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CRA Recap: Bates, Ming Unanimously Endorsed; Steel, Brough, Harper Endorsed; CD-45 Deadlock

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 1, 2014

CRA Logo

OC Political live-blogged the Orange County CRA endorsements this morning.  Here’s the quicky recap for those of you who just want the results:

CRA Endorsements

  • Supervisor Patricia Bates was endorsed by unanimous consent for the 36th Senate District.
  • Laguna Niguel Councilman Robert Ming was endorsed by unanimous consent for the 5th Supervisorial District.
  • Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel was endorsed for the 2nd Supervisorial District, defeating Assemblyman Allan Mansoor 28-9.
  • Dana Point Councilman Bill Brough was endorsed for the 73rd Assembly District, defeating Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Jesse Petrilla 12-3, with former Laguna Niguel Councilman Paul Glaab receiving no votes.
  • Huntington Beach Mayor Matt Harper was endorsed for the 74th Assembly District, defeating Newport Beach Councilman Keith Curry 14-3.
  • In the 45th Congressional District, Supervisor John Moorlach and Senator Mimi Walters fought through three rounds, but the convention deadlocked, so no endorsement was made in this race.  In the first round, Walters got 13 votes while Moorlach got 12, and retired United States Marine Corps Colonel Greg Raths received no votes.  Walters and Moorlach advance to a second-round run-off, in which they tied with 12 votes each.  In the third and final round, Walters got 14 votes while Moorlach got 9 votes.  It required a 2/3 vote to endorse, so CD-45 failed to produce an endorsement.

All other races on the June ballot will be considered in three weeks on Saturday, March 22.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 36th Senate District, 45th Congressional District, 5th Supervisorial District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Live from CRA Endorsing Convention

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 1, 2014

We’re live from the Orange County CRA endorsing convention in Buena Park.

2ND SUPERVISORIAL DISTRICT

First up is Second Supervisorial District. Apologies to Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel and Assemblyman Allan Mansoor as a technical glitch delayed the start of my liveblogging, so we don’t have coverage of their opening speeches.

This one is a long ballot with seven units eligible to vote: Costa Mesa, Fountain Valley, Huntington Beach, West Orange County, Stanton, Corona Del Mar, and Buena Park.

28 votes were cast for Michelle Steel.
9 votes were cast for Allan Mansoor.

STEEL ENDORSED.

45TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Next up is the 45th Congressional District.

First to speak is Supervisor John Moorlach. He speaks about his tenure in CRA, including as a unit president and state assistant treasurer. He says he’s pro-life and pro-death penalty. He speaks about how he entered elected office to run against Democrat Robert Citron. He says all five Republicans who were members of the Board of Supervisors back then opposed his candidacy, so Moorlach is not afraid to stand up to the powers that be. He speaks about the OC bankruptcy. He speaks about his record reducing medical unfunded liability. He speaks about his ordinance that banned PLAs in County government (except when mandated by the federal government). He speaks about stopping County funding of Planned Parenthood. He spoke of his charter amendment requiring retroactive pension increases to be approved by voters. He speaks of his opposition to eminent domain. He speaks of his opposition to the Anaheim streetcar. He notes his endorsement by Tom McClintock.

Don Gilchrist asks how many CPAs will be in Congress if Moorlach wins. Moorlach takes the opportunity to note that he’s reduced the number of County employees. He says there are two CPAs, and he will increase it by 50%.

A delegate asks about medical marijuana. Moorlach says he is open to use of medical marijuana for legitimate medical purposes. He speaks of his vote for medical marijuana ID cards and of his late brother-in-law’s use of medical marijuana.

Greg Raths sent Bob Schuman to represent him due to Raths being at his sister-in-law’s funeral. Schuman says Raths is not a politician nor is he beholden to lobbyists. Raths served in the military. Schuman says Raths is the only Republican candidate who actually lives in CD-45. He says Raths was Assistant Chief of Staff for the White House Military Office. He says Raths wants to cut the size and scope of government to help businesses create jobs. He notes Raths’s wife teaches at UCI and their two daughters are teachers, and Raths supports local control by getting the federal government out of education. He says Raths supports increased vocational education. He says Raths wants to repeal Obamacare. Schuman says Obama is killing the American Dream, and he says Raths wants to get government out of people’s way to restore the American Dream.

A delegate asks if it’d be productive to have a vote to repeal Obamacare since there were already 34 failed votes.

Schuman says we need to elect more people who oppose Obamacare to

Senator Mimi Walters talks about her four children: three in college and one high school senior. She’s been married 25 years. She speaks of her activism. She speaks of being elected to the Laguna Niguel City Council while pregnant in 1996. She speaks of her tough race to be successfully elected to the Assembly and her race for the Senate. She speaks of her 100% rating from the CA Taxpayers Assn and the Pro-Life Council. She speaks of her “A” rating from both the CRA and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. She says she wants to cut taxes to spur consumer spending to help the economy. She says we need to pay off the national debt. She says we need the Keystone Pipeline and a strong national defense. She says that Obamacare needs to be repealed and reformed. She notes she’s been campaigning every single day since John Campbell retired. She notes endorsements from most of the CA Congressional delegation and various local endorsements.

Benita Gagne asks if Walters supports impeaching Obama.

Walters says it’s more important to pass issues by working with Democrats rather than making herself less relevant by trying to impeach Obama.

Jen Beall thanks Walters for her support in Capistrano Unified School District and asks her what she plans to do to fight Obamacare.

Walters says Republicans are working on a thoughtful plan that she was told about when she was in DC.

A delegate asks if she’s accepted any union money.

Walters says she has not accepted any union money from the $700,000 she raised and notes neither of her opponents has more than $50,000.

In the 45th Congressional District, Rancho Santa Margarita, Saddleback, Anaheim, Tustin, and Orange/Villa Park are voting.

There is no endorsement after the first round because no candidate has reached 2/3. The vote totals are not announced.

There are 12 votes for Moorlach, 13 votes for Walters, and no votes for Raths.

Walters says she is the true conservative with a proven record. She says she has an A+ CRA rating. She says she has stood up to Democrats in the Legislature. She says she is endorsed by Congressmen Ed Royce, Darrell Issa, Doug La Malfa, and Duncan Hunter.

Moorlach says the County was forced to implement Obamacare. He says he successfully opposed a federal grant to advertise Obamacare’s anti-obesity efforts. Moorlach says he will be a hardworking accountant who will fight to cut the budget and taxes. He says he fought against the 405 toll road as a double tax.

There is now a tie, with 12 votes each for Moorlach and Walters.

Moorlach speaks of Orange County’s improved credit rating and the nation’s poor credit. He says his pollster did President Ronald Reagan’s pollster. Moorlach says the polling shows he is ahead of Walters. He says he will ramp up fundraising. He says he will be a great Congressman. He says CRA should put one of its own members in Congress.

Walters speaks of her ratings. She says she “badly wants” the CRA endorsement. She says she is the only candidate who has to go to Sacramento during the week making it difficult for her to campaign in the district. She says she tried to reach out to the delegates that she doesn’t know really well. She says she has been a grassroots volunteer for 20 years.

Walters received 14 votes, Moorlach received 9 votes.

NO ENDORSEMENT IN CD-45.

74TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

Huntington Beach Mayor Matt Harper speaks about his activism since the Doris Allen recall. He speaks about his efforts to defeat school bonds, taxes, the beach fire ring ban, and the 405 toll lanes.

A delegate asks about amnesty and about the Lincoln Club’s immigration plan.

Harper says he opposes both.

Newport Beach Councilman Keith Curry did not fill out the CRA questionnaire. He notes he’s been to CRA conventions since 1974, one year before Harper ewas born. Curry speaks of his work with Paul Gann to pass the Gann Limit. He speaks of working for the Reagan Administration. He speaks of joining a private company that he eventually co-owned and grew to 400 employees. He speaks of his work at Concordia University with Christian students. He speaks of his passage of pension reform in Newport Beach, including an award from the OC Taxpayers Association for the City. He speaks of his work getting a Ronald Reagan statue erected. He speaks of protecting Prop 13 and opposing the split role. He speaks of opposing tax increases and supporting tax cuts. He speaks of opposing AB 109 prison realignment. He speaks of supporting local control for beach fire rings.

Former Newport Beach Councilman Dick Nichols asks about the Newport Beach budget being balanced via pension accounting gimmicks.

Curry says the state changed the CalPERS assumption rate, but Newport Beach still has a balanced budget regardless of the CalPERS moving target.

A delegate asks about amnesty and about the Lincoln Club immigration plan.

Curry says he’s a longtime Lincoln Club member, he opposes amnesty, and he supports immigration reform.

For the 74th Assembly District, the CRA units voting are Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Saddleback, and Corona Del Mar.

There were 14 votes for Matt Harper, and 3 votes for Keith Curry.

HARPER ENDORSED.

36TH SENATE DISTRICT

Supervisor Pat Bates says she’s probably Orange County’s longest serving elected official, but she shouldn’t be considered a career politican. She was a social worker helping people get a hand up, not a hand out. She speaks of her husband’s business and their battles against government regulation. She speaks of needing to break the Democrats’ supermajority. She speaks of the need for Sacramento politicians to be in touch with their districts. She speaks of her conservative activism. She speaks of founding Laguna Niguel. She speaks of supporting CCWs. She speaks of opposing the “nanny government” social host ordinance. She speaks of being supported by conservative organizations over the years. She says she is currently unopposed but doubts she will be unopposed by the end of filing.

Craig Alexander asks about the Board of Supervisors vote on Planned Parenthood funding.

Bates thanks Craig for his help in her efforts with Moorlach to stop the Planned Parenthood funding. She speaks of working with Moorlach to turn down the Obamacare grant for food pyramids. She speaks of her disabled relative who lost health insurance for a month because of Obamacare.

Chandra Chell asks about Joel Anderson’s bill to protect the 4th Amendment.

Bates says she’s supportive of Anderson’s efforts.

BATES ENDORSED BY UNANIMOUS CONSENT.

5TH SUPERVISORIAL DISTRICT

Laguna Niguel Councilman Robert Ming speaks of being in the trenches with conservative activists. He speaks of changes coming to the Board of Supervisors, with Bates and Moorlach terming out and Janet Nguyen running for the 34th Senate District. He speaks of his themes of integrity, fiscal responsibility, and leadership. Laguna Niguel keeps its promises to voters. Laguna Niguel has no debt rating because it has no debt. He speaks about the County’s labor contract negotiations. He speaks of his business experience negotiating contracts. He speaks of founding the ACC-OC to leave the leftward League of Cities. He speaks of creating the Pension Reform Committee as ACC-OC’s first committee. He speaks of his endorsements by numerous conservative officials. He notes that neither of his opponents have sought the endorsement.

