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OC Republicans Shoot Selves in Foot; OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario Evaporates

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 16, 2012

In a pre-Prop 14 world, it made absolute good sense to contest every single partisan race.  Each qualified party was guaranteed exactly one candidate on the November ballot.

Prop 14 changed all that.  The top two candidates, regardless of party and regardless of whether anyone breaks 50%, advance to the November ballot.  If the top two candidates were members of the same party, presumably the more moderate candidate would win.  If there were two Democrats, the less liberal one would win thanks to Republican voters.  If there were two Republicans, the less conservative one would win thanks to Democratic voters.  Furthermore, the party with two candidates facing off in November would then spend a fortune in an intraparty battle, freeing the excluded party to spend its human and financial resources elsewhere.

In Orange County:

  • Republicans feared a November bloodbath in AD-74 between Allan Mansoor and Leslie Daigle, in which the less conservative candidate would win.  In AD-74, Republicans comprise 42.5% of registered voters, Democrats 29.0%, and no party preference voters 23.7%.
  • Democrats feard a November bloodbath in AD-69 between Tom Daly, Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, and Paco Barragan, in which the least liberal candidate would win.  In AD-69, Democrats comprise 49.7% of registered voters, Republicans 27.5%, and no party preference voters 19.1%.

Conventional wisdom held:

  • If no Democrat filed in AD-74, Democratic voters would back Republican Leslie Daigle over Republican Allan Mansoor in both June and November, as Daigle is less conservative than Mansoor.  Republicans would squander valuable human and financial resources in an intraparty battle for AD-74, freeing Democrats to spend their resources elsewhere.  However, if a Democrat were in the AD-74 race, presumably that person would be in the top two to face off against the winner of the Mansoor-Daigle fight.
  • If no Republican filed in AD-69, Republican voters would back Democrat Tom Daly over the other three Democrats (Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, and Paco Barragan) in June, as Daly is the least liberal of the four; the Republican voters would continue to back Daly over whichever Democrat he faced in November, as Daly would still be the less liberal candidate.  Democrats would squander valuable human and financial resources in an intraparty battle for AD-69, freeing Republicans to spend their resources elsewhere.  However, if a Republican were in the AD-69 race, presumably that person would be in the top two to face off against the winner of the Daly-Martinez-Perez-Barragan fight.

For about half a week, many in OC, including yours truly, thought the Democrats’ worst nightmare had materialized: a Democrat in AD-74 and no Republican in AD-69, as Robert Rush joined the Democratic Party and entered the AD-74 race while Republican Robert Hammond withdrew from AD-69 to join the Orange County Board of Education race.

Well both party’s fears came to naught and we revert to status quo in November with likely one Democrat versus one Republican.  As my intrepid fellow blog editor Chris Emami wrote, an obscure gentleman by the name of Jose Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose Moreno) filed as the sole Republican in AD-69 with barely two minutes to spare.

Robert Rush (D-74) and Jose Moreno (R-69) could spend the next three months in Siberia, and both will still be in the top two in their June races by virtue of having “Democrat” and “Republican” after their names, respectively, allowing them to advance to November, where they will be summarily destroyed by their opponent.

(In case you’re wondering, Rush has a ballot designation of “Business Owner/Accountant” and will be second on the ballot after Daigle but before Mansoor while Moreno has a ballot designation of “Orange County Eligibility Technician” and will be third on the ballot after Daly and Martinez but before Barragan and Perez.  Many voters will be left scratching their heads as to what an eligibility technician is, and if you’re one of them, here’s an explanation of what that is.)

Democrats won’t squander their resources on an intraparty AD-69 battle in November nor will Republicans squander their resources on an intraparty AD-74 battle in November.  Both parties will revert to the old rules of spending their resources against each other in November.

Former Senate Republican Leader Jim Brulte once said in reference to a San Francisco Mayoral race: “When you’re a conservative, and you’ve got a choice between a socialist and a communist, you back the socialist.”  Democrat Robert Rush has enabled the most conservative candidate to win in AD-74, and Republican Jose Moreno just enabled the most liberal candidate to win in AD-69.

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments »

Secretary of State’s Incorrect Filing Extension Can Only Be Reversed by Court Order

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 13, 2012

The Secretary of State is to blame for the incorrect filing extension.
While Emami was chasing his tail trying to get an explanation from the Orange County Registrar of Voters for why AD-69 and AD-72 had candidate filing extended (as he described in this grammatically-flawed post incorrectly blaming the Registrar), I went to the source of the people actually responsible for the filing extension: the Secretary of State.  They were the ones who instructed the county registrars to extend filing on various races.  The Secretary of State had sent this memo to the county registrars (h/t to Capitol Alert for that memo, which was oddly placed inside a post about Elizabeth Emken getting the CRP endorsement).

After contacting friends in Sacramento, they inform me that once the filing period extension has been announced, the Secretary of State cannot reverse the decision, as only a judge with a court order can shut down filing.  Only a candidate who has already completed filing has standing to launch the lawsuit necessary to get the court order (in other words only Tom Daly, Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, or Paco Barragan can sue to end the AD-69 filing extension, and only Troy Edgar, Long Pham, Travis Allen, Joe Dovinh, or Albert Ayala can sue to end the AD-72 filing extension).  If they launched the lawsuit, they’d also have to show that they were harmed by the filing extension (i.e. another candidate filed, but no new person has pulled papers in either AD-69 or AD-72 as of this morning).

Even if a candidate launched the suit, they’d have to be willing to suffer the negative press and the hits from their opponents accusing them of “anti-democratic” action by trying to prevent people from joining the race.

Then in the lawsuit itself, the candidate would then face off against bureaucrats in the Secretary of State’s office who would show some bizarrely liberal interpretation of law justifying the extension.  Then, the plaintiff candidate would have to convince the judge that there was enough damage done to themselves and the electoral process from having additional candidates that warranted an injunction (99% chance the judge would not issue an injunction to reduce the number of candidates).

The Orange County Registrar of Voters also sent this out to their e-mail list yesterday:

Explanation for Contest Extensions

March 12, 2012 – Statewide 53 Congressional, Senate and Assembly contests were extended by the Secretary of State to March 14th at 5:00 p.m.  This takes place in races “for which no eligible incumbent is seeking reelection”. The key is eligible – according to the Secretary of State they have determined that some districts that appear to lack an incumbent have eligible candidates (who currently hold office) that could have moved into the district, causing an incumbency.  Redistricting has contributed to this and In Orange County there are two Assembly Districts (69th and 72nd) that fall into this category.

So it seems that the Secretary of State’s office was encouraging carpetbagging.

  • Despite Jose Solorio being termed out and the vast majority of AD-69 being his district, the justification for extending AD-69 is because tiny pieces of Anaheim and Orange from Chris Norby’s old district were included in the new AD-69, candidate filing was extended since Chris Norby chose to run for his hometown’s AD-65 instead of carpetbagging into AD-69.
  • Despite Jim Silva being termed out and the only sitting Assembly Member in the boundaries of AD-72, the justification for extending AD-72 is because is because portions of Allan Mansoor’s old district were included in the new AD-72, candidate filing was extended since Allan Mansoor chose to run for his hometown’s AD-74 instead of carpetbagging into AD-72.

Wow.  Sometimes the Secretary of State can make even the most cynical people more cynical.

(In the interest of full disclosure, I do work in the office of Assemblyman Chris Norby for my day job.  However, I would oppose him carpetbagging into AD-69 even if I did not work for him.)

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Filing Recap: OC Dems’ Worst-Case Scenario Thanks to OCGOP Coups; AD-72 in Disarray; Spitzer, Pauly, & Rocco; Fullerton Recall Lineup Set; State Senate Races

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 12, 2012

Whole Lot of Candidates

Robert Hammond, Tom Daly, Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, Paco Barragan, Long Pham, Troy Edgar, Travis Allen, Joe Dovinh, Allan Mansoor, Leslie Daigle, Robert Rush, Albert Ayala, Todd Spitzer, Deborah Pauly, Janet Nguyen, and Steve Rocco. Not pictured for space considerations: Matt Harper, Tyler Diep, Bob Huff, Greg Diamond, Mimi Walters, Steve Young, and the 13 Fullerton Recall Candidates

