OC Political

A right-of-center blog covering local, statewide, and national politics

Posts Tagged ‘Paul Vann’

OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario Comes True: Coups Benefit Republicans in AD-69 & AD-74

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2012

Due to Prop 14, instead of a traditional primary (where the top June Primary vote-getter from each party would advance to the November General Election), the top two candidates regardless of party would advance to November.  Before candidate filing opened, conservative Republicans feared that the 74th Assembly District would pit conservative Republican Assemblyman Allan Mansoor versus liberal Republican Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, with no Democrat in the race.  In that scenario, Daigle would grab part of the Republican vote along with nearly all the Democrats’ votes to edge out Mansoor.

Well, now, Orange County Democrats find themselves in their worse-case scenario, and Orange County Republicans are sitting pretty.

There’s a Democrat running in AD-74, and there’s no Republican in AD-69.

AD-74

The candidates in AD-74 are:

With Rush in the race, Daigle’s hopes of using Democratic votes to advance to November are dashed.  Rush will hold the Democratic vote, and Daigle will be forced to battle Mansoor in the June primary for the Republican vote.  Conservative Republican primary voters will pick Mansoor over Daigle, and the November general election will feature the Republicans’ Mansoor versus the Democrats’ Rush.  With a 13% Republican registration advantage, Mansoor will cruise to victory over Rush, instead of a costly general election between two Republicans.

(Mansoor, Daigle, and Rush have already qualified for the ballot while No Party Preference Candidate Paul Vann did not file for the seat.)

AD-69

The candidates in AD-69 are:

(Daly and Martinez have already qualified for the ballot. The Registrar is still examining the nomination paperwork submitted by Perez and Barragan. Republican Robert Hammond did not file for the seat.)

Democrats expected to settle their four-way primary battle between Daly, Martinez, Perez, and Barragan in June, with the winning Democrats likely in one of the first two positions, Republican Robert Hammond in one of the other top two positions, and the losing Democrats occupying spots 3-5.  This would then set up one Democrat versus Hammond, allowing Democrats to unify their money against Republicans in November.

However, with Hammond pulling out of the AD-69 race, that means the four Democrats will battle it out in the June primary and then the top two Democrats will battle it out again in the November general election.  Democrats will be spending their money clobbering each other in AD-69 in November in an expensive intraparty war that simultaneously costs Democrats resources they won’t be spending elsewhere in OC and California and frees up Republican resources to be spent elsewhere in OC and California.

Instead of Republicans spending money against Republicans in AD-74, it’s going to be Democrats spending money against Democrats in AD-69.

Stay tuned for an announcement from the Hammond campaign later today tomorrow…

(In the interest of full disclosure, Robert Hammond is a Custom Campaigns client.)

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

AD-74: Mansoor Raised More, Daigle Has More Cash on Hand

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 1, 2012

In the race for the new 74th District, Assemblyman Allan Mansoor raised more, but Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle has more cash on hand, according to the latest campaign finance filings.

Mansoor raised $207,247 in 2011 between his two Assembly campaign accounts (2010 and 2012).  He has not yet transferred money into his 2012 account, which I assume he will do at some point in 2012.  Of that nearly quarter-million dollars, Mansoor has $60,875 cash on hand.  The bulk of the money was spent on loan/debt repayment and payments to The Bovee Company, AimPoint, and Visteva.

Daigle transferred $23,250 from her Council account and raised an additional $111,818 in 2011 for her Assembly campaign.  She spent $15,365, most of which went to polling company Wilson Perkins Allen (formerly Wilson Research Strategies).  Interestingly, she spent $230 on Kenny the Printer, who many will recall is the favored printer of Democrat Larry Agran’s machine in Irvine.

For visual learners:

Raised Transferred Spent Cash on Hand Unpaid Bills Candidate Loans
Mansoor $207,247 $0 $117,312 $60,875 $4,060 $25,000
Daigle $111,818 $23,250 $15,365 $119,703 $0 $0

Huntington Beach Councilman Joe Carchio entered the race just two weeks ago, so no campaign finance filings will be available from him until March.

An independent by the name of Paul Vann has not yet reached the $1,000 threshold required to file a campaign committee with the Secretary of State.

No Democrats have pulled papers to run in this race.

The new AD-74 consists of Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, Newport Beach, most of Irvine, and half of Huntington Beach.  AD-74 includes about 67,000 voters from Huntington Beach, where voters elected Carchio to two terms on the City Council; the 63,000 voters from Newport Beach, where voters elected Daigle to two terms on the City Council; and the 58,000 voters of Mansoor’s hometown of Costa Mesa, where voters have elected Mansoor to office three times (two terms on the City Council and one term in the Assembly).

Posted in 74th Assembly District, Fundraising | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Allan Mansoor Endorsed by OC GOP

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on January 30, 2012

I would have loved to have posted an update on Saturday, but sadly “OC Political” did not exist yet. In what turned out to be a stunning turn of events last week Keith Carlson dropped out of the AD 74 race and endorsed Allan Mansoor. This was a classy move on the part of Keith and will spare a lot of Republican money from being wasted.

The remaining candidates for AD 74 who have announced include the Assemblyman Allan Mansoor, Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle (supposedly union backed), Huntington Beach Councilman Joe Carchio, and another gentleman, Paul Vann??? has also pulled papers for this office.

As of right now this race clearly remains a two person battle between Mansoor and Daigle both of whom are Republicans. On Saturday in a special meeting of the Central Committee Allan Mansoor received the endorsement of the OC GOP without a single vote being registered against him. Apparently Leslie Daigle was a no-show at the meeting and did not even attempt to block the endorsement.

The OC GOP endorsement is  a very big deal in this race considering that there is a thirteen point Republican registration advantage in AD 74.

I am backing Allan Mansoor in this race as he has been a solid Republican in the State Assembly. What especially sat well with me was that he stood up against RDA’s and was a solid vote to abolish them.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »