OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Posts Tagged ‘Measure J’

OC GOP Endorsements So Far

Posted by Chris Nguyen on September 1, 2016

wpid-ocgop-logo-1_400x400.jpgThe Republican Party of Orange County Central Committee met on August 15 and August 31 to consider endorsements for local offices and ballot measures. Further endorsements will take place on September 19 (and possibly more after that).

OC Political live-blogged the August 15 meeting and the August 31 meeting, but by popular demand here is the list of endorsements so far:

  • City Councils and Mayors
    • Aliso Viejo City Council: Mike Munzing
    • Anaheim City Council, District 4: Lucille Kring
    • Anaheim City Council, District 5: Mark Lopez
    • Costa Mesa City Council: Allan Mansoor, Steve Mensinger, Lee Ramos
    • Dana Point City Council: Michelle Brough
    • Fountain Valley City Council: Steve Nagel
    • Fullerton City Council: Larry Bennett, Bruce Whitaker
    • Garden Grove Mayor: Steve Jones
    • Huntington Beach City Council: Patrick Brenden, Joe Carchio, Lyn Semeta
    • Irvine Mayor: Don Wagner
    • Irvine City Council: Anthony Kuo, Christina Shea
    • La Habra City Council: Tom Beamish, Dawn Holthouser, Tim Shaw
    • Laguna Hills City Council: Janine Heft
    • Laguna Niguel City Council: Laurie Davies, John Mark Jennings, Jerry Slusiewicz
    • Lake Forest City Council: Francisco Barajas, Dwight Robinson
    • Los Alamitos City Council: Dean Grose
    • Newport Beach City Council, District 5: Lee Lowrey
    • Newport Beach City Council, District 7: Will O’Neill
    • Orange City Council: Mark Murphy
    • Rancho Santa Margarita City Council: Tony Beall, Carol Gamble
    • San Clemente City Council: Dan Bane
    • Tustin City Council: Allan Bernstein, Austin Lumbard, Charles Puckett
    • Westminster City Council: Kimberly Ho
    • Yorba Linda City Council: Tara Campbell, Gene Hernandez, Craig Young
  • College Districts
    • North Orange County Community College District, Trustee Area 7: Ryan Bent
    • Rancho Santiago Community College District, Trustee Area 5: Steven Nguyen
  • School Districts
    • Capistrano Unified School District, Trustee Area 1: Wendy Shrove
    • Capistrano Unified School District, Trustee Area 2: Jim Reardon
    • Capistrano Unified School District, Trustee Area 3: Laura Ferguson
    • Capistrano Unified School District, Trustee Area 5: Jake Vollebregt
    • Santa Ana Unified School District: Angie Cano
  • Water Districts
    • Orange County Water District, Division 6: Cathy Green
    • Mesa Water District, Division 2: James R. Fisler
    • Moulton Niguel Water District, Division 6: Duane Cave
    • Yorba Linda Water District: Ric Collett, Andy Hall
    • No on the Yorba Linda Water District Recall of Directors Bob Kiley and Gary Melton
  • Ballot Measures
    • No on Measure J – Anaheim Elementary School District $318 Million Facilities Bond
    • No on Measure K – Brea-Olinda Unified School District $148 Million Facilities Bond
    • No on Measure M – Capistrano Unified School District $889 Million Facilities Bond
    • No on Measure N – Centralia Elementary School District $49 Million Facilities Bond
    • No on Measure O – Fountain Valley School District $63 Million Facilities Bond
    • No on Measure P – Garden Grove Unified School District $311 Million Facilities Bond
    • No on Measure Q – Huntington Beach City School District $159.85 Million Facilities Bond
    • No on Measure R – Ocean View School District $169 Million Facilities Bond
    • No on Measure S – Orange Unified School District $288 Million Facilities Bond
    • No on Measure T – Westminster School District $76 Million Facilities Bond
    • Yes on Measure U – Anaheim 2/3 Vote of the Council to Propose Taxes (Instead of Simple Majority)
    • No on Measure Y ­ Costa Mesa initiative to amend Municipal Code to require voter approval of certain changes in land use, retroactive to July 17, 2015
    • No on Measure HH – Fountain Valley 1% Sales Tax Increase (from 8% to 9%)
    • No on Measure JJ – La Palma 1% Sales Tax Increase (from 8% to 9%)
    • No on Measure LL – Laguna Beach 2% Hotel Tax Increase (from 10% to 12%)
    • Yes on Measure MM – Newport Beach 5/7 Vote of the Council to Propose Taxes (Instead of Simple Majority)
    • No on Measure OO – San Clemente 3% Hotel Tax Increase (from 10% to 13%)
    • No on Measure PP – Santa Ana 700% Pay Raise for City Council (from $125/mtg to $1000/mo for Council and $200/mtg to $1000/mo for Mayor)
    • Yes on Measure QQ – Stanton 1% Sales Tax Repeal (from 9% to 8%)
    • No on Measure SS – Westminster 1% Sales Tax Increase (from 8% to 9%)

