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Free Voter Guides Available at Robynnordell.com

Posted by Craig P. Alexander on October 21, 2016

Are you looking for voter recommendations from people that do not get paid from politics (i.e. consultants and slate cards)?

Are you looking for voter recommendations from people that do not accept money to give a proposition, a ballot measure or a candidate the thumbs up (or down)?

Are you looking for advice on national, state wide and local races that include all of the state wide and local ballot propositions / measures?

Then you should go over to Robyn Nordell’s web site for Voter Recommendations from Robyn and some of her friends like myself.

Her general web site is: Robyn Nordell.

Her Orange County page is: Robyn Nordell Orange County.

Finally my favorite page at her site is Craig’s Pics my voter recommendations which Robyn kindly allows to be published there.

She also has information on some other counties in California.

Who is Robyn Nordell?  She is an Orange County homeschool mother and advocate, a pastor’s wife, a tireless advocate for open and transparent government, a social and fiscal conservative and one of the most talented, honest, brightest and kind persons I know.  Robyn does not get paid one penny for her work in researching candidates and ballot propositions / measures, putting together her voter recommendations and publishing them on her web site.  Plus she is gracious to publish others voter recommendation lists (like my own) even when we make recommendations different from her own. She is a Patriot!

Posted in 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Aliso Viejo, Anaheim, Anaheim City School District, Anaheim Union High School District, Board of Equalization, Brea, Brea Olinda Unified School District, Buena Park, Buena Park Library District, Buena Park School District, California, Capistrano Bay Community Services District, Capistrano Unified School District, Centralia School District, Coast Community College District, Costa Mesa, Costa Mesa Sanitary District, Cypress, Cypress School District, Dana Point, East Orange County Water District, El Toro Water District, Emerald Bay Service District, Fountain Valley, Fountain Valley School District, Fullerton, Fullerton Joint Union High School District, Fullerton School District, Garden Grove, Garden Grove Unified School District, Huntington Beach, Huntington Beach City School District, Huntington Beach Union High School District, Irvine, Irvine Ranch Water District, Irvine Unified School District, La Habra, La Habra City School District, La Palma, Laguna Beach, Laguna Beach Unified School District, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Woods, Lake Forest, Los Alamitos, Los Alamitos Unified School District, Lowell Joint School District, Magnolia School District, Mesa Consolidated Water District, Midway City Sanitary District, Mission Viejo, Moulton-Niguel Water District, Municipal Water District of Orange County, Newport Beach, Newport-Mesa Unified School District, North Orange County Community College District, Ocean View School District, Orange, Orange County, Orange County Cemetery District, Orange County Sanitation District, Orange County Water District, Orange Unified School District, Placentia, Placentia Library District, Placentia-Yorba Linda Unified School District, Rancho Santa Margarita, Rancho Santiago Community College District, Rossmoor, Rossmoor Community Services District, Rossmoor/Los Alamitos Area Sewer District, Saddleback Valley Unified School District, San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, Santa Ana, Santa Ana Unified School District, Santa Margarita Water District, Savanna School District, Seal Beach, Serrano Water District, Silverado-Modjeska Recreation and Park District, South Coast Water District, South Orange County Community College District, Stanton, State Assembly, State Senate, Sunset Beach Sanitary District, Surfside Colony Community Services District, Surfside Colony Storm Water Protection District, Three Arch Bay Community Services District, Trabuco Canyon Water District, Tustin, Tustin Unified School District, Uncategorized, Villa Park, Westminster, Westminster School District, Yorba Linda, Yorba Linda Water District | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Still Time to Run: 20 Races Where Incumbents Didn’t File for Re-Election

Posted by Chris Nguyen on August 15, 2016

BeatTheClockUnder California law, the deadline for filing for most offices was this past Friday, August 12.  However, in races where there is an eligible incumbent who chose not to file for re-election, non-incumbents received an extra five days to file. Consequently, the deadline for non-incumbents to file has been extended until 5:00 PM on Wednesday, August 17 for 20 races for college board, school board, and special districts. None of these require nomination signatures, so a prospective candidate could literally pull and file papers in the final minutes before 5:00 PM on August 17.

Three of these contests actually have more seats than candidates.  In other words, there aren’t enough candidates for these races, so anyone who files will go unopposed, but at this point, if no one else files, these three districts will have vacancies:

There’s an additional five contests where the number of seats equal the number of candidates.  In other words, if no one else files, all of these candidates will be elected unopposed:

Looking at the list below, some of you may be wondering why Rancho Santiago Community College District, Trustee Area 1 is not listed.  In that case, incumbent Jose Solorio (D) actually resigned from the seat, so there is no incumbent.  When there’s no incumbent at all, there’s no extension.

