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2012 Primary Election Predictions: Orange County Board of Education

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 19, 2012

This will be a fairly short post with more of an explanation than an analysis.

2 seats for the Orange Count Board of Education are contested this election. District 1 is an open seat and District 3 has an incumbent with a challenger.

Over the past couple of weeks I have been analysing each race in the June Primary and giving a prediction on these races. I am not going to do that for these races.

Custom Campaigns, the firm that is owned by myself, Chris Nguyen, and Erik Brown (The founders of this blog) is doing the consulting work for Robert Hammond in OCBE 1 and Dr. Ken Williams in OCBE 3. It would be unfair to the opponents in this race for us to analyze and pick at them on our blog. Especially since we have polling data in the Area 1 race it is important for us to focus on doing our job and not playing games on the blog.

I like both Robert Hammond and Dr. Ken Williams and hope that voters feel the same way but the opponents are not bad people and deserve the chance to run their races without having to worry about the opponents consultants bashing them on the blog they run.

My advice to voters is to look at the candidates by reading about them in the voter handbook and seeing what they say about their plans for the district. Take a look at candidate websites as well.

With that being said I am going to have to take a pass on making a prediction in either of these races.

Posted in Orange County Board of Education | 3 Comments »

OC GOP Should Intervene In Anaheim Union High School District Vacancy

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 19, 2012

Chris Nguyen posted about the vacancy on the Anaheim Union High School District Board earlier this week. He gave a great analysis of those who have thrown their hat into the ring for the appointment.

This is a difficult post to write, because I am very torn on the issue of making non-partisan seats partisan. In the case of the Anaheim Union High School District I am forced to take a stance on political intervention because it is a matter of protecting future partisan offices.

In cases where vacancies exist on local elected bodies such as City Council or School District it is most common to see an appointment process to fill the vacancy as opposed to special election. The Anaheim Union High School District has had a history of members running for and sometimes winning higher office:

Tom Daly- This former member of the Anaheim Union High School District went on to become Anaheim Mayor and then became Orange County Clerk Recorder. He is currently running for the 69th Assembly District.

Alexandria Coronado- This former School Board Trustee ended up winning a seat on the Orange County Board of Education and then later on ran against Loretta Sanchez for Congress unsuccessfully. Se got knocked off the County Board of Education this last June by David Boyd.

Thomas “Hoagy” Holguin- He ended up running for the City Council this past November and ended up losing and in the process lost his School Board seat as well.

Jordan Brandman- The next candidate in the cycle is Jordan Brandman who is currently running for the Anaheim City Council in what is sure to be a very interesting election.

With the history of candidates moving on to higher office it is imperative that the OC GOP intervene and make sure that a Republican be appointed to this seat. That may not sit well with a lot of people but from a Republican standpoint it makes sense.

In fact when the OC GOP has their endorsing convention one of the questions that pops up is whether or not the applicant for endorsement has endorsed any Democrats. I argue that voting to appoint a Democrat is far worse than endorsing one because an endorsement still requires the voters to approve of the candidate. An appointment requires between 3-5 votes to effectively elect somebody to the body.

Look at the story told by former CRA President Mike Spence:

He warned people to take on a candidate for Rio Hondo Community College District because she was a big threat to the Republican Party. Nobody really felt that threatened by this candidate during that election to a small College District. The candidate was Hilda Solis who went on to serve in the legislature, Congress, and then was appointed U.S. Secretary of Labor by President Obama.

Some solid Republicans applied for this seat and I hope that the 3 Republicans on the School Board will take this into consideration when filling the vacancy.

Posted in Anaheim Union High School District | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 3rd Supervisorial District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 18, 2012

This race is a bit close to home since I am going to be represented by the winner of this race. Having seen this race up close and personal I hope that I can pull myself out of the echo chamber enough to make a fair analysis here.

I can promise that I will be a lot less biased than HBK and The Rock of OC who have quite frankly abused their blogging privileges a bit.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat is going to potentially get ugly in the media with both candidates appearing to have a bit of disdain for each other.

Both candidates are Republicans in what is considered a very conservative seat. Party affiliation does not matter all that much in this race as no affiliation is listed on the ballot (not that it matters in this race).

