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Posts Tagged ‘Anila Ali’

AD-74: Katherine Daigle Pulls Papers, Joining Karina Onofre in Field of Increasingly Bizarre Challengers to Matt Harper

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 11, 2016

Assemblyman Matt Harper (R-Huntington Beach)

Assemblyman Matt Harper (R-Huntington Beach)

Katherine Daigle (R), Perennial candidate for Mayor of Irvine, has pulled papers to challenge the re-election bid of Assemblyman Matt Harper (R-Huntington Beach).  Daigle, who received 14% of the vote in 2012 and 11.6% of the vote in 2014, was accused of being a decoy candidate to split the Republican vote in the mayoral races, but Steven Choi (R) prevailed over Larry Agran (D) in 2012 and Mary Ann Gaido (D) in 2014 despite Daigle’s presence in the race.

Daigle’s quixotic bid for State Assembly means one of two things: she wasn’t a decoy candidate in her mayoral bids or her handlers to make her a decoy candidate for mayor have inadvertently unleashed her desires for any public office.

I don’t understand people who lose bids for office who decide to run for higher office.  How does losing two races for mayor make Daigle think she could win a race for Assembly?  (Similar note: How did Carly Fiorina think losing a U.S. Senate race would make her a good candidate for President?  At least Fiorina finally had the good sense to drop out of the presidential race yesterday.)

Daigle pulling papers combined with Karina Onofre being the sole Democrat to pull papers could well give AD-74 the most bizarre field of challengers for a sitting incumbent.

Readers may recall Onofre inadvertently played a key role in getting Harper elected to the Assembly in 2014.  That year, Onofre pulled papers for AD-74 as a Republican but filed papers as a Democrat (she had only been a Republican for 20 months).  Onofre pulled enough of the Democratic vote away from actual Democrat Anila Ali to push Ali into third place.  Harper then landed in second place behind Newport Beach Councilman Keith Curry (R).  Thanks to the top two primary and Onofre getting Ali into third place, Republicans Curry and Harper advanced to the run-off where Harper prevailed.  Had Onofre not gotten into the race, it would have been Curry vs. Ali in November, where Curry would have won by a landslide.

For the entire OC Political file on the bizarreness of Karina “Karina” Onofre, click here.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

OC’s Top 10 Primary Election Stories

Posted by Chris Nguyen on June 4, 2014

Eric Woolery, Robert Hammond, Linda Lindholm, and Ken Williams

OC Board of Education Group Photo at the Custom Campaigns June 3 Election Night Party at BJ’s in Irvine:
Auditor-Controller-Elect/Orange City Treasurer/Former OCBE Trustee Eric Woolery, OCBE Trustee Robert Hammond, Laguna Niguel Mayor/OCBE Trustee-Elect Linda Lindholm, and OCBE Trustee Ken Williams.

Woolery achieved a historic margin of victory in his race for Auditor-Controller (story #6) while Lindholm knocked off Orange County’s longest-serving-in-a-single-office incumbent (story #5). 

As expected, it was a busy night in yesterday’s primary election.  Here’s a rundown of the top 10 stories:

  1. AD-74: Keith Curry and Matt Harper Advance, Emanuel Patrascu LastEmami called it, mostly.  Thanks to Karina Onofre spoiling the Democratic vote for Anila Ali, we have an all-Republican battle for AD-74 to replace Assemblyman Allan Mansoor.  Shockingly, Emanuel Patrascu who had the second most money in AD-74 came in fifth while Harper who spent next to nothing (and what he did spend focused on slate mailers) came in a comfortable second.  This comes down to a Newport vs. Huntington battle in the November runoff, as Newport Beach Councilman Curry fights it out with Huntington Beach Mayor Harper for the Assembly seat.  How much in Republican resources will be drained by the AD-74 race in November, as Republicans seek to capture SD-34 and AD-65 from the Democrats?
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  2. AD-73: Bill Brough Wins GOP Nomination, Anna Bryson Last – In this safe Republican seat, Bill Brough’s low-budget operation demonstrated that precinct walking does work for winning open seats.  With Democrat Wendy Gabriella advancing to the runoff with Brough, he is the prohibitive favorite to be the next Assemblymember from the 73rd District and the district’s first Assemblyman in 16 years after Assemblywomen Patricia Bates, Mimi Walters, and Diane Harkey.  Depending on completion of vote counts for absentees and provisionals, Anna Bryson’s IE-laden campaign may have cost well over $100 per vote.  (To put the massive IE spending for Bryson in perspective, here’s how much spending would have been needed for several other candidates in other races to match that rate: Michelle Steel would have needed $2.4 million, Linda Lindholm $3.1 million, and Eric Woolery $11.0 million.)  This race clearly demonstrated: money can’t buy everything.
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  3. AD-55: Ling-Ling Chang Captures Top Spot – In a brutal slugfest between Diamond Bar Councilwoman Ling-Ling Chang and Walnut Valley Unified School District Trustee Phillip Chen with Diamond Bar Councilman Steve Tye threatening to play spoiler, well-funded Chang managed to overcome very-well-funded Chen’s financial advantage to capture the top spot with 28% of the vote, pushing Chen into third place with 23% of the vote and Tye with 22% of the vote.  Democrat Gregg Fritchle came in second with 28% of the vote.  In this safe Republican district, Chang is the prohibitive favorite to be the next Assemblymember from the 55th District, replacing Curt Hagman.
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  4. SD-34: Janet Nguyen Captures Majority of Votes Cast; Republicans Take Almost 2/3 of Votes Cast – It was a foregone conclusion that Orange County Supervisor Janet Nguyen would be the Republican nominee against the Democrats’ nominee, former Assemblyman Jose Solorio, in the hotly-contested SD-34.  What is shocking is that despite the presence of Republican former Orange County Board of Education Trustee Long Pham on the ballot, Nguyen still managed to capture 52% of the vote to Solorio’s 34% in the two-county SD-34 race.  Pham captured 14%.  With Republicans capturing nearly 2/3 of the vote, and Nguyen herself capturing 52%, this builds significant momentum for Nguyen heading into the November race, with Republicans turning to Nguyen to break the Democrats’ supermajority in the State Senate and Democrats turning to Solorio to preserve the Democrats’ Senate supermajority.  (For the record, I am not related to Janet Nguyen. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)
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  5. Orange County Board of Education: Linda Lindholm Unseats 32-Year Incumbent Giant Slayer Liz Parker – For the last few years, there was a joke in education circles that the way to win an Assembly seat was to lose an Orange County Board of Education race to Liz Parker.  Chuck DeVore lost to Parker in 1990 and won an Assembly seat in 2004. Don Wagner lost to Parker in 1998 and won an Assembly seat in 2010.  However, Parker is done.  After nearly a 1/3 of a century in office, Liz Parker has been unseated by Laguna Niguel Mayor Linda Lindholm.  No elected official in Orange County has held the same office longer than Liz Parker.  (Indeed, Parker graduated from college the same month she was elected to the Orange County Board of Education.)
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  6. Auditor-Controller: Eric Woolery’s Unprecedented Majority – In a five-way race with no incumbent for Auditor-Controller, Orange City Treasurer Eric Woolery won nearly 57% of the vote, nearly 40% better than the second-place candidate, Deputy Auditor-Controller Frank Davies, who won 17% of the vote.  In a race with three or more candidates with no incumbent, there has not been a candidate who has won by such a large margin in at least 30 years and, quite possibly, ever.  Indeed, there was only one candidate in those incumbent-free, 3+ candidate races who even averted a runoff: David Sundstrom, who received 50.3% of the vote for Auditor-Controller in 1998. (Anaheim Mayor Tom Daly won 41% of the vote in a five-way race for Clerk-Recorder in 2002 before winning the runoff.  Assistant Public Administrator Vicki Landrus won 41% of the vote and College Trustee John Williams won 36% of the vote in a four-way race for Public Administrator in 2002; Williams won the runoff.  OC Internal Auditor David Sundstrom won 50.3% of the vote in a three-way race for Auditor-Controller in 1998.  OC Assistant Assessor Webster Guillory won 26% of the vote in a seven-way race for Assessor in 1998 before winning the runoff.)
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  7. Irvine Unified School District: Ira Glasky Renders Special Election Moot, Beats Agran-Backed Candidate – After IUSD Trustee Gavin Huntley-Fenner resigned due to business and family obligations, the IUSD Board appointed Ira Glasky to fill the seat in November 2013.  Utilizing an obscure section of the Education Code, a petition drive gathered the necessary 1,643 signatures (1.5% of registered voters at the 2012 school board election) to invalidate Glasky’s appointment and force a special election.  The special election cost IUSD schools hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars.  Three candidates filed to run: Glasky, Larry Agran-backed Carolyn Inmon, and Bob Vu.  Glasky won 42% of the vote to Inmon’s 37% and Vu’s 22%.  IUSD was forced to spend hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars on a special election that had the same end result as if the special election had never happened.
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  8. Assessor: Webster Guillory vs. Claude Parrish Runoff – In 2010, Webster Guillory won 53% of the vote to Claude Parrish’s 47%, but Parrish ran as “Businessman/Tax Consultant” in 2010.  Parrish is “Taxpayer Advocate/Businessman” this year.  Last night, Guillory won 47% to Parrish’s 43%, with Jorge Lopez getting 10%.  Parrish’s stronger ballot designation narrowed the margin between Guillory and Parrish.  In Guillory’s favor is the fact that November voters are more favorable to incumbents than June voters.  In Parrish’s favor is the fact that he has a stronger ballot designation in 2014 than he did in 2010.  Also in Parrish’s favor is the investigation around whether or not Guillory’s nomination papers were signed by his subordinates at the office on County time; if this garners more publicity it helps Parrish; if it fizzles, it’s moot.
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  9. Supe-5: Robert Ming vs. Lisa Bartlett RunoffThe narrative in this race always had business interests spending on IEs for Mission Viejo Councilman Frank Ury to put him into the runoff for the Fifth District Supervisor’s race.  The conventional wisdom was wrong, as Laguna Niguel Councilman Robert Ming and Dana Point Mayor Lisa Bartlett each achieved 29% of the vote (Ming ahead of Bartlett by 0.4%), with Ury in third at 24% and Deputy District Attorney Joe Williams last at 18%.
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  10. Supe-2: Steel Beats Mansoor 2-1 as Both Make Runoff – Conventional wisdom held that the Second District Supervisor’s race would result in a runoff between Board of Equalization Member Michelle Steel and Assemblyman Allan Mansoor.  What wasn’t expected was just how close to 50% Steel would get or how large her margin over Mansoor would be.  Surpassing most expectations, Steel pulled off 47% of the vote to Mansoor’s 24%, with Coast Community College District Trustee Jim Moreno at 22% and Huntington Beach Councilman Joe Carchio at 8%.

These honorable mentions were things that happened as expected but may have interesting footnotes:

Honorable Mention #1 – CD-45: Raths Falls Short, Jockeying Begins for SD-37 and Even AD-68 – Republican Retired Marine Colonel Greg Raths fell 4% short of overtaking Democrat Educator/Businessman Drew Leavens to advance to the general election with Republican Senator Mimi Walters.  Did Walters’s hit piece (calling Raths a “Bill Clinton Republican” for his assignment to the Clinton White House while serving in the Marine Corps) move the needle 4%?  Jockeying for the special election for Walters’s SD-37 seat and even Assemblyman Don Wagner’s AD-68 seat has already begun since Walters is expected to crush Leavens in CD-45 in November.

Honorable Mention #2 – Shawn Nelson: OC’s Biggest Supervisorial Landslide Ever? With 84% of the vote, Supervisor Shawn Nelson’s reelection bid may well be the most lopsided victory ever achieved by an Orange County supervisor (excluding races where a Supervisor was unopposed or a Supervisor’s only opponent was a write-in candidate).

Honorable Mention #3 – Measure A: OC’s Biggest Landslide Ever? – With 88% of voters in casting ballots in favor of Measure A, the measure may well have achieved the highest percentage ever for a ballot measure in Orange County.

In the interest of full disclosure, clients of Custom Campaigns (the consulting firm that owns OC Political) include four IUSD Trustees (story #7: Ira Glasky, Paul Bokota, Lauren Brooks, and Michael Parham), three OCBE Trustees (story #5: Linda Lindholm, Robert Hammond, and Ken Williams), Eric Woolery (story #6), and Robert Ming (story #9).  Separate and apart from the consulting firm that owns OC Political, this blogger also did the staff work for Measure A (honorable mention #3).

Posted in 2nd Supervisorial District, 34th Senate District, 55th Assembly District, 5th Supervisorial District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Orange County Auditor-Controller, Orange County Board of Education | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments »

AD 74 Watch: Howard Ahmanson Weighs In

Posted by Scott Carpenter on June 2, 2014

As if the Assembly District 74 race hadn’t been entertaining enough, former GOP stalwart and conservative activist Howard Ahmanson made a late push attacking Keith Curry and attacking Anila Ali, while pumping up Karina Onofre in this mailer sent to democrats:Ali1

Ali2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ahmanson didn’t stop there, his Fieldsted & Co. has also made contributions to Curry and Ali’s opponents Emanuel Patrascu, Matthew Harper and Karina Onofre. This is quite interesting, it appears Ahmanson is trying to drive a wedge in the Democratic primary and see which viable GOP alternative can advance against Curry. Ahmanson famously left the GOP in 2008 saying the hard line stance against taxes was evidence of misplaced priorities. Interestingly he joined the Democratic Party which is much more in opposition to his social views. Picking Onofre, who claims she is a conservative Democrat, seems to be the “most” in line with the direction he wishes to see the party move. However the more practical purpose of these moves is to see a division in the Democratic primary prevail. About 25 hours from now we will see if it was too little too late.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , | 5 Comments »

Handicapping The Races: 74th Assembly District (June 2014)

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on May 27, 2014

It is getting worse, Chris Nguyen is likely going to come after me with the butcher knife from the Emanuel Patrascu mailer. Here is my take on the 74th Assembly District race which is open due to Assemblyman Allan Mansoor making an ill-advised run for the 2nd Supervisorial District against Michelle Steel.

Here are the candidates running for AD 74:

  • Karina “Karina” Onofre (D) – Small Business Owner
  • Keith D. Curry (R) – Businessman/City Councilmember
  • Emanuel Patrascu (R) – Orange County Business Owner
  • Matthew Harper (R) – Huntington Beach Mayor
  • Anila Ali (D) – Middle School Teacher

Voter registration heavily favors Republicans, with Republicans having 43% of registered voters in the 74th Assembly District compared to Democrats who hold just 29% of voter registration which is extremely close to the number of No Party Preference voters who hold 23% of the vote. This is an open primary that falls under the rules of Proposition 14, so regardless of percentages, the two candidates with the most votes will advance to the November election. The 74th Assembly District currently has the following cities within its boundaries:

  • Costa Mesa
  • Laguna Beach
  • Laguna Woods
  • Newport Beach
  • Huntington Beach (Portion)
  • Irvine (Portion)

Karina “Karina” Onofre

I have had numerous Democrats call me accusing Republicans of planting Karina Onofre in this race as a Democrat to try and embarrass the Democratic Party. Onofre is a former candidate for Santa Ana City Council. Let’s take a look at her electoral history.

Results from November 2012 (General Election):

CITY OF SANTA ANA Member, City Council, Ward 5
Completed Precincts: 108 of 108
Vote Count Percentage
ROMAN A. REYNA 32,419 61.8%
KARINA ONOFRE 20,065 38.2%

Onofre has major issues with turning her campaign finance reports in on time and has very little money raised ($5,000 raised as of the last report) and I am not considering her $100,000 loan a factor unless she actually starts to spend it. Normally I would say that the Democrat usually would have an excellent shot of advancing to November but Onofre will be splitting votes with fellow Democrat Anila Ali. This leads me to believe that due to Democratic registration being low that with a vote split Onofre and Ali will finish in the last place slots this June.

Nevertheless, Onofre has made this election a lot of fun. Check out these posts from Scott Carpenter; Prepare to be Entertained: The AD 74 “Feet to the Fire” Candidate Forum and AD74 Watch: Karina Onofre Channels Napoleon Dynamite.

Keith D. Curry

Keith Curry is considered the front-runner by most prognosticators at this point. He has the most money and has name ID in one of the largest cities in the district (Newport Beach)

Curry has been on the ballot multiple times in Newport Beach with a very successful track record in getting elected. Let’s take a brief look at his electoral history.

Results from November 2012 (General Election):

CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH Member, City Council, District 7
Completed Precincts: 89 of 89
Vote Count Percentage
KEITH D. CURRY 30,255 100.0%

Results from November 2008 (General Election):

CITY OF NEWPORT BEACH Member, City Council, District 7
Completed Precincts: 92 of 92
Vote Count Percentage
KEITH D. CURRY 21,259 55.0%
DOLORES OTTING 17,376 45.0%

Curry is in complete control when it comes to campaign fundraising with over $171,000 raised and he has also spent his $100,000 loan in addition to the money he has raised. He has purchased multiple slate mailers, signs, and is currently in the lead on mail. Here are some of the mailers that our blogger Marion Morrison has posted:

AD 74 – Curry and Patrascu Both Positive
AD 74 – More Positive From Keith Curry
AD 74 Mail – Curry Postive and Patrascu Negative

With the amount of money that he has spent on voter contact it is a safe bet that Curry will be advancing to November.

Emanuel Patrascu

I will give Emanuel Patrascu credit because he has run an excellent campaign so far. He picked an excellent ballot designation and he has spent his money wisely on direct mail.

Patrascu has run for office before in Laguna Beach. Let’s take a brief look at her electoral history.

Results from November 2010 (General Election):

CITY OF LAGUNA BEACH Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 26 of 26
Vote Count Percentage
* KELLY H. BOYD 7,190 30.3%
* ELIZABETH PEARSON 6,669 28.1%
* TONI ISEMAN 6,023 25.4%
EMANUEL PATRASCU 3,819 16.1%

Patrascu could be classified as the candidate that has gotten the most out of the money that he has. His campaign fundraising numbers include $60,000 raised and $33,000 raised (I am including the loan because he has spent the money). His mail has been directly attacking Curry which is one of the main reasons that I think Curry is considered the front-runner by all candidates. Her is a look at some of the mail sent out by the Patrascu campaign courtesy of our blogger Marion Morrison:

AD 74 – Emanuel Patrascu Attacks Keith Curry on High Speed Rail
AD 74 – Curry and Patrascu Both Positive
AD 74 Mail – Curry Postive and Patrascu Negative

Patrascu is in a dead heat with Matt Harper for the second place slot and I will give my reasoning for this later in this post.

Matthew Harper

Matthew Harper is considered the conservative darling in this race by many due to his years of activism in the Republican Party of Orange County. It appears that both Keith Curry and Emanuel Patrascu are ignoring him with most of their negative mail being focused on each other.

Harper has hold office for a number of years and has had a lot of success on the ballot. Let’s take a look at his electoral history:

Results from November 2012 (General Election):

CITY OF HUNTINGTON BEACH Member, City Council
Number To Vote For: 4
Completed Precincts: 152 of 152
Vote Count Percentage
CONNIE BOARDMAN 20,019 9.4%
* JOE CARCHIO 18,523 8.7%
MATTHEW HARPER 15,886 7.5%
JOE SHAW 14,585 6.9%
BARBARA DELGLEIZE 14,171 6.7%
BLAIR FARLEY 13,932 6.5%
BILLY O’CONNELL 13,175 6.2%
JIM KATAPODIS 13,100 6.2%
FRED J. SPEAKER 11,183 5.3%
DAN KALMICK 10,775 5.1%
NORM WESTWELL 10,187 4.8%
BILL RORICK 9,835 4.6%
HEATHER GROW 9,624 4.5%
SHAWN ROSELIUS 7,628 3.6%
ERIK PETERSON 7,137 3.4%
BRUCE J. BRANDT 7,125 3.3%
LANDON FICHTNER 4,654 2.2%
ANDRISSA DOMINGUEZ 4,440 2.1%
WILLIAM GRUNWALD 3,652 1.7%
JOHN VON HOLLE 3,209 1.5%
BLAKE ROSE (W) 50 0.0%

Results from November 2002 (General Election):

Huntington Beach Union High Sch Dist
Vote For: 3
Completed Precincts: 238 of 238
Vote Count Percentage
Matthew Harper 29,220 17.5%
Bonnie Castrey 27,605 16.5%
Brian Garland 26,242 15.7%
Rosemary Saylor 24,516 14.7%
Sylvia Garrett 17,739 10.6%
Jim Peters 12,052 7.2%
Sallie E. Dashiell 12,050 7.2%
Ted K. Tadayon 9,303 5.6%
Andrew Scott Patterson 8,495 5.1%

Harper has more name ID than both Curry and Patrascu but his fundraising numbers have been anemic at best. He has raised just $22,000 and again I am including his personal loan because he has spent it. This is a pretty large fundraising gap between himself and Patrascu.

With this fundraising gap in place it is a safe bet that Harper will likely not appear on any direct mail although he is on a decent amount of slate mailers including the always popular and effective Landslide Communications slate mailers. The biggest concern I have is that the Curry campaign has not hit him yet and this is a bad sign considering Curry has paid for polling data in this race.

In spite of my concerns I still consider Harper to be in a dead heat with Patrascu and I will explain why at the end of this post.

Anila Ali

In any normal election I would predict the Democrat to consolidate enough support to advance to November but Ali is likely going to lose because Karina Onofre is also running as a Democrat. Ali has never run for office before and has no name ID in this district. She has raised $39,000 which is more than both Onofre and Harper but I just don’t think it is enough to overcome both Onofre and the Democratic registration disadvantage.

Prediction Time

Before I make my prediction I want to point out where the ballots that have been returned are coming from:

14,961 ballots have been returned so far in AD 74
3,500 ballots from Newport beach (approximately)
3,000 ballots from Huntington Beach (approximately)
2,000 ballots from Laguna Woods (approximately)
2,000 ballots from Costa Mesa (approximately)
1,000 ballots from Laguna Beach (approximately)

Based on the high turnout from Huntington Beach I am giving Harper a fighting chance to advance to November although I am still leaning towards Patrascu.

Based on all of the above factors and analysis, I predict that the candidates who advance to November will be a repeat of AD 72, an All-Republican run-off:

Keith Curry (R) in 1st and Toss-Up Between Emanuel Patrascu and Matthew Harper (R) for 2nd

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

AD74 Watch: Karina Onofre Channels Napoleon Dynamite

Posted by Scott Carpenter on May 21, 2014

Being that I don’t live in Assembly District 74 I haven’t be privileged to receive the onslaught of mailers from the various candidates in the race. I’ve relied largely on this blog and Allan Bartlett’s blog  for info on the race. I did post previously on this race because of the pure entertainment value the “Feet to the Fire” forum provided. But since then all I have been able to see is the mailers and slates being posted, and of course the various articles about Karina Onofre trying to bring the Clippers to Orange County. As a Clipper fan I would love that, however I don’t see it as a realistic possibility at least in the next five years.

That was until a former co-worker of mine, sent me a message on facebook: “Scott, did you see the latest? Leadership – I will help you reach your dreams! That’s part of Karina “Karina” Onofre’s platform now” I immediately though “WHAT? THAT’S FROM NAPOLEON DYNAMITE!” So I had to see for myself, and sure enough on her facebook page there it is, right in her platform on her cover photo in the third bullet point:

Screen Shot 2014-05-20 at 11.57.09 PM

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For those of you who don’t remember the movie, its from Napoleon’s buddy Pedro’s famous speech while running for Student Body President.

Part of me is really glad SOMEBODY finally incorporated Pedro’s famous tag line into an actual political campaign, candidates have been missing out on this piece of gold for nearly a decade!

 

 

 

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Prepare to be Entertained: The AD 74 “Feet to the Fire” Candidate Forum

Posted by Scott Carpenter on May 9, 2014

Chris Nguyen gave a great play by play on the lively forum that featured the candidates running for Assembly District 74. After reading it and following tweets by Allan Bartlett, I HAD to see the video. Lucky for me Jack Wu had tipped me off that the event had been taped. Last night I came across the YouTube video and watched the whole thing. It is incredibly entertaining…I’ll leave it at this: it was very lively and you will be able to see why.

 

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

Live from the 74th Assembly District Candidate Forum

Posted by Chris Nguyen on April 17, 2014

We’re live from the AD-74 candidate forum in the 2014 Feet to the Fire Forum series, sponsored by the Orange County Register, the Daily Pilot, and the Voice of OC.

Emceed by Barbara Venezia of the Orange County Register and John Canalis of the Daily Pilot, the media panel consists of Jack Wu of the Orange County Register, Alicia Lopez of the Daily Pilot, and Norberto Santana, Jr. of the Voice of OC.

All five candidates are here and are seated in this order: Keith Curry (R), Karina Onofre (D), Matthew Harper (R), Anila Ali (D), and Emanuel Patrascu (R).

7:07 PM: Venezia asks if the candidates think that they’re good politicians. Harper, Patrascu, and Ali raise their hands while Curry and Onofre do not. Venezia then asks Curry and Onofre why they didn’t think they were good politicians when they’re running for an office that, by definition, is a politician.

Curry says there need to be more businesspeople and problem-solvers, not political people searching for their next job.

Onofre says, “I agree with Keith Curry.” She says the third definition of politician in Webster’s is negative. She says the Legislature needs more businesspeople.

Ali says forums like this can give politicians a good name.

Venezia says money is necessary to tell voters what they stand for. She asks the candidates how much they’ve each raised for their campaigns, excluding personal loans.

Patrascu says he’s raised $100,000.

Ali says she’s raised $20,000-$25,000.

Harper says he’s raised less than $50,000. After being pushed by the media panel, he says $30,000-$50,000.

Onofre says $11,000.

Curry says $150,000, plus a $100,000 personal loan that he’ll spend.

Wu asks incredulously if Harper raised between $24,000-$44,000 in one month.

Harper says yes.

Wu asks what Harper’s cash on hand is.