For those of you who are curious

Here’s the complete run-down on the 20 contests where filing has been extended to 5:00 PM on August 17 because at least one incumbent failed to file, giving non-incumbents an extra five days to file:

  • North Orange County Community College District, Trustee Area 2
    • Incumbent Leonard Lahtinen (D) did not file for re-election, opting instead to run for Anaheim City Council.  Three candidates have pulled and filed papers to replace him so far:
      • Centralia School District Trustee Art Montez (D), who was on the Centralia Board from 1998-2010, when he was defeated for re-election, lost a 2012 bid to return to the Board, and then finally returned to the Centralia Board in the 2014 election, but he’s already looking for another office just two years later
      • College Educator Ed Lopez (?)
      • Businesswoman/Student Ann-Marie Stinson (D)
  • North Orange County Community College District, Trustee Area 7
    • Incumbent Tony Ontiveros (R), the only Republican on the North Orange County Community College District Board, did not file for re-election.  Only one candidate has pulled papers to replace him:
      • Attorney Barry Wishart (D), who served on the North Orange County Community College District Board from 1985 until his resignation in December 2001, three years into his fourth term
  • Capistrano Unified School District, Trustee Area 3
    • Incumbent John Alpay (R) did not file for re-election, opting instead to run for South Orange County Community College District.  Only one candidate has pulled papers to replace him:
      • Public Information Officer Laura Ferguson (R), who is the PIO for the City of San Clemente
  • Irvine Unified School District
    • There are three incumbents up for re-election: Paul Bokota (D), Lauren Brooks (R), and Michael Parham (R).  Bokota and Brooks filed for re-election, but Parham did not.  In addition to Bokota and Brooks, four other candidates have pulled and filed papers:
      • Irvine Businesswoman/Parent Betty Carroll (NPP)
      • Army Captain/Parent Mark Newgent (?)
      • Irvine Businesswoman/Parent Naz Hamid (D)
      • Attorney Geri Zollinger (D)
  • Laguna Beach Unified School District
    • There are two incumbents up for re-election: William Landsiedel (R) and Jan Vickers (D).  Vickers filed for re-election, but Landsiedel did not.  In addition to Vickers, two other candidates have pulled and filed papers:
      • Constitutional Lawyer/Author Howard Hills (R)
      • Community Volunteer Peggy Wolff (D)
  • Orange Unified School District, Trustee Area 6
    • Incumbent Mark Wayland (R) did not file for re-election.  Three candidates have pulled papers to replace him:
      • Child Care Supervisor Nicole Baitx-Kennedy (NPP), the only one who has filed papers so far
      • Realtor Jeremy Wayland (R), the retiring incumbent’s son
      • Danielle Jacobs (R), who is director of operations for Sheldon Development, LLC, run by Orange County Water District Director Steve Sheldon (R)
  • Saddleback Valley Unified School District
    • There are three incumbents up for re-election: Ginny Fay Aitkens (D), Amanda Morrell (R), and Suzie Swartz (R).  Morrell and Swartz filed for re-election, but Aitkens did not.  In addition to Morrell and Swartz, five other candidates have pulled papers:
      • Retired Educator Edward Wong (NPP)
      • Teacher Bill Yarrington (R)
      • Water Agency Manager Mark Tettemer (R), a former Lake Forest City Councilman who retired in 2012 after two terms to pursue a Master of Public Administration
      • School Maintenance Specialist David Johnson (?)
      • Businessman Theo Hunt (D)
  • Santa Ana Unified School District
    • There are three incumbents up for re-election: Jose Hernandez (NPP), Cecilia Iglesias (R), and Rob Richardson (R).  Iglesias filed for re-election, but Hernandez and Richardson did not.  In addition to Iglesias, seven other candidates have pulled papers:
      • Recreation Program Coordinator Gloria Alvarado (D)
      • Attorney/Santa Ana Commissioner Bruce Bauer (D)
      • Teacher/Parent Rigo Rodriguez (?)
      • Supervising Social Worker Alfonso Alvarez (D)
      • Congressional Liaison/Parent Bea Mendoza (D), who works for Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez (D)
      • Educator/Santa Ana Commissioner Mark McLoughlin (NPP), a former Rancho Santiago Community College District Trustee
      • Santa Ana Businesswoman/Economist Angie Cano (R)
  • Huntington Beach City School District
    • There are two incumbents up for re-election: Bridget Kaub (R) and Brian Rechsteiner (R). Kaub filed for re-election, but Rechsteiner did not.  In addition to Kaub, three other candidates have pulled papers:
      • Retired Elementary Principal Ann Sullivan (AI)
      • Rob Fishel (NPP)
      • Elementary Teacher/Parent Karrie Burroughs (R)
  • Ocean View School District
    • There are two incumbents up for re-election: Gina Clayton-Tarvin (D) and Debbie Cotton (R). Clayton-Tarvin filed for re-election, but Cotton did not.  In addition to Clayton-Tarvin, only one other candidate has pulled and filed papers:
      • Social Worker Amalia Lam (D)
  • Westminster School District
    • There are two incumbents up for re-election: Jamison Power (D) and Amy Walsh (R). Power filed for re-election, but Walsh did not.  In addition to Power, two other candidates have pulled and filed papers:
      • Attorney/Business Owner Karl Truong (?)
      • Educator/Entrepreneur Frances Nguyen (R), a former President of the Westminster Chamber of Commerce
  • Capistrano Bay Community Services District
    • No one has pulled papers for these two seats!  There are two incumbents up for re-election: Ambrose Mastro (R) and Stephen Muller (R), the two Republicans on a board with one Democrat and two NPPs.  Neither Mastro nor Muller filed for re-election.
    • At this point, anyone who pulls and files papers will walk into elected office unopposed.  If fewer than two people file for these two seats, the Orange County Board of Supervisors will appoint people to fill the vacancies.
  • Emerald Bay Service District
    • There are two incumbents up for re-election: William Hart (R) and John Marconi (R). Marconi filed for re-election, but Hart did not.  In addition to Marconi, only one other candidate has pulled and filed papers:
      • Real Estate Investor Phil De Carion (NPP)
  • Surfside Colony Community Services District
    • Incumbent Michael Farrell (NPP) did not file for re-election.  Two candidates have pulled and filed papers to replace him so far:
      • Retired Business Owner Rudy LaLonde (R)
      • Linda Garofalo (NPP), ex-wife of former Huntington Beach Mayor Dave Garofalo (R)
  • Three Arch Bay Community Services District
    • No one has pulled papers for the third seat!  There are three incumbents up for re-election: Alan Anderson (R), Elizabeth Gapp (R) and Gary Rubel (R).  While Anderson and Rubel filed for re-election, Gapp did not.  Only Anderson and Rubel have pulled and filed papers.
    • At this point, anyone who pulls and files papers will walk into elected office unopposed.  If a third person does not file for these three seats, the Orange County Board of Supervisors will appoint someone to fill the vacancy.
  • Silverado-Modjeska Recreation and Park District
    • There are two incumbents up for re-election: John Olson (D) and Chay Peterson (NPP). Neither Olson nor Peterson filed for re-election.  Four candidates have pulled and filed papers:
      • IT Consultant Steven Duff (D)
      • Retired Educator Tara Saraye (D)
      • Realtor/Artist/Parent Heidi Murphy-Grande (?)
      • Dion Sorrell (D)
  • Surfside Colony Storm Water Protection District
    • No one has pulled papers for the second seat!  There are two incumbents up for re-election: John Cahoon (L) and Stephen Rowe (D).  While Rowe filed for re-election, Cahooon did not.  Only Rowe has pulled and filed papers.
    • At this point, anyone who pulls and files papers will walk into elected office unopposed.  If a second person does not file for these two seats, the Orange County Board of Supervisors will appoint someone to fill the vacancy.
  • South Coast Water District
    • There are three incumbents up for re-election: Dick Dietmeier (NPP), Rick Erkeneff (R), and Wayne Rayfield (D).  Erkeneff and Rayfield filed for re-election, but Dietmeier did not.  In addition to Erkeneff and Rayfield, four other candidates have pulled papers:
      • Retired Business Owner Bob Moore (R), a former South Coast Water District Director who lost a 2014 re-election bid after foolishly using a non-incumbent ballot designation
      • Retired Project Manager Bob Oakley (R)
      • Civil Engineer Douglas Erdman (NPP), who appears to be the son of South Coast Water District Director Dennis Erdman (R)
      • Former South Coast Water District Director Richard Gardner (D), who lost a 2012 re-election bid seeks a return to his old seat after losing a 2014 bid to reclaim a seat on this board (or he might not seek a return since he has also pulled papers for Municipal Water District of Orange County, Division 7)
  • Yorba Linda Water District
    • There are two incumbents up for re-election: Michael Beverage (R) and Ric Collett (R).  Collett filed for re-election, but Beverage did not.  In addition to Collett, only one other candidate has pulled and filed papers:
      • Retired Business Advisor Benjamin Franklin Parker (R)
    • Incumbent Susan Hinman (R) did not file for re-election.  Three candidates have pulled papers to replace her so far:
      • Moulton-Niguel Water District Director Donald Froelich (R)
      • Business Owner/Consultant Evan Chaffee (R)
      • Registered Professional Engineer Raymond Miller (R)
      • Former South Coast Water District Director Richard Gardner (D), who has also pulled papers for South Coast Water District