Posted in Aliso Viejo, Anaheim, Anaheim City School District, Brea Olinda Unified School District, Capistrano Unified School District, Centralia School District, Costa Mesa, Dana Point, Fountain Valley, Fountain Valley School District, Fullerton, Garden Grove, Garden Grove Unified School District, Huntington Beach, Huntington Beach City School District, Irvine, La Habra, La Palma, Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, Lake Forest, Los Alamitos, Mesa Consolidated Water District, Moulton-Niguel Water District, Newport Beach, Ocean View School District, Orange, Orange County Water District, Orange Unified School District, Rancho Santa Margarita, San Clemente, Santa Ana, Santa Ana Unified School District, Stanton, Tustin, Westminster, Westminster School District, Yorba Linda, Yorba Linda Water District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Measure J Hearing Today, Potential Harbinger of What Will Come in Correa Lawsuit

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 18, 2015

north_orange_county_community_college_district_employer_logo_fullThe hearing in the North Orange County Community College District Measure J case is slated to be heard this morning.  After the initial count showed Measure J winning by a very narrow margin (34 “yes” votes need to be tossed for J to fail), Opponents of Measure J launched a recount in order to examine the provisional ballots cast in the election.  Measure J is a $574 million bond measure.

They found 42 provisional ballots that weren’t signed by the voter and “identified hundreds of signatures [on absentee and provisional ballots] that a reasonable person could not identify as similar to the signature on the voter registration card.”

With a four-year-old state law making it harder to toss ballots in a recount, very few recounts (if any) have overturned the results of an election in California.  Indeed, in Orange County, no recount since then has managed to change any winner’s vote margin.

Former Senator Lou Correa has not yet filed his lawsuit in the First Supervisorial District Special Election, but I would suspect that is because his camp is keeping a close eye on the Measure J hearing.  When not even a single vote changed in the recount, leaving Andrew Do in office as the new Supervisor, Correa switched to examining provisional ballots (i.e. the Measure J opponents’ strategy).

If the Measure J opponents prove wildly successful in tossing ballots, that’d be a good sign for Correa.  If the Measure J opponents fail to toss ballots, that’d be a bad sign for Correa.  If Measure J opponents barely prevail in that ballot tossing effort, then Correa’s camp needs to carefully scrutinize whether they have enough ballots to toss to make a difference.  Measure J opponents only need to toss 34 ballots out of 154,118 cast.  Correa needs to toss 43 ballots out of 48,339 cast (technically, 48,626 ballots were cast in the First Supervisorial District Special Election, but those 287 voters who cast blank ballots aren’t likely to matter; had a bunch of them been Correa undervotes, we would have heard about it by now).

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , | 6 Comments »

Correa Suspends Recount After 6,250 Ballots in 16 Precincts Produces No Changes, Switches to Provisional Strategy, Eyes Turn to SD-37

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 10, 2015

Supervisor's Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

One of the last times we’ll use this graphic of Supervisor Andrew Do (R-Westminster), former Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilman Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

After recounting 6,250 ballots in 16 precincts (12.85% of all ballots cast and 15.84% of all precincts) in the First Supervisorial District, no ballots changed.

Correa has opted to suspend the recount to instead focus on provisional ballots, a strategy suggested in a colorful post by Orange Juice Blogger Greg Diamond.

Diamond cited the effort to overturn the North Orange County Community College District’s Measure J in which the measure’s opponents initiated the recount but focused on gathering information about the provisional ballots in order to challenge the provisionals in court.  Their court date is Wednesday, February 18.

However, Measure J opponents have a much shorter road to victory than Correa does.

Simple math explains this: Measure J opponents need to toss 34 out of 154,118 (0.02206%) votes cast.  Correa needs to toss 43 out of 48,626 (0.08843%) votes cast.

Measure J opponents also have the advantage of a multicounty district: they can challenge ballots in the LA County portion of the North Orange County Community College District (that district really needs a name change for the sake of geographic accuracy).  Correa can only challenge ballots in Orange County.

The history books are about to be written on the First Supervisorial District Special Election.

