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Posts Tagged ‘Michele Martinez’

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Carpetbagger Running In AD 69?

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on March 22, 2012

UPDATED 1:17 PM: According to an article in the Voice of OC the OC Register article is flat-out wrong. You can read that article here.

It was reported yesterday in the Orange County Register that we might have another case of a carpetbagger running for office. Allegedly Julio Perez does not live where he claims according to a process-server. I will not post the address due to privacy issues, but it does not look good for Perez. Although, I do not believe that carpetbagging actually lands him off the ballot as judges are rarely willing to rule this way.

Where this will likely hurt him is in a mail piece that will likely go out from the Tom Daly or Michele Martinez campaign. This could end up costing him a spot in the top two for this election, which he had an outside shot at due to all kinds of union money that would have been spent on this race.

The two likely candidates to emerge from the June primary are Jose Moreno (R) and Tom Daly (D).

Moreno will advance because he is the only Republican in this race in with the Democrats splitting the vote four ways he will get into the top two, possibly in the #1 slot. Now that he is in the race I hope that he can win, as it would be nice to see a Republican win this seat, but the odds are definitely against him.

Daly will advance because of the Latino vote being split amongst the three other Democrats and also the fact that he has huge name ID from his time on the Anaheim City Council and also the many years he has been Orange County Clerk-Recorder.

I guess the good news for all of the candidates running is that none of them used Kindee Durkee as a treasurer.

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 11 Comments »

OC Republicans Shoot Selves in Foot; OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario Evaporates

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 16, 2012

In a pre-Prop 14 world, it made absolute good sense to contest every single partisan race.  Each qualified party was guaranteed exactly one candidate on the November ballot.

Prop 14 changed all that.  The top two candidates, regardless of party and regardless of whether anyone breaks 50%, advance to the November ballot.  If the top two candidates were members of the same party, presumably the more moderate candidate would win.  If there were two Democrats, the less liberal one would win thanks to Republican voters.  If there were two Republicans, the less conservative one would win thanks to Democratic voters.  Furthermore, the party with two candidates facing off in November would then spend a fortune in an intraparty battle, freeing the excluded party to spend its human and financial resources elsewhere.

In Orange County:

  • Republicans feared a November bloodbath in AD-74 between Allan Mansoor and Leslie Daigle, in which the less conservative candidate would win.  In AD-74, Republicans comprise 42.5% of registered voters, Democrats 29.0%, and no party preference voters 23.7%.
  • Democrats feard a November bloodbath in AD-69 between Tom Daly, Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, and Paco Barragan, in which the least liberal candidate would win.  In AD-69, Democrats comprise 49.7% of registered voters, Republicans 27.5%, and no party preference voters 19.1%.

Conventional wisdom held:

  • If no Democrat filed in AD-74, Democratic voters would back Republican Leslie Daigle over Republican Allan Mansoor in both June and November, as Daigle is less conservative than Mansoor.  Republicans would squander valuable human and financial resources in an intraparty battle for AD-74, freeing Democrats to spend their resources elsewhere.  However, if a Democrat were in the AD-74 race, presumably that person would be in the top two to face off against the winner of the Mansoor-Daigle fight.
  • If no Republican filed in AD-69, Republican voters would back Democrat Tom Daly over the other three Democrats (Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, and Paco Barragan) in June, as Daly is the least liberal of the four; the Republican voters would continue to back Daly over whichever Democrat he faced in November, as Daly would still be the less liberal candidate.  Democrats would squander valuable human and financial resources in an intraparty battle for AD-69, freeing Republicans to spend their resources elsewhere.  However, if a Republican were in the AD-69 race, presumably that person would be in the top two to face off against the winner of the Daly-Martinez-Perez-Barragan fight.

For about half a week, many in OC, including yours truly, thought the Democrats’ worst nightmare had materialized: a Democrat in AD-74 and no Republican in AD-69, as Robert Rush joined the Democratic Party and entered the AD-74 race while Republican Robert Hammond withdrew from AD-69 to join the Orange County Board of Education race.

Well both party’s fears came to naught and we revert to status quo in November with likely one Democrat versus one Republican.  As my intrepid fellow blog editor Chris Emami wrote, an obscure gentleman by the name of Jose Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose Moreno) filed as the sole Republican in AD-69 with barely two minutes to spare.

Robert Rush (D-74) and Jose Moreno (R-69) could spend the next three months in Siberia, and both will still be in the top two in their June races by virtue of having “Democrat” and “Republican” after their names, respectively, allowing them to advance to November, where they will be summarily destroyed by their opponent.