MING ENDORSED BY UNANIMOUS CONSENT.

73RD ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Jesse Petrilla sent a representative because he is with his National Guard unit. Petrilla says he is a strong voice for fiscal conservatism and social conservatism. He declined the City Council health and retirement benefits. He speaks of being attacked for charges from his troubled youth of charges he beat. He speaks of serving in the military in Afghanistan, of being a husband, and of being a father.

Rancho Santa Margarita Mayor Tony Beall asks about Petrilla’s 2001 felony convictions and about his untruthfulness in 2014 about the incident and that he didn’t beat the charges because he was sent to jail and the charges were expunged not beaten and that he is still required by the Court to disclose the convictions.

The spokeswoman says 30-year-old Petrilla has done a 180 since he was 17 years old when these incidents occurred. She points to second chances for Jim Rogan, Darrell Issa, and Tony Rackauckas.

Dana Point Councilman Bill Brough speaks of his service in the United States Army as a paratrooper on active duty. He speaks of his work in Congressman Chris Cox’s office and of his work in the White House. He speaks of fighting the establishment when he was elected to the Dana Point Council, including his efforts to stop a Dana Point plastic bag ordinance. He speaks of the Dana Point Town Center plan where new public-private partnerships are building six projects after years of stagnation. He speaks of his record on pension reform. He speaks of ending hand outs. He homeschools his son. He pulled himself up by his bootstraps. He says AD-73 is the second-safest Republican seat in the Assembly and should be occupied by someone who will help elect more Republicans.

Former Laguna Niguel Councilman Paul Glaab says all the AD-73 candidates are friends running for something not against each other. Glaab says he’s Catholic, pro-life, and a lifelong Republican. Glaab says Walters, Bates, and Ming all stole his thunder since they all spoke about the record in Laguna Niguel. He notes Laguna Niguel is one of the best run cities in America. He says he is pro-gun and pro-2nd Amendment. He says government needs to be reined in. He says it is important to be pro-business. Glaab calls CRA an “association.”

For the 73rd Assembly District, the units voting are Rancho Santa Margarita, Saddleback, and South Orange County.

There were 12 votes for Brough, 3 votes for Petrilla, and no votes for Glaab.

BROUGH ENDORSED.

Convention adjourns to March 22.

TODAY’S ENDORSEMENTS

Supe-5: Ming (Unanimously)
SD-36: Bates (Unanimously)

Supe-2: Steel
AD-73: Brough
AD-74: Harper

CD-45: No endorsement

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 36th Senate District, 45th Congressional District, 5th Supervisorial District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments »

AD-74: Land of Small Warchests

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 3, 2014

Well, campaign finance figures are out, and OC Political will be doing our signature in-depth slicing and dicing of campaign finance numbers in the coming days.  Last week, we had several candidates send over press releases touting their fundraising prowess.  Some even asked us explicitly to post their releases.  We opted not to post any of those until we could examine the numbers ourselves.  Indeed, six months ago, I admonished readers to check the numbers against the press release claims in a post on AD-55.  Some candidates are spinning wildly, but there are other times when candidates’ numbers actually gel well with their press releases.  The only way to figure out which is the case is to look at the numbers.

So on to the numbers…

First up is the race for AD-74 to replace Allan Mansoor, who is leaving the Assembly to run for the 2nd District Supervisor’s seat, being vacated by the termed out John Moorlach.  AD-74 consists of Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, Newport Beach, the southern half of Huntington Beach, and portions of Irvine.  There are four declared Republican candidates: Huntington Beach Mayor Matt Harper, Newport Beach Councilman Keith Curry, Assemblyman Travis Allen’s District Director Emanuel Patrascu, and H&R Block Franchise Associate Karina Onofre.

AD-74 Candidates Matt Harper, Keith Curry, Emanuel Patrascu, and Karina Onofre

AD-74 Candidates Matt Harper, Keith Curry, Emanuel Patrascu, and Karina Onofre

The numbers in AD-74 show this is anybody’s race.  None of the candidates have particularly large warchests.  Multiple candidates in races for other offices have raised more than all the AD-74 candidates combined.  Curry and Patracu have the largest warchests (or perhaps “least small warchests” would be more appropriate).  Patrascu is ahead of Curry by a few thousand dollars, but Curry is raising money at a faster pace.  Patrascu had more donors but Curry’s donors gave larger amounts on average.  Harper is in debt, and Onofre didn’t reach the threshold to trigger electronic filing.  (Actually, Harper didn’t reach the threshold to trigger electronic filing either, but he still opted to file an electronic report.)

Huntington Beach Mayor Matt Harper entered the race the third week of November.  He reported a $4,100 max-out contribution from Karen Harper on December 7.  Matt Harper loaned his own campaign $2,000 on Christmas Eve.

Newport Beach Councilman Keith Curry entered the race the first week of December.  On December 6, he transferred 20 contributions totaling $6,490 from his City Council account to his Assembly account.  During the rest of December, he raised $20,705 from 22 donors, plus another $495 from small unitemized donations.  His donations included $4,100 max-out contributions from the Orange County Business Council‘s BIZPAC and the campaign committee of former Senator Tom Harman.  He also reported $1,000 from Long Beach Councilman Gary DeLong (who was the unsuccessful Republican nominee in CD-47 in 2012 against Alan Lowenthal), $500 from former Newport Beach Mayor Tod Ridgeway, and $250 from Curry’s council colleague, Nancy Gardner.  If Curry can continue his pace of $21,200 per month, he will quickly amass the largest warchest in AD-74.  However, many candidates find their fundraising slows down after an initial burst after their campaigns launch when they pick up their low-hanging fruit donors; can Curry defy the odds?

Emanuel Patrascu, who is Assemblyman Travis Allen‘s District Director and was formerly on the staff of Senator Tom Harman, announced his official November 18 kick-off in September but had been raising money prior to his kick-off.  He reported $25,079 from 41 donors, plus another $1,266 from small unitemized donations.  His donations included $4,100 max-out contributions from businessmen Kieu Hoang and Buddy Molway.  He also reported $500 from Harman’s campaign committee in October and $2,000 in prior reporting periods, for a total of $2,500 from Tom Harman‘s committee.  He also reported $1,000 from former California Republican Party Chairman Mike Schroeder, $250 from the former Assembly campaign committee of Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Steve Baric (the CRP’s Immediate Past Vice Chair), and $150 from the campaign committee of Westminster Mayor Tri Ta.  Patrascu loaned himself $5,000 on New Year’s Eve, $1,500 in June, and $18,700 in 2012.  He raised $17,600 during the same period that Curry raised $21,200 (Patrascu raised $2,750 after his campaign kick-off but before Curry entered the race).  If Patrascu can continue his pace of $17,600 per month, then he will be able to build a sizeable warchest. As I said with Curry, however, many candidates find their fundraising slows down after an initial burst after their campaigns launch when they pick up their low-hanging fruit donors; can Patrascu defy the odds?

Businesswoman Karina Onofre, who previously ran unsuccessfully for Santa Ana City Council in 2012, entered the race Thanksgiving week.  She did not file her campaign finance report electronically, as she did not reach the $25,000 threshold to require electronic filing.

For visual learners:

Candidate 1/1/13-6/30/13
Contributions
7/1/13-12/31/13
Contributions
Transfers Candidate
Loans
Unpaid
Bills
Expenditures Cash on Hand
(COH)
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
& Loans
Harper N/A $4,100 $0 $2,000 $1,927 $3,916 $2,185 $258 -($1,742)
Curry N/A $21,200 $6,490 $100,000 $0 $681 $127,009 $127,009 $27,009
Patrascu $8,950 $26,345 $0 $26,700 $551 $2,083 $59,942 $59,391 $32,691
Onofre N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

Campaign finance reports for July 1-December 31, 2013 were due last week.

By the way, OC Political probably won’t detail individual donors in most races; it’s just that AD-74 had so few donors, it was doable.  In other races, the data is more voluminous.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments »

AD-74: Meet Candidates Curry, Harper, Onofre, Patrascu Tonight

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on January 9, 2014

This came over the wire from the Newport-Mesa Tea Party Patriots over the weekend:

Like us on Facebook!
YOU ARE WELCOME!

Come to NewportMesa Tea Party’s monthly meeting!

Admission is free (donations appreciated, online or at the meeting)

Find out who will be representing you in Allan Mansoor’s 74th Assembly District seat.

Hear the candidates’ visions for California and where they stand on the important issues facing our state today. Ask them questions – find out which candidate supports your values.

Matthew Harper Mayor Matthew Harper was elected to the Huntington Beach City Council by the voters on November 2, 2010. Mayor Matthew Harper also serves on the Board of Directors for the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA).
Karina Onofre was born and raised in Santa Ana, the first of four children, to a financially struggling, but hardworking family. Karina Onofre’s parents emigrated from Michoacan, Mexico in their late teens seeking a better life. They immigrated to Santa Ana, California and became legal U.S. Residents under President Ronald Reagan’s immigration reform in 1986.

Keith Curry Keith Curry, mayor of Newport Beach. Curry was appointed to the Newport Beach City Council in 2006 and will be termed out in 2016. He is the director of the Center for Public Policy at Concordia University, where he also teaches public police and leadership courses

Emanuel Patrascu, District Director for Assemblyman Travis Allen, took the lead role in organizing our community to save our beach bonfires. Previously, as a Policy Advisor in the State Senate, he was instrumental in helping craft legislation to deal with California’s water and transportation infrastructure needs. Emanuel served as the President of the Orange County Young Republicans and is serving on the advisory committee for the Orange County Trauma Intervention Program and on the Board of Directors of the Guard a Heart Foundation.

When:  Thursday, January 9, 2014

Regular meetings held the 2nd Thursday of each month

Where: Halecrest Park Swim and Tennis Club

3107 Killybrooke Ln Costa Mesa, CA 92626

http://www.halecrestpark.com/

Time:    6:30pm to 8:30pm

RSVP and Become a member:www.newportmesateaparty.com



 

Copyright © 2014 Newport Mesa Tea Party, All rights reserved.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

AD-55 & AD-74: Assembly Candidates Ascend to Mayorships

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 4, 2013

Yorba Linda Mayor Craig Young

Yorba Linda Mayor
Craig Young

Huntington Beach Mayor Matt Harper

Huntington Beach Mayor
Matt Harper

In a handy tool for their State Assembly campaigns, AD-55 Candidate Craig Young became Mayor of Yorba Linda last night and AD-74 Candidate Matt Harper became Mayor of Huntington Beach on Monday night.