County Supervisor First District, Short Term
Completed Precincts: 101 of 101
Vote Count Percentage
ANDREW DO 18,905 39.1%
LOU CORREA 18,862 39.0%
CHRIS PHAN 7,857 16.3%
CHUYEN VAN NGUYEN 1,879 3.9%
LUPE MORFIN-MORENO 834 1.7%
MARK I. LOPEZ (W) 2 0.0%

Yesterday, Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley sent out this unintentionally symbolic tweet, as political eyes turn away from the First Supervisorial District Special Election and toward the 37th Senate District Special Election:

It’s only 35 days until the SD-37 Special Election, and the first mailer should arrive in my mailbox any day now.

Wagner, Moorlach, and Namazi

Time to start focusing on this trio of Republicans: Business Owner/Assemblyman Donald P. Wagner, former Orange County Supervisor John M. W. Moorlach, and Naz Namazi

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 37th Senate District, North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments »

Correa Recount Highly Unlikely to Succeed, Based on Recent Cases, Do to Be Sworn in This Morning

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 3, 2015

Supervisor's Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

Supervisor’s Chief/Businessowner Andrew Do (R-Westminster), California State Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana), Councilmember/Deputy DA Chris Phan (R-Garden Grove), Television News Anchor Chuyen Van Nguyen (NPP-Garden Grove), and Office Specialist Lupe Morfin-Moreno (R-Santa Ana)

Last night, former Senator Lou Correa (D-Santa Ana) submitted an official request for a recount to the Orange County Registrar of Voters.  Judging by recent recount efforts, it is highly unlikely that Correa will be able to overturn Supervisor-Elect Andrew Do’s 43-vote lead.

  • In the 2014 general election for the North Orange County Community College District’s Measure J, measure opponents needed to flip 34 votes to block the 55% supermajority to overturn the measure.  Realizing a recount would be unlikely to prevail, the opponents went with the unique method of using the recount as an opportunity to examine the provisional ballots, then ended the recount to instead file suit in court to get the provisionals tossed.  This case is still pending.  However, since provisionals overwhelmingly favored Correa, it is unlikely he would use this method (nor would adding the uncounted provisionals help since there were just a handful of those, so it was far short of 43).
  • In the 2014 general election for Mayor of Garden Grove, then-Mayor Bruce Broadwater (D-Garden Grove) sought a recount to overturn his 15-vote re-election loss to then-School Board Member Bao Nguyen (D-Garden Grove).  Broadwater threw in the towel when the first day of the recount failed to change a single ballot despite 2,500 ballots being recounted, and Nguyen became Mayor.
  • In the 2014 primary election for State Controller, then-Assembly Speaker John Perez (D-Los Angeles) sought a recount to overturn his 481-vote loss to then-Board of Equalization Member Betty Yee (D-San Francisco). Perez gave up after one week when he only managed to change 8 votes in approximately 400 precincts.  Yee advanced to the general election against Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin and won that race to become State Controller.
  • In the 2007 special election for the First Supervisorial District (i.e. the election for this same seat eight years ago when none other than Lou Correa resigned the seat to become a State Senator), then-School Board Member Trung Nguyen (R-Garden Grove) led then-Councilwoman Janet Nguyen (R-Garden Grove) by 7 votes.  Janet Nguyen then sought a recount and netted 14 votes, thereby changing her 7-vote deficit into a 7-vote lead.  Trung Nguyen then went to court and widdled Janet Nguyen’s lead down to 3 votes.  Janet Nguyen, of course, went on to serve eight years in the seat before resigning in 2014 to become a State Senator, triggering the 2015 special election.  One important caveat in this story, state laws regarding recounts were much more generous in allowing ballots to be tossed back then, and even that was only a 14-vote (or 11-vote if you consider the judge’s rulings) switch.

Do’s 43-vote victory is simply too large a margin for Correa to overcome.  I don’t blame Correa for trying, because 43 votes out of 48,626 cast in 101 precincts is tantalizingly close, but he just won’t be able to pull it off.

Do will be sworn in as Supervisor this morning.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, California, Garden Grove, North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

Closer Look at Measure J Results, as LA County Issues Notice of Recount

Posted by Chris Nguyen on December 11, 2014

Fullerton activist Tony Bushala filed an official request for a recount on Measure J, the $574 million bond in the two-county North Orange County Community College District (NOCCCD).  As a college bond, Measure J requires 55% voter approval to pass.

The LA County Registrar of Voters posted their official notice of recount and an LA County recount costs a shocking $5,074.71-$21,158.49 per day. Orange County has a much more reasonable $600 per day.

NOCCCD has 16 precincts in LA County, where 3,947 votes were cast.  NOCCCD has 522 precincts in Orange County, where 150,171 votes were cast.

