Whenever I write my posts handicapping races, Chris Nguyen gets really angry and stops just short of throwing things at me. With this in mind, I am not going to handicap all races in Orange County. I will select a few races that I find to be a bit more interesting and predict the winners.

We are going to start this season off with a look at the 2nd Supervisorial District race, which features the following candidates:

• Jim Moreno – Governing Board Member, Coast Community College District
• Allan Mansoor – California Assemblyman
• Joe Carchio – Councilman/Retired Businessowner
• Michelle Steel – Board of Equalization Member

Voter registration heavily favors Republicans, with Republicans having 44% of registered voters in District 2, compared to Democrats who hold just 29% of voter registration. With that being said, party affiliation matters very little in a race for Orange County Supervisor since the candidates’ parties are not listed on the ballot, so that will definitely help spare Jim Moreno, the lone Democrat in the race. The 2nd Supervisorial District currently has the following cities within its boundaries:

• Costa Mesa
• Cypress
• Huntington Beach
• La Palma
• Los Alamitos
• Newport Beach
• Seal Beach
• Stanton
• Buena Park (Portion)
• Fountain Valley (Portion)

Also, it is important to explain that the way a race for Orange County Supervisor works is that the top two vote getters will advance to November, unless the top vote getter finishes with over 50% of the vote.

Jim Moreno

Jim Moreno is the lone Democrat in the race and the lone candidate with an education-related ballot designation. His political career is limited to his time on the Coast Community College District Board (since 2006). Let’s take a look at his electoral history.

Results from 2010 (General Election):

COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT Governing Board Member, Trustee Area 1

Completed Precincts: 507 of 507

	Vote Count	Percentage
* JIM MORENO	101,092	63.5%
SHANA CHRISTINA JENKINS	58,068	36.5%

Results from 2006 (General Election):

COAST COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT Governing Board Member Trustee Area 1

Completed Precincts: 497 of 497

	Vote Count	Percentage
JIM MORENO	61696	46.0%
CARL A. HENDON	25916	19.3%
LU TUAN NGUYEN	25711	19.2%
TOM HERMSTAD	20837	15.5%

Moreno does have some name ID through the two elections he has been on the ballot for Coast Community College District.

Moreno has the weakest fundraising numbers as of the last report (under $22,000 cash on hand) and does not appear to have the funds to run a very comprehensive campaign. No direct mail has been sent out at this point, no campaign signs are up, and only a few slates have him on it. I have not gotten any feedback on much of a ground game up to this point which is what he would have needed to have done to be more competitive.

He actually came across very well at the Feet to the Fire candidate debate a few weeks ago, and he was, in my opinion, the second-most impressive candidate at the forum.

Based on the factors above, I think Moreno has a slight chance of advancing to November.

Allan Mansoor

Allan Mansoor beat the odds, if you listened to most predictions back in 2012, when he defeated Leslie Daigle in his re-election bid for the 74th Assembly District. I made the accurate prediction of Mansoor advancing to November with Democrat Bob Rush.

Mansoor spent a number of years as a Costa Mesa Councilmember and then went on to serve as the Assemblymember from the 68th Assembly District in 2010. In 2012 after redistricting, the seat he represents became the 74th Assembly District. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.

Results from 2012 (Open Primary):

MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 74th District

Completed Precincts: 392 of 392

	Vote Count	Percentage
ALLAN R. MANSOOR	33,319	43.5%
ROBERT RUSH	25,120	32.8%
LESLIE DAIGLE	18,207	23.8%

Results from 2010 (Republican Primary):

MEMBER OF THE STATE ASSEMBLY 68th District – Republican

Completed Precincts: 291 of 291

	Vote Count	Percentage
ALLAN R. MANSOOR (REP)	22,063	69.3%
LONG PHAM (REP)	9,777	30.7%

Results from 2006 (General Election):

CITY OF COSTA MESA Member, City Council

Number To Vote For: 2

Completed Precincts: 70 of 70

	Vote Count	Percentage
ALLAN R. MANSOOR	10122	25.9%
WENDY BROOKS LEECE	9524	24.4%
BRUCE GARLICH	8280	21.2%
MIKE SCHEAFER	7255	18.6%
MIRNA BURCIAGA	2717	7.0%
CHRIS BUNYAN	1190	3.0%

Finally, the results from 2002

City of Costa Mesa Member, City Council

Vote For: 2

Completed Precincts: 81 of 81

	Vote Count	Percentage
Gary Monahan	10,739	31.0%
Allan R. Mansoor	7,617	22.0%
Linda Dixon	7,092	20.5%
Katrina Foley	5,690	16.4%
William Perkins	3,520	10.2%

As you can see from the election results, Mansoor has a history of winning elections and has some good name ID in the 2nd Supervisorial District (especially in Costa Mesa). Costa Mesa has the third-most voters of any city in the 2nd Supervisorial District, behind Newport Beach and Huntington Beach.

