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OC’s Top 10 Primary Election Stories

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 4, 2014

Eric Woolery, Robert Hammond, Linda Lindholm, and Ken Williams

OC Board of Education Group Photo at the Custom Campaigns June 3 Election Night Party at BJ’s in Irvine:
Auditor-Controller-Elect/Orange City Treasurer/Former OCBE Trustee Eric Woolery, OCBE Trustee Robert Hammond, Laguna Niguel Mayor/OCBE Trustee-Elect Linda Lindholm, and OCBE Trustee Ken Williams.

Woolery achieved a historic margin of victory in his race for Auditor-Controller (story #6) while Lindholm knocked off Orange County’s longest-serving-in-a-single-office incumbent (story #5). 

As expected, it was a busy night in yesterday’s primary election.  Here’s a rundown of the top 10 stories:

  1. AD-74: Keith Curry and Matt Harper Advance, Emanuel Patrascu Last – Emami called it, mostly.  Thanks to Karina Onofre spoiling the Democratic vote for Anila Ali, we have an all-Republican battle for AD-74 to replace Assemblyman Allan Mansoor.  Shockingly, Emanuel Patrascu who had the second most money in AD-74 came in fifth while Harper who spent next to nothing (and what he did spend focused on slate mailers) came in a comfortable second.  This comes down to a Newport vs. Huntington battle in the November runoff, as Newport Beach Councilman Curry fights it out with Huntington Beach Mayor Harper for the Assembly seat.  How much in Republican resources will be drained by the AD-74 race in November, as Republicans seek to capture SD-34 and AD-65 from the Democrats?
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  2. AD-73: Bill Brough Wins GOP Nomination, Anna Bryson Last – In this safe Republican seat, Bill Brough’s low-budget operation demonstrated that precinct walking does work for winning open seats.  With Democrat Wendy Gabriella advancing to the runoff with Brough, he is the prohibitive favorite to be the next Assemblymember from the 73rd District and the district’s first Assemblyman in 16 years after Assemblywomen Patricia Bates, Mimi Walters, and Diane Harkey.  Depending on completion of vote counts for absentees and provisionals, Anna Bryson’s IE-laden campaign may have cost well over $100 per vote.  (To put the massive IE spending for Bryson in perspective, here’s how much spending would have been needed for several other candidates in other races to match that rate: Michelle Steel would have needed $2.4 million, Linda Lindholm $3.1 million, and Eric Woolery $11.0 million.)  This race clearly demonstrated: money can’t buy everything.
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  3. AD-55: Ling-Ling Chang Captures Top Spot – In a brutal slugfest between Diamond Bar Councilwoman Ling-Ling Chang and Walnut Valley Unified School District Trustee Phillip Chen with Diamond Bar Councilman Steve Tye threatening to play spoiler, well-funded Chang managed to overcome very-well-funded Chen’s financial advantage to capture the top spot with 28% of the vote, pushing Chen into third place with 23% of the vote and Tye with 22% of the vote.  Democrat Gregg Fritchle came in second with 28% of the vote.  In this safe Republican district, Chang is the prohibitive favorite to be the next Assemblymember from the 55th District, replacing Curt Hagman.
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  4. SD-34: Janet Nguyen Captures Majority of Votes Cast; Republicans Take Almost 2/3 of Votes Cast – It was a foregone conclusion that Orange County Supervisor Janet Nguyen would be the Republican nominee against the Democrats’ nominee, former Assemblyman Jose Solorio, in the hotly-contested SD-34.  What is shocking is that despite the presence of Republican former Orange County Board of Education Trustee Long Pham on the ballot, Nguyen still managed to capture 52% of the vote to Solorio’s 34% in the two-county SD-34 race.  Pham captured 14%.  With Republicans capturing nearly 2/3 of the vote, and Nguyen herself capturing 52%, this builds significant momentum for Nguyen heading into the November race, with Republicans turning to Nguyen to break the Democrats’ supermajority in the State Senate and Democrats turning to Solorio to preserve the Democrats’ Senate supermajority.  (For the record, I am not related to Janet Nguyen. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)
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  5. Orange County Board of Education: Linda Lindholm Unseats 32-Year Incumbent Giant Slayer Liz Parker – For the last few years, there was a joke in education circles that the way to win an Assembly seat was to lose an Orange County Board of Education race to Liz Parker.  Chuck DeVore lost to Parker in 1990 and won an Assembly seat in 2004. Don Wagner lost to Parker in 1998 and won an Assembly seat in 2010.  However, Parker is done.  After nearly a 1/3 of a century in office, Liz Parker has been unseated by Laguna Niguel Mayor Linda Lindholm.  No elected official in Orange County has held the same office longer than Liz Parker.  (Indeed, Parker graduated from college the same month she was elected to the Orange County Board of Education.)
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  6. Auditor-Controller: Eric Woolery’s Unprecedented Majority – In a five-way race with no incumbent for Auditor-Controller, Orange City Treasurer Eric Woolery won nearly 57% of the vote, nearly 40% better than the second-place candidate, Deputy Auditor-Controller Frank Davies, who won 17% of the vote.  In a race with three or more candidates with no incumbent, there has not been a candidate who has won by such a large margin in at least 30 years and, quite possibly, ever.  Indeed, there was only one candidate in those incumbent-free, 3+ candidate races who even averted a runoff: David Sundstrom, who received 50.3% of the vote for Auditor-Controller in 1998. (Anaheim Mayor Tom Daly won 41% of the vote in a five-way race for Clerk-Recorder in 2002 before winning the runoff.  Assistant Public Administrator Vicki Landrus won 41% of the vote and College Trustee John Williams won 36% of the vote in a four-way race for Public Administrator in 2002; Williams won the runoff.  OC Internal Auditor David Sundstrom won 50.3% of the vote in a three-way race for Auditor-Controller in 1998.  OC Assistant Assessor Webster Guillory won 26% of the vote in a seven-way race for Assessor in 1998 before winning the runoff.)
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  7. Irvine Unified School District: Ira Glasky Renders Special Election Moot, Beats Agran-Backed Candidate – After IUSD Trustee Gavin Huntley-Fenner resigned due to business and family obligations, the IUSD Board appointed Ira Glasky to fill the seat in November 2013.  Utilizing an obscure section of the Education Code, a petition drive gathered the necessary 1,643 signatures (1.5% of registered voters at the 2012 school board election) to invalidate Glasky’s appointment and force a special election.  The special election cost IUSD schools hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars.  Three candidates filed to run: Glasky, Larry Agran-backed Carolyn Inmon, and Bob Vu.  Glasky won 42% of the vote to Inmon’s 37% and Vu’s 22%.  IUSD was forced to spend hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars on a special election that had the same end result as if the special election had never happened.
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  8. Assessor: Webster Guillory vs. Claude Parrish Runoff – In 2010, Webster Guillory won 53% of the vote to Claude Parrish’s 47%, but Parrish ran as “Businessman/Tax Consultant” in 2010.  Parrish is “Taxpayer Advocate/Businessman” this year.  Last night, Guillory won 47% to Parrish’s 43%, with Jorge Lopez getting 10%.  Parrish’s stronger ballot designation narrowed the margin between Guillory and Parrish.  In Guillory’s favor is the fact that November voters are more favorable to incumbents than June voters.  In Parrish’s favor is the fact that he has a stronger ballot designation in 2014 than he did in 2010.  Also in Parrish’s favor is the investigation around whether or not Guillory’s nomination papers were signed by his subordinates at the office on County time; if this garners more publicity it helps Parrish; if it fizzles, it’s moot.
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  9. Supe-5: Robert Ming vs. Lisa Bartlett Runoff – The narrative in this race always had business interests spending on IEs for Mission Viejo Councilman Frank Ury to put him into the runoff for the Fifth District Supervisor’s race.  The conventional wisdom was wrong, as Laguna Niguel Councilman Robert Ming and Dana Point Mayor Lisa Bartlett each achieved 29% of the vote (Ming ahead of Bartlett by 0.4%), with Ury in third at 24% and Deputy District Attorney Joe Williams last at 18%.
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  10. Supe-2: Steel Beats Mansoor 2-1 as Both Make Runoff – Conventional wisdom held that the Second District Supervisor’s race would result in a runoff between Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel and Assemblyman Allan Mansoor.  What wasn’t expected was just how close to 50% Steel would get or how large her margin over Mansoor would be.  Surpassing most expectations, Steel pulled off 47% of the vote to Mansoor’s 24%, with Coast Community College District Trustee Jim Moreno at 22% and Huntington Beach Councilman Joe Carchio at 8%.

These honorable mentions were things that happened as expected but may have interesting footnotes:

Honorable Mention #1 – CD-45: Raths Falls Short, Jockeying Begins for SD-37 and Even AD-68 – Republican Retired Marine Colonel Greg Raths fell 4% short of overtaking Democrat Educator/Businessman Drew Leavens to advance to the general election with Republican Senator Mimi Walters.  Did Walters’s hit piece (calling Raths a “Bill Clinton Republican” for his assignment to the Clinton White House while serving in the Marine Corps) move the needle 4%?  Jockeying for the special election for Walters’s SD-37 seat and even Assemblyman Don Wagner’s AD-68 seat has already begun since Walters is expected to crush Leavens in CD-45 in November.

Honorable Mention #2 – Shawn Nelson: OC’s Biggest Supervisorial Landslide Ever? With 84% of the vote, Supervisor Shawn Nelson’s reelection bid may well be the most lopsided victory ever achieved by an Orange County supervisor (excluding races where a Supervisor was unopposed or a Supervisor’s only opponent was a write-in candidate).

Honorable Mention #3 – Measure A: OC’s Biggest Landslide Ever? – With 88% of voters in casting ballots in favor of Measure A, the measure may well have achieved the highest percentage ever for a ballot measure in Orange County.

In the interest of full disclosure, clients of Custom Campaigns (the consulting firm that owns OC Political) include four IUSD Trustees (story #7: Ira Glasky, Paul Bokota, Lauren Brooks, and Michael Parham), three OCBE Trustees (story #5: Linda Lindholm, Robert Hammond, and Ken Williams), Eric Woolery (story #6), and Robert Ming (story #9).  Separate and apart from the consulting firm that owns OC Political, this blogger also did the staff work for Measure A (honorable mention #3).

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 34th Senate District, 55th Assembly District, 5th Supervisorial District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Orange County Auditor-Controller, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

AD-73: Paul Glaab Drops Out Just Four Days Before Election

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on May 30, 2014

This came over the wire from the Paul Glaab for Assembly campaign this afternoon.  With just four days left in the campaign, few voters will even know he dropped out:

Local Community Leader and Former Laguna Niguel
Mayor Paul Glaab Withdraws from 73rd Assembly Race

Endorses Anna Bryson and Encourages Supporters to Vote for Her on June 3rd

(Laguna Niguel, CA) Candidate for Assembly District 73 and former Laguna Niguel Mayor Paul Glaab releases the following statement regarding withdrawing from the 73rd Assembly District race:

After much consideration and discussion with my family, and due to recent health issues, I have decided to suspend my campaign for the 73rd Assembly District.  I recently had a serious fall that caused a head injury, and will require an extended recovery that has been making it difficult to run a campaign.  At this time I cannot continue to put the effort in to the race that will make my campaign successful.  Therefore, I have decided to suspend my campaign.

I’ve spent over 30 years working for the people of Laguna Niguel and Orange County.  But at this time, I have decided it is best to dedicate more time to my recovery – and when my health returns, to my family and to helping our local communities.

After deciding to withdraw, it was clear who to support—Anna Bryson. Anna has done so much for this community as an education reformer and leader. She will make a great Assemblymember. I would like to thank so many people who have worked and supported me during this campaign. I strongly encourage them to support Anna Bryson and keep this seat in GOP hands in November.

Paul was elected to the Laguna Niguel City Council in 2004, serving as the city’s Mayor in 2008 and in 2012.  In December of 2006, Paul joined the Orange County Transportation Authority Board of Directors where he represented South Orange County’s Fifth District and was a member of the Regional Planning and Highways Committee.   He served as Chairman of the Board in 2012.

Currently, Paul and his wife, Janice, own their own small business, Glaab and Associates, a public affairs firm in Orange County which Paul founded in 1999.  He and Janice reside in Laguna Niguel where they are raising their daughter, Molly, who attends St. Anne School in Laguna Niguel.

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Posted in 73rd Assembly District | Tagged: , | 2 Comments »

Petrilla and Bartlett Mailers Stir Controversy

Posted by Greg Woodard on May 16, 2014

Allan Bartlett over at Powder Blue posted two mailers he recently got a hold of (see below), one from Jesse Petrilla running for the 73rd Assembly District, and one from Lisa Bartlett running for OC Supervisor in the 5th District.  Bartlett maintains that the Petrilla mailer is deceptive because it contains a quote from OC GOP Chairman Scott Baugh and the OC GOP logo, implying that the party has endorsed Petrilla, which it has not.  The quote, which addresses the influence of public employee unions, is prominently displayed at the top of the mailer in which Petrilla purports to advocate for reforming government pensions.  In a comment on the Powder Blue posting, Mission Viejo activist Larry Gilbert, a Petrilla supporter, disagrees and states that the quote simply connects Chairman Baugh to the OC GOP. The OC GOP only allows endorsed candidates to use the party’s logo.  Petrilla is not endorsed by the OC GOP, and he did not ask for permission to use the party logo.

Also interesting is that Petrilla’s mailer includes a comparison between Petrilla and two other candidates, Anna Bryson and Paul Glaab.  Petrilla attacks Bryson and Glaab as beholden to the unions.  However, Petrilla omits a third major candidate, Bill Brough, from the mailer (for full disclosure, I am supporting Brough in the 73rd).  That raises the question of why Brough was omitted.  Is it because Petrilla cannot attack Brough on union issues, is it because Petrilla sees Brough as his biggest threat and he does not want to give Brough any extra publicity, or is it for another reason?  Inquiring minds want to know.

Over in the race for OC Supervisor, 5th District, Lisa Bartlett has put out a mailer stating that she is the “The Endorsed Conservative Republican” with a letter from Congressman Darrell Issa prominently displayed on the front (more disclosure, I am supporting Robert Ming in this race, though I have little experience or knowledge of Bartlett).  The letter from Issa states that he is endorsing Bartlett’s campaign.  Allan Bartlett contends that the mailer is deceptive because it implies that Bartlett is endorsed by the OC GOP, which she is not.  I have to agree that this mailer is more deceptive than Petrilla’s in that it could lead some to believe that Bartlett is endorsed by the OC GOP simply by its vague wording.  (I will note that the other Republican candidates for the 5th District are also endorsed by many, meaning that they are also “endorsed conservative” Republicans, making her statement false on its face.  She should have put “An Endorsed Conservative Republican” or “The Issa Endorsed Conservative Republican” to be accurate.  I know I am splitting hairs here, and we are talking about mailers which often like to be vague and deceptive for effect, but it still fun to do.)

