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Does Santorum Dropping Out Help Or Hurt California Republicans?

Posted by Former Blogger Chris Emami on April 17, 2012

As most if not all of our readers are aware, Rick Santorum last week announced that he was suspending his campaign. Translation: The numbers didn’t look good and so he felt like it was time to drop out. Many Republicans especially Romney supporters applauded the decision with the feeling that the Republican party would benefit from this. May take is a bit different…

I may be putting a bit more thought than necessary into this, but I question whether or not Santorum dropping out helps or hurts California Republicans in June. Let me first state that I have been a Romney supporter from the beginning of this race.

Santorum dropping out though essentially ends the primary thus making Romney the nominee. This may sound great to some Republicans but if you are in California a state that has not voted yet this is bad news.

In a post Prop 14 world it is important to make sure that turnout is as high as possible in the June election. Even if the race is between 2 people (a proverbial beauty contest) winning in June shows strength for a November fight.

A decided election for Romney will greatly drive down turnout for Republicans in June. This will potentially hurt candidates like Allan Mansoor, Chris Norby, and the Republicans running for the 47th Congressional District.

In the Allan Mansoor race a lower Republican turnout could make it a lot easier for Leslie Daigle to capture the votes necessary to advance to the run-off. My reasoning is that with a lowered threshold of votes Daigle could spend the right amount of money to pick-off enough voters to advance.

With Chris Norby, even though he advances to the November election regardless of the outcome, it would benefit him to win big. The reasoning here is because if Quirk-Silva gets beat big in June the Democrats will not pour in resources to her race.

In CD 47 the Republican turnout will likely be compared to the Democrats turnout and if Republicans compete well in the numbers game expect big resources to be put in by the NRCC. This one will be tough even with NRCC resources, so Republicans should cross their fingers.

In conclusion, Santorum dropping out is good for Mitt Romney and the Republican prospects in November, but for California Republicans in June maybe not quite as great.

For the sake of Republican turnout I hope that Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul stick around up until at least June 7th.

 

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