Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 8, 2016
Republican Presidential Nominee
This is cross-posted to OC Daily.
In numbers that should scare Republicans across Orange County (and probably California, and maybe the United States), for the first time ever, more Orange County Democrats cast primary election ballots than Orange County Republicans did. Even in 2012, when Mitt Romney had sewn up the presidential nomination, more Republicans cast primary election votes than did in 2016. Even in the 2008 battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Democrats could not surpass Republicans in primary election ballots cast.
The 2012 general election was a bloodbath for Republicans:
- Democrats captured 2 Assembly seats from Republicans.
- Democrats captured 3 Senate seats from Republicans.
- Romney beat Obama by just 6.3% in Orange County.
Gerrymandered districts likely saved Republicans in 2008. The 2016 elections will be conducted under the same district lines that were first contested in 2012.
2016 threatens to be worse than 2012. Nowhere in Orange County is that more evident than in AD-65. Here is how Assemblyman Chris Norby did against challenger Mayor Sharon Quirk-Silva in the 2012 primary:
|CHRIS NORBY (REP)
|SHARON QUIRK-SILVA (DEM)
Here is how Assemblywoman Young Kim did against challenger ex-Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva last night:
|SHARON QUIRK-SILVA (DEM)
|YOUNG KIM (REP)
Norby led Quirk-Silva by 17.6% in the 2012 primary before losing to her in the general election by a 52%-48% margin. Kim is behind in the 2016 primary by an even larger margin than Norby lost in the 2012 general. Republicans will need to marshal massive financial and human resources in order to save the AD-65 seat.
Things look even bleaker in a swing seat that neighbors Orange County, where 66th District Assemblyman David Hadley is at 45.6% and trails ex-Assemblyman Al Muratsuchi:
|AL MURATSUCHI (DEM)
|DAVID HADLEY (REP)
|MIKE MADRIGAL (DEM)
The tri-county SD-29 is a good news, bad news situation for Republicans:
|LING LING CHANG (REP)
|JOSH NEWMAN (DEM)
|SUKHEE KANG (DEM)
As of the last reporting period ending May 21, Chang had $369,770 cash on hand, Newman had $21,835 cash on hand, and Kang had $173,086 cash on hand. The good news is that Chang now faces a weaker, underfunded opponent for a key Senate target seat. The bad news is Chang only got 44.8% of the vote in the primary.
Other scary numbers for Republican incumbents in Orange County last night:
- Assemblyman Travis Allen has just 50.9% of the vote.
|TRAVIS ALLEN (REP)
|LENORE ALBERT-SHERIDAN (DEM)
|NAM PHAM (DEM)
- Supervisor Andrew Do (R) is headed to a run-off with Michele Martinez (D), who he beat by 0.3% or 200 votes.
- Assemblyman Matthew Harper joins Assemblywoman Young Kim (who we discussed above) as the only two incumbents in Orange County who were not in first place.
|KARINA ONOFRE (DEM)
|MATTHEW HARPER (REP)
|KATHERINE DAIGLE (REP)
- Orange County Board of Education President Robert Hammond (R) is breathing a sigh of relief that County Board of Education races are winner-take-all in June with no runoff, for he beat Beckie Gomez (D) by 1.9% or 961 votes:
|ROBERT M. HAMMOND
|REBECCA “BECKIE” GOMEZ
There’s also the implications of California’s U.S. Senate race:
|KAMALA D. HARRIS (DEM)
|LORETTA L. SANCHEZ (DEM)
|DUF SUNDHEIM (REP)
With the top Republican vote-getter for U.S. Senate, Duf Sundheim, finishing a distant third, that means for the first time in California history, the November ballot for U.S. Senate will not include a Republican. Instead due to the top-two primary, only two Democrats will be on the U.S. Senate ballot in California.
Republicans face a tall order this fall to overcome the Democratic surge. Republicans will have to unify behind Republican candidates. The Republican Party must organize volunteers and raise significant funds. The OC GOP must strengthen its financial and human infrastructure in order to defeat Democrats. Otherwise, 2016 will be a bleak year indeed.
Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 65th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, California, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: Al Muratsuchi, Andrew Do, Barack Obama, Chris Norby, David Hadley, Donald Trump, Duf Sundheim, Hillary Clinton, Josh Newman, Kamala Harris, Karina Onofre, Katherine Daigle, Lenore Albert-Sheridan, Ling-Ling Chang, Loretta Sanchez, Matthew Harper, Michele Martinez, Mike Madrigal, Mitt Romney, Nam Pham, Paul Zive, Phat Bui, Rebecca Gomez, Robert Hammond, Robert M. Hammond, Robert Morris Hammond, Sharon Quirk-Silva, Steve Rocco, Sukhee Kang, Travis Allen, Young Kim | 7 Comments »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 19, 2016
I live-blogged the Orange County CRA Endorsing Convention in this prior post, but I’ve been asked to put a condensed list of the results of the Orange County CRA Endorsing Convention. So here they are:
- U.S. Representative, 39th District: Ed Royce
- U.S. Representative, 45th District: Greg Raths
- U.S. Representative, 46th District: Bob Peterson
- U.S. Representative, 47th District: Andy Whallon
- U.S. Representative, 48th District: Dana Rohrabacher
- U.S. Representative, 49th District: No Endorsement
- State Senator, 29th District: No Endorsement
- State Senator, 37th District: John M.W. Moorlach
- Member of the State Assembly, 55th District: (Los Angeles County will host this endorsing convention)
- Member of the State Assembly, 65th District: Young Kim
- Member of the State Assembly, 68th District: Deborah Pauly
- Member of the State Assembly, 69th District: Ofelia Velarde-Garcia
- Member of the State Assembly, 72nd District: No Endorsement
- Member of the State Assembly, 73rd District: William (Bill) Brough
- Member of the State Assembly, 74th District: Matthew Harper
- Orange County Supervisor, 1st District: No Endorsement
- Orange County Supervisor, 3rd District: Todd Spitzer
- Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 1: Robert M. Hammond
- Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 3: Ken L. Williams, Jr.
- Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 4: Zonya Marcenaro-Townsend
- Judge of the Superior Court, Office No. 3: Megan L. Wagner
- Judge of the Superior Court, Office No. 40: No Endorsement
- Judge of the Superior Court, Office No. 48: Karen Lee Schatzle
- Judge of the Superior Court, Office No. 49: No Endorsement
- Central Committee, 65th District: Jerry Jackson, Baron Night, David John Shawver, Alexandria A. “Alex” Coronado, Sou Moua, and Zonya Marcenaro-Townsend
- Central Committee, 73rd District: Mary Young, Jennifer Beall, Tony Beall, Ed Sachs, Laurie Davies, and Mike Munzing
The individual units in the 55th, 68th, 69th, 72nd, and 74th Districts have not yet decided if they will endorse for those Central Committee races.
Last month, the Statewide CRA endorsed Ted Cruz for President and Tom Del Beccaro for U.S. Senate.
Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Orange County, Orange County Board of Education, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Alexandria Coronado, Andy Whallon, Bill Brough, Bob Peterson, Dana Rohrabacher, David John Shawver, David Shawver, Deborah Pauly, Dr. Ken Williams, Ed Royce, Ed Sachs, Greg Raths, Jennifer Beall, Jerry Jackson, John Moorlach, Karen Lee Schatzle, Ken L. Williams, Ken L. Williams Jr., Ken Williams, Laurie Davies, Mary Young, Matt Harper, Matthew Harper, Megan Wagner, Mike Munzing, Ofelia Velarde-Garcia, Robert Hammond, Robert M. Hammond, Robert Morris Hammond, Sou Moua, Ted Cruz, Todd Spitzer, Tom Del Beccaro, Tony Beall, Young Kim, Zonya Marcenaro-Townsend, Zonya Townsend | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 17, 2015
In what should be a rather lengthy meeting, the Orange County Board of Education will be meeting today to consider a number of lengthy items.
First on their discussion calendar is Item J-1, which is the application of the College and Career Preparatory Academy (CCPA) for a charter school. The staff report recommends approval of the charter school. The CCPA charter school application is the second request and the first direct application to the Orange County Board of Education since the election of Trustee Linda Lindholm last year. Four months ago, the Vista Heritage Charter Middle School won 5-0 approval from the Orange County Board of Education when it appealed a 4-1 denial by the Santa Ana Unified School District Board of education (Trustee Ceci Iglesias was the sole vote at SAUSD in favor of Vista Heritage).
Lindholm’s victory over eight-term incumbent Liz Parker marked a critical shift for the County Board of Education. Parker who voted for charter school petitions once in a blue moon led a Board majority that rarely approved charter school petitions. Orange County’s hostility to charter schools was bizarre considering our neighboring counties all had many times more charter schools (even when adjusting for population) and the pro-charter school stance of the majority of Orange County residents.
Trustee Ken Williams, elected in 1996, has a voting record generally supportive of charter schools. Trustee Robert Hammond, elected in 2012, has a voting record consistently supportive of charter schools. Between 2012-2014, Williams and Hammond often found themselves on the losing ends of 3-2 votes on charter school applications. Lindholm’s victory in unseating Liz Parker shifted the Board to a pro-charter school majority. To their credits, Trustees Jack Bedell and David Boyd, along with the Orange County Department of Education staff, recognized the sea change delivered by the voters. Staff reports for both Vista Heritage and CCPA have recommended approval of the charter schools. Bedell and Boyd joined a unanimous vote in favor of Vista Heritage’s application and are expected to join a unanimous vote for CCPA.
As the Orange County Register noted:
While California is a nationwide leader in both the number and growth of charter schools and students attending them, Orange County is lagging. The state, according to a recent National Alliance for Public Charter Schools study, welcomed in nearly 90 new charter schools this academic year, giving a total of 1,184 – an amount nearly double that of the next-closest state in line, Florida, home to only 653.
Statewide, the study puts estimated enrollment at almost 550,000 students.
Orange County has only 16 charters – two of them limited to what is called “nonclassroom based” study, where less than 80 percent of instruction is onsite. Los Angeles County, meanwhile, has 355 charter schools. The Inland Empire has 63.
We are, in other words, remarkably deficient in providing educational choice.
Item J-3 is a “Statement Regarding the Common Core Math Standards” drafted by Trustees Lindholm and Bedell.
At 12:30 PM, Item G-4 will be a public hearing regarding the Fiscal Year 2015-16 budget. (Oddly, the actual text of the budget was not part of the agenda packet online.)
Posted in Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: CCPA, Charter Schools, College and Career Preparatory Academy, Common Core, David Boyd, Jack Bedell, Ken Williams, Linda Lindholm, Robert Hammond, Robert Morris Hammond, Vista Heritage, Vista Heritage Charter Middle School | 1 Comment »
Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 5, 2012
With 121 out of 249 precincts reporting, Robert Hammond leads Ken Nguyen by 0.9% after trailing in absentees.
Posted in Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: Ken Nguyen, Robert Morris Hammond | 4 Comments »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 24, 2012
AD 69 is a tough place to find Republicans, so it is always nice to see a contested race for the Central Committee here. This race did manage to garner less than 20 candidates though thus making it one of the tame ones.
Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.
The candidates include:
Charles Hart– Former candidate for Santa Ana Mayor and current appointed member of the Central Committee. *Incumbent.
Thomas Anthony Gordon– Clearly we here at OC Political have to cheer for our fellow blogger Thomas Gordon who is running for re-election. *Incumbent.
Brett Elliott Franklin– He is a former member of the Santa Ana City Council and current elected member of the OC GOP Central Committee.
Timothy “Tim” Ryan Whitacre– Tim is a current elected member of the Central Committee and also the member who chose to challenge Scott Baugh for the Chairmanship this past year. *Incumbent.
Robert Morris Hammond– He is currently the only hope for Republicans for the Orange County Board of Education and is a nice guy from my interactions with him. *Incumbent. (Full Disclosure: He is a Custom Campaigns client.)
Cuong Sinh Cao– He is a very quiet individual who has been a solid vote on the Central Committee during his tenure. *Incumbent.
Gwen A. Dyrud– Gwen Dyrud was appointed to this seat at some point in the past year and can run as an incumbent on the ballot. *Incumbent.
