2012 Primary Election Predictions: 69th Assembly District
Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 17, 2012
We move on to a contested Assembly race that is in the heart of Orange County. Contrary to popular belief, we here at OC Political are not supporting Tom Daly. However, the fact does exist that in a post Prop 14 world it would have been better to see the Democrats fight each other in June and then continue to fight each other in November.
Credit goes to Meridian Pacific for posting these maps on their website.
This seat is currently the lone Democratic stronghold with a 22 point registration advantage. Also, in 2008 and 2010 Republicans lost all major races in this district with the exception of Proposition 8 which passed by a large margin.
This is an open seat due to incumbent Assemblyman Jose Solorio being termed out for this office. With the amount of challengers in this race and labor coming in heavy for their chosen candidate it could be a race with a lot of money spent.
The candidates include:
Francisco “Paco” Barragan an Accountant/Businessman/Auditor who is running as a Democrat.
Tom Daly the Orange County Clerk-Recorder who is running as a Democrat.
Michele Martinez a Santa Ana Councilwoman who is running as a Democrat.
Julio Perez a Non-Proft Workforce Director who is running as a Democrat
Jose “Joe” Moreno an Orange County Eligibility Technician who is running as a Republican.
The factors at play- All but one candidate is Latino which will heavily split the ethnic vote thus helping Tom Daly. The party affiliation vote is split amongst 4 Democrats which benefits Jose Moreno more than anybody else.
In the end I think the factors at play make this a pretty easy one to call for me, however, this will possibly change after all of the candidates start running a real campaign.
Ranking the candidate in order of who I personally would rather have in the Assembly based on how they would vote:
1. Jose Moreno
2. Francisco Barragan
3. Tom Daly
4. Michele Martinez
5. Julio Perez
Looking at all the factors at play in this district I believe that the 2 candidates advancing to November will be:
Tom Daly & Jose Moreno