Harper says issues matter, not money.

Wu asks Harper how will people know his stances on the issues if he can’t get his message out.

Harper points to forums like this as a way to get his message out.

Wu reiterates his point.

Curry says donations are an indicator of community support. He has 200+ donors. He says it’s difficult to believe Harper raised $24,000-$44,000 since Harper hasn’t reported any $1,000+ contributions since $1,000+ contributions require 24 hour reporting.

Santana asks what’s the point of sending another Republican to a Democrat-controlled Sacramento. He asks what can a Republican accomplish in the Legislature.

Curry says he can represent his district. He says 1974 and 1992 have demonstrated big party shifts can occur unexpectedly. He points to issues like taxes and education, where Republicans can win.

Wu reiterates Santana’s point.

Patrascu speaks of bringing a more diverse set of people, but people who oppose fee increases. He says that Curry has voted for 100+ fee increases.

Wu reiterates his point and Santana’s point.

Ali says she can get money from Sacramento because she is a Democrat and will have a seat at the table.

Harper says Republicans should not surrender and should build towards a majority.

There’s lots of cross-talk until Venezia shuts it down.

Onofre says she’s a Democrat female Latina conservative.

Ali jumps in to say she’s the sole Democrat to be endorsed by the state party.

Onofre says she can work across the aisle.

Ali says Onofre’s definitely proven that, pointing to Onofre’s party-switching.

Wu points out that Onofre sought the California Young Republican Federation endorsement days before she reregistered as a Democrat.

Onofre says Republicans don’t respect women and minorities.

Wu says he’s a minority Republican.

Onofre says she will stay a Democrat, with the laughter coming all her opponents, the reporters, and the audience.

Canalis asks what are Onofre’s conservative beliefs.

Onofre says she is a businesswoman and believes in the state spending within its means. She says she’s pro-choice.

Ali says Onofre said she was pro-life in a Tea Party flyer in this campaign.

Onofre says she represents the majority and that she is pro-choice.

Ali says she is endorsed by the Democratic Party.

Onofre calls Ali “girl” as she argues that the Democratic Party endorsed before Onofre became a Democrat.

Lopez asks if the candidates can work across the aisle.

Harper points to his work with his Council colleagues, who range from conservative Republicans to liberal Democrats.

Lopez asks about Harper’s Council record and if he believes there’s any role for government in environmental regulations.

Harper points to population growth, waste/recycling issues, and transportation. He says government should be curbed and smaller. He says government shouldn’t ban bonfires.

Santana asks about Harper’s jobs working for Supervisor Janet Nguyen and for OC Waste & Recycling in a position that did not exist until filled by Harper. He asks if this is ideologically inconsistent with smaller government.

Harper says the question is irrelevant and that it’s not a policy question.

Santana says it is relevant and that Harper grew government.

Harper says he left the County last year. He says OC Waste & Recycling is an enterprise fund. He says his duties at OC Waste & Recycling were necessary PIO (Public Information Officer) and PRA (Public Records Act) functions.

Venezia asks about Curry’s experience on the City Council, and specifically, the cost of Newport Beach City Hall.

Curry says he led the opposition to building Newport Beach City Hall in its new location, but the voters – knowing it would cost $100 million – voted to put it there. He points to a library expansion, a pedestrian walkway, and a dog park that were built as part of the City Hall project. He says the senior center was built in 3 years while Harper has a sign in a dirt field because Harper opposes construction bonds.

Patrascu says the City Hall project soared from $40 million to $230 million with the bonds. He compares it to buying a Louis Vuitton bag with a taxpayer-financed loan.

Curry asks what Patrascu would have cut from the City Hall project.

Patrascu says he would have cut the extra parking lot spaces.

Curry says that’s less than $200,000.

Patrascu says the spaces are rarely full.

Several in the audience shout the lot was full today.

Curry says he is a problem-solver, not an ideologue, pointing at Harper and Patrascu.

Ali says that it is important to build infrastructure for a global economy. She says she opposes tax increases and supports tax credits for small business. She says she will be more effective as a member of the majority party, the Democrats.

Harper points to Tom Daly, Sharon Quirk-Silva, and Jose Solorio as Assembly Democrats from Orange County. He says Solorio blew it on the budget.

Ali says there’s a surplus under a Democratic Governor.

Wu says the Governor raised taxes in Prop 30.

Venezia asks if Ali opposed Prop 30.

Ali says she would not vote for any tax increases.

Venezia says Onofre and Ali have never held public office, like City Council, to understand how politics work and asks if they’re qualified.

Ali says she has been on the front lines teaching students. She says she’s an Irvine City Commissioner. She says her grandmother was an Indian Assemblywoman.

Venezia asks Curry to weigh in.

Curry points to his record in Newport Beach. He says the best man in Patrascu’s wedding was a Democratic Assemblyman who’s helped fundraise for Patrascu. Curry says Republicans shouldn’t rely on Democrats for fundraising.

Canalis asks Ali about the Prop 30 tax increases again, in light of her being a public school teacher.

Ali says she supported Prop 30 and that taxes are now high enough to produce a budget surplus.

Harper says it is brave of Ali to oppose the split-roll for property taxes, which she did in prior forums. Harper says he, Patrascu, and Curry share Ali’s position on the split-roll. Harper says he doesn’t know Onofre’s position, as she has not appeared at prior forums.

