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Feeling Lucky! Newest California Lottery Winners: Webb, Garcia, Varaseth, Walters, Norby, Avalos, Daly, Allen, Harkey, Daigle, Nguyen, Spitzer, Downing, Night, Dumitru, Dyrud, Nagel, Anderson, Aiken

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 16, 2012

LotteryYesterday afternoon, the newest winners of the California lottery were announced: Businessman John Webb, Businessman Pat Garcia, Businessman Ron Varaseth, Senator Mimi Walters, Assemblyman Chris Norby, Perennial candidate Christina Avalos, Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly, Businessman Travis Allen, Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, Supervisor Janet Nguyen, former Supervisor/Assemblyman Todd Spitzer, Businesswoman Karla Downing, Central Committee Member Baron Night, Orange Councilman Jon Dumitru, Central Committee Member Gwen Dyrud, Central Committee Member Steve Nagel, San Clemente Planning Commissioner Nesa Anderson, and Office Clerk Jon Aiken.

No, these 19 people are not splitting a $200,000,000 jackpot.  They won the Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery.

What’s the candidate order lottery, you ask?

Well, California law requires a lottery to determine the order of candidates on the ballot.  Why does this law exist?  Studies of the primacy effect showed the candidate at the top of the ballot gains as much as a 5% increase in votes.  Consequently, in 1975, California legislators adopted a law mandating an end to the alphabetical listing of candidates (likely to the chagrin of Sam Aanestad and Dick Ackerman but the joy of Mary Young and Ed Zschau) and requiring a lottery before each election.

The Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery has determined the alphabet for the June primary to be UNADIVXWQGOZLTRKSJHMCBFPYE.

This applies to most races on the ballot, excluding races that cross county lines (for OC, these would be CD-38, CD-39, CD-47, CD-49, SD-29, and AD-55).

The primacy effect is weaker when there are fewer candidates on the ballot, and when there are higher-profile campaigns.  Being at the top of the ballot is most valuable for low-profile campaigns with large numbers of candidates.  That means that of the 19 people I listed above, the biggest winners in this lottery are the Central Committee candidates, so the biggest congratulations goes to the following Republican Central Committee Candidates for their 5% vote bonus:

  • 55th District: Karla Downing, Small Business Owner (1st of 10 candidates)
  • 65th District: Baron Night, Incumbent (1st of 11 candidates)
  • 68th District: Jon Dumitru, City Councilman (1st of 18 candidates)
  • 69th District: Gwen A. Dyrud, Appointed Incumbent (1st of 10 candidates)
  • 72nd District: Steve A. Nagel, Incumbent (1st of 14 candidates)
  • 73rd District: Nesa Anderson, Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman (1st of a stunning 22 candidates)
  • 74th District: Jon Aiken, Office Clerk (1st of 16 candidates)

For the races that cross county lines, each county does its own lottery, so here are the OC Registrar’s lottery results: DMNESVTUHKWGXFCIQYAORZPLJB.

Congratulations to these candidates who won the Registrar’s lottery and will appear at the top of the ballot in the Orange County portions of their districts:

  • 38th Congressional District: Linda Sanchez (D), United States Representative (1st of 3)
  • 39th Congressional District: D’Marie Mulattieri (DCorrection: NPP), Community Volunteer (1st of 3)
  • 47th Congressional District: Gary DeLong (R), Local Small Businessman (1st of 8)
  • 49th Congressional District: Albin Novinec (NPP), United States Marine (1st of 4)
  • 29th Senate District: Greg Diamond (D), Workers’ Rights Attorney (1st of 2)
  • 55th Assembly District: Curt Hagman (R), Member of the State Assembly (1st of 2)

You would think that with electronic voting now, the names could be randomized for every poll voter (obviously, we’d still need the lottery for absentee voters).

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working for Assemblyman Chris Norby, one of the lottery winners, as the letter N came in second in the alphabet behind U, though no one with a last name starting with U is running in all of Orange County.)

Posted in 29th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

Filing Recap: OC Dems’ Worst-Case Scenario Thanks to OCGOP Coups; AD-72 in Disarray; Spitzer, Pauly, & Rocco; Fullerton Recall Lineup Set; State Senate Races

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 12, 2012

Whole Lot of Candidates

Robert Hammond, Tom Daly, Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, Paco Barragan, Long Pham, Troy Edgar, Travis Allen, Joe Dovinh, Allan Mansoor, Leslie Daigle, Robert Rush, Albert Ayala, Todd Spitzer, Deborah Pauly, Janet Nguyen, and Steve Rocco. Not pictured for space considerations: Matt Harper, Tyler Diep, Bob Huff, Greg Diamond, Mimi Walters, Steve Young, and the 13 Fullerton Recall Candidates

Friday was such a busy candidate filing day that we still haven’t finished all our coverage of candidate filing action here on OC Political, but for those of you who weren’t reading over the weekend, here’s a quick rundown/annotated table of contents of what we’ve covered so far:

The big news that dominated our coverage was the AD-69/AD-72/OCBE chaos:

  • OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario Comes True: Coups Benefit Republicans in AD-69 & AD-74
    Republicans had long feared an all-Republican battle between Assemblyman Allan Mansoor and Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, which would eat up Republican human and financial resources in both June and November.  There were further fears that Democrats would cast their votes for Daigle to oust the more conservative Mansoor.  These fears proved unfounded when Democrat Robert Rush qualified for the ballot.
    However, the scenario Republicans feared in AD-74 became the scenario Democrats face in AD-69.  Republican Robert Hammond pulled out of the AD-69 race, leaving four Democrats to face only each other in a bloody intra-party battle in June.  Then the top two of those four will face each other again in a bloody intra-party battle in November.  AD-69 will eat up Democratic human and financial resources in November when they could have been spending their time, energy, and money battling Republicans.
    (Prop 14 made this possible by eliminating traditional primaries, and requiring the top two candidates from the June primary to advance to the November general election, even if they’re from the same party, even if someone broke 50% in June, and even if there were only two candidates in June.)
  • Hammond Enters OCBE Race & Withdraws from AD-69, Producing OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario
    Republican Robert Hammond withdrew from the AD-69 race to enter the race for Orange County Board of Education, Trustee Area 1.  It was Hammond’s withdrawal from AD-69 that left Democrats in a bloody intra-party war in November, locking up Democratic resources to attack Democrats instead of Republicans.  OCBE 1 is held by conservative Republican Long Pham, who made all this possible by vacating his seat to run for AD-72.
  • AD-72: Five Candidates (Two Democrats, Three Republicans) Running
    The Republicans in the AD-72 race are OCBE Trustee Long Pham, Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar, and Huntington Beach Businessman Travis Allen.  The Democrats are Garden Grove Planning Commissioner Joe Dovinh and 89-year-old Tea Party Democrat Albert Ayala.
  • Matt Harper opts out of 72 AD race
    Not among the candidates was Huntington Beach Councilman Matt Harper who announced his withdrawal on the final day of filing.  Just five weeks ago, the Republican line-up in AD-72 was expected to be Harper, Long Pham, and Westminster Councilman Tyler Diep.  Now Harper and Diep are out, replaced by Troy Edgar and Travis Allen.
  • Bizarre Travis Allen Strategy in AD-72: Alienate Non-Huntington Beach Voters and Declare Los Alamitos to Be “Foreign”
    With Matt Harper out and Travis Allen jumping in the race in the final days of filing, Allen certainly made a splash, with a pair of bizarre press releases that attacked Harper for endorsing “Foreign Candidate” Troy Edgar.

After all the AD-69/AD-72/OCBE chaos, how could we forget the legendary Spitzer-Pauly showdown?  And Steve Rocco!

  • Board of Supervisors: Two Crazy Races on the Docket
    The well-anticipated fiery battle for the Third Supervisorial District is proceeding as expected, with former Assemblyman/Supervisor Todd Spitzer and Villa Park Councilwoman Deborah Pauly facing off.  I don’t think Supervisor Janet Nguyen will object to being known as the boring candidate in her race, as her sole challenger is convicted ketchup thief Steve Rocco.  (For the record, I am not related to Supervisor Nguyen. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.)

Wait, there’s more!  The Fullerton Recall!

  • Battle for Fullerton: The Field is Set
    Thirteen candidates have filed for the three seats up for recall. Rick Alvarez (R), Janes Rands (G), Greg Sebourn (R), and Paula Williams (D) have filed to replace Don Bankhead.  Dorothy A. Birsic (R), Glenn P. Georgieff (D), Matthew Hakim (D), Travis Kiger (R), and Roberta Reid (NPP) have filed to replace Dick Jones.  Doug Chaffee (D), Barry Levinson (R), Sean Paden (R), and Matthew Rowe (NPP) have filed to replace Pat McKinley.

Still more…

We’re still not done with our candidate filing coverage, but at least, now, dear reader, you’re caught up.

I give South OC the award for most boring region in the 2012 Primary.  Things are much more interesting in the North OC and Central OC campaigns.  Fear not, South OC, I anticipate fun from you in the 2014 Primary to replace termed-out Supervisor Pat Bates unless Senator Mimi Walters decides to ruin it all by entering and clearing the field for herself, assuming Assemblywoman Diane Harkey continues on her path to the Board of Equalization.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 3rd Supervisorial District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District, Fullerton, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, Los Alamitos, Orange County Board of Education, Rossmoor, Santa Ana, Seal Beach | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

State Senate Races: Republican Senators Face Democrat Attorneys

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 10, 2012

29th Senate District and 37th Senate DistrictDue to redistricting, Orange County will be part of five Senate districts: the 29th, 32nd, 34th, 36th, and 37th.  While the 32nd, 34th, and 36th won’t be up until 2014, this year’s ballot will feature the 29th and 37th Senate District races.

SD-29

In SD-29, the candidates are:

  • Robert “Bob” Huff (R) – Lawmaker/Business Owner
  • Greg Diamond (D) – Workers’ Rights Attorney

Huff, a resident of LA County, is the current Senate Republican Leader.  Diamond is an Orange County attorney, who is also a blogger for Orange Juice and serves as a liaison for Occupy Orange County.

SD-29 includes North Orange County, southeastern Los Angeles County, and the City of Chino Hills in San Bernardino County.  The LA County portion of SD-29 consists of the whole cities of Diamond Bar, Rowland Heights, and Walnut, along with portions of the City of Industry and West Covina.  The OC portion of SD-29 consists of the whole cities of Brea, Cypress, Fullerton, La Habra, Placentia, Stanton, and Yorba Linda, along with portions of Anaheim and Buena Park.

SD-37

In SD-37, the candidates are:

Walters is Vice Chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee.  Young is an attorney, who ran against John Campbell for Congress three times.

SD-37 is entirely inside Orange County and consists of the whole cities of Costa Mesa, Irvine, Laguna Beach, Laguna Woods, Lake Forest, Newport Beach, Tustin, and Villa Park, along with Anaheim Hills and North Tustin, as well as portions of Anaheim (east of the 57 freeway), most of Orange (east of the 57 freeway), and half of Huntington Beach (south of Talbert Avenue and Seapoint Avenue).

Posted in 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District | Tagged: , , , | 15 Comments »

Total Durkee Embezzlement: $1.4-$1.7 Million from Correa & Solorio; Combined Cash on Hand Far Less Than Nguyen

Posted by Chris Nguyen on February 2, 2012

It had been well-reported in the Fall that Kinde Durkee is charged with embezzling “hundreds of thousands of dollars” from Senator Lou Correa and over $677,000 from Assemblyman Jose Solorio.  Well, now we know the totals: over $1.7 million between the two.

According to Solorio’s campaign finance filings from his four accounts, he lost $721,176, and another $154,053 is being held by the LA Superior Court pending resolution of the Durkee case.  This means Solorio’s losses could be as much as $875,229.  This leaves Solorio with $124,820 cash on hand.  However, he has $13,489 in unpaid bills, which leaves him with just $111,331.

From Correa’s campaign finance filings from his two accounts, he lost $795,739, and another $68,744 is being held by the LA Superior Court pending resolution of the Durkee case.  This means Correa’s losses could be as much as $864,483.  This leaves Correa with $52,683 cash on hand.  However, he has $2,346 in unpaid bills, which leaves him with $50,337. (He did set up a third account, which was a legal defense fund, in September after Durkee was charged, but that account only has a $200 personal loan from Correa).

The unintentional big winner in this is Supervisor Janet Nguyen.  Correa and Solorio are Nguyen’s two most formidable potential challengers.

Nguyen has $282,577 cash on hand and $11,826 in unpaid bills, leaving her with $270,751.  Solorio and Correa have $161,668 combined.

For visual learners:

Embezzled Held By
Court		 Cash on
Hand		 Unpaid
Bills
Solorio $721,176 $154,053 $124,820 $13,489
Correa $795,739 $68,744 $52,683 $2,346
Nguyen $0 $0 $282,577 $11,826

For the record, I am not related to Supervisor Nguyen. The last name Nguyen is held by 36% of Vietnamese people.

Posted in 1st Supervisorial District, 34th Senate District, Fundraising | Tagged: , , , | 6 Comments »

New Senate Districts Weaken Statewide GOP, Strengthens OC GOP

Posted by Chris Nguyen on January 30, 2012

On Friday, the California Supreme Court ruled that this year’s elections will go with the maps created by the Citizen’s Redistricting Commission.  This bodes ill for Republicans statewide but could boost the strength of Republicans in Orange County.  Examining the great district-by-district numbers put together by Matt Rexroad, Chandra Sharma, and the rest of the Meridian Pacific team, it appears to me that there are 11 safe Republican districts, 25 safe Democrat districts, and 4 swing districts.

To maintain the status quo, Republicans have to capture all 4 swing seats: the 5th (Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus Counties), 27th (LA & Ventura Counties), 31st (Riverside County), and 34th (Orange County).  To reach a 2/3 majority to raise taxes and wreak other havoc on California, Democrats only need to capture half the swing seats.  The 27th is the only one where a sitting Senator (Democrat Fran Pavley) is seeking the seat.  The other three are wide open.

The 5th, 27th, and 31st will all be on the ballot this year.  The 34th will be on the ballot in 2014.  More than 711,000 Californians have signed the petition to put the map on the ballot this November.  Whether the voters overturn the map or retain the map will likely have little effect on these four seats until at least 2016.  Whoever wins the 5th, 27th, and 31st will be able to retain their seats through at least 2016, and any new map would likely have little effect on the 34th, as the shape of that district is heavily controlled by federal Voting Rights Act requirements. Furthermore, Correa keeps the seat until 2014.

No seat is closer than the 34th right here in Orange County.  In the new 34th Senate District, held by termed out Democrat Lou Correa, Democrats hold a 0.6% registration advantage.  (In the old 34th Senate District, where Correa beat Lynn Daucher by 1.4% in 2006 and won re-election over Lucille Kring by 31.6% in 2010, Democrats held a 12% registration advantage.)  The Meridian guys have even dubbed the new 34th district “Open Republican” on their site.

Up for election in 2014, the SD-34 Republican nominee will very likely be either Supervisor Janet Nguyen or the new 72nd District Assemblyman (Tyler Diep or Matt Harper) and the Democrats’ nominee will very likely be either outgoing Assemblyman Jose Solorio or the new 69th District Assemblymember (Paco Barragan, Tom Daly, Michele Martinez, or Julio Perez).  If the new Assemblymembers go for it, they’d have to risk their Assembly seats after just one term in order to run for the Senate.  It would be a safe run for Nguyen and Solorio, as neither of them would be up for election in 2014. (For the record, I am not related to Supervisor Nguyen; 36% of Vietnamese people have the last name Nguyen.)

After 16 years in the hands of the Democrats, SD-34 could return to Republican control, producing the first all-Republican OC delegation to the State Senate since Rob Hurtt lost to Joe Dunn.

The new SD-34 includes:

  • Santa Ana (325,000 people)
  • Garden Grove (171,000 people)
  • 48% of northern Huntington Beach (91,000 people)
  • Westminster (90,000 people)
  • 20% of Central/Eastern Anaheim (68,000 people)
  • 13% of eastern Long Beach (61,000 people)
  • Fountain Valley (55,000 people)
  • Seal Beach (24,000 people)
  • Los Alamitos (11,000 people)
  • Rossmoor (10,000 people)
  • 7% of southwestern Orange (10,000 people)
  • Midway City (8,000 people)

Posted in 34th Senate District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

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