Both the 73rd AD and 5th District Supervisor races appear to be close.  It remains to be seen whether these mailers and their statements will have any negative impact on either Petrilla or Bartlett, or they are relegated to inside baseball status like so many other of these issues.  We are less than three weeks from the June 3 direct primary election, and it seems that the candidates are ramping up their mail and their message.  It should be a fun election season!

jessepetrilla bartlett

Posted in 5th Supervisorial District, 73rd Assembly District, Orange County Board of Supervisors, State Assembly | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

AD-73: Petrilla Has Double Cash-on-Hand of All Opponents Combined, Bryson & Brough Nearly Tied, Glaab Deep in Debt

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 27, 2014

I’m pretty much going to quote my opening paragraph from my January post on the AD-73 race because it serves to remind us of this chaotic year:

Next up in OC Political’s ongoing in-depth analysis of campaign finance figures is the race for the 73rd Assembly District seat being vacated by the termed out Diane Harkey, who is running for the Board of Equalization seat being vacated by the termed out Michelle Steel, who is running for the Second District Supervisor’s seat being vacated by the termed out John Moorlach, who is running for the 45th Congressional District seat being vacated by John Campbell, who voluntarily retired.  (That incredibly long sentence demonstrates a recurring theme in 2014…)

Republican AD-73 Candidates: Jesse Petrilla, Anna Bryson, Bill Brough, Paul Glaab

The four Republican AD-73 Candidates: Jesse Petrilla, Anna Bryson, Bill Brough, Paul Glaab

I’ll also quote the second paragraph from my January post:

There are four announced Republican candidates in AD-73: Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Jesse Petrilla, Dana Point Councilman Bill Brough, Capistrano Unified School District Trustee Anna Bryson, and former Laguna Niguel Councilman Paul Glaab.  One Democrat, Attorney and Irvine Valley College Professor Wendy Gabriella, has announced for the race.  Gabriella’s entry in the race virtually guarantees a Republican vs. Democrat general election, with the Republican winning handily and spareing South County Republicans an AD-73 general election intraparty bloodbath.

What can I say?  Conditions in AD-73 have been fairly stable.  The announced candidates are exactly the same candidates who qualified for the ballot.  Now on to the latest numbers, which really haven’t moved all that much…

Petrilla’s fundraising slowed in this reporting period ($15,824, second behind Bryson), but his dominant lead ($104,839) from 2013 maintained his position as the AD-73 candidate with the most money raised, with $120,663.  He was the only candidate who raised more than he spent in this reporting period with his $15,228 in expenditures. This brings his total overall spending to just $23,410, and his tight-fisted spending has him actually fourth in expenditures.  Consequently, he has nearly $100,000 cash-on-hand, once loans and unpaid bills are accounted for, with $97,577, to be exact.  Republican Bryson, Republican Brough, and Democrat Gabriella have a combined $49,561 in that category (about half Petrilla’s figure), though adding the deeply-in-debt Republican Glaab leaves Petrilla’s opponents at a combined $14,550, which would mean Republican Petrilla has almost seven times the combined cash-on-hand of his opponents.  It’s not unreasonable to leave Glaab out and note that Petrilla has twice the combined cash-on-hand of his non-indebted opponents.  The biggest question is: why is Petrilla hoarding his money?  I think the most logical conclusion is that Petrilla plans to dominate the AD-73 direct mail.

Bryson raised more than her opponents this reporting period with $29,822, but she spent more than she took in, spending $32,514.  She also has $14,279 in unpaid bills.  Plus, she still lags behind Petrilla in overall funds raised.  She spent half her money on her consultants.  It’s not that her consultants are charging exorbitant rates – it’s simply that she has numerous consultants.  She’s raised $114,965 overall but already spent $75,224; after accounting for that $14,279 in unpaid bills, Bryson is left with just $25,463 cash on hand, assuming she has no plans to spend her $69,600 loan.  Her consulting fees are quickly eating up her once-sizeable warchest.

Bob Dole with AD-73 Candidate Bill Brough

Bob Dole with AD-73 Candidate Bill Brough earlier this month

Brough raised $10,297 this reporting period, bringing his total funds raised to $61,240.  He spent $18,084 this reporting period, bringing his total spending to $39,744.  He has a healthy mix of spending, with no one area jumping out to dominate his spending. He remains the candidate with the smallest loans, by far, at just $100.  He, Petrilla, and Gabriella have no unpaid bills.  Among AD-73 candidates, Brough definitely has the most interesting campaign contributor, former U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole, who was the Republican nominee for President in 1996.  The Brough campaign had announced the Dole endorsement two weeks ago, and Dole gave Brough’s campaign $500.

Glaab raised $8,899 this reporting period, bringing his total funds raised from other people to $36,985.  However, he also donated $22,000 to his campaign in 2013 (not loaned, but truly donated), bringing his total funds raised up to $58,985.  He spent $40,053 this reporting period, bringing his total expenditures to $90,072, the highest level of expenditures of any candidate in AD-73.  While Glaab has a mix of spending, he has spent a fortune on slate mailers.  With the least raised and most spent among the Republican candidates (even after accounting for his self-contribution of $22,000), Glaab is deeply in debt, to the tune of $35,011.  He’s clearly banking on the slate mailer strategy for this race, but he didn’t secure all the slates.

On slates, in my January post, I said, “Glaab secured the vast majority of slate mailers.  There are five major slate vendors, with Glaab grabbing three of them, including the two vendors who produce the most slate mailers.  Bryson grabbed one vendor.  It appears the fifth vendor is up for grabs still.”  Well, Brough has since nabbed the fifth vendor.  Slate mailers are now divided in this race, with three candidates nabbing the major slates, though Glaab has the lion’s share.

Nothing new regarding loans or candidate self-funding, so here’s the paragraph from my January post on that:

Here at OC Political, we’ve railed repeatedly against the $100,000 paper tiger loans.  (These loans of $100,000 or less are frequently used by candidates to artificially inflate their warchest numbers.  While OC Political has many posts about those, this one is probably the seminal post on the issue.)  I will give Paul Glaab credit for actually spending his own money. Glaab put his money where his mouth is, and donated $22,000 to his own campaign beyond the $100,000 loan he made to his campaign.  State campaign finance regulations put that $22,000 forever out of Glaab’s reach; it is nonrefundable, and he must spend it on the campaign.  Glaab was well aware of this regulation and properly reported the $22,000 as a contribution, not a loan.

Democrat Wendy Gabriella raised $4,592 this reporting period, bringing her total funds raised to $16,703.  She spent $9,507 this reporting period, bringing her total expenditures to $14,089.  (Interestingly, top fundraiser Petrilla’s spending is so low that his expenditure levels are closer to dead-last fundraiser Gabriella’s than to any of his Republican opponents.)  With no unpaid bills and a candidate loan of $1,196, Gabriella’s cash-on-hand is $2,614.

Here’s the chart:

Candidate 2013
Contrib.		 1/1/14-
3/17/14
Contrib.		 Candidate
Contrib.		 Total
Contrib.		 Candidate
Loans		 Unpaid
Bills		 2013
Expend.		 1/1/14-
3/17/14
Expend.		 Total
Expend.		 Cash-
on-Hand
(COH)		 COH
Minus
Unpaid
Bills		 COH
Minus
Unpaid
Bills &
Loans
Petrilla $104,839 $15,824 $0 $120,663 $3,500 $0 $8,182 $15,228 $23,410 $101,077 $101,077 $97,577
Bryson $85,143 $29,822 $0 $114,965 $69,600 $14,279 $42,710 $32,514 $75,224 $109,342 $95,063 $25,463
Brough $50,943 $10,297 $0 $61,240 $100 $0 $21,660 $18,084 $39,744 $21,584 $21,584 $21,484
Glaab $28,086 $8,899 $22,000 $58,985 $100,000 $3,925 $50,019 $40,053 $90,072 $68,914 $64,989 -($35,011)
Gabriella $12,111 $4,592 $0 $16,703 $1,196 $0 $4,582 $9,507 $14,089 $5,693 $5,693 $2,614
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

Campaign finance reports for January 1-March 17, 2014 were due Monday.