Posted in Anaheim, Capistrano Bay Community Services District, Capistrano Unified School District, Centralia School District, Emerald Bay Service District, Huntington Beach City School District, Irvine Unified School District, Laguna Beach Unified School District, Moulton-Niguel Water District, Municipal Water District of Orange County, North Orange County Community College District, Ocean View School District, Orange Unified School District, Saddleback Valley Unified School District, Santa Ana Unified School District, Silverado-Modjeska Recreation and Park District, South Coast Water District, South Orange County Community College District, Surfside Colony Community Services District, Surfside Colony Storm Water Protection District, Three Arch Bay Community Services District, Westminster School District, Yorba Linda Water District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

NOCCCD Special: Blount Defeats Hwangbo, Both Far Ahead of Billings and Salehi

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 10, 2016

While 99.99% of people who were following election results yesterday were looking at the New Hampshire Presidential Primary, yesterday was also election day for the North Orange County Community College District, Trustee Area 3.

I had written about the candidates in this election here and about how the special election came to be here.

Cypress School Board Member Steve Blount (R) defeated La Palma Councilman Steve Hwangbo (R).  They both came in far ahead of Southern California Edison Contract Manager Daniel Billings (NPP), who had been appointed to the NOCCCD seat until his appointment was overturned by petition in favor of the special election, and Buena Park Library Board Member Al Salehi (NPP), who had led the petition effort to overturn the Billings appointment and force this special election for the seat.