Friday was such a busy candidate filing day that we still haven’t finished all our coverage of candidate filing action here on OC Political, but for those of you who weren’t reading over the weekend, here’s a quick rundown/annotated table of contents of what we’ve covered so far:

The big news that dominated our coverage was the AD-69/AD-72/OCBE chaos:

  • OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario Comes True: Coups Benefit Republicans in AD-69 & AD-74
    Republicans had long feared an all-Republican battle between Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, which would eat up Republican human and financial resources in both June and November.  There were further fears that Democrats would cast their votes for Daigle to oust the more conservative Mansoor.  These fears proved unfounded when Democrat Robert Rush qualified for the ballot.
    However, the scenario Republicans feared in AD-74 became the scenario Democrats face in AD-69.  Republican Robert Hammond pulled out of the AD-69 race, leaving four Democrats to face only each other in a bloody intra-party battle in June.  Then the top two of those four will face each other again in a bloody intra-party battle in November.  AD-69 will eat up Democratic human and financial resources in November when they could have been spending their time, energy, and money battling Republicans.
    (Prop 14 made this possible by eliminating traditional primaries, and requiring the top two candidates from the June primary to advance to the November general election, even if they’re from the same party, even if someone broke 50% in June, and even if there were only two candidates in June.)
  • Hammond Enters OCBE Race & Withdraws from AD-69, Producing OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario
    Republican Robert Hammond withdrew from the AD-69 race to enter the race for Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 1.  It was Hammond’s withdrawal from AD-69 that left Democrats in a bloody intra-party war in November, locking up Democratic resources to attack Democrats instead of Republicans.  OCBE 1 is held by conservative Republican Long Pham, who made all this possible by vacating his seat to run for AD-72.
  • AD-72: Five Candidates (Two Democrats, Three Republicans) Running
    The Republicans in the AD-72 race are OCBE Trustee Long Pham, Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar, and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.  The Democrats are Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh and 89-year-old Tea Party Democrat Albert Ayala.
  • Matt Harper opts out of 72 AD race
    Not among the candidates was Huntington Beach Councilman Matt Harper who announced his withdrawal on the final day of filing.  Just five weeks ago, the Republican line-up in AD-72 was expected to be Harper, Long Pham, and Westminster Councilman Tyler Diep.  Now Harper and Diep are out, replaced by Troy Edgar and Travis Allen.
  • Bizarre Travis Allen Strategy in AD-72: Alienate Non-Huntington Beach Voters and Declare Los Alamitos to Be “Foreign”
    With Matt Harper out and Travis Allen jumping in the race in the final days of filing, Allen certainly made a splash, with a pair of bizarre press releases that attacked Harper for endorsing “Foreign Candidate” Troy Edgar.

After all the AD-69/AD-72/OCBE chaos, how could we forget the legendary Spitzer-Pauly showdown?  And Steve Rocco!

  • Board of Supervisors: Two Crazy Races on the Docket
    The well-anticipated fiery battle for the Third Supervisorial District is proceeding as expected, with former Assemblyman/Supervisor Todd Spitzer and Villa Park Councilwoman Deborah Pauly facing off.  I don’t think Supervisor Janet Nguyen will object to being known as the boring candidate in her race, as her sole challenger is convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco.  (For the record, I am not related to Supervisor Nguyen. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Wait, there’s more!  The Fullerton Recall!

  • Battle for Fullerton: The Field is Set
    Thirteen candidates have filed for the three seats up for recall. Rick Alvarez (R), Janes Rands (G), Greg Sebourn (R), and Paula Williams (D) have filed to replace Don Bankhead.  Dorothy A. Birsic (R), Glenn P. Georgieff (D), Matthew Hakim (D), Travis Kiger (R), and Roberta Reid (NPP) have filed to replace Dick Jones.  Doug Chaffee (D), Barry Levinson (R), Sean Paden (R), and Matthew Rowe (NPP) have filed to replace Pat McKinley.

Still more…

We’re still not done with our candidate filing coverage, but at least, now, dear reader, you’re caught up.