The good news is that this race will be over in June, because the Prop 14 rules do not apply to this County race and with only 2 candidates on the ballot one of them is guaranteed to get over 50% of the vote.

Candidates include:

Todd Spitzer the former Supervisor and Assemblyman from Orange. He is extremely popular in Orange especially because of his strong stance on public safety issues. His humongous war chest will make it easy for him to message to voters. On the flip side he made a huge mistake voting for 3% @ 50 which is an outrageous pension liability that has plagued our state.

Deborah Pauly the current Villa Park City Councilwoman who is extremely popular in TEA Party circles. She has not had the same fundraising luck as Todd, but she appears to have a decent number of volunteers working with her. On the flip side for her she made some very disappointing comments at a rally in Yorba Linda that have quite frankly done damage to the Republican Party.

The factors at play- This one is going to unfortunately be very slanted due to fundraising, name ID, campaign experience, and support all lining up behind Todd. Had Mark Bucher jumped into this race it could have been a really big fight (Also a huge waste in Republican resources).

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that winner will be:

Todd Spitzer

Posted in 3rd Supervisorial District | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Council Colleague Rush Hill Endorses Leslie Daigle in AD74 Race

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 18, 2012

As a Republican, I am glad to see a Democrat in the AD 74 race for the same reason that I was hoping for no Republican to run in the AD 69 race. This is a post Prop 14 world and we need to realize the way that the game works now.

I have predicted that Robert Rush will defeat Leslie Daigle for the number 2 slot in the AD 74 June election (Read more about this race here).

Leslie Daigle has apparently realized this as well. She issued a press release that could best be described as a shot across the bow to the Robert Rush campaign. See the press release here: Read the rest of this entry »

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 74th Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 18, 2012

This race will also be an interesting one, but I will go out on a limb and say that it will be less interesting than people think.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat would normally be considered another Republican stronghold with a 13 point registration advantage but based on the results of the 2008 election I will hold off judgement until after 2012. Democrats have just a 6 point registration gap above DTS voters. In 2008 Democrats did have som major victories in the new AD 74 where Obama won and Proposition 8 failed.

Incumbent Assemblyman Allan Mansoor currently holds this seat and his running for his first re-election. He is backed by the current Republican establishment along with most of the grassroots and volunteer organization. I have met Chad Morgan who is running his race and he is a nice guy.

His challengers include:

Leslie Daigle a Council Member/Businesswoman from Newport Beach who is running as a Republican. My interactions with her have never been pleasant.

Robert Rush a Business Owner/Accountant who is running as a Democrat.

The factors at play- Alan Mansoor has incumbency, name ID, and party affiliation on his side. I don’t buy the argument that his name ID is low in the new parts of the district thus making him vulnerable.

The anti-incumbency vote will be split between Rush and Daigle but Rush has the advantage of being an alternative to a Republican for Democrats and DTS voters.

Daigle has high name ID on Newport Beach, but I just think that most of the obstacles in this race seem to hurt her more than Mansoor or Rush. It appears that Daigle is not trilled with Rush being in this race, stay tuned for a press release from her that I will post in a bit.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Allan Mansoor & Robert Rush

Posted in 74th Assembly District | Tagged: , , | 1 Comment »

Does Santorum Dropping Out Help Or Hurt California Republicans?

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 17, 2012

As most if not all of our readers are aware, Rick Santorum last week announced that he was suspending his campaign. Translation: The numbers didn’t look good and so he felt like it was time to drop out. Many Republicans especially Romney supporters applauded the decision with the feeling that the Republican party would benefit from this. May take is a bit different…

I may be putting a bit more thought than necessary into this, but I question whether or not Santorum dropping out helps or hurts California Republicans in June. Let me first state that I have been a Romney supporter from the beginning of this race.

Santorum dropping out though essentially ends the primary thus making Romney the nominee. This may sound great to some Republicans but if you are in California a state that has not voted yet this is bad news.

In a post Prop 14 world it is important to make sure that turnout is as high as possible in the June election. Even if the race is between 2 people (a proverbial beauty contest) winning in June shows strength for a November fight.

