OC Political

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Posts Tagged ‘Phillip Chen’

CD-39: Which Republican Will Run for Ed Royce’s Seat?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 9, 2018

Cross-posted to OC Daily…

Congressman Ed Royce (R-Fullerton)

Congressman Ed Royce (R-Fullerton)

A political earthquake shook Orange County yesterday afternoon when Congressman Ed Royce (R-Fullerton) unexpectedly announced that he would not be running for re-election this year.  First elected to the California State Senate in 1982 and to the United States House of Representatives in 1992, Royce is the longest currently-serving elected official in partisan office in Orange County (and the third-longest currently-serving elected official in the County as a whole*).

There is a running joke in political circles that there must be Royce is secretly twins or triplets because of his ability to be in two or three places at once in his district.  Royce always kept a jam-packed calendar whenever he was returned to the district from Washington, DC.  His hard work in the district managed to allow him to win by double-digit margins in this swing district.  He developed his work ethic from his first election when he won a swing seat in the State Senate.  In every campaign for re-election to Congress, Royce would set up one of the largest campaign apparatuses in Orange County.  Royce also currently has the largest campaign warchest in Orange County, standing at $3.5 million.

So significant is Royce’s strength in the district that when he announced his retirement yesterday, the Cook Political Report moved CD-39 from “Leans Republican” to “Leans Democrat” skipping the “Toss Up” label entirely.

With the unexpected retirement of Royce, an Orange County political institution for over a quarter of a century, North Orange County and Southern Los Angeles County politicians (and perhaps some Chino Hills politicians) from both parties are scrambling to determine if they can run a viable campaign for this seat and if they’re willing to give up their existing seats in 2018.  While six Democrats were challenging Royce for CD-39, none have ever held elected office, so Democrats in elected office in CD-39 are now likely examining the chance to go for an unexpectedly open CD-39.  No Republican elected official was looking at CD-39 since Royce was expected to run for re-election.  Today, let’s look at the Republicans:

Shawn Nelson, Michelle Steel, Bob Huff, Phillip Chen, Ling-Ling Chang, Young Kim

Supervisor Shawn Nelson, Supervisor Michelle Steel, Former Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff, Assemblyman Phillip Chen, Former Assemblywoman Ling-Ling Chang, Former Assemblywoman Young Kim

  • Supervisor Shawn Nelson represents 45% of the voters of the 39th Congressional District.  Of the 367,000 registered voters in CD-39, Nelson represents 166,000 of them, who reside in the 4th Supervisorial District’s overlap with CD-39.  Nelson has deep roots in the district, having grown up in Fullerton, graduated from high school there, and even graduating from law school there.  He’s also a member of countless civic organizations in CD-39.  Nelson won three elections to the Fullerton City Council and two to the Orange County Board of Supervisors (and raised the necessary money to wage those campaigns).  As it happens, he is termed out from the Board in 2018.(The Supervisor who represents the second largest chunk of CD-39 behind Nelson is LA County Supervisor Janice Hahn, representing 82,000 CD-39 voters, or 22% of the district.  Considering that Hahn just left a safe Democratic Congressional district in 2016 to run for Supervisor, there is zero chance she runs for this seat.  Todd Spitzer, Curt Hagman, Hilda Solis, and Michelle Park Steel split the remainder, and no one expects Spitzer, Hagman, or Solis to run for this seat.)
  • Supervisor Michelle Park Steel is well-known in the large Korean-American community in CD-39 as well as in the district’s large Asian-American community.  She represented the Orange County and San Bernardino County portions of CD-39 when she won two elections to the State Board of Equalization.  Additionally, she is one of Orange County’s most prolific fundraisers and would have little trouble raising the significant sums of money needed to wage a campaign in one of the nation’s top swing seats.  (Of course, millions of dollars will pour into this seat on both sides, from IEs/SuperPACs, DCCC, NRCC, DNC, RNC, but it always helps when the candidate can raise significant sums.)  To run for CD-39, Steel would have to abandon her bid for re-election to the 2nd Supervisorial District, setting off a scramble for that seat.
  • Former State Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff represented 71% of CD-39 voters, with 262,000 of the 367,000 CD-39 voters residing in SD-29, which Huff termed out of in 2016.  Huff won three elections to the Diamond Bar City Council, two to the State Assembly, and two to the State Senate.  Diamond Bar is the largest LA County city in CD-39.  Though he lost his bid for the LA County Board of Supervisors, there are less than 200 voters who are in the overlap between CD-39 and that supervisorial district.  As a former Senate Republican Leader, he’s certainly capable of raising funds for this seat.
  • Assemblyman Phillip Chen represents 61% of CD-39 voters, with 225,000 of the 367,000 CD-39 voters also residing in AD-55.  Prior to his election to the Assembly, Chen won two elections to Diamond Bar’s Walnut Valley School Board.  Chen raised several hundred thousand dollars in his unsuccessful 2014 bid for AD-55 and his successful 2016 bid for AD-55.  However, Chen would be giving up a safe Assembly seat for a swing seat in Congress.  Chen is an Assemblyman because his predecessor gave up this safe Assembly seat for a swing seat in the State Senate.  Chen switching to CD-39 would also set off a scramble for AD-55.
  • Speaking of Chen’s predecessor, former Assemblywoman Ling-Ling Chang represented the same 61% of CD-39 that Chen does.  71% of CD-39 voters may recall Chang’s bid for SD-29 in 2016, when she narrowly lost to now-Senator Josh Newman.  Before her 2014 election to the Assembly, Chang won one election to the Walnut Valley Water Board and two elections to the Diamond Bar City Council.  She raised several hundred thousand dollars in her successful 2014 bid for AD-55 and a whopping $3 million in her unsuccessful 2016 bid for SD-29.  Chang grew up in Diamond Bar and is a graduate of Diamond Bar High School.  Chang is currently in the midst of her bid to be the replacement if Newman is recalled on June 5.  If Chang switched to the Congressional race, it would leave Fullerton Councilman Bruce Whitaker the leading Republican replacement candidate for Newman.  While legally possible to run in both the recall and the Congressional race, it is politically impossible to do so.
  • Former Assemblywoman Young Kim represented 35% of CD-39 voters, with 95,000 of the 367,000 CD-39 voters residing in AD-65.  However, Kim also holds the unique distinction of having worked for Royce for nearly 20 years before her election to the Assembly.  She had been his Director of Community Relations and Asian Affairs.  In 2014, Kim defeated Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva’s re-election bid, but in 2016, Quirk-Silva avenged herself by defeating Kim’s re-election bid.  Kim is certainly familiar with what a swing seat campaign entails, with her sheer number of volunteers and staff.  She raised $2 million in each of her two Assembly campaigns.  Kim is currently in the midst of her bid to replace the termed out Nelson to represent the Fourth District on the Board of Supervisors.  If Kim switched to the Congressional race, it would leave La Habra Mayor Tim Shaw the sole Republican candidate facing off against Democrat Joe Kerr, a former long-time firefighters’ union president, for Supervisor (other Democrats running for the seat would presumably be eliminated by the voters in the June primary).

Let the games begin!

 

*The longest-serving elected official currently in office in Orange County is Orange County Water District Director Phil Anthony was elected to the Westminster City Council in 1962, Mayor in 1972, County Supervisor in 1976, and water board in 1981, where he’s been ever since.  In second place is Westminster Councilwoman Margie Rice, who was elected to the School Board in 1977, City Council in 1994, Mayor in 2000, and back to the City Council in 2012.

A notable mention is Coast Community College District Trustee Jerry Patterson was elected to the Santa Ana City Council in 1968, Mayor in 1972, and Congress in 1974, but he had a hiatus from elected office from 1984 (when he lost his Congressional seat to Bob Dornan) to 2000 (when he won his current college board seat).  Patterson was elected before Rice and Royce, but his long hiatus places him behind them for years in office.

Posted in 39th Congressional District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

AD-55: Chen’s Warchest Exceeds All Opponents Combined

Posted by Chris Nguyen on May 9, 2016

Chen, Tye, Marquez, Spence, Fritchle

School District Trustee Phillip Chen (R-Diamond Bar), City Councilman Steve Tye (R-Diamond Bar), City Councilman Ray Marquez (R-Chino Hills), City Councilman Mike Spence (R-West Covina), and Social Worker Gregg Fritchle (D-Walnut)

Walnut Valley Unified School District Trustee Phillip Chen (R-Diamond Bar) dominates fundraising, spending, cash-on-hand, and even loans in the 55th Assembly District race.  Chen’s contributions, cash-on-hand, and loans each exceed that of all his opponents combined while his expenditures exceed that of his next two closest opponents combined.

At the end of 2015, Chen’s cash-on-hand was $141,556, more than 4.5 times that of his opponents combined.  Councilmen Steve Tye (R-Diamond Bar) and Mike Spence (R-West Covina) had a combined total of $31,597.  Councilman Ray Marquez (R-Chino Hills) and Social Worker Gregg Fritchle (D-Walnut) did not begin raising money until 2016.

In 2016, Chen raised $169,276, with all four of his opponents raising only a combined total of $99,461.

In expenditures, Chen spent $82,352, with all four of his opponents spending a combined total of $84,388.  Chen outspent any two of his opponents combined.  (Tye’s $44,868 surpassed the combined $39,520 spent by Spence, Marquez, and Frithcle.)

For extra measure, Chen lent his campaign $100,000, with his opponents having a combined total loan amount of $12,250.

Chen’s cash-on-hand of $228,505 nearly quadrupled his opponents’ combined total of $57,318.  Even after subtracting out unpaid bills and loans, Chen’s $115,695 is nearly triple his opponents’ combined total of $39,410.