Onofre says she has been busy with her tax preparation business up until April 15, so that’s why she missed prior forums.

Santana says OC gets $0.06 per $1.00 in property tax money from Sacramento. He asks how can other counties be persuaded to send more money to rich OC.

Ali says she would be in the majority party.

Santana asks for specifics.

Ali says Washington, DC needs to give more money to California.

Santana asks for specifics.

Ali talks about private-public partnerships.

Santana asks for specifics.

Curry points to post-Prop 13 education funding formulas drafted by Willie Brown. He says the formula benefits Santa Ana but harms Irvine. He proposes building coalitions to recraft the formula because post-1979 housing developments aren’t being accounted for.

Santana asks how this can be done.

Harper suggests a ballot measure.

Patrascu says that Republicans need to work across the aisle to get things done. He says he didn’t check his best friend from seventh grade’s party affiliation (referencing his best man alwho had been earlier attacked by Curry). He says again that people need friends across the aisle to get things done.

Santana asks about Patrascu’s statement opposing Larry Agran’s proposal for a friendship city with a city in Communist Vietnam due to its human rights violations. He says Assemblyman Travis Allen, Patrascu’s boss, went on a junket to Communist China. He asks Patrascu what is the difference between Vietnamese Communists and Chinese Communists.

Patrascu says the question needs to be asked of Allen and that Patrascu wouldn’t have gone on the trip.

Ali says she believes in people-to-people diplomacy, pointing to Obama’s efforts in Russia.

Wu asks about Ali or Onofre’s abilty to win. He asks about Democratic registration in AD-74.

Ali says Democratic registration is growing but declines to state a number.

Someone jumps in and says it’s 29%.

Wu asks how can a Democrat win or even make the November runoff when two female Democrats are running.

Ali talks about precinct walking and turning out the Democratic vote.

Wu asks how she can send mail with the $25,000 she’s raised, noting that he knows city council candidates who have raised more.

Ali says issues matter.

Onofre says she will use aggressive voter registration of Latinos to win.

Venezia asks if Onofre believes she will simply win the Latino vote solely because she’s a Latina.

Onofre says voters will vote for someone who looks like them.

Venezia says qualifications matter, not what people look like.

Onofre says she has run several businesses and has two Bachelor’s degrees. She criticizes the audience for laughing at her.

Harper says experience is important. He says voting records prove what a candidate stands for.

Lopez asks Patrascu about his experience with Travis Allen painting the public perception of Patrascu.

Patrascu says he’s running because he believes in smaller government. He says the 1994 Contract with America is a good example. He says Republicans cannot just say no, Republicans must stand for something. He says he hasn’t just worked for Allen, as he owns a consulting firm, worked for Senator Tom Harman, and has run several campaigns.

Canalis asks the Republicans for specific legislation they could get passed in the Democrat-controlled Legislature.

Harper says he could pass a bill protecting beach bonfire rings, which he says Curry would oppose.

Curry says his position on such a bill would depend on how it’s written. He says bonfires do pose a scientifically-proven health risk and that the decision should be made by City Councils, not the State or AQMD. He says state bureaucrats should not decide the fate of the bonfires and that it should be decided locally instead.

Patrascu says he just had his two-year-old son’s first bonfire. He points to having helped write Allen’s bill, which simply bans AQMD from banning bonfires. He says Curry believes gangbangers have bonfires, and Patrascu says he himself has held bonfires with his church.

Ali says her son enjoys bonfires. She wants a compromise between environmentalists and bonfire supporters, such as gas bonfires, like Newport Beach proposed.

Onofre says she agrees with Curry and Ali. She says Newport Beach has properly regulated bonfires.

Curry says his position has been misrepresented.

Patrascu says Curry is arguing semantics. He says Newport Beach supported AQMD’s decision.

Venezia asks if climate change is real or not: yes or no?

Patrascu equivocates.

Ali says yes.

Harper says yes, it does, but it’s not man-made.

Onofre says yes.

Curry says no.

Venezia asks if the candidates support medical marijuana: yes or no?

Patrascu says yes.

Ali says yes.

Harper says no.

Onofre says yes.

Curry says no.

The forum is over.

Wow, the Feet to the Fire Forum for AD-74 moved quick. This blogger kept up, but just barely. Most candidate forums are easy to liveblog, but this was a speedy challenge.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | 5 Comments »

AD-74: Curry Dominates Fundraising, Patrascu Distant Second, Harper Spends All on Slates

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 26, 2014

Well, it’s that time of the election cycle again: campaign finance reports are out. OC Political will be doing our in-depth analysis to help you get past the campaigns’ spin on the numbers.  First on the docket is the race for AD-74 to replace Allan Mansoor, who is leaving the Assembly to run for the 2nd District Supervisor’s seat, being vacated by the termed out John Moorlach.  AD-74 consists of Costa Mesa, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, Newport Beach, the southern half of Huntington Beach, and portions of Irvine.

Harper, Curry, Patrascu

The three Republican candidates in AD-74: Matthew Harper, Keith D. Curry, and Emanuel Patrascu.

There are three declared Republican candidates in AD-74: Huntington Beach Mayor Matthew Harper, Businessman/Newport Beach Councilman Keith D. Curry, and Assemblyman Travis Allen’s District Director Emanuel Patrascu, an Orange County business owner.  H&R Block Franchise Associate Karina Onofre pulled papers as a Republican but filed them as a Democrat, so she’s on the ballot as a Democrat. Middle School Teacher Anila Ali, who has been a Democrat since she became a U.S. citizen in 2008, will also be on the ballot.  (For those wondering, Onofre was a Republican for 20 months, from July 2012-March 2014.  She has been a Democrat for years, other than during those 20 months.)

When OC Political analyzed the numbers for the end of the 2013 reporting, AD-74 was called the “Land of Small Warchests” in the post. Since then, Curry put his foot on the gas, and Patrascu stepped it up a bit, so those two are posting much stronger numbers (though still far behind races in other Assembly districts, but at the end of the day, to win this race, AD-74 only needs to worry about AD-74).  The other three candidates’ warchests remain rather small, however.

Before I start in on the numbers, it’s time to attack the $100,000 paper tiger loans.  We’ve been attacking the fiction of the $100,000 loans for months on OC Political.  (This July post is probably the seminal post on the issue, though it wasn’t until this August post that the paper tiger name was attached.)  In essence, these $100,000 paper tiger loans are loans candidates make to artificially inflate their campaign finance numbers to impress donors and scare opponents.  The reason $100,000 is the figure used is that’s the most a candidate can loan their own campaign and still get the money back.  Any amount the candidate gives above $100,000 is forever donated to the campaign under state law.  In AD-74, Republican Curry and Democrat Onofre gave their own campaigns $100,000 paper tiger loans.  It also appears Republican Patrascu gave his campaign a smaller paper tiger loan of $29,700.  Republican Harper has actually spent his negligible $4,100 loan.

Curry had a slow start to 2013, but of course he declared his entry in the race just three weeks before Christmas.  In the prior post on AD-74 warchests, I asked, ” If Curry can continue his pace of $21,200 per month, he will quickly amass the largest warchest in AD-74.  However, many candidates find their fundraising slows down after an initial burst after their campaigns launch when they pick up their low-hanging fruit donors; can Curry defy the odds?”  The answer is yes, he defied the odds.  In this latest reporting period, Curry raised $32,871 per month.

Curry added $83,768 this reporting period to his $21,200 from 2013, making him the first AD-74 candidate to break the $100,000 barrier in funds raised, with $104,968 in the course of his campaign.  Curry transferred a negligible $6,490 from his city council campaign account in 2013, but transferred nothing this reporting period.  He also gave himself one of those $100,000 paper tiger loans that we expect he won’t spend.  Curry spent $32,271 on a healthy mix of items, including campaign literature, slate mailers, fundraising, ballot filing fees, and consultant fees.  He has no unpaid bills.  Even after subtracting out his loans, Curry still has $78,506 cash-on-hand.

Patrascu added $25,679 in this reporting period to his $35,395 haul from 2013, bringing his total contributions to $60,974.  He made no transfers.  He has $29,700 in loans.  He was incredibly tight-fisted with his expenditures, spending only $5,098, all of went to fundraising expenses, campaign treasurer expenses, and ballot filing fees.  He has no unpaid bills.  After subtracting out his loans, Patrascu still has $54,021 cash-on-hand.

Harper only raised $2,150 in this reporting period ($1,900 from Rainbow Disposal and $250 from attorney Dave Bartels), adding to the $4,100 he raised in 2013 from Karen Harper last year, leaving Harper with $6,250 raised.  He transferred in $11,150 from his City Council account into his Assembly account, all during this reporting period.  He loaned himself $4,100.  He spent $15,674, with $13,700 going to Jim Lacy’s Landslide Communications slates, $1,906 going to his treasurer Dave Bauer for either campaign literature or treasurer fees, and $68 in small unitemized expenditures.  He has $17,763 in unpaid bills, with $13,700 on his credit card to pay for Lacy’s Landslide slates, $4,028 on his credit card to pay ballot filing fees, another $1,927 in small unitemized unpaid bills, and $35 on his credit card to pay for small office expenses.  After subtracting out the loans and accounting for his unpaid bills, Harper is $19,940 in debt.

The Democrats are easy to summarize.  Ali has not yet hit the $25,000 mark to require online campaign finance filing.  Onofre gave herself a $100,000 paper tiger loan.  She spent nothing and transferred nothing.  She has a single $100 contribution from Republican CD-45 candidate Greg Raths; from the date of the contribution, Onofre was still a Republican at the time.  I imagine Raths will be asking for his $100 back since Onofre has become a Democrat.

For visual learners:

Candidate 2013
Contributions
1/1/14-3/17/14
Contributions
Total
Contributions
Transfers Candidate
Loans
Unpaid
Bills
Expenditures Cash on Hand
(COH)
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
COH Minus
Unpaid Bills
& Loans
Harper $4,100 $2,150 $6,250 $11,150 $4,100 $17,763 $15,674 $1,923 -($15,840) -($19,940)
Curry $21,200 $83,768 $104,968 $6,490 $100,000 $0 $32,271 $178,506 $178,506 $78,506
Patrascu $35,295 $25,679 $60,974 $0 $29,700 $0 $5,098 $83,721 $83,721 $54,021
Onofre $100 N/A $100 $0 $100,000 $0 $0 $100,100 $100,100 $100
Ali N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Notes: Figures may be off by one dollar due to rounding.

Campaign finance reports for January 1-March 17, 2014 were due Monday.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

 
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