (D-Cupertino) faces exactly one challenger to his re-election bid: West Valley-Mission Community College District Trustee Chad Walsh (NPP-Los Gatos).  In AD-28, Democrats make up 43.0% of registered voters, Republicans are 26.3%, and NPPs are 27.1%.  If Trustee Walsh can cobble together a solid Republican-NPP coalition or peel off enough of the Democratic vote, Walsh could upset Fong’s re-election bid to become the first independent elected to the Assembly in over half-a-century (several major party legislators, like Juan Arambula and Nathan Fletcher, became independents during their tenures but none were elected as independents).  Unseating an incumbent is a tall order, but it’s at least plausible for Trustee Walsh to pull it off.

Will Likely Advance to November But Won’t Be Elected

  • 19th Congressional District: Jay Blas Jacob Cabrera
    Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose) has three opponents in her bid for re-election: Republican Robert Murray, Republican Phat Nguyen, and NPP Jay Blas Jacob Cabrera.  Democrats make up 47.3% of CD-19’s registered voters, Republicans 22.6%, and NPPs are 26.3%.  With the Republican vote split two ways and NPP voters already outnumbering Republicans, it’s likely that Cabrera advances to November, where he’ll be stomped by incumbent Lofgren.
  • 23rd Congressional District: Terry Phillips
    House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) has two opponents in his bid for re-election: fellow Republican Eric Parker and NPP Terry Phillips, a radio reporter from a local NPR affiliate.  In CD-23, Republicans are 46.9% of registered voters, Democrats are 29.7%, and NPPs are 18.4%.  If he captures the votes of enough Democrats and NPP voters unwilling to vote for a Republican, Phillips will advance to November but lose handily to McCarthy.
  • 29th Congressional District: David Hernandez
    In this open seat, City Councilman Tony Cardenas (D-Los Angeles) faces off against fellow Democrat Richard Valdez and NPP David Hernandez.  Democrats make up 54.6% of registered voters in CD-29, Republicans are 16.4%, and NPPs are 22.3%.  If Hernandez captures the votes of enough Republicans and NPP voters unwilling to vote for a Democrat (and Valdez doesn’t eat up too much of the Democratic vote), Hernandez will advance to November but be crushed by Cardenas.
  • 20th Assembly District: Mayor Mark Green
    There are five candidates for the open AD-20 seat: Republican Hayward Unified School District Board Member Luis Reynoso, NPP Union City Mayor Mark Green, Democratic Hayward Councilman Bill Quirk, Democrat Jennifer Ong, and Democrat Sarabjit Kaur Cheema.  In AD-20, Democrats are 54.2% of registered voters, Republicans are 17.1%, and NPPs are 22.4%.  If Mayor Green captures the independent vote and/or is able to peel off enough of the Democratic or Republican vote, he could slip in to November but be defeated in his face-off against Quirk.
  • 24th Assembly District: Joseph Antonelli Rosas
    Assemblyman Rich Gordon (D-Menlo Park) faces three opponents: Fellow Democrat Geby Espinosa, Republican Chengzhi “George” Yang, and NPP Joseph Antonelli Rosas.  In AD-24, Democrats make up 47.6% of registered voters, Republicans 21.8%, and NPPs 27.3%.  If independents flock to Rosas, he could advance to November to face off against Gordon.

Decent Shot at Advancing to November

  • 13th Congressional District: Marilyn M. Singleton
    Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) has two opponents in her bid for re-election: fellow Democrat Justin Jelincic and NPP Marilyn M. Singleton.  Democrats make up 63.9% of registered voters in CD-13, Republicans are 8.6%, and NPPs are 19.9%, so if Lee holds enough of her own party’s vote, she’ll face Singleton rather than Jelincic in November and win summarily in a landslide.
  • 42nd Congressional District: Curt Novak
    Congressman Ken Calvert (R-Corona) has five opponents in his bid for re-election: fellow Republican Eva Jones, fellow Republican Clayton Thibodeau, Democrat Cliff Smith, Democrat Michael Williamson, and NPP Curt Novak.   Republicans make up 45.2% of registered CD-42 voters, Democrats are 29.9%, and NPPs are 19.9%.  If the Democratic vote is split enough, Novak could end up getting more votes than any of the Democrats and advance to November to face off against Calvert.
  • 46th Congressional District: Jorge Rocha
    Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez (D-Santa Ana) has four opponents in her bid for re-election: Republican Jerry Hayden, Republican John Cullum, Republican Pat Garcia, and NPP Jorge Rocha.   Democrats make up 44.2% of registered CD-46 voters, Republicans are 31.2%, and NPPs are 20.5%.  If the Republican vote is split enough, or if he peels off enough of the Republican vote, Rocha could end up getting more votes than any of the Republicans and advance to November to face off against Sanchez.
  • 10th Assembly District: Joe Boswell
    Assemblyman Michael Allen (D-Santa Rosa) has six opponents: San Rafael Councilman Marc Levine (a fellow Democrat), fellow Democrat Alex Easton-Brown, fellow Democrat Christian Gunderson, fellow Democrat Connie Wong, Republican Peter Mancus, and NPP Joe Boswell.  In AD-10, Democrats make up 53.7% of registered voters, Republicans 19.7%, and NPPs 21.7%.  If Boswell manages to peel off some of the Republican or Democratic vote, Boswell could advance to November to be crushed by Allen.

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