OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Posts Tagged ‘Keith Carlson’

AD-74 Watch: Karina Onofre Announces That She Is Running

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on November 26, 2013

74Yesterday, former Santa Ana City Council candidate Karina Onofre announced that she is running for the 74th Assembly District which is currently held by Allan Mansoor. Mansoor announced last week that he will not be seeking a third term, instead opting to battle Michelle Steel for the 2nd Supervisorial District, held by the termed out John Moorlach. This announcement by Onofre caught me completely off guard as I had not even heard any rumors about this.  When I told Chris Nguyen about this, his reaction was, “WHAT?!?!?!”  (On a related note, does anyone know how to replace a burst iPhone speaker?)

Running a race in AD-74 also presents totally different demographics and challenges than running a race for Santa Ana City Council. AD-74 consists of Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Irvine, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, and Newport Beach.  In Santa Ana, Republicans are at a distinct disadvantage in voter registration, thus making it less likely to draw a crowd of Republicans who will fight for a seat. Two Republicans who have been able to overpower the Democratic stranglehold on elected offices are Orange County Board of Education Trustee Robert Hammond and Santa Ana Unified School District Trustee Cecilia Iglesias. (In the interest of full disclosure, Custom Campaigns served as the sole campaign consultants to both of these candidates.  Custom Campaigns is also the firm that owns OC Political.)

In AD-74, Republicans have a 12.6% registration advantage, which will lead to a rather bloody primary fight if last election is any indicator. In the 2012 Primary Election, Leslie Daigle (and the PACs supporting her) spent gobs of cash to fight incumbent Allan Mansoor by bloodying him up with lots of negative mail and negative television ads. Mansoor not only made it to the run-off in November, but he easily came in first place, and Daigle finished a distant third place:

MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 74th District                                   
Completed Precincts: 392 of 392
                 Vote Count                 Percentage                
ALLAN R. MANSOOR 33,319 43.5%
ROBERT RUSH 25,120 32.8%
LESLIE DAIGLE 18,207 23.8%

These results would not be surprising if it weren’t for the fact that Charles Munger Jr. spent almost $500,000 on Daigle’s behalf to try to get her to the November run-off. Even Bob Rush, who was a Dem sacrificial lamb in this race, spent almost $100,000. These numbers are stunning in that this much was spent trying to beat an incumbent and not for an open seat. Generally, candidates will spend more money trying to win an open seat as opposed to trying to unseat an incumbent (since incumbency is so tough to overcome).

While we are still looking at 2012, Onofre had a rough time against Roman Reyna last election in the Santa Ana City Council Ward 5 race:

CITY OF SANTA ANA Member, City Council, Ward 5                                   
Completed Precincts: 108 of 108
                 Vote Count                 Percentage                
ROMAN A. REYNA 32,419 61.8%
KARINA ONOFRE 20,065 38.2%

I’m going to be very honest: Onofre only raised $3,250 in her race for Santa Ana City Council, and this was for an open seat! AD-74 already has a field of strong candidates with the ability to raise money. Onofre has no name identification in AD-74, has no fundraising base, and will face allegations of being a carpetbagger.

Huntington Beach Councilman Matt Harper, AD-72 staffer Emanuel Patrascu, and former CRP Treasurer Keith Carlson have already expressed an interest in this race. Harper is the early front-runner in this race since Huntington Beach is the second-most populated city in AD-74 (Irvine is the most populated, but no current candidate is based out of Irvine). Patrascu is not very well-known in AD-74 and hails from Laguna Beach (only about 6% of the population in AD-74), but he does work for Travis Allen and might get some decent help from his boss, who would want to get an ally elected to the Assembly. Carlson will likely have a ton of establishment support and will be able to raise quite a bit of money through his connections as former CRP Treasurer.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the real wildcard here is Orange County Supervisor John Moorlach. He is set to announce his candidacy for the 45th Congressional District at some point very soon. If for whatever reason, Moorlach decides that CD-45 is not the right fit (I actually think that he can win), he could easily destroy anyone in the field in AD-74 (assuming he doesn’t just clear the field outright) and walk into the Assembly.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments »

Who Will Be the Next OC Auditor-Controller?

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on February 2, 2012

As many people may have heard, Auditor-Controller David Sundstrom (Republican) is leaving Orange County to take a job up in Northern California. My attitude is good riddance, as Sundstrom is an elected Republican who endorsed numerous Democrats and did not in my opinion do enough to help the Republican cause. This however does leave the question, who will be the next person in this spot?

According to the County website, at least one of the following requirements must be met:

  • has a valid certificate issued by the California Board of Accountancy showing the person to be a certified public accountant or a public accountant; or
  • has a baccalaureate degree from an accredited four-year institution, with a major in accounting or its equivalent, and has served within the last five years in a senior fiscal management position in a county, city, or other public agency, a private firm, or a nonprofit organization, dealing with similar fiscal responsibilities, for a continuous period of not less than three years, or
  • has a certificate issued by the Institute of Internal Auditors showing the person to be a designated professional internal auditor, with a minimum of 16 college semester units, or their equivalent, in accounting, auditing, or finance, or
  • has served as county auditor, chief deputy county auditor, or chief assistant county auditor for a continuous period of not less than three years.

and one of the following requirements:

  • has served in a senior financial management position in a county, city, or other public agency dealing with similar financial responsibilities for a continuous period of at least three years, in the role of treasurer, tax collector, auditor, auditor-controller, or the chief deputy or assistant of these offices;
  • has a  B.A., M.A, or PhD in business administration, public administration, economics, finance, accounting or a related field;
  • has a valid California certification as a certified public accountant (CPA)
  • has a valid certification as a Chartered Financial Analyst; or
  • possess valid certification as a Certified Cash Manager.

Hmmmm, I wonder what Keith Carlson is up to.

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Allan Mansoor Endorsed by OC GOP

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on January 30, 2012

I would have loved to have posted an update on Saturday, but sadly “OC Political” did not exist yet. In what turned out to be a stunning turn of events last week Keith Carlson dropped out of the AD 74 race and endorsed Allan Mansoor. This was a classy move on the part of Keith and will spare a lot of Republican money from being wasted.

The remaining candidates for AD 74 who have announced include the Assemblyman Allan Mansoor, Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (supposedly union backed), Huntington Beach Councilman Joe Carchio, and another gentleman, Paul Vann??? has also pulled papers for this office.

As of right now this race clearly remains a two person battle between Mansoor and Daigle both of whom are Republicans. On Saturday in a special meeting of the Central Committee Allan Mansoor received the endorsement of the OC GOP without a single vote being registered against him. Apparently Leslie Daigle was a no-show at the meeting and did not even attempt to block the endorsement.

The OC GOP endorsement is  a very big deal in this race considering that there is a thirteen point Republican registration advantage in AD 74.

I am backing Allan Mansoor in this race as he has been a solid Republican in the State Assembly. What especially sat well with me was that he stood up against RDA’s and was a solid vote to abolish them.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »