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Robert Hammond And Tom Daly Lead AD 69 Race

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on March 2, 2012

We here at OC Political got a hold of some polling results in the race for AD 69. It appears that Tom Daly and Robert Hammond are poling quite well in this district. Here are the results from the poll conducted by the Daly campaign:

2010 AD 69 Primary Preference
Tom Daly (D) 25%
Michele Martinez (D) 13%
Julio Perez (D) 4%
Francisco Barrigan (D) 5%
Robert Hammond (R) 25%
Undecided 28%

A survey conducted among voters in the new Assembly District 69, among those likely to participate in the June 2012 primary election, shows Orange County Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly with a significant lead over his Democratic competition.

In a simulated primary election race, Daly has a nearly 2 to 1 lead over his closest Democratic opponent. Only Robert Hammond, a Republican, has similar support. A Democrat will be favored to win the general election as the district has a nearly 2 to 1 Democratic registration advantage.

In the ballot test, Daly receives 25% of the vote, while Michele Martinez receives 13%, Julio Perez receives 4%, Francisco Barragan receives 5%, and Robert Hammond receives 25%.

Daly is the only Democratic candidate who receives notable support among all parties.

In a simulated race, Daly receives 30% of Democrats, 18% of Republicans and 30% of Independents. Martinez receives 21% of Democrats, 1% of Republicans and 17% of Independents while Perez receives 7% of Democrats, 3% of Independents and no Republican support.

And when voters hear more about the background, experience, qualifications and accomplishments of Daly, they react very positively. Daly’s initial positive sentiment of 35% moves to 80% after voters hear a short paragraph providing these basic facts.

As the campaign commences and voters begin to focus on the candidates for State Assembly, this survey shows that Daly, with his experience as the Orange County Clerk-Recorder and as former Mayor of Anaheim, is in a strong position to win this contest.

27 Responses to “Robert Hammond And Tom Daly Lead AD 69 Race”

  1. […] Here are the poll results (from the OC Political blog): […]

  2. Ocpoliticsblog said

    Obviously Perez and Barragan need to drop out now and endorse Martinez. http://wp.me/p269j9-jh

  3. […] Here are the poll results (from the OC Political blog): […]

  4. You guys are hilarious. I’m sure that the methodology used to obtain these “polling results” that you “got a hold of” is a tightly kept secret, right? Willing to share the ethnic composition of the sample, or is that proprietary information?

    Really: are you writing for a readership with any experience in politics at all, or for people who just fell off the turnip truck?

    (And how could you have missed using the headline “pretty fly for a coupla white guys”?)

    • Greg,

      You do realize that these numbers likely came from the Daly campaign? We did not conduct this poll ourselves. If you would like, I could ask Tom Daly if he will give us his methodology, but I doubt he would be interested in doing so.

      I heard a rumor that you are not polling so well against Bob Huff?

      • Ocpoliticsblog said

        I don’t question the Daly poll. Diamond is nuts as usual. It makes sense that having three Latinos in the race would split the Latino vote. Daly at over 20% is about right. Hammond is the only Republican. But he won’t get much higher than 25% – so he can make the general but will lose in Nov.

        If Perez and Barragan drop out now, Martinez can still get the Democratic nomination. If they don’t, she won’t and all the blame will fall on Perez and Barragan.

        • Art,

          I agree with most of your comment, but I don’t think Michele Martinez has a shot even if the other guys drop out.

          • Ocpoliticsblog said

            Here is why I think she does:

            1. She is the only woman in the race.
            2. She has won two elections in Santa Ana.
            3. She has the support of the Pulido machine. This poll is early. While it may reflect somewhat on absentee voters, I am hoping that Michele will unload on Daly. He will be easy to go negative on. That will drive his numbers down. He will lose GOP crossover votes when the voters find out what a money waster he is.
            4. Once Perez and Barragan drop out, and I expect them to do so, Martinez will not only get the Latino vote, she will have their support. Individually they are beneath notice. But gather up the entire Latino vote and Martinez is tied with Daly.

            And yes, Huff is going to trash Diamond, which I will celebrate.

            • You make some valid points, it is possible, but agree to disagree. This entire premise though assumes that Perez and Barragan drop out of the race. If they stay in the race Michele is in my opinion out of it.

              Let’s move this chain away from here as it is getting a bit skinny.

              • Ocpoliticsblog said

                I do agree that if Perez and Barragan stay in, the path to victory for Martinez is a narrow one, like this thread…

            • TwitterBot said

              The same could be said for Claudia Alvarez’s assembly run; how did that turn out? So why is Martinez refusing to debate the other candidates? It’s a debate being held in Spanish too.

        • Hey, do you Republicans mind if I cut in for a moment? Thanks!

          That you don’t question the Daly poll is what’s nuts, Art. But if you ask nicely, maybe they’ll give you the complete wording of the questions (including the delightful introductions to each candidate), sampling frame obtained sample composition (by gender, geography and race/ethnicity), and the other goodies that an actual survey researcher would like to see but that are somehow missing from this story. Dan Chm…ski actually had a pretty good analysis of some of the obvious deficiencies. (Well, they’re obvious to those of us who aren’t Republicans trying to knock out the reformist Democrats, at least.) What this shows me is that if you hire a solid pollster like David Binder to do a shoddy and misleading poll, he can still find a way. Maybe he gave the job to the high school interns.

