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CD-47: DeLong Raised More & Has More Cash on Hand Than All Opponents Combined; Lowenthal Second; Kuykendall Distant Third

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 18, 2012

Gary DeLong, Steve Kuykendall, and Alan Lowenthal

Councilman Gary DeLong (R-Long Beach), former U.S. Congressman Steve Kuykendall (R-Long Beach), and State Senator Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach)

In the CD-47 race, the lion’s share of the money has definitely been raised/held/spent by Councilman Gary DeLong (R-Long Beach).  DeLong raised $572,501, spent $168,209, and has $404,292 cash on hand (with only $6,000 in unpaid bills).  What’s even more stunning is that 97% of the money DeLong raised was from individuals, with only 3% coming from PACs.

State Senator Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach) raised $378,409, spent $95,119, and has $283,291 cash on hand (with $13,149 in unpaid bills).  59% of the money Lowenthal raised was from individuals, with 39% coming from PACs.

PACs only contributed to Lowenthal and DeLong but Lowenthal received almost 9 times what DeLong did in PAC money, yet the strength of DeLong’s contributions from individuals powered him well past Lowenthal.

Former Congressman Steve Kuykendall (R-Long Beach) raised $103,968 (excluding his $20,000 personal loan), spent $98,552, and has $5,416 cash on hand (excluding his $20,000 personal loan, and with $14,890 in unpaid bills).

For visual learners:

Candidate Contributions Candidate
Loans
Unpaid
Bills
Expenditures Cash on
Hand
(COH)
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
& Loans
DeLong (R) $572,501 $0 $6,000 $168,209 $404,292 $398,292 $398,292
Lowenthal (D) $378,409 $0 $13,149 $95,119 $283,291 $270,142 $270,142
Kuykendall (R) $103,968 $20,000 $14,890 $98,552 $5,416 -$9,474 -$29,474
 .

(Of the minor candidates, Republican Sanford Kahn gave his own campaign $9,350, spent $8,636, and has $713 cash on hand while Democrat Peter Mathews raised $120 [excluding a $50 contribution from himself], spent $104, and has $110 cash on hand.  Democrat Usha Shah reported no money raised and no cash on hand.  Democrat Jay Shah [Usha’s husband] and Republican Steve Foley did not report any activity.)

DeLong’s $572,501 was 54% of all money raised in the CD-47 race, and his $404,292 cash on hand is 58% of all cash on hand in the CD-47 race.  DeLong’s $168,209 in spending was 45% of all money spent so far in the CD-47 race, with 27% spent by Kuykendall, 26% spent by Lowenthal, and 2% spent by the minor candidates.

DeLong is the clearly the winner in the money race by a substantial margin, and will likely advance beyond June, setting up a November showdown between DeLong and Lowenthal.  The question for November is: how much money will the NRCC and DCCC drop on this race?

Posted in 47th Congressional District, Fundraising | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 47th Congressional District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 12, 2012

Today seems like a good day to go ahead and finish up handicapping the rest of the Congressional races. We will start with what I expect to be the most competitive race in both June and November. Sadly, no viable Orange County candidate is running for this seat, and for whatever reason political people in Orange County don’t seem to care much about this race. It is important to note when looking at the map below that even though Laura Richardson lives in this district she has opted to run in a different seat.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat will be an absolute dog fight. I expect resources from Washington D.C. on both sides to be poured in, after the primary is over.

With Laura Richardson opting to run for a different seat it leaves this one wide open. Democrats have around a 10 point registration advantage. However, Long Beach which is the largest part of this district has lower turnout than Orange County. Add in a conservative leaning DTS crowd (20.5% registration) and you get a fun race to watch.

Republican Steve Cooley did get more votes than Kamala Harris in this race and Proposition 8 did pass. The Democrats have had an advantage here though in both 200 and 2010.

The primary is already a circus with 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans all vying to make it into the top 2. Based on registration it is fairly obvious that one candidate from each party will emerge.

Candidates include:

State Senator Alan Lowenthal who will have the ability to run a strong campaign having gained experience running for legislature. He is running as a Democrat.

Peter Mathews a College Professor/Educator who is running as a Democrat.

Then comes the curious case of Dr. Jay Shah and Usha Shah who are both running for this seat. Normally it is not shocking to see people with the same last name running for an office, but these two actually live in the same house. If anybody has an explanation on this, I would love to hear what it is.

Long Beach City Councilman Gary DeLong is running, but he chose not to use his elected title as his ballot designation. He is listed as a Republican.

Former Congressman Steve Kuykendall is looking to make a return to D.C. having thrown his hat into the ring.

Steve Foley is the only Orange County candidate running for this seat, but he also made a huge mistake by putting no ballot designation down.

Sanford Kahn is the last Republican running for this seat and he is listed as a Small Business Owner on the ballot (similar to what DeLong used as a designation).

The factors at play- Alan Lowenthal is the most viable Democrat through high Name ID, more campaign experience, and best ballot designation. The Shah’s will split the vote and Mathews although a very brought guy will likely not be able to jump ahead of Lowenthal.

Of the 4 Republicans running, Foley is automatically in the category of having no shot because he did not put down a ballot designation and Kahn does not have enough Name ID to get into the top-tier.