Posted in 73rd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

CRA Recap: Bates, Ming Unanimously Endorsed; Steel, Brough, Harper Endorsed; CD-45 Deadlock

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 1, 2014

CRA Logo

OC Political live-blogged the Orange County CRA endorsements this morning.  Here’s the quicky recap for those of you who just want the results:

CRA Endorsements

  • Supervisor Patricia Bates was endorsed by unanimous consent for the 36th Senate District.
  • Laguna Niguel Councilman Robert Ming was endorsed by unanimous consent for the 5th Supervisorial District.
  • Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel was endorsed for the 2nd Supervisorial District, defeating Assemblyman Allan Mansoor 28-9.
  • Dana Point Councilman Bill Brough was endorsed for the 73rd Assembly District, defeating Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Jesse Petrilla 12-3, with former Laguna Niguel Councilman Paul Glaab receiving no votes.
  • Huntington Beach Mayor Matt Harper was endorsed for the 74th Assembly District, defeating Newport Beach Councilman Keith Curry 14-3.
  • In the 45th Congressional District, Supervisor John Moorlach and Senator Mimi Walters fought through three rounds, but the convention deadlocked, so no endorsement was made in this race.  In the first round, Walters got 13 votes while Moorlach got 12, and retired United States Marine Corps Colonel Greg Raths received no votes.  Walters and Moorlach advance to a second-round run-off, in which they tied with 12 votes each.  In the third and final round, Walters got 14 votes while Moorlach got 9 votes.  It required a 2/3 vote to endorse, so CD-45 failed to produce an endorsement.

All other races on the June ballot will be considered in three weeks on Saturday, March 22.

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 36th Senate District, 45th Congressional District, 5th Supervisorial District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Live from CRA Endorsing Convention

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 1, 2014

We’re live from the Orange County CRA endorsing convention in Buena Park.

2ND SUPERVISORIAL DISTRICT

First up is Second Supervisorial District. Apologies to Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel and Assemblyman Allan Mansoor as a technical glitch delayed the start of my liveblogging, so we don’t have coverage of their opening speeches.

This one is a long ballot with seven units eligible to vote: Costa Mesa, Fountain Valley, Huntington Beach, West Orange County, Stanton, Corona Del Mar, and Buena Park.

28 votes were cast for Michelle Steel.
9 votes were cast for Allan Mansoor.

STEEL ENDORSED.

45TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Next up is the 45th Congressional District.

First to speak is Supervisor John Moorlach. He speaks about his tenure in CRA, including as a unit president and state assistant treasurer. He says he’s pro-life and pro-death penalty. He speaks about how he entered elected office to run against Democrat Robert Citron. He says all five Republicans who were members of the Board of Supervisors back then opposed his candidacy, so Moorlach is not afraid to stand up to the powers that be. He speaks about the OC bankruptcy. He speaks about his record reducing medical unfunded liability. He speaks about his ordinance that banned PLAs in County government (except when mandated by the federal government). He speaks about stopping County funding of Planned Parenthood. He spoke of his charter amendment requiring retroactive pension increases to be approved by voters. He speaks of his opposition to eminent domain. He speaks of his opposition to the Anaheim streetcar. He notes his endorsement by Tom McClintock.

Don Gilchrist asks how many CPAs will be in Congress if Moorlach wins. Moorlach takes the opportunity to note that he’s reduced the number of County employees. He says there are two CPAs, and he will increase it by 50%.

A delegate asks about medical marijuana. Moorlach says he is open to use of medical marijuana for legitimate medical purposes. He speaks of his vote for medical marijuana ID cards and of his late brother-in-law’s use of medical marijuana.

Greg Raths sent Bob Schuman to represent him due to Raths being at his sister-in-law’s funeral. Schuman says Raths is not a politician nor is he beholden to lobbyists. Raths served in the military. Schuman says Raths is the only Republican candidate who actually lives in CD-45. He says Raths was Assistant Chief of Staff for the White House Military Office. He says Raths wants to cut the size and scope of government to help businesses create jobs. He notes Raths’s wife teaches at UCI and their two daughters are teachers, and Raths supports local control by getting the federal government out of education. He says Raths supports increased vocational education. He says Raths wants to repeal Obamacare. Schuman says Obama is killing the American Dream, and he says Raths wants to get government out of people’s way to restore the American Dream.

A delegate asks if it’d be productive to have a vote to repeal Obamacare since there were already 34 failed votes.

Schuman says we need to elect more people who oppose Obamacare to

Senator Mimi Walters talks about her four children: three in college and one high school senior. She’s been married 25 years. She speaks of her activism. She speaks of being elected to the Laguna Niguel City Council while pregnant in 1996. She speaks of her tough race to be successfully elected to the Assembly and her race for the Senate. She speaks of her 100% rating from the CA Taxpayers Assn and the Pro-Life Council. She speaks of her “A” rating from both the CRA and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association. She says she wants to cut taxes to spur consumer spending to help the economy. She says we need to pay off the national debt. She says we need the Keystone Pipeline and a strong national defense. She says that Obamacare needs to be repealed and reformed. She notes she’s been campaigning every single day since John Campbell retired. She notes endorsements from most of the CA Congressional delegation and various local endorsements.

Benita Gagne asks if Walters supports impeaching Obama.

Walters says it’s more important to pass issues by working with Democrats rather than making herself less relevant by trying to impeach Obama.

Jen Beall thanks Walters for her support in Capistrano Unified School District and asks her what she plans to do to fight Obamacare.

Walters says Republicans are working on a thoughtful plan that she was told about when she was in DC.

A delegate asks if she’s accepted any union money.

Walters says she has not accepted any union money from the $700,000 she raised and notes neither of her opponents has more than $50,000.

In the 45th Congressional District, Rancho Santa Margarita, Saddleback, Anaheim, Tustin, and Orange/Villa Park are voting.

There is no endorsement after the first round because no candidate has reached 2/3. The vote totals are not announced.

There are 12 votes for Moorlach, 13 votes for Walters, and no votes for Raths.

Walters says she is the true conservative with a proven record. She says she has an A+ CRA rating. She says she has stood up to Democrats in the Legislature. She says she is endorsed by Congressmen Ed Royce, Darrell Issa, Doug La Malfa, and Duncan Hunter.

Moorlach says the County was forced to implement Obamacare. He says he successfully opposed a federal grant to advertise Obamacare’s anti-obesity efforts. Moorlach says he will be a hardworking accountant who will fight to cut the budget and taxes. He says he fought against the 405 toll road as a double tax.

There is now a tie, with 12 votes each for Moorlach and Walters.

Moorlach speaks of Orange County’s improved credit rating and the nation’s poor credit. He says his pollster did President Ronald Reagan’s pollster. Moorlach says the polling shows he is ahead of Walters. He says he will ramp up fundraising. He says he will be a great Congressman. He says CRA should put one of its own members in Congress.

Walters speaks of her ratings. She says she “badly wants” the CRA endorsement. She says she is the only candidate who has to go to Sacramento during the week making it difficult for her to campaign in the district. She says she tried to reach out to the delegates that she doesn’t know really well. She says she has been a grassroots volunteer for 20 years.

Walters received 14 votes, Moorlach received 9 votes.

NO ENDORSEMENT IN CD-45.

74TH ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

Huntington Beach Mayor Matt Harper speaks about his activism since the Doris Allen recall. He speaks about his efforts to defeat school bonds, taxes, the beach fire ring ban, and the 405 toll lanes.

A delegate asks about amnesty and about the Lincoln Club’s immigration plan.

Harper says he opposes both.

Newport Beach Councilman Keith Curry did not fill out the CRA questionnaire. He notes he’s been to CRA conventions since 1974, one year before Harper ewas born. Curry speaks of his work with Paul Gann to pass the Gann Limit. He speaks of working for the Reagan Administration. He speaks of joining a private company that he eventually co-owned and grew to 400 employees. He speaks of his work at Concordia University with Christian students. He speaks of his passage of pension reform in Newport Beach, including an award from the OC Taxpayers Association for the City. He speaks of his work getting a Ronald Reagan statue erected. He speaks of protecting Prop 13 and opposing the split role. He speaks of opposing tax increases and supporting tax cuts. He speaks of opposing AB 109 prison realignment. He speaks of supporting local control for beach fire rings.

Former Newport Beach Councilman Dick Nichols asks about the Newport Beach budget being balanced via pension accounting gimmicks.

Curry says the state changed the CalPERS assumption rate, but Newport Beach still has a balanced budget regardless of the CalPERS moving target.

A delegate asks about amnesty and about the Lincoln Club immigration plan.

Curry says he’s a longtime Lincoln Club member, he opposes amnesty, and he supports immigration reform.