Chen has significant resources available to him to deliver his message to the voters while Spence has enough money remaining for 1-2 mailers, with the other candidates struggling to fund even one mailer.   Chen, Tye, and Fritchle were all defeated by then-Councilwoman Ling-Ling Chang (R-Diamond Bar) in 2014.  However, with Chang not seeking re-election to the Assembly (opting instead to run for the Senate), this allowed the other three to again contest the seat just two years later, joined by Spence and Marquez.

Here’s the complete run-down:

Candidate 2015
Cash-On-Hand
2016
Contributions
Candidate
Loans
Unpaid
Bills
Expenditures Cash on Hand
(COH)
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
& Loans
Chen $141,556 $169,276 $100,000 $12,810 $82,352 $228,505 $215,695 $115,695
Tye $24,041 $33,841 $1,250 $5,658 $44,868 $13,044 $7,386 $6,136
Marquez $0 $36,627 $0 $0 $26,745 $9,882 $9,882 $9,882
Spence $7,556 $26,924 $1,000 $0 $11,813 $23,667 $23,667 $22,667
Fritchle $0 $2,069 $10,000 $0 $962 $10,725 $10,725 $725
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

 

Posted in 55th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Orange County Young Republicans Make More Endorsements for June Primary Election

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 30, 2016

Orange County Young RepublicansThe Orange County Young Republicans met on Monday night with Board of Supervisors Chairwoman Lisa Bartlett as the keynote speaker. Before Bartlett spoke, the OCYR considered endorsements for Federal and State offices (the OCYR had already considered endorsements for County offices, 55th Assembly District, and Superior Court Judge Office No. 3 in February when the speaker was Supervisor Andrew Do).

The OCYR Endorsements so far are:

A third round of endorsements will occur in April that is expected to include the 45th Congressional District, the 46th Congressional District, the 47th Congressional District, the 74th Assembly District, and several judicial races.  Nothing precludes the OCYR from issuing a dual endorsement in any race, though no one has requested one yet.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, Orange County, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Orange County Young Republicans Make Early Endorsements for June Primary Election

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 2, 2016

Orange County Young RepublicansThe Orange County Young Republicans met on Monday night with Supervisor Andrew Do as the keynote speaker.

The OCYR also voted on early endorsements for the June Primary Election:

(If you need to keep your judicial races straight, here’s OC Political’s most recent post on the judicial races.)

More endorsements are expected later this month.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 55th Assembly District, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

AD-55: Chen Outraises Opponents Combined

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 4, 2016

In the 55th Assembly District race, Walnut Valley Unified School District Trustee Philip Chen raised more in three days in the race than all of his opponents raised combined for the entire race so far.

Chen reported $141,556 cash on hand, but $100,000 of that was a loan.  Diamond Bar Councilman Steve Tye reported $26,029 cash on hand across three accounts.  Chino Hills Councilman Ray Marquez reported $3,950 cash on hand.  West Covina Councilman Mike Spence did not file an electronic campaign finance report, so we know he had raised less than $25,000.  The sole Democrat in the race, Social Worker Gregg Fritchle, does not have an open account.

Chen’s $41,555 in contributions were all received in the last three days of the reporting period: December 28-December 31.  Tye’s $33,194 in contributions all came in during the last three months of the reporting period, covering October 1-December 31.  Marquez’s $3,950 in contributions came in during the last four weeks of the reporting period: December 5-December 31.

Interestingly, there were no transfers from any of these officeholders’ prior accounts.  Of course, it could be because Chen’s school board account and Tye’s City Council account have negligible balances, as do their 2014 Assembly accounts.  Marquez had closed his City Council account.

Chen and Tye have significant debt from their 2014 Assembly accounts, demonstrating that both are willing to spend their own money in the 2016 race.  In their 2014 Assembly accounts, Chen owes himself $100,399 while Tye owes himself $57,600.

For visual learners:

Candidate 6/30/15
Cash Balance
Contributions Loans Unpaid
Bills
Expenditures Cash on Hand
(COH)
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills and Loans
Chen for Assembly $0 $41,555 $100,000 $3,350 $0 $141,555 $138,205 $38,205
Chen for School Board $622 $0 $100,399 $0 $0 $622 $622 ($99,777)
Tye for Assembly 2016 $0 $33,195 $1,250 $8,420 $10,404 $24,041 $15,621 $14,371
Tye for Assembly 2014 $1,441 $0 $57,600 $5,624 $377 $1,064 ($4,560) ($62,160)
Tye for City Council $983 $0 $0 $0 $60 $923 $923 $923
Marquez for Assembly $0 $3,950 $0 $0 $0 $3,950 $3,950 $3,950
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

 

In fairness to

Posted in 55th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

OC’s Top 10 Primary Election Stories

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 4, 2014

Eric Woolery, Robert Hammond, Linda Lindholm, and Ken Williams

OC Board of Education Group Photo at the Custom Campaigns June 3 Election Night Party at BJ’s in Irvine:
Auditor-Controller-Elect/Orange City Treasurer/Former OCBE Trustee Eric Woolery, OCBE Trustee Robert Hammond, Laguna Niguel Mayor/OCBE Trustee-Elect Linda Lindholm, and OCBE Trustee Ken Williams.

Woolery achieved a historic margin of victory in his race for Auditor-Controller (story #6) while Lindholm knocked off Orange County’s longest-serving-in-a-single-office incumbent (story #5). 

As expected, it was a busy night in yesterday’s primary election.  Here’s a rundown of the top 10 stories:

  1. AD-74: Keith Curry and Matt Harper Advance, Emanuel Patrascu LastEmami called it, mostly.  Thanks to Karina Onofre spoiling the Democratic vote for Anila Ali, we have an all-Republican battle for AD-74 to replace Assemblyman Allan Mansoor.  Shockingly, Emanuel Patrascu who had the second most money in AD-74 came in fifth while Harper who spent next to nothing (and what he did spend focused on slate mailers) came in a comfortable second.  This comes down to a Newport vs. Huntington battle in the November runoff, as Newport Beach Councilman Curry fights it out with Huntington Beach Mayor Harper for the Assembly seat.  How much in Republican resources will be drained by the AD-74 race in November, as Republicans seek to capture SD-34 and AD-65 from the Democrats?
    .
  2. AD-73: Bill Brough Wins GOP Nomination, Anna Bryson Last – In this safe Republican seat, Bill Brough’s low-budget operation demonstrated that precinct walking does work for winning open seats.  With Democrat Wendy Gabriella advancing to the runoff with Brough, he is the prohibitive favorite to be the next Assemblymember from the 73rd District and the district’s first Assemblyman in 16 years after Assemblywomen Patricia Bates, Mimi Walters, and Diane Harkey.  Depending on completion of vote counts for absentees and provisionals, Anna Bryson’s IE-laden campaign may have cost well over $100 per vote.  (To put the massive IE spending for Bryson in perspective, here’s how much spending would have been needed for several other candidates in other races to match that rate: Michelle Steel would have needed $2.4 million, Linda Lindholm $3.1 million, and Eric Woolery $11.0 million.)  This race clearly demonstrated: money can’t buy everything.
    .
  3. AD-55: Ling-Ling Chang Captures Top Spot – In a brutal slugfest between Diamond Bar Councilwoman Ling-Ling Chang and Walnut Valley Unified School District Trustee Phillip Chen with Diamond Bar Councilman Steve Tye threatening to play spoiler, well-funded Chang managed to overcome very-well-funded Chen’s financial advantage to capture the top spot with 28% of the vote, pushing Chen into third place with 23% of the vote and Tye with 22% of the vote.  Democrat Gregg Fritchle came in second with 28% of the vote.  In this safe Republican district, Chang is the prohibitive favorite to be the next Assemblymember from the 55th District, replacing Curt Hagman.
    .
  4. SD-34: Janet Nguyen Captures Majority of Votes Cast; Republicans Take Almost 2/3 of Votes Cast – It was a foregone conclusion that Orange County Supervisor Janet Nguyen would be the Republican nominee against the Democrats’ nominee, former Assemblyman Jose Solorio, in the hotly-contested SD-34.  What is shocking is that despite the presence of Republican former Orange County Board of Education Trustee Long Pham on the ballot, Nguyen still managed to capture 52% of the vote to Solorio’s 34% in the two-county SD-34 race.  Pham captured 14%.  With Republicans capturing nearly 2/3 of the vote, and Nguyen herself capturing 52%, this builds significant momentum for Nguyen heading into the November race, with Republicans turning to Nguyen to break the Democrats’ supermajority in the State Senate and Democrats turning to Solorio to preserve the Democrats’ Senate supermajority.  (For the record, I am not related to Janet Nguyen. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)
    .
  5. Orange County Board of Education: Linda Lindholm Unseats 32-Year Incumbent Giant Slayer Liz Parker – For the last few years, there was a joke in education circles that the way to win an Assembly seat was to lose an Orange County Board of Education race to Liz Parker.  Chuck DeVore lost to Parker in 1990 and won an Assembly seat in 2004. Don Wagner lost to Parker in 1998 and won an Assembly seat in 2010.  However, Parker is done.  After nearly a 1/3 of a century in office, Liz Parker has been unseated by Laguna Niguel Mayor Linda Lindholm.  No elected official in Orange County has held the same office longer than Liz Parker.  (Indeed, Parker graduated from college the same month she was elected to the Orange County Board of Education.)
    .
  6. Auditor-Controller: Eric Woolery’s Unprecedented Majority – In a five-way race with no incumbent for Auditor-Controller, Orange City Treasurer Eric Woolery won nearly 57% of the vote, nearly 40% better than the second-place candidate, Deputy Auditor-Controller Frank Davies, who won 17% of the vote.  In a race with three or more candidates with no incumbent, there has not been a candidate who has won by such a large margin in at least 30 years and, quite possibly, ever.  Indeed, there was only one candidate in those incumbent-free, 3+ candidate races who even averted a runoff: David Sundstrom, who received 50.3% of the vote for Auditor-Controller in 1998. (Anaheim Mayor Tom Daly won 41% of the vote in a five-way race for Clerk-Recorder in 2002 before winning the runoff.  Assistant Public Administrator Vicki Landrus won 41% of the vote and College Trustee John Williams won 36% of the vote in a four-way race for Public Administrator in 2002; Williams won the runoff.  OC Internal Auditor David Sundstrom won 50.3% of the vote in a three-way race for Auditor-Controller in 1998.  OC Assistant Assessor Webster Guillory won 26% of the vote in a seven-way race for Assessor in 1998 before winning the runoff.)
    .
  7. Irvine Unified School District: Ira Glasky Renders Special Election Moot, Beats Agran-Backed Candidate – After IUSD Trustee Gavin Huntley-Fenner resigned due to business and family obligations, the IUSD Board appointed Ira Glasky to fill the seat in November 2013.  Utilizing an obscure section of the Education Code, a petition drive gathered the necessary 1,643 signatures (1.5% of registered voters at the 2012 school board election) to invalidate Glasky’s appointment and force a special election.  The special election cost IUSD schools hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars.  Three candidates filed to run: Glasky, Larry Agran-backed Carolyn Inmon, and Bob Vu.  Glasky won 42% of the vote to Inmon’s 37% and Vu’s 22%.  IUSD was forced to spend hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars on a special election that had the same end result as if the special election had never happened.
    .
  8. Assessor: Webster Guillory vs. Claude Parrish Runoff – In 2010, Webster Guillory won 53% of the vote to Claude Parrish’s 47%, but Parrish ran as “Businessman/Tax Consultant” in 2010.  Parrish is “Taxpayer Advocate/Businessman” this year.  Last night, Guillory won 47% to Parrish’s 43%, with Jorge Lopez getting 10%.  Parrish’s stronger ballot designation narrowed the margin between Guillory and Parrish.  In Guillory’s favor is the fact that November voters are more favorable to incumbents than June voters.  In Parrish’s favor is the fact that he has a stronger ballot designation in 2014 than he did in 2010.  Also in Parrish’s favor is the investigation around whether or not Guillory’s nomination papers were signed by his subordinates at the office on County time; if this garners more publicity it helps Parrish; if it fizzles, it’s moot.
    .
  9. Supe-5: Robert Ming vs. Lisa Bartlett RunoffThe narrative in this race always had business interests spending on IEs for Mission Viejo Councilman Frank Ury to put him into the runoff for the Fifth District Supervisor’s race.  The conventional wisdom was wrong, as Laguna Niguel Councilman Robert Ming and Dana Point Mayor Lisa Bartlett each achieved 29% of the vote (Ming ahead of Bartlett by 0.4%), with Ury in third at 24% and Deputy District Attorney Joe Williams last at 18%.
    .
  10. Supe-2: Steel Beats Mansoor 2-1 as Both Make Runoff – Conventional wisdom held that the Second District Supervisor’s race would result in a runoff between Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel and Assemblyman Allan Mansoor.  What wasn’t expected was just how close to 50% Steel would get or how large her margin over Mansoor would be.  Surpassing most expectations, Steel pulled off 47% of the vote to Mansoor’s 24%, with Coast Community College District Trustee Jim Moreno at 22% and Huntington Beach Councilman Joe Carchio at 8%.