This second slot will clearly come down to DeLong and Kuykendall. Kuykendall was in Congress, has name ID, and clearly knows how to run a race. DeLong is currently on the Long Beach City Council but he made the mistake of not putting his elected title on the ballot.

In the end I think that Kuykendall has simply been out of the game for 10 years and his name ID will be trumped by DeLong who is currently on the Long Beach City Council.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Alan Lowenthal & Gary DeLong

Posted in 47th Congressional District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

OC’s Best Ballot Designations

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 5, 2012

Ballot

Ballot designations are the only piece of information that appear directly on the ballot other than a candidate's name (and party in some - but not all - races).

Last week, I wrote about OC’s worst ballot designations. In this post, I’ll be looking at OC’s best ballot designations.

As I said last week, “The most important thing a candidate does in a campaign may well be selecting a ballot designation.  That little phrase underneath a candidate’s name are the last piece of information that voters see before casting their ballots.  In low-profile races (like Central Committee, where you can’t even get a candidate’s statement in the sample ballot), that little phrase may well be the only piece of information that voters see before casting their ballots.”

Elected officials’ ballot designations are an inherent advantage, so I’m excluding the designations of elected officials.

OC’s Ten Best Ballot Designations (for Non-Incumbents/Non-Elected Officials)

  1. Retired Navy Captain (Emily Sanford in the 74th District Republican Central Committee)
    Retired Naval Officer (Norm Dickinson in the 73rd District Republican Central Committee)
    Who could possibly vote against the military?  People have a deep respect for career military officers, as these people have served their country, have substantial leadership experience, understand complex government bodies, and are educated.
  2. Deputy Attorney General (Peggy Huang in the 55th District Republican Central Committee)
    Voters love prosecutors.  Prosecutors put criminals in prison.  Deputy District Attorneys rarely lose elections.  Deputy Attorney General is higher on the food chain, so it should be even more impressive to voters.
  3. Deputy District Attorney (Cyril Yu in the 74th District Democratic Central Committee)
    See above.
  4. Retired Police Commander (Albert Ayala in AD-72)
    Voters love law enforcement because the police catch criminals.  A retired police commander has served his community, has leadership experience, and understands dealing with government.
  5. Law Enforcement Officer (Jorge Robles in CD-38)
    As above, voters love law enforcement because they catch criminals and have served the community.
  6. Businessman/Victims Advocate (Todd Spitzer in the 3rd Supervisorial District)
    How on earth do you vote against a victims advocate?  That’d be like voting against victims.
  7. Businesswoman/Childrens Advocate (Brenda McCune in the 55th District Republican Central Committee)
    How on earth do you vote against a childrens advocate?  That’d be like voting against the children.  (Of course, we’d expect all OC Political bloggers to have great ballot designations when running for office, and she’s done just that.)
  8. Retired Constitutional Litigator (Jonathan Adler in the 74th District Democratic Central Committee)
    Voters hate most lawyers as ambulance chasers and corporate raiders.  However, there are two types of lawyers people like: the prosecutors who put criminals away and the constitutional lawyers who battle for constitutional causes and rights (note that Spitzer and McCune went with “Advocate” instead of “Lawyer” – it’s the same job but “Advocate” sounds friendlier than “Lawyer”).
  9. Emergency Physician (Bill Honigman in the 73rd District Democratic Central Committee)
    Doctors improve health.  Emergency room doctors save lives.  People vote for lifesavers.
  10. Charitable Organization President (Usha Shah in CD-47)
    Too many people who work for non-profit organizations run with “Non-Profit Organization” or “Non-Profit Group” in their ballot designation.  “Charitable Organization” brings happy thoughts that make voters feel warm and fuzzy.  “Charitable” just sounds better than “Non-Profit” even though 90% of the time they’re the same thing.

Interestingly, half of the above are lawyers.  Note that none of these lawyers used “lawyer” in their designation.  None used “Attorney” except when it had key modifiers to become “Deputy Attorney General” or “Deputy District Attorney” instead.  These candidates realize voters don’t like lawyers, but they’re smart enough to realize people like prosecutors and advocates.

Lessons from the group above:

  • Non-prosecutor lawyers should generally run as advocates.
  • People like the military, law enforcement, and doctors.
  • When possible, “Charitable” should be used instead of “Non-Profit” to attract voters.

Best Pair of Ballot Designations in a Two-Person Race: 3rd Supervisorial District

  • Businessman/Victims Advocate (Todd Spitzer)
  • Councilwoman, City of Villa Park (Deborah Pauly)

Spitzer’s designation was #6 on my list of the ten best ballot designations in OC.  Pauly’s designation was ineligible to be on the list due to my “elected officials’ ballot designations are an inherent advantage” rule.  Therefore, this race inherently has the best pair of ballot designations in any two-person race.

Best Set of Ballot Designations in One Race Featuring 3+ Candidates: AD-72

  • Small Business Owner (Travis Allen – Republican)
  • Retired Police Commander (Albert Ayala – Democrat)
  • City Commissioner/Businessman (Joe Dovinh – Democrat)
  • Member, Orange County Board of Education (Long Pham – Republican)
  • Businessman/Mayor (Troy Edgar – Republican)

I noted last week that the five candidates in CD-46 has the worst set of ballot designations in any one race.  Well, another set of five candidates, this time in AD-72, has the best set of ballot designations in any one race with three or more candidates.

Every single one of these candidates maximized their occupations and political positions in their descriptions of themselves.

  • Allen runs a wealth management firm.  “Wealth Management Businessowner” could be offputting to some voters.  He wisely (and accurately) chose to describe himself as a “Small Business Owner” because his wealth management firm is a small business, and he does own it.  Plus people on both sides of the aisle respect people who own small businesses; indeed, the majority of Americans work for small businesses.
  • Ayala’s “Retired Police Commander” came in at #4 on my list of best ballot designations.  When the most hopeless candidate makes the best ballot designations list, you know you’ve got a fun race.
  • Dovinh’s “City Commissioner/Businessman” maximizes his appointed political role and takes advantage of his job as a general contractor.  The “City Commissioner” part wisely leaves off a specific city making it possible he could be a city commissioner in any of the cities in AD-72: Huntington Beach, Fountain Valley, Seal Beach, Westminster, Garden Grove, Los Alamitos, or Santa Ana.  (He’s a Garden Grove Planning Commissioner for the record.)  Additionally, there are cities out there (though not in California) that call their city elected officials commissioners instead of councilmembers.  For voters looking for candidates with private sector experience, Dovinh’s “Businessman” designation appeals to them.
  • Pham’s “Member, Orange County Board of Education” takes advantage of my “elected officials’ ballot designations are an inherent advantage” rule.  Not only that, he takes advantage of the Elections Code regulation that allows sitting elected officials to exceed three words in a ballot designation if they use their elected title as their sole ballot designation (this counts as a five-word designation; remember, “Orange County” is legally one word for purposes of the Elections Code).  Further, Pham is one of a small group of elected officials whose elected position includes “Orange County” in the title.  Since the entirety of AD-72 is in Orange County, his title sounds like he could represent all the people of AD-72 (for the record, he represents Fountain Valley, Garden Grove, Santa Ana, and Tustin).
  • Edgar’s “Businessman/Mayor” takes advantage of his status owning two businesses and the fact that he is currently Mayor of Los Alamitos.  Edgar is the only candidate in AD-72 who didn’t maximize the word limit, and he also failed to use the stronger “Businessowner” over “Businessman” in his designation: I would have tweaked this to be “Orange County Businessowner/Mayor” or “Small Businessowner/Mayor” though this is still a strong ballot designation.  Everything I said about Dovinh’s ballot designation applies to Edgar, with the added advantage that the mayor is leader of a city while a commissioner is just one of several officials.  Edgar’s not a directly-elected mayor; he’s mayor in one of those cities (specifically, Los Alamitos) where mayor is rotated on an annual basis among the councilmembers.  However, for ballot designation purposes, it doesn’t matter if you’re directly-elected or rotated into the position, as long as you’re the mayor when you’re running.

So last week, I wrote about OC’s worst ballot designations. In this post, these are Orange County’s best ballot designations.

Posted in 38th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 47th Congressional District, 72nd Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

OC CRA Endorsing Convention Recap

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 24, 2012

For those of you who don’t want to wade through my live play-by-play of the OC CRA endorsing convention, here’s a list of all the endorsements from this morning.

(By the way, the play-by-plays with the most fireworks were in the Spitzer-Pauly race for the 3rd Supervisorial District and the Edgar-Pham battle for the endorsement in the 72nd Assembly District.)

Congressional Endorsements:

  • CD-38: LA County CRAs will sponsor that endorsing convention
  • CD-39: Congressman Ed Royce by voice vote
  • CD-45: No endorsement (effectively, a 50/50 split occurred, as Congressman John Campbell blocked businessman John Webb’s  endorsement without being present)
  • CD-46: Businessman Jerry Hayden won 11 of the 12 votes cast in the first round.
  • CD-47: No endorsement actually got more votes than any candidate.
  • CD-48: Congressman Dana Rohrabacher by voice vote
  • CD-49: Congressman Darrell Issa by voice vote
State Senate Endorsements
  • SD-29: Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff endorsed by voice vote
  • SD-37: Senator Mimi Walters endorsed by voice vote

State Assembly Endorsements

  • AD-55: Assemblyman Curt Hagman endorsed by voice vote
  • AD-65: Assemblyman Chris Norby endorsed by voice vote
  • AD-68: Assemblyman Don Wagner endorsed by voice vote
  • Ad-69: No endorsement
  • AD-72: Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar captured the endorsement in the second round over Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham, who actually led in the first round of balloting
  • AD-73: Assemblywoman Diane Harkey endorsed by voice vote
  • AD-74: Allan Mansoor endorsed by voice vote

Supervisorial Endorsements

  • 1st Supervisorial District: Supervisor Janet Nguyen endorsed by voice vote (of course, her sole opponent is convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco, who is registered as no party preference)
  • 3rd Supervisorial District: Todd Spitzer endorsed in second round over Deborah Pauly after a fairly spirited discussion

Orange County Board of Education Endorsements

  • Area 1: Robert Hammond endorsed by voice vote
  • Area 3: OCBE Trustee Ken Williams endorsed by voice vote

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working for Assemblyman Chris Norby. Also, OCBE candidate Robert Hammond and OCBE Trustee Ken Williams are clients of Custom Campaigns. Norby, Hammond, and Williams were all endorsed by voice vote.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Live from the OC CRA Convention…

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 24, 2012

We’ll be live-blogging (for updates, refresh this post) from the OC CRA endorsing convention at the Turtle Rock Community Center in Irvine…

Format will be 3 minutes from the candidate and 3 minutes of Q&A for each race.

Mike Munzing (South OC) and Baron Night (Buena Park) appointed sergeants-at-arms. Host Jeff Lalloway (Greater Irvine) appointed parliamentarian.

Races will be voted in the order of Federal, State, and County, with slight adjustments allowed to accommodate candidate schedules.

Republican incumbents with no Republican opponent will be done by voice vote. All other races will be done by secret ballot.

Endorsements require a 2/3 vote.

In a three-candidate race, the candidate with the least votes is dropped in the first round. The remaining two candidates will contest the second and third rounds. In a two-candidate race, both candidates remain for all three rounds.

No race will go beyond three rounds, unless there are five or more Republican candidates (there are no races that have five or more candidates being considered today).

79 of an eligible 114 delegates are present representing 19 units.

First race up: AD-74
Assemblyman Allan Mansoor is here; Leslie Daigle is not. Both were invited.

Mansoor ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: CD-47
Steve Kuykendall is here; Gary DeLong is not. Both were invited. No one discussed the two minor Republican candidates.

In response to a Baron Night question, Kuykendall said he would have opposed TARP.

In response to a shouted question from a member of a CRA unit that is not eligible to vote in CD-47, Kuykendall said he is pro-choice.

Secret ballot will be used in CD-47. Westminster, Garden Grove, Stanton, and Buena Park RAs are voting.

No one reached 2/3 in round one: 5 Kuykendall, 3 DeLong, 7 no endorsement, and 1 other.

No one reached 2/3 in round two: exact totals not announced.

No one reached 2/3 in round three: exact totals not announced.

NO ENDORSEMENT in CD-47.

Next up: OCBE 3
Incumbent Ken Williams is here.

Williams is ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up will be the first real fireworks: 3rd Supervisorial District

Todd Spitzer will speak first; Deborah Pauly elected to speak second.

Spitzer points to his legislative record, his ability to not insult or divide people, his longtime status as a member of his CRA unit in Orange-Villa Park, his vast Republican endorsement list; his HJTA record; he says of his 3% at 50 vote: “That vote was a mistake.”

In response to a question from Ray Grangoff, Spitzer opposes pension spiking and says local employees should be forced to pay the employee contribution to the pension. (State public employees pay the employee contribution while taxpayers pay the employer contribution. Taxpayers pay both the employer and employee contribution for local public employees.)

In response to a question by Chris Emami, Spitzer opposes the Moorlach term limit extension.

Pauly speaks of her role in creating the Orange-Villa Park CRA unit. She speaks of her role in Prop 8. She speaks of good and evil. She has visited many CRA units. She says she is the true conservative.

In response to a question by Chris Emami, Pauly opposes the Moorlach term limit extension and notes her opposition to the Villa Park term limit extension.

In response to a question by Ken Williams, who expressed concerns about statesmanship, personal attacks, and offensiveness, Pauly argues only those who oppose her principles should be offended. She notes Spitzer’s 3% at 50 vote (though she doesn’t say his name).

In response to a question from Jeff Lalloway, who expressed concerns that Pauly’s Council colleagues all endorsed Spitzer, Pauly says she has “been very difficult to work with” because she opposed a 5% pay raise for city employees; she opposed spending taxes on a mural; she takes issues to the people when the council fails because “they don’t like it that they are called upon the carpet by a woman.”

Secret ballot on this one.

Irvine, Tustin, Orange-Villa Park (including yours truly), and Anaheim RAs are voting.

No endorsement in first round, as 15 votes were needed: 14 Spitzer, 6 Pauly, 2 no endorsement.

Pauly says there is no hope for conservatives if CRA doesn’t vote for her.

Spitzer says he is a pro-life Christian who is offended at being accused of not being a social conservative. He says Pauly threatened the CRA. He went over time by noting Pauly’s non-endorsement by Villa Park City Council.

Second round voting.

Spitzer ENDORSED by ballot.
18 Spitzer, 3 Pauly, and 1 no endorsement.

Next up: CD-48

Congressman Dana Rohrabacher is not present due to scheduling conflict.

Fountain Valley CRA unit member objects to Rohrabacher supporting allowing physician-assisted suicide.

Dana Rohrabacher ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: AD-55

Assemblyman Curt Hagman ENDORSED by voice vote with no discussion.

Next up: CD-46
Jorge Rocha speaks first. He talks about Loretta Sanchez’s long-term incumbency, education issues, and jobs.

Jerry Hayden speaks second. He talks about his birth in CD-46 and living in every city in CD-46. He speaks of his job as a financial advisor and his family. He speaks of jobs, energy, education, and religious freedoms. He wants to repeal the Obama healthcare plan, build the Keystone pipeline, and expand domestic oil production. He notes his endorsement by the CA Republican Party and the Family Action PAC.

Pat Garcia is the third and final speaker in CD-46. He speaks of the Huntington Beach escrow company that he and his wife own. He reads his notes about limited government and personal freedom. He loses his place at one point.

In a question from an Anaheim RA member, Garcia supports decriminalization of drug use.

In a question from a Corona Del Mar RA member, Garcia supports abolishing the Fed.

In a question from Lucille Kring of Anaheim RA, Garcia is pro-life.

Secret ballot on this one.

Santa Ana, Garden Grove, Anaheim, and Orange-Villa Park are voting.

Hayden ENDORSED with 11 of 12 ballots cast.

Next up: OCBE 1

Robert Hammond speaks of Prop 13. He’s been in education for years. He taught to Navajos and Apaches. He’s taught in public schools, private schools, and home schools. He served as a Marine. He opposes tax increases.

Hammond ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: CD-45

Challenger John Webb is here. Congressman John Campbell declined the invitation.

Webb speaks of his military and business background. He speaks of Campbell’s votes on TARP, Cash for Clunkers, Sarbanes-Oxley expansion, Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, and the STOCK Act. Webb pledges to serve only three terms.

In response to a Corona Del Mar RA delegate’s question, Webb states he is pro-life.

Secret ballot on this one.

In the first round, there’s a tie: 14 votes each for John Campbell and John Webb. There were 2 abstentions.

Webb speaks of OC being the “conservative capital” and of jobs.

In the second round (20 votes required for endorsement):
15 for John Campbell, 14 for John Webb, and 1 abstention.

Webb speaks of Campbell’s statements that he knew what the people didn’t. Webb claims there’s 4 Ed Royces becuase Royce is all over Orange County. Webb says Campbell rarely shows up.

In the final round (19 votes required for endorsement):
14 for John Webb, 13 for John Campbell, and 1 abstention.

NO ENDORSEMENT in CD-45.

Next up: CD-49
Congressman Darrell Issa is the only Republican running but is not present.

North San Diego, Saddleback, and South OC RA are eligible to vote but North San Diego is not present.

Issa is ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: CD-39
Congressman Ed Royce sent two representatives (Zonya Townsend and Steve Sarkis) due to a scheduling conflict involving constituent town halls. Royce is the sole Republican in the race.

Royce is ENDORSED by voice vote.

Royce arrives during the AD-72 voting but was already endorsed.

Royce is asked to speak anyway. He speaks of his efforts for Ronald Reagan over Gerald Ford in 1976. He speaks of Reagan’s battle against Communism. Royce credits CRA for giving Reagan his political start. He speaks of Reagan’s success in the (according to the Wall Street Journal) “Orange Countization of the United States.” He wants to keep Nancy Pelosi out of the Speakership, wants to oust Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leadership, and wants to see Marco Rubio as Vice President.

Next up (expect fireworks): AD-72

Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham is first to speak. He attacks Ed Royce for trying to whip the vote in AD-72 for Troy Edgar. Pham notes he’s a long-time member of the CRA and is the only AD-72 candidate who has never been a Democrat nor given money to Democrats. Pham also says he’s not beholden to Mike Schroeder, Scott Baugh, and Ed Royce. Pham also notes the influence of the Vietnamese vote.

Matt Harper asks about Prop 13, the no new taxes pledge, and his voting record on taxes. Pham says he has not received the pledge but will sign it. He supports keeping the 2/3 vote. He says he will vote against taxes.

In response to a question from a delegate, there was a lot of confusion over Stop Special Interest Money Now. it sounds like he supports the measure.

Troy Edgar speaks next. He notes he’s a US Navy veteran, business owner, and Mayor of Los Alamitos. He speaks of his business career. He speaks of his first political involvement in 2006 when he ran (successfully) for City Council.

Matt Harper asks about Edgar’s endorsements. Ed Royce, Dana Rohrabacher, Jim Silva, Tom Harman, 14 Assembly Members, most mayors and councilmembers (including Harper) endorsed Edgar.

In response to a Fountain Valley RA delegate question, Edgar admits he was a Democrat until 2006. He blames his Inland Empire union-member father. Edgar says he voted for Reagan and has never given money to a Democrat.

In response to a question, he states he is in favor of Stop Special Interest Money and the death penalty. He states he is pro-life.

Travis Allen did not send a representative.

Secret ballot on this one.

The vote was invalidated because 17 people voted despite there being only 16 eligible delegates.

Good catch by ballot counters John W. Briscoe and Jay Petersen.

First round vote (requires 12 votes for endorsement):
9 Pham, 7 Edgar, and 1 for Allen.

A 5-minute caucus was approved for AD-72 after the first-round vote was announced.

Edgar states he’s never given money to a Democrat and states he is a dedicated Republican.

Pham blames the “special interest” of Ed Royce for getting Edgar out of the CD-47 race and into the AD-72 race. He says, “CRA should not be a rubber stamp for a Congressman.”

Second-round vote (Allen is dropped for having the fewest votes):
12 for Edgar, 3 for Pham, and 2 abstentions.

Edgar ENDORSED after two rounds.

Next up: AD-65

I represented Chris Norby, noting his record on abolishing redevelopment agencies (applause line) and the fact that his sole opponent is a Democrat.

Norby ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: SD-29

Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff sent no representative but is the sole Republican running.

Huff ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: 1st Supervisorial District

Supervisor Janet Nguyen sent Steve Sarkis as his representative due to an all-day district event.