A decided election for Romney will greatly drive down turnout for Republicans in June. This will potentially hurt candidates like Allan Mansoor, Chris Norby, and the Republicans running for the 47th Congressional District.

In the Allan Mansoor race a lower Republican turnout could make it a lot easier for Leslie Daigle to capture the votes necessary to advance to the run-off. My reasoning is that with a lowered threshold of votes Daigle could spend the right amount of money to pick-off enough voters to advance.

With Chris Norby, even though he advances to the November election regardless of the outcome, it would benefit him to win big. The reasoning here is because if Quirk-Silva gets beat big in June the Democrats will not pour in resources to her race.

In CD 47 the Republican turnout will likely be compared to the Democrats turnout and if Republicans compete well in the numbers game expect big resources to be put in by the NRCC. This one will be tough even with NRCC resources, so Republicans should cross their fingers.

In conclusion, Santorum dropping out is good for Mitt Romney and the Republican prospects in November, but for California Republicans in June maybe not quite as great.

For the sake of Republican turnout I hope that Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul stick around up until at least June 7th.

 

Posted in California, National | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 72nd Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 17, 2012

The race in the 72nd Assembly District will be by far the most competitive race in Orange County for June. This race features 3 Republicans that could spend a lot of money to win this seat.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat is currently a safe Republican seat with an 11 point registration advantage. DTS voters also lean pretty far to the right in this neck of the woods. This seat is a more beach heavy version of the old AD 68 that was represented by Van ran and then Allan Mansoor. Republicans have one every major race here both in 2008 and 2010.

The main reason that it is such a fight is because the race is for an open seat in the Assembly. Jim Silva who currently lives in this area is termed out. The Democrats also appear to think that they have a shot at this seat and are getting behind Joe Dovinh.

The challengers include:

Albert Ayala a Retired Police Commander who is running as a Democrat.

Joe Dovinh a City Commissioner/Businessperson who has experience running for office after having run for the old 68th Assembly District in the primary back in 2010. He is running as a Democrat.

Travis Allen a Small Business Owner that is running as a Republican.

Troy Edgar the Los Alamitos Mayor and wealthy businessman. He was initially planning on running for the 49th Congressional District but with Matt Harper leaning towards dropping out of this race, Edgar made the right choice to jump in.

Long Pham the other elected official running who is a member of the Orange County Board of Education and also a candidate for the Assembly back in 2010 in the primary for the old AD 68.

The factors at play- Troy Edgar has the most money, supporters, and n my honest opinion the best campaign team behind him on this race. He is the clear favorite, and it will take a miraculous effort to get him into second place let alone out of the top 2.

Vietnamese voters will be split between Long Pham and Joe Dovinh regardless of the fact that one is a Republican and the other a Democrat.

With multiple candidates on both sides party affiliation becomes a factor with Democrats likely to take the number 2 slot and Republicans likely to take the number 1 slot.

Fundraising numbers were not great for anybody in this race other than Troy Edgar. Personal loans do not count unless it is over $100,000 as that is the number that can be returned to a candidate.

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Troy Edgar & Joe Dovinh

Posted in 72nd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

2012 Primary Election Predictions: 69th Assembly District

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 17, 2012

We move on to a contested Assembly race that is in the heart of Orange County. Contrary to popular belief, we here at OC Political are not supporting Tom Daly. However, the fact does exist that in a post Prop 14 world it would have been better to see the Democrats fight each other in June and then continue to fight each other in November.

Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.

This seat is currently the lone Democratic stronghold with a 22 point registration advantage. Also, in 2008 and 2010 Republicans lost all major races in this district with the exception of Proposition 8 which passed by a large margin.

This is an open seat due to incumbent Assemblyman Jose Solorio being termed out for this office. With the amount of challengers in this race and labor coming in heavy for their chosen candidate it could be a race with a lot of money spent.

The candidates include:

Francisco “Paco” Barragan an Accountant/Businessman/Auditor who is running as a Democrat.

Tom Daly the Orange County Clerk-Recorder who is running as a Democrat.

Michele Martinez a Santa Ana Councilwoman who is running as a Democrat.

Julio Perez a Non-Proft Workforce Director who is running as a Democrat

Jose “Joe” Moreno an Orange County Eligibility Technician who is running as a Republican.