Being mayor during the same year as an Assembly candidacy lends itself to a few helpful advantages:

  • “Mayor” is stronger than “Councilman” as a ballot designation.  Many voters do not realize that most California mayors are effectively the chair of the city council; these voters instead think of executive mayors, like the types in Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, New York City, and Chicago.  (For the political scientists out there, many California voters believe they live in a city with a “strong mayor-council” system when in reality, most California cities have “council-manager” systems.)
  • Mayors tend to get more press coverage than councilmembers, as reporters are more likely to quote a mayor than a councilmember.
  • Mayors get more of the spotlight at community events.  Rather than asking five or seven councilmembers to speak at an event, most organizers will simply ask the mayor to speak.  After all, people attending a community event would generally prefer to hear a speech from one politician rather than speeches from about a half-dozen politicians.

At this point in the AD-55 race, Young’s opponents for the Republican nomination are Diamond Bar Councilwoman Ling-Ling Chang and Walnut Valley Unified School Board Member Phillip Chen.  Chang will not be mayor during her Assembly bid, as Carol Herrera became Mayor of Diamond Bar last night.  AD-55 Incumbent Curt Hagman is termed out.  You can find previous OC Political posts on the AD-55 race here.

Mayor Harper is the only elected official to have thrown his hat in the AD-74 ring as of this morning.  His two opponents for the Republican nomination are 2010 Laguna Beach City Council Candidate Emanuel Patrascu, whose day job is as District Director for State Assemblyman Travis Allen, and 2012 Santa Ana City Council Candidate Karina Onofre, whose day job is split between working for H&R Block and as a Field Representative for State Senator Bob Huff.  AD-74 Incumbent Allan Mansoor is running for Orange County Supervisor.  You can find previous OC Political posts on the AD-74 race here.

Posted in 55th Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Huntington Beach, Yorba Linda | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

AD-74 Watch: Karina Onofre Announces That She Is Running

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on November 26, 2013

74Yesterday, former Santa Ana City Council candidate Karina Onofre announced that she is running for the 74th Assembly District which is currently held by Allan Mansoor. Mansoor announced last week that he will not be seeking a third term, instead opting to battle Michelle Steel for the 2nd Supervisorial District, held by the termed out John Moorlach. This announcement by Onofre caught me completely off guard as I had not even heard any rumors about this.  When I told Chris Nguyen about this, his reaction was, “WHAT?!?!?!”  (On a related note, does anyone know how to replace a burst iPhone speaker?)

Running a race in AD-74 also presents totally different demographics and challenges than running a race for Santa Ana City Council. AD-74 consists of Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, and Newport Beach.  In Santa Ana, Republicans are at a distinct disadvantage in voter registration, thus making it less likely to draw a crowd of Republicans who will fight for a seat. Two Republicans who have been able to overpower the Democratic stranglehold on elected offices are Orange County Board of Education Trustee Robert Hammond and Santa Ana Unified School District Trustee Cecilia Iglesias. (In the interest of full disclosure, Custom Campaigns served as the sole campaign consultants to both of these candidates.  Custom Campaigns is also the firm that owns OC Political.)

In AD-74, Republicans have a 12.6% registration advantage, which will lead to a rather bloody primary fight if last election is any indicator. In the 2012 Primary Election, Leslie Daigle (and the PACs supporting her) spent gobs of cash to fight incumbent Allan Mansoor by bloodying him up with lots of negative mail and negative television ads. Mansoor not only made it to the run-off in November, but he easily came in first place, and Daigle finished a distant third place:

MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 74th District                                   
Completed Precincts: 392 of 392
                 Vote Count                 Percentage                
ALLAN R. MANSOOR 33,319 43.5%
ROBERT RUSH 25,120 32.8%
LESLIE DAIGLE 18,207 23.8%

These results would not be surprising if it weren’t for the fact that Charles Munger Jr. spent almost $500,000 on Daigle’s behalf to try to get her to the November run-off. Even Bob Rush, who was a Dem sacrificial lamb in this race, spent almost $100,000. These numbers are stunning in that this much was spent trying to beat an incumbent and not for an open seat. Generally, candidates will spend more money trying to win an open seat as opposed to trying to unseat an incumbent (since incumbency is so tough to overcome).

While we are still looking at 2012, Onofre had a rough time against Roman Reyna last election in the Santa Ana City Council Ward 5 race:

CITY OF SANTA ANA Member, City Council, Ward 5                                   
Completed Precincts: 108 of 108
                 Vote Count                 Percentage                
ROMAN A. REYNA 32,419 61.8%
KARINA ONOFRE 20,065 38.2%

I’m going to be very honest: Onofre only raised $3,250 in her race for Santa Ana City Council, and this was for an open seat! AD-74 already has a field of strong candidates with the ability to raise money. Onofre has no name identification in AD-74, has no fundraising base, and will face allegations of being a carpetbagger.

Huntington Beach Councilman Matt Harper, AD-72 staffer Emanuel Patrascu, and former CRP Treasurer Keith Carlson have already expressed an interest in this race. Harper is the early front-runner in this race since Huntington Beach is the second-most populated city in AD-74 (Irvine is the most populated, but no current candidate is based out of Irvine). Patrascu is not very well-known in AD-74 and hails from Laguna Beach (only about 6% of the population in AD-74), but he does work for Travis Allen and might get some decent help from his boss, who would want to get an ally elected to the Assembly. Carlson will likely have a ton of establishment support and will be able to raise quite a bit of money through his connections as former CRP Treasurer.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the real wildcard here is Orange County Supervisor John Moorlach. He is set to announce his candidacy for the 45th Congressional District at some point very soon. If for whatever reason, Moorlach decides that CD-45 is not the right fit (I actually think that he can win), he could easily destroy anyone in the field in AD-74 (assuming he doesn’t just clear the field outright) and walk into the Assembly.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments »

AD74 Watch: Matt Harper Angling to Run

Posted by Dominus on May 10, 2013

With the news of Assemblyman Allan Mansoor possibly giving up his seat to run for Supervisor against BOE Member Michelle Steel, an ambitious and eager politician by the name is Matthew Harper is already busy working behind the scene to secure support for a potential campaign.

Matt Harper was elected to the Huntington Beach City Council in 2010.  He is slated to become mayor next year if his Democratic colleagues will honor the rotation system.

Harper briefly ran for assembly in 2012 before dropping out and eventually backing Troy Edgar.  That last race demonstrated Harper’s inability to raise serious campaign cash needed for an assembly campaign.  Here is the text from an OC Register article that reported Harper’s last assembly race back in 2012

WHO HAS THE MONEY IN THE NEW 72ND ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

Five candidates have tossed their hats in the ring for the 72nd Assembly race, but only three are financially committed to running for a seat.

Huntington Beach City Councilman Matthew Harper, Westminster Councilman Tyler Diep and Little Saigon businessman Long Pham are vying for the newly drawn district that would represent parts of Huntington Beach, Seal Beach, Fountain Valley, Los Alamitos, Garden Grove and Santa Ana.

Harper has $22,853 in funds for the race, according to his campaign statement covering Jan. 1- Dec. 30.

His biggest donors include Rainbow Disposal, and he has also taken out a loan for $7,500.

Diep’s campaign filings show he has not taken out any loans and has collected $137,049 since January 2011.

Pham, who is making his fourth attempt to claim a seat, has not collected any contributions but instead has taken out a $100,000 loan to fund his campaign.

I would think Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle and former CRP treasurer Keith Carlson are the more formidable candidates should they decide to run.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Atlas PAC May 2012 Newsletter & Voter Guide

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 18, 2012

This came over the wire from Atlas PAC on Wednesday (and was re-sent to us by a helpful reader yesterday)…

Atlas PAC Newsletter & Voter Guide   May 16, 2012 
In This Issue
Calendar of Events
Candidate Forum Photos
Stop the Special Interest Money Now Event
June Primary Voter Guide
Atlas PAC Director Featured on Rick Reiff’s Show

Calendar of Events

Stop the Special Interest Money Now Reception

May 23, 2012

Irvine, CA

Del Mar Day at the Races

July 28, 2012

San Diego, CA

The Atlas PAC Board
Lee M. Lowrey
ChairmanChandra Chell
Vice ChairmanDave BartelsJohn Draper

Mary DreyerKurt English
Kathryn FeatherJoe Ludlow

Jeff Mathews

Walter Myers III

Ben Pugh

Stephanie Olsen

Sarah Soss

Mike Tripp

Candidate ForumCandidate Forum 98aCandidate Forum 46aCandidate Forum 45a

Candidate Forum 30a

Candidate Forum 48a

Candidate Forum 103a

Candidate Forum 70a

Candidate Forum 94

Candidate Forum 68a

Like us on Facebook

 Dear,

With the June Primary Election just around the corner, Atlas PAC has updated our list of endorsed candidates for local, state and national elected office.  As always, we will continue to present to our membership candidates that practice our core values of limited government, free market, low taxation, and individual liberty.
Join us this month as we host a fundraising reception for the Stop the Special Interest Money Now Initiative featuring columnist Steve Greenhut and Chapman Law School Professor John Eastman.    Please mark your calendar for our upcoming events and we hope to see you soon.

Atlas PAC Mission Statement

The Atlas PAC mission is to create an environment of business professionals that believe in the ideals of limited government, free market enterprise, low taxation, and individual liberty to associate, network, and socialize with like-minded individuals. Through this association, the Atlas PAC supports like-minded candidates and issues through its monetary and political support.