However, Mansoor has had abysmal fundraising numbers as of the last report (less than $62,000 cash-on-hand) and has not run a very impressive campaign. According to our blogger, Marion Morrison, Mansoor went negative in his very first piece of mail in this race. It is a basic rule in campaigning that you have to go positive at least twice before you can go negative. Also, Mansoor has some of the worst campaign signs that I have ever seen with his name appearing in very small letters on the sign. I have not heard of him appearing on any slates at this point. His campaign appears to be focused mostly on going to lots of events.

I will give him a break on his performance at the Feet to the Fire candidate forum, since the debate is an absolute circus (if I was prepping a client for this debate, it would include people with vuvuzelas and other noisemakers to try and create as many distractions as possible).

All of this, combined with a late start to the campaign, in my book, make it a large uphill battle for Mansoor.

Joe Carchio

Joe Carchio might be the most interesting of the candidates running for this seat who are not named Michelle Steel. Carchio is currently a Councilmember from Huntington Beach, which is the largest city in the 2nd Supervisorial District. Prior to his time on the council, he owned the popular restaurant, “Jersey Joe’s” in Huntington Beach.

Carchio has been a consistent winner in both elections that he participated in for Huntington Beach City Council. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.

Results from 2010 (General Election):

CITY OF HUNTINGTON BEACH Member, City Council

Number To Vote For: 4

Completed Precincts: 152 of 152

	Vote Count	Percentage
CONNIE BOARDMAN	20,019	9.4%
* JOE CARCHIO	18,523	8.7%
MATTHEW HARPER	15,886	7.5%
JOE SHAW	14,585	6.9%
BARBARA DELGLEIZE	14,171	6.7%
BLAIR FARLEY	13,932	6.5%
BILLY O’CONNELL	13,175	6.2%
JIM KATAPODIS	13,100	6.2%
FRED J. SPEAKER	11,183	5.3%
DAN KALMICK	10,775	5.1%
NORM WESTWELL	10,187	4.8%
BILL RORICK	9,835	4.6%
HEATHER GROW	9,624	4.5%
SHAWN ROSELIUS	7,628	3.6%
ERIK PETERSON	7,137	3.4%
BRUCE J. BRANDT	7,125	3.3%
LANDON FICHTNER	4,654	2.2%
ANDRISSA DOMINGUEZ	4,440	2.1%
WILLIAM GRUNWALD	3,652	1.7%
JOHN VON HOLLE	3,209	1.5%
BLAKE ROSE (W)	50	0.0%

Results from 2006 (General Election):

CITY OF HUNTINGTON BEACH Member, City Council

Number To Vote For: 4

Completed Precincts: 155 of 155

	Vote Count	Percentage
CATHY GREEN	31172	18.6%
JILL HARDY	28582	17.0%
GIL COERPER	24895	14.8%
JOE “JERSEY JOE” CARCHIO	24573	14.6%
FLORENCE “FLOSSIE” HORGAN	23709	14.1%
JOE SHAW	20632	12.3%
NORM “FIRECRACKER” WESTWELL	14282	8.5%

Carchio finished a great deal stronger in 2010 than he did in 2006 as evidenced by the above results. With Huntington Beach being the largest city in the district, it will make for a very interesting election night depending on voter turnout, considering Carchio does have a strong base of support in Huntington Beach.

Impressively, Carchio has the second-highest amount money, as of the last campaign finance report (over $67,000 cash on hand) but has not spent it on anything tangible from what I have seen. I have not heard about any direct mail, slate mail, signs, or large amount of precinct walking.

At one point during the Feet to the Fire candidate debate, I could have sworn that Carchio was ignored for 30 minutes straight, without saying a word. If he starts to spend his money on voter contact, it will make things very interesting.

I believe that Carchio will be extremely close to Mansoor on election night.

Michelle Steel

Calling Michelle Steel the front-runner would be an understatement. Steel, who is currently on the State Board of Equalization, leads in about every category that I have seen and has run an extremely efficient and well-organized campaign.

Steel has been elected twice to the California State Board of Equalization. Let’s take a brief look at her electoral history.