NORTH ORANGE COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT
Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 3, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 82 of 82
Vote Count Percentage
STEPHEN T. BLOUNT 2,381 35.6%
STEVE HWANGBO 2,066 30.9%
DANIEL D. BILLINGS 1,246 18.6%
ALAN “AL” SALEHI 990 14.8%

Blount’s entire margin of victory came from the city of Cypress.  While he defeated Hwangbo in Anaheim and Buena Park, it was his Cypress landslide that enabled him to overcome Hwangbo’s massive lead in La Palma.

City Blount Hwangbo Billings Salehi
Anaheim 342 238 133 100
Buena Park 1087 906 738 691
Cypress 577 250 180 109
La Palma 367 657 186 86

Blount beat Hwangbo in Anaheim by 104 votes (12.8%) and in Buena Park by 181 votes (5.2%).  His 327-vote (29.3%) landslide over Hwangbo in Cypress was the key to overcoming Hwangbo’s 290-vote landslide (22.4%) in La Palma over Blount.

  • In Anaheim, Blount won 42.1% while Hwangbo won 29.3%.
  • In Buena Park, Blount won 31.8% while Hwangbo won 26.6%.
  • In Cypress, Blount won 51.7% while Hwangbo won 22.4%.
  • In La Palma, Blount won 28.3% while Hwangbo won 50.7%.

Billings was a consistent and distant third in all four cities while Salehi was a consistent fourth in all four cities.

There’s a certain irony that Salehi financed the effort to overturn the Billings appointment by petition to cause the special election, yet Salehi came in last and Billings came in third.

Posted in North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , , | 2 Comments »

Four Qualify for Special Election for North Orange County Community College District

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 16, 2015

Filing has closed for the North Orange County Community College District Special Election to fill the vacancy left when Area 3 Trustee Donna Miller (D) resigned on June 30 just seven months after being re-elected to a four-year term.  Miller had been on the Board for nearly 19 years.

Four people took out papers to run for the seat, and all four returned them and qualified for the ballot.  In alphabetical order, they are (with their party affiliation and ballot designation):

  • Daniel D. Billings (NPP), Contract Manager
  • Stephen T. Blount (R), Member, Cypress School District Board of Trustees
  • Steve Hwangbo (R), Orange County Businessman/Councilmember
  • Alan ‘Al’ Salehi (NPP), Trustee, Buena Park Library District

Exact ballot order will be determined by a lottery by the Secretary of State later this morning.

Daniel D. Billings

Married to a high school science teacher, Billings works for Southern California Edison. He was the appointee to the seat until Salehi overturned his appointment by petition.  A graduate of Fullerton College, he earned degrees from Whittier College and Azusa Pacific University; he also obtained a certificate at UCI.

Billings does not list any endorsements but does note his unanimous appointment by the NOCCCD Board.

Stephen T. Blount

A member of the Cypress School Board since 2010, Blount is a corporate controller.  He was a Democrat until 2014, when he reregistered as a Republican.  He was the Democrats’ nominee for the 67th Assembly District against Assemblyman Jim Silva (R) in 2008.  Holding a certificate from Cypress College, he earned degrees from Biola University and Azusa Pacific University.

He notes endorsements from Coast Community College District Trustee Jim Moreno (D) and Centralia School District Board President Steve Harris (NPP).  Oddly, he also notes endorsements from several appointed staff: Cypress School District Superintendent.  Normally, staff do not endorse in political races because of the neutral position their offices are supposed to hold.

Blount has endorsed Democrat Sharon Quirk-Silva’s bid to unseat Republican Assemblywoman Young Kim.

Steve Hwangbo

A La Palma City Councilman since 2010, Hwangbo is a businessman and engineer.  He was the top vote-getter in his 2014 re-election, coming in more than 13% ahead of the second vote-getter.  A community college graduate, he earned a degree at UCLA before going on to USC.

A longtime Republican, he notes endorsements from Senator Bob Huff, Senator John Moorlach, Supervisor Shawn Nelson, and Supervisor Michelle Steel.

How This Special Election Got Started & Info on Alan ‘Al’ Salehi

NOCCCD Trustee Area 3 consists of the entire City of La Palma, most of the City of Buena Park, the City of Cypress north of Orange Avenue, and two portions of Anaheim (one north of Ball Road and west of Beach Boulevard; the other north of La Palma Avenue and west of Magnolia Avenue).

Five people applied to fill the vacancy in Trustee Area 3.  In four rounds of voting on August 25:

  • In the first round of voting, the trustees voted: 3 votes for George O’Hara (R), 2 votes for Daniel Billings (NPP), and 1 vote for Jon Hultman (R).
  • In the second and third rounds, George O’Hara and Daniel Billings each got 3 votes.
  • In the fourth round, the NOCCCD trustees voted to appoint Daniel Billings.

Billings was to hold the seat until November 2016, when the seat would be up for a two-year short-term election.  The seat would then resume a regular four-year term in the November 2018 election.