          Chris, remind me: does your party still refer to the “Pulido machine,” into which Martinez has relatively recently been installed, as “corrupt”? (Art used to — but suddenly he stopped a while ago.) I barely need to ask how Republicans would vote between Daly and another Democrat — but who do you think your party would prefer between Perez and Martinez, if this poll is somehow misleading and they both make the runoff?

      • Asking Daly’s campaign for more info would be great, Chris. I’d love to see the questions, sample demographics, and notes of directions given by the campaign. And I’d like a pony.

        My poster, Morgan Fairchild, says that I’m doing fine against Huff. (You may be too young to get that joke.)

        What I find interesting is that Daly’s campaign (ultimately) gave it to a Republican blog. Is Daly the de facto Republican candidate in the race, Chris? What do you think, will the word go out among Republicans to pull the lever in June for the sacrificial lamb, or for the (from a Democratic perspective) wolf in sheep’s clothing? That’s the sort of interesting story that you could really break!

        • It wasn’t given to us by the Daly campaign we managed to get a hold of it because it was leaked. I won’t reveal our sources though.

          • LibOC describes it as having been “shopped around” since mid-week, so I would not be so quick to presume that it was not “leaked” to you by the Daly campaign, although I grant that it may not have come to you directly from their hands. But hey — you won’t reveal your sources for this scoop, so I guess we’ll never know.

            (Why won’t you reveal your source, by the way? Do you think that the Daly campaign feels burned that you published their, in effect, press release?)

        • junior said

          Mr. Diamond – I wouldn’t call Daly “a wolf in sheeps clothing.” I am sure that when it comes time for Daly to vote to raise taxes on all Californians (possibly in spite of a campaign promise to not do so) he will be right there with all the Dems, and just like Correa – he will place his vote to raise taxes.

          • You’re right Junior. Daly is Kong fiscal conservative.

          • Is there common ground here, Junior? Do we agree that, more or less, he would be “just like Correa”?

            “Just like Correa” may be good enough (from the liberal perspective) for a relatively moderate district like the new SD-34, but it is absurdly conservative for AD-69. We seem to agree on what he’d be like; just not on the particular areas in which he’d disappoint us. (There are some areas, of course, where he’d disappoint both of us.) If Daly is in thrall to developers and insurance companies, that’s wolfish enough to justify my description.

  5. As Art is so secure in the correctness of Daly’s “leaked” poll (oopsie!), I have a sporting proposition for him, taken from my OJ post inspired by this story. (Normally I’d put this in a blockquote, but there are too many lines and indentations here already.) Warning: contains elementary math. Here goes:

    Meanwhile, I have a proposition for anyone who can figure out a way to allow legal wagering on the results. Perez’s support here is a little under 1/6 of Daly’s and Hammond’s, a little under 1/3 of Martinez’s, and a little less than equal to Barragan’s. So I’ll tell you what — I’ll give you an advantage. I’ll put down $1 on Perez against each of the candidates, and you put down $6 on Daly, $6 on Hammond, $3 on Martinez, and $1 on Paco. Come the end of the primary, we’ll multiply my $1 times each of the other candidates’ percentage of the primary vote (times 100, so 25% would equal $25), and I’ll give it to you. Then we’ll multiply your $6, $6, $3, and $1 times Julio’s percentage of the vote, and you give it to me.

    I just did the math; based on the numbers in this poll. I’d owe you $25+$25+$13+$5, or $68, and you’d owe me $24+$24+$12+$4, or $64. You’d win $4 — almost 6%! Have you ever seen an easier, more surefire way to make money?

    Wait, wait — don’t walk away! Don’t you have faith in the poll? C’mon, Emami and Pedroza, at least you two should be willing to take me up on it, given how seriously you’re taking the results! Come on, have some faith! I’m giving you good odds here!

    (Unless you don’t believe the numbers either, I guess….)

    If the lesson’s not clear enough for you, Art, the fact that only an idiot would take my bet explains why no one is withdrawing from the race based on a push poll “leaked” without details. But keep on pretending that anyone should; it helps to bolster your image as a savant.

  6. Rick Perry said

    It was leaked by non other that Jean Pasco and or Daly’s boy Jordan Brandman. Both work for Daly and have nothing better to do.

  7. […] for the 69th Assembly District, in an Orange Juice blog post, and in comments he left over at the OC Political blog.  Diamond was irked by the poll as it revealed that Diamond’s pick in that race, union hack […]

  8. Vector Control said

    Chris and Chris: please do something about the Pedroza pollution on this blog. He’s using you guys to pimp linkbacks to his pathetic blog, which he’s already laughably calling “Orange County’s Top Political Blog” (check out the mobile version) so it is all at your expense, anyway.

  9. […] for the 69th Assembly District, in an Orange Juice blog post, and in comments he left over at the OC Political blog.  Diamond was irked by the poll as it revealed that Diamond’s pick in that race, union hack […]

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