For the 74th Assembly District, the CRA units voting are Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach, Saddleback, and Corona Del Mar.

There were 14 votes for Matt Harper, and 3 votes for Keith Curry.

HARPER ENDORSED.

36TH SENATE DISTRICT

Supervisor Pat Bates says she’s probably Orange County’s longest serving elected official, but she shouldn’t be considered a career politican. She was a social worker helping people get a hand up, not a hand out. She speaks of her husband’s business and their battles against government regulation. She speaks of needing to break the Democrats’ supermajority. She speaks of the need for Sacramento politicians to be in touch with their districts. She speaks of her conservative activism. She speaks of founding Laguna Niguel. She speaks of supporting CCWs. She speaks of opposing the “nanny government” social host ordinance. She speaks of being supported by conservative organizations over the years. She says she is currently unopposed but doubts she will be unopposed by the end of filing.

Craig Alexander asks about the Board of Supervisors vote on Planned Parenthood funding.

Bates thanks Craig for his help in her efforts with Moorlach to stop the Planned Parenthood funding. She speaks of working with Moorlach to turn down the Obamacare grant for food pyramids. She speaks of her disabled relative who lost health insurance for a month because of Obamacare.

Chandra Chell asks about Joel Anderson’s bill to protect the 4th Amendment.

Bates says she’s supportive of Anderson’s efforts.

BATES ENDORSED BY UNANIMOUS CONSENT.

5TH SUPERVISORIAL DISTRICT

Laguna Niguel Councilman Robert Ming speaks of being in the trenches with conservative activists. He speaks of changes coming to the Board of Supervisors, with Bates and Moorlach terming out and Janet Nguyen running for the 34th Senate District. He speaks of his themes of integrity, fiscal responsibility, and leadership. Laguna Niguel keeps its promises to voters. Laguna Niguel has no debt rating because it has no debt. He speaks about the County’s labor contract negotiations. He speaks of his business experience negotiating contracts. He speaks of founding the ACC-OC to leave the leftward League of Cities. He speaks of creating the Pension Reform Committee as ACC-OC’s first committee. He speaks of his endorsements by numerous conservative officials. He notes that neither of his opponents have sought the endorsement.

MING ENDORSED BY UNANIMOUS CONSENT.

73RD ASSEMBLY DISTRICT

Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Jesse Petrilla sent a representative because he is with his National Guard unit. Petrilla says he is a strong voice for fiscal conservatism and social conservatism. He declined the City Council health and retirement benefits. He speaks of being attacked for charges from his troubled youth of charges he beat. He speaks of serving in the military in Afghanistan, of being a husband, and of being a father.

Rancho Santa Margarita Mayor Tony Beall asks about Petrilla’s 2001 felony convictions and about his untruthfulness in 2014 about the incident and that he didn’t beat the charges because he was sent to jail and the charges were expunged not beaten and that he is still required by the Court to disclose the convictions.

The spokeswoman says 30-year-old Petrilla has done a 180 since he was 17 years old when these incidents occurred. She points to second chances for Jim Rogan, Darrell Issa, and Tony Rackauckas.

Dana Point Councilman Bill Brough speaks of his service in the United States Army as a paratrooper on active duty. He speaks of his work in Congressman Chris Cox’s office and of his work in the White House. He speaks of fighting the establishment when he was elected to the Dana Point Council, including his efforts to stop a Dana Point plastic bag ordinance. He speaks of the Dana Point Town Center plan where new public-private partnerships are building six projects after years of stagnation. He speaks of his record on pension reform. He speaks of ending hand outs. He homeschools his son. He pulled himself up by his bootstraps. He says AD-73 is the second-safest Republican seat in the Assembly and should be occupied by someone who will help elect more Republicans.

Former Laguna Niguel Councilman Paul Glaab says all the AD-73 candidates are friends running for something not against each other. Glaab says he’s Catholic, pro-life, and a lifelong Republican. Glaab says Walters, Bates, and Ming all stole his thunder since they all spoke about the record in Laguna Niguel. He notes Laguna Niguel is one of the best run cities in America. He says he is pro-gun and pro-2nd Amendment. He says government needs to be reined in. He says it is important to be pro-business. Glaab calls CRA an “association.”

For the 73rd Assembly District, the units voting are Rancho Santa Margarita, Saddleback, and South Orange County.

There were 12 votes for Brough, 3 votes for Petrilla, and no votes for Glaab.

BROUGH ENDORSED.

Convention adjourns to March 22.

TODAY’S ENDORSEMENTS

Supe-5: Ming (Unanimously)
SD-36: Bates (Unanimously)

Supe-2: Steel
AD-73: Brough
AD-74: Harper

CD-45: No endorsement

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 36th Senate District, 45th Congressional District, 5th Supervisorial District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 9 Comments »

Live from OCGOP Central Committee: Early Endorsements

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 17, 2014

We’re here live at OCGOP Central Committee for Early Endorsements for the Primary Election.

(7:13 PM): A slew of Youth Associates have been sworn in.

(7:18 PM): Sergio Picchio, former Field Representative to Assemblyman Don Wagner, is receiving the Donald Award for Legislative Staffer of the Year on the occasion of his retirement.

(7:26 PM): Minutes are approved.

(7:27 PM): Announcement of the passing of Jack Christiana.

(7:29 PM): The candidates and elected officials present are introducing themselves: Lucille Kring, Ceci Iglesias, Michelle Steel, Diane Harkey, Baron Night, David Shawver, Robert Hammond, Scott Voigts, Tony Beall, Mike Munzing, Robert Ming, Jim Righeimer, Steven Choi, Phillip Chen, Helen Hayden, Paul Glaab, Tom Tait, Julia Ross, Michael Glen, Tim Shaw, Brett Barbre, Travis Allen, Deborah Pauly, Mark Wyland, Jeff Lalloway, Fred Whitaker, Michael Gates, Steve Nagel, Mark McCurdy, Janet Nguyen, Matt Harper, Lee Ramos, Hugh Nguyen, Dean Grose, Lynn Schott, Jeff Ferguson, Allan Mansoor, Kevin Haskin, Shari Freidenrich, Keith Curry, Ray Grangoff, Eric Woolery, Carlos Vazquez, Claude Parrish, Anna Bryson, Tony Rackauckas, Long Pham, Emanuel Patrascu, Don Wagner, and Young Kim.

(7:36 PM): OCGOP Chairman Scott Baugh speaks about the successful Republican effort in the San Diego Mayor’s race.

He also speaks about Republican efforts to replace Irvine Councilman Larry Agran with Lynn Schott.

(7:39 PM): Irvine Mayor Pro Tem Jeff Lalloway announces that Anaheim Mayor Tom Tait has been named one of the two 2013 OCGOP Local Elected Official of the Year (alongside Supervisor Janet Nguyen who was also announced as the other winner of the award previously).

Baugh gives speaks about Tait’s mayoralty.

Tait thanks the Central Committee for the award.

(7:41 PM): Chairman Scott Baugh brings up early endorsement consideration for District Attorney Tony Rackauckas.

Alexandria Coronado asks a procedural question, to which Baugh responds.

(7:42 PM): TJ Fuentes moves and Mark Bucher seconds the Rackauckas endorsement. He is endorsed unanimously.

RACKAUCKAS ENDORSED

(7:43 PM): Robert Hammond moves and Charlotte Christiana seconds the endorsement of Treasurer-Tax Collector Shari Freidenrich. She is endorsed unanimously.

FREIDENRICH ENDORSED

(7:45 PM): Michelle Steel moves and Tim Whitacre seconds the endorsement of Diane Harkey for Board of Equalization.

Deborah Pauly offers a substitute motion, and Allan Mansoor seconds, to table until the close of filing since there is no incumbent, and more Republicans might jump in.

(7:47 PM): Baugh rules both motions out of order after determining that candidates need to speak before either motion can be made.

(7:49 PM): Baugh says three BOE candidates were notified: Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, Senator Mark Wyland, and former Assemblyman Van Tran. Harkey and Wyland are here, but Tran is not.