I give South OC the award for most boring region in the 2012 Primary.  Things are much more interesting in the North OC and Central OC campaigns.  Fear not, South OC, I anticipate fun from you in the 2014 Primary to replace termed-out Supervisor Pat Bates unless Senator Mimi Walters decides to ruin it all by entering and clearing the field for herself, assuming Assemblywoman Diane Harkey continues on her path to the Board of Equalization.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Fullerton, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Los Alamitos, Orange County Board of Education, Rossmoor, Santa Ana, Seal Beach | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Hammond Enters OCBE Race & Withdraws from AD-69, Producing OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 11, 2012

Robert HammondThere are no Republicans running for AD-69, leaving OC Democrats’ worst-case scenario in place.  With no Republicans running for AD-69, Democrats will now spend their human and financial resources attacking each other in June and again in November.  Under Prop 14, the top two finishers in June advance to November.  The presumption had always been that it would be the top Democrat and Republican Robert Morris Hammond facing off in November.  With Hammond out, the Democrats now effectively have to run their expensive primary twice.

OC Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly, Santa Ana Councilwoman Michele Martinez, Union Leader Julio Perez, and Businessman Paco Barragan were supposed to sort out who would carry the Democrats’ banner against Hammond in November.  There had been much speculation that the Latino vote would split, allowing Daly to win the plurality of the Democrats to face off against Hammond, who would consolidate the entirety of the Republican vote.  However, Hammond’s withdrawal leaves two of those four Democrats to face off against each other.  Presumably, Daly still advances with the to face off against one of the Latino candidates.

The question of who wins the AD-69 election is: as the least liberal Democrat in the race, can Daly consolidate the Republican vote behind him?  If the Martinez-Perez-Barragan voters consolidate behind one candidate, they would presumably be the majority of the votes cast by Democrats.  However, if Daly can capture the Republicans, then he will win by combining the Republican vote with the portion of the Democrats’ votes he had in June.  In AD-69, Democrats make up 49.7% of registered voters, Republicans make up 27.5% of registered voters, and No Party Preference voters make up 19.1%.  By winning all the Republicans, half the NPP, and just 30% of Democrats, Daly can form a winning coalition in November.  However, if any of the others can make a play for the Republican vote, they could destabilize the Daly coalition and win themselves.  In a most unusual election, the Democrats in AD-69 may well try to position themselves as the conservative candidate in the Primary, in hopes of holding the Republican vote in November.  (We’ve already received e-mail messages this weekend at OC Political from some of the Dem AD-69 candidates touting their “non-partisan” or “bi-partisan” viewpoints.)

Bottom line for Republicans: the AD-69 race will eat up valuable human and financial resources for the Democrats in November, freeing up Republican resources to spent on other races.  Furthermore, the least liberal Democrat will likely be elected to represent the seat.

Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham is partly to thank for this event.  Pham’s bid for the 72nd Assembly District left his seat on the County Board vacant.  Republican Robert Hammond had been running for AD-69, heavily on education issues, including overturning SB 48 and enhancing career technical education programs.  Indeed, Hammond has been a teacher since he completed his service in the Marine Corps and earned his college degrees.  With the solidly conservative Pham vacating the OCBE’s Central Orange County seat, that left conservatives searching for a candidate to succeed Pham.

Conservatives quickly turned to one of the most passionate conservative education advocates in Central Orange County – Robert Hammond.  With Hammond’s deep knowledge of and passion for education issues, he is well-suited to be the conservative standard bearer for the Central OC seat on the OCBE.

Ordinarily, we’d run press releases under the “Newsletter Reprint” account, but this particular press release is central to an important piece of political news, so here is the press release from the Hammond campaign…

Robert Hammond Enters Orange County Board of Education Race

SANTA ANA, CA – At the urging of conservative activists and leaders across the county, Robert Morris Hammond has entered the race for Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 1.  The seat is being vacated by the incumbent, fellow conservative Republican Long Pham, who is now running for the 72nd Assembly District.

“Education has always been one of my great passions.  After completing my service in the United States Marine Corps and earning my college degrees, I became a teacher,” Hammond said.  “I’ve taught in special education, English Immersion classes, teacher training programs, and adult literacy courses.”

Hammond has long campaigned on education issues, emphasizing faith, family, and freedom.  He has also worked on efforts to overturn SB 48.  As an Orange County Board of Education member, Hammond will be able to fight the implementation of SB 48 in the schools overseen by the OCBE.  SB 48 and increasing career technical education had been two major issues that drove Hammond to run for office.

“It is with great reluctance that I withdraw from the 69th Assembly District race, but after Dr. Pham filed for the 72nd Assembly District on Thursday, numerous conservatives urged me to enter the race for Dr. Pham’s seat,” Hammond added.  “We were all concerned that Dr. Pham’s seat could fall into liberal hands, and with Trustee Area 1 covering much the same territory as AD-69, many concerned conservative citizens and leaders asked me to consider entering the race for the Orange County Board of Education, which I have now done.  I look forward to a vigorous campaign and victory in June.”

Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 1 covers Santa Ana, Tustin, Garden Grove (east of Beach Boulevard), and Fountain Valley (east of the 405 freeway).

(In the interest of full disclosure, Hammond is a Custom Campaigns client.)

Posted in 69th Assembly District, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , | 12 Comments »

Board of Supervisors: Two Crazy Races on the Docket

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2012

Todd Spitzer, Deborah Pauly, Janet Nguyen, and Steve Rocco

3rd District Candidates Todd Spitzer and Deborah Pauly, 1st District Supervisor Janet Nguyen, and 1st District Challenger Steve Rocco

I’m not sure which supervisorial race will be more entertaining this June: Todd Spitzer vs. Deborah Pauly or Janet Nguyen vs. Steve Rocco.  The Spitzer-Pauly race in the Third District will have some great fireworks, as Spitzer and Pauly are two of Orange County’s most aggressive campaigners while the Nguyen-Rocco race in the First District will simply be entertaining by virtue of Steve Rocco.

Third Supervisorial District

Incumbent Supervisor Bill Campbell is termed out after nearly ten years on the Board of Supervisors; he was elected in a 2003 special election (indeed, this was Orange County’s first-ever Supervisorial vacancy special election, as all previous vacancies had been filled by gubernatorial appointment) to replace Todd Spitzer who had vacated the seat to enter the State Assembly.

The candidates (as expected) are:

Former Assemblyman and former Third District Supervisor Todd Spitzer is running to for his old job.   Originally slated to battle former Assemblyman Chuck DeVore for the seat, DeVore moved to Texas late last year.  With DeVore out, Villa Park Councilwoman Deborah Pauly stepped into the race.  Fireworks have sparked every time these two candidates have met in debates throughout the Third District.  The mail should be fun to read.  Spitzer definitely has the cash advantage in this race, as I posted here.  For other coverage of the race, you can view the, um, rather, um slanted perspective that HBK provides.

First Supervisorial District

The candidates are:

After Kinde Durkee wiped out Democrat Assemblyman Jose Solorio and Democrat Senator Lou Correa’s warchests, Supervisor Janet Nguyen was left with a warchest that dwarfed those of Solorio and Correa combined.  Solorio and Correa would have had to spend an enormous sum to unseat Nguyen.

With the fact that most of his money was gone and that Assemblymembers don’t have a very good track record of unseating incumbent Supervisors (see Guy Houston or Audra Strickland), Solorio opted to avoid a losing battle with Nguyen.

Faced with the fact that most of his money was gone, Correa opted to wait.  He could be hoping that Nguyen will go for his Senate seat in 2014 when he’s termed out, which will free up the First Supervisorial District seat for a 2015 special election, much like Correa did when he vacated this Supervisorial seat in 2006 causing a 2007 Supervisorial special election that Nguyen won.