Nguyen ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: Judicial Race and Central Committee

Baron Night moves and Dennis Catron seconds to authorize the council of CRA unit presidents to endorse in the judicial race and the Central Committee races.

Dale Tyler made a motion to require Central Committee endorsements be made by the CRA units in regional caucuses themselves rather than the presidents’ council. Karl Heft notes Tyler’s motion violates the CRA statewide by-laws.

The Night motion passes by VOICE VOTE.

Next up: SD-37

Senator Mimi Walters thanks CRA for its support in all her previous legislative races. She notes she is one of the most conservative State Senators in the state. She says she was “drawn out of my district,” and “I live, or rather, lived, in Laguna Niguel, and I now live in Irvine.” She fought to successfully qualify the referendum to overturn the Senate districts.

Walters ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: AD-68

Assemblyman Don Wagner notes that the pundits thought he’d lose in the 2010 primary and how they were wrong. Wagner notes he’s the sole Republican in the race and regarding his Democratic opponent: “I have pictures of her. (Pause for audience reaction.) Pictures of her with the likes of Dennis Kucinich and Maxine Waters.”

Wagner ENDORSED by voice vote.

Next up: Speech by Steven Choi

While waiting for Diane Harkey to arrive, CRA asks Irvine Councilman Steven Choi to give a speech.

Steven Choi speaks about his efforts to make Irvine a better place. He speaks of his family and his conservative record. He notes he’s the sole Republican in the race for Mayor of Irvine.

Since the election is in November and only involves one city, the Greater Irvine RA will vote later this year on endorsing Choi.

Next up: AD-73

Assemblywoman Diane Harkey speaks of spending her own money to be in DC this past week lobbying Congress against high-speed rail. She notes her voting record and endorsements from conservative organizations.

Harkey ENDORSED by voice vote.

END: With shocking efficiency, the convention ended at 1:04, just four minutes late.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 39th Congressional District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Irvine, Orange County, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

CD-47: Which Long Beach Resident Will Represent Garden Grove, Westminster, Cypress, Los Alamitos, Stanton, Buena Park, and Rossmoor?

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 22, 2012

Gary DeLong, Steve Kuykendall, and Alan Lowenthal

Councilman Gary DeLong (R-Long Beach), former Congressman Steve Kuykendall (R-Long Beach), State Senator Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach)

CD-47 is one of the LA-OC Congressional districts.  When created by the Redistricting Commission, Congresswoman Linda Richardson (D-Long Beach) resided within its borders; however, the Democrats’ voter registration advantage proved too small for Richardson’s comfort, so she’s running for CD-44 against fellow Congresswoman Janice Hahn (D-Los Angeles).  In CD-47, Democrats comprise 42.4% of registered voters, Republicans 31.7%, and No Party Preference 21.1%.  In CD-44, Democrats comprise 63.9% of registered voters, Republicans 13.2%, and No Party Preference 18.6%.

The Los Angeles County portions of CD-47 (Signal Hill, 82% of Long Beach, and 22% of Lakewood) comprise 58% of the district.  The Orange County portions of CD-47 (Cypress, Los Alamitos, Stanton, Rossmoor, 61% of Westminster, 60% of Garden Grove, and 24% of Buena Park) comprise 42% of the district.

The Republicans running for this open seat are:

The Democrats running are:

Oddly, Jay Shah and Usha Shah are married to each other.  For the sake of family peace, I really hope the Shahs’ two adult sons live outside CD-47.  I would love to have a seat at the Shahs’ next family dinner.

The three front-runners for June are definitely DeLong, Kuykendall, and Lowenthal.  They’re the ones with the name ID and the money.  Once Republicans DeLong and Kuykendall settle their battle, one of them will face off against Lowenthal, the Democrat.

At the close of 2011, DeLong led the money race with $367,486 cash on hand and $4,912 in debt.  Lowenthal was next with $169,221 and $10,172 in debt.  Kuykendall had $37,659 and $9,040 in debt.  Oddly, Mathews had $64 cash on hand and $349,511 in debt!  Usha Shah had no cash on hand and $31,920 in debt.  All other candidates had no cash on hand and no debts.

Posted in 47th Congressional District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

California Republican Party’s Endorsements for OC: Royce, Campbell, Hayden, DeLong, Rohrabacher, Issa, Huff, Walters, Hagman, Norby, Wagner, Harkey, Mansoor

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 20, 2012

The California Republican Party has endorsed in most races for Congress, the State Senate, and the State Assembly.  Emami blogged about the CRP endorsement of Elizabeth Emken for the US Senate while I indirectly linked to the list of endorsements in this post (via CapitolAlert).

However, we never really discussed the state Republican Party endorsements here on OC Political, so here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s US Congressional delegation:

  • CD-39: Congressman Ed Royce (R-Fullerton) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
  • CD-45: Congressman John Campbell (R-Irvine) was endorsed over Small Business Owner John Webb.
    While the CRP endorsed Campbell, the OCGOP did not.
    I covered the OCGOP endorsement drama in this race here, and Emami covered it here.
  • CD-47: Long Beach Councilman Gary DeLong was endorsed over former Congressman Steve Kuykendall, an OC man named Steve Foley, and Small Business Owner Sanford Kahn.
    The Democrats running for this open seat are State Senator Alan Lowenthal, College Professor Peter Mathews, and inexplicably, a married couple are both running: Dr. Jay Shah and Charity President Usha Shah.  I’d pay to go to the Shah family dinner the night before the election.  It must be awkward to be one of the Shahs’ two adult sons; hope they live outside CD-47.
    As a legitimate swing district with no incumbent, this is one of the most interesting races involving Orange County.
  • CD-48: Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
  • CD-49: Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Vista) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.

Here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s State Senate delegation (in both cases, they’re the sole Republican running; I covered both those races here):

Here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s State Assembly delegation:

  • AD-55: Assemblyman Curt Hagman (R-Chino Hills) was endorsed is the sole Republican running.
  • AD-65: Assemblyman Chris Norby (R-Fullerton) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
    Emami covered this race here.
  • AD-68: Assemblyman Don Wagner (R-Irvine) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
    I did an article on his opponent, Christina Avalos (D-Orange), here.  Emami covered her here.
  • AD-69: No endorsement was made.  OC Eligibility Technician Jose Moreno is the sole Republican running.  I sort of covered him here.
  • AD-72: No endorsement was made.
    Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar, OC Board of Education Trustee Long Pham, and Businessman Travis Allen are the three Republicans running for this open seat.
    Click here to see our various articles related to AD-72.
  • AD-73: Assemblywoman Diane Harkey (R-Dana Point) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.

For the full list of all Congressional, State Senate, and State Assembly endorsements by the California Republican Party, click here.

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working in the office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who was endorsed in AD-65.)

Posted in 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Feeling Lucky! Newest California Lottery Winners: Webb, Garcia, Varaseth, Walters, Norby, Avalos, Daly, Allen, Harkey, Daigle, Nguyen, Spitzer, Downing, Night, Dumitru, Dyrud, Nagel, Anderson, Aiken

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 16, 2012

LotteryYesterday afternoon, the newest winners of the California lottery were announced: Businessman John Webb, Businessman Pat Garcia, Businessman Ron Varaseth, Senator Mimi Walters, Assemblyman Chris Norby, Perennial candidate Christina Avalos, Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly, Businessman Travis Allen, Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, Supervisor Janet Nguyen, former Supervisor/Assemblyman Todd Spitzer, Businesswoman Karla Downing, Central Committee Member Baron Night, Orange Councilman Jon Dumitru, Central Committee Member Gwen Dyrud, Central Committee Member Steve Nagel, San Clemente Planning Commissioner Nesa Anderson, and Office Clerk Jon Aiken.

No, these 19 people are not splitting a $200,000,000 jackpot.  They won the Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery.

What’s the candidate order lottery, you ask?

Well, California law requires a lottery to determine the order of candidates on the ballot.  Why does this law exist?  Studies of the primacy effect showed the candidate at the top of the ballot gains as much as a 5% increase in votes.  Consequently, in 1975, California legislators adopted a law mandating an end to the alphabetical listing of candidates (likely to the chagrin of Sam Aanestad and Dick Ackerman but the joy of Mary Young and Ed Zschau) and requiring a lottery before each election.

The Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery has determined the alphabet for the June primary to be UNADIVXWQGOZLTRKSJHMCBFPYE.

This applies to most races on the ballot, excluding races that cross county lines (for OC, these would be CD-38, CD-39, CD-47, CD-49, SD-29, and AD-55).

The primacy effect is weaker when there are fewer candidates on the ballot, and when there are higher-profile campaigns.  Being at the top of the ballot is most valuable for low-profile campaigns with large numbers of candidates.  That means that of the 19 people I listed above, the biggest winners in this lottery are the Central Committee candidates, so the biggest congratulations goes to the following Republican Central Committee Candidates for their 5% vote bonus:

  • 55th District: Karla Downing, Small Business Owner (1st of 10 candidates)
  • 65th District: Baron Night, Incumbent (1st of 11 candidates)
  • 68th District: Jon Dumitru, City Councilman (1st of 18 candidates)
  • 69th District: Gwen A. Dyrud, Appointed Incumbent (1st of 10 candidates)
  • 72nd District: Steve A. Nagel, Incumbent (1st of 14 candidates)
  • 73rd District: Nesa Anderson, Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman (1st of a stunning 22 candidates)
  • 74th District: Jon Aiken, Office Clerk (1st of 16 candidates)

For the races that cross county lines, each county does its own lottery, so here are the OC Registrar’s lottery results: DMNESVTUHKWGXFCIQYAORZPLJB.

Congratulations to these candidates who won the Registrar’s lottery and will appear at the top of the ballot in the Orange County portions of their districts:

  • 38th Congressional District: Linda Sanchez (D), United States Representative (1st of 3)
  • 39th Congressional District: D’Marie Mulattieri (DCorrection: NPP), Community Volunteer (1st of 3)
  • 47th Congressional District: Gary DeLong (R), Local Small Businessman (1st of 8)
  • 49th Congressional District: Albin Novinec (NPP), United States Marine (1st of 4)
  • 29th Senate District: Greg Diamond (D), Workers’ Rights Attorney (1st of 2)
  • 55th Assembly District: Curt Hagman (R), Member of the State Assembly (1st of 2)

You would think that with electronic voting now, the names could be randomized for every poll voter (obviously, we’d still need the lottery for absentee voters).

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working for Assemblyman Chris Norby, one of the lottery winners, as the letter N came in second in the alphabet behind U, though no one with a last name starting with U is running in all of Orange County.)

Posted in 29th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

OC Registrar Of Voters Wrong On Filing Extensions

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on March 12, 2012

According to a release on the Orange County Registrar of voters Facebook page it appears that they have listed 4 races as entering the extended filing period.

I plan to contact them shortly as soon as the office opens up at 8:00 AM, but I do believe that they have made a mistake on this. Here is the release they posted on their Facebook page:

SANTA ANA, CA – March 10, 2012 – The Registrar of Voters announced today that the nomination period has been extended until March 14, 2012, 5:00 p.m. for the offices listed below because the incumbent failed to file Nomination Papers by the March 9, 2012 deadline.  Any qualified person, other than the incumbent, can now file the Nomination Papers until March 14, 2012, 5:00 p.m., in the office of the Registrar of Voters, 1300 South Grand Avenue, Building C, Santa Ana, California.

Business hours are: 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

For further information, call the Registrar of Voters office at 714-567-7600, hit option “0” and ask for the “Candidate and Voters Services” division.

CONTESTS THAT HAVE HAD THE CANDIDATE FILING EXTENDED:

  • United States Congress, 47th District
  • State Assembly, 69th District
  • State Assembly, 72nd District
  • Board of Education, Trustee Area 1

In the case of the 69th Assembly District Jose Solorio is termed out and cannot legally run for re-election. This should make this seat closed as of Friday at 5:00 PM according to the way that the rules are written.

The 72nd Assembly District should also be closed because of the same rule. Jim Silva who resides in this district is termed out and cannot legally run for the office. Chris Norby who on paper is the representative for the 72nd Assembly District is busy running for the 65th Assembly District, which now covers Fullerton.

Expect a follow-up post from us here at OC Political once we get an answer from Neal Kelly.

Posted in 47th Congressional District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: | 4 Comments »

Mexican Presidential Candidate Josefina Vazquez Mota Visits the OC

Posted by Walter Myers III on March 11, 2012

Mexico Presidential 2012 Candidate  Josefina-Vazquez-MotaIt was a real honor to attend a reception in Santa Ana on Saturday night for Mexican presidential candidate Josefina Vazquez Mota hosted by the Hispanic 100, which is led by local businessman and political strategist Mario Rodriguez. A number of local dignitaries and Hispanic leaders were in attendance, all looking to get a glimpse of this bold,beautiful, and accomplished lady and to hear her speak about the hopes and dreams of the Mexican people. When Josefina spoke, you could hear and feel her passion and love for Mexico. She spoke glowingly of her admiration for and special friendship with Rosario Marin, who is a member of the Hispanic 100 and also former Treasurer of the United States under President George Bush from August 2001 to June 2003. For those who don’t know Josefina, she is a Mexican economist, businesswoman, and politician who has served in the National Action Party (PAN). She has served in various capacities under the current President Felipe Calderon, including Secretary of Education. In September of 2011, Josefina left her position as Coordinator of the Parliamentary Group to pursue the Presidency of Mexico in 2012.

We have our own election for President this year, which will hopefully retire Barack Obama and usher in a new Republican president who will restore our republic to fiscal sanity, create pro-business policies, get our energy economy growing again, and end the racial divisiveness that is the hallmark of the Obama presidency. Yet the upcoming election in Mexico is also of utmost importance to Americans in terms of building a stronger, more productive relationship between the United States and Mexico. My hope is that if Josefina wins, we will work more closely as countries to combat the drug cartels, boost the Mexican economy, and work towards policies that finally solve the illegal immigration problem, such as the immigration policy proposal advanced by the Lincoln Club of Orange County. As a member of both the Hispanic 100 and Lincoln Club, having worked on the policy with committee chairwoman Teresa Hernandez and other members committed to pursuing a real solution, I believe we have begun a new conversation on the illegal immigration problem that does not include citizenship for illegal immigrants.

As a matter of history, I lived in Mexico for a couple of years back in the early 1990s before moving to the OC, and I have a deep love for the Mexican people. That is why it tears my heart out that some Americans have such animus towards those who come here only to make a better life for themselves and their families. We had a wonderfully functioning guest worker program (The Bracero Program) from 1942 to 1964 that gave skilled field workers the opportunity to work in America. We did not have a serious illegal immigration problem until the program was killed because big agribusiness wanted illegal workers and convinced the federal government to look the other way while they exploited illegal labor from Mexico and other countries south of our border. This is a huge injustice, and I will not rest until illegal immigrants are no longer living in the shadows of America, exploited for their labor. This is the humanitarian issue of our generation. Yet you have spineless politicians that provide public benefits to illegal immigrants in the hopes they will eventually get citizenship and vote for them, not caring that as long as these people continue to live in the shadows, they are vulnerable to crime and exploitation. Additionally, they work for wages  that native-born Americans cannot compete with. It is a racket that has been going on for 48 years where everyone loses except for pandering politicians and exploitative business owners. It is time for this to come to an end, and I invite all conservatives to join us in bringing this about.

Posted in 47th Congressional District, 69th Assembly District, Santa Ana | Tagged: , , , , , , | 8 Comments »