(7:50 PM): Harkey opens by describing the BOE’s function. She speaks about her private sector career dealing with corporations and taxation. She speaks about the importance of limiting the field, so that campaign funds can be focused instead of divided. Harkey says it’s critical to get the third vote on actions on the BOE. She speaks about her successful efforts to gain Democrats’ votes to kill legislation. She speaks about how the Legislative Analyst’s Office credited Harkey with getting more oversight against cap and trade. Harkey says she could have walked into Supervisor or Senate, but BOE is the job she wants. She says both she and Wyland are also asking for San Diego GOP Central Committee’s endorsement.

(7:53 PM): Wyland thanks the Central Committee for its work. He talks about how he owned his own 100-200 employee business and how he had to deal with the BOE dozens of times as a business owner. He says he knows how to reform the BOE. He says there were three efforts to unionize his employees, but he defeated those three efforts, so he knows how to fight unions. He notes his electoral background and how he’s given over $1,000,000 to help conservative campaigns. He speaks about how he gave $100,000 to Tony Strickland’s 2008 Senate race when Strickland defeated Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson by less than one vote per precinct. Wyland urges the Central Committee to delay an endorsement vote until after filing closes.

(7:56 PM): Pat Shuff asks the two candidates what was their CRA score. Harkey says 100%. Wyland is unsure what his CRA score was, but got 100% from both Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association and California Taxpayers Association.

(7:59 PM): Mr. White asks why Wyland doesn’t want an endorsement made tonight.

Baugh notes dual endorsing is unprecedented but possible.

Wyland says he’s fine with a dual endorsement. He says he’s only requesting the San Diego GOP Central Committee endorsement purely as a defensive major since Harkey’s asked for the Central Committee endorsement. He says he wishes Central Committees would avoid pre-primary endorsements when there’s multiple Republicans.

Harkey says Central Committees should endorse and frequently do. She says Prop 14 has made this more important. She says AD-65 and SD-34 need money, so endorsements can help stop the spillage of money in intraparty primary matters.

(8:03 PM): Desare’ Ferraro asks if a Democrat has filed for BOE and if the seat is in danger.

Harkey says one Democrat has filed, but it’s a Republican seat, though she notes Democrats are gaining.

(8:04 PM): Jeff Matthews asks the two candidates if they’re Republicans in good standing.

Harkey says she’s highly rated by a slew of conservative organizations and the importance of helping candidates both with manpower and money.

Wyland says their vote records are probably quite similar. He again urges Central Committee neutrality and letting the electorate decide. He again notes he’s given financial support to candidates. He speaks of party unity.

(8:06 PM): Steve Nagel asks if either has taken union money.

Both admit taking union money for their legislative races.

(8:07 PM): Kermit Marsh asks what other counties the two have requested.

Harkey says she has requested them in every county in the BOE 4th District.

Wyland says he has not done so.

(8:08 PM): Robert Hammond asks how each voted on an Assembly bill funding Common Core.

Harkey says she didn’t vote for it.

Wyland notes he served on his school board and is proposing legislation to restrict state funding of Common Core. He says he didn’t vote for the bill that Hammond is asking about.

(8:10 PM): Mike Munzing talks about his own efforts to fight AB 32 and SB 375 at SCAG and on the City Council. He asks Wyland about his $1500 contribution to Al Gore in the 1980s.

Wyland admits he once was a Democrat but became a Republican long ago. He again notes his $1,000,000 for Republicans. He speaks about his votes against AB 32 and “all” other regulatory bills. Wyland notes Gore was more conservative in 1988 and bragging about being a tobacco farmer.

(8:13 PM): Mark Bucher asks if Diane Harkey’s exception for public safety unions on her no-union pledge (required on the Central Committee endorsement form) applies to the past or prospectively.

Harkey says she’s still taking public safety union money. She says public safety is 80% Republican. She says Republicans need to reach out to them. She says public safety is important to Republicans. She says she agrees with the no-union pledge for local office but opposes it for state office.

(8:17 PM): Tim Whitacre asks if Wyland voted to increase property taxes in 2012 and if he walked out on certain bills, like naming a ship after Harvey Milk and illegal immigration restrictions, to avoid voting for them.

Wyland notes they vote on 2,000-3,000 bills. He doesn’t remember them all, but doubts he voted for that one in 2012. Wyland says he abhors naming a ship after Harvey Milk but it’s possible he may have missed the vote. Wyland says the Assembly allows its members to add their votes after missing them, but the Senate does not allow such a thing. Wyland says he has introduced more legislation on illegal immigration than any other legislator, including requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote and redirecting DREAM Act funding to veterans.

(8:21 PM): Baugh states that no further questions can be asked directly of the candidates due to the Central Committee’s time limit rules.

(8:22 PM): Tim Whitacre moves and Mary Young seconds the endorsement of Diane Harkey.

(8:23 PM): David Shawver says candidates should have formed committees months ago.

(8:24 PM): Assemblyman Allan Mansoor urges no early endorsement because a lot of questions still need to be responded to. He notes he’s worked with both Harkey and Wyland in the Legislature. He says he’s endorsed Harkey. Mansoor says there are multiple Republicans in good standing running for a Republican seat. He says endorsements should only be made if a RINO is running or if there’s risk of a Democrat winning.

(8:25 PM): Tim Whitacre says the Central Committee usually endorses when he wants neutrality. He says he is not being paid by anyone for BOE. He says Harkey is more conservative than Wyland. Whitacre says Harkey’s an OC resident, unlike Wyland. Whitacre notes Harkey is a lifelong Republican. Whitacre believes San Diego GOP Central Committee will probably endorse Wyland. Whitacre says Harkey’s the best qualified.

(8:28 PM): Mark Bucher says neither should be endorsed. He is very concerned that both have taken union money. Bucher says money is taken from members coercively and spent against their beliefs. Bucher says union money is corrupting. Bucher points to what public safety unions have tried to do to Jim Righeimer in Costa Mesa. Bucher says the OCGOP should not abandon the no-union pledge by endorsing one of them.

(8:30 PM): Tony Beall urges the Central Committee to take a leadership role to influence the electorate. Beall says he’s been Mayor of Rancho Santa Margarita, which is represented by both Harkey and Wyland. He says Harkey is regularly in his city, and he’s never met Wyland. Beall acknowledges that Wyland has assisted California campaigns but not OC campaigns. He says Harkey has helped OC campaigns.

(8:33 PM): Deborah Pauly says this is not about Harkey or Wyland: it’s about process. (She does note Wyland has spent 20 years dealing with the BOE as a businessman.) Pauly says the grassroots is sick of the party jamming decisions down the voters’ throats. Pauly points out that this is a five-county race; if different counties endorse differently, it could be used by the Democrats against whichever Republican advances to November. She says she originally supported waiting until after filing closes, but after listening to the debate, she thinks the Central Committee should wait until the voters have decided in the Primary Election.

(8:37 PM): Robert Hammond asks if the Central Committee is allowed to endorse candidates who violated the no-union pledge.

Baugh says it would violate a 2010 resolution but not the bylaws.

(8:39 PM): The voice vote is unclear. Baugh calls for a standing vote. It requires 2/3 of those present and voting to endorse (i.e. abstentions simply lower the vote threshold required to endorse).

(8:41 PM): The vote count is underway.

(8:42 PM): The vote is 35 for Harkey (32 were need to endorse).

HARKEY ENDORSED

Posted in Anaheim, Board of Equalization, Orange County District Attorney's Office, Orange County Treasurer-Tax Collector, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

AD-55: Chang Has One of OC’s Largest Warchests, but Chen’s is Twice as Large

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 13, 2014

Republican AD-55 Candidates: Phillip Chen, Ling-Ling Chang, Craig Young, and Steve Tye

Republican AD-55 Candidates: Phillip Chen, Ling-Ling Chang, Craig Young, and Steve Tye

Campaign finance numbers indicate that voters in AD-55 can look forward to an obscene amount of mail in the run-up to the June Primary.  Ling-Ling Chang wields one of the largest warchests of any candidate who will appear on the 2014 ballot anywhere in Orange County.  However, Phillip Chen has more than double her cash on hand.