These honorable mentions were things that happened as expected but may have interesting footnotes:

Honorable Mention #1 – CD-45: Raths Falls Short, Jockeying Begins for SD-37 and Even AD-68 – Republican Retired Marine Colonel Greg Raths fell 4% short of overtaking Democrat Educator/Businessman Drew Leavens to advance to the general election with Republican Senator Mimi Walters.  Did Walters’s hit piece (calling Raths a “Bill Clinton Republican” for his assignment to the Clinton White House while serving in the Marine Corps) move the needle 4%?  Jockeying for the special election for Walters’s SD-37 seat and even Assemblyman Don Wagner’s AD-68 seat has already begun since Walters is expected to crush Leavens in CD-45 in November.

Honorable Mention #2 – Shawn Nelson: OC’s Biggest Supervisorial Landslide Ever? With 84% of the vote, Supervisor Shawn Nelson’s reelection bid may well be the most lopsided victory ever achieved by an Orange County supervisor (excluding races where a Supervisor was unopposed or a Supervisor’s only opponent was a write-in candidate).

Honorable Mention #3 – Measure A: OC’s Biggest Landslide Ever? – With 88% of voters in casting ballots in favor of Measure A, the measure may well have achieved the highest percentage ever for a ballot measure in Orange County.

In the interest of full disclosure, clients of Custom Campaigns (the consulting firm that owns OC Political) include four IUSD Trustees (story #7: Ira Glasky, Paul Bokota, Lauren Brooks, and Michael Parham), three OCBE Trustees (story #5: Linda Lindholm, Robert Hammond, and Ken Williams), Eric Woolery (story #6), and Robert Ming (story #9).  Separate and apart from the consulting firm that owns OC Political, this blogger also did the staff work for Measure A (honorable mention #3).

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 34th Senate District, 55th Assembly District, 5th Supervisorial District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Orange County Auditor-Controller, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Handicapping The Races: 55th Assembly District (June 2014)

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 22, 2014

Here goes another handicapping post, I fear that Chris Nguyen is going to chase me with the axe from the Neel Kashkari mailer. I am going to give my take on the 55th Assembly District, which is Curt Hagman’s seat, which he cannot run for due to term limits.

Here are the candidates running for AD 55:

  • Gregg Fritchle (D) – Social Worker
  • Steve Tye (R) – Councilmember
  • Ling-Ling Chang (R) – City Councilwoman
  • Phillip Chen (R) – Small Business Owner

Voter registration heavily favors Republicans, with Republicans having 42% of registered voters in the 55th Assembly District compared to Democrats who hold just 31% of voter registration. This is an open primary that falls under the rules of Proposition 14, so regardless of percentages, the two candidates with the most votes will advance to the November election. The 55th Assembly District currently has the following cities within its boundaries:

  • LA COUNTY
    • Diamond Bar
    • Rowland Heights
    • Walnut
    • Industry (Portion)
    • West Covina (Portion)
  • ORANGE COUNTY
    • Brea
    • La Habra
    • Placentia
    • Yorba Linda
  • SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
    • Chino Hills

Gregg Fritchle

Gregg Fritchle has run for this seat before and is the lone Democrat on the ballot this election. Let’s take a look at his electoral history.

Results from 2012 (Open Primary):

MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 55th District
Completed Precincts: 275 of 275
Vote Count Percentage
CURT HAGMAN 40,268 69.1%
GREGG D. FRITCHLE 17,994 30.9%

Results from 2010 (Democratic Primary):

MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 60th District – Democratic
Completed Precincts: 299 of 299
Vote Count Percentage
GREGG D. FRITCHLE (DEM) 14,498 100.0%

Fritchle has no chance to win in November and likely will not run a very comprehensive campaign being that he is a sacrificial lamb on the ballot. However, he is still the only Democrat in the race and with a solid backing in the last election among Democrats, Fritchle does not have any other candidates pulling from his base of voters.

With Fritchle not qualifying for electronic campaign finance filings, we can assume that he does not plan to get involved in the voter contact battle that will exist among the three Republicans in the race to advance to November.

Steve Tye

Steve Tye is sort of the curious candidate in this race. I do not really understand why he is running and he does not appear to be in a good position to advance to November and I will show you why.

I will give him this, he did finish ahead of Ling-Ling Chang in the past two Diamond Bar City Council Races, but I am not convinced that he is a contender based on his campaign being the weakest of the three Republicans. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.

Results from 2013 (LA County Election):

As of Date: 11/19/2013 Time: 13:58               Votes  Percent

DIAMOND BAR CY GEN MUNI      COUNCILMEMBER
VOTE FOR NO MORE THAN   3

STEVE TYE                                                  2,895    23.68
LING LING CHANG                                        2,765    22.61
NANCY A LYONS                                         2,578    21.08
RON EVERETT                                             1,956    16.00
JOSEPH KIM                                                1,232    10.08
MARTIN NAKAISHI                                           801     6.55

TOTAL PRECINCTS         18            PRECINCTS REPORTING        18   100.00
REGISTRATION        31,989

Results from 2009 (LA County Election):

As of Date: 11/20/2009 Time: 16:27               Votes  Percent

DIAMOND BAR CITY GEN MUNI    COUNCILMEMBER
VOTE FOR NO MORE THAN   3

STEVE TYE                                                  3,472    24.04
RON EVERETT                                             2,945    20.39
LING-LING CHANG                                        2,727    18.88
ROBERT L VELAZQUEZ                                1,520    10.53
DAVID T LIU                                                  1,453    10.06
LUCY HUANG                                               1,311     9.08
S DHAND                                                      1,013     7.01

TOTAL PRECINCTS         17            PRECINCTS REPORTING        17   100.00
REGISTRATION        29,877

As you can see from the election results, Tye does extremely well in races that take place in odd years in Diamond Bar. This election, though, is the big leagues, and he is going to need a much stronger effort to win a seat in the State Assembly.

As of the last reporting period, Tye has over $123,000 cash on hand although this does include a $100,000 loan from himself. I have not heard about any mailers going out from his campaign but will admit that I was impressed to hear that he does have a pretty substantial precinct operation that his campaign is running. I question whether or not he can raise enough money to fight the powers of Ling-Ling Chang and Phillip Chen who have dominated the mailboxes up until this point.

Tye will likely pull some votes away from Ling-Ling Chang by virtue of his name ID in Diamond Bar. However, I anticipate that he will pull more votes away from Phillip Chen due to the fact that the male voters will be split between three candidates.

Ling-Ling Chang

Ling-Ling Chang is the other Councilmember from Diamond Bar that is running in this race. She is the only female candidate on the ballot and has got a lot of money in her campaign war chest as of the last reporting period.