(In case you’re wondering, Rush has a ballot designation of “Business Owner/Accountant” and will be second on the ballot after Daigle but before Mansoor while Moreno has a ballot designation of “Orange County Eligibility Technician” and will be third on the ballot after Daly and Martinez but before Barragan and Perez.  Many voters will be left scratching their heads as to what an eligibility technician is, and if you’re one of them, here’s an explanation of what that is.)

Democrats won’t squander their resources on an intraparty AD-69 battle in November nor will Republicans squander their resources on an intraparty AD-74 battle in November.  Both parties will revert to the old rules of spending their resources against each other in November.

Former Senate Republican Leader Jim Brulte once said in reference to a San Francisco Mayoral race: “When you’re a conservative, and you’ve got a choice between a socialist and a communist, you back the socialist.”  Democrat Robert Rush has enabled the most conservative candidate to win in AD-74, and Republican Jose Moreno just enabled the most liberal candidate to win in AD-69.

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments »

Secretary of State’s Incorrect Filing Extension Can Only Be Reversed by Court Order

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 13, 2012

The Secretary of State is to blame for the incorrect filing extension.
While Emami was chasing his tail trying to get an explanation from the Orange County Registrar of Voters for why AD-69 and AD-72 had candidate filing extended (as he described in this grammatically-flawed post incorrectly blaming the Registrar), I went to the source of the people actually responsible for the filing extension: the Secretary of State.  They were the ones who instructed the county registrars to extend filing on various races.  The Secretary of State had sent this memo to the county registrars (h/t to Capitol Alert for that memo, which was oddly placed inside a post about Elizabeth Emken getting the CRP endorsement).

After contacting friends in Sacramento, they inform me that once the filing period extension has been announced, the Secretary of State cannot reverse the decision, as only a judge with a court order can shut down filing.  Only a candidate who has already completed filing has standing to launch the lawsuit necessary to get the court order (in other words only Tom Daly, Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, or Paco Barragan can sue to end the AD-69 filing extension, and only Troy Edgar, Long Pham, Travis Allen, Joe Dovinh, or Albert Ayala can sue to end the AD-72 filing extension).  If they launched the lawsuit, they’d also have to show that they were harmed by the filing extension (i.e. another candidate filed, but no new person has pulled papers in either AD-69 or AD-72 as of this morning).

Even if a candidate launched the suit, they’d have to be willing to suffer the negative press and the hits from their opponents accusing them of “anti-democratic” action by trying to prevent people from joining the race.

Then in the lawsuit itself, the candidate would then face off against bureaucrats in the Secretary of State’s office who would show some bizarrely liberal interpretation of law justifying the extension.  Then, the plaintiff candidate would have to convince the judge that there was enough damage done to themselves and the electoral process from having additional candidates that warranted an injunction (99% chance the judge would not issue an injunction to reduce the number of candidates).

The Orange County Registrar of Voters also sent this out to their e-mail list yesterday:

Explanation for Contest Extensions

March 12, 2012 – Statewide 53 Congressional, Senate and Assembly contests were extended by the Secretary of State to March 14th at 5:00 p.m.  This takes place in races “for which no eligible incumbent is seeking reelection”. The key is eligible – according to the Secretary of State they have determined that some districts that appear to lack an incumbent have eligible candidates (who currently hold office) that could have moved into the district, causing an incumbency.  Redistricting has contributed to this and In Orange County there are two Assembly Districts (69th and 72nd) that fall into this category.

So it seems that the Secretary of State’s office was encouraging carpetbagging.

  • Despite Jose Solorio being termed out and the vast majority of AD-69 being his district, the justification for extending AD-69 is because tiny pieces of Anaheim and Orange from Chris Norby’s old district were included in the new AD-69, candidate filing was extended since Chris Norby chose to run for his hometown’s AD-65 instead of carpetbagging into AD-69.
  • Despite Jim Silva being termed out and the only sitting Assembly Member in the boundaries of AD-72, the justification for extending AD-72 is because is because portions of Allan Mansoor’s old district were included in the new AD-72, candidate filing was extended since Allan Mansoor chose to run for his hometown’s AD-74 instead of carpetbagging into AD-72.

Wow.  Sometimes the Secretary of State can make even the most cynical people more cynical.

(In the interest of full disclosure, I do work in the office of Assemblyman Chris Norby for my day job.  However, I would oppose him carpetbagging into AD-69 even if I did not work for him.)

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Filing Recap: OC Dems’ Worst-Case Scenario Thanks to OCGOP Coups; AD-72 in Disarray; Spitzer, Pauly, & Rocco; Fullerton Recall Lineup Set; State Senate Races

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 12, 2012

Whole Lot of Candidates

Robert Hammond, Tom Daly, Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, Paco Barragan, Long Pham, Troy Edgar, Travis Allen, Joe Dovinh, Allan Mansoor, Leslie Daigle, Robert Rush, Albert Ayala, Todd Spitzer, Deborah Pauly, Janet Nguyen, and Steve Rocco. Not pictured for space considerations: Matt Harper, Tyler Diep, Bob Huff, Greg Diamond, Mimi Walters, Steve Young, and the 13 Fullerton Recall Candidates

Friday was such a busy candidate filing day that we still haven’t finished all our coverage of candidate filing action here on OC Political, but for those of you who weren’t reading over the weekend, here’s a quick rundown/annotated table of contents of what we’ve covered so far:

The big news that dominated our coverage was the AD-69/AD-72/OCBE chaos:

  • OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario Comes True: Coups Benefit Republicans in AD-69 & AD-74
    Republicans had long feared an all-Republican battle between Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, which would eat up Republican human and financial resources in both June and November.  There were further fears that Democrats would cast their votes for Daigle to oust the more conservative Mansoor.  These fears proved unfounded when Democrat Robert Rush qualified for the ballot.
    However, the scenario Republicans feared in AD-74 became the scenario Democrats face in AD-69.  Republican Robert Hammond pulled out of the AD-69 race, leaving four Democrats to face only each other in a bloody intra-party battle in June.  Then the top two of those four will face each other again in a bloody intra-party battle in November.  AD-69 will eat up Democratic human and financial resources in November when they could have been spending their time, energy, and money battling Republicans.
    (Prop 14 made this possible by eliminating traditional primaries, and requiring the top two candidates from the June primary to advance to the November general election, even if they’re from the same party, even if someone broke 50% in June, and even if there were only two candidates in June.)
  • Hammond Enters OCBE Race & Withdraws from AD-69, Producing OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario
    Republican Robert Hammond withdrew from the AD-69 race to enter the race for Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 1.  It was Hammond’s withdrawal from AD-69 that left Democrats in a bloody intra-party war in November, locking up Democratic resources to attack Democrats instead of Republicans.  OCBE 1 is held by conservative Republican Long Pham, who made all this possible by vacating his seat to run for AD-72.
  • AD-72: Five Candidates (Two Democrats, Three Republicans) Running
    The Republicans in the AD-72 race are OCBE Trustee Long Pham, Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar, and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.  The Democrats are Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh and 89-year-old Tea Party Democrat Albert Ayala.
  • Matt Harper opts out of 72 AD race
    Not among the candidates was Huntington Beach Councilman Matt Harper who announced his withdrawal on the final day of filing.  Just five weeks ago, the Republican line-up in AD-72 was expected to be Harper, Long Pham, and Westminster Councilman Tyler Diep.  Now Harper and Diep are out, replaced by Troy Edgar and Travis Allen.
  • Bizarre Travis Allen Strategy in AD-72: Alienate Non-Huntington Beach Voters and Declare Los Alamitos to Be “Foreign”
    With Matt Harper out and Travis Allen jumping in the race in the final days of filing, Allen certainly made a splash, with a pair of bizarre press releases that attacked Harper for endorsing “Foreign Candidate” Troy Edgar.

After all the AD-69/AD-72/OCBE chaos, how could we forget the legendary Spitzer-Pauly showdown?  And Steve Rocco!

  • Board of Supervisors: Two Crazy Races on the Docket
    The well-anticipated fiery battle for the Third Supervisorial District is proceeding as expected, with former Assemblyman/Supervisor Todd Spitzer and Villa Park Councilwoman Deborah Pauly facing off.  I don’t think Supervisor Janet Nguyen will object to being known as the boring candidate in her race, as her sole challenger is convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco.  (For the record, I am not related to Supervisor Nguyen. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Wait, there’s more!  The Fullerton Recall!

  • Battle for Fullerton: The Field is Set
    Thirteen candidates have filed for the three seats up for recall. Rick Alvarez (R), Janes Rands (G), Greg Sebourn (R), and Paula Williams (D) have filed to replace Don Bankhead.  Dorothy A. Birsic (R), Glenn P. Georgieff (D), Matthew Hakim (D), Travis Kiger (R), and Roberta Reid (NPP) have filed to replace Dick Jones.  Doug Chaffee (D), Barry Levinson (R), Sean Paden (R), and Matthew Rowe (NPP) have filed to replace Pat McKinley.