Results from 2010 (Republican Primary):

Member, State Board of Equalization 3rd District – Republican

Completed Precincts: 2084 of 2084

	Vote Count	Percentage
* MICHELLE STEEL (REP)	167,669	70.3%
VIC BAKER (REP)	70,852	29.7%

Results from 2006 (Republican Primary):

Member, State Board of Equalization 3rd District – Republican

Completed Precincts: 2076 of 2076

	Vote Count	Percentage
MICHELLE STEEL (REP)	77757	41.4%
RAY HAYNES (REP)	59023	31.4%
STEVE PETRUZZO (REP)	27788	14.8%
HAL “JIMBO” STYLES (REP)	12155	6.5%
LEWIS A. DA SILVA (REP)	11040	5.9%

It is first and foremost, important to note that Steel has appeared on the ballot twice to the entire 2nd Supervisorial District (and all of Orange County for that matter) thanks to complete overlap by her State Board of Equalization seat. Steel was impressive with both her margin of victory in 2010 as an incumbent and her victory over well-known Assemblyman Ray Haynes in 2006.

Steel has an impressive fundraising lead over all of her opponents combined (over $500,000 cash on hand) and has dominated the campaign when it comes to voter contact. I have seen at least 8 mailers that have arrived from her campaign, and it is clear that she is trying to end this thing in June by breaking 50% in the primary. She has also dominated slate mail, signs, endorsements, and precinct walking. Most impressively, she received the endorsement of the OC Register, which should move the needle a few points on election night.

Based on my opinion of the Feet to the Fire candidate debate, I would say Steel has a great knowledge of the issues that exist at the County of Orange, and she came across very well to voters. I was actually quite impressed with her accuracy when I fact-checked some of the numbers that she threw out to the audience at the candidate debate.

Prediction Time

Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict the winner will be

Michelle Steel (in June) – I think she is going to clear 50% of the vote.

We’re live from the Feet to the Fire Forum for the Second Supervisorial District. Yours truly got promoted to the media table.

The candidates are seated in this order from left to right: Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel, Coast Community College District Trustee Jim Moreno, Assemblyman Allan Mansoor, and Huntington Beach Councilman Joe Carchio. Moreno is a Democrat while the rest are Republicans.

The media panelists are Norberto Santana of the Voice of OC, Alicia Lopez of the Daily Pilot, Jack Wu of the OC Register, John Canalis of the Daily Pilot, and Barbara Venezia of the Daily Pilot/OC Register.

(7:02 PM): Canalis asks if the candidates would forego a Supervisorial pension.

Steel would forego the pension.

Moreno would donate the pension to an account to fund nonprofit organizations. He would do the same with his commission stipends.

Mansoor says he would take the pension because he is not independently wealthy and does not have a home in Rancho Palos Verdes (referencing Steel). He says he would take the lower of two pension formulas offered at the County (Editor’s Note: the voters approved a June 2012 ballot measure mandating Supervisors pick the lower pension formula.)

Carchio says he did not accept a pension in Huntington Beach and would not accept one at the County.

Canalis asks if the candidates would vote to outright ban Supervisorial pensions.

Moreno says he would not.

Wu asks Moreno about pension reform.

Moreno says pension management would need to be examined.

Venezia says all the candidates’ Web sites abstractly speak of pension reform without details.

Mansoor says he would lead by example.

Steel says unfunded liabilities are a problem and notes the County was 100% funded in 2000. She says economic growth and demographic shifts combined with rates of return must be accounted for. She speaks about the recent amortization changes at OCERS.

Mansoor says he left the Sheriff’s Department to go to the Assembly where he has no pension.

Carchio speaks of the need for employees to pay for their entire employee pension contribution.

Lopez asks Steel about her endorsement from Sheriff Hutchens. She asks about offering a raise to deputies in exchange for them paying their entire employee contribution.

Steel points to the example of OCEA. She says she wants to look at the numbers to be sure of what solution she would pursue.

Mansoor opposes the pay raise because it would increase the pension obligation.

Santana asks Mansoor about the risk of deputies being poached by neighboring agencies.

Mansoor says these are difficult times and difficult decisions need to be made to make the County solvent.

Wu asks Mansoor about leading by example by refusing the pension.

Mansoor says it would be irresponsible to ask employees to entirely give up their pensions.

Santana asks how would spending more to pay down the pension liability affect spending on other County programs and services.

Steel points to waste, fraud, and abuse. She gives an example of verifying welfare eligibility, modeling after a San Diego County program that saved $500,000. Steel says the OCERS investment returns should improve to reduce unfunded pension liability.

(Santana interjects several times demanding specifics.)

Moreno speaks about asking college employees to tell his college board about waste, and they found $10 million in waste.

Lopez asks Steel about how to fix CalOptima.