However, Salehi, who the trustees did not support, then used Education Code 5091 and hired petition circulators to get signatures from 1.5% of registered voters within 30 days of the appointment, which invalidated the appointment (removing Billings from office) and triggered a special election.  (1.5% of registered voters in NOCCCD Trustee Area 3 is 799 valid signatures.)

Salehi is a colorful figure:

  • Last month, the Orange County Register reported that the Orange County Registrar of Voters successfully sued Salehi for $4,248 for not paying for his candidate statement in 2014.
  • The Laguna Beach Coastline Pilot reported that Salehi pulled papers for Laguna Beach City Council and Laguna Beach Unified School District in 2010, but on the last day of filing, he registered to vote in Buena Park and filed to run for the Buena Park Library District, where he realized he would be unopposed, as the second candidate to file for two seats.
  • Salehi has made no fewer than 8 unsuccessful bids for elected office:
    • 1996: Laguna Beach Unified School District (winning 11% and coming in last)
    • 1998: Laguna Beach Unified School District (winning 5.7% and coming in sixth out of seven)
    • 2000: Laguna Beach Unified School District (winning 6.5% and coming in last)
    • 2004: Irvine Unified School District (winning 4.8% of the vote and coming in seventh out of eight)
    • 2010: United States Senate (winning 27% of the American Independent Party vote and coming in last in the AIP primary)
    • 2012: Buena Park City Council (winning 9.5% of the vote and coming in fourth out of eight)
    • 2014: United States Congress, 45th District (winning 2.6% of the vote and coming in last)
    • 2014: Buena Park City Council (winning 12.1% of the vote and coming in fourth out of eight)

Posted in North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Special Election Qualifies for North Orange County Community College District Trustee Area 3

Posted by Chris Nguyen on October 8, 2015

On June 30, North Orange County Community College District Trustee Donna Miller (D) resigned just seven months after being re-elected to a four-year term.

Five people applied to fill the vacancy in Trustee Area 3, including Daniel Billings (NPP) and Buena Park Library District Trustee Al Salehi (NPP).  The NOCCCD Board appointed Billings unanimously on August 25.  Billings would hold the seat until November 2016, when the seat would be up for a two-year short-term election.  The seat would then resume a regular four-year term in the November 2018 election.

Salehi then circulated a petition under Education Code 5091, which allows an appointment to be invalidated by a petition of 1.5% of registered voters submitted within 30 days of the appointment, which would then trigger a special election.  (1.5% of registered voters in NOCCCD Trustee Area 3 is 799 valid signatures.)

County Superintendent of Schools Al Mijares (R) must call the special election for a Tuesday within 130 days of certification of the petition (which occurred on Tuesday), so the special election for NOCCCD Trustee Area 3 will likely take place in late January or early February (no later than Tuesday, February 9).

NOCCCD Trustee Area 3 consists of the entire City of La Palma, most of the City of Buena Park, City of Cypress north of Orange Avenue, and two portions of Anaheim (one north of Ball Road and west of Beach Boulevard; the other north of La Palma Avenue and west of Magnolia Avenue).

Besides Salehi, rumored candidates include 21-year-old Centralia School District Trustee Connor Traut (D), Centralia School District Trustee (and former La Palma Councilman) Henry Charoen (R), La Palma Councilman Steve Hwangbo (R), and Anaheim Union High School District Trustee (and former La Palma Councilman) Brian O’Neal (R).  (Update 10/27: This list inadvertently left off Billings; OC Political regrets the error.  O’Neal sent an irate email denying any interest in the seat.)

In both 2012 and 2014, Salehi came in fourth out of eight for Buena Park City Council after moving into the city in 2010.  He won 2.4% of the vote when he came in fourth in the primary for the 45th Congressional District (on the other side of the county, where he had zero name ID) behind now-Congresswoman Mimi Walters (R), Drew Leavens (D), and now-Mission Viejo Councilman Greg Raths (R).

If the election is conducted as an all-mail ballot election (aka all absentee ballot election), NOCCCD taxpayers would pay $168,000-$197,000 for the costs of the election.

Posted in Anaheim, Anaheim Union High School District, Buena Park, Buena Park Library District, Centralia School District, Cypress, La Palma, North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Measure J Hearing Today, Potential Harbinger of What Will Come in Correa Lawsuit

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 18, 2015

north_orange_county_community_college_district_employer_logo_fullThe hearing in the North Orange County Community College District Measure J case is slated to be heard this morning.  After the initial count showed Measure J winning by a very narrow margin (34 “yes” votes need to be tossed for J to fail), Opponents of Measure J launched a recount in order to examine the provisional ballots cast in the election.  Measure J is a $574 million bond measure.

They found 42 provisional ballots that weren’t signed by the voter and “identified hundreds of signatures [on absentee and provisional ballots] that a reasonable person could not identify as similar to the signature on the voter registration card.”

With a four-year-old state law making it harder to toss ballots in a recount, very few recounts (if any) have overturned the results of an election in California.  Indeed, in Orange County, no recount since then has managed to change any winner’s vote margin.

Former Senator Lou Correa has not yet filed his lawsuit in the First Supervisorial District Special Election, but I would suspect that is because his camp is keeping a close eye on the Measure J hearing.  When not even a single vote changed in the recount, leaving Andrew Do in office as the new Supervisor, Correa switched to examining provisional ballots (i.e. the Measure J opponents’ strategy).