Ling-Ling Chang snuck onto the City Council in 2009 but showed a great deal of improvement in 2013. Let’s take a brief look at her electoral history.

Results from 2013 (LA County Election):

As of Date: 11/19/2013 Time: 13:58               Votes  Percent

DIAMOND BAR CY GEN MUNI      COUNCILMEMBER
VOTE FOR NO MORE THAN   3

STEVE TYE                                                  2,895    23.68
LING LING CHANG                                        2,765    22.61
NANCY A LYONS                                         2,578    21.08
RON EVERETT                                             1,956    16.00
JOSEPH KIM                                                1,232    10.08
MARTIN NAKAISHI                                          801      6.55

TOTAL PRECINCTS         18            PRECINCTS REPORTING        18   100.00
REGISTRATION        31,989

Results from 2009 (LA County Election):

As of Date: 11/20/2009 Time: 16:27               Votes  Percent

DIAMOND BAR CITY GEN MUNI    COUNCILMEMBER
VOTE FOR NO MORE THAN   3

STEVE TYE                                                  3,472    24.04
RON EVERETT                                             2,945    20.39
LING-LING CHANG                                        2,727    18.88
ROBERT L VELAZQUEZ                                1,520    10.53
DAVID T LIU                                                  1,453    10.06
LUCY HUANG                                               1,311      9.08
S DHAND                                                      1,013     7.01

TOTAL PRECINCTS         17            PRECINCTS REPORTING        17   100.00
REGISTRATION        29,877

As you can see from the election results, Chang closed the gap between herself and Tye in the 2013 race. I expect her to finish substantially ahead of Tye in the areas outside of Diamond Bar. Impressively, Chang has over $325,000 cash on hand as of the last reporting period, although this also includes a $100,000 personal loan.

Chang not only has the most direct mail going out to voters but she also appears to have the best ground game from what I have heard from my sources in the 55th Assembly District. She is definitely putting in the work needed to come out a winner in this race.

At this point, it is her race to lose.

Phillip Chen

Phillip Chen is fighting with Ling-Ling Chang for the top slot in this election. Chen is a member of the Walnut Valley Unified School District and is also a staffer for LA County Supervisor Mike Antonovich. I am not impressed with his usage of the ballot designation Small Business Owner.

Let’s take a look at his electoral history.

Results from 2011 (LA County Election):

As of Date: 11/18/2011 Time: 14:05                Votes  Percent

WALNUT VALLEY UNIF SCH       GOVERNING BOARD MEMBER
VOTE FOR NO MORE THAN   2

PHILLIP CHEN                                     3,121    42.65
LARRY L REDINGER                            2,649    36.20
BEN YIP                                              1,548    21.15

TOTAL PRECINCTS         22            PRECINCTS REPORTING        22   100.00
REGISTRATION        31,204

Chen does not have as much name ID as Steve Tye or Ling-Ling Chang, but he does appear to have the most money with over $450,000 cash on hand, although as with the other two Republicans he has also loaned himself the magic $100,000. It appears that he has dominated slate mailers up until this point, but I have not been very impressed with the direct mail that he has put out or the TV commercial that he has put up on cable.

With his fundraising lead in place, I will give Chen credit, because I have heard that he is also running a strong ground game operation. The problems he face are that he has weaker name ID than both of his Republican opponents, and he did not use his elected title as his ballot designation (which would link him to his name ID). Chen just does not stand out from the crowd in my opinion, and I believe that it will be tough for him to overtake Ling-Ling Chang


Prediction Time

Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict that the candidates who advance to November will be

Ling-Ling Chang (R) and Gregg Fritchle (D)

Posted in 55th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

AD-55 Watch: Candidate Forum at Diamond Bar RWF

Posted by Allen Wilson on April 24, 2014

The Diamond Bar Republican Women Federated is hosting a candidate forum tonight at the Diamond Bar Golf Course.

7:08:  Diamond Bar RWF President Barbara Carrera called meeting to order

7:10:  Diamond Bar Mayor Carol Herrera led the pledge.

7:11: El Monte Councilman Jay Gomez was introduced as candidate for County Supervisor in the 1st District, which includes Walnut. Gomez stressed importance of public safety to protect all communities.

7:16: Attendees are proceeding to dinner.

BREAK

7:53: Barbara Carrera introduced Anthony Kuo, Communications for Ling-Ling Chang Campaign to make an announcement. Kuo explained that Chang is not present due to a family emergency and she had to leave. Steve Tye joked “My wife was called and she has to go.”

7:57: Phillip Chen introduced himself and appreciated those in attendance taking time out of busy schedule to listen the candidates. Chen thanked Republican Women efforts and being backbone for the party candidates. Chen spoked of his education and as a business owner and endorsements from Assemblyman Hagman, Supervisor Shawn Nelson and host of others joining the campaign.