Other than Yorba Linda Mayor Craig Young, every declared candidate in the race is a resident of Los Angeles County.  This tri-county Assembly district contains portions of Orange County (Brea, La Habra, Placentia, and Yorba Linda), LA County (Diamond Bar, Industry, Rowland Heights, Walnut, and West Covina), and San Bernardino County (Chino Hills).  Orange County is home to the plurality of all AD-55 voters and the majority of AD-55’s Republican voters.

Here at OC Political, we’ve railed repeatedly against $100,000 paper tiger loans.  (These loans of $100,000 or less are frequently used by candidates to artificially inflate their warchest numbers.  While OC Political has many posts about those, this one is probably the seminal post on the issue.)   Both Chang and Chen gave themselves these $100,000 paper tiger loans, but they seem even more ridiculous in AD-55 than in other districts, considering the significant warchests wielded by both Chen and Chang.  (The OC Political post on AD-55 campaign finances from the last reporting period was entitled, “AD-55: Land of the $100,000-Loan Paper Tigers,” and was even picked up by the San Gabriel Valley Tribune.)

I will give Chen credit for actually spending his own money, as I did for AD-73 Candidate Paul Glaab who put in $22,000 of his own money.  Chen put his money where his mouth is by donating $50,000 to his own campaign beyond the $100,000 loan he made to his campaign.  State campaign finance regulations put that $50,000 forever out of Chen’s reach; it is nonrefundable, and he must spend it on the campaign.  Chen was well aware of this regulation and properly reported the $50,000 as a contribution, not a loan.

Chang, a Diamond Bar Councilwoman, had a strong showing in the first half of 2013, raising $195,348.  Her expenditures were primarily for slate mailers and fundraising expenses.  While her showing for the second half of 2013 was not as strong, her $40,217 raised outpaced every candidate in AD-74, AD-73, and AD-55, except for one. Unfortunately for her, the one is her opponent, Chen.  Chang spent $31,503 in 2013 and has an additional $4,192 in unpaid bills.  Once her $100,000 loan is accounted for, Chang has $172,267 cash on hand.

Chen, a Walnut Valley Unified School District Trustee and a staffer for LA County Supervisor Mike Antonovich, entered the race late in the first half of 2013, so he raised nothing by June 30, except for his massive transfer of $219,000 on June 27 from his school board account (Outside of LAUSD, are there any school board members in Southern California who have ever had such a huge warchest?).  However, that entire sum was raised into his school board account from February 7-June 15, so presumably, his donors were expecting him to use that money to run for the Assembly, and indeed many of them gave him $4,100 (the maximum that can be legally donated for an Assembly race; school boards have no contribution limits).  In the second half of 2013, Chen raised $141,242, transferred in another $3,000 from his school board account, and personally donated $50,000.  He spent $53,833 in 2013 and has an additional $1,635 in unpaid bills.  Chen’s expenditures ran the gamut, including campaign literature, slate mailers, consulting fees, and a poll.  Once his $100,000 loan is accounted for, Chen has $357,974 cash on hand.

Young, the sole Orange County resident in the race, entered the race during the second half of 2013, during which time, he raised $30,758 and spent $20,928, leaving him with $9,830 cash on hand.  Young’s expenditures were nearly all consulting fees.  He is the only candidate in the race who made no transfers, has no loans, and has no unpaid bills.

Steve Tye, Chang’s Council colleague, entered the race after the last reporting period concluded, so no report exists for him.

Chang, Young, and Tye no longer have to fear any more transfers from Chen’s school board account, which only has $1,696 left in it.  Chang actually substantially outraised Chen for this Assembly race (her $235,565 for 2013 versus his $141,242), but she’s massively behind in cash-on-hand thanks to that absolutely massive school board account that Chen moved into his Assembly account.

For visual learners:

Candidate 1/1/13-6/30/13
Contributions		 7/1/13-12/31/13
Contributions		 Transfers Candidate
Contributions		 Candidate
Loans		 Unpaid
Bills		 Expenditures Cash on Hand
(COH)		 COH Minus
Unpaid Bills		 COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
& Loans
Chen $0 $141,242 $222,200 $50,000 $100,000 $1,635 $53,833 $459,609 $457,974 $357,974
Chang $195,348 $40,217 $2,600 $0 $100,000 $4,192 $31,053 $276,459 $272,267 $172,267
Young N/A $30,758 $0 $0 $0 $0 $20,928 $9,830 $9,830 $9,830
Tye N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

 

To demonstrate the shear size of the AD-55 warchests, I’ll compare them with the ones in AD-73 and AD-74. Chang raised more money in the first half of 2013 than all of the AD-74 candidates combined in the entirety of their campaigns, and she has more cash-on-hand than all the AD-74 candidates combined (even if you include all the AD-74 candidate loans and exclude Chang’s loan).  Chang also has more cash-on-hand than all the AD-73 candidates combined.  Keeping all of that in mind, now remember that Chen has twice as much cash-on-hand that Chang does.  Clearly, AD-55 will be the glitziest Assembly race on the June 2014 ballot in Orange County.

Posted in 55th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

AD-73: Petrilla Maintains Fundraising Lead, Brough Net Positive, Bryson Spending Big, Glaab in Debt

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 5, 2014

Next up in OC Political’s ongoing in-depth analysis of campaign finance figures is the race for the 73rd Assembly District seat being vacated by the termed out Diane Harkey, who is running for the Board of Equalization seat being vacated by the termed out Michelle Steel, who is running for the Second District Supervisor’s seat being vacated by the termed out John Moorlach, who is running for the 45th Congressional District seat being vacated by John Campbell, who voluntarily retired.  (That incredibly long sentence demonstrates a recurring theme in 2014.  Between AD-55, AD-73, AD-74, SD-34, CD-45, the Second Supervisorial District, the Fifth Supervisorial District, and possibly SD-36, there isn’t a single place in Orange County without a major competitive race at some point this year.)

Republican AD-73 Candidates: Jesse Petrilla, Anna Bryson, Bill Brough, Paul Glaab

Republican AD-73 Candidates: Jesse Petrilla, Anna Bryson, Bill Brough, Paul Glaab

There are four announced Republican candidates in AD-73: Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Jesse Petrilla, Dana Point Councilman Bill Brough, Capistrano Unified School District Trustee Anna Bryson, and former Laguna Niguel Councilman Paul Glaab.  One Democrat, Attorney and Irvine Valley College Professor Wendy Gabriella, has announced for the race.  Gabriella’s entry in the race virtually guarantees a Republican vs. Democrat general election, with the Republican winning handily and spares South County Republicans an AD-73 general election intraparty bloodbath.

For a walk down memory lane, here’s what I wrote six months ago after the last set of campaign finance numbers came out in AD-73.  On to the latest numbers…

Jesse Petrilla held on to his fundraising lead, but more notably, his massive lead from the previous fundraising period combined with his tight-fisted approach to spending has given him more cash-on-hand than all of his opponents combined.  He raised $69,230 the prior period and $35,609 this latest period, giving him a total raised of $104,839.  He spent a remarkably low $8,182 in both periods combined.  Once loans and unpaid bills are accounted for, Petrilla’s $96,593 cash on hand exceeds that of all of his opponents combined.

While not as dramatic as Petrilla, Bill Brough is steadily building his warchest and is spending less than he’s raising, thereby producing a net positive.  Brough raised $50,943, with $30,899 from the prior period and $20,044 this period while spending $16,345 this period (and $5,315 the prior period), leaving him with $29,270 cash on hand once loans are accounted for (Brough was the sole candidate who had no unpaid bills in AD-73.)