Still more…

We’re still not done with our candidate filing coverage, but at least, now, dear reader, you’re caught up.

I give South OC the award for most boring region in the 2012 Primary.  Things are much more interesting in the North OC and Central OC campaigns.  Fear not, South OC, I anticipate fun from you in the 2014 Primary to replace termed-out Supervisor Pat Bates unless Senator Mimi Walters decides to ruin it all by entering and clearing the field for herself, assuming Assemblywoman Diane Harkey continues on her path to the Board of Equalization.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Fullerton, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Los Alamitos, Orange County Board of Education, Rossmoor, Santa Ana, Seal Beach | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Hammond Enters OCBE Race & Withdraws from AD-69, Producing OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 11, 2012

Robert HammondThere are no Republicans running for AD-69, leaving OC Democrats’ worst-case scenario in place.  With no Republicans running for AD-69, Democrats will now spend their human and financial resources attacking each other in June and again in November.  Under Prop 14, the top two finishers in June advance to November.  The presumption had always been that it would be the top Democrat and Republican Robert Morris Hammond facing off in November.  With Hammond out, the Democrats now effectively have to run their expensive primary twice.

OC Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly, Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez, Union Leader Julio Perez, and Businessman Paco Barragan were supposed to sort out who would carry the Democrats’ banner against Hammond in November.  There had been much speculation that the Latino vote would split, allowing Daly to win the plurality of the Democrats to face off against Hammond, who would consolidate the entirety of the Republican vote.  However, Hammond’s withdrawal leaves two of those four Democrats to face off against each other.  Presumably, Daly still advances with the to face off against one of the Latino candidates.

The question of who wins the AD-69 election is: as the least liberal Democrat in the race, can Daly consolidate the Republican vote behind him?  If the Martinez-Perez-Barragan voters consolidate behind one candidate, they would presumably be the majority of the votes cast by Democrats.  However, if Daly can capture the Republicans, then he will win by combining the Republican vote with the portion of the Democrats’ votes he had in June.  In AD-69, Democrats make up 49.7% of registered voters, Republicans make up 27.5% of registered voters, and No Party Preference voters make up 19.1%.  By winning all the Republicans, half the NPP, and just 30% of Democrats, Daly can form a winning coalition in November.  However, if any of the others can make a play for the Republican vote, they could destabilize the Daly coalition and win themselves.  In a most unusual election, the Democrats in AD-69 may well try to position themselves as the conservative candidate in the Primary, in hopes of holding the Republican vote in November.  (We’ve already received e-mail messages this weekend at OC Political from some of the Dem AD-69 candidates touting their “non-partisan” or “bi-partisan” viewpoints.)

Bottom line for Republicans: the AD-69 race will eat up valuable human and financial resources for the Democrats in November, freeing up Republican resources to spent on other races.  Furthermore, the least liberal Democrat will likely be elected to represent the seat.

Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham is partly to thank for this event.  Pham’s bid for the 72nd Assembly District left his seat on the County Board vacant.  Republican Robert Hammond had been running for AD-69, heavily on education issues, including overturning SB 48 and enhancing career technical education programs.  Indeed, Hammond has been a teacher since he completed his service in the Marine Corps and earned his college degrees.  With the solidly conservative Pham vacating the OCBE’s Central Orange County seat, that left conservatives searching for a candidate to succeed Pham.

Conservatives quickly turned to one of the most passionate conservative education advocates in Central Orange County – Robert Hammond.  With Hammond’s deep knowledge of and passion for education issues, he is well-suited to be the conservative standard bearer for the Central OC seat on the OCBE.

Ordinarily, we’d run press releases under the “Newsletter Reprint” account, but this particular press release is central to an important piece of political news, so here is the press release from the Hammond campaign…

Robert Hammond Enters Orange County Board of Education Race

SANTA ANA, CA – At the urging of conservative activists and leaders across the county, Robert Morris Hammond has entered the race for Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 1.  The seat is being vacated by the incumbent, fellow conservative Republican Long Pham, who is now running for the 72nd Assembly District.

“Education has always been one of my great passions.  After completing my service in the United States Marine Corps and earning my college degrees, I became a teacher,” Hammond said.  “I’ve taught in special education, English Immersion classes, teacher training programs, and adult literacy courses.”

Hammond has long campaigned on education issues, emphasizing faith, family, and freedom.  He has also worked on efforts to overturn SB 48.  As an Orange County Board of Education member, Hammond will be able to fight the implementation of SB 48 in the schools overseen by the OCBE.  SB 48 and increasing career technical education had been two major issues that drove Hammond to run for office.

“It is with great reluctance that I withdraw from the 69th Assembly District race, but after Dr. Pham filed for the 72nd Assembly District on Thursday, numerous conservatives urged me to enter the race for Dr. Pham’s seat,” Hammond added.  “We were all concerned that Dr. Pham’s seat could fall into liberal hands, and with Trustee Area 1 covering much the same territory as AD-69, many concerned conservative citizens and leaders asked me to consider entering the race for the Orange County Board of Education, which I have now done.  I look forward to a vigorous campaign and victory in June.”

Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 1 covers Santa Ana, Tustin, Garden Grove (east of Beach Boulevard), and Fountain Valley (east of the 405 freeway).

(In the interest of full disclosure, Hammond is a Custom Campaigns client.)

Posted in 69th Assembly District, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , | 12 Comments »

OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario Comes True: Coups Benefit Republicans in AD-69 & AD-74

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2012

Due to Prop 14, instead of a traditional primary (where the top June Primary vote-getter from each party would advance to the November General Election), the top two candidates regardless of party would advance to November.  Before candidate filing opened, conservative Republicans feared that the 74th Assembly District would pit conservative Republican Assemblyman Allan Mansoor versus liberal Republican Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, with no Democrat in the race.  In that scenario, Daigle would grab part of the Republican vote along with nearly all the Democrats’ votes to edge out Mansoor.

Well, now, Orange County Democrats find themselves in their worse-case scenario, and Orange County Republicans are sitting pretty.

There’s a Democrat running in AD-74, and there’s no Republican in AD-69.

AD-74

The candidates in AD-74 are:

With Rush in the race, Daigle’s hopes of using Democratic votes to advance to November are dashed.  Rush will hold the Democratic vote, and Daigle will be forced to battle Mansoor in the June primary for the Republican vote.  Conservative Republican primary voters will pick Mansoor over Daigle, and the November general election will feature the Republicans’ Mansoor versus the Democrats’ Rush.  With a 13% Republican registration advantage, Mansoor will cruise to victory over Rush, instead of a costly general election between two Republicans.

(Mansoor, Daigle, and Rush have already qualified for the ballot while No Party Preference Candidate Paul Vann did not file for the seat.)

AD-69

The candidates in AD-69 are:

(Daly and Martinez have already qualified for the ballot. The Registrar is still examining the nomination paperwork submitted by Perez and Barragan. Republican Robert Hammond did not file for the seat.)

Democrats expected to settle their four-way primary battle between Daly, Martinez, Perez, and Barragan in June, with the winning Democrats likely in one of the first two positions, Republican Robert Hammond in one of the other top two positions, and the losing Democrats occupying spots 3-5.  This would then set up one Democrat versus Hammond, allowing Democrats to unify their money against Republicans in November.

However, with Hammond pulling out of the AD-69 race, that means the four Democrats will battle it out in the June primary and then the top two Democrats will battle it out again in the November general election.  Democrats will be spending their money clobbering each other in AD-69 in November in an expensive intraparty war that simultaneously costs Democrats resources they won’t be spending elsewhere in OC and California and frees up Republican resources to be spent elsewhere in OC and California.

Instead of Republicans spending money against Republicans in AD-74, it’s going to be Democrats spending money against Democrats in AD-69.

Stay tuned for an announcement from the Hammond campaign later today tomorrow…

(In the interest of full disclosure, Robert Hammond is a Custom Campaigns client.)

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Robert Hammond And Tom Daly Lead AD 69 Race

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on March 2, 2012

We here at OC Political got a hold of some polling results in the race for AD 69. It appears that Tom Daly and Robert Hammond are poling quite well in this district. Here are the results from the poll conducted by the Daly campaign:

2010 AD 69 Primary Preference
Tom Daly (D) 25%
Michele Martinez (D) 13%
Julio Perez (D) 4%
Francisco Barrigan (D) 5%
Robert Hammond (R) 25%
Undecided 28%

A survey conducted among voters in the new Assembly District 69, among those likely to participate in the June 2012 primary election, shows Orange County Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly with a significant lead over his Democratic competition.