Steel says there needs to be more transparency and points to the appointment of two Supervisors at CalOptima.

Moreno says experts need to be brought in to fix the problems. He says the Board must have experts managing CalOptima.

Carchio says in Huntington Beach that they got employees to retire early, implement a 4/10 schedule, and other creativd ideas related to balance the budget after the loss of Redevelopment Agencies. (Editor’s Note: What does this have to do with CalOptima?) He says that all we heard about was RDA abuses, but RDAs did good things. He says creativity with RDAs shows how to solve these problems.

Venezia speaks about the 2012 election for Assembly. She asks about the criticism that Mansoor is leaving his Assembly seat early since he’s not termed out.

Mansoor said he supported Don Hansen and jumped in when Hansen dropped out. He criticizes Steel for moving to Orange County to run for Supervisor as a platform to run for Congress.

Venezia asks him to answer the original question.

Mansoor again points to Hansen dropping out.

Venezia and Wu ask if he will jump ship if elected Supervisor.

Mansoor starts to say that he wants a resident of Orange County to be Supervisor.

Wu interrupts to ask how long does someone need to be an Orange County resident. He points to Mansoor’s endorsement of Jim Righeimer for Costa Mesa City Council after Righeimer moved from Fountain Valley.

There’s crosstalk between Mansoor and Wu.

Steel jumps in to point out she’s lived in Orange County since 2011. She speaks about immigrating from Korea. She asks if she needs to be born here.

Carchio speaks about living in OC for 35 years and serving on numerous OC boards.

Steel asks if it’s so important to have a long-term Mansoor why he doesn’t support Carchio who’s lived in OC for decades.

Mansoor says he supported Hansen.

Lopez asks Mansoor what legislation he’s passed in Sacramento.

He points to various pending pieces of legislation.

Lopez asks if he’s accomplished something as a legislator.

Mansoor points to the challenges of being in the minority when there’s a supermajority.

Wu asks Steel about her accomplishments as a member of the Board of Equalization minority party.

Steel points to several items, including: *returning 1/2 of $267,000,000 to taxpayers
*switching late payment interest from monthly rates to daily rates, so taxpayers who are one day late only pay a day’s interest rather than a month’s interest

Steel lists several other items that this blogger can’t keep up with. She says she is a consensus builder who can get things done.

Moreno interjects that he has worked in the private sector, worked for an LA County Supervisor, served on the College Board, and been a father.

Venezia asks about Diane Harkey’s husband’s investment litigation since Steel has endorsed Harkey for Steel’s own Board of Equalization seat.

Steel says the courts already ruled that Diane Harkey was not part of this issue. She points to Harkey’s accomplishments in the Assembly.

Mansoor points to his track record in the Assembly. He says he was willing to stand up to the Mike Carona machine.

Santana asks who is part of the Carona machine now since Carona is in prison.

Mansoor says Steel is backed by a lot of people who backed Carona.

Santana repeatedly asks Mansoor to name names while Mansoor declines to do so each time.

Santana then asks what each candidate views is the role of a County Supervisor.

Moreno says the County is an arm of the state. He says the County takes care of social welfare, public health, and public safety issues. He says experts need to be running the agencies.

Santana asks for specifics.

Moreno speaks about solving constituent problems (i.e. casework).

Mansoor points to OCTA and the 405 toll lanes.

Wu and Santana ask Mansoor about other agencies.

Mansoor says they need to let him finish his answer. He speaks about public pressure forcing OCTA’s hand on the 405.

Santana asks about OCFA.

Mansoor says he would have a hands on approach.

Santana asks what that means.

Mansoor says he would audit the OCFA and points to his service on the Assembly Audit Committee.

Carchio says the OCFA board is too large and needs to be reduced in size from 25, pointing to his experience on the 35-member Vector Control Board.

Santana asks what size the OCFA Board should be.

Carchio says he doesn’t have enough information to determine an exact number.

Carchio argues he sits on more boards than Supervisors or Assembly members do.

Venezia asks how much each candidate has raised for their campaign to get their message out.

Wu says the candidates should exclude loans from their numbers.

Carchio says $75,000.

Mansoor says $100,000.

Moreno says $40,000.

Steel says $550,000.

Steel says raising money is hard work.

Mansoor speaks about issues mattering more and says he has a history of beating better funded candidates. He points to his endorsements from outgoing Supervisor John Moorlach and several district mayors.

Lopez asks Mansoor about his reputation on immigration and the Latino vote.

Mansoor says he is not anti-immigrant. He says he supports legal immigration and is the son of two immigrants. He says his actions in Costa Mesa only related to illegal immigrants who committed other crimes. He says Steel has said different things to different people, telling some that she opposes the Lincoln Club plan and telling others that she supports aspects of it. He says he supports eVerify, but Steel opposes it.

Steel says she is an immigrant. She supports a guest worker program. She supports the Lincoln Club plan. She opposes eVerify.

Wu asks Mansoor about the legislative letter he signed that got sent to members of Congress.

Mansoor says the published portion was out of context from the letter he signed.

Moreno speaks about the DREAM Act. He says these students are indistinguishable from kids born in the United States. He calls for prevailing wage in any guest worker program. He says LAX is where illegal immigrants come from. He points to the deportation of Australians.

Carchio says he went to a Sacramento press conference with Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez and his bill on human trafficking. Carchio speaks about high levels of human trafficking from China and Vietnam. He wants an equitable settlement where everyone is treated like a human being.

Venezia asks why she should vote for each of the candidates.

Steel speaks of her BOE track record and her efforts on behalf of taxpayers.

Moreno points to his experience working for an LA County Supervisor and his service on the Coast Community College Board.

Mansoor says he will stand up to special interests and political machines. He says he has an open door policy and will always listen to constituents.

Carchio points to his lengthy time as an OC resident. He speaks about his business owner experience, his experience on the City Council, and his experience on regional and state boards.

Despite starting slightly late, the forum ends right on time at 8 PM.

Chris Nguyen gave an excellent analysis yesterday of the 73rd Assembly District campaign finance reports. I figured that I wanted to contribute to the party by providing a similar analysis of the 2nd Supervisorial District. This analysis is going to show that Michelle Steel is in a commanding lead. She currently has more cash on hand than every candidate running for the 2nd Supervisorial District and 73rd Assembly District combined.

The biggest surprise from this race is Joe Carchio. It was announced by Carchio last week that he was running for the seat. I obviously don’t expect him to report any money raised for the period covering January 1st- June 30th 2013, but he hasn’t even opened a committee yet.

Michelle Steel got the early lead on this race being the first to announce her candidacy. Her fundraising totals are quite impressive with just under $450,000 (includes transfers) in actual direct contributions arriving during this reporting period. That is an impressive number for any campaign, especially a Supervisorial campaign. I must admit that I was surprised that she doesn’t appear to have a campaign website up and running yet.

It is still really early in the race and Allan Mansoor is still only exploring a run for Supervisor, but his numbers are not super impressive. $8,400 (includes transfers) raised is not going to get the job done. He might have a name ID advantage going into the race but he cannot have a repeat performance of what happened in 2012 (getting massively outspent) against Michelle Steel. If he steps up his fundraising this election I can see him putting together some impressive fundraising numbers from some local grassroots organizations. At this point though it may be too late.

Jim Moreno raised the second most at $12,785 and did not have to transfer anything over from his College Board Account. This number is not great compared to Steel but I will give him credit for raising more than Mansoor. It will be interesting to see what he raises for this campaign as I do consider him a bit of a wild card candidate to make it to the run-off.

One of the more interesting statistics that I noticed from the reports are the lack of expenditures. Generally, candidates end up spending a lot of money up front, but that is not the case in this race with Steel leading the pack on spending at a whopping $6,593. I have a feeling that spending will go dramatically up during the next reporting period for all of the candidates.

Here is the breakdown:

Candidate	Contributions	Other Income	Candidate Loans	Unpaid Bills	Expenditures	Cash on Hand (COH)	COH Minus Unpaid Bills	COH Minus Unpaid Bills & Loans
Steel	$449,939	$0	$0	$4,750	$6,593	$552,030	$547,280	$447,280
Moreno	$12,785	$0	$2,100	$0	$3,221	$10,692	$10,692	$7,471
Carchio	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Mansoor	$8,400	$0	$0	$0	$175	$8,225	$8,225	$8,225
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

Campaign finance reports for January 1-June 30, 2013 were due at 11:59 PM last night.

In order to provide the complete story, it must be noted that Michelle Steel did transfer money from her Board of Equalization account and Allan Mansoor transferred money from his Assembly account. Here is a chart to showing the breakdown of how much was raised and how much was transferred:

	Steel	Mansoor
Transfer to Supe	$198,619	$1,000
Raised for Supe	$251,040	$7,400

Ladies and gentlemen this race is very one sided as of today. Michelle Steel has over 25 times as much money as all three of the other opponents COMBINED! I admit that Allan Mansoor has a name ID advantage going into the race and he did beat Leslie Daigle in 2012 despite being massively outspent, but if he doesn’t step up these numbers his chances of getting elected are very unlikely.