So now we’re left with, um, what’s the polite way to put it, um, colorful former Orange Unified School District Trustee Steve Rocco.  I could also call him convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco.  Perhaps, Rocco’s previous election opponents can form a bipartisan coalition to give Nguyen advice on beating Rocco (or at least on how to keep Rocco from stealing her condiments), though I suspect the advice will be along the lines of: don’t steal mustard:

  • OUSD Trustee Rick Ledesma (R), who defeated Rocco 72%-28% in November 2010
  • Former OC Public Administrator John Williams (R), who defeated Rocco 58%-11% in a four-way race in June 2010
  • Santa Ana City Councilman Carlos Bustamante (R), who defeated Rocco 50%-18% in a four-way race in November 2008
  • Rancho Santiago Community College District Trustee John Hanna (D), who defeated Rocco 74%-26% in November 2006 and 71%-29% in November 2002
  • Santa Ana Mayor Miguel Pulido (D), who defeated Rocco 71%-12% in a three-way race in November 2000

(Surprisingly, Rocco did not run for Governor in the 2003 recall.)

Don’t ask OC Park Ranger Phil Martinez, though, as he’s the one who lost 54%-46% to Rocco in the OUSD race in November 2004.

Will Rocco accuse Supervisor Nguyen of being part of “The Partnership” which Rocco previously claimed was the secret group ruling the United States?  Will Rocco accuse Supervisor Nguyen of trying to have him killed, similar to the accusation he leveled at “The Partnership,” Chapman University President Jim Doti, and Chapman Professor Fred Smoller?

Please read the Wikipedia article on Steve Rocco for your own entertainment.

(For the record, I am not related to Supervisor Nguyen. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

State Senate Races: Republican Senators Face Democrat Attorneys

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2012

29th Senate District and 37th Senate DistrictDue to redistricting, Orange County will be part of five Senate districts: the 29th, 32nd, 34th, 36th, and 37th.  While the 32nd, 34th, and 36th won’t be up until 2014, this year’s ballot will feature the 29th and 37th Senate District races.

SD-29

In SD-29, the candidates are:

  • Robert “Bob” Huff (R) – Lawmaker/Business Owner
  • Greg Diamond (D) – Workers’ Rights Attorney

Huff, a resident of LA County, is the current Senate Republican Leader.  Diamond is an Orange County attorney, who is also a blogger for Orange Juice and serves as a liaison for Occupy Orange County.

SD-29 includes North Orange County, southeastern Los Angeles County, and the City of Chino Hills in San Bernardino County.  The LA County portion of SD-29 consists of the whole cities of Diamond Bar, Rowland Heights, and Walnut, along with portions of the City of Industry and West Covina.  The OC portion of SD-29 consists of the whole cities of Brea, Cypress, Fullerton, La Habra, Placentia, Stanton, and Yorba Linda, along with portions of Anaheim and Buena Park.

SD-37

In SD-37, the candidates are:

Walters is Vice Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.  Young is an attorney, who ran against John Campbell for Congress three times.

SD-37 is entirely inside Orange County and consists of the whole cities of Costa Mesa, Irvine, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, Lake Forest, Newport Beach, Tustin, and Villa Park, along with Anaheim Hills and North Tustin, as well as portions of Anaheim (east of the 57 freeway), most of Orange (east of the 57 freeway), and half of Huntington Beach (south of Talbert Avenue and Seapoint Avenue).

Posted in 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , | 15 Comments »

AD-72: Five Candidates (Two Democrats, Three Republicans) Running

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2012

72nd Assembly DistrictIn AD-72, the withdrawal of Huntington Beach Councilman (and OC Political blogger) Matt Harper has shaken up the field.  That leaves millionaire Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar as the Republican front-runner.  Orange County Board of Education Member Long Pham will gain most of the substantial Vietnamese Republican vote.  Huntington Beach Activist Travis Allen is the third Republican in the race, and judging by the two press releases we at OC Political received this morning (we’ll post those tomorrow), he will be running a Huntington Beach-centric campaign.  Huntington Beach is the second largest city in the district, behind only Garden Grove (while Huntington Beach as a whole is bigger than Garden Grove as a whole; most of Garden Grove is in AD-72 while only half of Huntington Beach is in AD-72).

The leading Democrat in the race is Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh. Dovinh’s wife is Garden Grove City Councilwoman Dina Nguyen.  (For the record, I am not related to either Nguyen or Dovinh [or Pham, for that matter]; Nguyen is an exceedingly common last name, encompassing 36% of Vietnamese people.)   The other Democrat in the race is 89-year-old Albert Ayala, who is actually a Tea Party Democrat.

To recap, the five candidates on the ballot (along with their parties, cities of residence, and ballot designations) are:

  • Troy Edgar (R-Los Alamitos) – Businessman/Mayor
  • Long Pham (R-Fountain Valley) – Member, Orange County Board of Education
  • Travis Allen (R-Huntington Beach) – Small Business Owner
  • Joe Dovinh (D-Garden Grove) – City Commissioner/Businessperson
  • Albert Ayala (D-Garden Grove) – Retired Police Commander

Edgar is a multi-millionaire not averse to spending his own money for a campaign having loaned his previous Congressional campaign $400,000, and some close to Edgar have indicated he is prepared to spend $1 million to win the Assembly seat.  Pham is also an affluent candidate, having dropped $100,000 into his Assembly warchest (while most Assembly candidates who loan their campaigns $100,000 are bluffing, Pham is not, as he’s already started spending substantial portions of the $100,000).  Allen has informed OC Political that he has $90,000 in pledged support.  This is shaping up to be one expensive Republican primary.

Republicans consist of 42% of AD-72’s registered voters while Democrats sit at 31%.  22% of AD-72’s registered voters are No Party Preference while the remaining 5% are registered in third parties.

AD-72 consists of the entirety of Westminster, Fountain Valley, Los Alamitos, Seal Beach, Rossmoor, and Midway City, along with northern Huntington Beach (north of Ellis Avenue, Garfield Avenue, and Seapoint Street), most of Garden Grove (west of West Street), and a small portion of Santa Ana (west of the Santa Ana River [south of 1st Street] and west of Harbor Boulevard [north of 1st Street]).

Posted in 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , | 2 Comments »

OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario Comes True: Coups Benefit Republicans in AD-69 & AD-74

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2012

Due to Prop 14, instead of a traditional primary (where the top June Primary vote-getter from each party would advance to the November General Election), the top two candidates regardless of party would advance to November.  Before candidate filing opened, conservative Republicans feared that the 74th Assembly District would pit conservative Republican Assemblyman Allan Mansoor versus liberal Republican Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, with no Democrat in the race.  In that scenario, Daigle would grab part of the Republican vote along with nearly all the Democrats’ votes to edge out Mansoor.

Well, now, Orange County Democrats find themselves in their worse-case scenario, and Orange County Republicans are sitting pretty.

There’s a Democrat running in AD-74, and there’s no Republican in AD-69.

AD-74

The candidates in AD-74 are:

With Rush in the race, Daigle’s hopes of using Democratic votes to advance to November are dashed.  Rush will hold the Democratic vote, and Daigle will be forced to battle Mansoor in the June primary for the Republican vote.  Conservative Republican primary voters will pick Mansoor over Daigle, and the November general election will feature the Republicans’ Mansoor versus the Democrats’ Rush.  With a 13% Republican registration advantage, Mansoor will cruise to victory over Rush, instead of a costly general election between two Republicans.

(Mansoor, Daigle, and Rush have already qualified for the ballot while No Party Preference Candidate Paul Vann did not file for the seat.)

AD-69

The candidates in AD-69 are:

(Daly and Martinez have already qualified for the ballot. The Registrar is still examining the nomination paperwork submitted by Perez and Barragan. Republican Robert Hammond did not file for the seat.)

Democrats expected to settle their four-way primary battle between Daly, Martinez, Perez, and Barragan in June, with the winning Democrats likely in one of the first two positions, Republican Robert Hammond in one of the other top two positions, and the losing Democrats occupying spots 3-5.  This would then set up one Democrat versus Hammond, allowing Democrats to unify their money against Republicans in November.

However, with Hammond pulling out of the AD-69 race, that means the four Democrats will battle it out in the June primary and then the top two Democrats will battle it out again in the November general election.  Democrats will be spending their money clobbering each other in AD-69 in November in an expensive intraparty war that simultaneously costs Democrats resources they won’t be spending elsewhere in OC and California and frees up Republican resources to be spent elsewhere in OC and California.