In a simulated primary election race, Daly has a nearly 2 to 1 lead over his closest Democratic opponent. Only Robert Hammond, a Republican, has similar support. A Democrat will be favored to win the general election as the district has a nearly 2 to 1 Democratic registration advantage.

In the ballot test, Daly receives 25% of the vote, while Michele Martinez receives 13%, Julio Perez receives 4%, Francisco Barragan receives 5%, and Robert Hammond receives 25%.

Daly is the only Democratic candidate who receives notable support among all parties.

In a simulated race, Daly receives 30% of Democrats, 18% of Republicans and 30% of Independents. Martinez receives 21% of Democrats, 1% of Republicans and 17% of Independents while Perez receives 7% of Democrats, 3% of Independents and no Republican support.

And when voters hear more about the background, experience, qualifications and accomplishments of Daly, they react very positively. Daly’s initial positive sentiment of 35% moves to 80% after voters hear a short paragraph providing these basic facts.

As the campaign commences and voters begin to focus on the candidates for State Assembly, this survey shows that Daly, with his experience as the Orange County Clerk-Recorder and as former Mayor of Anaheim, is in a strong position to win this contest.

Posted in 69th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 27 Comments »

New Senate Districts Weaken Statewide GOP, Strengthens OC GOP

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 30, 2012

On Friday, the California Supreme Court ruled that this year’s elections will go with the maps created by the Citizen’s Redistricting Commission.  This bodes ill for Republicans statewide but could boost the strength of Republicans in Orange County.  Examining the great district-by-district numbers put together by Matt Rexroad, Chandra Sharma, and the rest of the Meridian Pacific team, it appears to me that there are 11 safe Republican districts, 25 safe Democrat districts, and 4 swing districts.

To maintain the status quo, Republicans have to capture all 4 swing seats: the 5th (Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus Counties), 27th (LA & Ventura Counties), 31st (Riverside County), and 34th (Orange County).  To reach a 2/3 majority to raise taxes and wreak other havoc on California, Democrats only need to capture half the swing seats.  The 27th is the only one where a sitting Senator (Democrat Fran Pavley) is seeking the seat.  The other three are wide open.

The 5th, 27th, and 31st will all be on the ballot this year.  The 34th will be on the ballot in 2014.  More than 711,000 Californians have signed the petition to put the map on the ballot this November.  Whether the voters overturn the map or retain the map will likely have little effect on these four seats until at least 2016.  Whoever wins the 5th, 27th, and 31st will be able to retain their seats through at least 2016, and any new map would likely have little effect on the 34th, as the shape of that district is heavily controlled by federal Voting Rights Act requirements. Furthermore, Correa keeps the seat until 2014.

No seat is closer than the 34th right here in Orange County.  In the new 34th Senate District, held by termed out Democrat Lou Correa, Democrats hold a 0.6% registration advantage.  (In the old 34th Senate District, where Correa beat Lynn Daucher by 1.4% in 2006 and won re-election over Lucille Kring by 31.6% in 2010, Democrats held a 12% registration advantage.)  The Meridian guys have even dubbed the new 34th district “Open Republican” on their site.

Up for election in 2014, the SD-34 Republican nominee will very likely be either Supervisor Janet Nguyen or the new 72nd District Assemblyman (Tyler Diep or Matt Harper) and the Democrats’ nominee will very likely be either outgoing Assemblyman Jose Solorio or the new 69th District Assemblymember (Paco Barragan, Tom Daly, Michele Martinez, or Julio Perez).  If the new Assemblymembers go for it, they’d have to risk their Assembly seats after just one term in order to run for the Senate.  It would be a safe run for Nguyen and Solorio, as neither of them would be up for election in 2014. (For the record, I am not related to Supervisor Nguyen; 36% of Vietnamese people have the last name Nguyen.)

After 16 years in the hands of the Democrats, SD-34 could return to Republican control, producing the first all-Republican OC delegation to the State Senate since Rob Hurtt lost to Joe Dunn.

The new SD-34 includes:

  • Santa Ana (325,000 people)
  • Garden Grove (171,000 people)
  • 48% of northern Huntington Beach (91,000 people)
  • Westminster (90,000 people)
  • 20% of Central/Eastern Anaheim (68,000 people)
  • 13% of eastern Long Beach (61,000 people)
  • Fountain Valley (55,000 people)
  • Seal Beach (24,000 people)
  • Los Alamitos (11,000 people)
  • Rossmoor (10,000 people)
  • 7% of southwestern Orange (10,000 people)
  • Midway City (8,000 people)

Posted in 34th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

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