8:01: Steve Tye introduced himself by introducing his wife, Patty Tye. Tye stressed the reason why he ran for Council in 2005 regarding the library tax and that the county library must step up to the plate to build a new library. Tye mentions experience as President of the Contract Cities.

8:05: Question about Common Core: Chen is against it with reminder to the audience that as a Board Member of Walnut-Valley School District he sees problems as the district is the lowest funded per pupil in the county. The problem is removing bad teachers. Chen stressed importance of change in the education funding formula.

8:10: Tye mentions his wife who is a Special Education teacher and he, too, is against Common Core. Tye brings up the need to audit all aspects of public education and importance to use resources properly with point that we have a spending problem not a revenue problem.

8:16: Question about the bullet train (High Speed Rail). Tye stress that it is time to get rid of it. Tye says, “We have a bullet train and it is called Southwest Airlines.” Tye attempts to make a point that HSR from Los Angeles to San Francisco would take 2 hours as it is shorter by air via airplane. Tye urges transportation funding to be used for infrastructure projects.

8:19: Chen spoke out against HSR as well with emphasis on the dollars currently being spent of $68 billion with no tracks in place. Chen brings up question of where is funding to repair the tracks highlighting example of the Alameda Corridor that flows through the San Gabriel Valley the cost or repairing tracks is at a price of $20 Million alone.

8:24: Who is your personal hero? Chen mentions Ronald Reagan. Tye mentions George W. Bush and efforts in Iraq.

8:28: How to handle the problem of birthing centers being used by women coming in from Asia? Tye stressed that the problem is illegal and spoke with Rep. Gary Miller about the ongoing problem with urgency of problems of the 14th Amendment.

8:31: Chen highlight the problems of “anchor babies” and the birthing centers are wrong as it is unsafe and unfair to neighboring residents in a community. Chen stress that if people want to come to the U.S. they must learn about USA and they must respect laws.

8:34: Former Assemblyman and Walnut Councilman Bob Pacheco spoke up with pressing question: “Are fees and taxes the same thing?”

8:35: Tye rebukes the question stressing that taxes and fees ARE NOT the same thing.

8:37: Chen agrees with Pacheco that fees ARE taxes.

8:41: Forum Closes.

Posted in 55th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , | 2 Comments »

Bob Huff Supports Ling-Ling Chang

Posted by OC Insider on April 23, 2014

This is an excellent piece written by Bob Huff on Ling-Ling Chang and why she is the best choice for voters in the 55th Assembly District.

Senator Bob Huff

California’s 29th District | Senate Republican Leader

I’m supporting Diamond Bar Councilwoman Ling-Ling Chang for the State Assembly because she has the kind of experience and values we need in the Legislature.

On the City Council, Ling balanced every budget, never raised taxes, built a $17 million reserve and helped make her city one of the safest in California.

As an elected member of a local water board, she worked to ensure reliable delivery of water without raising taxes or rates. During her time as President and CEO of the Youth Science Center, she worked with young people to emphasize science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) skills.

And, as a Councilmember, she’s working to create new jobs and cut her own pay to help the city stretch its tax dollars.

Ling-Ling Chang is the real deal. She has been solving problems in our region for almost 10 years as a Water Board member, City Councilmember and Mayor. I’m grateful that I’ve been able to rely on her advice and live in a city she helps govern.

Now, more than ever, we need honest and fresh leadership. I believe we have found, can find and will continue to find that leadership in Ling-Ling Chang. Ling has earned my support time and again, and I hope she can earn your support in the June primary, as well.

Bob Huff
Senate Republican Leader

Ling-Ling Chang for Assembly 2014

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AD-55 Watch: Crime Victims United Endorses Phillip Chen for Assembly

Posted by Allen Wilson on April 21, 2014

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We received this press release from the Phillip Chen for State Assembly campaign:

Crime Victims United of California (CVUC), the state’s leading crime victim advocacy group, has endorsed Republican Phillip Chen in the race for the 55th Assembly District.

 

“As a Reserve Deputy Sheriff, Phillip Chen is part of the public safety community. He is dedicated to protecting our neighborhoods and schools and to standing up for the rights of crime victims,” said CVUC President Harriet Salarno. “We are proud to join with Orange County District Attorney Tony Rackauckas, Orange County Sheriff Sandra Hutchens, San Bernardino County District Attorney Mike Ramos, former L.A. County District Attorney Steve Cooley and others in our law enforcement community in endorsing Phillip Chen to be the next Assemblyman from the 55th district.”

 

Phillip Chen is a local Republican leader, small business owner, elected school board member, and reserve deputy sheriff. He recently received his doctorate degree from the University of Southern California.

 

Phillip is running in the 55th Assembly district with the support of incumbent Republican Assemblyman Curt Hagman.

 

Crime Victims United of California is comprised of two distinct, yet complementary groups — a legislative advocacy arm that works to strengthen victims’ rights laws and a political action committee that lends its endorsement and financial backing to pro-victim candidates.

Posted in 55th Assembly District, Brea, California, La Habra, Placentia, State Assembly, Yorba Linda | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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