Anna Bryson spent slightly more than she took in during the latest reporting period in the second half of 2013, so she’s eaten into the money she raised in the prior reporting period from the first half of 2013.  Fees dominated her spending.  She paid a consulting firm, two fundraising firms, and a treasurer.  Bryson raised $85,143, with $53,052 the prior period and $32,091 in the latest period while spending $32,140 in this period (and $10,570 the prior period), leaving her with $37,433 cash on hand once loans and unpaid bills are accounted for.

Here at OC Political, we’ve railed repeatedly against the $100,000 paper tiger loans.  (These loans of $100,000 or less are frequently used by candidates to artificially inflate their warchest numbers.  While OC Political has many posts about those, this one is probably the seminal post on the issue.)  I will give Paul Glaab credit for actually spending his own money.  Glaab put his money where his mouth is, and donated $22,000 to his own campaign beyond the $100,000 loan he made to his campaign.  State campaign finance regulations put that $22,000 forever out of Glaab’s reach; it is nonrefundable, and he must spend it on the campaign.  Glaab was well aware of this regulation and properly reported the $22,000 as a contribution, not a loan.

Glaab secured the vast majority of slate mailers.  There are five major slate vendors, with Glaab grabbing three of them, including the two vendors who produce the most slate mailers.  Bryson grabbed one vendor.  It appears the fifth vendor is up for grabs still.

However, this massive spending has left Glaab as the only candidate in debt.

Glaab raised $13,337 this period and $14,749 the prior period, for a total of $28,086.  Adding his own $22,000, that brings that figure to $50,086, which is still the lowest amount raised of any of the four candidates.  He spent a negligible $470 the prior period and $49,549 in this latest period.  His aggregate $50,019 was the most spent of any of the four candidates.  With the least raised and most spent, Glaab has heavily relied on his self-funding.  Once unpaid bills and loans are accounted for, Glaab is $6,617 in debt.

Here’s the chart:

Candidate 1/1/13-6/30/13
Contributions		 7/1/13-12/31/13
Contributions		 Candidate
Contributions		 Candidate
Loans		 Unpaid
Bills		 1/1/13-6/30/13
Expenditures		 7/1/13-12/31/13
Expenditures		 Cash on Hand
(COH)		 COH Minus
Unpaid Bills		 COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
& Loans
Petrilla $69,230 $35,609 $0 $3,500 $388 $3,622 $4,560 $100,481 $100,093 $96,593
Bryson $53,052 $32,091 $0 $69,600 $5,000 $10,570 $32,140 $112,033 $107,033 $37,433
Brough $30,899 $20,044 $0 $100 $0 $5,315 $16,345 $29,370 $29,370 $29,270
Glaab $14,749 $13,337 $22,000 $100,000 $6,685 $470 $49,549 $100,068 $93,383 -($6,617)
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

Campaign finance reports for January 1-June 30, 2013 were due last week.

Posted in 73rd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

AD-73 Surprise: Petrilla Leads Fundraising

Posted by Chris Nguyen on August 1, 2013

Jesse Petrilla, Steve Baric, Anna Bryson, Bill Brough, Paul Glaab

Republican AD-73 Candidates and How Much They Raised in the First Half of 2013:
Jesse Petrilla ($69,230), Steve Baric ($54,470), Anna Bryson ($53,052), Bill Brough ($30,899), Paul Glaab ($14,749)

In a surprise development, campaign finance reports show Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Jesse Petrilla leads the pack in fundraising in the 73rd Assembly District race.  The narrative in AD-73 had generally been that Rancho Santa Margarita Councilman Steve Baric, the immediate past Vice Chairman of the California Republican Party, would be the top fundraiser in AD-73 and that Petrilla would depend on a low-budget grassroots strategy.  Indeed, throwing in former Laguna Niguel Councilman Paul Glaab’s fundraising figures, Petrilla raised more than Baric and Glaab combined.

Petrilla raised the most money from donors, with $69,230 in contributions.  Baric followed with $54,470.  Capistrano Unified School District Trustee Anna Bryson was closely behind Baric with $53,052.  Dana Point Councilman Bill Brough (former Chief of Staff to AD-73 incumbent Diane Harkey) was fourth with $30,899.  Finally, Glaab raised $14,749.  I’m only reporting numbers for the Republican candidates, as I have found no indication of a non-Republican running for AD-73 at this point.

It’s still early of course, as the election is in June 2014, and the latest campaign finance reports were for the first half of 2013.  However, these numbers are troubling for Brough and Glaab in that Bryson raised more than Brough and Glaab combined, Baric raised more than Brough and Glaab combined, and Petrilla raised more than Brough and Glaab combined.

In the land of expenditures, Bryson spent more in the first half of 2013 than all of her opponents combined.  She spent $10,570, and the rest of the field expended a combined $9,804.  More than 80% of Bryson’s expenditures went toward consultants.  Brough spent the second most, with $5,315, scattered across numerous small expenses.  Petrilla was third in spending with $3,622, also scattered across numerous small expenses.  A distant fourth in expenditures, Glaab spent $470, which was a single expenditure for appetizers for his June 6 fundraiser.  Spending the least was Baric, who expended $397, with $322 (81%) going to credit card processing fees for his donations and the remaining $75 in tiny, unitemized expenses.

Last week, I wrote about the $100,000 loans to the Baric and Glaab campaigns by the law firm of Baric & Tran and by Paul Glaab, respectively.  Generally, $100,000 loans are paper tigers.  They are used to inflate campaign finance figures to impress donors and scare opponents.  However, when the rubber meets the road, 99% of the time, the candidates do not spend their loan money and repay the loans in their entirety after the election.  (The magic of the $100,000 figure for loans is that it is the most state legislative candidates can lend themselves and still get repaid under state law.  If you’re running for the Legislature, and loan yourself $101,000, that extra $1,000 can never be repaid, per the Government Code.)

According to the Form 460 campaign finance reports, Glaab loaned himself the $100,000 on June 30, the final day of the reporting period, while the law firm of Baric & Tran loaned Baric’s campaign $100,000 also on June 30, though oddly scattered across three loans, one of which was only $48.  Bryson loaned herself $14,600 across four loans made over several months, with a $100 loan in January and loans of $4,750-$5,000, made on a monthly basis in April, May, and June.  Brough lent himself $100, one of the rare loans where I think the candidate will actually spend the money, as I just don’t think the average candidate cares about getting repaid $100.  As their $100 loans were made before receiving any contributions, I suspect the Bryson and Brough $100 loans were simply to meet the minimum deposit requirements to open their bank accounts.

I give Brough credit for taking advantage of the $50 new bank account bonus promotion at Wells Fargo.  I do not recall an instance of a campaign finance report where the candidate used one of these offers.  Although it’s only $50, I always applaud candidates who find creative (yet both legal and ethical) ways to find money for their campaigns.

For visual learners:

Candidate Contributions Other
Income		 Candidate
Loans		 Unpaid
Bills		 Expenditures Cash on Hand
(COH)		 COH Minus
Unpaid Bills		 COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
& Loans
Petrilla $69,230 $0 $0 $0 $3,622 $65,932 $65,932 $65,932
Baric $54,470 $0 $100,000 $0 $397 $154,073 $154,073 $54,073
Bryson $53,052 $0 $14,600 $6,484 $10,570 $61,832 $55,348 $40,748
Brough $30,899 $50 $100 $250 $5,315 $25,734 $25,484 $25,384
Glaab $14,749 $0 $100,000 $3,495 $470 $114,279 $110,784 $10,784
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

Campaign finance reports for January 1-June 30, 2013 were due at 11:59 PM last night.

It’s still early in the campaign finance figures, and the July 1-December 31, 2013 numbers will be more telling, but it’s still surprising that Petrilla outraised Baric by 27% and that he leads the rest of the field in fundraising, as the usual AD-73 narrative was that Petrilla would struggle to raise money, relying on an aggressive ground game for his campaign rather than any significant spending.  As I noted above, Brough and Glaab’s early numbers don’t look promising, as the two of them combined raised less than Bryson, who herself raised less than either Baric or Petrilla.

Posted in 73rd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 9 Comments »

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