If the Measure J opponents prove wildly successful in tossing ballots, that’d be a good sign for Correa.  If the Measure J opponents fail to toss ballots, that’d be a bad sign for Correa.  If Measure J opponents barely prevail in that ballot tossing effort, then Correa’s camp needs to carefully scrutinize whether they have enough ballots to toss to make a difference.  Measure J opponents only need to toss 34 ballots out of 154,118 cast.  Correa needs to toss 43 ballots out of 48,339 cast (technically, 48,626 ballots were cast in the First Supervisorial District Special Election, but those 287 voters who cast blank ballots aren’t likely to matter; had a bunch of them been Correa undervotes, we would have heard about it by now).

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , | 6 Comments »

Correa Suspends Recount After 6,250 Ballots in 16 Precincts Produces No Changes, Switches to Provisional Strategy, Eyes Turn to SD-37

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 10, 2015

Supervisor's Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

One of the last times we’ll use this graphic of Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster), former Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilman Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

After recounting 6,250 ballots in 16 precincts (12.85% of all ballots cast and 15.84% of all precincts) in the First Supervisorial District, no ballots changed.

Correa has opted to suspend the recount to instead focus on provisional ballots, a strategy suggested in a colorful post by Orange Juice Blogger Greg Diamond.

Diamond cited the effort to overturn the North Orange County Community College District’s Measure J in which the measure’s opponents initiated the recount but focused on gathering information about the provisional ballots in order to challenge the provisionals in court.  Their court date is Wednesday, February 18.

However, Measure J opponents have a much shorter road to victory than Correa does.

Simple math explains this: Measure J opponents need to toss 34 out of 154,118 (0.02206%) votes cast.  Correa needs to toss 43 out of 48,626 (0.08843%) votes cast.

Measure J opponents also have the advantage of a multicounty district: they can challenge ballots in the LA County portion of the North Orange County Community College District (that district really needs a name change for the sake of geographic accuracy).  Correa can only challenge ballots in Orange County.

The history books are about to be written on the First Supervisorial District Special Election.

County Supervisor First District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 101 of 101
Vote Count Percentage
ANDREW DO 18,905 39.1%
LOU CORREA 18,862 39.0%
CHRIS PHAN 7,857 16.3%
CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 1,879 3.9%
LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 834 1.7%
MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 2 0.0%

Yesterday, Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley sent out this unintentionally symbolic tweet, as political eyes turn away from the First Supervisorial District Special Election and toward the 37th Senate District Special Election:

It’s only 35 days until the SD-37 Special Election, and the first mailer should arrive in my mailbox any day now.

Wagner, Moorlach, and Namazi

Time to start focusing on this trio of Republicans: Business Owner/Assemblyman Donald P. Wagner, former Orange County Supervisor John M. W. Moorlach, and Naz Namazi

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments »

Correa Recount Highly Unlikely to Succeed, Based on Recent Cases, Do to Be Sworn in This Morning

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 3, 2015

Supervisor's Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

Supervisor’s Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

Last night, former Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana) submitted an official request for a recount to the Orange County Registrar of Voters.  Judging by recent recount efforts, it is highly unlikely that Correa will be able to overturn Supervisor-Elect Andrew Do’s 43-vote lead.

  • In the 2014 general election for the North Orange County Community College District’s Measure J, measure opponents needed to flip 34 votes to block the 55% supermajority to overturn the measure.  Realizing a recount would be unlikely to prevail, the opponents went with the unique method of using the recount as an opportunity to examine the provisional ballots, then ended the recount to instead file suit in court to get the provisionals tossed.  This case is still pending.  However, since provisionals overwhelmingly favored Correa, it is unlikely he would use this method (nor would adding the uncounted provisionals help since there were just a handful of those, so it was far short of 43).
  • In the 2014 general election for Mayor of Garden Grove, then-Mayor Bruce Broadwater (D-Garden Grove) sought a recount to overturn his 15-vote re-election loss to then-School Board Member Bao Nguyen (D-Garden Grove).  Broadwater threw in the towel when the first day of the recount failed to change a single ballot despite 2,500 ballots being recounted, and Nguyen became Mayor.
  • In the 2014 primary election for State Controller, then-Assembly Speaker John Perez (D-Los Angeles) sought a recount to overturn his 481-vote loss to then-Board of Equalization Member Betty Yee (D-San Francisco). Perez gave up after one week when he only managed to change 8 votes in approximately 400 precincts.  Yee advanced to the general election against Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin and won that race to become State Controller.
  • In the 2007 special election for the First Supervisorial District (i.e. the election for this same seat eight years ago when none other than Lou Correa resigned the seat to become a State Senator), then-School Board Member Trung Nguyen (R-Garden Grove) led then-Councilwoman Janet Nguyen (R-Garden Grove) by 7 votes.  Janet Nguyen then sought a recount and netted 14 votes, thereby changing her 7-vote deficit into a 7-vote lead.  Trung Nguyen then went to court and widdled Janet Nguyen’s lead down to 3 votes.  Janet Nguyen, of course, went on to serve eight years in the seat before resigning in 2014 to become a State Senator, triggering the 2015 special election.  One important caveat in this story, state laws regarding recounts were much more generous in allowing ballots to be tossed back then, and even that was only a 14-vote (or 11-vote if you consider the judge’s rulings) switch.

Do’s 43-vote victory is simply too large a margin for Correa to overcome.  I don’t blame Correa for trying, because 43 votes out of 48,626 cast in 101 precincts is tantalizingly close, but he just won’t be able to pull it off.

Do will be sworn in as Supervisor this morning.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, California, Garden Grove, North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Closer Look at Measure J Results, as LA County Issues Notice of Recount

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 11, 2014

Fullerton activist Tony Bushala filed an official request for a recount on Measure J, the $574 million bond in the two-county North Orange County Community College District (NOCCCD).  As a college bond, Measure J requires 55% voter approval to pass.

The LA County Registrar of Voters posted their official notice of recount and an LA County recount costs a shocking $5,074.71-$21,158.49 per day. Orange County has a much more reasonable $600 per day.

NOCCCD has 16 precincts in LA County, where 3,947 votes were cast.  NOCCCD has 522 precincts in Orange County, where 150,171 votes were cast.

Much chatter has been on the recount starting in LA County, as LA County Registrar Dean Logan is believed to be more likely to have erroneous counts than the very competent Orange County Registrar Neal Kelley.  Indeed, the OC Registrar recount in the Garden Grove Mayor’s race was cancelled after one day because not a single ballot changed. (Dean Logan’s role in the 2004 Washington Governor’s race was particularly high profile, as the Republican Dino Rossi led for Governor of Washington in multiple recounts until Logan’s King County found a bunch of ballots for Democrat Christine Gregoire.  Logan left King County to become LA County’s Chief Deputy Registrar in 2006 and became LA County’s Registrar in 2008.)

La Habra Heights (LA County) and Yorba Linda (Orange County) are the strongholds of the “No” vote, where most voters opposed Measure J.  Orange County’s Stanton, Anaheim, Buena Park, Garden Grove, Los Alamitos, and La Habra are the strongholds of the “Yes” vote, as are the unincorporated areas of both counties; voters in these areas voted in favor of Measure J by margins exceeding 55%. OC’s Fullerton, Placentia, La Palma, Cypress, Brea, and unincorporated Rossmoor, along with LA County’s Whittier are the closer areas, where Measure J got over 50% but less than the 55% supermajority.

City/Community Yes No
La Mirada 1 100.00% 0 0.00%
Stanton 2265 65.94% 1170 34.06%
Orange 13 65.00% 7 35.00%
Anaheim 19645 60.51% 12821 39.49%
Buena Park 6942 59.06% 4813 40.94%
Garden Grove 2768 58.62% 1954 41.38%
Los Alamitos 1383 57.01% 1043 42.99%
Seal Beach 1287 55.40% 1036 44.60%
Unincorporated LA County 831 55.40% 669 44.60%
La Habra 2449 55.23% 1985 44.77%
Unincorporated OC (Excluding Rossmoor) 3698 55.11% 3012 44.89%
Fullerton 14308 54.74% 11829 45.26%
Placentia 5562 54.32% 4678 45.68%
La Palma 1819 53.63% 1573 46.37%
Cypress 5675 52.68% 5098 47.32%
Brea 4997 52.59% 4504 47.41%
Whittier 620 52.28% 566 47.72%
Rossmoor 1804 50.73% 1752 49.27%
La Habra Heights 577 45.79% 683 54.21%
Yorba Linda 8136 44.51% 10145 55.49%
TOTAL  84780 55.01% 69338 44.99%

Math should be a nonpartisan issue, so in the spirit of this, I’ll concur with Greg Diamond’s math that overturning Measure J requires tossing 34 “Yes” votes at Orange Juice Blog.

However, I understand why the OC Register states Measure J passed by 15 votes.  With 154,118 votes cast, 55% is 84,765 votes. Measure J got 15 votes more: 84,780.  That does not mean that 15 votes is how to defeat Measure J.

Somehow moving 16 votes from the Yes column to the No column would defeat Measure J.  However, that would be a tall order, as that would literally require the vote counting machines to have counted “No” votes as “Yes” votes 16 times.  That seems rather unlikely, with the increased accuracy of vote counting machines in recent years.

The more likely way to defeat Measure J in the recount would be for 34 “Yes” votes to be tossed, as Diamond’s math explains.  His math and mine agree, but here’s a table that presents it in a different method that may help those confused by Diamond’s description:

“Yes” Votes Tossed Yes No Total 55%
0 84780 55.0097976874862% 69338 44.9902023125138% 154118 84765
1 84779 55.0095057651005% 69338 44.9904942348995% 154117 84765
2 84778 55.0092138389265% 69338 44.9907861610735% 154116 84764
3 84777 55.0089219089641% 69338 44.9910780910359% 154115 84764
4 84776 55.0086299752132% 69338 44.9913700247868% 154114 84763
5 84775 55.0083380376737% 69338 44.9916619623263% 154113 84763
6 84774 55.0080460963455% 69338 44.9919539036545% 154112 84762
7 84773 55.0077541512287% 69338 44.9922458487713% 154111 84762
8 84772 55.0074622023230% 69338 44.9925377976770% 154110 84761
9 84771 55.0071702496285% 69338 44.9928297503715% 154109 84760
10 84770 55.0068782931451% 69338 44.9931217068549% 154108 84760
11 84769 55.0065863328726% 69338 44.9934136671274% 154107 84759
12 84768 55.0062943688111% 69338 44.9937056311889% 154106 84759
13 84767 55.0060024009604% 69338 44.9939975990396% 154105 84758
14 84766 55.0057104293205% 69338 44.9942895706795% 154104 84758
15 84765 55.0054184538912% 69338 44.9945815461088% 154103 84757
16 84764 55.0051264746726% 69338 44.9948735253274% 154102 84757
17 84763 55.0048344916646% 69338 44.9951655083354% 154101 84756
18 84762 55.0045425048670% 69338 44.9954574951330% 154100 84755
19 84761 55.0042505142798% 69338 44.9957494857202% 154099 84755
20 84760 55.0039585199029% 69338 44.9960414800971% 154098 84754
21 84759 55.0036665217363% 69338 44.9963334782637% 154097 84754
22 84758 55.0033745197799% 69338 44.9966254802201% 154096 84753
23 84757 55.0030825140336% 69338 44.9969174859664% 154095 84753
24 84756 55.0027905044973% 69338 44.9972094955027% 154094 84752
25 84755 55.0024984911709% 69338 44.9975015088291% 154093 84752
26 84754 55.0022064740545% 69338 44.9977935259455% 154092 84751
27 84753 55.0019144531478% 69338 44.9980855468522% 154091 84751
28 84752 55.0016224284509% 69338 44.9983775715491% 154090 84750
29 84751 55.0013303999637% 69338 44.9986696000363% 154089 84749
30 84750 55.0010383676860% 69338 44.9989616323140% 154088 84749
31 84749 55.0007463316179% 69338 44.9992536683821% 154087 84748
32 84748 55.0004542917591% 69338 44.9995457082409% 154086 84748
33 84747 55.0001622481098% 69338 44.9998377518902% 154085 84747
34 84746 54.9998702006698% 69338 45.0001297993302% 154084 84747

Posted in North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: | 11 Comments »

Measure J Bond Still Short of 55%, Contrary to OC Numbers – Everyone Forgets LA

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 14, 2014

In the latest numbers from the Orange County Registrar of Voters, Measure J has 55.1%, appearing to break the necessary 55% for the half-billion dollar bond to pass.  Supporters rejoiced and opponents despaired.

J-North Orange County Community College District,
Fullerton/Cypress Colleges Bond Measure
Completed Precincts: 522 of 522
Vote Count Percentage
Bonds – Yes 82,060 55.1%
Bonds – No 66,968 44.9%
 

Both have responded prematurely.  Here’s why:

NO ORANGE CO COMM COLL SP MEASURE J
Los Angeles County Results Only

Measure J Votes Percent
COLLEGE IMPROVEMENT BONDS
YES 1,790 51.44
NO 1,690 48.56
Registration 11,729
Precincts Reporting* 16
Total Precincts 16
% Precincts Reporting 100

Despite being named the North Orange County Community College District, part of the district is in LA County.  Even the Orange County Register forgot.

While Orange County has given daily updates, LA County hasn’t updated since Monday.  Measure J supporters and opponents will be left waiting for LA County to find out the fate of that bond.

Here are what the numbers look like when combining Orange and LA County:

Measure J Votes Percent
Yes 83,850 54.98%
No 68,658 45.02%

With Orange County nearly done counting (if not today, certainly by Monday), LA County is going to determine the fate of Measure J.

Here’s how the district broke down.

Here are the cities where Measure J broke 55%:

City Yes No
Stanton 2247 65.88% 1164 34.12%
Orange 13 65.00% 7 35.00%
Anaheim 19593 60.48% 12802 39.52%
Buena Park 6918 59.03% 4801 40.97%
Garden Grove 2761 58.60% 1951 41.40%
Los Alamitos 1342 57.16% 1006 42.84%
Seal Beach 1262 55.72% 1003 44.28%
La Habra 4493 55.29% 3633 44.71%
 

Here are the cities and unincorporated areas where Measure J failed to break 55% (I’d note Yorba Linda outright voted against Measure J, with 55.52% against the Measure, unlike in the other areas where Measure J fell short of the 55% supermajority but still broke 50%, though Rossmoor is virtually dead even):

City/Area Yes No
Unincorporated OC (Excluding Rossmoor) 1580 54.67% 1310 45.33%
Fullerton 14059 54.60% 11692 45.40%
Placentia 5549 54.35% 4660 45.65%
La Palma 1789 53.50% 1555 46.50%
Cypress 5615 52.59% 5061 47.41%
Brea 4992 52.59% 4500 47.41%
Los Angeles County 1790 51.44% 1690 48.56%
Rossmoor 1744 50.49% 1710 49.51%
Yorba Linda 8103 44.48% 10113 55.52%

Posted in North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: | 3 Comments »