Bryan Carter– A software engineer that was hard to find any information about.
Lupe Moreno– She is an Office Specialist who is best known for her work with the Minuteman Project and Jim Gilchrist.
Glen Stroud– I have met him once before and he is actually a nice guy. He is listed on the ballot as a Retired Recreation Supervisor.
The factors at play- In these races the most important factor is luck. What I examined when determining who would win was name ID, ballot designation, ballot placement, district statistics.
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 6 winning candidates (In no particular order) will be:
1. Robert Morris Hammond
2. Brett Elliot Franklin
3. Thomas Anthony Gordon
4. Charles Hart
5. Cuong Sinh Cao
6. Timothy “Tim” Ryan Whitacre
Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Brett Elliot Franklin, Bryan Carter, Charles Hart, Cuong Sinh Cao, Glen Stroud, Gwen A. Dyrud, Lupe Moreno, Robert Morris Hammond, Thomas Anthony Gordon, Timothy "Tim" Ryan Whitacre | Leave a Comment »
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on March 12, 2012
The OC GOP Central Committee races have been finalized.
Here are the candidates that qualified for the ballot (top 6 win in each district):
55th Assembly District
Brett Barbre Appointed Incumbent
Jim Domen Pastor
Karla Downing Small Business Owner
Desare Ferraro Small Business Consultant
Peggy Huang Deputy Attorney General
Connie Lanzisera Small Business Owner
Brenda McCune Businesswoman/Childrens Advocate
Tim Shaw Mayor, City of La Habra
Dennis R. White Mechanical Engineer
65th Assembly District
Samuel “Sam” Han Appointed Incumbent
Steve Hwangbo Councilman/Businessman/Father
Jerry Jackson Retired Aerospace Engineer
Sou Moua Businessman
Shawn Nelson Orange County Supervisor
Baron Night Incumbent
Greg Sebourn Businessman/Educator
David John Shawver Mayor Pro Tem
Pat Shuff Incumbent
Henry Charoen Mayor/Businessman
Alexandria Coronado Small Business Owner
68th Assembly District
Denis Bilodeau Mayor Pro Tem
James Brownfield Business Owner
Mark William Bucher Incumbent
Steven S. Choi Irvine City Councilman
Jon Dumitru City Councilman
Marcia Gilchrist Incumbent
Ray Grangoff Incumbent
Jeffrey Lalloway Irvine Councilmember/Businessman
Joshua Robert Morales Retail Sales Associate
Walter H. Myers, III Software Consultant
Noel Stone Parrish Businesswoman
Deborah Pauly Councilwoman, City of Villa Park
Lynn Schott Entrepreneur/Educator
Todd Spitzer Businessman/Victims Advocate
Scott “Scotty” Voigts Lake Forest City Councilman
Fred M. Whitaker City of Orange Councilman/Businessman
Ken L. Williams Jr. Member, Orange County Board of Education
Nick Wilson Small Business Owner
69th Assembly District
Cuong Sinh Cao Incumbent
Bryan Carter Software Engineer
Gwen A. Dyrud Appointed Incumbent
Brett Elliott Franklin Incumbent
Thomas Anthony Gordon Incumbent
Robert Morris Hammond Business Owner/Teacher
Charles Hart Appointed Incumbent
Lupe Moreno Office Specialist
Glen Stroud Retired Recreation Supervisor
Timothy “Tim” Ryan Whitacre Incumbent
72nd Assembly District
John W. Briscoe Certified Public Accountant
Dennis R. Catron Small Businessman
Michael E. Gates Businessman/Attorney
Dean Grose Small Business Owner
Matthew Harper Huntington Beach City Councilman
Brian Hoops Special Needs Educator
Diane A. Lenning Small Business Owner
Kermit Marsh Incumbent
Mark McCurdy Fountain Valley City Councilmember
Steve A. Nagel Incumbent
Janet Nguyen Orange County Supervisor
Patricia Ross Homemaker
Mary Tuong Van Pham Businesswoman
73rd Assembly District
Alice Anderson Incumbent
Nesa Anderson Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman
Linda Barnes Community Volunteer
Tony Beall Incumbent
Evan P. Chafee Marketing Sales/Representative
Chandra Chell Computer Systems Analyst
Nina R. Davar Export Assistant Manager
Norm Dickinson Retired Naval Officer
Mark Dobrilovic Financial Advisor
John C. Drew Author/Speaker/Consultant
Dave Duringer Gun Trust Attorney
Jon Steven Fleischman Small Business Owner
Roy Fussell Realtor
Paul Hebbard Certified Public Accountant
Michael Kogus Business Owner
Steve Magdziak Small Business Owner
Mike Munzing Incumbent
Nancy Padberg Governing Board Member, South Orange Co. Community College District
Kevin Richardson Plumbing Contractor
Eric Stolaski Small Business Owner
Greg Woodard Appointed Incumbent
Mary Young Incumbent
74th Assembly District
Jon Aiken Office Clerk
Allan Bartlett Incumbent
Scott Baugh Incumbent
John Draper Businessman
Bill Dunlap General Contractor
Thomas A. “T.J.” Fuentes Businessman
Don Hansen Mayor, City of Huntington Beach
Daniel Marshall Attorney
Jeff Mathews Business Owner
Vanessa A. Matthews Small Business Owner
Gary Morse Retired Business Owner
Richard “Dick” Palmer Community Volunteer
Scott “Scotty” Peotter Businessman/Legislative Analyst
Rhonda Rohrabacher Small Business Owner
Emily Sanford Retired Navy Captain
Christina L. Shea Businesswoman
John Warner Incumbent
This is simply a list of the candidates that qualified for the ballot along with their ballot designations. After the alphabetical lottery we will make some predictions on who we think will actually win these races.
Posted in Republican Central Committee | Tagged: Alan Bartlett, Alexandria Coronado, Alice Anderson, Baron Night, Bill Dunlap, Brenda McCune, Brett Barbre, Brett Elliott Frankln, Brian Hoops, Bryan Carter, Chandra Chell, Charles Hart, Christina L. Shea, Connie Lanzisera, Cuong Sinh Cao, Daniel Marshall, Dave Duringer, David John Shawver, Dean Grose, Deborah Pauly, Denis Bilodeau, Dennis R. Catron, Dennis R. White, Desare Ferraro, Diane A. Lenning, Don Hansen, Emily Sanford, Eric Stolaski, Evan P. Chafee, Fred M. Whitaker, Gary Morse, Glen Stroud, Greg Sebourn, Greg Woodard, Gwen A. Dyrud, Henry Charoen, James Brownfield, Janet Nguyen, Jeff Mathews, Jeffrey Lalloway, Jerry Jackson, Jim Domen, John C. Drew, John Draper, John W. Briscoe, John Warner, Jon Aiken, Jon Dumitru, Jon Steven Fleischman, Joshua Robert Morales, Karla Doowning, Ken L. Williams Jr., Kermit Marsh, Kevin Richardson, Linda Barnes, Lupe Moreno, Lynn Schott, Marcia Gilchrist, Mark Dobrilovic, Mark McCurdy, Mark William Bucher, Mary Tuong Van Pham, Mary Young, Matthew Harper, Michael E. Gates, Michael Kogus, Mike Munzing, Nancy Padberg, Nesa Andersoon, Nick Wilson, Nina R. Davar, Noel Stone Parrish, Norm Dickinson, Pat Shuff, Patricia Ross, Patrick Dooley, Paul Hebbard, Peggy Huang, Ray Grangoff, Rhnda Rohrabacher, Richard "Dick" Palmer, Robert Lauten, Robert Morris Hammond, Roy Fussell, Samuel "Sam" Han, Scott "Scotty" Peotter, Scott "Scotty" Voigts, Scott Baugh, Shawn Nelson, Sou Moua, Steve A. Nagel, Steve Hwangbo, Steve Magdziak, Steven S. Choi, Thomas A. "T.J." Fuentes, Thomas Anthony Gordon, Tim Shaw, Timothy "Tim" Ryan Whitacre, Todd Spitzar, Tony Beall, Vanessa A. Matthews, Walter H. Myers III | Leave a Comment »