Instead of Republicans spending money against Republicans in AD-74, it’s going to be Democrats spending money against Democrats in AD-69.

Stay tuned for an announcement from the Hammond campaign later today tomorrow…

(In the interest of full disclosure, Robert Hammond is a Custom Campaigns client.)

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments »

Battle for Fullerton: The Field is Set

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2012

Fullerton City Council Meeting(UPDATED SUNDAY 3/11 7:40 PM with most of the missing ballot designations.)

I realize I promised a post before midnight; I hope you’ll forgive five minutes delay.

In the Fullerton recall, voters will decide whether or not to recall City Councilmen Don Bankhead, Dick Jones, and Pat McKinley.  Each man’s recall is technically a separate race.  (I explained the logistics of the election in this post, as some of you may have read.)  Since each recall is technically a separate race, candidates had to pick one seat to run for.  (The Elections Code prevents them from running for more than one of the three seats at a time.)

So here’s a look at the candidates…

Running for Bankhead’s seat:

  • Rick Alvarez (R) – Ballot Designation Not Yet Released by County Registrar or City Clerk Businessowner/Planning Commissioner
    A Fullerton Transportation & Circulation Commissioner, Alvarez originally pulled papers for all three seats.
  • Jane Rands (G) – Systems Engineer
    The Chair of the Fullerton Bicycle Users Subcommittee and Treasurer of the Green Party of Orange County, Rands originally pulled papers for all three seats.  She ran for the State Assembly in 2010.
  • Greg Sebourn (R) – Businessman/Educator
    The Chair of the Fullerton Citizen’s Infrastructure Review Commission and Assemblyman Chris Norby’s Alternate on the Republican Central Committee, Sebourn originally pulled papers for all three seats.  He ran for the City Council in 2010.
  • Paula Williams (D) – Public Employee
    Williams only pulled papers for this seat.

Running for Jones’s seat:

  • Dorothy A. Birsic (R) – Ballot Designation Not Yet Released by County Registrar or City Clerk
    Birsic only pulled papers for this seat.
  • Glenn P. Georgieff (D) – IT Specialist
    A former Fullerton Library Trustee, Georgieff only pulled papers this seat.
  • Matthew Hakim (D) – Ballot Designation Not Yet Released by County Registrar or City Clerk Musician, Artist
    Hakim only pulled papers for this seat.
  • Travis Kiger (R) – Fullerton Planning Commissioner
    A Fullerton Planning Commissioner and blogger at Friends for Fullerton’s Future, Kiger only pulled papers for this seat.
  • Roberta J. Reid (NPP) – Student
    Reid originally pulled papers for all three seats.

Running for McKinley’s seat:

  • Doug Chaffee (D) – Business Attorney
    A former Fullerton Planning Commissioner, Chaffee pulled papers for all three seats.  He ran for the City Council in 2010.
  • Barry Levinson (R) – Ballot Designation Not Yet Released by County Registrar or City Clerk Parks and Recreation Commissioner/Auditor
    A Fullerton Parks & Recreation Commissioner, Levinson pulled papers for all three seats. He ran for the City Council in 2010.
  • Sean Paden (R) – Ballot Designation Not Yet Released by County Registrar or City Clerk Construction Attorney
    Paden only pulled papers for this seat.
  • Matthew Rowe (NPP) – Aerospace Project Manager
    Rowe orignally pulled papers for all three seats.

Tune in to OC Political after 6:00 AM for the wackiness of Central Committee and the partisan offices.

(As you might note, I’ve played it straight, reporting just the facts on this post, rather than doing any analysis.  In the interest of full disclosure, I should note my day job is working in the Fullerton office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who served on the Fullerton City Council from 1984-2002.  One of my co-workers in the office is Fullerton City Councilman Bruce Whitaker, who was elected in 2010 and is not a target of the recall.)

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Wild Candidate Filing Night

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 9, 2012

So you might be wondering what happened in candidate filing…well, the last candidates left the Registrar’s office shortly before 8:30 PM in what most observers and even some Registrar employees called the strangest night in candidate filing they’ve ever seen.

We’ll be posting a little bit tonight and early tomorrow.  I’ll have a Fullerton update before midnight…

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