The factors at play- All but one candidate is Latino which will heavily split the ethnic vote thus helping Tom Daly. The party affiliation vote is split amongst 4 Democrats which benefits Jose Moreno more than anybody else.

In the end I think the factors at play make this a pretty easy one to call for me, however, this will possibly change after all of the candidates start running a real campaign.

Ranking the candidate in order of who I personally would rather have in the Assembly based on how they would vote:

1. Jose Moreno
2. Francisco Barragan
3. Tom Daly
4. Michele Martinez
5. Julio Perez

Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:

Tom Daly & Jose Moreno

Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

Anaheim Mailbox: Larry Larsen Is Back

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 16, 2012

I received this in my mailbox this past week and wanted to share it with our readers:

Needless to say this is getting really old. I am sure that OCEA has some kind of master plan, but targeting 2 Councilmembers that are both not up for re-election until 2014. They are going to make a strong play for the open seats on the Council, but I am interested to know what they do next.

This goes to show, just how slow that mail is for the primary when the majority of pieces that Chris Nguyen and I have both seen are for a race that doesn’t even exist yet. Hopefully things start to pick up here with absentees set to drop shortly.

Posted in Anaheim, Mail | Tagged: | 1 Comment »

Useless, Meaningless, Ridiculous Campaigns In June

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 16, 2012

One of the major flaws that I have found in Prop 14 is the way t moves candidates from June to November. As an example, if Troy Edgar was running for Supervisor with the same field that he had in the Assembly race, and received over 50% of the vote he would win and no November election would take place.


(Infamous Abel Maldonado)

However, if that same race was to take place for a seat in the California State Assembly the race under the new Prop 14 rules even if a candidate received only 1 vote they would still advance to November in a head to head race. This therefore creates a number of races that essentially are glorified polls in June.

Races that would fall under this category include:

SD 29- A race between State Senator and Workers Rights Attorney Greg Diamond. I am hoping that Huff wins this race based on his policy decisions (Even though he is a bit of a squish on certain issues.). Greg Diamond is an Orange Juice blogger, a very smart man (he will let you know it, too) with an education that would rival my fellow blogger Chris Nguyen, and his best quality is that he reads this blog.

SD 37- This race is between sitting Senator Mimi Walters and perennial candidate Steve Young. Walter s is running for reelection after having defeated Harry Sidhu in her first race for Senate. Steve Young appears willing to run for any seat as I believe this is the 3rd campaign I have seen him run.

AD 55- Curt Hagman against Greg Fritchle. This race is a true yawner as it involves a district that covers Orange, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino. Hagman is a former Chino Hills City Councilman that defeated Larry Dick for this seat back in 2008. He is now running for his last term in the Assembly. (Did I mention that I am happy to have Don Wagner as my Assemblyman).

AD 65- Chris Norby is running against Sharon Quirk-Silva for this seat. This race actually does matter in June, despite the fact that both candidates will advance to November. If Quirk-Silva does well in June, we could see some more Democratic resources be poured into this race. It is important for Norby to crush her in June.

AD 68- Assemblyman Don Wagner is running against perennial candidate Christina Avalos. The new AD 68 is pretty awesome and a huge step up for Anaheim Hills from the old AD 60. Wagner is in probably the safest seat for any Republican Assembly member in California, although I may be wrong on this particular statistic.

AD 73- This one will be interesting to watch in terms of the mail that gets sent out with Assemblywoman Diane Harkey facing off against infamous Capistrano Unified School District teacher James Corbett. The question comes down to whether or not mail gets sent out in June, or if it is held off until the November election.

1st Supervisorial District-  Some of you may think that you have caught me slipping up, as this race will be decided in June. However read the title and you will understand. This race will be a good one to chuckle over. Rocco is best known for his conspiracy that he is part of a murder plot concocted by Albertsons, Smokecraft Sausage, and Kodak.

I would say to sit back and enjoy watching the races to see who wins, but in this case nobody actually wins. This is with the obvious exception of the 1st Supervisorial District.

Posted in 29th Senate District, 37th Senate District, 55th Assembly District, 65th Assembly District, 68th Assembly District, 73rd Assembly District | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

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