Much chatter has been on the recount starting in LA County, as LA County Registrar Dean Logan is believed to be more likely to have erroneous counts than the very competent Orange County Registrar Neal Kelley.  Indeed, the OC Registrar recount in the Garden Grove Mayor’s race was cancelled after one day because not a single ballot changed. (Dean Logan’s role in the 2004 Washington Governor’s race was particularly high profile, as the Republican Dino Rossi led for Governor of Washington in multiple recounts until Logan’s King County found a bunch of ballots for Democrat Christine Gregoire.  Logan left King County to become LA County’s Chief Deputy Registrar in 2006 and became LA County’s Registrar in 2008.)

La Habra Heights (LA County) and Yorba Linda (Orange County) are the strongholds of the “No” vote, where most voters opposed Measure J.  Orange County’s Stanton, Anaheim, Buena Park, Garden Grove, Los Alamitos, and La Habra are the strongholds of the “Yes” vote, as are the unincorporated areas of both counties; voters in these areas voted in favor of Measure J by margins exceeding 55%. OC’s Fullerton, Placentia, La Palma, Cypress, Brea, and unincorporated Rossmoor, along with LA County’s Whittier are the closer areas, where Measure J got over 50% but less than the 55% supermajority.

City/Community Yes No
La Mirada 1 100.00% 0 0.00%
Stanton 2265 65.94% 1170 34.06%
Orange 13 65.00% 7 35.00%
Anaheim 19645 60.51% 12821 39.49%
Buena Park 6942 59.06% 4813 40.94%
Garden Grove 2768 58.62% 1954 41.38%
Los Alamitos 1383 57.01% 1043 42.99%
Seal Beach 1287 55.40% 1036 44.60%
Unincorporated LA County 831 55.40% 669 44.60%
La Habra 2449 55.23% 1985 44.77%
Unincorporated OC (Excluding Rossmoor) 3698 55.11% 3012 44.89%
Fullerton 14308 54.74% 11829 45.26%
Placentia 5562 54.32% 4678 45.68%
La Palma 1819 53.63% 1573 46.37%
Cypress 5675 52.68% 5098 47.32%
Brea 4997 52.59% 4504 47.41%
Whittier 620 52.28% 566 47.72%
Rossmoor 1804 50.73% 1752 49.27%
La Habra Heights 577 45.79% 683 54.21%
Yorba Linda 8136 44.51% 10145 55.49%
TOTAL  84780 55.01% 69338 44.99%

Math should be a nonpartisan issue, so in the spirit of this, I’ll concur with Greg Diamond’s math that overturning Measure J requires tossing 34 “Yes” votes at Orange Juice Blog.

However, I understand why the OC Register states Measure J passed by 15 votes.  With 154,118 votes cast, 55% is 84,765 votes. Measure J got 15 votes more: 84,780.  That does not mean that 15 votes is how to defeat Measure J.

Somehow moving 16 votes from the Yes column to the No column would defeat Measure J.  However, that would be a tall order, as that would literally require the vote counting machines to have counted “No” votes as “Yes” votes 16 times.  That seems rather unlikely, with the increased accuracy of vote counting machines in recent years.

The more likely way to defeat Measure J in the recount would be for 34 “Yes” votes to be tossed, as Diamond’s math explains.  His math and mine agree, but here’s a table that presents it in a different method that may help those confused by Diamond’s description:

“Yes” Votes Tossed Yes No Total 55%
0 84780 55.0097976874862% 69338 44.9902023125138% 154118 84765
1 84779 55.0095057651005% 69338 44.9904942348995% 154117 84765
2 84778 55.0092138389265% 69338 44.9907861610735% 154116 84764
3 84777 55.0089219089641% 69338 44.9910780910359% 154115 84764
4 84776 55.0086299752132% 69338 44.9913700247868% 154114 84763
5 84775 55.0083380376737% 69338 44.9916619623263% 154113 84763
6 84774 55.0080460963455% 69338 44.9919539036545% 154112 84762
7 84773 55.0077541512287% 69338 44.9922458487713% 154111 84762
8 84772 55.0074622023230% 69338 44.9925377976770% 154110 84761
9 84771 55.0071702496285% 69338 44.9928297503715% 154109 84760
10 84770 55.0068782931451% 69338 44.9931217068549% 154108 84760
11 84769 55.0065863328726% 69338 44.9934136671274% 154107 84759
12 84768 55.0062943688111% 69338 44.9937056311889% 154106 84759
13 84767 55.0060024009604% 69338 44.9939975990396% 154105 84758
14 84766 55.0057104293205% 69338 44.9942895706795% 154104 84758
15 84765 55.0054184538912% 69338 44.9945815461088% 154103 84757
16 84764 55.0051264746726% 69338 44.9948735253274% 154102 84757
17 84763 55.0048344916646% 69338 44.9951655083354% 154101 84756
18 84762 55.0045425048670% 69338 44.9954574951330% 154100 84755
19 84761 55.0042505142798% 69338 44.9957494857202% 154099 84755
20 84760 55.0039585199029% 69338 44.9960414800971% 154098 84754
21 84759 55.0036665217363% 69338 44.9963334782637% 154097 84754
22 84758 55.0033745197799% 69338 44.9966254802201% 154096 84753
23 84757 55.0030825140336% 69338 44.9969174859664% 154095 84753
24 84756 55.0027905044973% 69338 44.9972094955027% 154094 84752
25 84755 55.0024984911709% 69338 44.9975015088291% 154093 84752
26 84754 55.0022064740545% 69338 44.9977935259455% 154092 84751
27 84753 55.0019144531478% 69338 44.9980855468522% 154091 84751
28 84752 55.0016224284509% 69338 44.9983775715491% 154090 84750
29 84751 55.0013303999637% 69338 44.9986696000363% 154089 84749
30 84750 55.0010383676860% 69338 44.9989616323140% 154088 84749
31 84749 55.0007463316179% 69338 44.9992536683821% 154087 84748
32 84748 55.0004542917591% 69338 44.9995457082409% 154086 84748
33 84747 55.0001622481098% 69338 44.9998377518902% 154085 84747
34 84746 54.9998702006698% 69338 45.0001297993302% 154084 84747

Posted in North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: | 11 Comments »

Measure J Bond Still Short of 55%, Contrary to OC Numbers – Everyone Forgets LA

Posted by Chris Nguyen on November 14, 2014

In the latest numbers from the Orange County Registrar of Voters, Measure J has 55.1%, appearing to break the necessary 55% for the half-billion dollar bond to pass.  Supporters rejoiced and opponents despaired.

J-North Orange County Community College District,
Fullerton/Cypress Colleges Bond Measure
Completed Precincts: 522 of 522
Vote Count Percentage
Bonds – Yes 82,060 55.1%
Bonds – No 66,968 44.9%
 

Both have responded prematurely.  Here’s why:

NO ORANGE CO COMM COLL SP MEASURE J
Los Angeles County Results Only

Measure J Votes Percent
COLLEGE IMPROVEMENT BONDS
YES 1,790 51.44
NO 1,690 48.56
Registration 11,729
Precincts Reporting* 16
Total Precincts 16
% Precincts Reporting 100

Despite being named the North Orange County Community College District, part of the district is in LA County.  Even the Orange County Register forgot.

While Orange County has given daily updates, LA County hasn’t updated since Monday.  Measure J supporters and opponents will be left waiting for LA County to find out the fate of that bond.

Here are what the numbers look like when combining Orange and LA County:

Measure J Votes Percent
Yes 83,850 54.98%
No 68,658 45.02%

With Orange County nearly done counting (if not today, certainly by Monday), LA County is going to determine the fate of Measure J.

Here’s how the district broke down.

Here are the cities where Measure J broke 55%:

City Yes No
Stanton 2247 65.88% 1164 34.12%
Orange 13 65.00% 7 35.00%
Anaheim 19593 60.48% 12802 39.52%
Buena Park 6918 59.03% 4801 40.97%
Garden Grove 2761 58.60% 1951 41.40%
Los Alamitos 1342 57.16% 1006 42.84%
Seal Beach 1262 55.72% 1003 44.28%
La Habra 4493 55.29% 3633 44.71%
 

Here are the cities and unincorporated areas where Measure J failed to break 55% (I’d note Yorba Linda outright voted against Measure J, with 55.52% against the Measure, unlike in the other areas where Measure J fell short of the 55% supermajority but still broke 50%, though Rossmoor is virtually dead even):

City/Area Yes No
Unincorporated OC (Excluding Rossmoor) 1580 54.67% 1310 45.33%
Fullerton 14059 54.60% 11692 45.40%
Placentia 5549 54.35% 4660 45.65%
La Palma 1789 53.50% 1555 46.50%
Cypress 5615 52.59% 5061 47.41%
Brea 4992 52.59% 4500 47.41%
Los Angeles County 1790 51.44% 1690 48.56%
Rossmoor 1744 50.49% 1710 49.51%
Yorba Linda 8103 44.48% 10113 55.52%

Posted in North Orange County Community College District | Tagged: | 3 Comments »