StopSpecialInterest v4A

June Primary Voter Guide
National Ted Cruz – U.S. Senate, TXJeff Flake – U.S. Senate, AZ

George Allen – U.S. Senate, VA

Josh Mandell – U.S. Senate, OH

Richard Mourdock – U.S. Senate, IN

Jason Chaffetz – US Congress, UT

Eric Cantor – US Congress, VA

Paul Ryan – US Congress, WI

Allen West – US Congress, FL

Michele Bachmann – US Congress, MN

California

 

Tom McClintock – U.S. Congress District 4

Tony Strickland – U.S. Congress District 26

Ed Royce – U.S. Congress District 39

John Webb – US Congress District 45

Jerry Hayden – US Congress District 46

Gary DeLong – US Congress District 47

Dana Rohrabacher – US Congress District 48

Darrell Issa – US Congress District 49

Duncan Hunter, Jr. – US Congress District 50

Bill Emerson – State Senate District 23

Bob Huff – State Senate District 29

Jeff Miller – State Senate District 31

Mimi Walters – State Senate District 37

Tim Donnelly – State Assembly District 33

Mike Morrell – State Assembly District 40

Curt Hagman – State Assembly District 55

Eric Linder – State Assembly District 60

Joe Ludwig – State Assembly District 61

Chris Norby – State Assembly District 65

Craig Huey – State Assembly District 66

Phil Paule – State Assembly District 67

Don Wagner – State Assembly District 68

Diane Harkey – State Assembly District 73

Allan Mansoor – State Assembly District 74

Rocky Chavez – State Assembly District 76

Carl DeMaio – San Diego Mayor

Proposition 28 – No

Proposition 29 – No

Orange County   

Janet Nguyen – OC Supervisor, District 1

Robert Hammond– Orange County Board of Education, Area 1
Ken Williams– Orange County Board of Education, Area 3
Greg Sebourn – Fullerton City Council

Ethan Temianka – Mesa Water District

Orange County Republican Party Central Committee

55th AD – Tim Shaw, Jim Domen, Desare Ferraro

65th AD – Baron Night, Shawn Nelson, Greg Sebourn, Steve Hwangbo, Henry Charoen, Pat Shuff

68th AD – Jon Dumitru, Ken Williams, Lynn Schott, Walter Myers III, Mark Bucher, Denis Bilodeau

69th AD – Thomas Gordon, Charles Hart, Robert Hammond, Lupe Moreno, Cuong Sinh Cao

72nd AD – Janet Nguyen, Dean Grose, Matthew Harper, Mark McCurdy, Dennis Catron, John Briscoe

73rd AD – Chandra Chell, Mike Munzing, Mary Young, Tony Beall, Linda Barnes, Greg Woodard, Jon Fleischman

74th AD – Pick among the following:  John Draper, Jeff Mathews, Allan Bartlett, John Warner, Bill Dunlap, Scott Baugh, Scott Peotter, Rhonda Rohrabacher, Emily Sanford, Christina Shea, Don Hansen, T.J. Fuentes

Atlas PAC Director Featured on Rick Reiff’s SoCal Insider Show
Walter Myers III Participates in Occupy Vs. Tea Party Debate
walter - rick reiff show
Click to watch video
Atlas PAC Director Walter Myers III debates with an Occupy Los Angeles activist.  Watch as they discuss what their protest movements represent as well as their respective sides’ take on taxes, government, and capitalism.  Decide for yourself who the clear winner is for this debate.
About Atlas PAC

Atlas is a politically based membership organization made up of business, political, and community professionals who share a passion for free enterprise, limited government, reduced government regulatory burdens, low taxation, and individual liberty. Atlas furthers its ideals by funding candidates and causes who aggressively advocate the values of Atlas.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Fullerton, Mesa Consolidated Water District, Orange County Board of Education, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: Republican Central Committee AD 72

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 25, 2012

AD 72 not only has one of the most hotly contested races for Assembly but it also has one of the most hotly contested Central Committee races.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

The candidates include:

Janet Nguyen– She is currently the Orange County Supervisor from the 1st District and an incumbent on the Central Committee too. *Incumbent.

John W. Briscoe– John W. Briscoe is President of the Fountain Valley Republican Assembly and a CRA State Officer.  He is also a CPA on the Orange County Property Tax Appeals board and a past Chairman of the Fountain Valley Planning Commission.  (He is not Ocean View School District’s John F. Briscoe.)

Mark McCurdy– He is currently an elected member of the Fountain Valley Council and is serving as the Mayor Pro Tem. Also he is an incumbent on the Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Dennis R. Catron– I am not sure if it is the same person but according to a bit of research that I did a Dennis Catron used to be the Vice-Chairman of the OC GOP back in 1986.

Brian Hoops– According to some research, I couldn’t quite pinpoint it but their was a Brian Hoop linked to a Tea Party meet-up group.

Matthew Harper– An elected member of the Huntington Beach City Council nd current candidate for the 72nd Assembly District seat. *Incumbent.

Dean Grose– He s a former member of the Los Alamitos City Council who got into some hot water for his watermelon e-mail that he sent out. *Incumbent.

Kermit Marsh– He is a former member of the Westminster CIty Council who left because he chose to do so, not because of term limits or losing an election. *Incumbent.

Patrick Dooley– The second of the brothers Dooley to pull papers for this office. He currently has a profile up on the Campaign For Liberty website as well.

Michael Gates– I could find no information on him. He is listed as a Businessman/Attorney on the ballot.

Patricia Ross– Although I was unable to find any political information out about her, she is involved in charity work with local schools.

Diane A. Lenning– She is a perennial candidate for the office of California State Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Steve A. Nagel– Currently an elected member of the Fountain Valley City Council and the OC GOP Central Committee. *Incumbent.

Mary Tuong Van Pham– This is the wife of Assembly candidate Long Pham. She will definitely help boost the name ID for Long Pham.

The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:

1. Janet Nguyen
2. Kermit Marsh
3. Steve Nagel
4. Mark McCurdy
5. Matthew Harper
6. John W. Briscoe

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Central Committee Races Finalized

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on March 12, 2012

The OC GOP Central Committee races have been finalized.

Here are the candidates that qualified for the ballot (top 6 win in each district):

55th Assembly District

Brett Barbre                  Appointed Incumbent
Jim Domen                   Pastor
Karla Downing             Small Business Owner
Desare Ferraro             Small Business Consultant
Peggy Huang                Deputy Attorney General
Connie Lanzisera         Small Business Owner
Robert Lauten
Brenda McCune           Businesswoman/Childrens Advocate
Tim Shaw                      Mayor, City of La Habra
Dennis R. White          Mechanical Engineer

65th Assembly District

Samuel “Sam” Han      Appointed Incumbent
Steve Hwangbo             Councilman/Businessman/Father
Jerry Jackson                Retired Aerospace Engineer
Sou Moua                       Businessman
Shawn Nelson               Orange County Supervisor
Baron Night                   Incumbent
Greg Sebourn                Businessman/Educator
David John Shawver   Mayor Pro Tem
Pat Shuff                        Incumbent
Henry Charoen             Mayor/Businessman
Alexandria Coronado  Small Business Owner

68th Assembly District

Denis Bilodeau              Mayor Pro Tem
James Brownfield         Business Owner
Mark William Bucher     Incumbent
Steven S. Choi                  Irvine City Councilman
Jon Dumitru                     City Councilman
Marcia Gilchrist               Incumbent
Ray Grangoff                    Incumbent
Jeffrey Lalloway              Irvine Councilmember/Businessman
Joshua Robert Morales  Retail Sales Associate
Walter H. Myers, III       Software Consultant
Noel Stone Parrish          Businesswoman
Deborah Pauly                 Councilwoman, City of Villa Park
Lynn Schott                      Entrepreneur/Educator
Todd Spitzer                     Businessman/Victims Advocate
Scott “Scotty” Voigts       Lake Forest City Councilman
Fred M. Whitaker            City of Orange Councilman/Businessman
Ken L. Williams Jr.         Member, Orange County Board of Education
Nick Wilson                      Small Business Owner

69th Assembly District

Cuong Sinh Cao                            Incumbent
Bryan Carter                                 Software Engineer
Gwen A. Dyrud                             Appointed Incumbent
Brett Elliott Franklin                   Incumbent
Thomas Anthony Gordon           Incumbent
Robert Morris Hammond           Business Owner/Teacher
Charles Hart                                  Appointed Incumbent
Lupe Moreno                                 Office Specialist
Glen Stroud                                    Retired Recreation Supervisor
Timothy “Tim” Ryan Whitacre  Incumbent

72nd Assembly District

John W. Briscoe            Certified Public Accountant
Dennis R. Catron           Small Businessman
Patrick Dooley
Michael E. Gates             Businessman/Attorney
Dean Grose                      Small Business Owner
Matthew Harper             Huntington Beach City Councilman
Brian Hoops                    Special Needs Educator
Diane A. Lenning           Small Business Owner
Kermit Marsh                  Incumbent
Mark McCurdy                Fountain Valley City Councilmember
Steve A. Nagel                 Incumbent
Janet Nguyen                  Orange County Supervisor
Patricia Ross                    Homemaker
Mary Tuong Van Pham  Businesswoman

73rd Assembly District

Alice Anderson                   Incumbent
Nesa Anderson                   Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman
Linda Barnes                      Community Volunteer
Tony Beall                           Incumbent
Evan P. Chafee                   Marketing Sales/Representative
Chandra Chell                     Computer Systems Analyst
Nina R. Davar                     Export Assistant Manager
Norm Dickinson                 Retired Naval Officer
Mark Dobrilovic                 Financial Advisor
John C. Drew                      Author/Speaker/Consultant
Dave Duringer                    Gun Trust Attorney
Jon Steven Fleischman     Small Business Owner
Roy Fussell                          Realtor
Paul Hebbard                      Certified Public Accountant
Michael Kogus                    Business Owner
Steve Magdziak                   Small Business Owner
Mike Munzing                     Incumbent
Nancy Padberg                    Governing Board Member, South Orange Co. Community College District
Kevin Richardson               Plumbing Contractor
Eric Stolaski                         Small Business Owner
Greg Woodard                     Appointed Incumbent
Mary Young                          Incumbent

74th Assembly District

Jon Aiken                                Office Clerk
Allan Bartlett                          Incumbent
Scott Baugh                             Incumbent
John Draper                            Businessman
Bill Dunlap                              General Contractor
Thomas A. “T.J.” Fuentes    Businessman
Don Hansen                            Mayor, City of Huntington Beach
Daniel Marshall                      Attorney
Jeff Mathews                          Business Owner
Vanessa A. Matthews            Small Business Owner
Gary Morse                             Retired Business Owner
Richard “Dick” Palmer         Community Volunteer
Scott “Scotty” Peotter           Businessman/Legislative Analyst
Rhonda Rohrabacher           Small Business Owner
Emily Sanford                        Retired Navy Captain
Christina L. Shea                   Businesswoman
John Warner                          Incumbent

This is simply a list of the candidates that qualified for the ballot along with their ballot designations. After the alphabetical lottery we will make some predictions on who we think will actually win these races.

Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »