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California Republican Party’s Endorsements for OC: Royce, Campbell, Hayden, DeLong, Rohrabacher, Issa, Huff, Walters, Hagman, Norby, Wagner, Harkey, Mansoor

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 20, 2012

The California Republican Party has endorsed in most races for Congress, the State Senate, and the State Assembly.  Emami blogged about the CRP endorsement of Elizabeth Emken for the US Senate while I indirectly linked to the list of endorsements in this post (via CapitolAlert).

However, we never really discussed the state Republican Party endorsements here on OC Political, so here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s US Congressional delegation:

  • CD-39: Congressman Ed Royce (R-Fullerton) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
  • CD-45: Congressman John Campbell (R-Irvine) was endorsed over Small Business Owner John Webb.
    While the CRP endorsed Campbell, the OCGOP did not.
    I covered the OCGOP endorsement drama in this race here, and Emami covered it here.
  • CD-47: Long Beach Councilman Gary DeLong was endorsed over former Congressman Steve Kuykendall, an OC man named Steve Foley, and Small Business Owner Sanford Kahn.
    The Democrats running for this open seat are State Senator Alan Lowenthal, College Professor Peter Mathews, and inexplicably, a married couple are both running: Dr. Jay Shah and Charity President Usha Shah.  I’d pay to go to the Shah family dinner the night before the election.  It must be awkward to be one of the Shahs’ two adult sons; hope they live outside CD-47.
    As a legitimate swing district with no incumbent, this is one of the most interesting races involving Orange County.
  • CD-48: Congressman Dana Rohrabacher (R-Huntington Beach) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
  • CD-49: Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Vista) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.

Here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s State Senate delegation (in both cases, they’re the sole Republican running; I covered both those races here):

Here’s the CRP’s endorsements for OC’s State Assembly delegation:

  • AD-55: Assemblyman Curt Hagman (R-Chino Hills) was endorsed is the sole Republican running.
  • AD-65: Assemblyman Chris Norby (R-Fullerton) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
    Emami covered this race here.
  • AD-68: Assemblyman Don Wagner (R-Irvine) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.
    I did an article on his opponent, Christina Avalos (D-Orange), here.  Emami covered her here.
  • AD-69: No endorsement was made.  OC Eligibility Technician Jose Moreno is the sole Republican running.  I sort of covered him here.
  • AD-72: No endorsement was made.
    Los Alamitos Mayor Troy Edgar, OC Board of Education Trustee Long Pham, and Businessman Travis Allen are the three Republicans running for this open seat.
    Click here to see our various articles related to AD-72.
  • AD-73: Assemblywoman Diane Harkey (R-Dana Point) was endorsed and is the sole Republican running.

For the full list of all Congressional, State Senate, and State Assembly endorsements by the California Republican Party, click here.

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working in the office of Assemblyman Chris Norby, who was endorsed in AD-65.)

Posted in 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 45th Congressional District, 46th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 48th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 69th Assembly District, 72nd Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Norby Notes 5

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on March 18, 2012

Image
Norby Notes

March, 2012 | Issue 05

www.asm.ca.gov/Norby Assemblymember.Norby@assembly.ca.gov

My Bills

It’s a rainy week here in Sacramento. This is good news for the Sierra snowpack and the state’s water supply. I’m looking out my Capitol window at the umbrella-toting visitors, legislative staffers and lobbyists filing in for another day’s work.

I look, too, at a list of bills I’m introducing. They represent major policy initiatives and minor tweaks to existing codes. Before becoming law, all must pass through a gauntlet of committee hearings, floor votes and the Governor’s signature. Even those that don’t make it still initiate a dialogue over issues and make such future reforms likely. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 65th Assembly District | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

Assemblyman Curt Hagman Fights to Repeal Fire Tax

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on March 17, 2012

This came across the wire from Assemblyman Curt Hagman’s office…

Curt Hagman | District 60

Assemblyman Curt Hagman Fights to Repeal Fire Tax

I am pleased to join with my fellow Republicans in the Assembly in introducing Assembly Bill 1506, legislation that will repeal the unconstitutional Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 55th Assembly District | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Newport Beach Mayors Endorse Leslie Daigle For Assembly

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on March 16, 2012

This also came across the wore from the Leslie Daigle for Assembly campaign:


Newport Beach Mayors Endorse Leslie Daigle for Assembly 

City leaders cite need for change in Sacramento 

Newport Beach – Several former Newport Beach Mayors announced their endorsement of Leslie Daigle for State Assembly today. Daigle’s independence and willingness to challenge the status quo is gaining traction among leaders throughout out the District highlighted by today’s announcement. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Leslie Daigle Earns Support From Numerous Top Education Officials

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on March 16, 2012

This just came across the wire from the Leslie Daigle for Assemby campaign:

Leslie Daigle Earns Support FromNumerous

Top Education Officials

Mansoor Lacks Single Education Endorsement

Newport Beach – Education leaders in the Newport Mesa Unified School District, which over sees educaiton in both Newport Beach and Costa Mesa, have come out in overwhelming support of Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle’s candidacy for the 74th Assembly District. Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Local Governments Getting on Board to Support Harkey’s Lemon Law

Posted by Newsletter Reprint on March 16, 2012

This just came across the wire from the office of Assemblywoman Diane Harkey:

Local Governments Getting on Board to Support Harkey’s Lemon Law

SACRAMENTO – Joining with the Orange County Board of Supervisors and other local jurisdictions, the Orange City Council has voted unanimously to support AB 1455, the High Speed Rail Lemon Law, authored by Assemblywoman Diane Harkey (R-Dana Point) to repeal $9 billion in available Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 73rd Assembly District | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

Feeling Lucky! Newest California Lottery Winners: Webb, Garcia, Varaseth, Walters, Norby, Avalos, Daly, Allen, Harkey, Daigle, Nguyen, Spitzer, Downing, Night, Dumitru, Dyrud, Nagel, Anderson, Aiken

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 16, 2012

LotteryYesterday afternoon, the newest winners of the California lottery were announced: Businessman John Webb, Businessman Pat Garcia, Businessman Ron Varaseth, Senator Mimi Walters, Assemblyman Chris Norby, Perennial candidate Christina Avalos, Clerk-Recorder Tom Daly, Businessman Travis Allen, Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, Supervisor Janet Nguyen, former Supervisor/Assemblyman Todd Spitzer, Businesswoman Karla Downing, Central Committee Member Baron Night, Orange Councilman Jon Dumitru, Central Committee Member Gwen Dyrud, Central Committee Member Steve Nagel, San Clemente Planning Commissioner Nesa Anderson, and Office Clerk Jon Aiken.

No, these 19 people are not splitting a $200,000,000 jackpot.  They won the Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery.

What’s the candidate order lottery, you ask?

Well, California law requires a lottery to determine the order of candidates on the ballot.  Why does this law exist?  Studies of the primacy effect showed the candidate at the top of the ballot gains as much as a 5% increase in votes.  Consequently, in 1975, California legislators adopted a law mandating an end to the alphabetical listing of candidates (likely to the chagrin of Sam Aanestad and Dick Ackerman but the joy of Mary Young and Ed Zschau) and requiring a lottery before each election.

The Secretary of State’s candidate order lottery has determined the alphabet for the June primary to be UNADIVXWQGOZLTRKSJHMCBFPYE.

This applies to most races on the ballot, excluding races that cross county lines (for OC, these would be CD-38, CD-39, CD-47, CD-49, SD-29, and AD-55).

The primacy effect is weaker when there are fewer candidates on the ballot, and when there are higher-profile campaigns.  Being at the top of the ballot is most valuable for low-profile campaigns with large numbers of candidates.  That means that of the 19 people I listed above, the biggest winners in this lottery are the Central Committee candidates, so the biggest congratulations goes to the following Republican Central Committee Candidates for their 5% vote bonus:

  • 55th District: Karla Downing, Small Business Owner (1st of 10 candidates)
  • 65th District: Baron Night, Incumbent (1st of 11 candidates)
  • 68th District: Jon Dumitru, City Councilman (1st of 18 candidates)
  • 69th District: Gwen A. Dyrud, Appointed Incumbent (1st of 10 candidates)
  • 72nd District: Steve A. Nagel, Incumbent (1st of 14 candidates)
  • 73rd District: Nesa Anderson, Planning Commissioner/Businesswoman (1st of a stunning 22 candidates)
  • 74th District: Jon Aiken, Office Clerk (1st of 16 candidates)

For the races that cross county lines, each county does its own lottery, so here are the OC Registrar’s lottery results: DMNESVTUHKWGXFCIQYAORZPLJB.

Congratulations to these candidates who won the Registrar’s lottery and will appear at the top of the ballot in the Orange County portions of their districts:

  • 38th Congressional District: Linda Sanchez (D), United States Representative (1st of 3)
  • 39th Congressional District: D’Marie Mulattieri (DCorrection: NPP), Community Volunteer (1st of 3)
  • 47th Congressional District: Gary DeLong (R), Local Small Businessman (1st of 8)
  • 49th Congressional District: Albin Novinec (NPP), United States Marine (1st of 4)
  • 29th Senate District: Greg Diamond (D), Workers’ Rights Attorney (1st of 2)
  • 55th Assembly District: Curt Hagman (R), Member of the State Assembly (1st of 2)

You would think that with electronic voting now, the names could be randomized for every poll voter (obviously, we’d still need the lottery for absentee voters).

(In the interest of full disclosure, my day job is working for Assemblyman Chris Norby, one of the lottery winners, as the letter N came in second in the alphabet behind U, though no one with a last name starting with U is running in all of Orange County.)

Posted in 29th Senate District, 38th Congressional District, 39th Congressional District, 47th Congressional District, 49th Congressional District, 55th Assembly District, Republican Central Committee | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

OC Republicans Shoot Selves in Foot; OC Democrats’ Worst-Case Scenario Evaporates

Posted by Chris Nguyen on March 16, 2012

In a pre-Prop 14 world, it made absolute good sense to contest every single partisan race.  Each qualified party was guaranteed exactly one candidate on the November ballot.

Prop 14 changed all that.  The top two candidates, regardless of party and regardless of whether anyone breaks 50%, advance to the November ballot.  If the top two candidates were members of the same party, presumably the more moderate candidate would win.  If there were two Democrats, the less liberal one would win thanks to Republican voters.  If there were two Republicans, the less conservative one would win thanks to Democratic voters.  Furthermore, the party with two candidates facing off in November would then spend a fortune in an intraparty battle, freeing the excluded party to spend its human and financial resources elsewhere.

In Orange County:

  • Republicans feared a November bloodbath in AD-74 between Allan Mansoor and Leslie Daigle, in which the less conservative candidate would win.  In AD-74, Republicans comprise 42.5% of registered voters, Democrats 29.0%, and no party preference voters 23.7%.
  • Democrats feard a November bloodbath in AD-69 between Tom Daly, Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, and Paco Barragan, in which the least liberal candidate would win.  In AD-69, Democrats comprise 49.7% of registered voters, Republicans 27.5%, and no party preference voters 19.1%.

Conventional wisdom held:

  • If no Democrat filed in AD-74, Democratic voters would back Republican Leslie Daigle over Republican Allan Mansoor in both June and November, as Daigle is less conservative than Mansoor.  Republicans would squander valuable human and financial resources in an intraparty battle for AD-74, freeing Democrats to spend their resources elsewhere.  However, if a Democrat were in the AD-74 race, presumably that person would be in the top two to face off against the winner of the Mansoor-Daigle fight.
  • If no Republican filed in AD-69, Republican voters would back Democrat Tom Daly over the other three Democrats (Michele Martinez, Julio Perez, and Paco Barragan) in June, as Daly is the least liberal of the four; the Republican voters would continue to back Daly over whichever Democrat he faced in November, as Daly would still be the less liberal candidate.  Democrats would squander valuable human and financial resources in an intraparty battle for AD-69, freeing Republicans to spend their resources elsewhere.  However, if a Republican were in the AD-69 race, presumably that person would be in the top two to face off against the winner of the Daly-Martinez-Perez-Barragan fight.

For about half a week, many in OC, including yours truly, thought the Democrats’ worst nightmare had materialized: a Democrat in AD-74 and no Republican in AD-69, as Robert Rush joined the Democratic Party and entered the AD-74 race while Republican Robert Hammond withdrew from AD-69 to join the Orange County Board of Education race.

Well both party’s fears came to naught and we revert to status quo in November with likely one Democrat versus one Republican.  As my intrepid fellow blog editor Chris Emami wrote, an obscure gentleman by the name of Jose Moreno (not to be confused with Anaheim City School District Trustee Jose Moreno) filed as the sole Republican in AD-69 with barely two minutes to spare.

Robert Rush (D-74) and Jose Moreno (R-69) could spend the next three months in Siberia, and both will still be in the top two in their June races by virtue of having “Democrat” and “Republican” after their names, respectively, allowing them to advance to November, where they will be summarily destroyed by their opponent.

(In case you’re wondering, Rush has a ballot designation of “Business Owner/Accountant” and will be second on the ballot after Daigle but before Mansoor while Moreno has a ballot designation of “Orange County Eligibility Technician” and will be third on the ballot after Daly and Martinez but before Barragan and Perez.  Many voters will be left scratching their heads as to what an eligibility technician is, and if you’re one of them, here’s an explanation of what that is.)

Democrats won’t squander their resources on an intraparty AD-69 battle in November nor will Republicans squander their resources on an intraparty AD-74 battle in November.  Both parties will revert to the old rules of spending their resources against each other in November.

Former Senate Republican Leader Jim Brulte once said in reference to a San Francisco Mayoral race: “When you’re a conservative, and you’ve got a choice between a socialist and a communist, you back the socialist.”  Democrat Robert Rush has enabled the most conservative candidate to win in AD-74, and Republican Jose Moreno just enabled the most liberal candidate to win in AD-69.

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments »

Republicans Will Have A Candidate In AD 69. Or Will They???

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on March 15, 2012

Despite being sick yesterday and having to cancel most of my meetings I was stuck going to the Orange County Registrar of Voters to assist a client with filing his paperwork. As many of our readers may already know, yesterday was the close of the filing period for races that went into extension. It turns out that we had another game of “Beat The Clock” on our hands.


Republican candidate for AD 69 Jose Moreno got in the door at 4:54 PM and told the person helping him file his paperwork that he only had 20 signatures and had an associate that was bringing more signatures.

Sure enough at just a few seconds before 4:58 PM Central Committee Member Tim Whitacre ran in the door with 22 more signatures. This however left them with just 42 signatures and this is before the validation process began.

After the doors were already locked it appears that Lupe Moreno arrived and I believe she had some more signatures in her hand but I cannot be certain.

Getting 40 out of 42 signatures proven to be valid is not an easy thing to do, so it is very possible that Moreno will not actually qualify for the ballot.

With no Republican in the race it would not be a bad thing for the party as it forces a lot of Democratic Party money to be squandered in this race (Kindee Durkee would be proud). If a Republican jumps in the Democrats will not spend anything leading up to November and will focus on supporting Quirk-Silva in AD 65 and possibly even Daigle in AD 74.

We should have an answer by later today.

Posted in 69th Assembly District, 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , | 8 Comments »

Newport Beach decides to make Huntington Beach cooler place

Posted by Scott Carpenter on March 15, 2012

In a decision that can only be described as absurd, the Newport Beach City Council has unanimously decided to remove decades old fire pits from the beach. Citing complaints from residents, environmental hazards and health risks a collection of Nanny State Republicans have decided to ruin a unique recreational area of the beach.

For those readers unfamiliar with the Newport fire pits, they are located in a remote southern section away from the larger more populated main beach area. No reasonable argument can really be made for this decision other than pure government control on a local level. The fact that residents “complained” about the fire pits is even more absurd of an excuse being cited. The resident complaint excuse is not even worthy of being described by the term NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) at least traditional NIMBYs are complaining about something that will be built, not something that was constructed decades ago.

Though this decision is outrageous and I could rant for pages about reasons these fire pits should remain, there is a silver lining. As I previously mentioned, the vote was of this ban was unanimous. That means that Councilwoman Leslie Daigle gave Assemblyman Allen Mansoor further evidence why she is unfit to carry the GOP banner in the State Assembly. Daigle has earned a reputation of a big government RINO and an opportunist during her stint as an elected official, and over the course of the last few months her actions have proven that. This most recent decision is typical of the Nanny State attitudes Daigle has favored though. This leaves me grateful that Assemblyman Mansoor remains the OC GOP’s choice to represent AD 74.

Final note on this topic: While attending Concordia University in Irvine the Newport Fire Pits were a regular destination for myself and fellow Concordia (and UCI) students. While in college my LA County based friends from High School and I had an ongoing debate over what was a “cooler place” for a beach bonfire: Huntington Beach or Newport Beach. I always advocated for Newport Beach. But thanks to this recent decision I have to finally concede that Huntington is now the “cooler place”

H/T to Jack Wu for background on this piece.

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

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